Kenny  Dumas

US new case rate already peaked?

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On 4/6/2020 at 11:29 PM, Kenny Dumas said:

Looks like it on Worldometer  Maybe death as well. 

have we peaked yet?

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33 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

have we peaked yet?

Negative Ghostrider, the pattern is full.

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4 hours ago, Kenny Dumas said:

You’d think anyone who’s making a living in data analysis would post 7 day rolling averages properly. 

"You’d think anyone who’s making a living  in data analysis..."

Actuaries do exactly that. Death data from Governments is now being thrown in the bin.

From the UK ....Under-Reporting by 60% or approx 10,000 missing deaths

Simply analysing total deaths 2020 and past total deaths all causes.

- death rates 77% higher than the same week last year
- excess deaths 30% higher than COVID-19 deaths
- They estimate there have been 30,000 excess deaths in the UK!

EWIkf_yXsAUnAt8.jpeg.1bb626742d1cb57190424b07671dc37c.jpeg

Now being looked at in the US.

Governments considering reopening economies frozen by restrictions to limit the spread of the new coronavirus are struggling to determine how deadly it is. With tests for the virus still in short supply, many analysts are looking to the blunter measure of total deaths. By comparing weekly mortality statistics for this year with past years.

In parts of the U.S. and Europe, weekly fatalities from all causes are up by more than 25%, and in some places by almost 80%.

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3 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

have we peaked yet?

When you don't have a fucking clue how far up the mountain you are ....guess what??

7 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Death data from Governments is now being thrown in the bin....

 

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14 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

"You’d think anyone who’s making a living  in data analysis..."

Actuaries do exactly that. Death data from Governments is now being thrown in the bin.

From the UK ....Under-Reporting by 60% or approx 10,000 missing deaths

Simply analysing total deaths 2020 and past total deaths all causes.

- death rates 77% higher than the same week last year
- excess deaths 30% higher than COVID-19 deaths
- They estimate there have been 30,000 excess deaths in the UK!

EWIkf_yXsAUnAt8.jpeg.1bb626742d1cb57190424b07671dc37c.jpeg

Now being looked at in the US.

Governments considering reopening economies frozen by restrictions to limit the spread of the new coronavirus are struggling to determine how deadly it is. With tests for the virus still in short supply, many analysts are looking to the blunter measure of total deaths. By comparing weekly mortality statistics for this year with past years.

In parts of the U.S. and Europe, weekly fatalities from all causes are up by more than 25%, and in some places by almost 80%.

Between March 11 and April 13, NYC reported 18,551 deaths.  Normal monthly average is 4,491.

The City blamed COVID-19 for 10,367 of them. 

Leaving 8,184, not attributed to the virus.  In a City that normally averages 4,491 a month.

Didn't stop the crazies (who, of course, hadn't bothered to look at the numbers) from claiming NYC is over-attributing deaths to the virus, by including "probables" in that 10k.

 

The infodemic is more deadly than the pandemic.

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3 hours ago, frenchie said:

The infodemic is more deadly than the pandemic

Yep. Most people think there is only one global war happening, the virus.

There is also a propaganda war going full tilt in a lot of places. There will be a very public WTF day of reakoning moment for them down the line there is no escaping from though.

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13 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

There will be a very public WTF day of reakoning moment for them down the line there is no escaping from though.

Your lips to god's ear...

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19 hours ago, frenchie said:

...Didn't stop the crazies (who, of course, hadn't bothered to look at the numbers) from claiming.....

The infodemic is more deadly than the pandemic.

 

16 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

There is also a propaganda war going full  tilt in a lot of places .There will be a very public WTF day of reakoning moment for them down the line there is no escaping from though.

2 hours ago, frenchie said:

Your lips to god's ear...

Not my lips.. national statisticians lips that are just starting to move due to the time lag.

The fragmented nature of the US makes it harder so I will follow @Laurent suggestion here and use Europe.

On 4/11/2020 at 9:19 AM, Laurent said:

...My reasoning is that the US is not one homogeneous population facing the virus but a collection of different populations at different stages of the fight against COVID 19....

...An analogy would be to look at Europe as a whole....

