Kenny  Dumas

US new case rate already peaked?

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More likely the calm before the storm, sorry to say, we still have those states holding out over isolation, that is not going to end well for them.

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Our county's rate of confirmed infection rose by 50% today.

 

 

From two to three, still alarming. Latest case was an otherwise healthy 40 year old make.

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No - midwestern states started stay at home around middle of a march. 
 

we are seeing a pause - Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama and Texas are about to see the result of their governors being idiotic. 
 

With limited testing you’re not going to see a rise in cases until patients get sick and become admitted. IOW? Sudden rise in deaths. 

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how long do test results currently take?  Low results today and yesterday may just be because less people were tested over the weekend.

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2 hours ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Looks like it on Worldometer  Maybe death as well. 

Doubtful. The south is going to spike, I suspect, with their lack of sense on containment and isolation discipline coupled with some of the worst healthcare delivery in the U.S.

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21 minutes ago, SCARECROW said:

how long do test results currently take?  Low results today and yesterday may just be because less people were tested over the weekend.

24-48 for most hospital/state labs that aren’t sending it to quest 

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Another couple days to the layline eh?

I think we’re going to find out that our old sanitary ways were so lax that even small measures dramatically change the curve

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You have to look at it locally and regionally. Ohio Washington Illinois led the way. San Francisco did a better job taking it seriously than San Diego LA NYC. 
 

In Texas FloridaGeorgia and Missouri - county and city leaders took it more seriously than the governor. We’re seeing fragmented responses 

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4 hours ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Looks like it on Worldometer  Maybe death as well. 

No peak.

Peaked is around horizontal ...that isn't happening soon. 

Confirmed Cases both normalised graph per capita and without.

IMG_20200407_174717.jpg

IMG_20200407_174642.jpg

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Until testing is quick and accurate any projections are about the same as guessing which side of the course is favored.  It's a guess. The rate of testing in a lot of areas is still pathetic to almost non existent. This applies to the USA and certainly to Texas

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8 hours ago, Kenny Dumas said:

Looks like it on Worldometer  Maybe death as well. 

Which peak is that? Maybe this one is for real, but it's not a gimme yet.

peek.thumb.png.b3925ef71594f3cba1c58c4cad8a64d9.png

newTod.thumb.png.28919ebc6a59a76a171c230274c1c291.png

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If you look at https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america you'll see that US might be arriving at the peak of the first wave. Some states have clearly gotten through - Washington state is one. NYC is a couple of days from the estimated peak. Other states still have a week or two to go.

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If you look at the deaths graphs, it looks like fewer get recorded at weekends. So maybe best not to draw too many conclusions from a couple of days figures?

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7 hours ago, SCARECROW said:

how long do test results currently take?  Low results today and yesterday may just be because less people were tested over the weekend.

My niece was tested 2 weeks ago.. Still awaiting results 

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59 minutes ago, martin 'hoff said:

If you look at https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america you'll see that US might be arriving at the peak of the first wave. Some states have clearly gotten through - Washington state is one. NYC is a couple of days from the estimated peak. Other states still have a week or two to go.

I think this is key. Since the US response is handled at the state level you really need to look at it state-by-state. Washington and California are doing relatively well while New York is making progress. Missouri's case numbers were up by more than 10% and that is with relatively little testing (4462 tests per million as of yesterday). Rhode Island is up a similar amount but with considerable testing (8802/million). Who the hell knows what is happening in Oklahoma where their testing number is 702/million.

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Not sure it's worth trying to over-interpret day-to-day changes.  For one thing, the definition of "new cases" varies from state to state and keeps changing.  

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WTF are you all talking about, the South and Texas not containing? I've been home since March 13th. Orders have been on a county by county basis in Texas. Florida was the only holdout in the South if I remember correctly.

Louisiana is bad, but those people dont obey orders anyway. They are ungovernable. 

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9 minutes ago, Mark Set said:

WTF are you all talking about, the South and Texas not containing? I've been home since March 13th. Orders have been on a county by county basis in Texas. Florida was the only holdout in the South if I remember correctly.

Louisiana is bad, but those people dont obey orders anyway. They are ungovernable. 

It’s fragmented response and people’s perceptions are also based on whether they’re focusing on big picture or particulars. 
 

