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Alan H

A prediction: the only four consumer target areas where "new" boats will sell

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I'm thinking that in ten to fifteen years, this is gonna be the scenario:

1.  Mega big-bucks racers, whether it be monohulls or multi's.  We're talking  $500,000-plus boats and $100,000 a year campaigns.  Whatever the successors to the TP 52's are, stuff like that.

2. Big cruisers, 45 feet plus. $300,000 and up

3. little trailerable cruisers...cut costs, 22-25 feet,  keep it in your garage

4. performance dinghies....think RS Feva.  This will depend on serious marketing savvy, more than whether a "new" dinghy offers something that dinghies from the 60', 70's and 80's offered.

=====

Everything else will be "used stuff" and as the price of living keeps going up, slips get more and more expensive and fewer and fewer people will choose to spend the money. People with 30-footers will offload the boats for cheap, or abandon them and get trailerable 23 footers, or leave the sport altogether.

I think that Dinghies Will Never Die completely is a basic truth. Windsurfing didn't kill dinghies. Dinghies are affordable and fun. They'll stick around and there will be new ones.

In category 1 and 2, money is no object, this is the 1%, maybe the 2% and so money well...it's not irrelevant, but it's only a small part of the  equation.   New boat prices go through the ceiling and slip fees prevent folks from keeping boats in the water but for the extremely wealthy, that doesn't really matter.  Tight real estate makes hoists and storage yards economically un-viable compared with condos and townhouses, so people need to be prepared to drive their boats a distance to launch.

I don't think this is "glum" necessarily. I mean, a lot of fun can be had in a trailerable 19 foot daysailor, and racing a Mercury (see the front page) is a lot of fun. It will just be back to the situation in the USA in the 1940's when "yachting" was an elite pastime.

Thoughts?

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25 minutes ago, Alan H said:

I'm thinking that in ten to fifteen years, this is gonna be the scenario:

1.  Mega big-bucks racers, whether it be monohulls or multi's.  We're talking  $500,000-plus boats and $100,000 a year campaigns.  Whatever the successors to the TP 52's are, stuff like that.

2. Big cruisers, 45 feet plus. $300,000 and up

3. little trailerable cruisers...cut costs, 22-25 feet,  keep it in your garage

4. performance dinghies....think RS Feva.  This will depend on serious marketing savvy, more than whether a "new" dinghy offers something that dinghies from the 60', 70's and 80's offered.

=====

Everything else will be "used stuff" and as the price of living keeps going up, slips get more and more expensive and fewer and fewer people will choose to spend the money. People with 30-footers will offload the boats for cheap, or abandon them and get trailerable 23 footers, or leave the sport altogether.

I think that Dinghies Will Never Die completely is a basic truth. Windsurfing didn't kill dinghies. Dinghies are affordable and fun. They'll stick around and there will be new ones.

In category 1 and 2, money is no object, this is the 1%, maybe the 2% and so money well...it's not irrelevant, but it's only a small part of the  equation.   New boat prices go through the ceiling and slip fees prevent folks from keeping boats in the water but for the extremely wealthy, that doesn't really matter.  Tight real estate makes hoists and storage yards economically un-viable compared with condos and townhouses, so people need to be prepared to drive their boats a distance to launch.

I don't think this is "glum" necessarily. I mean, a lot of fun can be had in a trailerable 19 foot daysailor, and racing a Mercury (see the front page) is a lot of fun. It will just be back to the situation in the USA in the 1940's when "yachting" was an elite pastime.

Thoughts?

100k a year campaign? Do you have any idea what some guys are spending on J70 regattas? 

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20 minutes ago, sunseeker said:

100k a year campaign? Do you have any idea what some guys are spending on J70 regattas? 

He doesn’t. Economic forecasting from the guy that can’t afford his $600 lifting rig from Scott Eason for his 4 knot shit box. Classic SA. 

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No shoes...it wasn't the $600 that bugged me. It was the fact that it SHOULD have cost $60, and an hours labor that bugged me. I'd happily pay $600 for something that required $600 and  delivered $600 worth of value. But then, you're a sock puppet, so....

I have no idea what people spend on J-70 campaigns, and am clueless what it takes to run a Tpac 52 campaign, though since I have a buddy who was a regular in one, and he got flown around the country if not the world, regularly to race, my $100,000 might be very low.

But really, does it cost $100,000 a year to run a high-level J-70 campaign?  A hundred thousand bucks?  Tthat's half or a third what you can buy a house for in many parts of the country.  And we wonder why new people don't get into the sport? ....

....and why people get fucking pissed off at entitled, rich ,white guys.  But that's for PA, so I'll leave it.
 

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2 hours ago, no shoes said:

He doesn’t. Economic forecasting from the guy that can’t afford his $600 lifting rig from Scott Eason for his 4 knot shit box. Classic SA. 

But he invented the bungy cord kite halyard. Must have made a fortune from that.

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3 hours ago, Alan H said:

1.  Mega big-bucks racers, whether it be monohulls or multi's.  We're talking  $500,000-plus boats and $100,000 a year campaigns.  Whatever the successors to the TP 52's are, stuff like that.

I disagree.  In 10 to 15 no one with the money will want to be seen generating that much CO2 and being that ostentatious.  The public and shareholder pressure will be too much.

The time for that shit has passed.  Those who plan to service that market will be struggling to find clients.

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1 minute ago, astro said:

I disagree.  In 10 to 15 no one with the money will want to be seen generating that much CO2 and being that ostentatious.  The public and shareholder pressure will be too much.

The time for that shit has passed.  Those who plan to service that market will be struggling to find clients.

You mean like so called professional sailors who sail Tp 52s!

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1 minute ago, lydia said:

You mean like so called professional sailors who sail Tp 52s!

I'm saying that after the world has been trained by COVID-19 to work together for a common cause, they will start using that learning to tackle climate change.  Sports that rely on transporting equipment and crew around the globe are doomed unless it is totally carbon neutral.

Part of that will be disincentives, costs imposed, taxes on things that generate climate changing gasses, that are not essential or at worst are luxury items.   This will affect sport in a big way.  On top of that, increasingly people who flaunt excess like internal combustion engines in Italian sports cars, or TP52's, will be seen as the problem.  Corporations will be reluctant to be seen sponsoring them unless they are 'green-washed', and that will be harder and harder to do.

Even the climate changing globe trotting FailGP is applying the Green Makeover without real credibility to me, but they have acknowledged reality.  Anyone who does not internalize this direction will be sorry.  Mega yachts for sport for me now, are already embarrassing dinosaurs.  In 10 years time they will be for everyone.

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1 hour ago, Alan H said:

 

....and why people get fucking pissed off at entitled, rich ,white guys. 
 

They get just as pissed of with entitled poor cunts. But you have raised a very good point. What this pandemic has showed is that there are many useless 'professions' that contribute fuck all to the greater good.

One of the happy outcomes is the demise of the Pro sailor. These entitled hero's lived the dream flying around the world on rich cunts dime to mutually stroke each others ego's. Even professional footballers bring joy to others, but pro sailors only bring joy to themselves and the owners that pay them. They contribute absolutely nothing to the sport and only take. Without them the sport would continue much improved, just as many or more boats will race and the people who have had to pay others to race their boats for them will either have to learn to sail, or become good enough company so that talented sailors will want to sail with them for nothing. Sure they would still spend a fortune on boats and sails, but they won't be able to buy as many trophies. They would have to start winning them. Pro sailors are now learning what a tiny skill set they offer the world but as soon as this shit show is over they can resume fucking the sport. 

Those rich cunts ego's won't stroke themselves.

 

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10 minutes ago, astro said:

I'm saying that after the world has been trained by COVID-19 to work together for a common cause, [...]

Yeah, right.

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26 minutes ago, astro said:

I'm saying that after the world has been trained by COVID-19 to work together for a common cause, they will start using that learning to tackle climate change.  Sports that rely on transporting equipment and crew around the globe are doomed unless it is totally carbon neutral.

Part of that will be disincentives, costs imposed, taxes on things that generate climate changing gasses, that are not essential or at worst are luxury items.   This will affect sport in a big way.  On top of that, increasingly people who flaunt excess like internal combustion engines in Italian sports cars, or TP52's, will be seen as the problem.  Corporations will be reluctant to be seen sponsoring them unless they are 'green-washed', and that will be harder and harder to do.

Even the climate changing globe trotting FailGP is applying the Green Makeover without real credibility to me, but they have acknowledged reality.  Anyone who does not internalize this direction will be sorry.  Mega yachts for sport for me now, are already embarrassing dinosaurs.  In 10 years time they will be for everyone.

Wanna bet?

