Bristol-Cruiser

CANADA-US COVID difference

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This is an interesting CNN posting about the difference in COVID between the US and Canada. We are expecting our new case count to drop below 200 per day pretty soon (n Friday it was 219). Even with the low numbers we are still taking things seriously. I live in a suburb outside Toronto with a population of 650,000 and only seven new cases on Monday and yet mask use inside any space open to the public will become mandatory on Friday - until now it has only been strongly recommended. The key points are it has not been looked at politically here and our free (it is not free of course, but we can afford it in our taxes) healthcare system. Even now in the US it seems to be a total patchwork of things happening.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/07/03/canada-flattens-coronavirus-curve-newton-newday-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/coronavirus/

 

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After a late start, we had a pretty good state-county level response up until April - then idiots on twitter at night got into some orange baby’s head and he undermined everything by saying something to the point of retaking back your lives and go back outside as if it is all normal. 
 

the rest of history. 

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I think there are a number of factors at play here that may include:

  • Philosophical views on the role of government (Canadians generally look to the government to solve problems and believe it can solve problems)
  • A national broadcaster (radio, TV and internet) that generally provides factual and respected news across the country
  • Involvement of public health professionals in developing and implementing measures
  • Generally co-ordinated efforts across all levels of government and across the country
  • A populace that generally trusts the government and follows government directives
  • A wage subsidy program that is extensive in its scope (paying people to stay home)

Feel free to add to this list.

In combination, this has resulted in the impact of COVID-19 in Canada being much less (per capita, perhaps one-tenth?) that of the US.  

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27 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

Feel free to add to this list.

And your M4A is a biggie too obviously, even though the system is administered at the provincial level. 

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49 minutes ago, AJ Oliver said:

And your M4A is a biggie too obviously, even though the system is administered at the provincial level. 

It is administered provincially but basic standards are set by the feds but a province can do more. Also most of the money comes from the feds.

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Canada really needs to build a wall, and dupe Trump to pay for it. 

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6 hours ago, Varan said:

Canada really needs to build a wall, and dupe Trump to pay for it. 

You hadn't heard? It is going to be a hedge and parts were planted in the spring with the rest coming this fall. Still working on Donald paying for it. We have him convinced it was his idea. Now pushing how it will help with the re-election.

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9 hours ago, Varan said:

Canada really needs to build a wall, and dupe Trump to pay for it. 

Easier to just keep the border closed, its working great, except for the odd American that says their "going to Alaska".

Canadians recommend you take your ferry from Bellingham. ;)

Thank you.

 

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The comments on the CBC news web site were almost 100% mocking her. Usually there is a "healthy discourse" in some of the comment sections like these but not in this case. 

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13 hours ago, Varan said:

Canada really needs to build a wall, and dupe Trump to pay for it. 

Ahhh...but we already have one you see.

 

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4 hours ago, Zonker said:

The comments on the CBC news web site were almost 100% mocking her. Usually there is a "healthy discourse" in some of the comment sections like these but not in this case. 

Without reading them I am assuming they are Kanadian Karen Komments? por k?

edit: was going for alliterative not the KKK thing. Please put the pitchforks down. thanks.

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4 hours ago, Keith said:

Unfortunately we do have a loonie in Toronto. Must be an eastern Canada thing.

https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/viral-video-woman-refuses-to-wear-mask-at-toronto-hospital

 

This "truther" (wingnut) Letitia Montana also joined a group without masks riding the subway to protest.

She compared the municipal bylaw to the worst authoritarianism of the 20th century.

I’m sure the next edition of the Anne Frank’s The Diary of a Young Girl, will include an annotation as to how lucky Anne was to not have to have ridden public transit in Toronto while wearing a mask.

 

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I think in Canada we believe (generally) that government is on our side, and the message to wear masks was promulgated by health officials not politicians, who generally took a step back. 

 

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1 hour ago, Zonker said:

I think in Canada we believe (generally) that government is on our side, and the message to wear masks was promulgated by health officials not politicians, who generally took a step back. 

 

Especially here in BC.  I have to say I think Premier Horgan has handled the whole situation very well in nearly every regard - allowing Dr. Bonnie Henry to become the face of the response and the people have responded to her message very well. So again my kudos to Mike Horgan, and I didn't even vote for him.

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Even more impressive is the good job done by Doug Ford in Ontario considering that almost everything he did pre-COVID was poorly done. Immediately before the outbreak his biggest problem was changing to new license plates in Tory blue. Problem was you couldn't see the number at night.