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7 hours ago, RobG said:

Which peak is that? Maybe this one is for real, but it's not a gimme yet.

peek.thumb.png.b3925ef71594f3cba1c58c4cad8a64d9.png

newTod.thumb.png.28919ebc6a59a76a171c230274c1c291.png

Of course there’s variability but if you squint through the haze of some fresh Oregon Green, they sure look like the front end of a normal distribution. 

Best argument for post-peak new case rate is that the rate of testing increase is superimposed on top of reality, so the actual new case rate should be even less than measured. 

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9 hours ago, toddster said:

Not sure it's worth trying to over-interpret day-to-day changes.  For one thing, the definition of "new cases" varies from state to state and keeps changing.  

As does deaths. People that die without being diagnosed positive for COVID-19 are not generally being tested for it post mortem, in many cases.

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56 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

As does deaths. People that die without being diagnosed positive for COVID-19 are not generally being tested for it post mortem, in many cases.

No but clinical presentation is being counted - the clinical providers are able to determine based on patient presentation and hospitals don’t have a disincentive to report it accordingly. 

the lost statistics are folks who die at home and the coroner offices may be overwhelmed or worse, shut down. 

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6 minutes ago, Miffy said:

No but clinical presentation is being counted - the clinical providers are able to determine based on patient presentation and hospitals don’t have a disincentive to report it accordingly. 

the lost statistics are folks who die at home and the coroner offices may be overwhelmed or worse, shut down. 

I think there may be some of that in NY, for sure.

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I’m rather worried for a lot of nursing homes using supposedly HIPAA to prevent their death tolls from being properly accounted. 
 

it is happening across the country even tho HIPPA clearly allows for information necessary to prevent epidemic/ID containment. 

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Yeah, exactly my point. Those number will show up in MMWR retrospective data in a year or so.  But we can’t see them now.

Meanwhile, political children point fingers at each other and scream about who is LYING!

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16 minutes ago, toddster said:

Yeah, exactly my point. Those number will show up in MMWR retrospective data in a year or so.  But we can’t see them now.

Meanwhile, political children point fingers at each other and scream about who is LYING!

There’s definitely lying. I mean the feds are intercepting PPE and devices without telling anyone how they’re being stockpiled or utilitized or redistributed. 

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12 minutes ago, toddster said:

Meanwhile, political children point fingers at each other and scream about who is LYING!

Unfortunately voters keep rewarding such behaviour: stimulus, response. Even amoebas get it.

47f60e0f4fa92cbf3e67089c879e0c34--scienc

 

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I think we need to apply Heinlein’s Law here. Sadly, I think the Feds Du Jour are too stupid to lie.  

Well, I mean, they reflexively lie about everything, but not for any reason.

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53 minutes ago, Miffy said:

I’m rather worried for a lot of nursing homes using supposedly HIPAA to prevent their death tolls from being properly accounted. 

it is happening across the country even tho HIPPA clearly allows for information necessary to prevent epidemic/ID containment. 

Miff in the UK the emediate fatalities are pulled together by the Department of Health which are based on deaths occurring among hospital patients from the 4 Unions in the UK.

However deaths in nursing homes are excluded. It is not until the Office of National Statistics sees death certificates with CONVID-19 mentioned so a large lag. A dozen died in just one nursing home last week in Glasgow.

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26744 today vs max of 34k four days ago. Sure be nice to get on the negative exponential part of the curve 

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2 hours ago, Kenny Dumas said:

26744 today vs max of 34k four days ago. Sure be nice to get on the negative exponential part of the curve 

Kenny early days.

All that's happening is States that got their shit together earlier and or their population density/demographics are on their side are pulling the national average down for BOTH Confirmed Cases and Fatalities on a per capita basis.

Then there is the large number of Cases that are "unconfirmed" (not tested) and may never be confirmed unless they become a fatality statistic. Hence Case Fatality Rates are pretty meaningless.

Hence fatalities per capita remain the best indicator, not cases. That trajectory is not flash.

Note: These Graphs are Log NOT Linear scale to account for exponential rates.

PER CAPITA RATES

IMG_20200409_112809.jpg

 

DEATHS

IMG_20200409_112845.jpg

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while they produce a tidier graph I think Logarithmic scales exaggerate any downturn and downplay the situation too much.  For example at a glance on the death graph above you'd say that the rate of New York deaths had been the same for the last 5 days rather than continuing to increase rapidly.

