The Dark Knight

The Swedish Experiment

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5 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

I learn a lot about humanity and how people think in threads like this.

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

Do you realise that you are a complete fucking moron?

I tend to agree with you that the death rate is pretty low especially when you consider how many people normally die from other illnesses, car accidents gunshots (in 3rd world countries like Honduras, Swaziland and USA).

HOWEVER Covid-19 in countries that have not enforced lockdowns, has resulted in large numbers of people to be hospitalised and occupying beds in ICU units at a rate that far exceeds their health systems capacity. This has resulted in deaths of people who would normally be treated and survive, because hospitals can't cope.

Covid-19 has resulted in doctors and nurses being worked off their feet, some catching covid-19 and dying and being away from their families to protect them. There have been cases of doctors and nurses being pushed beyond their limit and committing suicide. Expect to see medicos suffering from PTSD from dealing with so many deaths.

I suggest that you go and volunteer to work as an orderly in a covid-19 ward for a few days.

 

 

Strangely, having a view different than yours, doesn't make me a moron. That's not how intelligence is measured.

I have a close friend who is a Doc in the midwest.
She has argued with me tooth and nail on this, she disagrees with my views.

So, I listen to her, as I respect her judgement and experience.
 

Today, she and her boyfriend are on a plane going for a long weekend to goof off.
What actually happened to her was, most of her hours were cut, and so was her pay.
There wasn't enough work for her clinic, so they cut things to the bone.

My two other friends in the medical field, experienced this as well.
They were furloughed, laid off (nurse and a technician), and only just got back to full time.

So, the three people I know in the medical field (two agree with my view on covid, one does not), all experienced the opposite of this.

 

You can show me stories written by a tearful media telling the opposite story - but that doesn't make mine untrue.
 

The thing that is so strange to me, is the mob mentality on display.
Ok, so everyone agrees it wasn't as bad as expected.
The virus wasn't as deadly.
So many less people died.

Shouldn't you guys all be jumping up and down and saying 'we did it, thanks everyone'
Nope, you're mad.  You want to see the world burn, to prove some point of yours I guess?  I'm not really sure what the motivation is now.

 

I said in January, this was much ado about nothing - and from my perspective, the data has proven me 95% correct.
Now, everyone can say 'but 400,000 people died!!!! you idiot!!'   And then the cycle will start again.
No context, no big picture thinking - just a weird tribal FEAR, that no logic can undo I guess??  

 

I'm all about the macro here. Not the micro story that the news media sells to you.

Oh look, the BBC wrote a story about an EMT to get clicks.  *shocked!*
Oh, the Atlantic wrote the most sensational piece ever on traveling by airlines *surprise!*

You guys all got sold here. You watch the news, buy into the hype, and make the media companies rich.
While you're the product being sold to, and sold yourselves.

 

I will keep maintaining, in a kind and rational way, that we got the response here really wrong.
I think Sweden nailed it, personally, and I wish the rest of the world had done the same.
I don't care what a politicians grovels to the media about to save face.
I care about results and action.
When I look at the economic costs of countries who locked down, vs. those that don't - and a compare the death rates...


I come to the conclusion that we would have prevented a lot less suffering, in total, if we had done nothing.
If nothing wasn't an option - you ask people to wear masks and quarantine the infirm.

We went the full on wrong side, and I think the harm and suffering will be at least 100x the deaths from CV.

 

It's strange too, last week 3 Emirates Flight Attendants committed suicide.
We've got suicide all over the world rising.
British Airways is going to cut another 12,000 people, and there is suicide there too.
But... somehow, that's ok.

You guys, the Moral High Ground Seekers... to you, it's collateral damage.
Lives lost in the Nobel Quest to Eradicate the Deadly Coronavirus, it's acceptable!!

But when I suggest the same thing in the broader context - I'm the asshole.
 

Again, I'm open to new data, and I'm open to new ideas.
But when your hypocrisy is on display, I don't know how you expect anyone to change their mind.

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8 hours ago, Keith said:

 

The funny thing is, you posting a video to a classic Monty Python bit, is, actually amusing to me.
But, not for the reasons you think.

Is that really the best way to convince someone with data or facts?
No words?
It's the same in the ILCA thread. 

I realize the internet is free and anonymous, and you can post here and chuckle and move on.
But, it doesn't speak to a higher order of thinking that you would assume *some* sailors have - to just reply to a post with a video.

Again, I said earlier, it's like a bunch of high school guys high-fiving each other.

'huh huh, yeah dude, you posted a video in a thread, you totally showed him. '
 

Congrats, I'm stunned by the creativity.

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33 minutes ago, BlatantEcho said:

I think Sweden nailed it, personally, and I wish the rest of the world had done the same.

and this is why you are a moron...

You are clearly incapable of understanding the differences between Sweden and the rest of the world that makes Sweden capable of following the approach they have done and that the same approach anywhere else would result in a much higher infection rate. 

The Swedish approach in US, Aus, UK and so one would result in a significantly higher transmission and death rate. Hospitals would be overwhelmed, doctors and nurses dropping like flies. It would be like the early days in Italy.

 

Sweden can "get away" with their approach because Swedes are natural social distancers, live in the highest portion of single person households, rarely live in multi generational households and has a low population density. They are however paying the price of a poor health system. 

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5 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

The funny thing is, you posting a video to a classic Monty Python bit, is, actually amusing to me.

Thanks, here's one more for you to enjoy.......

 

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5 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

Sweden can "get away" with their approach because Swedes are natural social distancers, live in the highest portion of single person households, rarely live in multi generational households and has a low population density. They are however paying the price of a poor health system. 

Let's be honest, Sweden aren't exactly getting away with it.  7th highest on a deaths/population and the only country in the top 10 still with an increasing case rate.

