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RobG

Covid—19 Fallout: will it guarantee Trump's re–election?

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It seems that with the US Covid–19 related infections and deaths finally starting to ease, a moderately effective treatment being announced and markets on the way back up, Trump is giving a very rosy picture of America recovering from the pandemic. For him, the "war" is over and America has emerged stronger, better and richer than ever thanks to his perfect handling of the crisis.

His presumptive opponent has been unable to campaign (which might be good thing), has not dealt with a fairly serious sexual assault allegation and is an even older white male than the incumbent. His party, the "do nothing Dems", sat on their hands and tried to block financial assistance packages that the Republicans wanted to get into the hands of ordinary Americans.

Thank God for Trump's prescience in knowing that "like a miracle, it will go away" and America will be stronger than ever.

The election is still 6 months away, plenty of time for things to change, but are events conspiring to guarantee Trump's re–election?

My vote is yes, he is a shoe–in.

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People are very stupid, I wouldn’t put it past them.

Let’s review, given their choice of options, they have:

- selected Donald Trump as president

- selected Joe Biden as dem nominee

- placed the entire world under house arrest (except Sweden)

- watched “The Bachelor “

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Gosh. I was hoping the virus would kill off the stupid ones.

 

 

 

I would never really hope that. Any sane person would know by now that trump is an idiot. But there is an idiot wind blowing in the usa, so buckle down for another 4+ years.

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42 minutes ago, Varan said:

Gosh. I was hoping the virus would kill off the stupid ones.

 

 

 

I would never really hope that. Any sane person would know by now that trump is an idiot. But there is an idiot wind blowing in the usa, so buckle down for another 4+ years.

I’ve lived in the US for nearly 20 years now as my primary residence. Between stints around the world for business. 
 

my long term partner is an American citizen. I’m now making plans abroad in case this stupidity goes on. 

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It should be the democrat's election to loose but there is no accounting for stupidity.  If they let Trump spin his way back into the White house then the whole party will need to re-evaluate.

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Trump's get out jail free card is the number of people who don't look beyond their own fence line let alone offshore.

If they did then questions would start flowing. How come Seoul with a greater metro population similiar to NYC and city pop of 10m have <5 deaths?? 

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

Trump's get out jail free card is the number of people who don't look beyond their own fence line let alone offshore.

If they did then questions would start flowing. How come Seoul with a greater metro population similiar to NYC and city pop of 10m have <5 deaths?? 

New Taipei/Taipei has about 1/2 of Taiwanese pop. somehow despite millions of travelers and thousands from the PRC returning for lunar new year and exchange?

no mass outbreak. 
 

but people keep pretending as if US intelligence didn’t raise the alarm but the leaders weren’t listening. 

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There are more than enough fuckwits in America to vote him back in.

More to the point ... "let's just see how crazy this shit can get."

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Trump's get out jail free card is the number of people who don't look beyond their own fence line let alone offshore.

By the time of the election, the pandemic will be ancient history, the economy will be coming back to life and Trump will claim all the credit.

Has Trump's coronavirus response sunk him? Don't bet on it
Some pundits argue that his Lysol comments are the last straw for supporters. But he could still successfully change the conversation

His tactic now is to just not talk about the response, but to talk only of lifting restrictions, blaming China and pushing headlong into a return to business as usual. Questions about the response will be just nasty, you should be praising me, look how wonderful everything is and how few lives were lost…

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1 hour ago, RobG said:

....His tactic now is to just not talk about the response, but to talk only of lifting restrictions, blaming China and pushing headlong into a return to business as usual. Questions about the response will be just nasty, you should be praising me, look how wonderful everything is and how few lives were lost…

That's the plan.

I did a comparative piece of word-salad on lockdown thread between UK and US a few days ago

I have sliced out the UK bit. Apart from Trump ignoring public opinion, the scary one which I have yet to see main stream media grab hold of.

"The US on the other hand released in April under a familiar and catchy slogan "Opening Up America Again" Those guidelines exclude any reference to fatality numbers."

So rely on cases only, but with a shambolic test/trace program and just forget about body bags.

On 4/27/2020 at 9:58 PM, jack_sparrow said:

 

 

Quote

.......

US PUBLIC OPINION

There maybe something more recent polling than this dated 16 April, however the most authoritive I could find. Pew Research Centre - U.S. Politics & Policy - Covid

Trump Administration reacted slowly with a very deserved 65/34 fail. This view is also shown along demographic and party lines noting the split response in the Conservative vote.

IMG_20200427_194042.jpg.b72795df46b941a162324d09766d3e11.jpg

As for approval of the Trump Administrations "overall" handling of Covid, it is seen by the majority as only doing a fair or poor job. The non-economic score is in the range of a 54 - 57% failure.

