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These 24 States Have Uncontrolled Coronavirus Outbreaks, Study Says

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A shocking new report estimates that 24 states have an uncontrolled COVID-19 spread, right as the country considers reopening. "While we are confident that some states have controlled transmission, we are similarly confident that many states have not," the researchers, from Imperial College of London, wrote. They based their data on the number of people that might get infected by a single patient who has coronavirus. "Most states in the Midwest and the South have rates of transmission that suggest the epidemic is not yet under control." (They note that their study has not yet been peer-reviewed.) Click through the slideshow above for the 24 states that still haven't contained their coronavirus outbreaks, according to researchers.

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/0P9KnnD4/these-24-states-have-uncontrolled-coronavirus-outbreaks-study-says

 

and link to the actual study

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf

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The pdf file on the second link actually works... and shows Texas with the highest "fertility" rate...

Fuck...

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From the conclusions:

"We find that the posterior mean of the current reproduction is above 1 in 9 states, with 95% confidence, and above 1
in 25 states with 50% confidence. These current reproduction numbers suggest that in many states the US epidemic is
not under control and caution must be taken in loosening current interventions without additional measures in place."

Reproduction above 1 means the disease is spreading at an increasing rate, however that needs to be tempered with the additional testing that's being done that is likely finding more positives than previously.

A confidence level of 50% is a very low bar, which indicates they're really stretching the stats to get to 25 states. The 9 states at the 95% confidence level are a worry. The study really is just an indicator to say "hey, look more closely at these states as there may be an issue".

It's now 10 days since the date of the study (data from 17 May, written 20 May, released on 24 May), so there is actual data to compare with. The worst state identified by the study is Texas. Below are graphs from worldometers for 28 May showing that by 17 May the number of new cases and deaths was reasonably stable. Since then, the numbers have been dropping. While that's not a prediction of future performance nor proof that the virus is beaten, it is an indication that the situation is not a "shocking" uncontrolled spread. 

1691178071_Texas-Dailynewcases20200528.png.cbc46ca49a7f41f0caf82ddcf6cf9643.png1664277038_Texas-Dailynewdeaths20200528.png.5a726417351b2b3eb6e9bd3617fec434.png

 

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Except for the reports that Texas (and Florida) have been fudging their cases to the low side.

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The second saddest aspect to this whole thing, after the criminal negligence showed by Cuomo et al in housing infected patients in nursing homes, is the pathetic politicization. High density, and at risk populations have and will have more infections. Distancing and sanitation at an institutional, and personal level reduce spread. The attempts to label this is indicative of why those who are casting blame should never be allowed near anything resembling political power. 

 

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1 hour ago, LionessRacing said:

The second saddest aspect to this whole thing, after the criminal negligence showed by Cuomo et al in housing infected patients in nursing homes, is the pathetic politicization. High density, and at risk populations have and will have more infections. Distancing and sanitation at an institutional, and personal level reduce spread. The attempts to label this is indicative of why those who are casting blame should never be allowed near anything resembling political power. 

 

I will cast a lot of blame on the Federal Executive. Then again, I ain't running for office.

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It is really nutso that the feds have not implemented national 

periodic random tests. 

In reality that is the Drumphistas biggest screw-up. 

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1 hour ago, fastyacht said:

I will cast a lot of blame on the Federal Executive. Then again, I ain't running for office.

Lioness Racing sounds like he is . . 

for our sakes I hope he runs in Cali, Bay Area 

He'll go down in flames. 

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5 hours ago, AJ Oliver said:

Lioness Racing sounds like he is . . 

for our sakes I hope he runs in Cali, Bay Area 

He'll go down in flames. 

my past is far too colorful to bother with running for public office. I'm leaving the Bay area as fast as I can build my way out, hopefully escaping before the inevitable crash 

 

 

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Sounds like only about half the states are out of control then. That means our President is handling this very, very well. Bigly well.

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So I know that 3 days in a row do not make a trend, but still, not looking good...

Here is the number of daily new cases in Texas... while the state is slowly but surely re-opening.

Latest decision by our wise governor: let's re-open bingo parlors and entertainment water parks. Because as everybody knows, they are essentials for the economy of the state and do not represent any significant additional risk of spreading COVID 19...