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48 minutes ago, SCARECROW said:

while they produce a tidier graph I think Logarithmic scales exaggerate any downturn and downplay the situation too much.  For example at a glance on the death graph above you'd say that the rate of New York deaths had been the same for the last 5 days rather than continuing to increase rapidly.

Yep Scare LOG scale harder to push up, but easier to push down. Here are the LINEAR comparisons that don't "downplay" as you say the exponential factor for Confirmed Cases and Fatalities per capita.  

Your point on NY appearing to have a steady rate when it hasn't,.. New Cases per Day in Linear exposes that further. 

Got to use different graphs to get the right picture and always per capita when comparing states or countries.

LINEAR PER CAPITA

IMG_20200409_120850.jpg

 

DEATHS

IMG_20200409_120920.jpg

 

LINEAR PER CAPITA - NEW CASES PER DAY

IMG_20200409_121824.jpg

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26 minutes ago, Varan said:

Y'all ready for round two,  the big one?

Varan only two rounds?

The red line is before Trump's UTurn which in his own words was 1 - 1.5 million deaths with "mitigation/moderated herd immunity" ONLY not "suppression/staged immunity" currently being used to get close to health care capacity, particularly acute or ICU care.

"Doing nothing" or "herd immunity max" not shown was 2.2 million deaths. 

Need a vaccine pronto or economy will be fucked.

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Flatten_the_curve1.gif.7c6afdabe4681600759ca630e52cd13e.gif

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The vaccine will take time.
There is only so much acceleration you can do without running the real risk of repeating some very painful lessons. 

The vaccine must work, be safe, and if at all possible it has to be something that can be produced in massive quantities. 

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my gut feeling is a vaccine will come out of China.  They've had longer to work on it and I'm guessing will be willing to move to human testing earlier.

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44 minutes ago, Chasm said:

The vaccine will take time.
There is only so much acceleration you can do without running the real risk of repeating some very painful lessons. 

The vaccine must work, be safe, and if at all possible it has to be something that can be produced in massive quantities. 

It’ll have to be a public health success of epic proportions repeated in multiple nations and multiple labs and manufacturing facilities the world over. 
 

the shit show that is the US gov at the moment? I don’t doubt for a moment a certain failed casino real estate guy will ruin it. 

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48 minutes ago, Chasm said:

The vaccine will take time.
There is only so much acceleration you can do without running the real risk of repeating some very painful lessons. 

The vaccine must work, be safe, and if at all possible it has to be something that can be produced in massive quantities. 

O ye, of much faith

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I am afraid that the forecast of the peaking for the US is for the most part wishful thinking. I am worried that there will be a high daily rate of new cases and death for a very long time, not the one to two weeks we have heard about. It may not increase on a daily basis, but it might not go down either.

My reasoning is that the US is not one homogeneous population facing the virus but a collection of different populations at different stages of the fight against COVID 19. So yeah, New-York state is most likely (hopefully...) close to its peak. But what about Louisiana, Illinois, Texas? As the earlier states will start to "cool off", other states will still be in the ramping up phase. When you look at the cumulative numbers for the whole nation, that will maintain high numbers, every day, for a long time. They will just not come from the same states...

An analogy would be to look at Europe as a whole. Hopefully Italy is on its way down, but what about UK, France, Germany?

 

My 2cents and I sure hope that I am wrong...

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I hope you are wrong as well but also being from Houston where the news is yesterday's positives were up 62%? With the pathetic level of testing we may well be in for a world of hurt.

 

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You’re not wrong - you’re just not clouding future projections with wishful thinking. 
 

the fact is the national community case load now or in two weeks is not going to be any lower than March 1 - we’re not going to be able to open things back up unless the community infection is down to isolated cases and deploying strict testing and isolation/financial support for isolating people. 
 

the disease isn’t burning itself out with herd immunity - that was never the purpose or effect of social distancing. 

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On 4/8/2020 at 11:58 PM, SCARECROW said:

my gut feeling is a vaccine will come out of China.  They've had longer to work on it and I'm guessing will be willing to move to human testing earlier.

I hope it comes out of Korea.