IMG_20200427_195420.jpg.a1c09b5135eb38b090abfd75bdf74977.jpg

As for lock-downs easing the US public are very cautious with 66% concerned versus 32% they are not being lifted quick enough by State Governments for public activity.

IMG_20200427_194219.jpg.cdd81bf2e09001b56fa285705244bf20.jpg

This was double checked with this polling data showing even higher figure of 84% strongly supportive of lock-downs continuing even if the economy gets worse versus 16% stopping the decline even if more people get infected/die. Those expectations don't change for the next month or to the second week of May.

April 2020- Yale University Study - Americal Public Responses Convid-19

IMG_20200427_193642.jpg.11adbf4228edb4e0de7c5c3d441be25f.jpg

IMG_20200427_193802.jpg.b9652f78faea54d4591b46bd9c6114db.jpg

- Govt Opinion on Lock-Downs Lifting: 

The US on the other hand released in April under a familiar and catchy slogan "Opening Up America Again" Those guidelines exclude any reference to fatality numbers. It has been reported the most publicly known doctors leading the federal COVID-19 response, Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, will be sidelined in the coming weeks. 

CONCLUSION

The US Government don't intend to follow the majority wishes (66 - 84%) of their constituents, despite already failing them to date with a shambolic response equal to the UK's.

It appears the Trump administration will now:

 - Prioritise an economy-first not a lives-first response and is prepared to abandon public health expertise. 

- Decrease its reliance on health statistics in briefings, though accurate public information has proven to be an effective tool in fighting the spread of the virus worldwide. 

- Highlight “success stories” of businesses reopening.

- Emphasise the performance of governors in States ending their shutdowns.

Ultimately voters will or should mark the virus response cards down the line of these two respective Government's and in the US case also their State administrations.

As Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas said; "there are more important things than living," not being around to vote is obviously one.

 

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10 hours ago, RobG said:

It seems that with the US Covid–19 related infections and deaths finally starting to ease, a moderately effective treatment being announced and markets on the way back up, Trump is giving a very rosy picture of America recovering from the pandemic. For him, the "war" is over and America has emerged stronger, better and richer than ever thanks to his perfect handling of the crisis.

His presumptive opponent has been unable to campaign (which might be good thing), has not dealt with a fairly serious sexual assault allegation and is an even older white male than the incumbent. His party, the "do nothing Dems", sat on their hands and tried to block financial assistance packages that the Republicans wanted to get into the hands of ordinary Americans.

Thank God for Trump's prescience in knowing that "like a miracle, it will go away" and America will be stronger than ever.

The election is still 6 months away, plenty of time for things to change, but are events conspiring to guarantee Trump's re–election?

My vote is yes, he is a shoe–in.

You need some better news sources.

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26 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

You need some better news sources.

"News sources"......WTF BJ... is there now more than one???

Note broadcast dates in bottom vid.

 

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55 minutes ago, nacrajon said:

'Make America Great Again', he has the inverse effect.

"he has the inverse effect"... are you sure???....a lot of Americans are getting special Covid vacine treatments so they can jump on a cruise ship this summer.

EWg-YT0XsAAFHoB.jpeg

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10 hours ago, Miffy said:

I’ve lived in the US for nearly 20 years now as my primary residence. Between stints around the world for business. 
 

my long term partner is an American citizen. I’m now making plans abroad in case this stupidity goes on. 

A lot of people said that in ‘16 and none of them moved to Canada. Not one.

The President is a nut and Joe is brain dead. Take your choice. Either way, have the balls to stay after the vote, it’s the American way.

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12 minutes ago, Sail4beer said:

A lot of people said that in ‘16 and none of them moved to Canada. Not one.

The President is a nut and Joe is brain dead. Take your choice. Either way, have the balls to stay after the vote, it’s the American way.

The difference between the moving to Canada drama lamas and those of us who are not natural born citizens?

we have the option and we know when we’re not welcomed 

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75 years ago today, Hitler killed himself and Nazism was defeated. 

Anyone know of a good Hypnotist??

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5 hours ago, RobG said:

By the time of the election, the pandemic will be ancient history

Not if it makes a comeback, which it is predicted to do, particularly in light the number of politicians who are working to open everything up.

But Trump always has his blame everyone else MO.  The fact he pulled that on Trump-loving Brian Kemp should tell anyone trying to win the Trump vote you are always on thin ice with Trump.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

75 years ago today, Hitler killed himself and Nazism was defeated. 

Anyone know of a good Hypnotist??

And to think, he took the Third Reich with him, approximately 985 years early.
 

