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Old Yeller

Medical Professionals: A Dissenting Opinion

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Thanks. I needed a chuckle this morning. 

Some real classics in there...

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We should be asking questions like “How did you find out this virus was dangerous?”, “How was it before?”, “Didn’t we have the same thing last year?”, “Is it even something new?”

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If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average.

 

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I guess all the bodies stacking up in the course it three weeks is something “medical experts” who never work the front lines would not notice. 

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What absolutely kills me is all these “skeptics” who cherry-pick whatever datapoint they have, some shitty fringe publication that takes a random opinion from 5 weeks ago - and just conveniently ignores what’s been going on in Italy, Spain, US. 
 

I get it -  a lot of people want to wishful thinking everyone else back to work and boost their stock portfolio. 
 

im sorry folks - it isn’t happening cuz you’re not gonna be able to get around the fact that millions of people are becoming ill - even if the CURRENT death toll is below the aggregate annual flu; it is going to be 10x higher compressed in 3 months if we don’t do something about it. 

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This was recorded I believe on March 27 (the link was posted above). The point is that not everyone in the medical field agrees about the virus or the response to it. These people are hardly “idiots”. 

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Disagreement is great. Alternative viewpoints are interesting and often if not always worth considering. 

It's just kind of funny how wrong some of it is, a couple of weeks later. 

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28 minutes ago, Miffy said:

What absolutely kills me is all these “skeptics” who cherry-pick whatever datapoint they have, some shitty fringe publication that takes a random opinion from 5 weeks ago - and just conveniently ignores what’s been going on in Italy, Spain, US. 
 

I get it -  a lot of people want to wishful thinking everyone else back to work and boost their stock portfolio. 
 

im sorry folks - it isn’t happening cuz you’re not gonna be able to get around the fact that millions of people are becoming ill - even if the CURRENT death toll is below the aggregate annual flu; it is going to be 10x higher compressed in 3 months if we don’t do something about it. 

In Italy, 2016-2017 influenza like illness killed 43,000 more than "expected".  Currently, 15,000 Italians have died of COVID 19, and the death rate has been declining.   Nobody  knows where it will actually end up, but just stating, as a fact, that it will get "10X higher", is, in the words of the Dude Lebowski....."Just like, your opinion, man......."     

And here is the non-cherry picked scientific article that my numbers come from....read it yourself.      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

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If you looked at the paper, the avg influenza death was 15,000 per annum during the entire study period. 
 

that’s with vaccination being available with no lockdown during the course of an entire year. 
 

Italy is currently at 15,000 deaths - with full scale lockdown. You guys are being absurd. In a timespan of approximately 5 weeks. 

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58 minutes ago, Old Yeller said:

This was recorded I believe on March 27 (the link was posted above). The point is that not everyone in the medical field agrees about the virus or the response to it. These people are hardly “idiots”. 

Watch what happens at 11 -13 second mark.

Look who funded that shit. Hoover Institution is a Trump apologist foundation.

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"We should be asking questions like “How did you find out this virus was dangerous?”, “How was it before?”, “Didn’t we have the same thing last year?”, “Is it even something new? "

We should be asking what utter moron could think of something so stupid. The REAL theme of this should be: You peasants are costing the wrong people money and we don't like it and also couldn't care less if you live or die.

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No no, these are legit questions.

"How did you find out this virus was dangerous?" - People died. Quite a few. 

"How was it before?" - People died of other things, but not this. 

"Didn’t we have the same thing last year?" - No

“Is it even something new? " - Yeah, hence the name "novel". Can you say "novel"? Very good!

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5 minutes ago, DustyDreamer said:

No no, these are legit questions.

"How did you find out this virus was dangerous?" - People died. Quite a few. 

"How was it before?" - People died of other things, but not this. 

"Didn’t we have the same thing last year?" - No

“Is it even something new? " - Yeah, hence the name "novel". Can you say "novel"? Very good!

Idiot doesn't even realize minor changes have big effects.

Cowpox - mildly annoying to people and cows.

99% the same Smallpox - Not sure about cows, but kills a lot of people. So close to Cowpox that having one gives you immunity to the other,. You go change just one little thing....