Then we should move fast to review/approve.

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2 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

I hope it comes out of Korea.

Then we should move fast to review/approve.

Or Cuba.  

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One big problem — and there are many — with the “case numbers” is that no one in consistently tracking recoveries. So the number just goes up and up forever.  But we know from new German testing that something like 94% of cases recover without any hospitalization. None of that is captured in the US, where mostly only hospitalized patients are being tracked.

In the absence of sufficient testing, amuch better metric is to count hospitalizations. Its easier to count, gives you a good nead on whether health care resources are stressed, and you know immediately when people are discharged.

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3 hours ago, Miffy said:

the disease isn’t burning itself out with herd immunity - that was never the purpose or effect of social distancing

Yep distancing and herd are mutually exclusive where one has a lot of deaths and the other death numbers you can't jump over. The US were originally lining up for the latter.

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On 4/11/2020 at 12:38 AM, jack_sparrow said:

The US were originally lining up for the latter.

Sorry buddy, my fellow citizens were mass congregating for it.

Can’t stop Darwin’s discovery

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"Are we there yet?" "Are we there yet?"

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Just now, MR.CLEAN said:

"Are we there yet?" "Are we there yet?"

Can I get a test?

And again next week?

I'm sure this is just going to disappear.

Let's all join hands and pray.

Dear god, forgive us for believing in thought, science and all the other nonsense you created.

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Ending social distancing because "the curve is flattening" is like taking off your parachute because  "I'm nearly at the ground."...

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7 minutes ago, hasher said:

....

Let's all join hands and pray.

Dear god, forgive us for believing in thought, science and all the other nonsense you created.

How do you pray and keep that God 2 meters (6ft) away ?

Asking for believers.

 

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4 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

How do you pray and keep that God 2 meters (6ft) away ?

Asking for believers.

 

Let us join hands because the creator believes not in science.

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I hope we are not going to witness "the greatest country in the world"TM start social distancing and other virus containment measures too late, resulting in unnecessary deaths, then end them too early, resulting in even more unnecessary deaths.

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I guess with new cases "stabilised" at around 30,000 per day and deaths at around 2,500 per day, I guess now is as good a time as any to get that curve trending up again…

 

1686357125_20200418DNUS.png.c0032ea9dc41d59aa1b925c05e52b902.png469706270_20200418DDUS.png.a1e11c031132406b6bc9afe31b2dac45.png

 

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1 hour ago, Rain Man said:

I hope we are not going to witness "the greatest country in the world"TM start social distancing and other virus containment measures too late, resulting in unnecessary deaths, then end them too early, resulting in even more unnecessary deaths.

Don't have to guess the "too late" plus the "under or ill-prepared" bit...that is real.

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4 hours ago, Zonker said:

Ending social distancing because "the curve is flattening" is like taking off your parachute because  "I'm nearly at the ground."...

Zonk that is only based on a "case curve" based on testing. It does not include actual cases untested. 

What about the "death curve" the one they give the scary name to.

Ending social distancing now is like taking the parachute off just as as you open up the throttle and point the nose for the sky.

Why do they not see this, you might ask??? It is seen but ignored.

"New Daily Deaths" are not assessed in the phased shut down easing criteria Guidelines for Opening Up America Again

EVu4hbaXkAA6mwG.thumb.jpeg.b3140b6e72693b912020af8827e12d6b.jpeg

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1 hour ago, stinky said:

the leveling off of new cases is in lock step with the leveling off of tests done.

That is tested and confirmed cases only largely driven by symptoms level pushed tests. Gets worse. 

Untested cases with mild symptoms or less there is no idea what proportion of US population that is. No idea on account of an appalling test rate per capita and zero tracing.

This is flying blind and ignoring the guage marked "new daily deaths" is issuing a warning.

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5 hours ago, RobG said:

I guess with new cases "stabilised" at around 30,000 per day and deaths at around 2,500 per day, I guess now is as good a time as any to get that curve trending up again

Rob yes the US not content with one train wreck they are lining up for a second and happy for the rest of the world to get murdered in the process.