If he hadn’t been so high on drugs and used his Generals properly, he would have won the war in Europe  in short order and kept his best (Jewish) scientists to crack the atom first. 
 

They had the Enigma machine and if U-110 hadn’t been captured and an Enigma machine secured, there would have been no stopping the Wolfpacks that had the Atlantic in a stranglehold. The Captain ordered the sub scuttled as they abandoned ship, but the explosives failed( Jewish death camp labor is notoriously unreliable:D) and the sub taken. The  Germans were so dumb that they actually denied the possibility that their code had been broken and continued to use it...

I’m glad he was high as a kite. Dad and I watched a nice YouTube video last night titled “Blitzed, The story of German soldiers and drugs”. They had tank divisions and infantry on the move for 3 days straight on meth pills...

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1 hour ago, Miffy said:

 

we have the option and we know when we’re not welcomed 

America welcomes all legal immigrants, so don’t get too uncomfortable here, Miffy.
 

Use the right to vote if you have become a naturalized citizen or use grassroot methods of informing people about about what you think the course America should take in the next several years. It’s a wonderful system in theory and needs intelligent people to make the right choices, regardless of party lines.

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The kid is a wwII savant and that is absolutely true.  Dad was 8 on the german side and he remembers the meds distinctly as he used to play on the abandoned tanks back in the day.  weird shit...  

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

"News sources"......WTF BJ... is there now more than one???

Note broadcast dates in bottom vid.

 

My brother is convinced that Fox should sell televisions that only broadcast Fox. They could be expensive and of cheap quality, built in China and not need an off button.They would sell very well to their audience. 

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1 hour ago, Sail4beer said:

And to think, he took the Third Reich with him....

and also Eva....

What many German people wanted when they voted Hitler in, was not what they got.

Today is not much different in many places.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

and also Eva....

What many German people wanted when they voted Hitler in, was not what they got.

Today is not much different in many places.

Yet there was a name for people that supported Hitler's party because they liked his economic policies even though they had nothing in particular against the Jews.

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Never quite sure if these posts are just insane or merely trolling :unsure:

Trump’s (Putin’s) game is and always has been to end free elections in America and install a Hungarian- or Russian-style faux-democratic dictatorship.  Declaring a “state of emergency” is a nice little windfall that plays directly into the basket. The ONLY thing keeping the USA alive right now is the health of one little 87-year-old lady.* 

There is no guarantee that there will even be an election this fall. 

*And of course the fact that Trump is too stupid and insane a tool to stay on track.

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On 5/1/2020 at 5:41 AM, B.J. Porter said:

Yet there was a name for people that supported Hitler's party because they liked his economic policies even though they had nothing in particular against the Jews.

Correct BJ and in detail for any interested.

1924 to 1929  Hitler's Nazi party and it's forerunner the unpopular party gained little electoral success.

In 1928, the Nazis had only a dozen seats in the Reichstag.

By July 1932 they had 230 seats and were the largest party.

THE RISE

- First class propganda machine (Hitler great public speaker) with cult like persona of creating one German community that would make religion or social class less relevant to people. So Semetism didn't fit and anti Semetism just one plank to appeal to those that supported it and other more extreme policies, ignored by those that didn't (later turned a blind eye). 

- Wealthy businessmen: were frightened of the left. It would take their wealth away so started to giving money to Hitler and the Nazis to gain more seats.

The middle-class: Generally quite traditional concerned about the Weimar democracy. Hitler promised to drain the Weimar swamp and create a strong government. However once in power turned the Weimar into a totalitarian state.

Nationalists: Blamed the legacy of the Treaty of Versailles and reparations for causing a Depression worse than other countries. Nazis promised to make Germany strong again.

Rural areas: Appealed to middle and lower class shopkeepers and craftsmen, farmers and agricultural labourers.

Industrial Workers: Communists appeal to some but in Germany’s cities only and so party couldn’t keep up.

There are some modem day similarities B)

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34 minutes ago, toddster said:

Trump’s (Putin’s) game is and always has been to end free elections in America and install a Hungarian- or Russian-style faux-democratic dictatorship.  Declaring a “state of emergency” is a nice little windfall that plays directly into the basket. 

Mmmmm

17 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Hitler promised to drain the Weimar swamp and create a strong government. However once in power turned the Weimar into a totalitarian state.

Blamed the legacy of the Treaty of Versailles  and reparations for causing a Depression worse than other  countries. Nazis promised to make Germany strong again.

 

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3 hours ago, Svanen said:

signs-of-resistance-trump-ss07.jpg

We can trump that.

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

There are some modem day similarities 

Two signs

One at the “Re-open Illinois” event today.

The other is the tragic and renouned symbol of the "cynical lie" being the inscription above the main gate of Auschwitz concentration camp: “ARBEIT MACHT FREI” (rough translation work makes you free).