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50 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

Even more impressive is the good job done by Doug Ford in Ontario considering that almost everything he did pre-COVID was poorly done. Immediately before the outbreak his biggest problem was changing to new license plates in Tory blue. Problem was you couldn't see the number at night.

Are you sure about that?  Depends on how you look at it I suppose...but

Results wise so far, per capita Ontario has 4x the number of COVID 19 cases and 5x the number of deaths as BC.  What makes the contrast even more outstanding was that up until March 21 or so, BC actually had more of both than Ontario.  After that Ontario numbers rocketed past BCs.

Although I will admit Doug Ford has done a much better job than a certain orange political leader.

Heck, I even got Horgans first name wrong.  it's John not Mike.  Which shows how little a fan I am of the NDP in general. 

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17 hours ago, Varan said:

Canada really needs to build a wall, and dupe Trump to pay for it. 

We've been waiting for the cheque since 11/16

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1 hour ago, 12 metre said:

Especially here in BC.  I have to say I think Premier Horgan has handled the whole situation very well in nearly every regard - allowing Dr. Bonnie Henry to become the face of the response and the people have responded to her message very well. So again my kudos to Mike Horgan, and I didn't even vote for him.

I haven't voted for them since Barrett but I probably will next time - I don't see how they could have done better with this mess. Carole James has been doing surprisingly well with the money.

Keeping Doc. Bonnie from the previous admin. and letting her run with the ball was a stroke of brilliance.

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36 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

I haven't voted for them since Barrett but I probably will next time - I don't see how they could have done better with this mess. Carole James has been doing surprisingly well with the money.

Keeping Doc. Bonnie from the previous admin. and letting her run with the ball was a stroke of brilliance.

Yeah, I never thought I would say this but i would strongly consider voting for Horgan next time - and not just on recent events.  I have been quite pleased with the overall performance of the NDP so far.

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2 hours ago, 12 metre said:

Are you sure about that?  Depends on how you look at it I suppose...but

Results wise so far, per capita Ontario has 4x the number of COVID 19 cases and 5x the number of deaths as BC.  What makes the contrast even more outstanding was that up until March 21 or so, BC actually had more of both than Ontario.  After that Ontario numbers rocketed past BCs.

Although I will admit Doug Ford has done a much better job than a certain orange political leader.

Heck, I even got Horgans first name wrong.  it's John not Mike.  Which shows how little a fan I am of the NDP in general. 

Population difference is 3x so there is a difference but it is not immense. The critical flaws in our LTC centres verges on the criminal especially since the chairman of the largest company in the business was the Ontario premier when rules were changed to make privatization easier. We can learn a lot from Oz about this and I suspect major changes are coming.

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Today's numbers - Canada 232 new cases; USA 55,000. The US still does not have its act together in terms of there being a coherent approach, e.g. while the sciency guys are saying how bad things are, Trump and his minions are pushing for conventional school reopening in August. Very sad to see.

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4 hours ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

Today's numbers - Canada 232 new cases; USA 55,000. The US still does not have its act together in terms of there being a coherent approach, e.g. while the sciency guys are saying how bad things are, Trump and his minions are pushing for conventional school reopening in August. Very sad to see.

It's lunacy below the border. I think we may need a taller hedge. Maybe roses.

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How about the Himalayan blackberry? Nobody wants to go through that. 

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6 hours ago, Ishmael said:

It's lunacy below the border. I think we may need a taller hedge. Maybe roses.

Only if we get rose varieties with particularly nasty thorns.

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17 hours ago, 12 metre said:

Are you sure about that?  Depends on how you look at it I suppose...but

Results wise so far, per capita Ontario has 4x the number of COVID 19 cases and 5x the number of deaths as BC.  What makes the contrast even more outstanding was that up until March 21 or so, BC actually had more of both than Ontario.  After that Ontario numbers rocketed past BCs.

Although I will admit Doug Ford has done a much better job than a certain orange political leader.

Heck, I even got Horgans first name wrong.  it's John not Mike.  Which shows how little a fan I am of the NDP in general. 