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8 minutes ago, astro said:

I'm saying that after the world has been trained by COVID-19 to work together for a common cause, they will start using that learning to tackle climate change.  Sports that rely on transporting equipment and crew around the globe are doomed unless it is totally carbon neutral.

Part of that will be disincentives, costs imposed, taxes on things that generate climate changing gasses, that are not essential or at worst are luxury items.   This will affect sport in a big way.  On top of that, increasingly people who flaunt excess like internal combustion engines in Italian sports cars, or TP52's, will be seen as the problem.  Corporations will be reluctant to be seen sponsoring them unless they are 'green-washed', and that will be harder and harder to do.

Even the climate changing globe trotting FailGP is applying the Green Makeover without real credibility to me, but they have acknowledged reality.  Anyone who does not internalize this direction will be sorry.  Mega yachts for sport for me now, are already embarrassing dinosaurs.  In 10 years time they will be for everyone.

You better tell Saint Greta of the angry stare to get with the program. She won't sail on anything worth less than a Million dollars. All the other grifters with their hands out to go sailing to 'Raise awareness of climate change' will need to rethink as well. 11th hour racing, Climate change now and all the others that have been rattling the Tin for others to pay for them to not work and sail for years must be a bit pissed off that an autistic child with zero experience has jumped their shark at her first outing. Life must be tough for those sailing carbon boats to save the planet during these troubled times.

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32 minutes ago, astro said:

I'm saying that after the world has been trained by COVID-19 to work together for a common cause, they will start using that learning to tackle climate change.  Sports that rely on transporting equipment and crew around the globe are doomed unless it is totally carbon neutral.

Part of that will be disincentives, costs imposed, taxes on things that generate climate changing gasses, that are not essential or at worst are luxury items.   This will affect sport in a big way.  On top of that, increasingly people who flaunt excess like internal combustion engines in Italian sports cars, or TP52's, will be seen as the problem.  Corporations will be reluctant to be seen sponsoring them unless they are 'green-washed', and that will be harder and harder to do.

Even the climate changing globe trotting FailGP is applying the Green Makeover without real credibility to me, but they have acknowledged reality.  Anyone who does not internalize this direction will be sorry.  Mega yachts for sport for me now, are already embarrassing dinosaurs.  In 10 years time they will be for everyone.

Astro, we are in furious agreement pretty much.

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3 hours ago, Alan H said:

1.  Mega big-bucks racers, whether it be monohulls or multi's.  We're talking  $500,000-plus boats and $100,000 a year campaigns.  Whatever the successors to the TP 52's are, stuff like that.

2. Big cruisers, 45 feet plus. $300,000 and up

3. little trailerable cruisers...cut costs, 22-25 feet,  keep it in your garage

4. performance dinghies....think RS Feva.  This will depend on serious marketing savvy, more than whether a "new" dinghy offers something that dinghies from the 60', 70's and 80's offered.

1. Technically that's not really a major consumer target. There is only a couple of these built per year, More like $1-5 mil boats with $200k + campaigns. And as a couple are built, a couple are scrapped from existance. There is just someone in each area who is spending dumb-ass sums of money to win over the line, or to get their names on trophys regardless of actual competition.

2. 40+ foot, $500k and up cruisers, there will be some in the 30 foot range, but that range of people are being priced out. Something something decimation of the middle class.

3. Trailer-able boats really don't strike me as suddenly taking off, like the housing market everyone wants bigger and bigger for their money. Ain't no one here buying VX ones for club racing, instead spending the same money on SS34's, which ?! seriously confuses me.

4. Also, no way I see these ever really doing well, the market here which will keep giving is the fucking Laser market and similar trash ex-olympic boats. Hell there is an almost new etchells for sale here for $115k or something.

Ones I actually see doing okay... For CONSUMERS

5. Fast, good sailing, affordable boats with more limited crew requirements who already have an established class. F18's & Hobie 16's for example. People have a class to join, they aren't spending insane amounts of dosh, also enjoy 2-up sailing.

6. Single handers, Open Bics, Waszp's, Lasers, A class. Obviously the cheaper, the more they will sell.

7. 10-12m short handed Racer/Cruiser or Cruiser/Racers. Occasional racers and mostly cruisers or the mostly racers with occasional cruising.

8. 12m+ bridgedeck cats. Floating houses. Emphasis on non-performance, like the new sea-wind, not complicated, some mini-keeled cats which are like homes, for the people with $500k + expendable income who watch SLV etc but who don't really care about performance, racing or anything. The kind of thing with a 40 year old 36' VDS has better VMG.

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If people want to live on them, take Greta across the ocean powered by the wind instead of thousands of litres of kerosene, that's a good thing.

I am still amazed at how one kid speaking the bleeding obvious upsets so many.  Grown men with foam and spittle ejecting from their orifices, veins popping in their necks and red unseeing eyes bugging out, choking on their almost swallowed tongues.  How fucking dare some kid be allowed to say it as it is!  Lies are the new normal, make the little freaky bitch stop!

giphy.gif

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6 minutes ago, astro said:

If people want to live on them, take Greta across the ocean powered by the wind instead of thousands of litres of kerosene, that's a good thing.

I am still amazed at how one kid speaking the bleeding obvious upsets so many.  Grown men with foam and spittle ejecting from their orifices, veins popping in their necks and red unseeing eyes bugging out, choking on their almost swallowed tongues.  How fucking dare some kid be allowed to say it as it is!  Lies are the new normal, make the little freaky bitch stop!

giphy.gif

Wasn't there a thread about this once?  :ph34r:

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3 hours ago, darth reapius said:

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8. 12m+ bridgedeck cats. Floating houses. Emphasis on non-performance, like the new sea-wind, not complicated, some mini-keeled cats which are like homes, for the people with $500k + expendable income who watch SLV etc but who don't really care about performance, racing or anything. The kind of thing with a 40 year old 36' VDS has better VMG.

I forgot the big cruising cats. Yeah. I think you're right. $500k power cats with some sail-ishy thingies up there will probably sell. There won't be millions of them, but  a few will sell, and at a half millions bucks a pop, a company doesn't have to sell a lot.

 

Also new trailerable boats...I dunno. You might be right. The guy who got priced out of keeping his Catalina 30 in the marina, might just say F*** it, and go play billiards instead of buying a trailerable.

 

Part of what brought me to post this thread, was a post I made in another thread, where I mentioned dreaming about there being a nationwide (heck, Canada, too...call it "North American") shorthanded class boat.  The closest thing to come along in that range in a long time is the Beneteau / Seascape 27. Great shorthanded boat, great ocean boat, and a size that won't kill someone to keep it running. But they're $100K  a pop.

And the cold, hard reality is that not very many people can drop $100,000 on a sailboat.  That goes double for hardcore solo and 2-up sailors, who like to race.  Those that can, most likely can drop $200,000 or $300,000, why would they buy something like a 27 when they can buy a 40+ foot prestige boat?

And honestly, SHOULD be people be spending $100K on a sailboat?  Maybe I'm too socially liberal but I don't think I could get myself to do it. I have friends with $100K and up sailboats. I like them, their boats are beautiful but I don't think I could sleep at night if I did that.  I struggle enough with my little S2 7.9, thinking of all the good that I could be doing with that money, but I'm pouring it into my "fun".

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5 hours ago, Alan H said:

No shoes...it wasn't the $600 that bugged me. It was the fact that it SHOULD have cost $60, and an hours labor that bugged me. I'd happily pay $600 for something that required $600 and  delivered $600 worth of value. But then, you're a sock puppet, so....

I have no idea what people spend on J-70 campaigns, and am clueless what it takes to run a Tpac 52 campaign, though since I have a buddy who was a regular in one, and he got flown around the country if not the world, regularly to race, my $100,000 might be very low.

But really, does it cost $100,000 a year to run a high-level J-70 campaign?  A hundred thousand bucks?  Tthat's half or a third what you can buy a house for in many parts of the country.  And we wonder why new people don't get into the sport? ....

....and why people get fucking pissed off at entitled, rich ,white guys.  But that's for PA, so I'll leave it.
 

No, it doesn’t cost 100k to run a high level J70 campaign. It costs more, a lot more. It’s not uncommon for a top 10 team to spend 50k at a week long regatta, and maybe more in some cases. The care and feeding of semi pros is expensive.

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We're in our mid 30s dual income and were able to buy a used mid-30' J boat, and a house that's not completely falling apart and we're doing pretty ok among our peer group. At some point we're looking at upgrading to something like a used 40.7 or J/120 for future family expansion. We buy one new sail every three years but we're not trying to win trophies.

I have no idea how anybody under 45 is supposed to afford a new 30'+ boat these days. By my age, my father had bought his third new Catalina, and we work in roughly the same field. I also do all my own maintenance and repairs as we couldn't afford the boat + slip without my own "free" labor. Long term crew have paid for a couple of jib and spinnaker repairs. 