When the SS ordered them to make this sign, the prisoners placed their hidden message in the word “ARBEIT” (Work) they turned the letter “B” upside down as a sign of defiance and courage knowing they were never getting out of there alive so to tell the world.

Commonly replicated in far right extreme displays. The actual sign itself was stolen by such a group around 10 years ago but recovered.

Maybe this women in Illinois just has a thing for the German language and upside down B's 

IMG_20200502_180048.jpg

images - 2020-05-02T175807.405.jpeg

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Good story,  I'd like to believe it, help me out.

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It's a great story.  Just no evidence of the claim.

Looks like a manufacturing issue to me.

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Your story is fucked

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To this centrist, it is extraordinary that the nomination process in a nation with so much leadership talent could produce such an uninspiring choice.

Eight years after voters had to choose between Romney  and Obama, we have this.

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So, the so called greatest country in the world will give the American people the choice between either Trump or Biden as the next President. One a complete fuckwit, the other who is in a downward spiral with dementia. What a choice! Surely you can do better than that.

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Trump's new White House Press Secretary....they all seem to look alike??? Special hiring protocol...you notice they never show their knees..maybe they are bandy legged?? 

Anyway she promises not to lie....yeeks you don't ever say crazy shit like that......are you fucking nuts woman.

Lasted 2 questions and less than 2 minutes then pulling shit out her arse like a natural... phew ..her job is safe.

1222269576.jpg.0.jpg

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2 hours ago, Rainbow Spirit said:

So, the so called greatest country in the world will give the American people the choice between either Trump or Biden as the next President. One a complete fuckwit, the other who is in a downward spiral with dementia. What a choice! Surely you can do better than that.

It's not about giving the American people anything.  It's about ensuring the campaign donors get the best return on their investment - the money they "donate" to political campaigns. 

Biden, a long time bank puppet, will do as he always has.  Trump, a malignant narcissist, is easy to manipulate.  Both will continue to feed the insatiable appetite of the fat cats and "the only people who matter:" will be happy. 

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On 4/29/2020 at 9:48 PM, Miffy said:

I’ve lived in the US for nearly 20 years now as my primary residence. Between stints around the world for business. 
 

my long term partner is an American citizen. I’m now making plans abroad in case this stupidity goes on. 

Why wait?

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19 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Trump's new White House Press Secretary....they all seem to look alike??? Special hiring protocol...you notice they never show their knees..maybe they are bandy legged?? 

Anyway she promises not to lie....yeeks you don't ever say crazy shit like that......are you fucking nuts woman.

Lasted 2 questions and less than 2 minutes then pulling shit out her arse like a natural... phew ..her job is safe.

1222269576.jpg.0.jpg

All look alike? Trumps Press Sec’s?   Are you nuts?

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37 minutes ago, Rok Dog said:

All look alike? Trumps Press Sec’s?   Are you nuts?

Sorry typo.. "not all look alike".. I meant all women around him "stand alike" 

....asking someone whose nuts if they're nuts doesn't lead anywhere quickly.

IMG_20200503_183429.jpg

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Responses to Coronavirus by the polling upthread indicates opinion is split along political party and socio economic lines. It shows Conservatives/Republican, white, older rich cunts reakon they carry natural immunity or maybe think this ugly virus bitch just attacks poor, latino Democrats. 

Anyway it is making some of them do some pretty bat shit crazy stuff that the Orangeman likes to see.

Nothing beats promoting disunity to fight a pandemic. 

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I am torn between wanting to see what happens after Trump got voted out and how crazy this shit could get if he stayed in.

I can't lose.

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This is very interesting as it looks impartialy at the "Blame China" narrative and through the US prism of Trump needing an "enemy" as a focus for his election platform to succeed.

Highly recommended.

 

 

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Sorry typo.. "not all look alike".. I meant all women around him "stand alike" 

....asking someone whose nuts if they're nuts doesn't lead anywhere quickly.

IMG_20200503_183429.jpg

I like how the women all cover their crotches when trump is nearby. Smart.

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8 hours ago, astro said:

I am torn between wanting to see what happens after Trump got voted out and how crazy this shit could get if he stayed in.

I can't lose.

It's a weird feeling init. 

This is going to be a hellish election.

While the sun might kill cv on an inanimate surface within a few minutes,  Trump hasn't yet worked out who is going to manufacture Uvc dildos.

Most people work indoors,  air conditioned.  The spread will continue through summer. 

The us is currently at 36k new cases a day. Restrictions are easing.  The us probably has 10 per cent average national ( given nyc is abott 20 and ny state about 10 to 15).