Ontario blue plates
Premier Doug Ford says he's scrapping a redesign of Ontario's licence plates, returning to the old, white-and-blue “Yours to Discover” version. New blue licence plates that the Progressive Conservative government rolled out this year using a slogan of “A Place to Grow” proved difficult to read in the dark.May 6, 2020

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The thing with Doug Ford is that we all had the bar set so low that when he did what any half intelligent person would do it looked like he cleared it by miles(or kilometres). Most of us really expected him to take a page out of Trumps book. He went from an approval rating of around 12% to I think currently around 87%. Never thought I'd say this but if he applies some of these principals to education and health care I may actually vote for him next time.

Don't tell Trump, but if he followed Fords example, did a complete 180 (never admit a mistake of course), he'd likely win in November.

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20200708_113655.jpg.552a7afd044e6bf9cf00876a51aae944.jpg

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54 minutes ago, inneedofadvice said:

 

Don't tell Trump, but if he followed Fords example, did a complete 180 (never admit a mistake of course), he'd likely win in November.

That's the only real benefit of all these tell-alls and lincoln project ads: Keep his ego as injured as possible to insure he won't admit anything or backtrack for another 120 days.  .

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21 minutes ago, RogerWilco said:

This is comparing apples to oranges.  Data on new cases mean nothing, because there are so many factors that influence new cases and how they are counted.  Let's look at static data. 

Canada's death rate to their population is .00416%
US' death rate to their population is .00403%

Canada has 8,740 deaths but only 100k confirmed cases.  How can that be? COVID 19 has a 0.6%-0.8% mortality rate, not 8.74%.  This data suggests that Canada's Covid cases are closer to 1 million than 100k.

Canada is the same size as the US but has the population of California Florida, yet it has nearly three times as many deaths than Florida. How can that be if Canada only has 100k cases and Florida has 220k cases? 

US is doing much more testing than Canada and also counts Covid cases differently.  In the US a positive case is counted as that person's entire household.  Hospitals move patients around to count them as a new case ($$$), which in turn counts their entire household as new cases.

FIFY

Not quite double Florida's population, but 75% greater.

And then we have the Province of Quebec (who like to think they are not part of Canada) which has been hit far harder than the rest of the country.

Out here in BC, the population is only 5M so slightly more than NZ but to date we've had <3,000 cases and 183 deaths mainly residents of long term care homes.  Not quite NZ numbers but we have a lot of inherent disadvantages - being adjacent to WA state with a border that's only closed to non-essential travel being one of them.  Apparently most of our cases are shown to have the Washington State strain of the virus.

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1 hour ago, RogerWilco said:

Blah blah blah

That which is presented without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.  Your data is wrong.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=can&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=1&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=cases

 

Feel free to check my math, but I calculated, PER CAPITA:

* the US has 1.6 times as many deaths as Canada

* the US has 3.2 times as many cases as Canada

For some reason you want to compare mortality rates.  What is the meaning of that measure?  

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22 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

That which is presented without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.  Your data is wrong.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=can&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=1&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=cases

 

Feel free to check my math, but I calculated, PER CAPITA:

* the US has 1.6 times as many deaths as Canada

* the US has 3.2 times as many cases as Canada

For some reason you want to compare mortality rates.  What is the meaning of that measure?  

True, but even in Canada there are glaring differences as I mentioned in an earlier post here, so it's not just a Canada/US thing:

PER CAPITA:

*Ontario has 5 times as many deaths as BC

*Ontario has 4 times as many cases as BC

And I won't even get into the Quebec numbers which are off the charts even compared to the US

So many things at play here I believe.  Population density is one of them.  Cultural and Socio/Economic factors as well.  The list I'm sure goes on

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1 hour ago, 12 metre said:

 

And I won't even get into the Quebec numbers which are off the charts even compared to the US

So many things at play here I believe.  Population density is one of them.  Cultural and Socio/Economic factors as well.  The list I'm sure goes on

Quebec numbers are very high by Canadian standards but hardly off the charts compared to the US. Quebec and Tennessee both have about 56,000 cases. Quebec has about 20% more people. On a per capita basis, Tennessee is ranked 21st in the US.

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44 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

Quebec numbers are very high by Canadian standards but hardly off the charts compared to the US. Quebec and Tennessee both have about 56,000 cases. Quebec has about 20% more people. On a per capita basis, Tennessee is ranked 21st in the US.

Again depends on what numbers you are comparing.

In terms of deaths per thousand (a commonly used statistic I believe),

At last count Quebec has 8,733 COVID related deaths in a population of 8.5M.  So 1.0 per thousand

Similarly the US has about 134,000 deaths in a population of 328M, or 0.4 per thousand. 