The crazies work on many fronts so let's select two being;

- "This is only a old people's disease" and "body bag" counts and who is in them should be ignored.

- In essence it is just like a bad flu season and only the elderly are at risk.

- These whack-jobs prefer "hospitalisation recoveries" thinking it excludes the elderly and to ignore "case rates" to take advantage of testing in places like the US is shit. Their founding approach is age data is buried for quite a while.

Well is it??

So to Europe. These two graphs are from a basket of 24 European or EuroMOMO partner  countries generated to include up until last week showing the pooled weekly total number of "all deaths" by age group. You can an see clearly the impact of the normal winter flu season in past years.

As you can see these two graphs send to the bottom of the ocean where it belongs that "this is only a old people's disease." 

IMG_20200424_182509.jpg.d7662b5aef0091f53020232f4056582d.jpg

IMG_20200424_182137.thumb.jpg.d5b41fb2e93dcfe65c966a43782eb97c.jpg

I would be remiss if I didn't identify a SA propagandist of "this is only a old people's disease"  @Controversial_posts and his let's just euthanase them while the absence of stats let us get away with our "death-cult" approach.

Those graphs show he and his kind are actually promoting murdering a much wider selection of society.

IMG_20200424_160238.jpg.0f2599cf1950693017a846907ab29203.jpg

IMG_20200419_211306.jpg.2c8dc854fe7ff290b4c0ff655381a28b.jpg

On 4/11/2020 at 1:28 PM, Controversial_posts said:

.In the absence of sufficient testing, a much better metric is to count hospitalizations. Its easier to count,.....you know immediately when people are discharged.

 

On 4/18/2020 at 11:40 PM, Controversial_posts said:

....Unlike you, I have proposed  a real solution, which is “pay extra to isolate the vulnerable, and build herd immunity among the healthy.” We all can see the data now, its killing old and unhealthy people, and spreads too fast to stop. 

 

On 4/19/2020 at 4:31 PM, Controversial_posts said:

..The death rate is a lagging indicator, only tells you who was getting infected days /weeks ago...

..New case rate is almost entirely based on testing capacity, all it predicts is whether or not you are testing people..

 

Quote

 

 

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I have been keeping daily track of the reported cases in the US ....early on the case count was increasing upper teens% to lower 20'S% on a daily basis...over the last week the daily increases have dropped to the 3%+ area.......the death rates early on were increasing in the upper teens % and over the last week the daily death increases has been in the 4-6% area...the one count that has not looked good is the total death count as compared to the total case count...early on it was around  1.5-1.7%....more receently it has come in at 5.5%+_...that death rate to total case count has risen about every day....

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7 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

who will really win the peak? I vote India.

Brazil gonna crush it but no one left to count

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3 minutes ago, shavdog said:

I have been keeping daily track of the reported cases in the US ....early on the case count was increasing upper teens% to lower 20'S% on a daily basis...over the last week the daily increases have dropped to the 3%+ area.......the death rates early on were increasing in the upper teens % and over the last week the daily death increases has been in the 4-6% area...the one count that has not looked good is the total death count as compared to the total case count...early on it was around  1.5-1.7%....more receently it has come in at 5.5%+_...that death rate to total case count has risen about every day....

Well "new case count" is a bogus number and always has been. It is dependent on testing. Death is a lagging indicator but true.

around 20% of people in NY City have antibodies. That puts the case count at about 8% of true cases there!

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31 minutes ago, shavdog said:

I have been keeping daily track of the reported cases in the US ..

50,372 people could not be reached for comment about that.

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On 4/6/2020 at 11:29 PM, Kenny Dumas said:

Looks like it on Worldometer  Maybe death as well. 

Peaked yet?

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

The plan looks to be wanting it higher.

 

 

Those fearful of losing their power have few options left at this point.  If they can't get the economy restarted, they definitely lose the white house.

Problem is that if they encourage people to get back to work and a second wave kicks in and causes another lockdown - especially in states not hit too hard yet - they lose the white house, the senate, all the independents, and quite a few GOPers, and some of those impacts will last for a generation.

They have to go all-in on opening the economy and hoping Jeebus will save them.

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16 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

They have to go all-in on opening the economy and hoping Jeebus will save them.

