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Old Yeller

Medical Professionals: A Dissenting Opinion

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13 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

That aged well...

image.thumb.png.6334460475c4593816317c46c30ebbbd.png

I'm sure his PhD in computer science was very helpful as was working with a guy for 15 years who invented the term "reproduction number” (is that like the comfort number on my mattress?).  

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2 minutes ago, SCARECROW said:

I'm sure his PhD in computer science was very helpful as was working with a guy for 15 years who invented the term "reproduction number” (is that like the comfort number on my mattress?).  

The claim that about 1,000 lives were saved at a cost of ~$2 Trillion is laughable. 2,500 have died since the claim was made FFS.

Even the Big Orange Idiot agrees death tolls could have been in the millions, and this thing isn't done killing yet.

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2 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

The claim that about 1,000 lives were saved at a cost of ~$2 Trillion is laughable. 2,500 have died since the claim was made FFS.

Even the Big Orange Idiot agrees death tolls could have been in the millions, and this thing isn't done killing yet.

Like we're seeing with the experts here, i think there will be a constant stream of people drawing conclusions off incomplete data.  Get it wrong and you're just another that got it wrong.  Time it right and you can trade off it for years.

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8 hours ago, Old Yeller said:

 

3 hours ago, B.J. Porter said:

That aged well...

image.thumb.png.6334460475c4593816317c46c30ebbbd.png

Fuck that shit is dated 31 March, only a week old and his max fatality estimate is already exceeded by one-third. 

Now the funny bit. He is CEO of some backyard outfit that specialises in Autism, Diet Exploration & Repurposing, whatever that is. Fuck me, who let's these snakeoil pricks out.

Dr. Wittkowski is currently the CEO of ASDERA LLC, a company discovering novel treatments for complex diseases from data of genome-wide association studies.

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17 hours ago, A.M.S. said:

Spoken exactly like a person who doesn't understand science......I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you......

 

On 4/7/2020 at 4:46 AM, A.M.S. said:

Of course Dr. Fauci says....National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Director Anthony Fauci....

So, there's that......

 

15 hours ago, A.M.S. said:

... I'm also a published scientist, though admittedly not an epidemiologist.

Hey AMS I wonder if you can help me out.

I see you are a published scientist and willing to explain things. Can you help me understand what this Dr Fauci dude is saying.

Like he says; "we're fucked" and on shelter-at-home, "if you catch yourself looking out the fucking window, punch yourself in the dick."

Mate you seem to have this virus bitch wired, please tell me he is exagerating.

 

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I did not delete the video. I’ll try reposting it.

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I don’t know which prospect is more tragic - there’s someone out there looking for the worst sources possibly and posting them like this is 1995 internet for laughs or actually believes in all this shit because the truth is too much. 

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What's tragic is that more people will die because these NON medical professionals with "dissenting opinions" care more about inflating their flaccid egos than people's lives.

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Another tragedy is that Old Yeller was shot because he was rabid.  It was a public service.

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Can’t we just agree to segregate, those that don’t/won’t self isolate etc can find a great big space and move there for 3 months, give them some earthmoving equipment for the mass graves they’ll need..... no need for any medical equipment.

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How do you not crater rthre whole business when the "essentual" workers are not tested protected etc to a very high standard?

 

What happens when there is nobody to harvest crops and 10% of the workers die?

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1 hour ago, d'ranger said:

Another tragedy is that Old Yeller was shot because he was rabid.  It was a public service.

It’s a great story. I encourage you to read it. 

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3 hours ago, Old Yeller said:

I did not delete the video. I’ll try reposting it.

So I must have imagined it or the dog ate it 

48 minutes ago, Old Yeller said:

It’s a great story. I encourage you to read it. 

Yes the closing credits are the best bit.

Says the video was the work of a crowd called  Children's Health Defense an organisation that campaigns against vaccinations and fluoridation of drinking water. Ha Ha.

In a court ruling where this crowd represented a bunch of anti-vaxers the Judge said their arguments amounted to little more than "unsupported, bald faced opinion."

They say vacinations cause autism...hang on where have I heard that "autism" word before...bingo ...your guy who said 10K US deaths max last week and now it's 14K.

11 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Now the funny bit. He is CEO of some backyard outfit that specialises in Autism, Diet Exploration & Repurposing, whatever that is. Fuck me, who let's these snakeoil pricks out.

YellowNuts were you vacinated and now your autistic? 