Using deaths per thousand, Quebec's rate so far is 2.5x higher than the US as a whole.

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It does depend on which numbers you use obviously. I think it is not fair to compare one province/state to a country. You really need to compare similar entities.

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somebody missing a sock ?

image.png.2970643095339970b891f0d338919e61.png

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13 minutes ago, RogerWilco said:

That is false information. 

Canada has more deaths per capita than the U.S. (just slightly)

The  news only wants to talk about new cases, not how those new cases were tallied, or hard data to show the whole picture. 

The U.S. is doing more testing, so more positive results will be uncovered.  On top of that the U.S. data, one positive result equates to ~2.65 positive results on the books, because they assume that person's whole household has Covid.  Canada counts them one-for-one. 

Where are you getting your data?

Worldmeter puts the use deaths per million at 408 compared to Canada's 231.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

You clearly don't understand test positivity rate.

I have yet to see a credible cite for your claim that the CDC is counting multiple people as positive for each positive test.  (Last week the claim we heard was that people were getting re-tested a bunch and that that was pushing up the positives).

 

 

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45 minutes ago, RogerWilco said:

And quote a news site that does't reference its source of data. 

Not true.  FT is very clear about their sources of information. 

There is no point in discussing anything with you.  Please go away.  

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1 hour ago, RogerWilco said:

That is false information. 

Canada has more deaths per capita than the U.S. (just slightly)

The  news only wants to talk about new cases, not how those new cases were tallied, or hard data to show the whole picture. 

The U.S. is doing more testing, so more positive results will be uncovered.  On top of that the U.S. data, one positive result equates to ~2.65 positive results on the books, because they assume that person's whole household has Covid.  Canada counts them one-for-one. 

All the stats trackers show Canada with significantly lower death per capita.

One example of many - https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

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4 hours ago, Keith said:

somebody missing a sock ?

image.png.2970643095339970b891f0d338919e61.png

Every sailor knows the green heeled bert sock goes on the right foot while red nosed ernie sock goes on the left foot. Gosh.

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On 7/6/2020 at 4:04 PM, Bugsy said:

I think there are a number of factors at play here that may include:

  • Philosophical views on the role of government (Canadians generally look to the government to solve problems and believe it can solve problems)
  • A national broadcaster (radio, TV and internet) that generally provides factual and respected news across the country
  • Involvement of public health professionals in developing and implementing measures
  • Generally co-ordinated efforts across all levels of government and across the country
  • A populace that generally trusts the government and follows government directives
  • A wage subsidy program that is extensive in its scope (paying people to stay home)

Feel free to add to this list.

In combination, this has resulted in the impact of COVID-19 in Canada being much less (per capita, perhaps one-tenth?) that of the US.  

I’ll add to the list.

A political landscape that allows for more than 2 parties and even a minority government.

The bygone term used to be ‘parliamentary spirit’. It has now given way to ‘our friends across the aisle’ or something. It is the notion that adversaries from different parties must find common ground on the Parliament floor in order to enact laws and policies.

Our current government, a minority Liberal one, saw the deputy PM becoming buddies with the Ontario Premiere, a conservative, during a lot of the early COVID media coverage. It displayed a non partisan approach to the crisis in sharp contrast to the politicization and Balkanization of the crisis south of the border.

New Zealand has been noted by some commentators in a similar way. After electoral reform in the 90s, they have not had a majority government since 94. The theory is that a minority government must rule by consensus, so with practice, it becomes more efficient at finding it. Having all parties on board to deliver a clear message right off the bat helped them get ahead of the crisis, and this, albeit in a lesser way going by the numbers, has probably helped Canada, so far.

 

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On 7/7/2020 at 12:13 PM, Zonker said:

I think in Canada we believe (generally) that government is on our side, and the message to wear masks was promulgated by health officials not politicians, who generally took a step back. 

 

I agree with this. I had the somewhat unique experience of being an American in Canada during the pandemic. I got to Vancouver on March 8. There was almost complete compliance with the recommendations from the government. I had to explain, often, to Canadians that Americans generally do not trust our government. For example, see our Surgeon General tweeting "Seriously people, stop buying masks". Telling everyone they don't work. Later, everyone is surprised that people don't want to wear them. 

The alphabet soup of "agencies" are not trusted. ATF, FBI, NSA, CDC, etc. Canadians are encouraged to watch the Netflix documentary on Waco to see why. 