 I'm not sure that will include all those who swallowed disinfectant.

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1 hour ago, fastyacht said:

who will really win the peak? I vote India.

I dunno..Indian City of Tiruppur have a novel way of dealing with breaches in social distancing  .... put them in an ambulance with a fake Convid patient.

 

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9 hours ago, fastyacht said:

who will really win the peak? I vote India.

image.thumb.png.53c817ad80daa4d1464db358e0c2ccce.png

Reduce the new cases per day by testing less.  Increase the new cases per day by testing more.   

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On 4/7/2020 at 1:19 AM, Miffy said:

You have to look at it locally and regionally. Ohio Washington Illinois led the way. San Francisco did a better job taking it seriously than San Diego LA NYC. 
 

In Texas FloridaGeorgia and Missouri - county and city leaders took it more seriously than the governor. We’re seeing fragmented responses 

Florida locals taking it seriously?  Maybe if they have no beach.

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14 minutes ago, Rok Dog said:

Reduce the new cases per day by testing less.  Increase the new cases per day by testing more.   

So true. However Convid numbers going in the front door of hospital and those going out the backdoor in a body bag dead from "any" cause to join those who didn't die in a hospital can't be fudged.

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On 4/24/2020 at 5:09 AM, jack_sparrow said:

 

Not my lips.. national statisticians lips that are just starting to move due to the time lag.

(snip)

 

I meant the part about there being a public reckoning they wouldn't manage to evade.  Things work a little different, this side of the pond.

(See: Iraq War, 2008 economic crisis, etc.)

 

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Comparative Daily Case numbers (7 day rolling average) pretty useless with some testing anything that walks to those whose knowledge of cases is only by the lineup at the hospital front door.

So mandatory lockdowns for some 3.9bn people in 92 countries by two weeks ago. Some early some not and also having different transmission rates occuring at time of their lockdown.

A tiered snapshot on a per capita basis of some western countries. Yet some upper tier at peak like US coming out of lockdown at same time or earlier than lower tiers and well past peak. Big differences in mortality per capita not shown. For instance UK twice US, Germany (big test/tracer) a fraction of both.

20200425_WOC281.png

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Comparative Daily Case numbers (7 day rolling average) pretty useless with some testing anything that walks to those whose knowledge of cases is only by the lineup at the hospital front door.

So mandatory lockdowns for some 3.9bn people in 92 countries by two weeks ago. Some early some not and also having different transmission rates occuring at time of their lockdown.

A tiered snapshot on a per capita basis of some western countries. Yet some upper tier at peak like US coming out of lockdown at same time or earlier than lower tiers and well past peak. Big differences in mortality per capita not shown. For instance UK twice US, Germany (big test/tracer) a fraction of both.

20200425_WOC281.png

Only the US has a perfect sine wave.

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17 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

Only the US has a perfect sine wave.

Will get very ugly if it goes like this.

images - 2020-04-25T221935.816.jpeg

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Doesn't look like we've passed the 'peak' on this graph:

image.thumb.png.e89138ce1bc371387c528271dd3c30d1.png

 

image.png

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50 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

Those curves are ancient history.

Ice Age...I must have been away that day :D

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On 4/7/2020 at 2:08 AM, Kenny Dumas said:

Another couple days to the layline eh?

I think we’re going to find out that our old sanitary ways were so lax that even small measures dramatically change the curve

I wote a program to project the new cases and/or death curves along the lines described in this Numberfile video. Playing with result, it surprising how sensitive it is to little parameter changes. 

 

By the way, that simple model does not seem to handle the current scenario, marked by rapid (45 day) rise to the peak and only a small portion of the population infected.  

 

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On 4/24/2020 at 10:49 AM, fastyacht said:

Well "new case count" is a bogus number and always has been. It is dependent on testing. Death is a lagging indicator but true.

around 20% of people in NY City have antibodies. That puts the case count at about 8% of true cases there!

Death rate is only true indicator if all who die of c-19 are identified and counted or if a rigorous comparison of current death rates to base line

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30 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Death rate is only true indicator if all who die of c-19 are identified and counted or if a rigorous comparison of current death rates to base line

And New York has about 5,000 deaths that are suspicuous--to add to the roughly 15K....so that's the delta more or less. But testing positive to actual infection is an order of magnitude--according to the recdent serological testing

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24 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

And New York has about 5,000 deaths that are suspicuous--to add to the roughly 15K....