1. Train Smash #1 was the US becoming the world "epicentre" for this pandemic by ignoring it for all of February.

IMG_20200418_184019.jpg.def4ba1ec3f1702f08b7732db485b579.jpg

The US Administrations own Timeline shows the only meaningful action taken was on 14 February being "the CDC began working with five labs to conduct “community-based influenza surveillance” to study and detect the spread of coronavirus."

17 April - White House - TIMELINE: THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S DECISIVE ACTIONS TO COMBAT THE CORONAVIRUS

While the above White House Timeline shows the US restricted it's borders to foriegn nationals on 2 February, it didn't "screen" all incoming US citizens and residents.

430,000 people have traveled from China to U.S. up to early April since Coronavirus surfaced.  There were 40,000 people on direct flights from China after 2 February and countless other flights from other ports with US nationals who had come from China and other hotspots. 

While ground zero might have been those ratfuckers in China, the US did far more to populate viral transmission around the world. How do we know this to be true? Simple stuff like this. Genomic Epidemiology of Coronavirus - Global Subsampling or more comprehensive data. 

2. Train Smash #2 appears to be coming for the world again on account of a US premature and fragmented easing between States, a virus that does not recognise borders and a phased shut down easing criteria with the catchy slogan "Opening Up America Again" This easing criteria excludes "new daily deaths' and is bolted to a fragmented testing regime that is shambolic with little or no tracing. 

"Opening Up America Again" is a slogan no different than "Make America Again." It may have driven domestic hat and Tshirt sales since 2016, but by the US ignoring WTO tarriff rules started a China trade war that impacted upon the entire world that they gave little thought to.

Americans will find they might have pulled down the virus walls domestically to repeat their train smash. That is their decision.

There is wide support to that domestically I'm sure. There is even SA posters here who subscribes to that. For instance:

@Controversial_posts is of the belief ventilator shortages are "red herrings", it only impacts the "fat and elderly," they are expendible and most cases are "positive no symptoms" or asymptomatic (he claims 60% at last count using only a 13% positive count with only 8% asymptomatic and pending on the navy ship Roosevelt). He even started a SA thread titled Lot of critics, but when should shutdown be lifted? to push the above line.

Maybe Controversial reads a headline like this New Jersey police find 18 bodies at care home's 'makeshift morgue' and says "I told you so"??

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Or @Starboard!! who honestly believes it is "under control" and it's "spreading mostly asymptomatically" (positive no symptoms) in accord with Controversials thinking and posting this on Controversials thread.

IMG_20200418_200418.jpg.d6e163df13250e350da505fa7aad7b7e.jpg

The common theme to Controversial and Starballs posts is they can't produce a shred of authoritive evidence to support their claims, despite many pressing them for it incl me. However it seems they don't have to.

The reality is both of their thinking accords exactly with that of the US Administration. So essentially the rest of the world can just fuck off. Well guess what? The world has had enough of US inward thinking shitfuckery and it is long overdue that it's citizens woke up to that reality.

If the US is happy to kill more of its citizens in favour of economics that is its decision.  However this time the world will not take it up the arse so easilly from Orangeman and accept Train Smash #2.

The walls to US mobility internationally will now be raised and the US will become deservedly so a global virus pariah for dishing up two train smashes. 

The world is not into silly fucking hats and unquestioning xenophobic fuckwits.

614673507_images-2020-04-18T183411_164.jpeg.02fa8301f4d3dbbd31b75bad01714198.jpeg

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6 hours ago, Rain Man said:

I hope we are not going to witness "the greatest country in the world"TM start social distancing and other virus containment measures too late, resulting in unnecessary deaths, then end them too early, resulting in even more unnecessary deaths.

We are witnessing "the greatest country in the world" knowing the best place to hide a body (being their virus fuckups), is in open view in a shipwreck.

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On 4/11/2020 at 10:46 AM, Miffy said:

...the disease isn’t burning itself out with herd immunity - that was never the purpose or effect of social distancing. 

This catastrofuck gets worse at every turn.

WHO MEDIA BRIEFING

No proof that antibody tests can show if someone who has been infected cannot be infected again.

Currently 'no evidence' that COVID-19 survivors have immunity, WHO warns

 

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What exactly is your angle or policy preference? That we all need to just panic and kill our selves before Covid gets us? Or fortress our houses until 2022?
 