I got back to San Diego on June 2 or so. Terrifying. Like a jailbreak here. I've been mocked for wearing a bandana. Had people try to invite me to a party where build your own tacos are being served. Crazy.

I'm proud to be an American, but push to shove, I feel way safer in Kits. The border is closed to me now. #CanadaProud. Well done up there. Look forward to being allowed to return. 

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From the Toronto Star today. Pretty much how most Canadians are seeing it.

image.png.91d7fdab36827cd84723e367a0903ff0.png

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2 hours ago, 167149 said:

if you really want to be obsessed about numbers and statistics then perhaps you'd best consider this... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&amp;objectid=12347304

I stand to be corrected, but as far as a more virulent mutated coronavirus strain goes, I believe that is old news disguised as new news.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-05/chinese-scientists-say-second-coronavirus-strain-more-dangerous

Unless you were talking about the video rather than the included news item - but I've come to tuning out pretty much anything the mandarins of the WHO have to say these days.

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On 7/9/2020 at 11:39 AM, RogerWilco said:

  On top of that the U.S. data, one positive result equates to ~2.65 positive results on the books, because they assume that person's whole household has Covid.  Canada counts them one-for-one. 

Roger. That is not correct.

Each state reports its own numbers and there are differences but I am not aware of a state that attributes cases to households. 

In some states, due to testing shortages, state testing is limited to one test per household. If the test is positive, the whole household is asked to quarantine. If the test is negative , other household members cannot be tested for a period unless they display symptoms. Again, this is a few states, not all of them.

The various testing regimes make it quite difficult to use cases per 1,000 to compare between countries . There are two key items that can be looked at when comparing :

1. Shape of the curve.  The absolute numbers are difficult to compare but it is quite clear that the US is experiencing a 2nd surge which other parts of the world have avoided thus far.

2. The number of hospitalizations .  Current CV19 hospitalizations (not cumulative) per population tell you where a state really is in terms of the pandemic.

 

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Apparently tests are not in short supply in Ontario. My one year old grandson had a low-grade fever and slightly swollen lymph nodes. Mom wanted to take him to the doctor but the doctor said he would have to get COVID tested before the appointment which isn't great when you want a diagnosis. She took him to the ER where they did a COVID test and then decided that his current illness is nothing significant. If his COVID test is positive (24 hour turnaround), which the doctor thinks highly unlikely then the rest of the family including my wife who has been babysitting while parents work from home will have to be tested. All free of course. Ontario had 111 new cases today for 14 million people - pretty good progress. Almost 100 of the cases were people under 60. Much of the province, not including the Toronto area have moved to Stage 3 of reopening.

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The Canadian response has not been above reproach to be clear. Our federal government really dropped the ball on curtailing inbound traffic for quite some time and even as that was unfolding they alleged that they were doing serious screening at airports and making strong recommendations about self isolation upon entry to Canada. The truth was the airport screening was non-existent and took almost a month before it developed any teeth because the government ideologically felt that calling out certain travelers would be racist so they were rather slow off the mark on that whole scene.

Quebec screwed up by essentially telling its population that going away for March break would not be a big deal, their March break was a week before Anglo-Canada and unfortunately it meant importation of thousands of cases which pushed them quickly into the lead. Ontario being just a week behind on the annual flight to sunnier climes had a huge swath of people cancel their March break which spared them the magnitude of that particular misstep.

Ontario however being an extremely multicultural province, much like New York City, managed to import many cases from abroad, East, West and South before everyone sat up and really paid attention to counter measures. Also in Ontario with the nature of long term care homes workers frequently work 2-3 different locations and those workers who did not have good guidance on PPE quickly became vectors between rooms and then different facilities leading to above average infections and morbidities in those types of facilities. 

Returning snowbirds were no doubt an issue that got the ball rolling at the outset of the virus but was particularly cruel to Quebec in that regard, again bringing back a fair bit from abroad.

The Federal authorities didn't do their credibility any favors walking lockstep with China and the WHO on various issues such as "Masks do more harm then good and travel bans are racists and will stigmatize some voting blocks" at the outset of the virus in March. It took the Liberal government about 6 weeks to finally climb down off that particular stupid wagon and begin to set their own course for our collective benefit.