All the new boat dealers want us to sign up with a charter service to offset the costs but then it's not really your boat anymore except for tax purposes.

At some point we'd like to get a Santa Cruz 27 or J/70 for weekend trips as a trailer sailer but that's a long ways away

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10 minutes ago, Hadlock said:

We're in our mid 30s dual income and were able to buy a used mid-30' J boat, and a house that's not completely falling apart and we're doing pretty ok among our peer group.

Mid 30s aswell. In my peer group double income upper middleclass to lower upper class people (MDs, teachers, engineers, etc) are using all their money to buy a house.

Singles in middle income jobs can't afford to own anything but a 10 year old car.

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6 hours ago, astro said:

I'm saying that after the world has been trained by COVID-19 to work together for a common cause, they will start using that learning to tackle climate change.  Sports that rely on transporting equipment and crew around the globe are doomed unless it is totally carbon neutral.

Part of that will be disincentives, costs imposed, taxes on things that generate climate changing gasses, that are not essential or at worst are luxury items.   This will affect sport in a big way.  On top of that, increasingly people who flaunt excess like internal combustion engines in Italian sports cars, or TP52's, will be seen as the problem.  Corporations will be reluctant to be seen sponsoring them unless they are 'green-washed', and that will be harder and harder to do.

Even the climate changing globe trotting FailGP is applying the Green Makeover without real credibility to me, but they have acknowledged reality.  Anyone who does not internalize this direction will be sorry.  Mega yachts for sport for me now, are already embarrassing dinosaurs.  In 10 years time they will be for everyone.

That’s laughably wrong. Coronavirus has driven sales of POWER boats to record levels. 

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10 hours ago, Alan H said:

Everything else will be "used stuff" and as the price of living keeps going up, slips get more and more expensive and fewer and fewer people will choose to spend the money. People with 30-footers will offload the boats for cheap, or abandon them and get trailerable 23 footers, or leave the sport altogether.

This is now. On the East Coast there seems to be two classes of used 30 ish footers for sale: Folks who have already had their hearts broken and are offloading very nice boats for well under 10K, and folks who haven't seen the writing on the wall yet. 

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I think there's a 5th category of boat that we're missing here: none at all! Sailboats are large and often laborious material commitments. Even small dinghies need places to store them, trailers or dollies, etc., and cost thousands of dollars. Mooring or dock waitlists at public harbors (read: affordable to lower-crust folks like myself) can run 25 years or more.

 

Kayak, canoe, and paddleboard sales have skyrocketed recently, and that makes sense. Why buy a large, expensive, skill-intensive sailboat requiring years on a waitlist to have a place to keep when you could get a kayak you can throw on top of your car instead? Trailering in and of itself is a deterrent to many folks so it's not like smaller boats are the solution. Yacht clubs are old, stodgy, expensive, and mayonnaise-white... not exactly my generation's preferred scene.

 

As for big race boats... frankly, who cares? I don't know anyone my age who watches the America's Cup and at least that's a well produced race with fast and exciting boats. Otherwise, few folks want to watch a bunch of sails on the horizon meander back and forth at 5-10 knots for 12 hours. And to non-sailors, racing rules seem complicated and annoying. How long can pro racing sustain itself when most people would rather watch a video game streamer? The only young people who get into doing or watching sailboat racing are started on that track by sailing parents, and even then most kids who start racing don't keep at it.

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Alan I think you are close to laying it out for most of North America. Where we live in Northern California - they are making hard to keep a boat without deep pockets. And yes the 600 dollars was ridiculous fee. - i am with you there.  As for trailerable 25' sailboat boats and keeping them at one's house - that is becoming a nonstarter as most new builds have HOA rules that prohibit it and the places to store them are drying up under state housing developments and greedy land developers who are taking up all the waterfront that is zone industrial or storage.  When I look at the those large cats in my marina all I can think of how much space they take up and how many other slips (and boat) they had to remove to get those fast sailing whales in.

I think we have created our own failing destiny with affordable modern yachting. As the demographics of who can buy new, decent realistic all purpose boats is shrinking. The move towards shorthanded boats is addressing our own behavour, current economics and aging population. this whole move is actually hurting the whole american (and other) sailing communities. As boat owners we do not take out newbies, coworkers and friends by extension others for daysails like we were doing a generation ago. The contests we enter are usually for short handed crewing options just because of connivance. We can not be bothered to find new, younger or other interested by never tried sailing because it is all "too much a hassle to get them to show up". This Covid19 bull shit is really hurting our sailing life and setting it back years of growth as no new or potential returning sailors are being (re)introduced to this great past time and lifestyle. In a practice of good social distancing and trying to remain healthy,  I think we in the sailing community must take a few chances and get some new blood on the water and sailing - if we do not we are only hurting our passion and reducing the number of people who know how special this is.

Back to the OP - I actually think the europeans are leading the way with 5.5 to 10 meter boats.  The Delher 30 is a fine example of what can be done with a semi trailerable 30 something monohull that can daysail or ocean race two-handed. Maybe Ron Moore does have an answer for with that proposed 33 footer. I know the new carbon fiber Antruim 27 (a berkely built boat)  is showing nice turn of speed with modern materials and the new J99 that sails around me in the Oakland estuary is so sweet. These boats still gives me hope. Until i can properly afford my new boat, I will continue to restore older race boats as a hobby and get them ready for the next caretaker and the next generation.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Blue Crab said:

This is now. On the East Coast there seems to be two classes of used 30 ish footers for sale: Folks who have already had their hearts broken and are offloading very nice boats for well under 10K, and folks who haven't seen the writing on the wall yet. 

This is not just now, it's been the last ten years or more.  Time was, you could buy a brand new J/24 or Catalina 27, or any number of boats that size, all churned out in large quantities, for a price that a mid-30s middle class guy could afford, because he didn't have student loans.  Now they'll sell you a J/70 or J/80, which cost about the same as a fully loaded Escalade, and is thoroughly uncruisable to boot.  There is zero, absolutely zero, market, for brand new boats for anyone but the really rich.

Part of that is student loans and part of that I blame on the fact that there are so many people with a lack of interest in any hobby at all.  They say the modern-day millennial and/or Gen Z-er prefers "experiences" to material things.  Which means that a lot of them are just toe-dipping dilettantes, running from experience to experience and doing it for the 'gram.  They're not interested in plunging all their time and money into one hobby.  Name a hobby, like skiing, golfing, or bowling, and they're all bleeding participants.  Ours is a particularly involved one that you can't really just dabble in, not if you're going to be a boat owner.  So boat makers focus on the people with interest and disposable income, which is people over 50.  Mid-30s-types, people my age, used to have boats.  Now we don't.

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13 hours ago, Alan H said:

I'm thinking that in ten to fifteen years, this is gonna be the scenario:

1.  Mega big-bucks racers, whether it be monohulls or multi's.  We're talking  $500,000-plus boats and $100,000 a year campaigns.  Whatever the successors to the TP 52's are, stuff like that.

2. Big cruisers, 45 feet plus. $300,000 and up

3. little trailerable cruisers...cut costs, 22-25 feet,  keep it in your garage

4. performance dinghies....think RS Feva.  This will depend on serious marketing savvy, more than whether a "new" dinghy offers something that dinghies from the 60', 70's and 80's offered.

=====

Everything else will be "used stuff" and as the price of living keeps going up, slips get more and more expensive and fewer and fewer people will choose to spend the money. People with 30-footers will offload the boats for cheap, or abandon them and get trailerable 23 footers, or leave the sport altogether.

I think that Dinghies Will Never Die completely is a basic truth. Windsurfing didn't kill dinghies. Dinghies are affordable and fun. They'll stick around and there will be new ones.

In category 1 and 2, money is no object, this is the 1%, maybe the 2% and so money well...it's not irrelevant, but it's only a small part of the  equation.   New boat prices go through the ceiling and slip fees prevent folks from keeping boats in the water but for the extremely wealthy, that doesn't really matter.  Tight real estate makes hoists and storage yards economically un-viable compared with condos and townhouses, so people need to be prepared to drive their boats a distance to launch.

I don't think this is "glum" necessarily. I mean, a lot of fun can be had in a trailerable 19 foot daysailor, and racing a Mercury (see the front page) is a lot of fun. It will just be back to the situation in the USA in the 1940's when "yachting" was an elite pastime.

Thoughts?

Let's disregard 1. for the moment, boats, yachts, ships of this type have always been around and will be, that's a one-off market.

2. Yes. Mainly driven by the charter market. Will get as fat as possible, also in the front, to be able to compete with catamarans that size. Look at the new Bavaria or Oceanis in this range.