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53 minutes ago, SCARECROW said:

Let's be honest, Sweden aren't exactly getting away with it.  7th highest on a deaths/population and the only country in the top 10 still with an increasing case rate.

that's why I quoted "get away". 

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7 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

that's why I quoted "get away". 

I figured but thought it might be a bit subtle for some....

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7 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

that's why I quoted "get away". 

 

7 hours ago, SCARECROW said:

I figured but thought it might be a bit subtle for some....

The "getaway' was the transmission rate at <10% was around one-sixth less than what they bargained for. Multiply current deaths by six for starters. 

You also "get away" by partway fessing up and modifying your strategy.

All for the subtlety challenged that is :P

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

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On 6/14/2020 at 2:57 AM, The Dark Knight said:

and this is why you are a moron...

Stop feeding troll. :P

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On 6/14/2020 at 11:11 AM, BlatantEcho said:

The thing that is so strange to me, is the mob mentality on display. What's on display is a society working together, and some ppl bitching about it.
Ok, so everyone agrees it wasn't as bad as expected. No, they don't.
The virus wasn't as deadly.
So many less people died. It's not over yet and you are blatantly ignoring the positive affects of preventative measures already taken.

Shouldn't you guys all be jumping up and down and saying 'we did it, thanks everyone' Again, it's not over yet.
Nope, you're mad.  You want to see the world burn, to prove some point of yours I guess?  I'm not really sure what the motivation is now. We are trying to enlighten your dreary opinion. The denialists are proving the point by not implementing good preventative measures. The rest of us are watching and shaking our heads in dismay. Politics is playing too big a role in decision making as opposed to good medical advice.

Sorry for feeding the troll.

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9 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

Trolls need to eat. That's why we feed our pet, Astro.

 

7 minutes ago, Ncik said:

Sorry for feeding the troll.

Yeah your right, it’s just another care in the community project. With any luck @LB 15 still has the gimp suit and restraints rigged up in the cellar. 

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1 hour ago, mad said:

 

Yeah your right, it’s just another care in the community project. With any luck @LB 15 still has the gimp suit and restraints rigged up in the cellar. 

LB & Astro in his cellar

 

CgChtbbXEAAFtz5.jpg

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21 hours ago, Ncik said:

Politics is playing too big a role in decision making as opposed to good medical advice.

That's totally true.

 

A virus with a survival rate 99.74% doesn't really require much in the way of 'decision making'
Once we learned that, we should have relaxed everything and moved on.  But, here we are, people still hyping this up as the worst thing since polio.


~35Million (35,000,000) people have died of other things in the last 7 months.
Should we start a thread for them too? 

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6 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

 

A virus with a survival rate 99.74% doesn't really require much in the way of 'decision making'

 

you keep quoting this percentage........where do you pull that from?

are you sure you are dividing the correct numbers

please show your workings...

last time i did maths when i divide the discharged/recovered number below by the case number above i sorta agree with the 91%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

covid numbers.PNG

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57 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

It had to happen Sweden has lost the plot again.....test positive and keep going to work. 

Sticking with their May 14 - Guidance on criteria for assessing the freedom of infection at covid-19

Remains in world Top 10 (#6) for daily deaths (7 day rolling average). 

EaptupdXkAAWZ1q.jpeg

Well a country has finally wrestled the UK for its stupid prize!  Well done Sweden. 

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On 6/16/2020 at 8:59 PM, furr_ball said:

you keep quoting this percentage........where do you pull that from?

are you sure you are dividing the correct numbers

please show your workings...

last time i did maths when i divide the discharged/recovered number below by the case number above i sorta agree with the 91%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

covid numbers.PNG

The issue with the 91% is that there is a large number of people that were infected yet may never have tested. These numbers are only reflective of those who tested/ were tested.

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https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/new-beijing-outbreak-raises-fears-for-the-rest-of-the-world-20200618-p553pg.html

 

Sweden very slow to achieve herd immunity despite relaxed virus measures

 

London: Sweden's state epidemiologist says the country has been "surprisingly slow" at achieving herd immunity, even though it shunned the lockdown measures adopted by other countries.

The death toll in Sweden passed 5000 on Wednesday, from more than 54,500 infections. The Scandinavian nation has recorded one of the highest COVID-19 mortality rates in the world with a per capita death rate of 487 per 1 million people — about 10 times higher than neighbouring Norway.

Fans of Hammarby football club socialise in a Stockholm park before a match on Sunday.

Fans of Hammarby football club socialise in a Stockholm park before a match on Sunday. CREDIT:GETTY IMA

Yet an analysis by Werlabs AB of 50,000 tests showed that only 14 per cent of those living in the Stockholm region have tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.

In Bergamo, considered to be the centre of Italy's deadly outbreak, about 57 per cent of people had antibodies. Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK's chief scientific adviser estimated that 60 per cent of a country's population would need to be infected for it to achieve herd immunity from the novel coronavirus.

Sweden chose not to implement a strict lockdown and schools, shops and restaurants have remained open through the pandemic. Instead, the government deferred to scientific advice and recommended Swedes observe social distancing.

There had been expectations this would have allowed Sweden to achieve herd immunity without imposing economically and socially crippling measures.People sit at tables outside a cafe at Kungstradgarden in Stockholm, Sweden.

People sit at tables outside a cafe at Kungstradgarden in Stockholm, Sweden.CREDIT:BLOOMBER

However, in an interview with Swedish Radio, Anders Tegnell, the country's chief epidemiologist, admitted that immunity rates were low and that it was "difficult to explain why this is so". Tegnell and Prime Minister Stefan Lofven have long defended the softer approach, stating the disease was not something that could be defeated with a short-term fix but that people must learn to live with the virus.

