Grrr...

Here come the Florida deaths

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5 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

The government is giving you more money Jeffreaux! Better pretend to care about the poor!

If they are, I haven't seen a dime of it.  When do I get my trump check?

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2 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

If they are, I haven't seen a dime of it.  When do I get my trump check?

Yea, Where are my fucking checks??

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17 minutes ago, Raz'r said:
23 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

yes, i.e. the Fed is literally printing money.

hahaha nope. No need to "print" anymore ya neanderthal.

The fed is, not literally, "literally printing money".  The Fed is buying assets.  Putting deposits in bank and trading firms for the title to some bullshit asset.

Right. The U.S. Treasury are the ones who actually print the money. The Treasury Bureau of Engraving & Printing, to be precise.

Do it pretty much all day, every day.

- DSK

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27 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

hahaha nope. No need to "print" anymore ya neanderthal.

The fed is, not literally, "literally printing money".  The Fed is buying assets.  Putting deposits in bank and trading firms for the title to some bullshit asset.

Ok so not "literally" but close to it:

Quote

 

Yesterday the Federal Reserve announced that to counteract the economic effects of the pandemic, it’s making $2.3 trillion available in extra credit to spur loans to cities and to small and medium-sized businesses.  

It’s reasonable to ask: Where did the Fed find $2.3 trillion? Was it taxpayer money? No. It’s more like magic.

“In a certain sense, it is creating it out of thin air,” Homa Zarghamee, an economics professor at Barnard College who advises Core Econ, the publisher of the open-source economics textbook “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio is reading with listeners.

Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke talked about this after the last financial crisis: “To lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account they have with the Fed. So it’s much more akin, although not exactly the same, to printing money, than it is to borrowing.”

Note that printing money is just a metaphor. The Fed has no printing presses. But it has a keyboard which only a central bank can use to magically increase the total supply of money, which helps stimulate the economy when disaster is afoot, like now.  

https://www.marketplace.org/2020/04/10/federal-reserve-assistance-extra-credit/

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Ok so not "literally" but close to it:

 

Just funnin ya man. Watch out, or with that lack of humor folks might starting thinking you're a democRat.

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13 minutes ago, Raz'r said:
22 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Ok so not "literally" but close to it:

 

Just funnin ya man. Watch out, or with that lack of humor folks might starting thinking you're a democRat.

I'm kind of impressed, it almost looks like Jeffie actually learned something today.

He better knock that shit off, or they'll kick him out of the club

- DSK

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1 hour ago, LenP said:

Not arguing that they did not screw up, was just pointing out that the talking point about LTC facilities was provably false. Yes, they thought that it would not hit NY like it did, they did not shut down fast enough and so it spread like wildfire. 

No that point was not proved false.  You like %   try this States that required LTC's to take COVID positive  patients NY 6% MI 5% NJ 12% deaths of LTC population   States that banned the requirement FL 1.6% CA 2%   Tell us again how ordering  LTC's to take patients was no big deal?

 

https://www.propublica.org/article/fire-through-dry-grass-andrew-cuomo-saw-covid-19-threat-to-nursing-homes-then-he-risked-adding-to-it

But the week before, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his health commissioner, Howard Zucker, had all but made such discharges mandatory. If a hospital determined a patient who needed nursing home care was medically stable, the home had to accept them, even if they had been treated for COVID-19. Moreover, the nursing home could not test any such prospective residents — those treated for COVID-19 or those hospitalized for other reasons — to see if they were newly infected or perhaps still contagious despite their treatment. It was all laid out in a formal order, effective March 25. New York was the only state in the nation that barred testing of those being placed or returning to nursing homes.

In the weeks that followed the March 25 order, COVID-19 tore through New York state’s nursing facilities, killing more than 6,000 people — about 6% of its more than 100,000 nursing home residents. In all, as many as 4,500 COVID-19 infected patients were sent to nursing homes across the state, according to a count conducted by The Associated Press.

States that issued orders similar to Cuomo’s recorded comparably grim outcomes. Michigan lost 5% of roughly 38,000 nursing home residents to COVID-19 since the outbreak began. New Jersey lost 12% of its more than 43,000 residents.

In Florida, where such transfers were barred, just 1.6% of 73,000 nursing home residents died of the virus. California, after initially moving toward a policy like New York’s, quickly revised it. So far, it has lost 2% of its 103,000 nursing home residents.