3. No, well not for the prices you see today. Half a year ago I would have said: build them in SE Asia. Now, not so much. It's a hard market, tooling and design can easily disembowel  you as a builder. Here the concepts that will survive are: proven One-Design (there will still be new-built Folkboats and H-Boats, don't ask me why), very cheap offerings (Far East 18) and unique concepts such as the Swallow Yachts very quick motorsailer (see below) Here, you compete rather with other forms of outdoor lifestyle, Minivans, expensive hiking and camping equipment, high-class road/gravel bikes. Maybe some combined concepts here, i.e. a boat plus a minivan as a bundle?

4. Only things that will fly, possibly electronically enhanced. I'm more skeptical here for Finn-Dinghies and the likes, also their more traditional heirs. 

What will be new or at least reinforced?

A. New building materials: legislation by then will require a concept for the disposal of the boat, at least in Europe. And if you want to sell here, you need to comply everywhere. So expect a lot more flax and bio-based resin, also for the sails. Engine-wise we will see a much larger share of electric propulsion, also in larger boats, fuelled in part by hydrogeneration and recuperation.

B. More electronics and helpers: Those who want to sail as a sport, offshore, will have a wide array of electronics, even more than today, optimizing at any point of sail, automatically. Necessity for large crews will come down drastically, two-handed will be a standard division for all major races. Expect more concepts like the Dehler 30 OD. Intelligent boatbuilders will sell you some sort of 'upgrade' insurance, i.e. a full refit of your platform after say 5 years and constant software updates, also service packages like exclusive trainings, routing, race-readiness guarantee or transfer of the boat.

C. More long-term rent or maybe even the resurgence of much smaller 'clubs'. Why buy a HR on your own, if you plan to sail the Baltic just for six weeks? Share with someone else or get a good long-term deal. I think charter companies might go into this direction. 

D. Daysailing. We have seen this over the last years already. I think many people who enjoy sailing but are stuck between a boat and a house will opt for the house: easier to finance or re-sell in case you need to. So I expect to see much more development like in the Netherlands: houses and cabins by the lake, the sea or at least a canal that leads to it, and a smaller boat that comes along with it.

E. Multihulls. I don't see sailors jumping ship (hehe), rather motorboaters coming down, especially those who are more eco-oriented or are looking for something a bit quieter but with the same comfort. I think it will rather remain a charter market because of the high costs of these boats, that in the normal case need to be set-off. 

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34 minutes ago, coyotepup said:

This is not just now, it's been the last ten years or more.  Time was, you could buy a brand new J/24 or Catalina 27, or any number of boats that size, all churned out in large quantities, for a price that a mid-30s middle class guy could afford, because he didn't have student loans.  Now they'll sell you a J/70 or J/80, which cost about the same as a fully loaded Escalade, and is thoroughly uncruisable to boot.  There is zero, absolutely zero, market, for brand new boats for anyone but the really rich.

Part of that is student loans and part of that I blame on the fact that there are so many people with a lack of interest in any hobby at all.  They say the modern-day millennial and/or Gen Z-er prefers "experiences" to material things.  Which means that a lot of them are just toe-dipping dilettantes, running from experience to experience and doing it for the 'gram.  They're not interested in plunging all their time and money into one hobby.  Name a hobby, like skiing, golfing, or bowling, and they're all bleeding participants.  Ours is a particularly involved one that you can't really just dabble in, not if you're going to be a boat owner.  So boat makers focus on the people with interest and disposable income, which is people over 50.  Mid-30s-types, people my age, used to have boats.  Now we don't.

I dunno, maybe I'm lucky but in my inland Wisconsin PHRF fleet we have a bunch of thirtysomethings with boats - a J/24, two Dolphin 24s (including mine), an S2 27, a Ranger 22, and a Hunter 25.5 all with younger owners and young crews (and all racing spinnaker). It's cheap to have a boat here, and affordability is right in our club's mission statement, so that helps.

For the racer-cruisers that we sail in PHRF, there's a good reason why no new boats aren't being built - we don't need them! Older boats are often built more durably, and at least for my purposes they have better and higher-quality interior layouts. With basic repair skills, they're just about infinitely renewable and even with extensive professional restoration work you'll be hard-pressed to spend as much as buying a new boat. We seem to already have more boats than interested buyers, so why build new ones right now?

I fly planes too (in a flying club, I don't own), and if you see a Cessna built in the 90s that's pretty "new." Aircraft aluminum holds up well, you can replace instruments, radios, and engines, and beyond that a small airplane is a simple machine. Plenty of people still fly planes built during the 1946 postwar boom that cost less than $20K on the used market.

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8 hours ago, sunseeker said:

No, it doesn’t cost 100k to run a high level J70 campaign. It costs more, a lot more. It’s not uncommon for a top 10 team to spend 50k at a week long regatta, and maybe more in some cases. The care and feeding of semi pros is expensive.

I had no idea.  $50K for a weeks championship?  I'm sorry, but that's sick.

I repeat...and we wonder why young folks aren't getting into the sport. To be political...we wonder why marginalized people get pissed off at  rich, oblivious white guys throwing incredible sums of money at a recreational sport.

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Again, while this is "change", I don't think that it's necessarily a BAD thing, from the boating perspective. People lived full and happy lives before fiberglass revolutionized boatbuilding. When an O'day Daysailer was a Cool Thing, people had a blast sailing them and racing them. That fun is still out there. There are plenty of small keelboats and performance dinghies to provide racing thrills, and  there's a reason that "micro-cruising" is becoming a ~Thing~.  People will still get on the water.

And the ultra-rich can still have their shiny new  made-in China  $400,000  OshPosh 43 with $20K worth of really slick electronics.

Whether it's a good thing from a society perspective, well...that's a discussion for PA.

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15 hours ago, no shoes said:

He doesn’t. Economic forecasting from the guy that can’t afford his $600 lifting rig from Scott Eason for his 4 knot shit box. Classic SA. 

I bought a $600 lift kit for my Fareast28R and the thread size is incorrect, it’s too large for the keel insert. The rig is well constructed, but shit, those Chinese make everything difficult with the constant upgrades to their boats...

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I'm pretty new here and to the sport in general but it seems to me the cost of a new boat and finding moorage is an age old problem and I'm not sure it's any worse now than it has been historically.

Adjusting for inflation I'm pretty sure my 1984 C&C was more expensive new than a similar sized boat today. It's also not like technology has increased so dramatically that an 80s boat is obsolete. There's a reason people are spending well over the cost of a brand new boat on upgrades/repairs for their old faithfuls.

The rich guy boats and race campaigns seem to be similarly aligned as far as cost is concerned.

There also seems to be a lot of manufacturers producing 25-40 ft boats all across the racing/cruising spectrum right now just like they were in the 70s and 80s. J/Boats, Beneteau, Jenneau, etc. all seem to be producing performance cruising and pure racing boats.

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10 hours ago, sunseeker said:

No, it doesn’t cost 100k to run a high level J70 campaign. It costs more, a lot more. It’s not uncommon for a top 10 team to spend 50k at a week long regatta, and maybe more in some cases. The care and feeding of semi pros is expensive.

This bullshit is fucking up yachting.  It confirms the general public's perception of elitism.

Just one change would stop this shit, the use of professional crew.  If the owners cannot steer it with a few friends, they should not own one.

Edit: Oh I forgot.  There is a serious flaw in that argument.  Most of those people don't have any friends, just customers and enemies.

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1 hour ago, climenuts said:

I'm pretty new here and to the sport in general but it seems to me the cost of a new boat and finding moorage is an age old problem and I'm not sure it's any worse now than it has been historically.

Adjusting for inflation I'm pretty sure my 1984 C&C was more expensive new than a similar sized boat today. It's also not like technology has increased so dramatically that an 80s boat is obsolete. There's a reason people are spending well over the cost of a brand new boat on upgrades/repairs for their old faithfuls.

The rich guy boats and race campaigns seem to be similarly aligned as far as cost is concerned.

There also seems to be a lot of manufacturers producing 25-40 ft boats all across the racing/cruising spectrum right now just like they were in the 70s and 80s. J/Boats, Beneteau, Jenneau, etc. all seem to be producing performance cruising and pure racing boats.

First off, ignore average wages.  If you look at what is considered to be "Middle Class Income", in 1980 it was about $62k in the US and $73k in 2014 according to this web-site: https://www.statista.com/statistics/500385/median-household-income-in-the-us-by-income-tier/  Another web-site says $78k in 2016, so the first set of numbers is probably pretty reflective.  So we can probably say middle class income has increased about 20% between 1980 and today - 25% max.

