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How Can We Interact Normally Again

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The contagious disease for which none of us has immunity.
I do not understand why anybody thinks we get to go back to normal until we have an effective vaccine. 
Here is what I do understand: 
Somebody got the disease and it started spreading as every contagious disease in history has spread. 
A whole bunch of folks got sick. Some died. 
We do not have a vaccination so we started  trying to keep the infected folks away from the healthy folks. 
In some places that separation has pretty much stopped the spread of the disease.
In some places the sick folks are mostly getting over the disease or are already dead. 

So now what??
If we resume our normal ways and go back to interacting what happens? 
If somebody still has the contagious disease anywhere on the planet and interacts with healthy people  I don’t understand any reason we aren’t right back at square one .
OK, maybe those who have lived through it will have the right antibodies to be immune but the billions of us who didn’t get sick and die in round one are still defenseless. 
In fact, even with our very best efforts to find all the carriers, there will still be people all over the planet carrying and ready to spread  the infectious disease.

Summary: I do not see how we can get back to normal until there is an effective vaccine 

Are there any epidemiologists among the readers who can explain why I am wrong??

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This is highly difficult to digest if you prefer money and power over your neighbor's life.

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I don't know either, Gouv, but with many virus illnesses, it is my understanding that you are not permanently infectious. So you get <insert viral infection here> and you are sick for <"x" days" and are infectious for <"y" days>, so  after that time you can interact with Joe Public again... I think the current problem is that nobody knows what the "y" number is yet

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There are multiple vaccine development efforts going on around the world. Also there’s various anti-RNA drugs being trialed. 

If the anti-RNA drug is effective, essentially the strategy would be prophylactically administer it around positives - like how we eliminated smallpox. 

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13 minutes ago, Miffy said:

There are multiple vaccine development efforts going on around the world. Also there’s various anti-RNA drugs being trialed. 

If the anti-RNA drug is effective, essentially the strategy would be prophylactically administer it around positives - like how we eliminated smallpox. 

I believe you are talking about a vaccine based around RNA rather than a vaccine based on recombinant of the virus.

The virologists have alread mapped the DNA of CV19 now they are working to find out which bit of the ribbon produces the right anti bodies in us without making us sick.  The DNA was done in world record breaking time. A phase 1 trial will commencing in April, about 6 months faster than I hav ever seen. If this hectic pace continues, they will be in phase 3 by this fall , providing small batch boutique production to phase 3 triallists, likely health care an d emergency responders  If that goes well, commercial scale vaccines could be available as soon as Fall 2021.

Fingers crossed.

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No I was talking about antiviral drugs intended to interfere with viral RNA reproduction/shedding. 
 

I think in the near term it is less risky and has the potential to be effective 

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The antivirals are the only super game changer---if they can be widely availabr in under 3 months

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To go back to Gouv's original question about recurrence, yes, this is a big problem.

We are in limbo until a reliable vaccine can be developed, tested, approved, manufactured in vast volume and globally distributed.

Until then, many experts predict there will be several more phases of infection, distribution and deaths.

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It will all be fine. Just have to ramp up production of these a bit. You can interact all you want. Mandatory respirator not pictured.

Bizarre-body-condom-on-sale-in-second-ha

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12 hours ago, hasher said:

This is highly difficult to digest if you prefer money and power over your neighbor's life.

Last night, John Oliver said if everyone kept a safe distance from everyone else for two weeks, the virus would die off.  Don't know where he got that but if that was correct, we all know a certain percent of the population prefers profit over people.

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22 minutes ago, Jules said:

Last night, John Oliver said if everyone kept a safe distance from everyone else for two weeks, the virus would die off.  Don't know where he got that but if that was correct, we all know a certain percent of the population prefers profit over people.

While true in principle, there is simply no way to achieve that without the kind of lockdown that Wuhan endured (two months of absolutely no movement, everyone truly staying at home, an amazing achievement for a city of 11m). I don't see that happening in the US (it sure isn't happening in Illinois were the lockdown is mostly voluntary), it clearly did not happen in Europe, and no way it can happen in my home country of South Africa despite their best efforts (vast numbers of people live crowded in shacks cheek-by-jowl, in poverty so extreme they cannot possible not try to go out to work or they will starve). Hence until we have a vaccine, I agree with the Gouv, we will all have to get this virus and hopefully survive it. 

There are many ways to build vaccines and they are all being tried (the most effective vaccines are "killed" or attenuated versions of the virus, more modern approaches are to engineer some of the surface-protein-encoding genes from the virus into a benign virus, and newer methods involve injections with RNA or even DNA constructs that encode those proteins, although the latter so far do not seem as effective), but as noted above, all take a long time to develop and test. (Just think about how you have to do phase III trials on a vaccine, you have to vaccinate thousands of vulnerable people, e.g. nurses, and compare their infection rate months later with a control group who don't get the vaccine).

As for anti-vaccine drugs, I cannot be optimistic given we have heard nothing from China about efficacy. They had 80,000 cases to try various drugs on, and no news is forthcoming. The US has more than enough cases and perhaps more experiments underway, so hopefully I am wrong about this. Obviously an effective anti-viral drug or drug combination would turn the tide till we get various vaccines. But a lot of people are going to die all over the world before that happens, and I happen to be in the more vulnerable category. Hence all I, and everyone else, can do for now is absolutely minimize my exposure to other people.

In the interim we do need a way to identify and recognize people who have survived the virus and hence are immune so they can go back to work and get things stabilized, but I don't know how to do that on a national scale. A lovely big golden mark in the center of the forehead would help, but also might be faked by bad actors.

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22 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

In the interim we do need a way to identify and recognize people who have survived the virus and hence are immune so they can go back to work and get things stabilized, but I don't know how to do that on a national scale. A lovely big golden mark in the center of the forehead would help, but also might be faked by bad actors.

One other thing that struck me last night was when Oliver pointed out that what we are doing now will be just as or more costly, economically, than doing a complete shut down for a couple of weeks.  That shutdown would, of course, have to be absolute, which we know will never happen. 

But when you look at the half-assed way we are going about this - waiting until the outbreak in a given area is extremely severe before shutting everything down - it will only prolong the economic damage, sort of like a drip, drip type of effect.  And it will allow the virus to continue to proliferate.

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I don't seem to be able to edit my post above, but realized the scenario I presented was for Phase II tests of a vaccine, Phase III tests would be even longer to check for longer-term side effects. Perhaps in light of the urgency, we will have to forego Phase III trials.

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Mass proliferation is the plan.  Let folk get infected and develop immunity, with a socially and politically acceptable death rate. The half assed act is just an act, but being honest and saying you are going to loose loved ones, but it's for the good of the country, does not poll well.

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4 minutes ago, maxstaylock said:

Mass proliferation is the plan.  Let folk get infected and develop immunity, with a socially and politically acceptable death rate. The half assed act is just an act, but being honest and saying you are going to loose loved ones, but it's for the good of the country, does not poll well.

This assumes a level of competence, planning, and control that clearly doesn't exist. 

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Ok, so not completely an act.  They 'plan to fail', because the alternative is a longer, more economically damaging shutdown, lasting 6 months or more.  What is the point of saving lives from coronavirus, only to loose them to winter starvation?

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