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, The Joker said:

No that point was not proved false.  You like %   try this States that required LTC's to take COVID positive  patients NY 6% MI 5% NJ 12% deaths of LTC population   States that banned the requirement FL 1.6% CA 2%   Tell us again how ordering  LTC's to take patients was no big deal?

 

https://www.propublica.org/article/fire-through-dry-grass-andrew-cuomo-saw-covid-19-threat-to-nursing-homes-then-he-risked-adding-to-it

But the week before, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his health commissioner, Howard Zucker, had all but made such discharges mandatory. If a hospital determined a patient who needed nursing home care was medically stable, the home had to accept them, even if they had been treated for COVID-19. Moreover, the nursing home could not test any such prospective residents — those treated for COVID-19 or those hospitalized for other reasons — to see if they were newly infected or perhaps still contagious despite their treatment. It was all laid out in a formal order, effective March 25. New York was the only state in the nation that barred testing of those being placed or returning to nursing homes.

In the weeks that followed the March 25 order, COVID-19 tore through New York state’s nursing facilities, killing more than 6,000 people — about 6% of its more than 100,000 nursing home residents. In all, as many as 4,500 COVID-19 infected patients were sent to nursing homes across the state, according to a count conducted by The Associated Press.

States that issued orders similar to Cuomo’s recorded comparably grim outcomes. Michigan lost 5% of roughly 38,000 nursing home residents to COVID-19 since the outbreak began. New Jersey lost 12% of its more than 43,000 residents.

In Florida, where such transfers were barred, just 1.6% of 73,000 nursing home residents died of the virus. California, after initially moving toward a policy like New York’s, quickly revised it. So far, it has lost 2% of its 103,000 nursing home residents.

 

 

 

 

Nice to see SOME lessons being learned. Too bad others are being ignored.

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

I'm kind of impressed, it almost looks like Jeffie actually learned something today.

He better knock that shit off, or they'll kick him out of the club

- DSK

I would never belong to any club that would accept me as one of its members.

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1 hour ago, The Joker said:

 

You are misusing the data. Florida's outbreak is just ramping up, if/when Florida reaches the same level of cases per 100k, then it would be a valid comparison. Right now, it looks like Florida is doing a worse job protecting LTC residents. 

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2 hours ago, roundthebuoys said:

But, but our freedom...to infect!  What about that?  

 

FIFY

In order to support other "freedom" to cause mass slaughter opportunities, I propose we remove all speed limits on highways and uproot all stop signs near schools and old folks homes.  

That'll promote fuckin' freedom all right!

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23 minutes ago, LenP said:

You are misusing the data. Florida's outbreak is just ramping up, if/when Florida reaches the same level of cases per 100k, then it would be a valid comparison. Right now, it looks like Florida is doing a worse job protecting LTC residents. 

Huh?  Nothing shows there is a ramp up of cases in FL LTC's it is the under 40 crowd that is surging in cases.    Why would Florida need to reach NY levels of cases to be a fair comparison?   The whole point is unlike New York  Florida separated the positive cases from the start.  How can you claim that Florida's 1.7% deaths in LTC's shows a worse job than New York's 6% deaths at LTC's?    How about the general population?   Florida is at 15 deaths per 100,000  New York is at 275 per 100,000. 

There is no metric that shows Florida is going to be anywhere near the disaster that New York's suffered.

Spring break was months ago where was the surge everyone predicted?

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

FIFY

In order to support other "freedom" to cause mass slaughter opportunities, I propose we remove all speed limits on highways and uproot all stop signs near schools and old folks homes.  

That'll promote fuckin' freedom all right!

You are always free to hide in your basement, the rest of the country is moving on.   The current mortality rate is pretty low to call it a mass slaughter, but hey  gotta keep that fear alive, at least until November  

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18 minutes ago, The Joker said:

You are always free to hide in your basement, the rest of the country is moving on.   The current mortality rate is pretty low to call it a mass slaughter, but hey  gotta keep that fear alive, at least until November  

You fucking joke, most of us are up and moving about.  The people who are dying are just figments of your imagination.  The scientists, the doctors and all of the other professionals form their opinions based upon their political views.

You and I, let's go free those children in the basement.  We know sex trafficking when we can't see it.

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2 minutes ago, hasher said:

You fucking joke, most of us are up and moving about.  The people who are dying are just figments of your imagination.  The scientists, the doctors and all of the other professionals form their opinions based upon their political views.

