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Trump Will Win. Discuss.

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The biggest factor in Trump not winning, is Hillary is not in the race. If she were, his chances would be much higher.  Also, he cannot depend on the working man like he did last time, he has pretty much destroyed his own chances with that class. In 2016, a lot of people were complacent and didn't give Trump much of a chance, today those voters won't risk staying at home.

More than 2 1/2 million old people have died in the last four years, I don't know how that translates, but it seems like an important figure. Same with covid, you know that a lot of older Americans that supported Trump are now dead, but it remains an unknown how those people would have voted. Conversely, a large number of young people have reached voting age and I think the traditional vote for that group goes to the Democrats.

The most important factor, is Trump still has a formidable army of voters, however, this time he has lost the rust belt (so far), and the economy and covid will figure prominently in a lot of votes.

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I think the media is doing everything possible to keep the suspense up.  If we all know the ending nobody will read or buy the book.

It was a dark and Stormy night.    The End.

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7 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

The biggest factor in Trump not winning, is Hillary is not in the race. If she were, his chances would be much higher.  Also, he cannot depend on the working man like he did last time, he has pretty much destroyed his own chances with that class. In 2016, a lot of people were complacent and didn't give Trump much of a chance, today those voters won't risk staying at home.

More than 2 1/2 million old people have died in the last four years, I don't know how that translates, but it seems like an important figure. Same with covid, you know that a lot of older Americans that supported Trump are now dead, but it remains an unknown how those people would have voted. Conversely, a large number of young people have reached voting age and I think the traditional vote for that group goes to the Democrats.

The most important factor, is Trump still has a formidable army of voters, however, this time he has lost the rust belt (so far), and the economy and covid will figure prominently in a lot of votes.

It will all boil down to turn out.  If the young voters turn out Biden wins.  If not Trump stays in office.   

They couldn’t find time to vote for Bernie,  who they love. 


Will they find time to vote out Trump, who they hate?  

 

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2 minutes ago, The Joker said:

It will all boil down to turn out.  If the young voters turn out Biden wins.  If not Trump stays in office.   

They couldn’t find time to vote for Bernie,  who they love. 


Will they find time to vote out Trump, who they hate?  

 

:lol: olds hate trump too now dumbfuck.

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4 minutes ago, The Joker said:

It will all boil down to turn out.  If the young voters turn out Biden wins.  If not Trump stays in office.   

They couldn’t find time to vote for Bernie,  who they love. 


Will they find time to vote out Trump, who they hate?  

 

Nope, like last time, it’s up to women. They voted for trump last time. Will they do it again?

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not up to women. up to people of color in swing states of all ages.

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I think it could be a Democratic landslide.  I don't like either party controlling both the Exec and the Legislative, but can live with it after the last 3.5 yrs. 

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6 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

I think it could be a Democratic landslide.  I don't like either party controlling both the Exec and the Legislative, but can live with it after the last 3.5 yrs. 

I'll hope for a landslide. The question I have is where are all the criminals in Trump's sphere going to go that doesn't have an extradition treaty with the US? Do you really think Barr will hang around to be held responsible for his corruption?

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Democracy is messy. Fundamentals that allow money to drive legislation need very careful scrutiny. Neither of the two parties is without gross baggage on this. I think it the third rail the media is not wanting to expose. I am encouraged by the possibility of flipping the senate and retiring corrupt McConell. With a democratic House and Senate even if trump wins his hands will tied and only the really stupid will accept "acting" secretary of anything appointment. Our democracy is threatened as never before.

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1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

not up to women. up to people of color in swing states of all ages.

Reading the tea leaves of the DNC, I’d say that it’s also up to progressive turnout. I thought the convention, particularly the roll call of the states, highlighted POC and progressives which frankly surprised me, pleasantly.

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I  agree with Olsonist on this one - I think the progressive turnout is going to decide it.

