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2020 tropical storm season

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Typhoon Vongfong is reducing in intensity due to interaction with Samar and Luzon.  Gusting 115kts at landfall.

 

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Party on Garth.  

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21 hours ago, Tunnel Rat said:

Typhoon Vongfong is reducing in intensity due to interaction with Samar and Luzon.  Gusting 115kts at landfall.

 

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So? Did we get first land fall for the season? 

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11 minutes ago, George Hackett said:

So? Did we get first land fall for the season? 

Yup. One of our mango trees is uprooted...leaning on the bamboo shack. Blew all the green mangoes outta all the trees in town. Street value now $0.

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If it gets named, the first and early Atlantic one will be Arthur.

Arthur Dent?  Will we ever get a  Zaphod?

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17 minutes ago, P_Wop said:

If it gets named, the first and early Atlantic one will be Arthur.

Arthur Dent?  Will we ever get a  Zaphod?

Not until after a-rth urp hil ipdenu

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7 hours ago, P_Wop said:

If it gets named, the first and early Atlantic one will be Arthur.

Arthur Dent?  Will we ever get a  Zaphod?

So long and thanks for all the fish? 

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On 5/14/2020 at 7:37 PM, weightless said:

Maybe? I dunno but the season is under starter's orders.

That's gotta send chills through the Bahamians.  Hope this season is a mild one.

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*That's gotta send chills through the Bahamians*

Or maybe why Sir Dickie is giving Necker up as collateral?!?... A tad late though to cash out.

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8 minutes ago, Marinatrix447 said:

*That's gotta send chills through the Bahamians*

Or maybe why Sir Dickie is giving Necker up as collateral?!?... A tad late though to cash out.

Seeing as Necker is 1,000 miles away from Grand Bahama, I'm not so sure.  But it's well in hurricane alley for later in the season, and was totally pummeled by Irma in 2017.

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"Kottlowksi, AccuWeather's top hurricane expert, meteorologists this week released a 2020 Atlantic hurricane forecast. Kottlowksi's team is calling for 14-18 tropical storms during this upcoming season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Of those storms, seven to nine are forecast to become hurricanes, and two to four are predicted to strengthen into major hurricanes.

“It’s going to be an above-normal season,” Kottlowski said. “On a normal year, we have around 12 storms, six hurricanes and roughly three major hurricanes.”

Its been a few years since Irma indeed....

You feelin' lucky punk!?!

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Update - not a worry but pretty early for this

 

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Now named Arthur

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We are kitesurfing in Cape Hatteras, so Arthur looks interesting for us. BUT, I have two friends on a sailboat half way between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras heading north to the Chesapeake who are likely to have more than just an interesting time of this. 

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39 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

We are kitesurfing in Cape Hatteras, so Arthur looks interesting for us. BUT, I have two friends on a sailboat half way between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras heading north to the Chesapeake who are likely to have more than just an interesting time of this. 

Received this at 1600hrs yesterday from Chris Parker.....here is the relevant portion for your friends:  

Even the worst plausible HWRF predicts vessels exiting GulfStream ENE of Hatteras near 35-30N / 75-10W by Sunset Sun17 will not see more than E@20g25 in GulfStream, and arrival in Norfolk Mon18 morning ENE under 30k, but rapid deterioration thereafter.

Vessels exiting GulfStream off CpLookout (34N / 76-30W) need to do so no later than Dawn Sun17 to avoid wind above E@20-25g30 in GulfStream, and also to reach Port in BeaufortNC in sufficient time Sun17 afternoon to secure vessel in Port.

For offshore vessels sailing NW toward this area, SUGGEST you take whichever GulfStream EXIT and destination you can reach with confidence be the times specified.

Alternative is to move sufficiently far away from the path to be safe.

Strongest winds are in the right-front quadrant (to the E and S of the LO), with 10-20k less wind in N and W quadrants.

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Thanks. They are rounding Cape Hatteras tonight on a beam reach. Depending on storm path they could face headwinds tomorrow.