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41 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

So I must have imagined it or the dog ate it 

Yes the closing credits are the best bit.

Says the video was the work of a crowd called  Children's Health Defense an organisation that campaigns against vaccinations and fluoridation of drinking water. Ha Ha.

In a court ruling where this crowd represented a bunch of anti-vaxers the Judge said their arguments amounted to little more than "unsupported, bald faced opinion."

They say vacinations cause autism...hang on where have I heard that word before...bingo ...your guy who said 10K US deaths max last week and now it's 14K.

Yellow nuts were you vacinated and now your autistic? 

Ok my friend, I’ll humor you and take the time to respond to your thoughtful post, but I can’t promise I’ll make a habit of it. 
1. I never said you were imagining anything. I said I did not delete the video. Is it possible I deleted the post accidentally? Always possible I suppose. Not likely though. Who knows.... At any rate, I reposted the video for your viewing pleasure. Enjoy.

2. My comment about it being a great story referred to the book starring the dog, not the video produced by Children’s Health Defense.     The book was intended for children; however, if you find the vocabulary above your level you can ask your mommy for help.

3. Children’s Health Defense and RFK Jr. is it really so crazy to want safe vaccines for children? Is it really so crazy to want to hold pharmaceutical companies responsible for the products they sell? Do some people go overboard in their suspicions of vaccines? In my estimation, yes. Just as some people go overboard in their ridiculing anyone who raises a question about it.

4. If you are referencing a specific ruling it would be helpful to identify the case. Then I can research it. Of course we all know that our legal system is free of bias and influence, and that major corporations with billions on the line always play nice.

5. Unfortunately, we live in an extremely polarized world in which guilt by association is the preferred method for evaluating information. Where is George Carlin when we need him!

6. As for the Covid numbers, it looks like everyone involved has revised numbers at least once.....https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/

....and that should not be taken as a defense of the buffoon in the White House, or any of the other sociopaths masquerading as public servants. 
Try to stay calm my friends. The stress caused by your outrage and bile is not good for your immune system. Reach out to some of the “idiots with medical degrees” that I’ve linked to and let them know how wrong you think they are. Make good use of your energy.   Don’t waste it shooting the messenger :)

 

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

So I must have imagined it or the dog ate it 

Yes the closing credits are the best bit.

Says the video was the work of a crowd called  Children's Health Defense an organisation that campaigns against vaccinations and fluoridation of drinking water. Ha Ha.

In a court ruling where this crowd represented a bunch of anti-vaxers the Judge said their arguments amounted to little more than "unsupported, bald faced opinion."

They say vacinations cause autism...hang on where have I heard that "autism" word before...bingo ...your guy who said 10K US deaths max last week and now it's 14K.

YellowNuts were you vacinated and now your autistic? 

Or is he more worried about communist infiltration of his precious bodily fluids?

Deny them your essence, Old Yeller! DENY THEM YOUR ESSENCE!!

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4 hours ago, Old Yeller said:

Ok my friend, I’ll humor you and take the time ......

I should have stopped reading there. I now have to break isolation and go to a overstretched hospital for them to remove the blunt spoon I was using to gouge my eye out with. 

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I have to agree JS. He starts with a legitimate issue: people not presenting with chronic ailments because of a fear of catching Covid–19. That is indeed a legitimate issue that has been mentioned since the beginning.

But then he started presenting truely dodgy statistical analysis by simply extrapolating positive test rates to entire populations, which is completely erroneous given that only people who have Covid–19 symptoms are being tested (and even more restrictive testing was in place initially). The final straw for me was when he compared Sweden to Norway ('cos he's got Norwegian parentage so clearly he knows about Scandinavian countries better than anyone) and compared incidence in the two countries to say the tight controls in Norway had produced the same outcome as the much looser controls in Sweden. But he didn't compare the death rates: 37/million in Norway vs 217/million in Sweden, that puts Sweden at 5 times the death rate of Norway. Oops, no wonder he left that gem out.

He then brought up increased domestic violence and suicide without any data at all, just anecdotes. Again, this was expected and has been part of the social distancing message. No doubt it will be part of the post–Covid analysis, but right now there are no hard numbers. He does have something of a point though: 17,000 Americans commit suicide with guns every year, yet nothing is done to reduce the prevalence of guns in the community.