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It is the same form of communication offered by flat earth, alternatives medicine, conspiracy theory and 45 quacks. 
 

“I don’t know anything I’m just asking questions” innocently framed to avoid the real facts but raise “skeptic” notions in dumb people. It is like how Trump is the dumb poor person’s idea of a self-made rich person. 

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Is cyanide bad for you? Well I have heard different things. Cyanide has existed for a long time and I haven't heard of entire nations dying all at once from it. How bad can it be? Opinions seem to differ.

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I made the mistake of looking at some of the Hoover Institution articles. E.g. https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-isnt-pandemic

" It is highly unlikely that there will ever be a repetition of the explosive situation in Wuhan, where air quality is poorer and smoking rates are higher."

So here ya go, being all hard-nosed about "data", allegedly. But that doesn't quite work, so we'll throw in some more assumptions to make it all fit our premise better. 

"The first point is to target interventions where needed, toward high-risk populations, including older people and other people with health conditions that render them more susceptible to disease. But the current organized panic in the United States does not seem justified on the best reading of the data. In dealing with this point, it is critical to note that the rapid decline in the incidence of new cases and death in China suggests that cases in Italy will not continue to rise exponentially over the next several weeks."

Yeah. BECAUSE THEY LOCKED EVERYTHING DOWN. "We don't need to act because look, when we acted it got better"

Holy fuck.

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IF you look at Italy Spain and now New York City...

I want to go interview that dolt RIGHT NOW and see what he says NOW. Because if he is actually a doctor....

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The other thing left out is those that get it, become sick, and "recover" will still end up with major lung issues for a long time.  

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1 hour ago, Miffy said:

If you looked at the paper, the avg influenza death was 15,000 per annum during the entire study period. 
 

that’s with vaccination being available with no lockdown during the course of an entire year. 
 

Italy is currently at 15,000 deaths - with full scale lockdown. You guys are being absurd. In a timespan of approximately 5 weeks. 

I looked.....I was referencing INFLUENZA-LIKE ILLNESS for which there is no vaccination.....and the numbers were "excess deaths", i.e. deaths above the normal expected range

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In the USA (yeah!) we now have Peter Navarro deciding that the hydrochoroloquine is effective and safe - and you ask why? I mean what are his medical/scientific qualifications you ask? Well, according to him he is a Social Scientist, has  a PhD so there.  what could possibly go wrong.

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4 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

In the USA (yeah!) we now have Peter Navarro deciding that the hydrochoroloquine is effective and safe - and you ask why? I mean what are his medical/scientific qualifications you ask? Well, according to him he is a Social Scientist, has  a PhD so there.  what could possibly go wrong.

How about these guys?  https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/

But look, someone working for Trump said it might be a good idea, so you should probably not bother with it if you get sick.....

 

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6 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

In the USA (yeah!) we now have Peter Navarro deciding that the hydrochoroloquine is effective and safe - and you ask why? I mean what are his medical/scientific qualifications you ask? Well, according to him he is a Social Scientist, has  a PhD so there.  what could possibly go wrong.


folks associated with the administration recently took heavy financial interest in the manufacturer and is pushing for creating a federal stockpile for no purpose. 
 

With SARS-CoV-2 I can probably create a drug trial for sugar pills and claim after treatment- 100% of my patients returned home without dying.
 

I’m just not telling you I hand picked my patients and my test wasn’t double blind and I can’t get it published in any established journals except random online quack sites with shitty ads. 

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Just now, A.M.S. said:

How about these guys?  https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/

But look, someone working for Trump said it might be a good idea, so you should probably not bother with it if you get sick.....

 

I dunno, when Dr. Anthony Fauci who also is part of that group and happens to be the leading expert in the field disagrees with Social Scientist Peter Navarro? I think I'll go with the actual scientist.  Just color me skeptical.  You of course can take anything you want at Alice's Restaurant, excepting Alice.

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43 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

IF you look at Italy Spain and now New York City...

I want to go interview that dolt RIGHT NOW and see what he says NOW. Because if he is actually a doctor....