Back when the Hotfoot 31 was introduced in 1982 or so, you could buy one for 52k CAD (42K USD in 1982), which included a basic Leitch McBride sail inventory (main, genoa, spin) decent interior with standing headroom.  Similar sized racer/cruiser today is at least 120k USD although I don't even look at new prices, so that is a guess at best.  I only mention the Hotfoot 31 because I have a copy of the old sales promo at home still.

So middle class incomes have increased maybe 25% at best since 1980 and new boat costs have probably tripled at least,

Moorage costs?  Back in 1990,  I believe I was paying $3/ft/month at Oak Bay Marina - less than $1,000/year.  1980 would have been even less.  Now rates are around $14-$15/ft/month.  So moorage has more than quadrupled since 1990.

Finding moorage?  It has improved in Vancouver since around 2008 which is when it was almost impossible.  If your boat is under 30 ft LOA, it's not much of an issue anymore.  over that is still usually at least a 1-2 year wait I think unless you luck out.  A lot of marinas have removed smaller slips to make room for bigger ones since few in North America are buying boats under 24 ft.  

Back in 1988, I bought a 27 footer without thinking about moorage, but I had a choice of several with a couple of quick drops ins at the marinas.

I won't even get into the aspects of finding and keeping a crew.

Overall I would say purchasing and maintaining a boat is way more costly today than back when the C&C 29 was introduced - both in terms of cash and headaches.

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12 minutes ago, 12 metre said:

First off, ignore average wages. 

Yeah, average wages are meaningless, when some people earn more in a toilet break than most others in months.

Median single household income in Germany is 1.4k € a month. 3.6k € for three person households. Tax and health insurance already deducted.

No way anyone is going to buy a new boat with that. And 50% have less.

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1 hour ago, astro said:

This bullshit is fucking up yachting.  It confirms the general public's perception of elitism.

Just one change would stop this shit, the use of professional crew.  If the owners cannot steer it with a few friends, they should not own one.

 

Pro crew for the America's Cup? Fine. 

But $50,000 for 4-6 days of racing a J-70?  That's just sick.  It's wasteful and  grossly over-the-top...in-your-face...arrogantly hyper-consumer.  The bitch is that it's  not just once a year. It's 8 - 10 times a year:  The Atlantic Regionals, the Southern Championships, the Pacific Coast Championships, the Nationals, the North Americans...

These guys are spending $400,000 a fucking year, TO RACE A J-70.
I'm sorry, but not only can I not even conceive of that, I think it's morally WRONG. How the hell are we supposed to "sell" sailing and sail racing when any outsider can point to that sort of gross spending?  When the USA is confronting a homeless problem of overwhelming proportions, when people are revolting in the streets for justice, when that guy could spent one twentieth of that amount of money and still have a blast, and put the rest to doing some good in the world,  how is $400,000 a year to race fucking J-70 defensible in any way?

Ugh. ~Rant~...

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51 minutes ago, astro said:

This bullshit is fucking up yachting.  It confirms the general public's perception of elitism.

Just one change would stop this shit, the use of professional crew.  If the owners cannot steer it with a few friends, they should not own one.

Edit: Oh I forgot.  There is a serious flaw in that argument.  Most of those people don't have any friends, just customers and enemies.

You can’t tell people how to spend their post tax, hard earned money. There are classes that limit sails and are pro free. Go sail in those fleets. This whole eat the rich deal is lame. 

Why not get into the J105? Why not the Harbor 20? Both good one design fleets. No pros, sail limits.

Let the big boys do their thing in the classes that allow pros. It just smacks of jealousy. I’m sure if you guys could afford it, you would be in there like a dirty shirt. I’m sure there are those that would never pay a professional sailor. That’s fine. Would you say the same about a business consultant? 

Sailing is expensive. But there is true value to be found. I think $27 dollars a foot for my slips in San Diego is a value.you may or may not agree. We sail year round, the facilities are first class, the resort is awesome, we get lots of perks. When I got my boat it was in Newport Beach, on Fernando Ct. $54/ foot  No parking, no bathroom, about 5 feet deep. I did not see the value.

As far as the OPs lifting rig goes, as I said in the other thread on Riggers, always get a written estimate. That way there are no surprises, and no need to go on a rant on the web and trash one of the best riggers in the industry. Sorry he feels like he got taken advantage of. But business 101 is get an estimate. 

Sailing will survive. Been here a long time. Be here long after we are all gone. 

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19 minutes ago, Alan H said:

Pro crew for the America's Cup? Fine. 

But $50,000 for 4-6 days of racing a J-70?  That's just sick.  It's wasteful and  grossly over-the-top...in-your-face...arrogantly hyper-consumer.  The bitch is that it's  not just once a year. It's 8 - 10 times a year:  The Atlantic Regionals, the Southern Championships, the Pacific Coast Championships, the Nationals, the North Americans...

These guys are spending $400,000 a fucking year, TO RACE A J-70.
I'm sorry, but not only can I not even conceive of that, I think it's morally WRONG. How the hell are we supposed to "sell" sailing and sail racing when any outsider can point to that sort of gross spending?  When the USA is confronting a homeless problem of overwhelming proportions, when people are revolting in the streets for justice, when that guy could spent one twentieth of that amount of money and still have a blast, and put the rest to doing some good in the world,  how is $400,000 a year to race fucking J-70 defensible in any way?

Ugh. ~Rant~...

That’s why you join a fleet like the Viper 640 instead of the J70. I’ve never sailed in either fleet, but they fit my purposes for comparison. A healthy wallet can buy your way into roughly the top ten percent of one fleet. That same wallet only keeps you out of the bottom ten percent of the other fleet. You’re still welcome to spend as much as you’d like on travel accommodations, but you won’t be buying an America’s Cup level tactician to yell at you all day. 

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29 minutes ago, Alan H said:

Pro crew for the America's Cup? Fine. 

But $50,000 for 4-6 days of racing a J-70?  That's just sick.  It's wasteful and  grossly over-the-top...in-your-face...arrogantly hyper-consumer.  The bitch is that it's  not just once a year. It's 8 - 10 times a year:  The Atlantic Regionals, the Southern Championships, the Pacific Coast Championships, the Nationals, the North Americans...

These guys are spending $400,000 a fucking year, TO RACE A J-70.
I'm sorry, but not only can I not even conceive of that, I think it's morally WRONG. How the hell are we supposed to "sell" sailing and sail racing when any outsider can point to that sort of gross spending?  When the USA is confronting a homeless problem of overwhelming proportions, when people are revolting in the streets for justice, when that guy could spent one twentieth of that amount of money and still have a blast, and put the rest to doing some good in the world,  how is $400,000 a year to race fucking J-70 defensible in any way?

Ugh. ~Rant~...

I don't think it's the least bit morally wrong for someone to spend the money they earned the way they want to spend it.  And it's all going right into the economy where it does a lot of people some good.

I assure you the general public does not have any clue about the money spent campaigning J/70s. They think it's an expensive sport without even knowing about that.  Anyone who does learn about someone doing that will probably just roll their eyes at the person, not the sport.

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2 hours ago, climenuts said:

I'm pretty new here and to the sport in general but it seems to me the cost of a new boat and finding moorage is an age old problem and I'm not sure it's any worse now than it has been historically.

Adjusting for inflation I'm pretty sure my 1984 C&C was more expensive new than a similar sized boat today. It's also not like technology has increased so dramatically that an 80s boat is obsolete. There's a reason people are spending well over the cost of a brand new boat on upgrades/repairs for their old faithfuls.

The rich guy boats and race campaigns seem to be similarly aligned as far as cost is concerned.

There also seems to be a lot of manufacturers producing 25-40 ft boats all across the racing/cruising spectrum right now just like they were in the 70s and 80s. J/Boats, Beneteau, Jenneau, etc. all seem to be producing performance cruising and pure racing boats.

I dunno man.  If you can find a brand-new boat over, say, 32 feet, for less than $175K, I'd be pretty surprised.  That's the price of a new C&C 101, or thereabouts.  A new J/111 has got to be $200K+, easy.  In 1984 dollars that (the $175K) is about $70K.  Was a Tartan 10 or C&C 35 a $70K boat?  Well, I never bought one brand new, but again, I'd be shocked to hear so.

Sisu points out that the durability of old boats kind of hurts the market for that kind of cheap, brand-new daysailer.  True enough.  But eventually the world is gonna run out of old Catalinas, and nobody will want to make new ones.

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Yup. Bought my first boat, a Laser for $800 when I was a kid. According to the westegg.com inflation calculator, that would be $4,200 today. Now the cost is $6,990. 67% higher than inflation adjusted dollars. Liability insurance built in? 