Finally, he said an average flu season kills between 37k and 60k Americans so what's the issue? Covid–19 has already killed 55,000 Americans in under 2 months, even with the fairly extreme restrictions on travel and social distancing. Yeah, just let it rip.

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On 4/7/2020 at 1:13 AM, A.M.S. said:

Yes please. Let’s compare SF to NYC

Population density NYC- 27k per sq mile

SF? 17k per sq mile

 

thats science

So is e^x

 

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1 hour ago, RobG said:

Finally, he said an average flu season kills between 37k and 60k Americans so what's the issue? Covid–19 has already killed 55,000 Americans in under 2 months, even with the fairly extreme restrictions on travel and social distancing. Yeah, just let it rip.

Rob the common theme with the "it's only a bad flu" crowd is they avoid two subjects like the plague.

1. The huge clinical difference and so consequences between Covid and normal respiratory diseases, and

2. What is an acceptable number of "extra over" deaths in a corresponding period caused by Covid? 

Both are roadblocks so they ignore them and go around them.

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18 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Rob the common theme with the "it's only a bad flu" crowd is they avoid two subjects like the plague.

1. The huge clinical difference and so consequences between Covid and normal respiratory diseases, and

2. What is an acceptable number of "extra over" deaths in a corresponding period caused by Covid? 

Both are roadblocks so they ignore them and go around them.

They also glibly compare seasonal flu stats WITH ZERO SOCIAL DISTANCING ETC against Covid19 stats WITH SOCIAL DISTANCING ETC which is a colossal fail right there.... comparing apples to wildebeest

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Trust them, they're doctors. The lack of customers patients in their clinics means they're motivated by genuine concern for their welfare, not loss of revenue.

When asked about whether there was a business motivation, they say "Oh no, that's a different subject, we're just presenting facts on something we know all about given our 40 years of combined experience". So why the dodgy analysis? Why the straying into other areas such as family violence and suicide? Why the statement that your immune system is depleted because of a few weeks of quarantine? Why the bullshit that healthy people are never quarantined, only sick people, so why are we doing it?

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Pitching for the next surgeon generals job cause he's white and he's on the R is for reading page,  Donnie will agree.

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On 4/9/2020 at 12:46 AM, Old Yeller said:

I did not delete the video. I’ll try reposting it.

So you came here to troll the Laser story ... is this your new gig now?

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On 4/6/2020 at 10:45 PM, Old Yeller said:

Why the fuck does SA/PA put up with this shit?

Google and facebook are under pressure to stop publishing fake news and it happens here every day of the week.

Happy Jack ... well, what can I say.  He's been doing it for years.  Now obvious cunts like this prick who use a sailing thread to get some posts up before switching to the real agenda.

Reddit even fucked off climate deniers, here fake news links are posted and they are supported.

giphy.gif

 

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Over 200K people dead from this, in a few  months.  Opine on that, bullshitters. 

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2 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

Didn't Old Yeller die of rabies? 

Old Yeller was killed because of rabies.

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10 minutes ago, IStream said:

Old Yeller was killed because of rabies.

Lead poisoning. :ph34r:

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Good old “just posting an alternative viewpoint” without any responsibility

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3 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

Didn't Old Yeller die of rabies? 

Old Yeller died by defending the ones he loved.

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5 hours ago, astro said:

Why the fuck does SA/PA put up with this shit?

 Google and facebook are under pressure to stop publishing fake news and it happens here every day of the week.

Happy Jack ... well, what can I say.  He's been doing it for years.  Now obvious cunts like this prick who use a sailing thread to get some posts up before switching to the real agenda.

Reddit even fucked off climate deniers, here fake news links are posted and they are supported.

These doctors and the other medical professionals are just expressing positions with which you disagree. No need to alert the thought police. This is Sailing Anarchy, not Snowflakes Anonymous. If you need a safe space go see Zuckerberg or Dorsey.

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47 minutes ago, Old Yeller said:

These doctors and the other medical professionals are just expressing positions with which you disagree. No need to alert the thought police. This is Sailing Anarchy, not Snowflakes Anonymous. If you need a safe space go see Zuckerberg or Dorsey.

No, they are expressing positions which are not supported by the data, and as medical professionals they are in a position to influence people who are not able to understand the data. That is why their views should not be disseminated without unambiguous clarification of their vested interests and the lack of supporting data. That is why science has peer review, to weed out this dangerous rubbish.

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7 hours ago, astro said:

Why the fuck does SA/PA put up with this shit?