The good news for the democrats is I think it's going to be a low bar - the die hard RNC voter will still vote but the reality is that Trump himself isn't "new and shiny" anymore.   Frankly, I think the Republicans are going to lose the Senate, losing CO, ME, and NC, while only picking up Alabama.  They may even lose Iowa and Montana. 

 

 

 

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I have spent most of my adult life in court rooms.  Lawyers matter much less than the facts.  Jurors/voters can smell bullshit a mile away.  Trump loses because people have a survival instinct.

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23 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

I  agree with Olsonist on this one - I think the progressive turnout is going to decide it.

The good news for the democrats is I think it's going to be a low bar - the die hard RNC voter will still vote but the reality is that Trump himself isn't "new and shiny" anymore.   Frankly, I think the Republicans are going to lose the Senate, losing CO, ME, and NC, while only picking up Alabama.  They may even lose Iowa and Montana. 

 

What is the maximum likely Democrat gain in the Senate? If it's less than 18, Trump is still unimpeachable..... assuming he keeps the loyalty of the remaining Team R. If he loses enough of them, he's gone and on his way to jail.

If Trump wins (or "wins") and the Senate flips by 4, then we see a power struggle as the Congress tries to re-assert all the authority it gave up to the past five Presidents. Bear in mind that in order to fill any Supreme Court seats, Trump needs to pick somebody the Senate will approve which makes Moscow Mitch and a majority of 1 a necessity.

Personally I think it's most likely that Trump will retain the Presidency either by actually winning the E.C. or by fuckery; and the Democrats may gain a few Senate seats but not necessarily a majority.

- DSK

 

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3 hours ago, The Joker said:

It will all boil down to turn out.  If the young voters turn out Biden wins.  If not Trump stays in office.   

They couldn’t find time to vote for Bernie,  who they love. 


Will they find time to vote out Trump, who they hate?  

 

I heard an NPR interview on this subject just the other day and they said Bernie voters were highly disappointed in the convention and were not terribly motivated to come out for Joe.  That's not a good sign.  Personally, I hope they suck it up and come out anyway.  But it's not encouraging.

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Trump has paths to victory still, in order of probability.  They work well in combination. 

 

  1. Putin or the FBI can find some surprise dirt just as mail in voting gets going in earnest.   This worked well last time, even if it was nothing new and a Democrat controlled the FBI    There wasn’t time to realize it was a retread.
  2. Well constructed CGI dirt is created and publicized, to make up for lack of the real thing,
  3. Republicans are able to leverage control of most states to strategically minimize voting.   This is obviously occurring by trimming registers, closing stations, affecting resource distribution, etc.   it may not be enough this time.
  4. I believe several militias are convinced their presence will be needed at urban polling stations in November, to keep ‘illegals’ from voting.    This is a well tested method in the south.   It works best with elected sheriffs, but a lot of blue lives matter more cops are upset and might look the other way.    I’ll be amazed if it’s not attempted, but have hope police will disperse most of them.
  5. False flag operations and stupidity by Trump haters are hard to tell apart.   Election results can be tied up in the courts much longer then the hanging chad thing.    Delay may even be possible until the next Supreme Court Justice is needed.  
  6. Trump brand vaccine is unveiled in October.   It’s proven a failure in December.
  7. Does anybody really believe Speaker a Pelosi would be allowed to succeed VP Pence or President Trump because the election cannot be certified.?    Not over Sen Moscow Mitch’s dead body,     Trump Attorney Barr would impose emergency control to protect Presidential Power from legislative ‘overreach’.    The Capitol Police would be badly outgunned.

On a negative note, none of these paths involve appealing to a wide swath of the electorate.
On a positive note, I learned my deep red Republican county headquarters may not exist.   The traditional host, a local businessman, died last year.   It seems he provided storefront headquarters so long there is some confusion on whether anybody thought about looking for a successor.  