It is actually been safer to be in Italy than in Little Italy.

Reference 35% death escalation line - normalised per capita.

IMG_20200407_032949.jpg

IMG_20200407_033025.jpg

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1 hour ago, d'ranger said:

I dunno, when Dr. Anthony Fauci who also is part of that group and happens to be the leading expert in the field disagrees with Social Scientist Peter Navarro? I think I'll go with the actual scientist.  Just color me skeptical.  You of course can take anything you want at Alice's Restaurant, excepting Alice.

Of course Dr. Fauci said this in January....."It isn't something the American public needs to worry about or be frightened about, because we have ways of preparing and screening of people coming in [from China]," National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Director Anthony Fauci told "The Cats Roundtable" on 970 AM-N.Y., per The Hill."    

So, there's that......

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3 minutes ago, A.M.S. said:

Of course Dr. Fauci said this in January....."It isn't something the American public needs to worry about or be frightened about, because we have ways of preparing and screening of people coming in [from China]," National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Director Anthony Fauci told "The Cats Roundtable" on 970 AM-N.Y., per The Hill."    

So, there's that......

Excellent whataboutism.

edit: If anyone wants to know how I really feel about the monumental fuckups in the USA just go down the hall to the PA room as I am trying to keep politics out of this.

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8 minutes ago, A.M.S. said:

Of course Dr. Fauci said this in January....."It isn't something the American public needs to worry about or be frightened about, because we have ways of preparing and screening of people coming in [from China]," National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Director Anthony Fauci told "The Cats Roundtable" on 970 AM-N.Y., per The Hill."    

So, there's that......

If it was January he might have had a point  - my calendar says April ;)

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And in May, Dr Fauci may be stroking off scripts for Plaquenil like a fiend!  Thats why we call it "practicing" medicine.....We can revisit then......:D

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28 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

Excellent whataboutism.

edit: If anyone wants to know how I really feel about the monumental fuckups in the USA just go down the hall to the PA room as I am trying to keep politics out of this.

Just pointing out that opinions can change....thats why philosophical arguments like yours based on "appeals to authority" are easily discarded....."But Dr. Fauci said....!"

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The things we could do rhat Tony referred to turned out to be broken....testng for onr....

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I was giving the claim some credence then I saw the Hoover Institute Imprimatur.  Into the trash heap

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19 minutes ago, A.M.S. said:

Just pointing out that opinions can change....thats why philosophical arguments like yours based on "appeals to authority" are easily discarded....."But Dr. Fauci said....!"

"We should be asking questions like “How did you find out this virus was dangerous?”, “How was it before?”, “Didn’t we have the same thing last year?”, “Is it even something new? "

When someone is that dumb there is no hope.

facepalm.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

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and you can't spell because becuase? It's a rhetorical question so look it up if you need to.

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3 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Is cyanide bad for you? Well I have heard different things. Cyanide has existed for a long time and I haven't heard of entire nations dying all at once from it. How bad can it be? Opinions seem to differ.

Good point.  Cyanide comes from almonds.  I eat almond almost every day and I’m not dead.  Clearly the whole cyanide thing is a hoax.

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7 hours ago, Old Yeller said:

This was recorded I believe on March 27 (the link was posted above). The point is that not everyone in the medical field agrees about the virus or the response to it. These people are hardly “idiots”. 

Yes they are. Being a Doctor don’t stop you from being an ignorant cunt. Plenty of them voted for Trump as an example. The guy in the vid is an idiot with a medical degree. You are a idiot with a keyboard.

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Doctors are not epidemiologists. They are also not hydrodynamicists. Understanding how disease spreads, how to mitigate etc is the role of the former.

Infectious disease is one small part of the medical establishment and the rest of the docs out there know fuck-all about it.

Until HIV, infectious disease had become a very unpopular field of study. There were pundits claiming that "the age of infectious diseases is over."

One day, I stumbled on a celebratory yearbook from Bryn Mawr Hospital, published in the 50s or 60s, and in there one of the great doctors of the century was noted to have been unconvinced of the value of handwashing...

Granted, that last one was a long time ago but the Germ Theory was well established by then!
 