Google and facebook are under pressure to stop publishing fake news and it happens here every day of the week.

Happy Jack ... well, what can I say.  He's been doing it for years.  Now obvious cunts like this prick who use a sailing thread to get some posts up before switching to the real agenda.

Reddit even fucked off climate deniers, here fake news links are posted and they are supported.

Why the hell are you coming here for the facts?

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I really like it when the PA reality-based community 

lumps the Hoover Instit. in with Off-Guardian. 

Hoover used to be half-way honest, but now they 

are firmly aligned with the Reich  

 

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3 hours ago, hasher said:

Old Yeller died by defending the ones he loved.

Seems prophetic, this one seems to have gone rabid as well. 

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Responded to a code for a COVID+ patient who died today. I tried telling her that it was just the flu, but she persisted.

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8 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

Didn't Old Yeller die of rabies? 

Lead poisoning.

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3 hours ago, Old Yeller said:

These doctors and the other medical professionals are just expressing positions with which you disagree. No need to alert the thought police. This is Sailing Anarchy, not Snowflakes Anonymous. If you need a safe space go see Zuckerberg or Dorsey.

61jtvFiQrtL._AC_SY355_.jpg

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@Miffy UTube have pulled one of the two videos which is interesting. Trust Fox to give them oxygen.

Statewide lockdown murdering their business their motivation?

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They think once they open up people will go to urgent care. 

they won’t. Their employees probably won’t provide any services to covid19 patients anyway. 
 

our state governor is reopening the state using cherry picked data from two large urban areas that locked down 20+ days before the state. Just as the rest of the state’s rural counties are having peak cases. 
 

this would be funny if people weren’t going to die because of statistical illiteracy and misinformation campaigns. 

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On 4/6/2020 at 3:18 PM, A.M.S. said:

Just pointing out that opinions can change....thats why philosophical arguments like yours based on "appeals to authority" are easily discarded....."But Dr. Fauci said....!"

Yep, hindsight provides incredible clarity.  FUD does not provide foresight, it merely provides panic.

 

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On 4/27/2020 at 1:48 PM, hump101 said:

No, they are expressing positions which are not supported by the data, and as medical professionals they are in a position to influence people who are not able to understand the data. That is why their views should not be disseminated without unambiguous clarification of their vested interests and the lack of supporting data. That is why science has peer review, to weed out this dangerous rubbish.

Are you able to understand the data?  I can't.  There are at least a dozen different tests being used.  Aggregating that is a huge task.  Almost everyone being tested is either symptomatic or someone like a Health Care Professional with known exposure.

The tests that China was flooding the market with have shown false negative rates of up to 30%.  Spain, England, The Netherlands have all been returning them after ordering millions. 

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I think a big caution on the video from Dr. Erickson is in order . .  from the article 

Update: YouTube has taken the video down, and the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) have released a joint statement condemning the video as financially motivated and inaccurate.

https://theprepared.com/blog/dr-ericksons-viral-covid-19-briefing-video-is-dangerously-wrong/

Folks, please check your sources carefully before posting them. Lives are at stake. 

If a doctor produces something this accurate and dangerous, shouldn't they license be yanked? 

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17 minutes ago, AJ Oliver said:

I think a big caution on the video from Dr. Erickson is in order . .  from the article 

Update: YouTube has taken the video down, and the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) have released a joint statement condemning the video as financially motivated and inaccurate.

https://theprepared.com/blog/dr-ericksons-viral-covid-19-briefing-video-is-dangerously-wrong/

Folks, please check your sources carefully before posting them. Lives are at stake. 

If a doctor produces something this accurate and dangerous, shouldn't they license be yanked? 

Don’t be naive. YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter regularly engage in politically motivated censorship. There is plenty of financial motivation to go around, and the biggest interests at the top of the food chain are waging an information war against anyone who questions their narrative. 

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28 minutes ago, AJ Oliver said:

I think a big caution on the video from Dr. Erickson is in order . .  from the article 

Update: YouTube has taken the video down, and the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) have released a joint statement condemning the video as financially motivated and inaccurate.

https://theprepared.com/blog/dr-ericksons-viral-covid-19-briefing-video-is-dangerously-wrong/

Folks, please check your sources carefully before posting them. Lives are at stake. 

If a doctor produces something this accurate and dangerous, shouldn't they license be yanked? 