I was 14 and mowed lawns for 3 (starting at 11) years to buy it. Not sure how many lawns an 11 year old has to mow to make $7k today.

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2 hours ago, 12 metre said:

First off, ignore average wages.  If you look at what is considered to be "Middle Class Income", in 1980 it was about $62k in the US and $73k in 2014 according to this web-site: https://www.statista.com/statistics/500385/median-household-income-in-the-us-by-income-tier/  Another web-site says $78k in 2016, so the first set of numbers is probably pretty reflective.  So we can probably say middle class income has increased about 20% between 1980 and today - 25% max.

Back when the Hotfoot 31 was introduced in 1982 or so, you could buy one for 52k CAD (42K USD in 1982), which included a basic Leitch McBride sail inventory (main, genoa, spin) decent interior with standing headroom.  Similar sized racer/cruiser today is at least 120k USD although I don't even look at new prices, so that is a guess at best.  I only mention the Hotfoot 31 because I have a copy of the old sales promo at home still.

So middle class incomes have increased maybe 25% at best since 1980 and new boat costs have probably tripled at least,

Moorage costs?  Back in 1990,  I believe I was paying $3/ft/month at Oak Bay Marina - less than $1,000/year.  1980 would have been even less.  Now rates are around $14-$15/ft/month.  So moorage has more than quadrupled since 1990.

Finding moorage?  It has improved in Vancouver since around 2008 which is when it was almost impossible.  If your boat is under 30 ft LOA, it's not much of an issue anymore.  over that is still usually at least a 1-2 year wait I think unless you luck out.  A lot of marinas have removed smaller slips to make room for bigger ones since few in North America are buying boats under 24 ft.  

Back in 1988, I bought a 27 footer without thinking about moorage, but I had a choice of several with a couple of quick drops ins at the marinas.

I won't even get into the aspects of finding and keeping a crew.

Overall I would say purchasing and maintaining a boat is way more costly today than back when the C&C 29 was introduced - both in terms of cash and headaches.

 

1 hour ago, coyotepup said:

I dunno man.  If you can find a brand-new boat over, say, 32 feet, for less than $175K, I'd be pretty surprised.  That's the price of a new C&C 101, or thereabouts.  A new J/111 has got to be $200K+, easy.  In 1984 dollars that (the $175K) is about $70K.  Was a Tartan 10 or C&C 35 a $70K boat?  Well, I never bought one brand new, but again, I'd be shocked to hear so.

Sisu points out that the durability of old boats kind of hurts the market for that kind of cheap, brand-new daysailer.  True enough.  But eventually the world is gonna run out of old Catalinas, and nobody will want to make new ones.

I'm definitely out of my element when arguing this point due to my experience/age but I think there are a lot more factors in play here. The average detached home in Vancouver in 1985 was ~$175k vs $1.8m in 2015. Prime interest rate was 10% in '85 (20% in '81) vs 2.7% in 2015 which drastically skews purchase ability. Metro Vancouver's Population more than doubled between 1981 and 2016. Using Vancouver as an example to align with 12m.

I'm mainly playing devil's advocate but I don't think the outlook is as bleak as it's being represented here. I'm a snowflake millennial so I'm all about how unfair things are compared to the 80s :D 

 

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29 minutes ago, climenuts said:

 

I'm definitely out of my element when arguing this point due to my experience/age but I think there are a lot more factors in play here. The average detached home in Vancouver in 1985 was ~$175k vs $1.8m in 2015. Prime interest rate was 10% in '85 (20% in '81) vs 2.7% in 2015 which drastically skews purchase ability. Metro Vancouver's Population more than doubled between 1981 and 2016. Using Vancouver as an example to align with 12m.

I'm mainly playing devil's advocate but I don't think the outlook is as bleak as it's being represented here. I'm a snowflake millennial so I'm all about how unfair things are compared to the 80s :D 

 

No, it’s pretty bleak. I’ll use myself as an example. I’m 40 and have been actively racing since I was 6. I love the game. I’ve owned a bunch of cheap old sail boats. I’ve worked in the business taking care of rich guy’s race boats. I love everything about sailing. Finally at a point I could afford to buy an actual new boat. Bought a powerboat. I wanted cheap, convenient time on the water. It costs me $700 a year to store it in a climate controlled warehouse that I can drive in, grab my boat and go. $75 for an annual permit for the boat ramp half a mile away. On a really busy day, I might wait fifteen minutes at the ramp. Virtually zero rigging time. Total fuel cost for the year is less than half the price of a 3di J3 for a 30 footer. 
 

I’ll happily sail other people’s boats as long as I can, it’s just not the financial black hole for me. When I get a little tired of racing, I’ll buy a cruiser, but it’s mind boggling what people will spend to win a race. 
 

Edit: if the sport is losing people like me when it comes to buying new boats, it isn’t a good sign. 

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20 hours ago, Alan H said:

I [...] am clueless what it takes to run a Tpac 52 campaign, though since I have a buddy who was a regular in one, and he got flown around the country if not the world, regularly to race, my $100,000 might be very low.

You're off by a factor of 10, minimum, unless your "campaign" consists of beating up the locals at Beer Cans with a first-gen TP52.

Annual sail budget for sails alone, no other expenses on a SuperSeries TP52, is around $500,000.

$100,000 per regatta is cheaping out, all around.

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9 minutes ago, Somebody Else said:

You're off by a factor of 10, minimum, unless your "campaign" consists of beating up the locals at Beer Cans with a first-gen TP52.

Annual sail budget for sails alone, no other expenses on a SuperSeries TP52, is around $400,000.

And that’s for the cheap quantum stuff, not the Gucci North rags.

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2 hours ago, Monkey said:

You’re still welcome to spend as much as you’d like on travel accommodations, but you won’t be buying an America’s Cup level tactician to yell at you all day. 

God, I miss the screaming! 

I don't think I could actually get one to fit on my Viper.

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15 minutes ago, Somebody Else said:

You're off by a factor of 10, minimum, unless your "campaign" consists of beating up the locals at Beer Cans with a first-gen TP52.

Annual sail budget for sails alone, no other expenses on a SuperSeries TP52, is around $500,000.

$100,000 per regatta is cheaping out, all around.

Yep, that's obscene.

The carbon footprint for flying pros in and out just make it worse.

If I was waving my dick around in one of those fleets, I would be cashing in soon to get the fuck out before the entire house of cards implodes as an embarrassing scene that later, no one will admit to being part of.

 

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7 minutes ago, Hitchhiker said:

God, I miss the screaming! 

I don't think I could actually get one to fit on my Viper.

I don’t think the class rules prohibit allowing ex-wives to crew.  If you don’t have one available, maybe the crew does. That should be close enough!

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17 minutes ago, Monkey said:

I don’t think the class rules prohibit allowing ex-wives to crew.  If you don’t have one available, maybe the crew does. That should be close enough!

Me: "911? I've got a screaming wife who won't calm down."

911: "That's your problem, buddy. You gotta car? Get in and don't stop until you're 100% sure she couldn't possibly chase you that far."

That's a paraphrase of an old friend while he was collecting his daughters for joint custody weekend. The ex was doing her routine including standing on the hood of his car, going fully ballistic. Frank looked calmly over at the new partner of this treasure and said, "She's all yours now, buddy..."

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21 hours ago, LB 15 said:

  What this pandemic has showed is that there are many useless 'professions' that contribute fuck all to the greater good.

 

 

ah, the B-Ark crew..

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6 hours ago, Alan H said:

Pro crew for the America's Cup? Fine. 

But $50,000 for 4-6 days of racing a J-70?  That's just sick.  It's wasteful and  grossly over-the-top...in-your-face...arrogantly hyper-consumer.  The bitch is that it's  not just once a year. It's 8 - 10 times a year:  The Atlantic Regionals, the Southern Championships, the Pacific Coast Championships, the Nationals, the North Americans...

These guys are spending $400,000 a fucking year, TO RACE A J-70.
I'm sorry, but not only can I not even conceive of that, I think it's morally WRONG. How the hell are we supposed to "sell" sailing and sail racing when any outsider can point to that sort of gross spending?  When the USA is confronting a homeless problem of overwhelming proportions, when people are revolting in the streets for justice, when that guy could spent one twentieth of that amount of money and still have a blast, and put the rest to doing some good in the world,  how is $400,000 a year to race fucking J-70 defensible in any way?

Ugh. ~Rant~...

Although I know people who count funding social justice projects among their expensive hobbies, I'm not as certain as you are that encouraging people whose preferred recreation is a highly competitive sport to redeploy their funds into social justice projects or politics would create a net positive impact for the world.

On the other hand, when an oil well catches on fire they throw dynamite in to consume all of the oxygen so combustion stops, so maybe I'm completely wrong.