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GFS has the eye going right over us on the cape. ECMWF still has it further offshore, which would give them strong headwinds tomorrow.

 

Screen Shot 2020-05-17 at 6.38.43 PM.png

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This is early for sure. Hope there are not too many folks out there who were in the process of bailing from the Caribbean before hurricane season. Mid-May has typically been a good time to go. I think I have done it twice.

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My friends made it around the cape last night, but this afternoon finally ran into the predicted northerly, which we enjoyed kiting in with winds from 25-35 gusting to 40. They are off Kitty Hawk and headed offshore for the night, looking forward to the predicted wind turn to the NE tomorrow morning to make it to Chesapeake Bay by late afternoon.

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In other parts of the world: Cyclone Amphan has the potential to get very ugly.

"The tropical cyclone #Amphan is now a Category 5 cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. Beyond exceptional rapid intensification has occurred over the past 24 hours. Amphan has intensified from 65 knots (75 mph) sustained winds to 140 knots (160 mph). This puts Amphan into the list of the most extreme rapid intensifications of tropical systems on Earth"

https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/india-cyclone-amphan-bengal-mk/

That is crazy growth. It could be a direct hit or near miss to Kolkata which is close to the Bangladesh border. It also has a huge wind field. They are evacuating something like 5 million people...

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The SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are already quite high, so some intensification is likely as Cristobal moved north to the Louisana coast.  This is one to watch carefully.

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its awfully early in the season for a big storm to form. Hopefully Cristobal doesnt get any worse than a TS but that would require a very big improvement in our luck in 2020.

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Charming.  Thanks for the heads up!

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The possibility of rapid intensification is high:

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  21% is   3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  64% is   5.1 times climatological mean (12.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  45% is   5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  35% is   5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  25% is   6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  31% is   4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  22% is   3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  10% is   2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

The environment is expected to be less favorable near Hawaii. Of course, if it blows up into a bigger storm early it'll take longer to wind down.

2020ep08_diagplot_202007221200.png

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As always the route relative to the Big Island will significantly matter.  

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Not a good look for Oahu. Hopefully it'll trend more North. Fingers crossed. Stay safe.

hwrf_mslp_wind_08E_11.png

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1 minute ago, Grande Mastere Dreade said:

fuck it's not even august and we're down to the I storm... 

Just keep repeating - There is no global warming.  There is no global warming...

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3 hours ago, Ned said:

Thanks. Been wet all morning.  Gonna get wetter.  

A couple of degrees of track shift will make a huge difference in the coastal outcome. 

Yes. I think the NAM is running a bit closer to Oahu than the other models (I don't have a good source for NAM). HWRF is suggesting this:

image.png.f7d49d5ab5c8beb219d3690f09f29680.png

GFS is the nicest look.

Fingers crossed for more North and less wind.

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1 hour ago, Grande Mastere Dreade said:

fuck it's not even august and we're down to the I storm... 

And one Hurricane and one low soon to be "interesting" for lots of folks.

 

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Tracking on radar now since Dougie's on final approach (45 min delay for some reason, likely human software on my end).  Seems to have taken a step to the left when the eye was centered off of East Molokai, before Kalaupapa.  Doing an eyeball extrapolation off the radar track I'm wondering about the east side of Kauai.  If he takes another step to the left instead of a jump to the right then cocktails at Turtle Bay may be a bad idea in about two hours. 

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hmo&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Buoy progs not backing down.  

At about 1700-ish should be nowcasting the northwesterly onslaught. 

 

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15 minutes ago, Ned said:

 

Tracking on radar now since Dougie's on final approach (45 min delay for some reason, likely human software on my end).  Seems to have taken a step to the left when the eye was centered off of East Molokai, before Kalaupapa.  Doing an eyeball extrapolation off the radar track I'm wondering about the east side of Kauai.  If he takes another step to the left instead of a jump to the right then cocktails at Turtle Bay may be a bad idea in about two hours. 

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hmo&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Buoy progs not backing down.  

At about 1700-ish should be nowcasting the northwesterly onslaught. 