You and me, let's go free those children in the basement.  We know sex trafficking when we can't see it.

I've never stopped working sorry for your confusion.   

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Just now, The Joker said:

I've never stopped working sorry for your confusion.   

Neither have I.  Nor will I.  The courts aren't cooperating.  Will you call the little don so he can set the judges straight on who is in charge?  

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3 minutes ago, PHIRKIN said:

 

Amazing band. Love those guys

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Sub Pop signed a bunch of cool bands. WTH, another timely tune:

 

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49 minutes ago, hasher said:

You fucking joke, most of us are up and moving about.  The people who are dying are just figments of your imagination.  The scientists, the doctors and all of the other professionals form their opinions based upon their political views.

You and I, let's go free those children in the basement.  We know sex trafficking when we can't see it.

Joker is the kind of person who needs to be immediately impacted (son, mother, or wife) for him to even take notice. It's pretty much imaginary from his point of view.

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@Grrr...   

All Trump 'tards are like that.  And, in general, a lack of empathy and placement on the sociopath spectrum is a trait of conservatives. This has been shown in numerous studies and is settled science at this point. 

For example

Quote

Do liberals and conservatives differ in their empathy toward others? This question has been difficult to resolve due to methodological constraints and common use of ideologically biased targets. To more adequately address this question, we examined how much empathy liberals and conservatives want to feel, how much empathy they actually feel, and how willing they are to help others. We used targets that are equivalent in the degree to which liberals and conservatives identify with, by setting either liberals, conservatives, or ideologically neutral members as social targets. To support the generalizability of our findings, we conducted the study in the United States, Israel, and Germany. We found that, on average and across samples, liberals wanted to feel more empathy and experienced more empathy than conservatives did.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167218769867

 

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13 hours ago, Dog said:

What do sophisticated architects like you use in place of Euclidean geometry?

BTW...The trend line for deaths in Florida is either up or down depending on what you pick as a starting point.

 

4 hours ago, Dog said:

Well that's my point. The trend line is either going up or down depending on the time frame.

How about you start from 1/1/20?

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1 hour ago, The Joker said:

You are always free to hide in your basement, the rest of the country is moving on.   The current mortality rate is pretty low to call it a mass slaughter, but hey  gotta keep that fear alive, at least until November  

10% of resolved cases end in death......

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3 hours ago, The Joker said:

NY about 6% of its more than 100,000

Michigan lost 5% of roughly 38,000

New Jersey lost 12% of its more than 43,000 residents.

 

Florida, where such transfers were barred, just 1.6% of 73,000

California, after initially moving toward a policy like New York’s, quickly revised it. So far, it has lost 2% of its 103,000

So does the accounting place the nursing home residents that were sent and died in hospital in the hospital column or the nursing home column?

The details matter if any factual information is to be gleaned.

But in hindsight it does seem like a poor decision to send the infected back to nursing homes to infect the other residents.

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Arizona leading the way today with 88 fatalities, bullshitters. Don’t sweat it, the virus will go away when the temps rise. 

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I see more of an impact to the economy through the 'no shutdown, we'll just manage it' approach than the cost of being brutal early.

It's funny watching the deniers splitting hairs looking for a point score to justify their political leanings, whilst the US is pushing 25% of the worlds cases. 

Kinda like watching your boat sinking from a fucking great hole where the keel was and the crew arguing about leaving a hatch open and water is dripping on the nav table.   

  

  

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28 minutes ago, shaggybaxter said:

I see more of an impact to the economy through the 'no shutdown, we'll just manage it' approach than the cost of being brutal early.

It's funny watching the deniers splitting hairs looking for a point score to justify their political leanings, whilst the US is pushing 25% of the worlds cases. 

Kinda like watching your boat sinking from a fucking great hole where the keel was and the crew arguing about leaving a hatch open and water is dripping on the nav table.   

  

  

Short and sharp shutdown is the most effective.

Covid outbreaks will continue to paralyse individual regions for a very long time if/once it gets loose.

 

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1 hour ago, Ncik said:

So does the accounting place the nursing home residents that were sent and died in hospital in the hospital column or the nursing home column?

The details matter if any factual information is to be gleaned.

But in hindsight it does seem like a poor decision to send the infected back to nursing homes to infect the other residents.

Poor decisions made during the heat of a disaster are forgivable (except by the ideologues). 

Poor decisions made and repeated out of self-interest when time and solid information are in hand are unforgivable.  