There are PLENTY of medical doctors out there that are easy to get looking like horse's asses -- especially if they go off on shit they don't know (epidemiology and infectious disease) but can't help themselves because they are doctors...

...you know, kinda like sailors spouting off on shit about tankers or stuff like that ;-P

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That's reminiscent of a famous anecdote in Chapter 1 of every introductory microbiology text. Ignaz Semmelweis "discovered" (apparently it was well known) that women were three times more likely to die in childbirth if attended by a licensed physician  medical students than by a midwife.  Doctors were "too good" to wash their hands.  

In fairness, "germ theory" was still somewhat in play at the time.  (misremembered the story!)

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

It is actually been safer to be in Italy than in Little Italy.

Reference 35% death escalation line - normalised per capita.

IMG_20200407_032949.jpg

IMG_20200407_033025.jpg

Interesting increments on left axis.  Bell curve?

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44 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

Yes they are. Being a Doctor don’t stop you from being an ignorant cunt. Plenty of them voted for Trump as an example. The guy in the vid is an idiot with a medical degree. You are a idiot with a keyboard.

Sadly, I’m not surprised by the emotional name calling and the absence of a substantive rebuttal.  That seems to be par for the course these days. I’m sure the Stanford professor (and the others listed above) would love to hear from you. Why don’t you send him an email and explain exactly why you think he’s “an idiot with a medical degree “. He seems like a very reasonable person. Perhaps he would take the time to address some of your concerns. 

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It is, of course, good to question the current perceived wisdom... it is through questioning that we get change. Nevertheless, when one of the richest cities in the world is proposing to dig shallow graves in a local park to bury the covid dead because the morgues are overwhelmed, perhaps the current perceived wisdom / panic is just an eentsy weentsy bit justified, n'est ce pas?

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Hey Old Yellowballs, Clint has a message for ya

download.jpg.66b58d5907b7a019ccd3f9c27b59b1dc.jpg

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1 hour ago, Ripper said:

Interesting increments on left axis.  Bell curve?

Logarithmic.

Otherwise it just shoots straight up.

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2 hours ago, fastyacht said:

Doctors are not epidemiologists. They are also not hydrodynamicists. Understanding how disease spreads, how to mitigate etc is the role of the former.

Infectious disease is one small part of the medical establishment and the rest of the docs out there know fuck-all about it.

Until HIV, infectious disease had become a very unpopular field of study. There were pundits claiming that "the age of infectious diseases is over."

One day, I stumbled on a celebratory yearbook from Bryn Mawr Hospital, published in the 50s or 60s, and in there one of the great doctors of the century was noted to have been unconvinced of the value of handwashing...

Granted, that last one was a long time ago but the Germ Theory was well established by then!
 

There are PLENTY of medical doctors out there that are easy to get looking like horse's asses -- especially if they go off on shit they don't know (epidemiology and infectious disease) but can't help themselves because they are doctors...

...you know, kinda like sailors spouting off on shit about tankers or stuff like that ;-P

Or the almost uniquely US version of it which is to call yourself "Reverend" and then you can do and say any kind of shit from kiddy fiddling to mass Ponzi schemes and still get rubes lining up to suck your balls

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2 hours ago, fastyacht said:

Doctors are not epidemiologists. They are also not hydrodynamicists. Understanding how disease spreads, how to mitigate etc is the role of the former.

Infectious disease is one small part of the medical establishment and the rest of the docs out there know fuck-all about it.

Until HIV, infectious disease had become a very unpopular field of study. There were pundits claiming that "the age of infectious diseases is over."

One day, I stumbled on a celebratory yearbook from Bryn Mawr Hospital, published in the 50s or 60s, and in there one of the great doctors of the century was noted to have been unconvinced of the value of handwashing...

Granted, that last one was a long time ago but the Germ Theory was well established by then!
 

There are PLENTY of medical doctors out there that are easy to get looking like horse's asses -- especially if they go off on shit they don't know (epidemiology and infectious disease) but can't help themselves because they are doctors...

...you know, kinda like sailors spouting off on shit about tankers or stuff like that ;-P

Doctors get training - lots of training - in a broad variety of topics.