This is getting un-real.

image.thumb.png.00e6e3aa00c333e30260b78bb14a3b7c.png

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On 5/27/2020 at 6:53 PM, Left Shift said:

Except for the reports that Texas (and Florida) have been fudging their cases to the low side.

Speaking only for Florida, the cases being reported are probably because the person doing the counting had to be let go.  Probably just budget cuts.  I'm sure the governor would never try to deceive the public. :rolleyes:

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going by this metric, a lot of the early opening states are now back in the bad.  click on the buttons to see the changes over time.  not good.

https://rt.live/

Quote

These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.

 

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So......... Houston is putting up the temporary hospital at the NRG stadium parking lot. Again. Not a good omen (first time was just a couple months too soon).  I really hope that I am wrong about what is coming.  All my friends are racing on weekends and Wed nights, today at grocery less than half of customers wearing masks, I could go on but it's just depressing.  We're open for business here!

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30 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

So......... Houston is putting up the temporary hospital at the NRG stadium parking lot. Again. Not a good omen (first time was just a couple months too soon).  I really hope that I am wrong about what is coming.  All my friends are racing on weekends and Wed nights, today at grocery less than half of customers wearing masks, I could go on but it's just depressing.  We're open for business here!

In my little corner of Conn., we are open for business but *everyone* is masked and being careful. A few big employers in CT never shut down and did not have severe outbreaks. When done correctly it can work. But when boneheaded, it will fail miserably and unfortunately and ironically, the deniers are the ones who fuck it up for themselves and everyone else.

Some of them have a perverse pride in trying to make it flame up quickly.

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Here is the R curve for Texas. 12 April is when the "shelter" order started. It ended at the start of the red section (29 April), so you could say that the spread increased during the shelter order and has been decreasing ever since the order was lifted. New York has been at 0.8 for about 2 months.

1062657460_TexasR20200528.png.85ff030f008f21a4da8596dee26bb98b.png

 

Similar with daily new cases, Texas might actually be at the start of a third wave (1st wave peak around 9 April, second around 1 May), but it will be another week before they really know given that case reporting will drop over the weekend. Next Wednesday local time will be interesting. If it is a new wave, it will be well underway and very difficult to stop by then.

1048245125_Texas-Dailynewcases20200530.png.443efe1cd4a8cfdd0ae9969077eecd1d.png

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The formula is in place, all that was required was something that did not have a twitter or facebook account to run out of control.

Anything that threatens revenue has to be ignored, there is no way out of this, I'm not sure that a next President can reign this in.  It's the fuck you I got mine way America operates in.

Add to that the gun nuts have been looking for an excuse to fire off a few rounds at black people.  The balck people have been looking for a reason to riot.

It really is fucked this time.

Is it time to call ...

image.thumb.png.3de51468aa6cc370679e3400b4011dab.png

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The failed state flag is a little premature. We are in the throes of what makes America what it is. 
 

Ain’t no white guys looking to shoot unarmed black people or rioters over here, unless they are an unhinged police officer. 
 

That and the black people haven’t been looking for a reason to riot, it’s been the same reason since way before 1964 and Equal Rights. They are now preparing for a full on revolution if things go the way I hope. They deserve better and I hope we finally help them achieve it. 

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On 5/27/2020 at 7:36 PM, LionessRacing said:

The second saddest aspect to this whole thing, after the criminal negligence showed by Cuomo et al in housing infected patients in nursing homes, is the pathetic politicization. High density, and at risk populations have and will have more infections. Distancing and sanitation at an institutional, and personal level reduce spread. The attempts to label this is indicative of why those who are casting blame should never be allowed near anything resembling political power. 

 

When your political party fucks up so horribly bad that you can't even come up with an argument in their defense, the next step is to decry the "politicization" of the issue.

When the President of the United States is fucking actively discouraging "distancing and sanitation at an institutional, and personal level," you might have something of a political problem on your hands.

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5 hours ago, fucket said:

When your political party fucks up so horribly bad that you can't even come up with an argument in their defense, the next step is to decry the "politicization" of the issue.

When the President of the United States is fucking actively discouraging "distancing and sanitation at an institutional, and personal level," you might have something of a political problem on your hands.