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1 hour ago, shaggybaxter said:

I see more of an impact to the economy through the 'no shutdown, we'll just manage it' approach than the cost of being brutal early.

It's funny watching the deniers splitting hairs looking for a point score to justify their political leanings, whilst the US is pushing 25% of the worlds cases. 

Kinda like watching your boat sinking from a fucking great hole where the keel was and the crew arguing about leaving a hatch open and water is dripping on the nav table.  

  

The Trumpettes -still- haven't figured out that dead customers and workers, and panicked customers staying away, and having to rent refrigerated trucks for corpses and build tent cities in hospital parking lots, will drive the economy down much further and keep it there, than testing and isolating in an intelligent and science-based way to reduce spread of virus.

Re-opening with limited testing was always one of the stupidest things possible to choose.

- DSK

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63 more fatalities today in FL, bullshitters. 10k more cases confirmed. 
 

Could somebody call “Two Men and a Truck”? We have some goalposts that are going to need moving, and our bullshitters aren’t up to the lift. 

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42 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

63 more fatalities today in FL, bullshitters. 10k more cases confirmed. 
 

Could somebody call “Two Men and a Truck”? We have some goalposts that are going to need moving, and our bullshitters aren’t up to the lift. 

The only bull shit is coming from you.  

When N.Y. was seeing the same number of  cases they were losing 500 to 1000 per day. 

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Whoops, 64 today, Bullshitters.  We're still in case count mode here, so don't worry about moving the death count goalpost for a bit longer.  Or take the couple of weeks to set up new login names like good bullshitters. 

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12 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Whoops, 64 today, Bullshitters.  We're still in case count mode here, so don't worry about moving the death count goalpost for a bit longer.  Or take the couple of weeks to set up new login names like good bullshitters. 

They can change their names but you can spot them by the trail of stupidity they leave behind them.

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24 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Whoops, 64 today, Bullshitters.  We're still in case count mode here, so don't worry about moving the death count goalpost for a bit longer.  Or take the couple of weeks to set up new login names like good bullshitters. 

With 50,000 new cases in the US in the last 24 hours we can say that the morons like Joker and Mikey are victorious and the thing is out of control and there isn't anything that is going to stop it now.  Even with a vaccine anti-vaxxers will prevent us from wiping the disease out.  

Only thing to do is be vigilant and try to protect yourself the best you can while waiting for a vaccine. 

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On 6/30/2020 at 4:23 PM, LenP said:

That is some very backwards thinking, more than a little cult like. 

Give that man a cigar.

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1 minute ago, Clove Hitch said:

With 50,000 new cases in the US in the last 24 hours we can say that the morons like Joker and Mikey are victorious and the thing is out of control and there isn't anything that is going to stop it now.  Even with a vaccine anti-vaxxers will prevent us from wiping the disease out.  

Only thing to do is be vigilant and try to protect yourself the best you can while waiting for a vaccine. 

Best of luck to you, newly sent to the front for battle.

- DSK

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Just now, Steam Flyer said:

Best of luck to you, newly sent to the front for battle.

- DSK

Thanks!  My boss just told me I'm going to get cross trained in the ICU.  Now, I wonder why that is. . . .  .. ?

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Just now, SloopJonB said:

Give that man a cigar.

Davidoff box pressed robusto please

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27 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Whoops, 64 today, Bullshitters.  We're still in case count mode here, so don't worry about moving the death count goalpost for a bit longer.  Or take the couple of weeks to set up new login names like good bullshitters. 

If we move the goalpost to cancer and heart disease death rates that should buy them some time. Now that Covid19 has gone past gun deaths you can almost feel the collective sigh of relief.

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4 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

With 50,000 new cases in the US in the last 24 hours we can say that the morons like Joker and Mikey are victorious and the thing is out of control and there isn't anything that is going to stop it now.  Even with a vaccine anti-vaxxers will prevent us from wiping the disease out.  

Only thing to do is be vigilant and try to protect yourself the best you can while waiting for a vaccine. 

Be careful, and thanks for doing the job. Don't let the covidiots get you down, the majority of the country is deeply appreciative of our nurses and docs. The covidiots just make more noise. 

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2 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

Thanks!  My boss just told me I'm going to get cross trained in the ICU.  Now, I wonder why that is. . . .  .. ?

Just don't let them send you to that refrigerated truck in the parking lot!