My wife, an OB/Gyn, also took infectious diseases courses in medical school. A basic understanding of this stuff is part of their training.

Hell, my daughter is getting enough information in her college level biology classes to get an understanding of this stuff. As did I back when I got a bio degree.

 

So I can tell you with 100% certainty that when someone like my wife hears things from guys like Fauci and guys like the numbnuts in these Hoover Institute pieces, she can understand what they are saying and tell which one is full of shit.

Of course, she did graduate Magna cum laude from a top university, Alpha Omega Alpha from a top medical school, and did her residency at Mt. Sinai in NY City. So maybe she doesn't know fuck-all because she's an OB/Gyn, but I doubt it given that she is demonstrably really , really smart.

There is a name they call the dumbest guy to graduate last in his class from a 3rd rate medical school. Unfortunately, that name is "Doctor". And there is literally nothing to keep them from making videos as paid shills for a place like the Hoover institute.

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18 minutes ago, Old Yeller said:

DAvid Katz wrote his article at least a month too late. If he had been writing that in January it would have been helpful. By March 10 we all knew NY was fucked. By 20 March we were certain they were fucked.

My son GTFO of Gotham between the 10th and 20th. A number of his close associates came down with it the next week. He may or may not have had it too. We'll never know. There is still no testing unless you are basically dying at least in CT.

But 20-20 hindsight is a strange thing.

The fact remains that the Orange in Chief fucked up the whole tone from the beginning, the CDC was damaged from teh start (Redfield was a good researcher but zero administrative experience) and as much as many of us admire Tony, his department, and the NIH as a whole, were eviscerated of money and people compared to where they would have been.

Yeah, we should have cordoned off the high risk folks. My parents did that. And they ain't in NY. By 10 March was the end of going anywhere for them.

And then you have the fact that dose response is very strong with this disease. Doctors Nurses and Orderlies who are young and healthy have died. So have some laypeople. It isn't a sure thing to come out OK. So where would you have drawn the line--understanding that that line needed to be drawn in JANUARY to have had any fucking chance of working?

Remember--we are born with a sense of logarithms and then we systematically teach our preschoolers to forget that and learn the integers and counting. By the time we are adults, our spidey senses are destroyed. We can't properly anticipate exponential growth and most people can't even understand a semilog plot!

 

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2 hours ago, Ripper said:

Interesting increments on left axis.  Bell curve?

Y Axis is Log not Linear to more properly capture the exponential growth rate.

LINEAR PER CAPITA

IMG_20200407_120636.jpg

IMG_20200407_120715.jpg

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7 hours ago, A.M.S. said:

Of course Dr. Fauci said this in January....."It isn't something the American public needs to worry about or be frightened about, because we have ways of preparing and screening of people coming in [from China]," National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Director Anthony Fauci told "The Cats Roundtable" on 970 AM-N.Y., per The Hill."    

So, there's that......

 

7 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

If it was January he might have had a point  - my calendar says April ;)

When Fauci said that it was 26 January.

Trump was saying this shit for the next month. Fauci wasn't saying any of this dribble, in fact contradicted Trump at every opportunity.

IMG_20200407_121924.jpg

On 8/9 March.

IMG_20200407_122605.jpg

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Well, I guess except for THIS day.....right?  Also, check out the Univ. of Washington website for projections.  Update yesterday cuts the number of cases in half in most instances, so I guess maybe Trump is doing ok.....As dear old Maggie Thatcher used to say (paraphrased), Trump is the absolutely worst leader on COVID, except for every other leader in the world.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/23/fauci_the_response_of_trump_admin_has_been_impressive_i_cant_imagine_anybody_could_be_doing_more.html#!

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13 minutes ago, A.M.S. said:

As dear old Maggie Thatcher used to say (paraphrased), Trump is the absolutely worst leader on COVID, except for every other leader in the world.

Except for the simple fact that those other leaders have killed far, far fewer of their citizens per capita with their response to CV than Trump.

 

Hell he has already shown he is 6 times stupider than the female leader of south korea and ten times dumber than the leader of taiwan.