Aside from public medicine Canadians general peevishness and self righteousness served them well as many Canadians love nothing more than to wag a finger at a rule breaker so there was a lot of self censoring kind of thing happening keeping people locked up in their homes. As a point of National pride we also love nothing better than to pat ourselves on the back and tell ourselves how much better and more orderly we are than the neighbors to the South. Accordingly everyone got with the program if only to be smug and superior. it's an annoying Canadian trait that happened to serve us well. Combined with First Winter, False Spring and second winter generally nobody much wanted to go out and about anyhow so it also helped keep everyone indoors.

Quite quickly the prevelance of virus self sorted so the well to do were quickly free of it and safe and those lower on the end of the class ladder ended up bearing the brunt due to general living and working conditions which is still the case today. Currently in Ontario we do about 20,000 tests a day, if they can find sufficient victims for a nose ramming.

The first proper sunny Spring day in Toronto saw thousands of young people pile into a downtown Toronto park to socialize causing uproar and self-righteous hysteria. Two weeks later the BLM protests blew up and the same hysterical people fell strangely silent about social distancing and masks. At that point everyone pretty much recalibrated on hard core social distancing so as not to be total hypocrites as everyone wanted to hug their granny by then and enjoy some sun. Things are heading back to normal in slow stages but with healthy doses of caution.

Having racked up a decade worth of  debt in four months I'd be excited for PM socks to reconvene Parliament and stop hiding out in his cottage so he could practice some actual accountable governance for the benefit of all citizens.

Currently something like 60-70% of all Canadians think it's a bad idea to open our Southern Border. New York State and Michigan hardly had stellar performances in the first few months of the whole show, it stands to reason we be a bit guarded with our hard fought gains in the battle.

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You might want to consider how much the government is paying interest on their debt. Interest rates are at historically low values so huge debt is not as scary as 5 years ago. 

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On 7/15/2020 at 5:27 PM, Zonker said:

You might want to consider how much the government is paying interest on their debt. Interest rates are at historically low values so huge debt is not as scary as 5 years ago. 

You may want to defer this conclusion for a while.  Between new borrowing and rollover Canada needs to place over 700B of debt in the next year and just had the first downgrade.  So far the Bank of Canada has been covering this need by buying its own bonds, but there is a limit to how long that can be maintained before there is either a currency crash or a rate hike.

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On 7/15/2020 at 11:02 AM, Bugsy said:

Not all Canadians are compliant with all the quarantine requirements.  These Americans were found guilty of not following Canada's self-quarantine requirements upon entering Canada.  

Yes, they are from Florida. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/florida-couple-self-isolation-charges-1.5648703

Updated, "In a press release issued on Tuesday, police stated both people charged were from Florida. Police later confirmed to CBC News on Wednesday that the couple lives in Florida but one person is a Canadian citizen who lives and works in the United States. ",   they would not have been allowed to enter the country otherwise as visiting a seasonal property is not considered essential travel.

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On 7/17/2020 at 8:25 AM, Tax Man said:

You may want to defer this conclusion for a while.  Between new borrowing and rollover Canada needs to place over 700B of debt in the next year and just had the first downgrade.  So far the Bank of Canada has been covering this need by buying its own bonds, but there is a limit to how long that can be maintained before there is either a currency crash or a rate hike.

remind me how long did quantitative easing go on for...just what was that time limit?

(actually I'm very worried that the great unwind has not really happened yet)

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On 7/15/2020 at 5:27 PM, Zonker said:

You might want to consider how much the government is paying interest on their debt. Interest rates are at historically low values so huge debt is not as scary as 5 years ago. 

Below 2% for more than a decade

And you'd need to go back almost a quarter century to get above 6%

Nothing about the current economy suggest even with historic debt levels that interest rates will rocket up

canada-interest-rate@2x.png?s=cclr&v=202

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Canadians are not joking with their quarantine process, if you are allowed to enter the country; you better obey the quarantine requirements... And I am told by a Canadian friend: YES, they do check on you; you give a phone number and address where you are going to stay for 14 days, and they will come and check; you better be there...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2020/07/01/canada-extends-coronavirus-travel-ban-on-most-foreign-travelers/#7383c6cb70a8

 

Extract from the article above:

The penalties for not abiding by the quarantine restrictions, include:

  • a fine of up to $750,000
  • 6 months of jail time
  • being found inadmissible, removed from Canada and banned from entering for 1 year

Only people who provide essential services, for example, truck drivers who maintain the flow of goods or health care workers, are exempt from the quarantine requirements.

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