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55 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/new-beijing-outbreak-raises-fears-for-the-rest-of-the-world-20200618-p553pg.html

 

Sweden very slow to achieve herd immunity despite relaxed virus measures

 

London: Sweden's state epidemiologist says the country has been "surprisingly slow" at achieving herd immunity, even though it shunned the lockdown measures adopted by other countries.

The death toll in Sweden passed 5000 on Wednesday, from more than 54,500 infections. The Scandinavian nation has recorded one of the highest COVID-19 mortality rates in the world with a per capita death rate of 487 per 1 million people — about 10 times higher than neighbouring Norway.

Fans of Hammarby football club socialise in a Stockholm park before a match on Sunday.

Fans of Hammarby football club socialise in a Stockholm park before a match on Sunday. CREDIT:GETTY IMA

Yet an analysis by Werlabs AB of 50,000 tests showed that only 14 per cent of those living in the Stockholm region have tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.

In Bergamo, considered to be the centre of Italy's deadly outbreak, about 57 per cent of people had antibodies. Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK's chief scientific adviser estimated that 60 per cent of a country's population would need to be infected for it to achieve herd immunity from the novel coronavirus.

Sweden chose not to implement a strict lockdown and schools, shops and restaurants have remained open through the pandemic. Instead, the government deferred to scientific advice and recommended Swedes observe social distancing.

There had been expectations this would have allowed Sweden to achieve herd immunity without imposing economically and socially crippling measures.People sit at tables outside a cafe at Kungstradgarden in Stockholm, Sweden.

People sit at tables outside a cafe at Kungstradgarden in Stockholm, Sweden.CREDIT:BLOOMBER

However, in an interview with Swedish Radio, Anders Tegnell, the country's chief epidemiologist, admitted that immunity rates were low and that it was "difficult to explain why this is so". Tegnell and Prime Minister Stefan Lofven have long defended the softer approach, stating the disease was not something that could be defeated with a short-term fix but that people must learn to live with the virus.

Nothing to do with the fact that "herd immunity" has been pretty much been universally dismissed as a stupid fucking idea??

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2 hours ago, mad said:

Nothing to do with the fact that "herd immunity" has been pretty much been universally dismissed as a stupid fucking idea??

Jack will certainly chime in, but I don't think it's being dismissed as a valid concept. The problem is that no country in their right mind wanted to deal with the numbers of hospital, ICU  and deaths that will occur on the way to achieving  herd immunity. Also, it was not certain as to whether herd immunity will work.

It's sounding like Sweden has underestimated how long it will take to have enough people infected to achieve herd immunity. 

Swedes were perhaps sold on the concept and costs of achieving herd immunity by the promise of unaffected summer holidays with countries around the world welcoming the almighty immune Swedish tourists.

Instead they have an embarrassing death toll, a long way off herd immunity and the pariah of the EU. 

 

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47 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

Jack will certainly chime in, but I don't think it's being dismissed as a valid concept. The problem is that no country in their right mind wanted to deal with the numbers of hospital, ICU  and deaths that will occur on the way to achieving  herd immunity. Also, it was not certain as to whether herd immunity will work.

It's sounding like Sweden has underestimated how long it will take to have enough people infected to achieve herd immunity. 

Swedes were perhaps sold on the concept and costs of achieving herd immunity by the promise of unaffected summer holidays with countries around the world welcoming the almighty immune Swedish tourists.

Instead they have an embarrassing death toll, a long way off herd immunity and the pariah of the EU. 

 

hard to get to herd immunity when recovered people can be reinfected 2 months after they got out of the hospital.

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1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

hard to get to herd immunity when recovered people can be reinfected 2 months after they got out of the hospital.

Do we know that for sure?

Last time I checked, figuring out how long you would be imune (if any) after being infected was still a big question mark... Are there some more studies results on the topic? It is a crucial piece of information. It it is only 2 months, then we are not only fucked, but we are fucked for a long time, basically until there is an effective medical treatment, or a vaccine...

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33 minutes ago, Laurent said:

Do we know that for sure?

Last time I checked, figuring out how long you would be imune (if any) after being infected was still a big question mark... Are there some more studies results on the topic? It is a crucial piece of information. It it is only 2 months, then we are not only fucked, but we are fucked for a long time, basically until there is an effective medical treatment, or a vaccine...

https://people.com/health/dallas-woman-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-again/

It's a question mark, but the data is rolling in now.  Two employees of an auto store here in MI owned by a friend are in hospital this week having both tested positive back in March.  Both have it far worse this time.  

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2 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

https://people.com/health/dallas-woman-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-again/

It's a question mark, but the data is rolling in now.  Two employees of an auto store here in MI owned by a friend are in hospital this week having both tested positive back in March.  Both have it far worse this time.  

From the article you quoted, it seems that they find people who get sick again, but for now, it is believed that it is from remanent virus, left in their body from the first infection, and that this strain of virus are not able to replicate, and therefore those second time patients would not be contagious.

So it is potentially bad: you can get sick twice.

But not as hellish bad as it may first seem: you are contagious twice...

 

We shall see.

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7 hours ago, mad said:

Nothing to do with the fact that "herd immunity" has been pretty much been universally dismissed as a stupid fucking idea??

5 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

Jack will certainly chime in, but I don't think it's being dismissed as a valid concept. 

 

4 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

hard to get to herd immunity when recovered people can be reinfected 2 months after they got out of the hospital.

 

36 minutes ago, Laurent said:

So it is potentially bad: you can get sick twice.

But not as hellish bad as it may first seem: you are contagious twice...

 

Herd Immunity is dead in the water.