In another three weeks, he'll be proven to be at least ten times dumber than the leaders of all other nations except for Iran and Brazil, at least on healthcare response.  

The numbers are very clear already, and will only get clearer.    Hard to spin body bags.

 

 

 

 

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I guess if you could score world-wide pandemics like a soccer game you would be right.....This is why science is hard, but watching soccer games is easy.

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44 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

DAvid Katz wrote his article at least a month too late. If he had been writing that in January it would have been helpful. By March 10 we all knew NY was fucked. By 20 March we were certain they were fucked.

My son GTFO of Gotham between the 10th and 20th. A number of his close associates came down with it the next week. He may or may not have had it too. We'll never know. There is still no testing unless you are basically dying at least in CT.

But 20-20 hindsight is a strange thing.

The fact remains that the Orange in Chief fucked up the whole tone from the beginning, the CDC was damaged from teh start (Redfield was a good researcher but zero administrative experience) and as much as many of us admire Tony, his department, and the NIH as a whole, were eviscerated of money and people compared to where they would have been.

Yeah, we should have cordoned off the high risk folks. My parents did that. And they ain't in NY. By 10 March was the end of going anywhere for them.

And then you have the fact that dose response is very strong with this disease. Doctors Nurses and Orderlies who are young and healthy have died. So have some laypeople. It isn't a sure thing to come out OK. So where would you have drawn the line--understanding that that line needed to be drawn in JANUARY to have had any fucking chance of working?

Remember--we are born with a sense of logarithms and then we systematically teach our preschoolers to forget that and learn the integers and counting. By the time we are adults, our spidey senses are destroyed. We can't properly anticipate exponential growth and most people can't even understand a semilog plot!

 

Hindsight is indeed a strange thing. But, as with history, it is definitely not 20-20. Who should have done what and when is debatable, and who should have the authority to do what and when is a large part of that debate. Where would I draw the line? How much power are you willing to give Agent Orange, even with the support of public health officials? or his successor?  These aren’t simple questions to be taken lightly. Just as the deaths are not to be taken lightly. So given the seriousness of the situation I think it is critically important that we consider a wide range of expert opinion.

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10 minutes ago, A.M.S. said:

I guess if you could score world-wide pandemics like a soccer game you would be right.....This is why science is hard, but watching soccer games is easy.

Fortunately you can compare every action taken by a government along with the number of infections they had on the day they took that action. Then you can compare that timeline with the timelines of other nations, along with the infection, death, and recovery curves of each nation.  Then you can find out exactly what action worked and what action didn't, and which ones were late and which ones were early.  When assembled, you can score the reaction of each nation quite accurately, and each action of each government even more so.

And at the end, you'll see that the world's richest, most technologically advanced nation - the only superpower at that - can hang out with Iran and Brazil in the very back of the special bus.  

That's what  'science is hard' gets you.

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22 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Fortunately you can compare every action taken by a government along with the number of infections they had on the day they took that action. Then you can compare that timeline with the timelines of other nations, along with the infection, death, and recovery curves of each nation.  Then you can find out exactly what action worked and what action didn't, and which ones were late and which ones were early.  When assembled, you can score the reaction of each nation quite accurately, and each action of each government even more so.

And at the end, you'll see that the world's richest, most technologically advanced nation - the only superpower at that - can hang out with Iran and Brazil in the very back of the special bus.  

That's what  'science is hard' gets you.

Provided you can know what the real rate of infection was...

...which we knew fuck-all about...

...and still don't actually...

...yet another article on that problem today

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Taiwan independently confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in November and December. Despite massive intl travel between the Taiwan strait and repatriation of business travelers and workers for Lunar New Year? Contained the spread. 
 

Cuz they implemented the lessons learned from SARS. 