Unfortunately licensing doesn’t work that way - physicians like Dr. Oz have been able to peddle their nonsense while returning to their day job in CT surgery since forever. 

they compartmentalize the hats they wear 

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1 hour ago, Saorsa said:

Yep, hindsight provides incredible clarity.  FUD does not provide foresight, it merely provides panic.

 

No,  that's absolute bullshit of the highest order. 

Fear uncertainty and doubt provides panic if no action is taken to find out as much as possible and prepare in advance, and mitigate weekly changes as it progress? 

The group of businesses I am involved with,  all less than 80 employees started planning for this back in mid Jan. 

But in the us overall...

40,000 returns from China without testing. 

Tens of thousands of europe returns into packed arrival halls for hours. Who Fucked that one up?  They had 3 days notice. 

Please explain how FUD merely provided panic to Australia?  It didn't.  The government got off its ass and did the stuff that needed to be done. 

However thankfully there is FUD in Texas,  because many restaurants,  all major movie theaters will not be opening, because they are sensibly saying it is not worth it,  yet.  

Actually what is your opinion of abott wanting to take away local control of restrictions when Dallas county still added another 600 new cases in the last 7 days. Despite a pretty good quality 4 week shut down? 

In your opinion,  how much honesty has Trump allowed Fauci and Birx?

Good government works hard to get to the bottom of it,  says it is doing so and that it doesn't know everything yet, but it will keep the people updated. It does not put politics first.

Bad government makes quick promises without checking first,  or even worse intentionally misleads.... Care to comment about pence saying the media misunderstood his promise about 4 million tests.... turns out we all misunderstood (stupid us). He said these tests would be available,  he didn't say the US would have the capability to process them. 

This is the best the US has to offer? 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Saorsa said:

Are you able to understand the data?  I can't.  There are at least a dozen different tests being used.  Aggregating that is a huge task.  Almost everyone being tested is either symptomatic or someone like a Health Care Professional with known exposure.

The tests that China was flooding the market with have shown false negative rates of up to 30%.  Spain, England, The Netherlands have all been returning them after ordering millions. 

Agreed.  Which is also why, on balance,  I tend to side with epidemiologists in nyc who's gut instincts are collectively gut estimating about 15 per cent population infection rate rather than the 25 per cent value which doi far has some serious sampling issues.

So the only true statistic that has undeniable value is excess deaths.

And so far it seems to be around 0.7 to 1.2 population fatality rate,  doubling or tripling when the health system is massively overloaded. 

Anyway,  we should have some nice data to play with in June,  if Texas actually decides to do decent testing to go along with reopening for business starting on Friday. 

Even more interesting to me is the starting threshold is 25 per cent max occupancy for a business,  lifting to 50 per cent in 2 weeks if no sizable increase in confirmed cases,  I assume that would have to be on top of the 600 new cases in the last week for dallas county, with a steady linear rate increase.

Of course it takes more than 2 weeks to see a huge blip,  and many businesses won't open yet anyway.  So the 50 percent will  occur regardless of what actually happens. 

Edited by dfw_sailor
Typo

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52 minutes ago, Old Yeller said:

the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM)

I think I'll side with these folks . .  

51 minutes ago, Old Yeller said:

Don’t be naive. YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter regularly engage in politically motivated censorship. There is plenty of financial motivation to go around, and the biggest interests at the top of the food chain are waging an information war against anyone who questions their narrative. 

If I actually were naive, I might take the word of an 

anonymous troll. Not bloody likely, and the Brits say. 

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2 hours ago, Saorsa said:

Are you able to understand the data?  I can't.

Yep, true, do do have a problem there.

 

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Here is the statement. It is strongly worded, but has no rebuttal. 

ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation

The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.
COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making.

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AJ, forget it. Your country elected as defacto world leader a guy with no experience, a guy who fucked pornstars while his trophy wife was preggers, a pathological bankrupt and liar, a man who actually suggested injecting disinfectant to cure a virus is a good idea and shockingly  40% of your countrymen are lapping it up. Even here on this board there are morons who love him, believe in him, who would suck on that tiny deformed dingus all day long for a few words of praise.

It will never end, (stupidity) so just get used to it

 

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Here's the latest from that very stable genius

Trump: I Was Right, Coronavirus Cases ‘Will Go Down to Zero, Ultimately’

 

(after everyone is dead)

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On 4/28/2020 at 2:56 AM, Old Yeller said:

These doctors and the other medical professionals are just expressing positions with which you disagree. No need to alert the thought police. This is Sailing Anarchy, not Snowflakes Anonymous. If you need a safe space go see Zuckerberg or Dorsey.