I can easily see new rates rising to 100k per day,  or 3 million per month, by July.  By August that will equate to 100k deaths per month,  if hospitals are not overloaded.  300 k deaths per month if all hospitals overloaded. 

September?  October?  Hospitals will be completely overtaken.

Will the Republicans allow postal voting?  Will people be prepared to stand in line for 6 hours to vote when cv is all around?

If trump wins will it be legitimate if voters cannot safely vote?

I'm thinking I will have to put up a free 2 air antenna just so I can watch election ads. 

Memes... 40k travelers exiting Chinese with no testing.  Europe close with thousands marshaled like cattle for 6 hours in nyc. Chicago etc arrival halls,  almost no testing.  Some of the worst over promising / under delivering i have seen (sba, ppp, stimulus checks), ppe, competitive open market bidding for ppe,  4 million test kits delivered,  but not usable infrastructure (and pence knew this at the start but withheld this knowledge), quinine, 60k death prediction when by election it will be in numerous hundreds of thousands if not close to 1mill, suicide by bleach,  sunshine,  the navy secretary,  corporate feed (sba, ppa big banks big recipients before small business) Georgia's governor saying they only recently found out about asymptomatic, is the states problem,  not the feds, trump falling to pay sufficient attention to intelligence and health briefings.

To name a few. 

I can't imagine just how many cv skeletons are going to come out at state and federal level during the election

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On 4/30/2020 at 7:33 PM, RobG said:

By the time of the election, the pandemic will be ancient history, the economy will be coming back to life and Trump will claim all the credit.

No, by November the US death toll will be approaching 10 million, the health care and social security systems will have collapsed, unemployment will be over 50 percent, there will be civil war in some redneck states and the US citizens will be barred from entering most western countries. But yeah you dumb cunts will re-elect him.

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13 hours ago, astro said:

I am torn between wanting to see what happens after Trump got voted out and how crazy this shit could get if he stayed in.

I can't lose.

 

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In an election you blame your predecessor and stuff like this just disappears??

Obama said in December 2014. “How do you argue with that? That is not a partisan issue. That is a basic common sense issue that all Americans can agree on ... For the most part people have recognized this is not a Democratic issue, nor a Republican issue, it’s about the safety and security of the American people. So let’s get it done. This can’t get caught up in normal politics. We need to protect the American people and we need to show the world how America leads.”

Obama warned of pandemic threat in December 2014, but Republicans blocked funding

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In a Fox News interview on Sunday night, Trump raised concerns of a resumption economic hostilities with China, calling tariffs “the ultimate punishment” for its response to the pandemic and threatening to withdraw from the trade deal if Beijing’s purchase pledges come up short.

China Trade Deal Turns From Key Trump Asset to an Albatross

So fuck Covid response up, blame the Chinese, Democrats say I put China trade deal ahead of Covid, voters now really pissed at the Chinese, so to keep voters happy I will pull the China trade deal and start a global trade war during an economic world wide depression.

So a large proportion of US public are as smart as bait....this guy has got a cupboard full of spare feet ..and the world can get fucked.

Keep up the good work America.

IMG_20200504_221031.jpg

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On 5/2/2020 at 6:52 AM, Rainbow Spirit said:

So, the so called greatest country in the world will give the American people the choice between either Trump or Biden as the next President. One a complete fuckwit, the other who is in a downward spiral with dementia. What a choice! Surely you can do better than that.

I couldn't agree more...

Hroth

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1 hour ago, hrothgar said:

I couldn't agree more...

Hroth

Rainbow is describing your collective job as Americans being one of making a shambolic fuckup of it. Start owning that first if you want to reverse it. The world is watching and getting pissed off over that failure. It is now killing a lot of us if you haven't fucking noticed.

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I was winning bigger than we've won before...then a horrible thing happened ....on 27th of February I said; "One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear," it didn't do that.

 

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10 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

I was winning bigger than we've won before...then a horrible thing happened ....on 27th of February I said; "One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear," it didn't do that.

The question was "But as far as bringing America together, do you think you're doing that?"

So even though the answer is demonstrably a lie (and shows a fundamental ignorance of English grammar): "I think we're winning very big, and then we had a horrible thing happened, …", it wasn't about Covid-19 per se

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This occured in Flint Michigan.

Leyton is Michigans' Prosecuting Attorney/Minister of Justice.

  

 This now really goes to shit.

This is a guy called Stephen Moore recorded on 15 April

- Starts at 1.15.

- At 6.00 Moore lies about those at risk of dying being the elderly, over weight and those with pre-conditions. This dispels the myth that those dying of COVID-19 were already “at death’s door”.

- 8.15 Moore is on the White House Convid Taskforce 

- 9.35 Moore compares safety/health and economic costs.