Wow the man from the land of the 2nd most famous machine corruption of the last 150 yrs, and with the homicide rate that exceeds most hellholes in the third world wants to preach about political party fuck ups? that's hilariously pathetic. Hilarious you have the arrogance to speak up, and pathetic that you don't realize how bad it is, When the website is titled heyjackass.com and shows that not only is the city beset by homicide rates that are higher than anywhere else in the US, the perps can't even shoot very well   I'll bet you put frowny faces on Facebook posts too, you so bad... 

 

image.thumb.png.156666746e9cb2b01e4ee70b0236a4b8.png

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19 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

... with the homicide rate that exceeds most hellholes in the third world ...

Lioness you might want to check your facts on per capita basis not a leader in the US and certainly not internationally

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And... backup on topic. More specifically, Texas, since that's where I live...

If you look at the number of new cases per day in Texas since the beginning of the pandemic,  the top 3 days are in the last 4 days...

Not a good omen. 

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12 hours ago, Laurent said:

And... backup on topic. More specifically, Texas, since that's where I live...

 If you look at the number of new cases per day in Texas since the beginning of the pandemic,  the top 3 days are in the last 4 days...

 Not a good omen. 

That needs to be considered with the increase in testing. Two months ago there were 6,000 tests per day, currently there are over 27,000 tests per day so you'd expect the number of cases to increase unless there was a marked decrease in incidence. Probably a better indicator is the number of hospitalisations and deaths. Dunno about the hospitalisations, but deaths are at worldometers. They aren't dropping as fast as they should be, but while the disease hasn't gone away, the "second wave" isn't apparent yet given that the "shelter in place" order ended just over a month ago.

 

 

Texas daily 20200601.png

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10 hours ago, RobG said:

That needs to be considered with the increase in testing. Two months ago there were 6,000 tests per day, currently there are over 27,000 tests per day so you'd expect the number of cases to increase unless there was a marked decrease in incidence. Probably a better indicator is the number of hospitalisations and deaths. Dunno about the hospitalisations, but deaths are at worldometers. They aren't dropping as fast as they should be, but while the disease hasn't gone away, the "second wave" isn't apparent yet given that the "shelter in place" order ended just over a month ago.

 

 

Texas daily 20200601.png

ratio of positive tests to total tests would be even better indicator of the test aspect,yes?

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7 hours ago, fastyacht said:

ratio of positive tests to total tests would be even better indicator of the test aspect,yes?

No. If the criteria for being tested change the results can't be directly compared.

In the early stages, only people with symptoms and likely to have Covid-19 were tested so the ratio of positives to overall tests was relatively high. Now testing is much more widespread so likely to have a much higher proportion of negative results unless the cases are growing as fast or faster than the testing.

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4 hours ago, RobG said:

No. If the criteria for being tested change the results can't be directly compared.

In the early stages, only people with symptoms and likely to have Covid-19 were tested so the ratio of positives to overall tests was relatively high. Now testing is much more widespread so likely to have a much higher proportion of negative results unless the cases are growing as fast or faster than the testing.

That makes sense about the early restrictions, but just going forward, if random sampling is done...it would say something

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The following graphic shows total test and positives, with a 7 day moving average. Hovering over the bars shows the underlying data, I actually think the bars are rubbish, the tallest one in May says 22,317 tests but appears to show over 50k tests on the left axis (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/texas). Weird, maybe I just can't read a graph. Anyhow, it seems to show that the percentage of positive tests has been around 5% for over a month.

343910344_TestsVsCases200602.png.36705982018b58843914f634f5df74fa.png

Anyhow, worldometer is showing a concerning trend:

262930002_Texas-Dailynewcases20200603.thumb.png.d1f72d631003383c3cd564eb45c75aaf.png136736695_Texas-Dailynewdeaths20200603.thumb.png.9b1e599a9e0be999b0ef44db87d066aa.png

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Well, it seems that the original report in the OP was right at least for Texas (sorry, this is where I live, so this is where I will focus my attention...).

The number of new cases, more worringly, the number of active cases and the number of deaths are flairing up during the last week.

 

In Texas, the number of active  cases has increased by 43% in one week. (42119 on June 20 vs. 29379 on June 13)

 

To which our governor is saying :"don't worry, there are plenty of available beds in the hospitals". BUT I DON'T WANT TO GET IN A FUCKING HOSPITAL BED !!