1. Transmission around 6 times lower with mitigation and suppression (that has saved the world's arse) so universally less than 10% average not 60% plus. Even NYC and London couldn't get past 20%, Stolkholme double figures. (good display of Swedish natural distancing and household demographics) 

IMG_20200611_002558.jpg.024843a54cb2afd844fccadc4ce8f820.jpg

2. Mortality rate or mean IFR around 0.64% is around 6 times higher than Sweden and many expected so not just a bad flu.

IMG_20200616_155420.jpg.2752cfe48cd602e66dba4d759b8b2093.jpg

3. No evidence yet on how widespread natural immunity is, if any, intensity level required, how long it lasts etc. WHO have canned "immunity passporting" as a strategy.  Double whammy is not just double infection (even if mortality risk of 2nd hit was lower), that person doesnt get crossed off the list as a transmitter, so a double trasmitter. This exponential factor for lowering case rate just evaporated.

The US and UK (who were with Sweden until 26 March) are for their early and ill- equiped re-openings (having regard to their existing high case rate and still top 10 daily mortality per capita) are ignoring this. 

US and UK are repeating their "closing/going in" with "opening/coming out." It takes a special gift to do the same fuckup twice.

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Pretty much until the start of Covid 19, herd immunity existed as a theoretical discussion on what % of the population you had to be IMMUNISED before the statistically chances of someone getting exposed to a disease become negligible and numbers quoted were typically well above 80%.  It was never about how many people have to get sick before people stop getting sick.

The idea of exposing 80+ % of the population to a disease so the remaining 20-% doesn’t have to worry makes no sense at all.  Given Sweden is running at 10% death rate amongst their infected (yes in know this is partially because they’re only tested sick people).  Even getting to 80% means they would loose close to 8% of their population.  

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1 hour ago, SCARECROW said:

Given Sweden is running at 10% death rate amongst their infected (yes in know this is partially because they’re only tested sick people). 

IFR not 10%. 0.5% - 1.5% range expected and lower end more likely.

Sweden 0.64% coincidently sitting on the weighted mean and around 6 x influenza. Usual caveats apply.

2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

2. Mortality rate or mean IFR around 0.64% is around 6 times higher than Sweden and many expected so not just a bad flu.

IMG_20200616_155420.jpg.2752cfe48cd602e66dba4d759b8b2093.jpg

 

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14 hours ago, impetuous_donkey said:

The issue with the 91% is that there is a large number of people that were infected yet may never have tested. These numbers are only reflective of those who tested/ were tested.

well yes and the same applies to the deaths

you are deflecting

 

single question....

where did your 99.74% come from......?

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17 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

IFR not 10%. 0.5% - 1.5% range.

Sweden 0.64% coincidently sitting on the weighted mean and around 6 x influenza. Usual caveats apply.

 

Sweden’s released data (worldometer) is 56000 cases, 5000 deaths. Just under 10%.

 

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46 minutes ago, SCARECROW said:

Sweden’s released data (worldometer) is 56000 cases, 5000 deaths. Just under 10%.

That is CFR not IFR. No one uses CFR when cases data is pretty worthless many places.

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3 hours ago, furr_ball said:

well yes and the same applies to the deaths

you are deflecting

 

single question....

where did your 99.74% come from......?

That wasn't my number I'm just pointing out why your number and source are incorrect.

 

The number of deaths will be much easier to figure out looking at historical numbers to provide a relative baseline.

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4 hours ago, impetuous_donkey said:

The number of deaths will be much easier to figure out looking at historical numbers to provide a relative baseline.

Yes historical or "excess mortality" over a 5 to 10 year mean of all deaths are already showing that once national April figures started to appear a big difference to reported. These picked up Death Certificates outside hospitals and picked up deaths with no Convid positive test and so not recorded. Even UK 3 line and US 4 line COD Certificates missed them and contrary to guidelines in their use. Smell of political rat. 

World wide the shortfall is well in excess of 100k. For instance UK at one stage was nearly 60% under counting now it's only around 20%. Sweden here was around 10% undercounting until recently but now more accurate. World leading over counter is Belgium. If anything died it was covid full stop.

US had a big undercount in some states and so the release of US's 2 May "excess mortality" stats publish date was highly anticipated. They remain highly anticipated, they have not been released. <_<

It is now being thought US "excess mortality" stats difference to official number may be eye watering and so they have been suppressed.:ph34r:

Here is a global snapshot of "excess mortality" as of 10 June but missing interpolation for the late recorders.

EazmEUXXQAI4V5E.jpeg

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15 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

Jack will certainly chime in, but I don't think it's being dismissed as a valid concept. The problem is that no country in their right mind wanted to deal with the numbers of hospital, ICU  and deaths that will occur on the way to achieving  herd immunity. Also, it was not certain as to whether herd immunity will work.

It's sounding like Sweden has underestimated how long it will take to have enough people infected to achieve herd immunity. 

Swedes were perhaps sold on the concept and costs of achieving herd immunity by the promise of unaffected summer holidays with countries around the world welcoming the almighty immune Swedish tourists.

Instead they have an embarrassing death toll, a long way off herd immunity and the pariah of the EU. 

Afaik Sweden's government didn't have teeth to deal with covid. They did try to push legislation that would have helped, but it won't happen fast. Only war or threat of it allows martial law there. It is hard to convince people to curfew and close businesses when there is no legal base to do so. 

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I don't think anyone is suggesting that it isn't safer to isolate and that the infection rate and death count will be lower if you do. However, that solution is unsustainable for long. Most of us cannot isolate and provide for ourselves both. The isolation concept also relies on some portion of us being prepared to not isolate so we will have the necessities of life. I confess I do get a little aggravated at those of us who blithely stay home preaching about these issues while assuming someone will deliver what they need to their door despite the risks. 