- DSK

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On 7/1/2020 at 3:52 AM, Dog said:
On 6/30/2020 at 1:02 PM, Zonker said:

It's called the derivative. (Been tutoring my daughter in Gr 12 calculus and was amazed I still remembered some of it)

Ok, but they apply to mathematical curves. We don't have a formula for the death rate in Florida due to covid.

Yes but you can fit a polynomial curve to some arbritary set of data. It's an Excel function for god's sake.

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23 hours ago, shaggybaxter said:

I see more of an impact to the economy through the 'no shutdown, we'll just manage it' approach than the cost of being brutal early.

It's funny watching the deniers splitting hairs looking for a point score to justify their political leanings, whilst the US is pushing 25% of the worlds cases. 

Kinda like watching your boat sinking from a fucking great hole where the keel was and the crew arguing about leaving a hatch open and water is dripping on the nav table.  

Funny because I used that exact analogy for the AGW/CO2 panic merchants attacking Australia for our emissions while ignoring China and India.

Same mindset, different group. Kind of funny except this virus is a lot more immediate a problem.

FKT

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11 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Here you go, Bullshitters. Where the rubber meets the road. Bullshit won’t help these people. You fuckers. 
 

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/view-from-the-icu-younger-sicker-and-bracing-for-more/2257140/

 

The lack of respect for health care workers, for the population in general is without exception, disgusting.

 

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3 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

The lack of respect for health care workers, for the population in general is without exception, deplorable.

 

FTFY.

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On 7/2/2020 at 1:48 AM, LenP said:

In Florida 52% of Covid deaths were tied to LTC facilities , in NY that number is 21%. If Cuomo is to blame for the 21% in NY, who is to blame for the 52% in FL ? 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html

If you look at the actual data, it looks much different than the spin from RW media. 

 

How is that different from any other topic?

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On 7/1/2020 at 6:00 PM, The Joker said:

There is no metric that shows Florida is going to be anywhere near the disaster that New York's suffered.

Might be a bit early to call that one.

They don't have our subways & such, but... they're older, fatter, and generally less healthy. 

Might well end up getting hit worse than we did.

15 hours ago, The Joker said:

When N.Y. was seeing the same number of  cases they were losing 500 to 1000 per day. 

And it only took us three weeks to go from 50-60 a day, to 500-1000.    

And we were shut down, completely, through those weeks.  Just about everybody was staying home.  Judging from traffic cams... our rush hour traffic, at 6pm, looked like Miami does right now, at 4:40 am.

  

 

 

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13 hours ago, Zonker said:

Yes but you can fit a polynomial curve to some arbritary set of data. It's an Excel function for god's sake.

And what does it tell you about the next data point or the trend?...nothing

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Another 66 dropped by the virus in FL today, bullshitters. New case confirmations dropped below 10k today, so maybe that’s a good place for you to move the goalposts. (9500). 

Whoops. Record hospitalizations, deaths up by the most in a month. Spin it up Bullshitters.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-02/florida-virus-cases-hospitalizations-rise-most-ever-deaths-up

 

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6 hours ago, Dog said:
20 hours ago, Zonker said:

Yes but you can fit a polynomial curve to some arbritary set of data. It's an Excel function for god's sake.

And what does it tell you about the next data point or the trend?...nothing

We already knew math was not Dog's strong point.

Confirmed

But insisting that just because -you- don't know something, that nobody else does or that it can't be known at all.... well, let's just say that peasants live in a world of mystery and mumbo-jumbo. Because science and math is just beyond them, it makes them feel good to deny there is such a thing.

- DSK

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46 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

We already knew math was not Dog's strong point.

Confirmed

But insisting that just because -you- don't know something, that nobody else does or that it can't be known at all.... well, let's just say that peasants live in a world of mystery and mumbo-jumbo. Because science and math is just beyond them, it makes them feel good to deny there is such a thing.

- DSK

I know the death rate in Florida does not conform to any known mathematical function.

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7 minutes ago, Dog said:

I know the death rate in Florida does not conform to any known mathematical function.

Yeah?

Does it just jump around, totally at random... one day a new record high, then next day meh? Highs, lows, all over the map, no way to guess? Or does it actually accelerate and decelerate?

When you're a fucking peasant, everything seems mysterious and random. Disease, weather, health of livestock... that's why peasants fall back on mumbo-jumbo and a sense of fatalism. Anybody who tries to sell you that attitude is making you into a peasant. It seems to have worked on you, and on an unfortunate number of USAneans.