 

image.png.a55a79e9f15181f9cb4fa424bbc5711d.png

 

image.png.bfb31cc64e0930758546a2017bc6a7de.png

image.png.ca15ce23e2186e10a26a336a75f4947f.png

image.png

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On 6/21/2020 at 4:28 PM, Laurent said:

Well, it seems that the original report in the OP was right at least for Texas (sorry, this is where I live, so this is where I will focus my attention...).

Unfortunately I think you're right. And when Trump's statement that he wanted to reduce testing to reduce the number of recorded cases was dismissed as a joke, his action to cut funding to federal testing programs (including in Texas) shows that even if he was joking then, he isn't now. He also stated that it wasn't a joke, he was serious, apparently he never jokes (so the injecting bleach thing wasn't a joke either?).

Even republicans are criticising him for the move. Houston hospitals are nearing capacity, so this could get very serious.

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On 6/24/2020 at 7:50 PM, RobG said:

Houston hospitals are nearing capacity, so this could get very serious.

 

"Houston, we have a problem."

The data below may not interest everybody, but I know that a few of us live in the area... And I am afraid it will be repeated in other large metropolitan areas.

For those who always find some anecdotal data: "my neighbor has a cousin working in the hospital and he says that there are free beds"... type of deal, here is some hard data.

This is from www.tmc.edu  TMC stands for Texas Medical Center; this is a consortium of all the major hospitals and all the major universities teaching medicine in the Houston area. The data below is for Harris county (basically, Houston) and all adjacent counties. TMC describes itself as "the number one "medical city" in the world". Not a small player...

 

As of June 24th:

  • ICU Occupancy: 99.6%: 1325/1330 beds. They plan to increase ICU capacity in the coming weeks, to 1703 and stretch it even further later to 2207.

image.png.299417453df8c4030622715ef2238a02.png

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-icu-bed-capacity-modeling/

 

  • Covid19 Occupancy rate in ICU: 28% and growing FAST  The occupancy rate of Covid19 in ICU has been growing at a daily rate of 6.4% for the past 9 days. From 16% to 28% in 9 days... What it means is that you better not have a car accident, a heart attack or some elective surgery in the coming weeks; you will be in competion with some Covid 19 patients for a bed in ICU. And some of those covid 19 patients are FUCKING MORONS who went to bars and gatherings without social distancing or masks, because "it infringes my personal freedom" or "this is just the flu"

image.png.3060264ffab9115b11b04274212ece14.png

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-covid-19-icu-occupancy-trend/

 

  • The % of positive tests is GROWING. The number of tests performed may be increasing (slightly, from the graph below), but stating that the increase of cases is due to the increase in testing is false. If the amount of testing was "on top" of the progression of the pandemic, the % of positive cases should go down as we test more and more people: this is NOT the case! The more we test, the more the % of positive results increases!!! That means that we are finally discovering the extent of the spread of the virus.

image.png.8e5a4c57a9cab992f4ae3c5847002e1d.png

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/average-daily-covid-19-testing-metrics-by-week-monday-sunday/

 

  • Last but not least, the number of daily new cases is exploding! The 7 day average went from 409 to 970 in 9 days

 

image.png.00419422477cf42bb5cbd1f0e053c17a.png

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/daily-cumulative-covid-19-positive-cases-for-greater-houston-area/

 

"errrr, Houston, we do not have a problem..... we're fucked!"

 

 

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I confirm, unless there is a dramatic turn of events, Texas is fucked and Houston is in deep shit. Data from Worldometer and tmc.edu

The number of ACTIVE cases in Texas is over 100,000 for the first time.

image.png.bcd106686dac53cf2e720fdfa3b0e470.png

The 7 days average death rate has never been so high.

image.png.1c3964b1ef68b71a09e7daab595506ff.png

 

 

In Houston, the number of daily COVID19 hospitalization is going through the roof

image.png.e62a51052218327b74d994742e0f027f.png

 

The ICU and Med/Surgery beds occupied by COVID patients went above 25% for the first time. The hospitals had to go to "Phase 2" to increase the number of available beds.

image.png.065eba533322f2bc538ad06b9a4d780b.png

 

The ONLY silver lining is the % of positive tests is going down.

image.png.fc5e95c41c5c5e71c31bd693bca1c4ab.png

 

But since the number of tests has increased, it is only a reduction of 200 positive test per day in the past week.

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For the THREE people who are interested in the stats for Texas and Houston in particular... If I am completely bold on my marketing prediction, maybe FOUR people are interested by the figures below...