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IFR Rates:

CDC:  .28-.41% (age dependent)

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
 

UBonn:  .37%  (but, expected to be overestimated for reasons they describe)

https://www.uni-bonn.de/news/111-2020

 

Stanford: .26%

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2

 

In March, everyone said it could be 3-7% IFR. So, you could argue a lockdown was justified (I disagreed, personally, but I understand the perspective/fear aspect).
As the data comes in though, it's much closer to a bad flu.

So, we should continue to protect the vulnerable populations, that's the compassionate thing to do.
But, attempting to lock people indoors for the rest of the year, to appease those who demand complete 'safety'
Well, that's *clearly* the wrong decision anymore.
 

I realize it's politically correct to be scared and cautious, I get it. I get that it's fun to sit at a computer and rant that other people should do exactly what you think.  Call out culture says anyone who doesn't agree with your side, is the enemy, and a disgusting human being.  
I get it, very primal/tribal thinking there, but we all fall into that trap, me as well.

 

I hope the data speaks for itself, and people here might say 'hmmm, in the pursuit of truth, yes, I see the point.  It was good we all worked together to lock down when we thought it was the end of the world.  And, now, yes, I see the data too, and we should be protective of the old/sick, but, yeah, science shows now what we didn't know then.'

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12 minutes ago, BlatantEcho said:

 

In March, everyone said it could be 3-7% IFR.

most epidemiologists agreed it would probably somewhere between 5 and 15 times more deadly than seasonal flu, even towards the end of march.  reality, not straw men.  Who is shocked that it looks like it falls right in that range?

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32 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

most epidemiologists agreed it would probably somewhere between 5 and 15 times more deadly than seasonal flu, even towards the end of march.  reality, not straw men.  Who is shocked that it looks like it falls right in that range?

The CDC shows it at .28% IFR  (link above)


The most aggressive study I have seen shows it at .5% potentially.
 

Anyone who originally estimated 3-7% was wrong by between 12x to 25x
Just think about that sentence for one moment.

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5 hours ago, danstanford said:

I don't think anyone is suggesting that it isn't safer to isolate and that the infection rate and death count will be lower if you do. However, that solution is unsustainable for long. Most of us cannot isolate and provide for ourselves both. The isolation concept also relies on some portion of us being prepared to not isolate so we will have the necessities of life. I confess I do get a little aggravated at those of us who blithely stay home preaching about these issues while assuming someone will deliver what they need to their door despite the risks. 

I don't think that anyone is suggesting that the economy should stay shut down until a vaccine is found and until everybody is vaccinated. Indeed that solution is unsustainable. I am one of the lucky ones who can work from home and who have kept his job (and in the oil industry today, this is no small feast, believe me!). The opening concept relies on everybody doing the right thing. Maintain social distancing, especially in doors, maintain the use of masks, absolutely critical indoors, when other people at proximity. I confess I do get a LOT aggravated at those of us who preach a full re-opening now, without making any effort to make the re-opening viable and sustainable in the name of their sacro-saint individual freedom ("I am not wearing any stinking mask!" type of attitude) while assuming someone will take care of them in the hospital if they do get sick.

To me, not doing the minimum steps to slow down the progression of the virus should be considered a DUI. Hear me out.

If you drink and drive and kill yourself, it is your life, your level of risk taking, your decision. The problem is: you are not alone on the road. Your freedom of drink and drive stops when you risk to kill a mom and her 2 kids on the rear seat because you came out of that curve, way to fast, and had a head-on collision with her eventhough she was doing everything right.

If the virus could potentially kill you, and only you, if you catch it, then yes, it is your freedrom to take, or not, all measures to protect yourself, even if they are constraining. But this is not the case.

Actually, not taking minimum safety measured againd the virus is worse than a DUI. If you drink and drive and have a car accident where you end up with 2 broken legs, a concussion and a perforated lung  and you make it to the hospital, your foolish attitude will not impact the lifes of the medical personel taking care of you in the coming weeks and months. But a foolish attitude with the virus will jeopardize the lives of the very people who are trying to save yours.

I don't claim this is your attitude. I know that. But if I have to chose a group to be upset at, I know which one I will choose; the people screaming for re-opening of the economy and who by their very egoistic attitude, make that re-opening not viable instead of the people who err too much on the side of caution.

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The DUI analogy is applicable except that too often the young healthy folks  will likely suffer mild symptoms will be infecting others who infect others who infect others and some of those others will die and or suffer horribly.

It's like a DUI chain reaction accident where the driver walks away leaving carnage strewn in his path.  Because wearing masks is for pussies and liberals.

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11 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

In March, everyone said it could be 3-7% IFR. So, you could argue a lockdown was justified (I disagreed, personally, but I understand the perspective/fear aspect).
As the data comes in though, it's much closer to a bad flu.

Anyone who originally estimated 3-7% was wrong by between 12x to 25x

"In March, everyone said it could be 3-7% IFR."

Cite one reputable entity that said that.... noting your claiming there IFR's 30 - 70 times greater than the flu not 12 - 25.

You have been told multiple times your cited IFR's 0.2% - 0.4% is 2 to 4 times greater than the flu. US 20I9 was 0.13% to be precise then corrected down for not all cases counted.

The range expected is 5 - 15 times (0.5 - 1.5%) depending on age with current weighted mean of multiple studies being around 6/7 times or 0.64%. Yet you keep repeating the same basic numerical mistakes. 

It is clear you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about and intent only on spreading disinformation of a dangerous kind.

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9 hours ago, d'ranger said:

The DUI analogy is applicable

DUI is probably easier to detect because when your pissed it is pretty obvious.... like your shoes are on back the front, your underpants are outside your trousers....and the sliding into a drunk coma while standing is not exactly hard to miss.

Convid on the other hand you can have extraordinarily low BloodO2 levels and right off the chart where you should be fucking dead as a meat axe. But instead walking around and quite lucid often oblivious to even being short of breath.