- 12.00 Open US Economy by May 1st

- 13.00 Unemployment will alone cause 200K extra deaths.

- 15.00 Moore admits to working with a  "You Can't Close Close America" protest group in Wisconsin. Bingo.

- From here on Moore addresses the issues raised by Zoom participants in this broadcast, a look at the faces behind what is occuring.



So same day 15 March same Stephen Moore was appointed as a WH Confid advisor with views not only ignoring health aspects but misrepresenting them . Here is a recent instance from 2 days ago

3 May 2020 - WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISER STEPHEN MOORE - WARNS 'IT'S GOING TO BE A BAD SUMMER'

So to summarise on 18 April 3 days after his appointment. This is no secret. Trump doesn't give a shit. 

18 April 2020 - White House economic adviser Stephen Moore compared protesters in several states who are demanding an immediate end to "stay-at-home" anti-coronavirus efforts to civil rights icon Rosa Parks.

A video about the above.

At the 2.00 mark (repeat of above vid) Moore is encouraging protest organisors to pay the court costs of anyone arrested.

From 4.00 comparing how this pandemic and the law is being weaponised selectively to build Trump's re-election campaign.

So Moore a White House insider with Trump's consent is actively supporting to the hilt these "You Can't Close Close America" protests, which sprung up initially in Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Minnesota in the middle of last month at the time of his appointment. 

One of those States Michigan the state where this murder in Flint occurred and where the Govenor is Gretchen Whitmer a Democrat Govenor, like most states where these protests have sprung up.

Some are calling for Moore to be charged as an accomplice to this murder and any others that occur in similiar circumstances. That is obviously going nowhere.

Gobsmacked.

EXNRpGxWAAMW7O2 (1).jpeg

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On 5/4/2020 at 2:46 AM, Varan said:

I like how the women all cover their crotches when trump is nearby. Smart.

They could just be all overdue for a vagina lift and awaiting hospitals to free up?

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

One of those states Michigan the state where this murder in Flint occurred and where the Govenor is Gretchen Whitmer a Democrat Govenor, like most states where these protests have sprung up.

I forgot to add photo of 15 April protest in Michigan. These are the people who Moore openly compares to civil rights icon Rosa Parks**. They have put Govenor Whitmer's surname to good effect in their graphics.

** Rosa Parks refused to surrender her seat to a white passenger on a bus in Montgomery, Alabama in 1955 and was prosecuted. Her defiance sparked the Montgomery Bus Boycott. Its success launched nationwide efforts to end racial segregation of public facilities in America with finally the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Lansing Capital Bld Michigan 15 April

IMG_20200505_131242.jpg.15522f81b7d8e777860006d2642c3409.jpg

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24 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I thought he was a tee totaller??

Not sure what you expect from a guy who doesn't know the difference between a "Noble" and a Pulitzer prize (and apparently thinks there is a Nobel prize for journalism).

Whenever Trump says "Nobody knew…" what he means is "I just found out…", and sometimes "I just made up…".

The guys in the photo are interesting, the one on the left looks like a young Eric Bana. The one on the right has an arm patch declaring "Death Victory". Not too clever.

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1 hour ago, RobG said:

Whenever Trump says "Nobody knew…" what he means is "I just found out…", and sometimes "I just made up…".

On the believable scale I put this kid ahead of the Orangeman.

 

 

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Trump seems to be trying to fight this pandemic from the White House,  in the same way that the Johnson-era White House mishandled fought the Vietnam war.  Have we learned nothing?

Trump should have had the balls to designate a Dr. "Norman Schwarzkopf", gave him a clear mandate, and then stood back and let them work.  This thing would have been handled much better.

Instead he has bullied his staff into becoming yes-men,  denied that there is a war on,  blamed the war on scapegoats,  given contradicting orders to his troops,  he has even come up with his own stupid war-winning strategies (drink bleach, and swallow lightbulbs).  The end product is more US dead than Vietnam, in less time.  Congrats.

I am very glad that this is not a military war.

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 Skin in the Game: I have a significant bet on, with an ole flame…

That the Thump, will postpone said November 2020 election.

Around the time the second wave of Covid-19 flows over us here in the 1st world west.

 

(However if it does run... and Biden remains the Dems best bet.... for sure Orange Man will walk it)

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3 hours ago, LSCM24 said:

I am very glad that this is not a military war.

Someone needs to tell these cockheads that....incl Fox who have been actively promoting these protests until this cute UTurn because it is suddenly not a good look for their boss.

 

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This may not help Trump come November

As Trump Pushes to Reopen, Government Sees Virus Toll Nearly Doubling

WASHINGTON — As President Trump presses states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in coronavirus infections and deaths over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1 — nearly double the current level.