- DSK

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4 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Yeah?

Does it just jump around, totally at random... one day a new record high, then next day meh? Highs, lows, all over the map, no way to guess? Or does it actually accelerate and decelerate?

When you're a fucking peasant, everything seems mysterious and random. Disease, weather, health of livestock... that's why peasants fall back on mumbo-jumbo and a sense of fatalism. Anybody who tries to sell you that attitude is making you into a peasant. It seems to have worked on you, and on an unfortunate number of USAneans.

- DSK

What's the instantaneous slope now and what does it mean to you?

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32 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:
43 minutes ago, Dog said:

I know the death rate in Florida does not conform to any known mathematical function.

Yeah?

Does it just jump around, totally at random... one day a new record high, then next day meh? Highs, lows, all over the map, no way to guess? Or does it actually accelerate and decelerate?

When you're a fucking peasant, everything seems mysterious and random. Disease, weather, health of livestock... that's why peasants fall back on mumbo-jumbo and a sense of fatalism. Anybody who tries to sell you that attitude is making you into a peasant. It seems to have worked on you, and on an unfortunate number of USAneans.

- DSK

I know The Mutt's brain does not conform to any known function.

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3 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

:lol: this troll claims to be an architect :lol:

 

image.png.2c628481b3aa9e9f87ca72aa5e2053d1.png

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1 hour ago, Dog said:

What's the instantaneous slope now and what does it mean to you?

"Instantaneous slope" is not a math term I know, nor (I suspect) is it one that you know, but you seem to be looking for the slope of a function at a defined point in time.

The rate of increase in new cases? The state of Florida is trying to conceal that information. Why do you suppose that is?

My own opinion is that the combination of incomplete data, time delay in reporting, and the whackadoodle random inputs from crazy fuck heads, mean that comparison of relative areas is the better metric; and I think a rolling average is more useful to see whether the spread is increasing or decreasing.

Pretty obvious, even with all the above obfuscations, that the rate of spread is increasing. It's possible that it will accelerate yet more. It definitely will if people continue to make it a political issue instead of a health issue, if people continue to act with impatience and selfishness instead of forethought and care.

My community's Facebook page just had long rants this morning from people defending their "personal freedom of choice" to not wear a mask. They are totally missing the point that they're being obnoxious jerks and they defy the fact that they are exposing other people to risk. Next, they'll complain that they're being ostracised and people reacting to them as if they're obnoxious jerks.

The good news is that over the past two weeks, they've stopped invoking Trump in their rants, so maybe the idea that he's not really a good President after all is sinking into their heads.

- DSK

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5 hours ago, Dog said:

What's the instantaneous slope now and what does it mean to you?

The slope of an instant in time is called a point.   

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17 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

"Instantaneous slope" is not a math term I know, nor (I suspect) is it one that you know, but you seem to be looking for the slope of a function at a defined point in time.

The rate of increase in new cases? The state of Florida is trying to conceal that information. Why do you suppose that is?

My own opinion is that the combination of incomplete data, time delay in reporting, and the whackadoodle random inputs from crazy fuck heads, mean that comparison of relative areas is the better metric; and I think a rolling average is more useful to see whether the spread is increasing or decreasing.

Pretty obvious, even with all the above obfuscations, that the rate of spread is increasing. It's possible that it will accelerate yet more. It definitely will if people continue to make it a political issue instead of a health issue, if people continue to act with impatience and selfishness instead of forethought and care.

My community's Facebook page just had long rants this morning from people defending their "personal freedom of choice" to not wear a mask. They are totally missing the point that they're being obnoxious jerks and they defy the fact that they are exposing other people to risk. Next, they'll complain that they're being ostracised and people reacting to them as if they're obnoxious jerks.

The good news is that over the past two weeks, they've stopped invoking Trump in their rants, so maybe the idea that he's not really a good President after all is sinking into their heads.

- DSK

 

“Instantaneous slope” is a term used in calculus and applies to mathematical curves. Basically its a tangent at a specific point. It was introduced to this discussion in post 19. You might be able to apply it to the death rate in Florida if you could devise an equation to describe the death rate, but you can't.

If you think “instantaneous slope” does not belong in this discussion you would be agreeing with me which I know you don't want to do.

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Cases up ....hospitalization  and deaths dramatically down!!! ... per positive test... best case scenario!