 

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6 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

I heard an NPR interview on this subject just the other day and they said Bernie voters were highly disappointed in the convention and were not terribly motivated to come out for Joe.  That's not a good sign.  Personally, I hope they suck it up and come out anyway.  But it's not encouraging.

:lol:

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7 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

I heard an NPR interview on this subject just the other day and they said Bernie voters were highly disappointed in the convention and were not terribly motivated to come out for Joe.  That's not a good sign.  Personally, I hope they suck it up and come out anyway.  But it's not encouraging.

The millennials won’t oder pizza if it involves human phone interaction.   Why would we expect them to vote?   

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High voter turnout in urban areas is key for the Democrats. I spend a lot of time in rural counties, and pro-trump, old guard Republicans exist in shocking numbers. These are not stupid people. It takes brains to run a farm or a ranch, bur despite all the evidence of Trump's corruption, they cannot, will not bring themselves to vote anything but a straight GOP ticket. Part of it is sheer stubbornness, refusing to admit there are severe issues with their long-time party affiliation. A lot of it is the fear stoked by the lying Limbaughs and Hannities of the world - Biden's gonna take our guns! And, a big part of is just plain, old, ignorant racism.

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DD2C47BC-CE1C-4A64-AEF8-87DA2DFD761A.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

If Trump wins (or "wins") and the Senate flips by 4, then we see a power struggle as the Congress tries to re-assert all the authority it gave up to the past five Presidents. 

I don't see this happening...at. all.  Both parties in Congress are too fucking spineless to reassert authority and take power back from the POTUS.  And they frankly don't really want it.  Because with authority comes responsibility.  And they don't want the responsibility for making the tough decisions that a POTUS can get away with.  Because that vote will be held over them for the rest of their short careers.  No - Congress and the Senate in particular, LOVE having the POTUS take the heat for the really tough calls.  Declaration of War???  Authorization for use of force???  Cut the DOD budget, YGTBFKM!  :lol:

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21 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

If Trump wins (or "wins") and the Senate flips by 4, then we see a power struggle as the Congress tries to re-assert all the authority it gave up to the past five Presidents.

And as a follow-on question.  What if the Senate does flip and Biden is elected???  Is congress going to re-assert all the authority it gave up to the past 5 Presidents?  Or is giving up authority to the POTUS only bad, sometimes?

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1 minute ago, Burning Man said:

I don't see this happening...at. all.  Both parties in Congress are too fucking spineless to reassert authority and take power back from the POTUS.  And they frankly don't really want it.  Because with authority comes responsibility.  And they don't want the responsibility for making the tough decisions that a POTUS can get away with.  Because that vote will be held over them for the rest of their short careers.  No - Congress and the Senate in particular, LOVE having the POTUS take the heat for the really tough calls.  Declaration of War???  Authorization for use of force???  Cut the DOD budget, YGTBFKM!  :lol:

You’re not wrong, but Steam’s scenario might be the best scenario for democracy.   The POTUS has grown too powerful,   Even President Obama was too eager to use your blowing things up service, with oversight prevented by secrecy.   How can a bombing mission be a military secret after the fact, unless the drone blew up the wrong target?   Obstruction forced multiple executive decisions, the alternative being no government.   

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28 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

I heard an NPR interview on this subject just the other day and they said Bernie voters were highly disappointed in the convention and were not terribly motivated to come out for Joe.  That's not a good sign.  Personally, I hope they suck it up and come out anyway.  But it's not encouraging.

That would be a difficult conclusion to come to if you actually watched the convention and moreover if you actually were a Bernie supporter.  But thank you for your concern. Myself, a Warren supporter, I was pleasantly surprised by the level of progressive representation and the respect given to Bernie. I'm curious exactly who it was that NPR was interviewing. Was his name Karl?