Unlike you, I have proposed  a real solution, which is “pay extra to isolate the vulnerable, and build herd immunity among the healthy.” We all can see the data now, its killing old and unhealthy people, and spreads too fast to stop. 

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Fuck Americans are stupid.

We have such a diverse and dynamic culture but can’t seem to come together to stop a virus from killing our old and weak.

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48 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

WHO MEDIA BRIEFING

No proof that antibody tests can show if someone who has been infected cannot be infected again.

Also same WHO that claimed in January there was “no evidence of human-to-human transmission...

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What they actually said:

“Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,”

See the difference?

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1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

What exactly is your angle or policy preference? That we all need to just panic and kill our selves before Covid gets us? Or fortress our houses until 2022?

What exactly is your angle or policy preference? 

Cunt mine are WHO Guidelines for relaxation of suppression strategies as I have already posted elsewhere. Latest update Considerations in adjusting public health and social measures in the context of COVID-19

You have have then replied to my posts and critisised. Do you have dementia? Do you know more than WHO? What are your credentials?

1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

Unlike you, I have proposed  a real solution, which is “pay extra to isolate the vulnerable, and build herd immunity among the healthy.” We all can see the data now, its killing old and unhealthy people, and spreads too fast to stop

"Unlike you, I have proposed a real solution, which is “pay extra to isolate the vulnerable, and build herd  immunity among the healthy."

Cunt let us know how your herd or natural  immunity and isolating the elderly plan works out while selfish blind cunts like you go on their merry way.

Currently 'no evidence' that COVID-19 survivors have immunity, WHO warns

Coronavirus death toll could be double what we’re being told as so many die in care homes

PS. Mate what's it like being a Ventriloquist??

IMG_20200419_005149.jpg

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1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

Also same WHO that claimed in January there was “no evidence of human-to-human transmission...

ETfVDc5WkAQj6VE.jpeg.48011d1c8ace8bea64e8ceac3de7bb5e.jpeg

More bullshit.

WHO issued heads up notice 31 December and confirmed human to human transmission 1st/2nd week January.

The US Administration ignored this asleep at the wheel. Stayed asleep until March.

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Others didn't who started measures commencing 3 January, Sth Korea the first.

Fuck off with your lies.

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13 hours ago, Fiji Bitter said:

How do you pray and keep that God 2 meters (6ft) away ?

Asking for believers.

 

There's a god???

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This isn’t a thread about Bob Perry

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On 4/7/2020 at 1:29 PM, Kenny Dumas said:

Looks like it on Worldometer  Maybe death as well. 

Kenny I know you started this thread now approaching 2 weeks ago titled "US new case rate already peaked?" in good faith.

Mate your thread/post isn't aging well.

EVu4hbaXkAA6mwG.thumb.jpeg.b3140b6e72693b912020af8827e12d6b.jpeg

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That’s exactly what they’re doing in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

I’ve been stuck hearing- not seeing or trying to listen to Fox News here and it is nothing short of a propaganda machine for the Republican Party. They are the main “news” source for many of the lemmings. CNN is just as bad for the Democrats. Even NY Governor Cuomo’s brother Chris Cuomo, a popular CNN host is saying that he is tired of being a mouthpiece for things that he does not believe now that this pandemic has both parties more divided than ever. Keeping up ratings is hard to do if you let people hear unbiased news. 
 

And if it is t bad enough, Fox tv has Mike Lindell with Mypillow.com commercials 24/7 because no one else is advertising. He’s probably going to run for Governor of Minnesota in November if there are any of those idiots left after their protesting en masse yesterday.

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

The walls to US mobility internationally will now be raised and the US will become deservedly so a global virus pariah for dishing up two train smashes. 

 

Yes, and Trump will not understand his mistake even when this happens.  Countries should expect angry childish retaliation from Trump over this.  It will get nasty.  However, when the world slams the door shut maybe a few Trump supporters will wake up.  I know, dreaming again.

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32 minutes ago, Sail4beer said:

.... Keeping up ratings is hard to do if you let people hear unbiased news....
 

It seems to me one of the real challenges is media economics.

Talk television is much cheaper to produce than news. Talk television is more successful developing a regular audience (which is the actual product being sold – advertisers are the customers not viewers they are the product). It’s easier to develop and sustain that audience if you add in a little or a lot of political orientation/pandering.