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34 minutes ago, Dog said:

 

“Instantaneous slope” is a term used in calculus and applies to mathematical curves. Basically its a tangent at a specific point. It was introduced to this discussion in post 19. You might be able to apply it to the death rate in Florida if you could devise an equation to describe the death rate, but you can't.

If you think “instantaneous slope” does not belong in this discussion you would be agreeing with me which I know you don't want to do.

It's a term I have never heard before, nor is it in any of my textbooks.

That's OK, different terms are used a lot. They have to be defined to be useful.

Declaring that your ignorance is better than somebody else's knowledge is really the highest ideal of Trumpism, ain't it?

An equation to describe the death rate would be complex and not particularly useful. Believing that one cannot exist is stupid as shit. Like a peasant.

Generally, dynamic and complex interactions like this are "modelled" which means a nested group of multivariate equations. Models are extremely useful, once accurate real-world data is use to build it accurately. Wishful thinking and lies are never useful in anything but convincing peasants

- DSK

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7 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

It's a term I have never heard before, nor is it in any of my textbooks.

That's OK, different terms are used a lot. They have to be defined to be useful.

Declaring that your ignorance is better than somebody else's knowledge is really the highest ideal of Trumpism, ain't it?

An equation to describe the death rate would be complex and not particularly useful. Believing that one cannot exist is stupid as shit. Like a peasant.

Generally, dynamic and complex interactions like this are "modelled" which means a nested group of multivariate equations. Models are extremely useful, once accurate real-world data is use to build it accurately. Wishful thinking and lies are never useful in anything but convincing peasants

- DSK

Liberalism is asymptote to truth 

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7 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

It's a term I have never heard before, nor is it in any of my textbooks.

That's OK, different terms are used a lot. They have to be defined to be useful.

Declaring that your ignorance is better than somebody else's knowledge is really the highest ideal of Trumpism, ain't it?

An equation to describe the death rate would be complex and not particularly useful. Believing that one cannot exist is stupid as shit. Like a peasant. I didn't say it couldn't exist, did I?. But it would take a Hari Seldon to do it.

Generally, dynamic and complex interactions like this are "modelled" which means a nested group of multivariate equations. Models are extremely useful, once accurate real-world data is use to build it accurately. Wishful thinking and lies are never useful in anything but convincing peasants

- DSK

 

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2 hours ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Ididn't say it couldn't exist, did I?. But it would take a Hari Seldon to do i

Sodomize yourself with a sparkler Fido, yer a fucking idiot when it comes to math. And now your climate dumbfuckery makes perfect sense.

Bla bla bla

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13 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

It's a term I have never heard before, nor is it in any of my textbooks.

That's OK, different terms are used a lot. They have to be defined to be useful.

Declaring that your ignorance is better than somebody else's knowledge is really the highest ideal of Trumpism, ain't it?

An equation to describe the death rate would be complex and not particularly useful. Believing that one cannot exist is stupid as shit. Like a peasant.

Generally, dynamic and complex interactions like this are "modelled" which means a nested group of multivariate equations. Models are extremely useful, once accurate real-world data is use to build it accurately. Wishful thinking and lies are never useful in anything but convincing peasants

- DSK

would Instantaneous slope be the same as an inflexion point?

 

never mind :D

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3 hours ago, Dog said:

Bla bla bla

Its still spelled “blah”

Bad Dog!
 

 

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I bet dog thinks it is merely coincidence that I was able to peg to the day when deaths in Florida would begin trending upward based on New infections.

It's even more accurate to use hospitalizations, but Florida is fucking with the data pretty badly.

And contrary to what dog says, statistical models can absolutely use multi variable regression to statistically predict some of the behavior of this virus.  Unfortunately it is complicated by data collection noise and other issues.

Of course, these are only models, just like weather predicting.

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4 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

would Instantaneous slope be the same as an inflexion point?

 

never mind :D

Inflection point?

No, different things. The instantaneous rate of change (or the slope at a tangent to the curve) is the derivative of any point on the curve at any point. An inflection point is a pole, or a point on the curve where the function changes direction.

When a change in a function is divided by zero, and can't be integrated, a residue isolates the points and the integral essentially moves around it.

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4 hours ago, Grrr... said:

I bet dog thinks it is merely coincidence that I was able to peg to the day when deaths in Florida would begin trending upward based on New infections.

It's even more accurate to use hospitalizations, but Florida is fucking with the data pretty badly.

And contrary to what dog says, statistical models can absolutely use multi variable regression to statistically predict some of the behavior of this virus.  Unfortunately it is complicated by data collection noise and other issues.