The projections, based on data collected by various agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and laid out in an internal document obtained Monday by The New York Times, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of May, up from about 30,000 cases now. There are currently about 1,750 deaths per day, the data shows.

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Without a doubt this thing is going to keep spreading, nearly the entire country has been on lock down for about 3-4 weeks or longer and it is still getting worse.  

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Handout these out and you can kill two birds. 

EXH6QAzX0AAnPld.jpeg

Jack,  I've been out of the detailed analysis loop for a week (other than headline numbers and watching local developments).

NYC

Deaths 19,415 continuing to increase about 200 per day. Extrapolate 2 weeks out for death delay = 22,215. (Btw yesterday's figures showed only deaths at hospitals and nursing homes.  Apparently no one died from cv at home yesterday!). I'm ignoring under counting for this post. 

NYC is currently 20 percent anti body positive.

Assuming some sort of immunity / herd  but noting how aggressive covid is,  I think at least 80 per cent infection rate is likely.

This would extrapolate out to around 90k deaths,  which for the population of 9 mil is close enough to 1 per cent population fatality rate. 

NYC didn't go into full hospital overload.... although thousands died at home.  My best assumption is the fatality rate will triple without adequate oxygen / beds infrastructure. But let's say 70 percent of cases in the bell curve will end up being during hospital overload,  and bring the overload effect back to doubling instead of tripling. 

USA

2 per cent pop fatality rate x 80 per cent infection x 320 mill = 5 million deaths. 

1 per cent (managed infrastructure,  not overloaded.... i.e not realistic) would be 2.5 million deaths. 

Please point out any errors, you know I've been pretty much on top of this but population around here has retreated even further back into see no covid, hear no covid, speak no covid,....... and I need a sanity check. 

before others jump on saying nyc is different.... i agree the rate of transmission is much faster in NYC than suburban/rural, but have not seen any data suggesting the case fatality rate (without hospital overload) is any different in nyc to elsewhere in the us, other than it is worse in locations with worse general health such as lousiana.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, dfw_sailor said:

USA

2 per cent pop fatality rate x 80 per cent infection x 320 mill = 5 million deaths. 

1 per cent (managed infrastructure,  not overloaded.... i.e not realistic) would be 2.5 million deaths. 

Please point out any errors, you know I've been pretty much on top of this but population around here has retreated even further back into see no covid, hear no covid, speak no covid,....... and I need a sanity check. 

before others jump on saying nyc is different.... i agree the rate of transmission is much faster in NYC than suburban/rural, but have not seen any data suggesting the case fatality rate (without hospital overload) is any different in nyc to elsewhere in the us, other than it is worse in locations with worse general health such as lousiana.

I appreciate the effort.  But...the death rate will be much lower.  A new CDC report today said that due to all of the asymptomatic carriers, that the actual mortality rate will not be anywhere near what is being reported, which is typically COVID Deaths/COVID positive cases. 

"First, the case-fatality rate for COVID-19 may be lower than currently estimated ratios if asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections are included (34,35)."

 https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-1595_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM27448

Yes, its still a bad virus but I don't think the doom and gloom picture you paint is wholly accurate.

Hroth

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7 minutes ago, hrothgar said:

I appreciate the effort.  But...the death rate will be much lower.  A new CDC report today said that due to all of the asymptomatic carriers, that the actual mortality rate will not be anywhere near what is being reported, which is typically COVID Deaths/COVID positive cases. 

"First, the case-fatality rate for COVID-19 may be lower than currently 

Thanks for the link,  ive read it in full.

However,  my calc are based on 20 percent antibody positive rate,  published county by county in nyc. This number skews from very high when only sick people are tested,  eventually down to the correct population infection rate when sample collection is truly randomized.  Mu understanding is they are getting better with randomized sampling so 20 per cent is probably reasonably close to true, at this stage.  

Because it is antibody sampling,  there could be a subset who are early asymptomatic or pre symptomatic and not yet developed sufficient antibidies,  but that would be in the margins,  likely a 1 to 2 week delay for those. 

The paper is an analysis of published papers at the beginning of april. It doesn't have any empirical data. It emphasises pre and asymptomatic cases which have not yet presented / tested. That is why antibody testing is critical.

My analysis is not covid deaths / covid cases.  It is population size / number with antibodies,  x number of deaths, adjusted up for the 2 week death delay, and adjusted down to a max infection rate of 80 per cent (herd).

Put more simply (with rough rounding).... 1/5 of nyc has had the virus. 25k died. An extra 3/5 of nyc is still to get the virus so a further 75k deaths.

90k deaths for a population of 9 mil is 1 per cent population fatality rate.