The other difference is I haven't heard of anyone with Convid claiming they got laid sometime during the experience.

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CFR/IFR got used interchangeably a lot at first, and I would concede, the highest estimates of IFR (from actual medical studies), were around 3%.
Most were thinking 1-1.5%.

Now we see the data at .15% to .34%  
The flu at .13%

So, Covid is 0-2x a deadly as the common flu.
I think we can all agree that as of mid June, that's what the data says in aggregate.
Likely less deadly for most of the population
Looks like more deadly for sick/old (where, most of the deaths have been, clearly)


Remember:  In March, the Imperial College (UK) warned up to 2.2 Million people in the US could die.
That was really the study that got the panic going. That was what started the 'SJW Call for Safety'

Even with a partial lockdown (a number of states did nothing, and yesterday ~575,000 people flew on airplanes), many people just ignored it - deaths are ~120,000 (USA).  That's double the seasonal flu. (61,000 a year in US)

Context matters here.
We have the data now... mea culpa is not a bad word when our actions impact Billions of people.

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Below is probably my favorite graph that gives context.
Where does Covid-19 fit (realizing we only have ~8 months of data)
 

IMG_6902.thumb.PNG.fc4ceeb1e8efb8566ad69eb0be6a3526.PNG

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34 minutes ago, BlatantEcho said:

Covid is 0-2x a deadly as the common flu

Your inabbility to do elementary school level maths kind of disqualifies you from adult conversation.

Covid-19 is definitely not 0 times as deadly as the flu. You are also ignoring it being way more contagious.

Even assuming your 0.3% death rate, which is half the scientific consens at the moment, as has been pointed out to you several times, it would still kill roughly a million US citizens if left unchecked.

That is 2.5 second world wars for the US.

Maybe you should start advocating for a social security net, that would enable you to not having to choose between mass poverty and mass  graves, instead of putting the economy above hundred of thousands of lives.

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15 minutes ago, mathystuff said:

Your inabbility to do elementary school level maths kind of disqualifies you from adult conversation.

Covid-19 is definitely not 0 times as deadly as the flu. You are also ignoring it being way more contagious.

Even assuming your 0.3% death rate, which is half the scientific consens at the moment, as has been pointed out to you several times, it would still kill roughly a million US citizens if left unchecked.

That is 2.5 second world wars for the US.

Maybe you should start advocating for a social security net, that would enable you to not having to choose between mass poverty and mass  graves, instead of putting the economy above hundred of thousands of lives.

If you think how contagious something is, determines how fatal it is...  we *really* can't have an adult conversation.
Seriously. I've been super respectful and I've linked to the studies. 
You can disagree, but, show data.... don't just say 'huh, this is World War 2.5'
 

I linked to THREE major studies that show the IFR from .24%-.41%. 
Flu is .13%
I *didn't* link to the studies that show Covid-19 as .15%, but it's my *personal* suspicion it will be about this.

Basic Math:
.13% * 2 = .26%    .13% *3 = .39%
So, at now, Coronavirus is 2-3x as deadly as the common flu.  And, you're chance of survival is only 99.61% instead of 99.87%
 

This is the context everyone misses:  In 2020, more people will die of Malaria than Coronavirus.


Our world isn't crusading to save all those 600,000 (mostly poor, very disproportionally BLACK lives) that die each year, year after year after year.

But, this one, this hits home. The news told me it's scary.  450,000 people died, it's WWIII!
Seriously, and adult conversation starts with facts and context.

60,000,000 people a year die, naturally. 
I can't emphasize that enough.  

Coronavirus will kill at best, 1.3% of the people who die anyway, every single year.
You need to wrap your head around large numbers, before having a debate on this.

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4 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

linked to THREE major studies that show the IFR from .24%-.41%. 
Flu is .13%
I *didn't* link to the studies that show Covid-19 as .15%, but it's my *personal* suspicion it will be about this.

You selected 3 studies at the low end of the range and ignored another 30 or so, many far more detailed, less qualified and more highly regarded than your selection. 

Go fuck yourself and the horse you rode in on.

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17 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

"In March, everyone said it could be 3-7% IFR."

Cite one reputable entity that said that.... noting your claiming there IFR's 30 - 70 times greater than the flu not 12 - 25.

 

5 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

CFR/IFR got used interchangeably a lot at first, and I would concede, the highest estimates of IFR (from actual medical studies), were around 3%.
Most were thinking 1-1.5%.

So when you pressed to cite something you can't and go on to recite more unsupported shit.

Scientists and epidemiologists didn't mistakenly interchange CFR and IFR, fuckwits like you did and still do.

Dangerous cunts like you are are more dangerous than the virus. 

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7 hours ago, Keith said:

 

This is actually one of the best blackest skits of all time.

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I don't know how having Monty Python in charge of the Covid response would be any worse than what we have now.  At least we would have something to laugh about.

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23 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Dangerous cunts like you are are more dangerous than the virus. 

Love you too, handsome :wub::wub::wub:
 

It's so weird that someone who claims to rely on facts, just calls people names who post... data and facts.
It's not like that in the real world, why drag things down here because you don't agree with the data?

 

I love this reply:   'I don't believe the CDC, Stanford Medical School, USC Medical Center or really any peer reviewed preprint in Europe.'

 

Can I ask a question?  Are you this upset about Malaria deaths every year too?
Or no, just this?

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On 6/20/2020 at 12:21 PM, jack_sparrow said:

You selected 3 studies at the low end of the range and ignored another 30 or so, many far more detailed, less qualified and more highly regarded than your selection. 

Go fuck yourself and the horse you rode in on.