There is no absolute truth': an infectious disease expert on Covid-19, misinformation and 'bullshit'

"The formal definition that we use [for bullshit] is “language, statistical figures, data, graphics and other forms of presentation that are intended to persuade by impressing and overwhelming a reader or listener with a blatant disregard for truth or logical coherence”.

"The idea with bullshit is that it’s trying to appear authoritative and definitive in a way that’s not about communicating accurately and informing a reader, but rather by overwhelming them, persuading them, impressing them. If that’s done without any allegiance to truth, or accuracy, that becomes bullshit.

"So even when the material isn’t being produced as bullshit, it’s being picked up and used in the service of that by overstating its claims, by cherry-picking the information that’s out there and so on. And I think that’s kind of the biggest problem that we’re facing."

 

 

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12 minutes ago, RobG said:

"The idea with bullshit is that it’s trying to appear authoritative and definitive in a way that’s not about communicating accurately and informing a reader, but rather by overwhelming them, persuading them, impressing them. If that’s done without any allegiance to truth, or accuracy, that becomes bullshit.

Very true 

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On 4/27/2020 at 10:56 AM, Old Yeller said:

These doctors and the other medical professionals are just expressing positions with which you disagree. No need to alert the thought police. This is Sailing Anarchy, not Snowflakes Anonymous. If you need a safe space go see Zuckerberg or Dorsey.

Those aren't doctors nor medical professionals. Where do you dig up the piles of shit you dig up? I wish you would just eat them like a normal dog.

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2 hours ago, AJ Oliver said:

Here is the statement. It is strongly worded, but has no rebuttal. 

ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation

The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.
COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making.

That’s it!? That is an empty appeal to authority-  a denunciation without substance. “They are wrong. We are right. They have bad motives. Our motives are good.” It’s fine to disagree with them but at least deal with the information they presented.

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31 minutes ago, Old Yeller said:

That’s it!? That is an empty appeal to authority-  a denunciation without substance. “They are wrong. We are right. They have bad motives. Our motives are good.” It’s fine to disagree with them but at least deal with the information they presented.

The claims made by the two doctors have been clearly and emphatically proven wrong by a number of critiques. Their entire argument is based on false extrapolation and cherry picking of statistics, that has been proven time and time again in this thread at least and in various highly regarded news media as well.

To keep it simple, here are two obvious issues:

  1. They extrapolated the ratio of positive tests to all tests out to an entire population without accounting for the fact that the vast majority of tests at the time were only of symptomatic persons who were sick enough to present to a medical facility and had a reasonably high probability of having Covid-19. This almost certainly grossly overstates the number of persons who have or have had Covid-19.
  2. Claiming the outcomes in Sweden (minimal "social distancing" orders and no business shutdown) and Norway (strict social distancing and business shutdowns) were virtually the same. Sweden's death rate as a percentage of the population was 6 times that of Norway (233 vs 38 respectively), hardly similar outcomes.

So yes, their "analysis" pretty much fits the formal definition of bullshit.

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32 minutes ago, Old Yeller said:

That’s it!? That is an empty appeal to authority-  a denunciation without substance. “

Not much I can add to what RobG says below, except to ask 

what are your creds, ya punk? 

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15 minutes ago, AJ Oliver said:

Not much I can add to what RobG says below, except to ask 

what are your creds, ya punk? 

Punk? AJ, does one need “creds” to post the opinions of medical professionals. Those doctors are only two of many around the world who question the wisdom of these lockdowns. I’d like to hear what they all have to say. 

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12 minutes ago, Old Yeller said:

Punk? AJ, does one need “creds” to post the opinions of medical professionals. Those doctors are only two of many around the world who question the wisdom of these lockdowns. I’d like to hear what they all have to say. 

I think, in reality, you'd like to hear what the ones that support your veiwpoint have to say... the others (i.e the vast majority), not so much

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48 minutes ago, Old Yeller said:

In that spirit here are two interviews from different points of view. One is with Neil Ferguson. The other is with Swedish professor Johan Giesecke that I posted earlier. 
https://unherd.com/2020/04/which-epidemiologist-do-you-believe/

Not sure the point you're trying to make.