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What's the obsession with new boats? A well maintained boat doesn't deteriorate like a Camry or a pair of khakis. The reason new boats aren't being built is because they aren't substantially better or different than used boats. It is a similar reason to the upgrade cycle for smart phones. There was a HUGE difference between a Motorola flip phone and an iPhone. There was a BIG difference between and iPhone and an iPhone3. What is the difference between an iPhone 7 and an iPhone8? Who knows? Who cares? They both make phone calls and send texts and take pictures.

Boats have similarly approached the point where a new boat doesn't do anything appreciable different than a used boat. A boat is a tool for either racing or cruising or some combination of the two. A new 40 footer doesn't do anything fundamentally different than a Cal40. You can race it or you can cruise it and have a ball doing either. Why buy something new for 10x the price? It might be faster, but if your objective is to get from point A to point B as rapidly as possible you have chosen the wrong sport.

I do tactics on someone else's J105 because it has a healthy one design fleet while the Lapworth 36 class has slowly evaporated, but my 1965 wooden 36 footer is more fun to race, a better boat to cruise and prettier. How is that progress?

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10 hours ago, SF Woody Sailor said:

What's the obsession with new boats?

Some day those new boats will be old boats.   And the old boats will be really old.   If no one buys new boats there won't be as good of supply of old boats in the future.

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17 hours ago, coyotepup said:

I dunno man.  If you can find a brand-new boat over, say, 32 feet, for less than $175K, I'd be pretty surprised.  That's the price of a new C&C 101, or thereabouts.  A new J/111 has got to be $200K+, easy.  In 1984 dollars that (the $175K) is about $70K.  Was a Tartan 10 or C&C 35 a $70K boat?  Well, I never bought one brand new, but again, I'd be shocked to hear so.

Sisu points out that the durability of old boats kind of hurts the market for that kind of cheap, brand-new daysailer.  True enough.  But eventually the world is gonna run out of old Catalinas, and nobody will want to make new ones.

Well, this got me digging in my files. I found my invoice for my 1987 Catalina 30 tall rig America’s Cup edition. Dated 1/26/1987. From Jack Dorsey Yachts in San Diego. I’m shocked it’s been 33 years. 

$55,000 plus tax. Included main, 135, sobstad 3/4oz spinnaker, spinnaker pole, sheets, dodger, bottom paint, VHF, signet speed and depth and commissioning.

I still use this boat almost every week in our sailing academy. Just had it surveyed, came in at $30,000.  

So a C&C 35 in 1987? $70,000? Maybe. 

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8 minutes ago, no shoes said:

Well, this got me digging in my files. I found my invoice for my 1987 Catalina 30 tall rig America’s Cup edition. Dated 1/26/1987. From Jack Dorsey Yachts in San Diego. I’m shocked it’s been 33 years. 

$55,000 plus tax. Included main, 135, sobstad 3/4oz spinnaker, spinnaker pole, sheets, bottom paint, VHF, signet speed and depth and commissioning.

I still use this boat almost every week in our sailing academy. Just had it surveyed, came in at $30,000.  

So a C&C 35 in 1987? $70,000? Maybe. 

So you have received 33 years of use from the boat for depreciation of $25k? That seems like a great deal.

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22 minutes ago, slap said:

Some day those new boats will be old boats.   And the old boats will be really old.   If no one buys new boats there won't be as good of supply of old boats in the future.

That would be a problem if there were not enough used boats to go around. That seems like the least of our troubles.

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2 minutes ago, SF Woody Sailor said:

So you have received 33 years of use from the boat for depreciation of $25k? That seems like a great deal.

Commercial use. I’ve made my living from it and a few others. I think it’s been an overwhelming good deal. There is no part of it I haven’t had in my hands. I’ve purchased about 12 suits of sails. 4 interiors, countless bottom jobs,  worn out 3 steering cables, 3 roller furlers, painted the deck 3 times. She still looks really good. I’m sailing her today. 

I go to the boat show with permission from the accountant to get a new 30 footer every year. I just walk away shaking my head at the new boats. Paint the deck and order new sails. 

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Alan - Ok you have convinced me. We need at least 2 j70s.  One west coast and one in Europe.  

The Italian sailing scene is atleast worth 10k a week. 

 

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5 minutes ago, SF Woody Sailor said:

That would be a problem if there were not enough used boats to go around. That seems like the least of our troubles.

My guess is that there are more boats that end up getting destroyed or neglected beyond repair (zombies!) than there are new boats being sold.  Unless sailing really dies off there will be a significant shortage of good used boats in 15 years or so.

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36 minutes ago, no shoes said:

I go to the boat show with permission from the accountant to get a new 30 footer every year. I just walk away shaking my head at the new boats.

I always have the same experience - new boats just seem more like RV's than sailing machines - I have trouble identifying with them. 

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38 minutes ago, Black Jack said:

Alan - Ok you have convinced me. We need at least 2 j70s.  One west coast and one in Europe.  

The Italian sailing scene is atleast worth 10k a week. 

 

You don't need to spend anything like $10k a week to enjoy sailing a J70.

And the idea that its not fun because there are pros at the top of the fleet is total BS.

I love sailing my J70, it cost me less than a new car  (as a result I drive an old car :) ), and my annual costs are pretty reasonable, (I'd be surprised if I spend $10 for my entire season)

Right now there are decent used boats on the market and a good sized local fleet, what's not to love.

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1 minute ago, gspot said:

I always have the same experience - new boats just seem more like RV's than sailing machines - I have trouble identifying with them. 

Yeah, this is a massive generalization, but new boats seem either designed to appeal to non-sailors as easy-to-operate floating RVs, or performance racers, in line with the OP's thesis.

If I had the money, the only new boats that really appeal to me are the retro-styled Morrises - I need something for casual but competitive racing first, daysailing second, and cruising third and I want to look good doing it. But why buy that when you can get the genuine article (an early 60s Alberg or Shaw design) for something like 0.08% the price?

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14 hours ago, SF Woody Sailor said:

What's the obsession with new boats? A well maintained boat doesn't deteriorate like a Camry or a pair of khakis. The reason new boats aren't being built is because they aren't substantially better or different than used boats. It is a similar reason to the upgrade cycle for smart phones. There was a HUGE difference between a Motorola flip phone and an iPhone. There was a BIG difference between and iPhone and an iPhone3. What is the difference between an iPhone 7 and an iPhone8? Who knows? Who cares? They both make phone calls and send texts and take pictures.

Boats have similarly approached the point where a new boat doesn't do anything appreciable different than a used boat. A boat is a tool for either racing or cruising or some combination of the two. A new 40 footer doesn't do anything fundamentally different than a Cal40. You can race it or you can cruise it and have a ball doing either. Why buy something new for 10x the price? It might be faster, but if your objective is to get from point A to point B as rapidly as possible you have chosen the wrong sport.

I do tactics on someone else's J105 because it has a healthy one design fleet while the Lapworth 36 class has slowly evaporated, but my 1965 wooden 36 footer is more fun to race, a better boat to cruise and prettier. How is that progress?

Well, I mostly agree. My boat was built in 1983. Old.  Still sails great.

But that doesn't mean that there's nothing new.  A Santana 22 is a great boat, and loads of fun to sail but it's a significantly different experience from a J-70. Yet they're both 22 foot sailboats.

The way I perceive it is....A Santana 22 costs $3000 to buy, and the yearly cost to race it is about $4500. Figure $200 a month, 12 months out of the year for the berth- $2400. $400 a year for insurance, $100 for the PHRF Certificate.  I happen to sail in the SSS, so $130 a year for the Club membership. If I buy one new sail a year, that's about $1,000. If I replace two major lines on the boat (sheets, halyards) a year, that's $100. It all adds up to about $4500.

The J-70 will cost me $35,000.  That's ten times more than the Santana 22. The operating costs will be about the same, though maybe a tich more 'cause I'll have to buy more sails to stay competetive, so call it $5500.

Will I have TEN TIMES as much fun on the J-70, as on the Santana 22?  No.   Does the J-70 allow me to do something specific, that I really want to do, that the Santana 22 does not?  MAYBE.....maybe. Not  me, personally..but for some guys, yes.

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3 hours ago, slap said:

My guess is that there are more boats that end up getting destroyed or neglected beyond repair (zombies!) than there are new boats being sold.  Unless sailing really dies off there will be a significant shortage of good used boats in 15 years or so.

That assumes that boats have a useful life of 15 years or so which is totally wrong. The average age of cars on the road now is 14 years for goodness sake, and cars wear out!

A 50 year old Cal40 for $56,000 like this https://www.latitude38.com/advert/40ft-ft-cal-40-1969/ is probably as good or better than the day it was new. You could get a brand new Beneteau 40 for what, ten times as much money? And it won't be as good.