*shrug* 


Your nastily screemed assertions directly contradict the CDC

(source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us-previous.html)

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3 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Can I ask a question?  Are you this upset about Malaria deaths every year too?
Or no, just this?

How many Swedes caught malaria in Sweden and died last year?

How many doctors, nurses and other hospital workers caught malaria off their patients and died of it in Sweden?

 

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5 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

I love this reply:  'I don't believe the CDC, Stanford Medical School, USC Medical Center or really any peer reviewed preprint in Europe.'

Can I ask a question?  Are you this upset about Malaria deaths every year too?

Or no, just this ?

No lying cunts about Covid upset me more.

So Blatant I said:  'I don't believe the CDC, Stanford Medical School, USC Medical Center or really any peer  reviewed preprint in Europe.'

I said that really??? You are now a poor, ignorant, pathetic, dangerous, lying repetitively cunt.

You must have a really long business card.

On 6/21/2020 at 5:21 AM, jack_sparrow said:

You selected 3 studies at the low end of the range and ignored another 30 or so, many far more detailed, less qualified and more highly regarded than your selection. 

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5 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

*shrug* 

So Blatant everytime you open your mouth, put pen to paper or finger to keyboard and repetitively lie your guts out, you automatically do a "shrug" thing.

What sort of precautions do you take to stop your head falling off and eyes rolling out?

giphy_(22).gif

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7 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Can I ask a question?  Are you this upset about Malaria deaths every year too?
Or no, just this?

4 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

How many Swedes caught malaria in Sweden and died last year?

How many doctors, nurses and other hospital workers caught malaria off their patients and died of it in Sweden?

 

"Are you this upset about Malaria deaths every year too. Or no just this"

The Question should NOT be binary for any normal person. Every death is upsetting.

So Blatant that makes you abnormal. It also indicates you are dumb as fuck going places where you don't know the proper answer. Except of course the bullshit one floating around in the large empty place between your years where the journey for a thought to cross, is a long, dry and torturous one.

So what is the cases and death comparison of Malaria and Coronavirus. How many of the world's 195 countries don't have/have Coronavirus and or Malaria?  The answer will surely determine the risks and societal impacts of both including economically.

According to the latest WHO World Malaria Report, December 2019, there were 228 million cases of malaria in 2018 and malaria deaths stood at 405,000 in 2018. That is a CFR around <0.02% where normal caveats apply.

This compares to Coronavirus Stats of 9,044,563 Cases and 470,665 deaths or a CFR around 5% where normal caveats apply. "Excess mortality" the number of deaths are estimated at least one fifth higher.  

So after 6 months Coronavirus has generated approx at least one fifth more deaths than malaria in a year which could amortize out at years end to be one-third to half higher and as of today a Case Fatality Rate 250 times greater than Malaria.

As to global distribution of the two diseases.

According to WHO World Malaria Report, December 2019 the African region was home to 93% of malaria cases and 94% of malaria deaths.

According to WHO countries that have achieved at least 3 consecutive years of zero indigenous cases and eligible for a WHO certification of malaria-free status number number approx 40 and those never existed over 60, leaving around 90 having it at some point in the last 3 years. 

Covid free apparently only 12* counties out of 195 not including Antarctica don't have it   

1. North Korea.

2. Turkmenistan

3. Solomon Islands 

4. Vanuatu 

5. Samoa

6. Kiribati 

7. Federated States of Micronesia

8. Tonga

9. Marshall Islands 

10. Palau 

11. Tuvalu 

12. Nauru 

* self-declared so some scepticism among observers and professionals incl WHO.

Observations.

- With exception of Nth Korea and Turkmenistan all are in Oceania, some of the least visited places on the planet and easy to quarantine. In fact have experience in doing so to protect a resident population more at risk from common diseases.

- Nth Korea is a difficult one to call as a more secretive state doesn't exist BUT their border control very strict and they border two countries with minute cases per head of population, China and and Sth Korea.

- Turkmenistan Central Asia bordered by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Iran, and Afghanistan - all countries with reports of coronavirus infections. Closed borders early and hard but sounds very dodgy for country of 6 million.

Conclusion

So well over half the world by country count and MORE than 90% by population is MALARIA FREE, and 93/94% of all malaria cases and deaths are in a portion of ONE continent. Whereas Coronavirus is truly GLOBAL impacting every corner of the earth, kills around one-third to half MORE people and is 250 times MORE deadly than malaria.

That enormous differential obviously underwrites the global response and it's intensity to Coronavirus compared to malaria.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

According to the latest WHO World Malaria Report, December 2019, there were 228 million cases of malaria in 2018 and malaria deaths stood at 405,000 in 2018. That is a CFR around <0.02% where normal caveats apply.

This compares to todays Coronavirus Stats of 9,044,563 Cases and 470,665 deaths or a CFR around 5% where normal caveats apply. "Excess mortality" the number of deaths are estimated at least one fifth higher.  

So after 6 months Coronavirus has generated approx at least one fifth more deaths than malaria in a year which could amortize out at years end to be one-third to half higher and as of today a Case Fatality Rate 250 times greater than Malaria.

PS I  forgot to add Influenza where according to WHO say 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths annually and obviously more global than malaria and coverage closer to Coronavirus.

As a comparison according to CDC  US Influenza deaths are around 35,000 annually, but that has been known to nearly double in a very bad year.

Even with Coronavirus suppression measures undertaken, US Coronavirus deaths this year are antipipated to be 3 - 6 times that of influenza depending on the comparative year.

America is getting a taste of what it like to be an African country dealing with malaria, but with something far more deadly on a case by case basis.

In so far as other comparisons to recent individual causes of death over time are concerned, it looks like wars are about the only thing left.

Global Deaths per Week

20200509_WOC412 (2).png

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18 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Can I ask a question?  Are you this upset about Malaria deaths every year too?
Or no, just this?