That 19k excess equals 4k shortfall as of the 22nd not really suspicious simply needs a Covid related label but didn't get one. For instance many will be people who didn't get access when hospitals were swamped and died or primary COD not Covid. It does remove argument Covid overcounted by other causes.

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On 4/20/2020 at 3:03 PM, jack_sparrow said:

The US is also going to be presented with complex urban versus rural responses.

We're pretty screwed on that front, since our means of electing the President and controlling the senate rely on a quaint election structure from a time when > 85% of the population lived in rural areas.

Mitch McConnell's three vote majority represents 45% of the population and a whole lot of empty space and he's calling the shots.

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On 4/20/2020 at 1:03 PM, jack_sparrow said:

.....Without having a robust test/trace regime the US are going to be flying blind when lifting suppression.

The US death rate will probably be on a plateau or close to for a long time and not drop like more densely populated countries.

EV_fhQYWoAIzapf.thumb.jpeg.9dbd971ea166be5e271dc91e109fc471.jpeg

^^^^^^ Two weeks ago.

 

On 4/25/2020 at 10:20 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Will get very ugly if it goes like this.

images - 2020-04-25T221935.816.jpeg

Two weeks later

EXC7enTXYAEZrW7.jpeg

 

That's 3 weeks now on the Table Top ticking over at around 2,000 fatalities per day....this rate isn't going down markedly when having a non existent test/trace program and also lifting suppression. The only cases measure will be those with symptoms lining up for a test when it is too late. 

That does explain however why death rates didn't make it into the Open up America Guidelines.

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Then someone says hey but there is a lag in deaths and cases are on the way down so this plateau won't last long.

Well actually NO because if you pull out New York, New Cases per Day have PLATEAUED, in fact risen to a new one in the last week.

And Testing per Day (no tracing) if you pull out New York, it's PLATEAUED too as it is generally mirroring new cases with no tracing occuring.

3 plateaus in epidemia world, as opposed to political world equals one long US death plateau... no slippery slide.

EXDHdJgXQAoxCuE.jpeg

EXDPReHWoAQXBED.jpeg

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i found this on the CDC web site

total case numbers peaked?...maybe, who would know if you do not test

think jack has the idea that the deaths could go on for awhile

these are excess deaths above average

sort of takes it outside testing, case numbers etc

ummmm....lets think....why would these be?.....oh COVID? maybe?

first one is us less NYC

second is NYC

yes only a short window so far, will be interesting to see what plays out

has to spread if people start going back to normal, the second and third waves?

 

and for jacks mate dd...refer the above average deaths from the previous winter, not a shade on this year, bit harsher than the flu hey?

CDC table 1.PNG

CDC Table 2.PNG

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1 hour ago, furr_ball said:

"I found this on the CDC web site. 

total case numbers peaked?...maybe, who would know if you do not test

think jack has the idea that the deaths could go on for awhile"

"total case numbers peaked" a phrase recently coming into fashion in some political capitals around the world. Yes there is how it is constructed as you say, but also there is how it's said?

That version is like saying "met a beautiful girl" and stopping.

If a layperson in the street heard these extra words would they think any differently. 

"Total case numbers peaked" ADDING EITHER "but not decreasing" OR decreasing at a very-fast/fast/slow/very-slow rate."

Which version for describing Coronavirus cases sounds better for a politician wanting to ease suppression?

The "met a beautiful girl" OR "met a beautiful girl and she said fuck off" version?

There is always pictures and imagining what is the comparative number of bodies under each peak.

images - 2020-05-03T154259.298.jpeg

images - 2020-05-03T153640.057.jpeg

887245156_images-2020-04-25T221935_816.jpeg.db47a0fee12b9e590be6960d31dee169.jpeg

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On 4/25/2020 at 7:02 AM, fastyacht said:

Only the US has a perfect sine wave.

US has much much higher number of citizens.   US is hoarding tests for first responders, medical/health workers, and those who appear to be so sick they likely need hospitalization.

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