The orange in the WH? Threw out the most basic playbook, dismantled the epidemic response team, staffed the HHS with a pharm executive and his son in law in god knows what. 
 

was the disease always going to get here? Yes. 
 

did this many people need to die? No. 
 

just compare San Francisco to NYC for a quick comparison of how early social distancing made a huge difference. 
 

like Emile Zola wrote - the truth always comes to light and the longer you suppress it the bigger the explosion that destroys everything in its path. This is our Chernobyl. When people lie. Obfuscate facts and truth with generations of what about ism, partisan sources, eventually the harsh indifferent reality comes smack everyone in the face. 
 

there are now over 100 freezer trucks in NYC. And yet we still have morons running around thinking it is no big deal, just the flu, or a anti malaria drug is suddenly going to turn into a anti-RNA/ACE2 site inhibitor. 

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32 minutes ago, Miffy said:

 

And yet we still have morons running around thinking it is no big deal, just the flu, or a anti malaria drug is suddenly going to turn into a anti-RNA/ACE2 site inhibitor. 

the clock is running on them learning the truth soon.

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Yes please. Let’s compare SF to NYC

Population density NYC- 27k per sq mile

SF? 17k per sq mile

 

thats science

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2 hours ago, A.M.S. said:

Well, I guess except for THIS day.....right?  Also, check out the Univ. of Washington website for projections.  Update yesterday cuts the number of cases in half in most instances, so I guess maybe Trump is doing ok.....As dear old Maggie Thatcher used to say (paraphrased), Trump is the absolutely worst leader on COVID, except for every other leader in the world.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/23/fauci_the_response_of_trump_admin_has_been_impressive_i_cant_imagine_anybody_could_be_doing_more.html#!

That's kind of like saying that Donald Trump is the best president we have right now.

While technically correct, it is not necessarily praise or agreement that Trump is a good president.

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2 hours ago, Old Yeller said:

Hindsight is indeed a strange thing. But, as with history, it is definitely not 20-20. Who should have done what and when is debatable, and who should have the authority to do what and when is a large part of that debate. Where would I draw the line? How much power are you willing to give Agent Orange, even with the support of public health officials? or his successor?  These aren’t simple questions to be taken lightly. Just as the deaths are not to be taken lightly. So given the seriousness of the situation I think it is critically important that we consider a wide range of expert opinion.

Not really, no.

There WAS a playbook for it, the Trump people had been briefed. They chose to ignore it, and are still ignoring it.

You can state pretty goddamned clearly that when the CDC warned us in early January was the time to start ramping up production, checking reserve stores, and considering how to contain this thing.

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1 hour ago, fastyacht said:

Provided you can know what the real rate of infection was...

...which we knew fuck-all about...

...and still don't actually...

...yet another article on that problem today

The U.S. testing and response has been such hot garbage that it is likely true there are more cases of this than reported.

There also may be a lot of old, dead people rotting away in NYC single apartments, too. Who knows?

But the numbers that we DO know are appalling and speak to a complete fumbling and mishandling of this. Horrible job, and criminally irresponsible. And it continues to the minute right now.

When I arrived back in NZ on Feb 8th from the U.S., New Zealand had already changed their passport control procedures for COVID-19 by eliminating electronic scans and running everyone in front of a person, and had HUGE signs up at the immigration stations about the disease, the symptoms, what to look for, and who to call if you were symptomatic.

It wasn't really on the radar in the US, though we'd hear about it and we knew about it before we left the U.S.  because as world travelers we watch international stories as well.

 

What does tiny country like NZ know that the U.S. does not?  Very little, except that the health of its citizens is priority #1.

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6 hours ago, A.M.S. said:

Yes please. Let’s compare SF to NYC

Population density NYC- 27k per sq mile

SF? 17k per sq mile

 

thats science

No, that's math. thanks for playing.

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3 hours ago, d'ranger said:

No, that's math. thanks for playing.

Spoken exactly like a person who doesn't understand science......I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you......

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21 minutes ago, A.M.S. said:

Spoken exactly like a person who doesn't understand science......I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you......

Go ahead and give it a try.

edit: waiting....  try to emphasis density, something that should hit home with you.

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21 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

Go ahead and give it a try.

edit: waiting....  try to emphasis density, something that should hit home with you.