 

15 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

How many Swedes caught malaria in Sweden and died last year?

How many doctors, nurses and other hospital workers caught malaria off their patients and died of it in Sweden?

 

giphy.gif

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Interesting that Sweden doesn’t seem to have reported any data for days (based on worldometer).  Have they succeeded in beating the Virus or is no-one left to report?

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There were 273 deaths in the US yesterday with covid present.
US 7 day average fatality rate is down 73% from April.
 

~7600 people die each day in the US, normally.
So yesterday, the people who died with CV present, represented 3.5% of all deaths for the day.
(ie, 96.5% of people who died yesterday, died unrelated to coronavirus)


Forrest and trees gang.


Sources: 
https://techstartups.com/2020/06/21/contrary-media-reports-u-s-coronavirus-daily-deaths-drop-267-lowest-since-march-23/
https://reason.com/2020/06/22/daily-covid-19-deaths-have-fallen-dramatically-since-april/

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17 minutes ago, BlatantEcho said:

There were 273 deaths in the US yesterday with covid present.
US 7 day average fatality rate is down 73% from April.
 

~7600 people die each day in the US, normally.
So yesterday, the people who died with CV present, represented 3.5% of all deaths for the day.
(ie, 96.5% of people who died yesterday, died unrelated to coronavirus)


Forrest and trees gang.


Sources: 
https://techstartups.com/2020/06/21/contrary-media-reports-u-s-coronavirus-daily-deaths-drop-267-lowest-since-march-23/
https://reason.com/2020/06/22/daily-covid-19-deaths-have-fallen-dramatically-since-april/

May I just take this opportunity to say "thank you Mr Echo for providing so much entertainment". You have got  the monkeys dancing as fast as you can grind. Well done Bruce.

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Thanks boss. You are welcome! 

It is endlessly fascinating to watch the tizzy people chose to work themselves into online isn't it?

 

 

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Perspective from OZ...

As of of 22 June, the lucky country is a way down the unlocking pathway, plus/minus some stupidity from a couple of state premiers.

The big numbers in round figures are:

Percentage of population exposed: Estimate 0.4 percent, so about 100,000

Total recognised cases: 7,500

Deaths: 100

Currently in icu: 2

Deaths of healthy persons under 60: zero

For some perspective, the excess mortality from the two month bushfire episode over xmas was around 600!

Certain politicians seem to have a great deal of difficulty with the idea that elimination is impossible, and that we are in for the long haul of suppression and management.

The international borders will reopen very slowly, but at least the PM and most of the Federal body politic are disposed toward that.

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3 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Forrest and trees gang.

 

3 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

May I just take this opportunity to say "thank you Mr Echo for providing so much entertainment". You have got  the monkeys dancing as fast as you can grind. Well done Bruce.

 

3 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Thanks boss. You are welcome! 

It is endlessly fascinating to watch the tizzy people chose to work themselves into online isn't it?

This will be fun working out which one is Mummy and which one Daddy.

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Why is it that people refuse to accept this as not good?  Kind of a never ending cherry picking of facts and stats to bolster the idea that it's all just a ruse?  How can it be argued current statistics in anyway reflect life as normal with most of the globe in some sort of lockdown over the last two months.  I would have thought New York, Italy and Sweden compared to NZ Aus and South Korea might have sprinkled a small amount of sanity around.

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15 minutes ago, SASSAFRASS said:

Why is it that people refuse to accept this as not good?  Kind of a never ending cherry picking of facts and stats to bolster the idea that it's all just a ruse?  How can it be argued current statistics in anyway reflect life as normal with most of the globe in some sort of lockdown over the last two months.  I would have thought New York, Italy and Sweden compared to NZ Aus and South Korea might have sprinkled a small amount of sanity around.

Some people see what they want to see, evidence or otherwise.

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1 hour ago, Frogman56 said:

Certain politicians seem to have a great deal of difficulty with the idea that elimination is impossible...

Who's advocating elimination?

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Two exhibits:

Headlines from NZ.. Virus Eliminated...Oops!

And inferentially...

Queensland Premier and Chief Health officer

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1 hour ago, Frogman56 said:

Two exhibits:

Headlines from NZ.. Virus Eliminated...Oops!

And inferentially...

Queensland Premier and Chief Health officer

It is long and torturous road between what is actually thought, actually said, actually done and actually reported. I wouldn't be putting too much stock in anyone believing in elimination despite what is written.

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1 hour ago, Frogman56 said:

Two exhibits:

Headlines from NZ.. Virus Eliminated...Oops!

And inferentially...

Queensland Premier and Chief Health officer

NZ has eliminated the virus and the population is living normal lives.  We have kiwis and others arriving and some of them have the virus, all entrants go into managed isolation or quarantine for at least 14 days and we currently have 4,000 people in that stage.  The entrants can leave after they are tested at three days and again at 14 days, leaving isolation is effectively crossing the border to join NZ society.

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10 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

It is long and torturous road between what is actually thought, actually said, actually done and actually reported. I wouldn't be putting too much stock in anyone believing in elimination despite what is written.

I guess you need to live in NZ to understand reality.

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Unfortunately Terry, not correct.

There may be no active cases, but the virus lives on.

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7 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

NZ has eliminated the virus and the population is living normal lives.  We have kiwis and others arriving and some of them have the virus, all entrants go into managed isolation or quarantine for at least 14 days and we currently have 4,000 people in that stage.  The entrants can leave after they are tested at three days and again at 14 days, leaving isolation is effectively crossing the border to join NZ society.

So normal, except for quarantine and isolation?

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1 minute ago, Ease the sheet. said:

So normal, except for quarantine and isolation?

Yes, all new entrants are held in managed isolation.

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