sshow bob

Wrong number?

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Why are we talking about mortality as a function of reported deaths over reported infections? A look at deaths over recoveries is much more startling. Can someone explain why that ratio isn't what we ought to be worried about?

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2 minutes ago, sshow bob said:

Why are we talking about mortality as a function of reported deaths over reported infections? A look at deaths over recoveries is much more startling. Can someone explain why that ratio isn't what we ought to be worried about?

Fear sells?

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US shows 2215 deaths and  2248 recoveries. Why aren't we talking about that 47% negative outcome?

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Just now, sshow bob said:

US shows 2215 deaths and  2248 recoveries. Why aren't we talking about that 47% negative outcome?

Maybe because deaths are reported immediately and recoveries take a long time. Look at the numbers in process.

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My math was faulty, sorry. It's a little over 50% in the US. Ish, I sure hope it's a reporting issue!

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Eventually I believe the stats will be sorted out, my personal opinion is there are lots of cases not being reported especially in areas where the staff is overwhelmed.  An article I read earlier included interviews with some staff who basically said the same thing.  Treatment would be taking precedent over stats. When I let folks know 2 weeks ago I would be self distancing I got those looks - you know, why? I mean in this area there were hardly any positives, of course there was almost zero testing.

Until testing catches up everything is suspect.  I have seen some posts from those questioning China (whom I believe who absolutely try to minimize their data) but it's the same issue everywhere. Cases where someone comes in and dies before a test is done? Nope, save the test for those who can be saved and treated.

Testing Testing Testing - is this thing on?

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Clinical recovery data is complicated because it varies depending on which is the recording/treatment authority. 
 

at our hospital occupational health? Clinicians must be 2 weeks+ 2 consecutive negative tests. 
 

based on SARS exp, the virus can also be detected in the small intestines AFTER respiratory symptoms have cleared - making fecal oral transmission a continued possibility. 
 

also something primary care docs will emphasize more than ccm - the patient can be discharged and sent home? But with lung scarring and continued risk factors? Be vulnerable to other issues and risk factors further down the line. 
 

recovered from SARS-CoV-2 - died from non-specific bacteria lung infection. 

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47 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

Eventually I believe the stats will be sorted out, my personal opinion is there are lots of cases not being reported especially in areas where the staff is overwhelmed.  An article I read earlier included interviews with some staff who basically said the same thing.  Treatment would be taking precedent over stats. When I let folks know 2 weeks ago I would be self distancing I got those looks - you know, why? I mean in this area there were hardly any positives, of course there was almost zero testing.

Until testing catches up everything is suspect.  I have seen some posts from those questioning China (whom I believe who absolutely try to minimize their data) but it's the same issue everywhere. Cases where someone comes in and dies before a test is done? Nope, save the test for those who can be saved and treated.

Testing Testing Testing - is this thing on?

Testing really just seems to be done to quell the public. What good does it do? Just keep your ass quarantined and this will blow over. Now testing people who are recovering or need critical care makes sense.

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You need good testing to do contact tracing. Without it unless you’re getting total compliance with 4 week quarantine- the disease is going bounce back when ppl who don’t know they are carriers continue to infect others in public space. 

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Very true, you can only compare the % of cases that have had an outcome which is either recover or die.  At the moment the ratio in the US is 40% die and 60% recover.  Even if the recovery number is double due to under reporting 25% die.  China's death rate is 4% but I think there is a lot they aren't telling us.

At the current infection rate in one weeks time there will be over 1 million infected in the US.  That would result in at least 250,000 dead.  I just dont get how fucking blase Trump is about this

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I have seen no increase in recoveries for days in Australia, and it was written (somewhere) that not all health authorities are releasing and/or updating recovery figures. I guess because if not in hospital then until retesting is done and publicised then they are still active cases.

To me the number I look at is death as a percentage of diagnosed cases, as to me that is the only ratio that is fully and actively updated daily (at least) These deaths are then broken down by age.

As of now according to worlometers.info - Australia has 3969 cases and 16 deaths. The total recovered of 170 has been that for almost a week or so. So our death ratio is around 0.04%, however we have 23 serious/critical cases.

The US has 123,776 cases and 2229 deaths = 1.8%, but 2666 serious/critical.

Canada - 5655 cases, 60 deaths, 120 serious/critical - death rate of 1%.

The world average at this point is 664,672 cases and 30,892 deaths or 4.6%.

Figures on worldometers.info are updated very regularly.

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, mccroc said:

I have seen no increase in recoveries for days in Australia, and it was written (somewhere) that not all health authorities are releasing and/or updating recovery figures. I guess because if not in hospital then until retesting is done and publicised then they are still active cases.

To me the number I look at is death as a percentage of diagnosed cases, as to me that is the only ratio that is fully and actively updated daily (at least) These deaths are then broken down by age.