Math is a TOOL of the scientist.  Science uses math to prove ideas.....but here is something about density for you.  Drop me a note if you have a problem with the big words over three letters......https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323722513_Effect_of_population_density_on_epidemics

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4 minutes ago, A.M.S. said:

Math is a TOOL of the scientist.  Science uses math to prove ideas.....but here is something about density for you.  Drop me a note if you have a problem with the big words over three letters......https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323722513_Effect_of_population_density_on_epidemics

Thanks so much there Capt Obvious which has nothing to do with your original post. I mean people close together being more likely to spread an infectious disease? Nobody could have predicted that (Trump quote). 

Your parents must be ever so proud of you.

edit: And many thanks for that revelation that science uses math. Gee, I guess one must take some math classes before delving into science. wow.

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4 minutes ago, A.M.S. said:

Math is a TOOL of the scientist.  Science uses math to prove ideas.....but here is something about density for you.  

what's the density in taiwan, moron?

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18 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

what's the density in taiwan, moron?

Concrete thinking may be holding you back, but don't worry, you CAN overcome it!  (Well, you're a foredeck guy, you MIGHT be able to overcome it......) 

 https://www.betterhelp.com/advice/general/why-concrete-thinking-may-be-holding-you-back/

 

Part of science is understanding VARIABLES.....one of the challenges in SCIENCE is controlling for those variables.  Population density is one VARIABLE, but so are cultural norms, law and government, etc. Population density comparisons (since we know they have SOME effect) are most valuable between two identical social groups.  SF and NYC are much MORE the same than NYC and Taipei......does that help?

And by the way?  Taipei (the capital and most DENSE city in Taiwan) has the highest rate of infection with the Wuhan Virus!

https://asianews.network/2020/02/24/map-shows-latest-tally-of-covid-19-cases-in-taiwan-taipei-tops-list/

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2 minutes ago, Cristoforo said:

 A country with the same population and density  as the state of Maine,

are you sure you are not looking at elevation?  I think you have the same accent as Trump...now you've got his geography skills?

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7 minutes ago, A.M.S. said:

 

And by the way?  Taipei (the capital and most DENSE city in Taiwan) has the highest rate of infection with the Wuhan Virus!

https://asianews.network/2020/02/24/map-shows-latest-tally-of-covid-19-cases-in-taiwan-taipei-tops-list/

You just cited an article from February 24th to prove your powerful understanding of today's science.  This after moving your goalposts every time you are proven wrong (which is every time you post).

So which is it: is the US dense or not dense?  Did Taiwan do a good job or a bad job with their CV response?  Is the US death toll so high because science is impossible to understand or because God turned Her back on us?  What's the subset of 'travel ban' that allows 40,000 people to walk through the velvet rope?

So many questions.

 

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Having a focused leader and gov that isn’t completely moronic seems to be the common successful mitigation scheme. 
 

but some people just want to deflect from institutional and leadership failure. 

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Quote

So many questions.

 

<Sigh>, as I pointed out earlier.....I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

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Just now, A.M.S. said:

I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

That sounds familiar.  is there anything unusual about your underwear?

700478143.0.jpg

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4 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

That sounds familiar.  is there anything unusual about your underwear?

700478143.0.jpg

Personally, I am an agnostic.  I'm also a published scientist, though admittedly not an epidemiologist....

Why is religious bigotry considered acceptable around these parts I wonder......Would you like to question my ethnicity as well?

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1 hour ago, d'ranger said:

Thanks so much there Capt Obvious which has nothing to do with your original post. I mean people close together being more likely to spread an infectious disease? Nobody could have predicted that (Trump quote). 

Your parents must be ever so proud of you.

edit: And many thanks for that revelation that science uses math. Gee, I guess one must take some math classes before delving into science. wow.

Stricken as non-responsive....ask Clean to explain THAT to you

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4 minutes ago, A.M.S. said:

Stricken as non-responsive....ask Clean to explain THAT to you

And I thought you would explain it to me.  I was right about your density.

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All I’m seeing are google front page results, silly insults and claims of subject matter expertise without any actual expertise. 

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3 minutes ago, Miffy said:

All I’m seeing are google front page results, silly insults and claims of subject matter expertise without any actual expertise. 

You forgot religious bigotry and ad hominem attacks and straw men........

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