I regularly watch both CNN and Fox, as sort of penance (for real and imagined failures to understand the world and contribute to it). I find CNN a bit more credible than the news efforts from Fox but that’s partly a reflection of my political views. BUT I don’t find CNN much use as an actual news source. Generally CNN focuses on a narrow range of subjects easily covered by their installed infrastructure base and then over narrates those topics. I say over narrates because it is not really over covering or reporting. Generally it is the same information recast in slightly different form. Mostly its been coverage of the “very stable genius” now supplanted by Covid 19 7/24.

While DJT and C-19 are certainly important items...there really has been a lot going on in the world since November 2016 that CNN viewers would know nothing, or very little about if they get their news from CNN (and I’d suggest they’d get even less from Fox).

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14 minutes ago, Rain Man said:

Yes, and Trump will not understand his mistake even when this happens.  Countries should expect angry childish retaliation from Trump over this.  It will get nasty.  However, when the world slams the door shut maybe a few Trump supporters will wake up.  I know, dreaming again.

Trudeau did another good deed in convincing Trump to keep the Canada/US border closed for another month. Probably made Trump think it was his idea. We already have way too many cases that originated in the US before the travel ban.

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17 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Talk television is much cheaper to produce than news.

KC you don't have a public broadcaster which while many critisise being either pro or anti Govt, is a big plus. Fox is like a White House advertorial...to the extent Trump even recirculates it.

 

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7 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

KC you don't have a public broadcaster which while many critisise being either pro or anti Govt, is a big plus. Fox is like a White House advertorial...to the extent Trump even recirculates it.

 

But I have done business with the BBC (as a service provider related to the transition a way from broadcast).

I do think there is an important role for public funding of news media. I believe a big challenge of the first half of the 21st century will be collapse of the business model for news media.

Who buys newspapers anymore. Who actual pays out money for quality news coverage...

Combine that with the proliferation of social media supported fake news / propaganda / agent provocateur communications...

That creates a fundamental challenge for effective democracy which depends on at least a marginally informed electorate.

I’m not sure what the solution is. While I believe public funding may be part of the solution I don’t think government (or qango) ownership is. So much of what the BBC, CBC, ABC....does is not really core to a public service mandate. I’d like to see something with the independence of a central bank overseeing investment in purchasing/paying for independently developed (and peer/board reviewed) news coverage...

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9 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Who buys newspapers anymore. Who actual pays out money for quality news coverage...

I think I might be a rarity. Quality national daily broadsheet to spill coffee over plus some international online subscriptions. Never watch broadcast news.

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10 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Who actual pays out money for quality news coverage...

I do.  

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12 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I think I might be a rarity. Quality national daily broadsheet to spill coffee over plus some international online subscriptions. Never watch broadcast news.

 

10 minutes ago, Rain Man said:

I do.  

And there just are not enough of you...

And maybe more important...who buys adds in Newspapers anymore...

Subscribers were never the revenue source, they were the product,...and there are not enough of you anymore...

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

This catastrofuck gets worse at every turn.

WHO MEDIA BRIEFING

No proof that antibody tests can show if someone who has been infected cannot be infected again.

Currently 'no evidence' that COVID-19 survivors have immunity, WHO warns

 

I’m too sad over the number of people killed/to be dying while certain “leaders” continue to obsess over ratings or not taking responsibility but want praise and people indulging him. 
 

I don’t know what the future holds but I’m done talking about it.

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I hope you can’t get re-infected. I almost coughed my lungs out last month.

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40 minutes ago, Sail4beer said:

I hope you can’t get re-infected. I almost coughed my lungs out last month.

While it seems possible to become re-infected, the good news is that if you do, the effect of the virus will likely be more muted - i.e. you will become less ill the second time.  But I think that is the case for most viruses.

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Yep

1904996685_giphy(18).gif.f02b33479a7b073de1a50adab80d809a.gif

Not a bad visual representation of the herd immunity concept.  Eventually that hole will fill up.

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

I think I might be a rarity. Quality national daily broadsheet to spill coffee over plus some international online subscriptions. Never watch broadcast news.

Paper lands on the front lawn every morning.  Park my butt at the breakfast table and read and admire the whole production every day. 

A ritual I love. 

On-line subscription as well to the NYT and WSJ.  

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