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2 minutes ago, Alan H said:

Well, I mostly agree. My boat was built in 1983. Old.  Still sails great.

But that doesn't mean that there's nothing new.  A Santana 22 is a great boat, and loads of fun to sail but it's a significantly different experience from a J-70. Yet they're both 22 foot sailboats.

The way I perceive it is....A Santana 22 costs $3000 to buy, and the yearly cost to race it is about $4500. Figure $200 a month, 12 months out of the year for the berth- $2400. $400 a year for insurance, $100 for the PHRF Certificate.  I happen to sail in the SSS, so $130 a year for the Club membership. If I buy one new sail a year, that's about $1,000. If I replace two major lines on the boat (sheets, halyards) a year, that's $100. It all adds up to about $4500.

The J-70 will cost me $35,000.  That's ten times more than the Santana 22. The operating costs will be about the same, though maybe a tich more 'cause I'll have to buy more sails to stay competetive, so call it $5500.

Will I have TEN TIMES as much fun on the J-70, as on the Santana 22?  No.   Does the J-70 allow me to do something specific, that I really want to do, that the Santana 22 does not?  MAYBE.....maybe. Not  me, personally..but for some guys, yes.

The running cost analysis is a canard because you can spend as much or as little as you want depending on how competitive you want to be in which fleet.

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2 hours ago, JohnMB said:

You don't need to spend anything like $10k a week to enjoy sailing a J70.

And the idea that its not fun because there are pros at the top of the fleet is total BS.

I love sailing my J70, it cost me less than a new car  (as a result I drive an old car :) ), and my annual costs are pretty reasonable, (I'd be surprised if I spend $10 for my entire season)

Right now there are decent used boats on the market and a good sized local fleet, what's not to love.

Hey JohnMB, I'm not hating on the J-70.  I've never been on one, they look like all sorts of fun to sail.  There's a J-80 on my dock and I think that would be a total riot to sail.  Not hating on the J's at all, and I'm glad you have fun with yours.

I'm just shocked and disgusted by a mindset that says  that someone HAS to spend  $50,000 A WEEK to be competitive in a fleet of 22 foot sailboats. There are apparently people who think that, and not only to they thin that....they do it, multiple times every year.  I think that's a screwed up set of priorities and a distorted view of the world..

This is news to me...I don't think this way; I can't afford to think this way and even if I could afford it, I wouldn't because my conscience wouldn't let me blow THAT MUCH MONEY on something as unimportant as racing a small sailboat.  Racing is fun!  Racing is satisfying!  Racing is not the be-all of existence.

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Anyway, clearly there's a market for whatever-the-hot-boat-is to sell craploads of them, and get really rich guys to spend mind-altering amounts of money on gear, and airline flights for professionals to come in and tell owners what to do.  The thing thing to do is to hire really smart marketing people to SELL the Next Hot Boat.

 

whether it's 52 feet long or 22 feet long.  I have no doubt that people who will spend $50,000 a week to race a 22 foot sailboat will still exist in 15 years.

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23 minutes ago, Alan H said:

Will I have TEN TIMES as much fun on the J-70, as on the Santana 22?  No.

Actually most sailors would.

I have to say, I'm getting a kick out this analysis coming from a guy who can make pennies bleed.

(Back to lurking.)

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2 hours ago, SF Woody Sailor said:

That assumes that boats have a useful life of 15 years or so which is totally wrong. The average age of cars on the road now is 14 years for goodness sake, and cars wear out!

A 50 year old Cal40 for $56,000 like this https://www.latitude38.com/advert/40ft-ft-cal-40-1969/ is probably as good or better than the day it was new. You could get a brand new Beneteau 40 for what, ten times as much money? And it won't be as good.

No, it's just that the boats that are (as an example) 40+ years old will be 55+ years old in 15 years.   And how many of them will sink, be damaged by storms or fire, or decay into being zombies in 15 years?    New sailboat sales are way down to the point that the total number of sailboats (usable or fixable) are probably decreasing every year.

Not every old boat is as cherished as the Cal 40.   Anyone know how many were built and how many are still around?

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3 hours ago, BobJ said:

Actually most sailors would.

I have to say, I'm getting a kick out this analysis coming from a guy who can make pennies bleed.

(Back to lurking.)

Agreed.  My enjoyment sailing a J/70 would be infinitely greater than a Santana 22, since I would get zero enjoyment out of sailing one.  The J/70 is clearly money better to spent (to me). 

Sailing and boats are so personal, it is really hard to generalize, and nearly impossible to project your feeling about boats to what others feel about their boats.  We recently bought a 7 year old boat.  We could have spent 1/10th of that on a sailboat that technically sails, but I wouldn't have enjoyed that 1/10th boat at all, and we are enjoying the heck out of our new boat.  We've raced it 23 times since May 1st.  Races ranging from 15 minute buoy races to two 100-milers.  Notably, none of the boats we race around the buoys did the 100 milers.  We have the perfect boat for us and enjoy sailing it immensely, so for us the new boat has been worth every penny.  

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6 hours ago, Roleur said:

Agreed.  My enjoyment sailing a J/70 would be infinitely greater than a Santana 22, since I would get zero enjoyment out of sailing one.  The J/70 is clearly money better to spent (to me). 

Sailing and boats are so personal, it is really hard to generalize, and nearly impossible to project your feeling about boats to what others feel about their boats.  We recently bought a 7 year old boat.  We could have spent 1/10th of that on a sailboat that technically sails, but I wouldn't have enjoyed that 1/10th boat at all, and we are enjoying the heck out of our new boat.  We've raced it 23 times since May 1st.  Races ranging from 15 minute buoy races to two 100-milers.  Notably, none of the boats we race around the buoys did the 100 milers.  We have the perfect boat for us and enjoy sailing it immensely, so for us the new boat has been worth every penny.  

Talking about J boats should be added to calling someone a Pedo and outing as flickable offences. 

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On 8/18/2020 at 11:38 AM, Alan H said:

1.  Mega big-bucks racers, whether it be monohulls or multi's.  We're talking  $500,000-plus boats and $100,000 a year campaigns.  Whatever the successors to the TP 52's are, stuff like that.

I have stopped here. $100K per campaign.

There are 600 milers where that $100k doesn't even cover wages/airfares and that same crew on training day one.. bend on the new $350k main. Those $ at the front end has been leaking down the LOA scale for years and will continue to do so.

Then there is the budget to get the Bowman laid with something half decent that doesn't make him and everyone else recycle their lunch. :lol:

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:lol:

On 8/18/2020 at 2:45 PM, astro said:

I disagree.  In 10 to 15 no one with the money will want to be seen generating that much CO2 and being that ostentatious.  The public and shareholder pressure will be too much.

The time for that shit has passed.  Those who plan to service that market will be struggling to find clients.

"..no one with the money will want to be seen generating that much CO2"

So no more clients like Vestas wind who have taken their cheque book around twice...well 1 1/2 times if you add in a fucking reef..then one third of last Volvo fleet that were all environmentally funded campaigns.

and 

will want to avoid; "being that ostentatious."

So the human condition of "asperation and get ahead" will be dead and we are all going to be living shoeboxes....the wealthy ones in a rainwater tank in a rubbish dump. :lol:

 

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On 8/19/2020 at 7:00 AM, Alan H said:

....How the hell are we supposed to "sell" sailing and sail racing when any outsider can point to that sort of gross spending?  When the USA is confronting a homeless problem of overwhelming proportions, when people are revolting in the streets for justice,..

Never thought of that. That orange cunt who lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Av has also helped kill off big boat racing by making everyone feel really bad. :lol:

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

Talking about J boats should be added to calling someone a Pedo and outing as flickable offences. 

It's turned into a circle jerk alright.

NTTAWWT

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Ah, Bob, my tendency to thriftiness was ingrained in me early on.

My mom wouldn't let dad buy a sailboat. So as much as he loved to sail, "other things" were more important, and it was only after I was out of college that she actually went along with him joining the Navy sailing association in Monterey, so that he could rent a boat now and then. All those years, decades....she died and they had a crapload of $$ in various accounts, and dad only sailed maybe a dozen times in all those years. He took me and Joan out on Monterey Bay once on one of the Navy club boats.

I married a lass who is incredibly focused on "saving for retirement' so every dollar I could devote to sailing had to deliver a dollars worth of value. Now that retirement is just a couple of years away and the retirement accounts are more or less where where we planned them to be, she's easing up a bit. However, the patterns are ingrained now.  That's why I get hot about  ...."certain things"....which I will refrain from mentioning.

Besides, I LIKE making stuff like rudders.

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