 

I've got it on radar near real time here: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=hmo&product=NCR&loop=yes

It doesn't auto-update since I'm using the non-flash version. So I just hit the "loop" link periodically or refresh.

It is wobbling a bit. Hopefully still heading 290T or greater net.

Still rather decent WX in town. Worried about the North and East shores.

Best of luck!

 

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We just had a squall roll through Wahiawa.  

The best news I see is that it's trucking so probably won't be a stop somewhere and rain for a long time event, at least until Kauai. 

Have to stop watching the loop.  It's mesmerizing....  Also, thanks for the link. 

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34 minutes ago, Grande Mastere Dreade said:

though a smallish storm (if that's even possible)  number of marinas got hit in corpus

800.jpeg

1000.jpeg

Where on earth did the refrigerator come from?

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2 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Where on earth did the refrigerator come from?

Guess you have never been in a hurricane...

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On 7/27/2020 at 2:03 PM, Rasputin22 said:

Guess you have never been in a hurricane...

some sport-fish boats use them on the dock for bait and ice

 

 

 

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If there was a modern day Ishmael he would have floated off to rescue in a dockside ice cooler or bait refrigerator instead of the Queequeg's cedar coffin in "Moby Dick'.

Lecture Tasks A Brief Survey Herman Melville &Moby Dick - ppt download

Pin on Illustration

 

 

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21 hours ago, Rasputin22 said:

If there was a modern day Ishmael he would have floated off to rescue in a dockside ice cooler or bait refrigerator instead of the Queequeg's cedar coffin in "Moby Dick'.

 

 

there was a story of a 80 year old couple who had to be rescued off their boat as they tried to ride it out at the dock/mooring..

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Anyone wanting to sail in a stiff breeze needs to head to the east coast of Florida. :rolleyes: TS Isaias looks to be heading right up the wast coast all the way to New England.

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1C4F97BF-953A-46BF-9D2D-1438C5A74955.png.542cb535b33d999235b2f5cf593ece7f.png

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mini squalls widely sped little rain 35 40 max briefly non event for the keys and dade

do hope mar a lago  gets a twister or water spout

may spin up a bit in the gulf stream tonight 

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10 hours ago, nota said:

mini squalls widely sped little rain 35 40 max briefly non event for the keys and dade

do hope mar a lago  gets a twister or water spout

may spin up a bit in the gulf stream tonight 

It’s putting a slight dent in my vacation plans as I was supposed to leave with my boat tomorrow and head towards Block Island. I’m may wait till Wednesday afternoon after the storm passes

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Mid Chesapeake this morning wind NE at 16-18 G25. Heavy rain. Tornado watch with warnings popping up..  forecasting steady 40 with gusts higher in a couple of hours and then gone a couple of hours past that. A couple of feet of surge expected but coming at low tide here. 
 

 

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well we're up to "K" already, interesting another tropical depression behind "J"  , but the Big thing coming off Africa Lauria or Marco? looks real interestingtwo_atl_2d0.png

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On 8/4/2020 at 5:46 AM, Innocent Bystander said:

Mid Chesapeake this morning wind NE at 16-18 G25. Heavy rain. Tornado watch with warnings popping up..  forecasting steady 40 with gusts higher in a couple of hours and then gone a couple of hours past that. A couple of feet of surge expected but coming at low tide here. 
 

 

send some down here, please note the time

 

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14 hours ago, Not for nothing said:

well we're up to "K" already, interesting another tropical depression behind "J"  , but the Big thing coming off Africa Lauria or Marco? looks real interestingtwo_atl_2d0.png

Disturbance 1 and 2 are Tropical Waves, not Tropical Depressions per the NHC......

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2 hours ago, Huggy Bear Brown said:

Disturbance 1 and 2 are Tropical Waves, not Tropical Depressions per the NHC......

got you! 

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Yeah.  Time to start paying attention in the central Gulf region, our hot-seat time is last week of August through second week of September.

We have a brand-new marina here in New Orleans at West End.  I don't want to see it tested, though.  It took this long to get it done after Katrina racked up the old one.

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