I want you to be right. Please show where my logic is wrong.

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3 minutes ago, dfw_sailor said:

Thanks for the link,  ive read it in full.

However,  my calc are based on 20 percent antibody positive rate,  published county by county in nyc. This number skews from very high when only sick people are tested,  eventually down to the correct population infection rate when sample collection is truly randomized.  Mu understanding is they are getting better with randomized sampling so 20 per cent is probably reasonably close to true, at this stage.  

Because it is antibody sampling,  there could be a subset who are early asymptomatic or pre symptomatic and not yet developed sufficient antibidies,  but that would be in the margins,  likely a 1 to 2 week delay for those. 

The paper is an analysis of published papers at the beginning of april. It doesn't have any empirical data. It emphasises pre and asymptomatic cases which have not yet presented / tested. That is why antibody testing is critical.

My analysis is not covid deaths / covid cases.  It is population size / number with antibodies,  x number of deaths, adjusted up for the 2 week death delay, and adjusted down to a max infection rate of 80 per cent (herd).

Put more simply (with rough rounding).... 1/5 of nyc has had the virus. 25k died. An extra 3/5 of nyc is still to get the virus so a further 75k deaths.

90k deaths for a population of 9 mil is 1 per cent population fatality rate.

I want you to be right. Please show where my logic is wrong.

Your logic if fine.  The major assumption is that an additional 3/5 will get the virus and that the proportion of deaths will be similar to the initial 1/5 that has already contracted the virus.  I am not sure about either of those assumptions.

It seems that most who are dying now are high risk so that the infection rate, if it does hit 4/5, will naturally encompass a large proportion of lower-risk individuals thus leading to a lower death rate among those who have not yest contracted the virus.  

Hroth

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12 minutes ago, hrothgar said:

 

It seems that most who are dying now are high risk so that the infection rate, if it does hit 4/5, will naturally encompass a large proportion of lower-risk individuals thus leading to a lower death rate among those who have not yest contracted the virus.  

Hroth

Fair enough in general, although I disagree that a subset (e.g. 70 yrs plus) is overly infected just because it is showing up more deaths.  

The data we need is antibody testing rates by age demographic as well as by race.

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Just now, dfw_sailor said:

Fair enough in general, although I disagree that a subset (e.g. 70 yrs plus) is overly infected just because it is showing up more deaths.  

The data we need is antibody testing rates by age demographic as well as by race.

Yep.  Agree that more antibody testing would be good.

I'd also like to see data on recoveries being factored into all of the talk about re-opening.  Right now in MI, we have 43k confirmed cases from all testing and 16K recoveries.  That's 1 in 3 so far but the recoveries are outstripping the new cases week over week.  Seems a good sign?  Hard to tell right now.  A few more weeks will be more instructive.

Hroth

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I'm a bit pushed for time right now but Wayne county isn't too bad,  up 7.5 per cent new cases in last 7 days,  fairly linear growth atm.

I'm not a big fan of using recovered ratio as a predictor / success indicator.  Reasons.... lack of testing ability keeps recovered artificially low, time delay to recovered - I have not been able to work a reliable mean time from onset to recovery.

You're in a much much better position than Dallas,  which is currently new cases 40 percent per week and the rate of change is increasing,  before opening started last Friday.

I just wish the usa would get its shit together. The attached pdf shows the 1 page snapshot of reporting detail given in australia.

Yes the numbers are great,  but the detail is even better.

coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_3.pdf

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Fuck it ...one or the other their dead right.

I was really hoping for him to say "irrigation"

 

 

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3 hours ago, hrothgar said:

I appreciate the effort.  But...the death rate will be much lower.  A new CDC report today said that due to all of the asymptomatic carriers, that the actual mortality rate will not be anywhere near what is being reported, which is typically COVID Deaths/COVID positive cases. 

"First, the case-fatality rate for COVID-19 may be lower than currently estimated ratios if asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections are included (34,35)."

 https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-1595_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM27448

Yes, its still a bad virus but I don't think the doom and gloom picture you paint is wholly accurate.

Hroth

"A new CDC report today said that due to all of the asymptomatic carriers, that the actual mortality rate will not be anywhere near what is being reported"

You lying cunt. That study says no such thing. Their asymptomatic rate of 25% general population remains unchanged and it is a if "we include asymptomatic cases"...they don't know.

Take you whack job ideas and lying posts to a thread it belongs...there are plenty ..it isn't here...this one is for political lying.

So fuck off.

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4 hours ago, dfw_sailor said:

Jack,  I've been out of the detailed analysis loop for a week (other than headline numbers and watching local developments).

Wrong thread

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11 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Wrong thread

You want me to repost in the other thread? 

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