As of now according to worlometers.info - Australia has 3969 cases and 16 deaths. The total recovered of 170 has been that for almost a week or so. So our death ratio is around 0.04%, however we have 23 serious/critical cases.

The US has 123,776 cases and 2229 deaths = 1.8%, but 2666 serious/critical.

Canada - 5655 cases, 60 deaths, 120 serious/critical - death rate of 1%.

The world average at this point is 664,672 cases and 30,892 deaths or 4.6%.

Figures on worldometers.info are updated very regularly.

 

 

 

I like deaths/ million people and daily deaths as a gauge of severity,   There is a lag from first illness to death of course, but it’s the data least affected by testing policy.   A coworkers mother was taken to hospital, spent four days there, was sent home Friday, and Saturday morning the diagnosis was still pending,   My brother (biomedical shipping) in Indiana sent a coughing febrile employee home Friday.   He followed up by phone,   The guy had trouble finding a place to test him, decided it was too expensive, and figured he’d see if he felt better Monday or a Tuesday.    Eye roll.    Testing in the states is so poorly done it just isn’t useful.  

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On 3/28/2020 at 5:54 PM, d'ranger said:

Eventually I believe the stats will be sorted out, my personal opinion is there are lots of cases not being reported especially in areas where the staff is overwhelmed.  An article I read earlier included interviews with some staff who basically said the same thing.  Treatment would be taking precedent over stats. When I let folks know 2 weeks ago I would be self distancing I got those looks - you know, why? I mean in this area there were hardly any positives, of course there was almost zero testing.

Until testing catches up everything is suspect.  I have seen some posts from those questioning China (whom I believe who absolutely try to minimize their data) but it's the same issue everywhere. Cases where someone comes in and dies before a test is done? Nope, save the test for those who can be saved and treated.

Testing Testing Testing - is this thing on?

Yah, what d'ranger says.  Testing, Testing, Testing and if still confused how about TESTING??

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On 3/29/2020 at 9:50 PM, Lark said:

I like deaths/ million people and daily deaths as a gauge of severity,   There is a lag from first illness to death of course, but it’s the data least affected by testing policy.   A coworkers mother was taken to hospital, spent four days there, was sent home Friday, and Saturday morning the diagnosis was still pending,   My brother (biomedical shipping) in Indiana sent a coughing febrile employee home Friday.   He followed up by phone,   The guy had trouble finding a place to test him, decided it was too expensive, and figured he’d see if he felt better Monday or a Tuesday.    Eye roll.    Testing in the states is so poorly done it just isn’t useful.  

And a reminder that the dice have more then one side, the mother was admitted with respiratory distress but it wasn’t coronavirus.  There are plenty of other things trying to kill us.   

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Keep in mind folks, only a fraction of a percent of people are being tested, and those tests are administered based on need (exposure, symptoms, other medical issues). When you look at deaths/recoveries based on "cases", that's only the people who have been tested. Meaningless statistics.

A much better way to predict what we're in for is to look at deaths. The daily death count is probably a bit more accurate, as regardless of whether a person was tested or not, they died of the virus.

So here's how you do that. Each death contracted the virus ~28 days ago. The prevailing figure for death rate in the US right now is .6%. Yesterday, 558 people died of the virus in the US. That means 28 days ago 558/.006= 93,000 people contracted the virus. You can run these numbers back to the first reported death in the US the beginning of March, then extrapolate that out to predict what's ahead of us. Anyone care to take a stab at this and tell us what you come up with?

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In most places the only deaths being reported are those in hospitals. Elderly dying in care facilities and at home are not being recorded. Many of them are not even being tested to confirm they had Coronavirus, so they add to neither 'case' or 'fatality' statistics'. With test kits is such short supply for the sick, they're not being wasted on corpses. 

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11 minutes ago, Mirror16 said:

In most places the only deaths being reported are those in hospitals. Elderly dying in care facilities and at home are not being recorded. Many of them are not even being tested to confirm they had Coronavirus, so they add to neither 'case' or 'fatality' statistics'. With test kits is such short supply for the sick, they're not being wasted on corpses. 

That’s not true at all. County and state level DOH and medical examiners have to provide a COD and the clinical symptoms are fairly clear cut. It is being tabulated. 

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On 3/31/2020 at 8:24 PM, Miffy said:

That’s not true at all. County and state level DOH and medical examiners have to provide a COD and the clinical symptoms are fairly clear cut. It is being tabulated. 

Perhaps in your state and county but certainly not in mine (Hamilton County, Tennessee) and from media reports not in most places in the United States. NOBODY is making the COVID-19 statistics here if they haven't actually tested positive for it. And test kits are in such short supply that they're not even being used on people with the full set of symptoms.There are other criteria to be met before anyone can be considered for a test -  specifically also having traveled recently from a more infected part of the country/world OR having been in close proximity with someone who has tested positive. And, again, only deaths occurring in hospitals here are being counted. Cases and fatalities are being systematically under-reported with the connivance of health authorities.

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