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Jud - s/v Sputnik

Get ready for more pandemics in the future (and more frequent?)

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The handwriting is on the wall, it looks to me.  As long as headlong development continues and people in tropical parts of the world need to eat, rainforests are cut down for oil and mineral extraction, the traditional Chinese medicine markets demands exotic species to stock its shelves with unproven cures, and people want to drink civet cat shit coffee, zoonotic diseases will continue, perhaps even proliferate, and thus the likelihood of pandemics (unless some sort of universal vaccine is ever developed).  Based on what I’m reading, what the experts are saying, the way things are going, things like this are going to keep happening, perhaps more frequently.

I’m not a pessimist, and certainly not a virologist, etc. - but read the articles below and try to draw a different conclusion.  We all are seriously screwing up the planet, and in the process creating conditions for the next pandemic (via zoonosis, inter-species virus transmission).  The first article sums it all up; the others are very interesting background reading, especially the one on civet cat shit coffee...which is totally fucked up:

Start with the first one, an interview with a key scientist who’s long worked in wildlife viriology, “The man who saw the pandemic coming”:

http://m.nautil.us/issue/83/intelligence/the-man-who-saw-the-pandemic-coming

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-to-stop-next-animal-borne-pandemic-180967908/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-sars-idUSPEK23793120061123

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2004/01/what-does-civet-cat-taste-like.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-24034029

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-19-no-evidence-coronavirus-jumped-pangolin-people

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin

https://www.france24.com/en/20200403-gabon-bans-eating-of-pangolin-and-bats-amid-pandemic

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/reference/bushmeat-explained/

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Consider, too, that massive growth in Asia the last 30-40 yrs means a huge explosion in poultry and pig farming, as incomes rise a demand more animal proteins, less vegetable ones.  Much greater concentrations of pigs and birds near lots of humans in regions with poor sanitary conditions, little or no health regulations , etc - outbreaks of avian and swine flu bound to occurrto  (1918-20 Spanish flu was avian.)  Seems like wet e living on an unsustainable trajectory.

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Of course there will be more pandemics, but I suspect that human/animal contacts are becoming more rare as we move to a largely urban population.  Human population densities and inter-connections unlike anything that has ever existed before seem to be the new thing.  So perhaps less frequent but potentially more devastating?

BTW: 1918 pandemic is thought to have originated in Kansas, though there are dissenting opinions.  Plague and Hantavirus are endemic in the US. A few people die from them each year. If they ever make the jump to facile human-human transmission we could be truly fucked.

 Influenza is kind of a special case in that it undergoes massive genetic reassortment and readily jups between species.  It's basically new every year. And those darned birds migrate...

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Yes on the Hantavirus, Andes especially. That is some frightening stuff, luckily only very few cases known that went P2P

Plague only if we run out of antibiooooohshit. 

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2 hours ago, Matagi said:

antibiooooohshit. 

I see what you did there. ;)

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Did someone say Plague?

https://apple.news/A2FzLVTKsQFmbcGpJoUwNQw 

"As human beings around the world change their daily behavior to try to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, our absence is causing ripple effects in the urban ecosystem. Among the most noticeable changes: Rats are coming out of hiding. They’re taking to the streets in broad daylight and invading homes in a desperate search for food."

Anyone up for two epidemics in one?  

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15 hours ago, toddster said:

Of course there will be more pandemics, but I suspect that human/animal contacts are becoming more rare as we move to a largely urban population.  Human population densities and inter-connections unlike anything that has ever existed before seem to be the new thing.  So perhaps less frequent but potentially more devastating?

BTW: 1918 pandemic is thought to have originated in Kansas, though there are dissenting opinions.  Plague and Hantavirus are endemic in the US. A few people die from them each year. If they ever make the jump to facile human-human transmission we could be truly fucked.

 Influenza is kind of a special case in that it undergoes massive genetic reassortment and readily jups between species.  It's basically new every year. And those darned birds migrate...

I don’t have the article to cite the appalling numbers, but apparently one of the worst things in the last 30-50 years has been the headlong economic development in Asia. With rising incomes, people demand much more meat proteins, and much less vegetable ones.  Instead of pork or chicken once a week, consumption has exploded, as have populations, of course.  Very large scale poultry and swine farming in that part of the world (China, mostly, I think) with often terrible hygiene standards, proximity to humans.  Perfect avian and swine flu conditions.  Not good.  China also now a humongous consumer of milk - its a “we’re a developed country” status thing - more forests chopped down (less bat habitat, heavy virus carriers, they roost among humans, etc) for more and more fucking awful cows.  Tragic.

Scary article: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/29/can-the-world-quench-chinas-bottomless-thirst-for-milk

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