Anyway; this is STILL not going in the right direction, even if there seems to be the beginning of a shadow of some kind of plateauing in Houston (wishfull thinking, most likely).

In Texas, the daily death count (7 day moving average) will reach 100 for the first time most likely today.

The daily death count (7 day moving average) has been MULTIPLIED BY 2.8 SINCE THE BEGINNING OF JULY

image.png.6acf0ec7e136741200873d86633a6e35.png

 

The number of ACTIVE cases has increased by 71% since the beginning of the month. We will reach 150k active cases in the coming days.

image.png.cc6e58d0600b1c23cbb683a760dedd7f.png

 

The number of daily new cases in Texas has passed 10,000 only three times since the beginning of the pandemic. Those 3 times occurred all in the last week.

image.png.cff9e0e44e170c47492edfcf3135b338.png

 

For Houston, the number of daily new cases (weekly average) seems to start plateauing... but at a level four times higher than a month ago...

image.png.b1f07afce986462386f98cc120f0b05a.png

 

After a respite in the percentage of positive tests in the past few days, the trend is going back up again...

image.png.4bdf919032c86db21a8f2157c63d548e.png

 

And the number of ICU or MED/SURG beds used by COVI19 patients is up to about 27%

image.png.83a1f9e8b88a45ff4a249bd57c567189.png

 

 

 

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From the House of Orange:

“The President has said unmistakably that he wants schools to open ... and when he says ‘open’ he means open and full, kids being able to attend each and every day at their school,” McEnany said at a press briefing. “The science should not stand in the way of this.”

WTF???

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If I was an older parent or an at risk parent I would be scared as s*** about sending my kids back to school.  They wipe snot and sneeze all over everything, and no way they are wearing masks all day either.  It will spread like wildfire in schools and very few kids will show any symptoms until its too late.  

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On 7/16/2020 at 4:50 PM, SeattleB said:

If I was an older parent or an at risk parent I would be scared as s*** about sending my kids back to school.  They wipe snot and sneeze all over everything, and no way they are wearing masks all day either.  It will spread like wildfire in schools and very few kids will show any symptoms until its too late.  

Yep...

And think about the teachers...

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Texas news:

The Lone Star State passed the 100 deaths in one day on July 8th

It passed the 200 deaths in one day on July 22nd, two weeks later.

It passed the 300 deaths in one day on July 9th, one week later.

 

But the schools must re-open as normal in the coming weeks...

The only shimmer of light is that the number of new cases is stabilizing/decreasing, but still at a very high level of around 8000 cases per day for the past two weeks. So maybe we will not reach 400 deaths per day???

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On 7/16/2020 at 11:42 PM, Left Shift said:

From the House of Orange:

“The President has said unmistakably that he wants schools to open ... and when he says ‘open’ he means open and full, kids being able to attend each and every day at their school,” McEnany said at a press briefing. “The science should not stand in the way of this.”

WTF???

You know the CDC, and Dr. Fauci both recommend this too, right?

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5 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

You know the CDC, and Dr. Fauci both recommend this too, right?

CDC & Fauci recommend opening the schools up when it is safe. Countermeasures & safety protocols need to be implemented. The schools should not be in a hot zone. Once again it’s not a country wide or state wide. It should be individual school systems. The guys running the show make the call. Not some fools in Washington.
 

Read today’s news about the camp. It will make you think twice about the kids going back. Scary if one of them goes home and kills their parent or grandparent. 

 

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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1286457920301416

In Houston at the Texas Medical Center we have our on Dr. Fauci - Dr. Peter Hotez who sent a plan to deal with the pandemic to the White House. The local focus is on what has to happen to open schools safely by October 1.  For any plan to work everyone has to get on board. So, we're royally fucked.  It's a long but good read anyway, probably will be featured someday in a history section "If Only". 

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13 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

You know the CDC, and Dr. Fauci both recommend this too, right?

You realize that young Barron's school has determined that it is NOT safe to have any in person teaching this fall, right?

Different rules for rich people?

(and no, they didn't recommend the mad Mango's proposal)

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11 hours ago, Left Shift said:

You realize that young Barron's school has determined that it is NOT safe to have any in person teaching this fall, right?

Different rules for rich people?

(and no, they didn't recommend the mad Mango's proposal)

young Barron will probably have a private tutor

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