Of course, these are only models, just like weather predicting.

I still don't understand how Florida is managing to falsify death certificates now that they have been caught, but aside form that, the latest from Florida is decreasing deaths, down to 18 per day as of yesterday, with a normal death load of a few hundred from the normal causes ...

1164949950_ScreenShot2020-07-05at1_50_52AM.png.05cce672e031dc5efa61209f6e648068.png

The USA shows roughly the same decreasing trend it has shown for the last several weeks ...

684739855_ScreenShot2020-07-05at1_58_42AM.png.ee511e208a488c2f1cb3f1741c2025d8.png

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

I still don't understand how Florida is managing to falsify death certificates

There is so much that you do not understand.  Every post it shows.

source.gif

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Just now, Dog said:

Bullshit...Whether Florida Covid deaths ate trending up or down depends on your start date.

The deaths per case is dramatically down!... as well as hospitalization 

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10 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

would Instantaneous slope be the same as an inflexion point?

 

never mind :D

Not really. If I'm understanding it correctly, any point on the graph of a function will have an "instantaneous slope" which is whether it's going up or down, and how much. But it will only be an inflexion point if the slope makes a comparatively large change at that point.

{edit to add}

2 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Inflection point occurs where the slope changes sign.

Good question though... and adding thanks to C20

- DSK

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9 hours ago, Grrr... said:

I bet dog thinks it is merely coincidence that I was able to peg to the day when deaths in Florida would begin trending upward based on New infections.

It's even more accurate to use hospitalizations, but Florida is fucking with the data pretty badly.

And contrary to what dog says, statistical models can absolutely use multi variable regression to statistically predict some of the behavior of this virus.  Unfortunately it is complicated by data collection noise and other issues.

Of course, these are only models, just like weather predicting.

How many covid deaths will we see in Florida tomorrow genius?

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13 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

But it will only be an inflexion point if the slope makes a comparatively large change at that point.

Inflection point occurs where the slope changes sign.  

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14 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Inflection point occurs where the slope changes sign.  

Vanishing point

Screenshot (133).png

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1 hour ago, Dog said:

How many covid deaths will we see in Florida tomorrow genius?

Take the number of folks in hospital

Apply percentage

and lower it as Sunday is a slow reporting day

 

Will it rain in miami?

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3 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

When the 2nd derivative = zero.

In most cases true, but what about a horizontal line?  Aren't the first and second derivates zero at each point on that line yet I sure wouldn't see anything I would call an inflection point.  

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8 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Almost as deadly as the Ebola pandemic. 

I’ll take the China virus over “almost “

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On 7/5/2020 at 3:56 AM, mikewof said:

I still don't understand how Florida is managing to falsify death certificates now that they have been caught, but aside form that, the latest from Florida is decreasing deaths, down to 18 per day as of yesterday, with a normal death load of a few hundred from the normal causes ...

1164949950_ScreenShot2020-07-05at1_50_52AM.png.05cce672e031dc5efa61209f6e648068.png

The USA shows roughly the same decreasing trend it has shown for the last several weeks ...

684739855_ScreenShot2020-07-05at1_58_42AM.png.ee511e208a488c2f1cb3f1741c2025d8.png

You are not a scientist.  And this post proves it.  You just attempted to take a single data point and conclude it was a trend that proves deaths are decreasing.  You completely ignored the weekly cycle of deaths.  You are a liar, and a denier, and a dangerous one at that.  Here's the trendline since Jun 7 in Florida.  Spin it you tedious bullshitter.

image.png.551b772ecb8d75dfc20c3ef200d9460c.png

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On 7/5/2020 at 9:00 AM, Dog said:

How many covid deaths will we see in Florida tomorrow genius?

You're asking me to be clairvoyant?  That's pretty pathetic.  Even for you.  However, here's the CDC predictions including all the models of from different hospitals.  And, holy shit.... It shows an increase in the death rate in Florida.  In nearly every model.

image.thumb.png.4699ea5c257ec0fd8e547c1b6b78e76c.png

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/pdf/Consolidated-Forecasts-2020-06-29.pdf

Those are cumulative death rates, so when you see them curving upward, that means the rate is increasing.  A flat line would be a constant rate.  Don't worry dog, we'll explain it to you more if needed.

And those are actual people.  Mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers.  Not some made up numbers for you to lie about for political purposes.

 

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