The "do less" argument is based on the idea that the effects of Covid-19 are no worse than a bad flu season. That has already been dispelled: they are vastly worse. Covid–19 has already killed as many Americans as the worst flu season in decades, even with spread attenuation measures in place and while there is still a long way to go before it's run its course. So the fundamental premise is wrong, essentially negating the rest of the argument. An alternative strategy needs to honestly deal with the facts as they are.

The "do a lot" argument is based on the notion that the economic cost of mitigation or eradication is less than the economic cost of alternatives (of which doing more, less and nothing are alternative hypotheses), notwithstanding the moral issue of trading lives for economic benefits. It recognises the spread and mortality of the disease and deals with it head on. It doesn't rely on false generalisation such as "it's no worse than a bad flu season".

Another consideration for each approach is "what if we're wrong?" In the first case, being wrong means the disease is far worse that expected and a huge number of people die. In the second, the disease isn't as bad is we thought and we end up with a huge economic downturn that must be rectified over the next few decades.

Most people seem to recognise and understand both arguments, and, weighing up the pros and cons, support the latter position. That's pretty strong evidence that a mitigation or elimination strategy should be followed by responsible governments.

BTW, if you want to know how vapid the flu comparison is, read Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges.

The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers [for flu deaths] that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

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And it is obvious what the problematic motivations are when the same folks who minimized the danger (just flu) that opposed or delayed quarantine measures are also the ones who say (ok great distancing has had its beneficial effect let’s move on). 
 

when there’s a result you want - and you view all facts as being mere opinions, anything is possible including contrails and flat earths  

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52 minutes ago, Old Yeller said:

Those doctors are only two of many around the world who question the wisdom of these lockdowns. I’d like to hear what they all have to say. 

USA Deaths/million = 179 (late/fake lockdown, thank Trump the "it will go away, like a miracle")

AUS Deaths/million =  3 (lockdown on time and there were no fuckwits protesting on the streets, we aren't that fucking stupid)

Fuck off troll.

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33 minutes ago, RobG said:

Not sure the point you're trying to make.

“Meanwhile, somewhat ironically given the laser-targeted threat of this disease on the old and vulnerable, the Giesecke approach felt imbued with the more philosophical perspective of later life. He has seen many pandemics; we live in a world full of various threats and dangers, and we can’t stop everything to try to run from one new one. Young people must be allowed to do what young people do, and older people, without the luxury of unlimited years ahead of them, must be allowed to choose to go back to seeing their grandchildren and living a full life even knowing the risks.”

“Whether you’re more Giesecke or Ferguson, it’s time to stop pretending that our response to this threat is simply a scientific question, or even an easy moral choice between right and wrong. It’s a question of what sort of world we want to live in, and at what cost.”

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USA Case/million population = 3,129 (Method: greedy greedy I couldn't give a fuck how many die as long as I get my money)

AUS Case/million population =    264 (Method: ok then let's stop this bullshit for the good of the entire country)

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4 minutes ago, astro said:

USA Case/million population = 3,129 (Method: greedy greedy I couldn't give a fuck how many die as long as I get my money)

AUS Case/million population =    264 (Method: ok then let's stop this bullshit for the good of the entire country)

Notice that because of decisive efforts, NZ and Australia can reopen in less time and Korea and Taiwan never shut down. 

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39 minutes ago, astro said:

USA Deaths/million = 179 (late/fake lockdown, thank Trump the "it will go away, like a miracle")

AUS Deaths/million =  3 (lockdown on time and there were no fuckwits protesting on the streets, we aren't that fucking stupid)

Fuck off troll.

Did you pluck those numbers from your ass?

 

cv dm.jpg

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2 minutes ago, astro said:

So you agree Spain Italy France and the UK just to name a few are doing much worse compared to the US?

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Yeller,  allow me to ask your opinion on a fairly simple question. 

The data is forming up to show a population mortality rate of about 0.7 to 1 percent.  If we'r say there is a herd immunity at 70 per cent (a huge assumption atm), that would be 1.7 million deaths,  or about 30 million hospital admissions.

We now know an overloaded hospital system tripled (or more ) the fatality rate.  So the number of deaths would increase from 1.7 million to 5 million.

So,  is the economic lock down worth saving 3.3 million lives?

Doubt worry about the additional 5 million or so that will survive with significant heart,  lung, brain and other organ failures for now. 

Well one more question for you... doi you honestly believe trump and pence when they say the death toll will only reach 70k when it is now 55k ish?

 

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