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15 minutes ago, Remodel said:

High voter turnout in urban areas is key for the Democrats. I spend a lot of time in rural counties, and pro-trump, old guard Republicans exist in shocking numbers. These are not stupid people. It takes brains to run a farm or a ranch, bur despite all the evidence of Trump's corruption, they cannot, will not bring themselves to vote anything but a straight GOP ticket. Part of it is sheer stubbornness, refusing to admit there are severe issues with their long-time party affiliation. A lot of it is the fear stoked by the lying Limbaughs and Hannities of the world - Biden's gonna take our guns! And, a big part of is just plain, old, ignorant racism.

Person of Color, Puh-lease!  Do you think black urban voters will or ever would vote anything other than the straight dem ticket despite decades of failed Dem policies that have ensured generational poverty?  Part of it is sheer stubbornness, refusing to admit there are severe issues with their long-time party affiliation.  

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4 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

That would be a difficult conclusion to come to if you actually watched the convention and if you actually were a Bernie supporter. Myself, a Warren supporter, I was surprised by the level of progressive representation and respect given to Bernie. I'm curious exactly who it was that NPR was interviewing.

I'll try to find the clip....  I'm just telling you what I heard.

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4 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Person of Color, Puh-lease!  Do you think black urban voters will or ever would vote anything other than the straight dem ticket despite decades of failed Dem policies that have ensured generational poverty?  Part of it is sheer stubbornness, refusing to admit there are severe issues with their long-time party affiliation.  

There were a lot more white people protesting to protect black lives then black people joining the militias.   That says something.   There is of course another somewhat unlikely Republican Presidential candidate, to refute your blanket statement.

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8 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Person of Color, Puh-lease!  Do you think black urban voters will or ever would vote anything other than the straight dem ticket despite decades of failed Dem policies that have ensured generational poverty?  Part of it is sheer stubbornness, refusing to admit there are severe issues with their long-time party affiliation.  

:lol: that’s the jeffreaux bubble bullshit :lol:

goddamn you are a stubborn ignorant fuck.

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19 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

And as a follow-on question.  What if the Senate does flip and Biden is elected???  Is congress going to re-assert all the authority it gave up to the past 5 Presidents?  Or is giving up authority to the POTUS only bad, sometimes?

FWIW, I think the democrats are going to win the presidency.. and the senate.. and the house.  The tenor of the media will immediately change.  From 94% negative, it'll flip to sunshine and happy days. 

The problem is that ( a) COVID will still be here ( b) a vaccine won't and ( c) the financial state of the world will still be in the shiter.  Biden is going to be in a rough spot- for economic growth, the country needs activity but for a service based economy, COVID makes that really tough.  He's already said he'll 'recast' the response - meaning more shut downs and more economic pain.  The death count will continue since the media still has advertisement time to sell.  Wall Street will still want the 'COVID amnesty bill' to free them from litigation.  My GUESS is that gets passed in the lame duck.  The airlines will be in a shambles.  Rail traffic will be in shambles.  Higher and secondary education will be in shambles.  The shit-storm of unpaid bills will be coming due.  In essence, just like the 2008 financial crisis, the democrats are going to win just in time to clean up the mess... again.

To your point, will congress want to 'reassert' its authority?  FUCK no...    They'll pin it all on the guy who lost the election (Trump) and the guy who's going to retire in 4 or 8 years.  Biden gets to be the bag man for the greatest clean up job in the history of the world.  All of the stagnation of a world war but none of the manufacturing that goes with it.   Lucky him.

Just my opinion. 

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2 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

  He's already said he'll 'recast' the response - meaning more shut downs and more economic pain. 

Ahh, I see we’ve learned nothing.

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16 minutes ago, Burning Man said:
21 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

That would be a difficult conclusion to come to if you actually watched the convention and if you actually were a Bernie supporter. Myself, a Warren supporter, I was surprised by the level of progressive representation and respect given to Bernie. I'm curious exactly who it was that NPR was interviewing.

I'll try to find the clip....  I'm just telling you what I heard.

This is one.  There were several other similar clips on other broadcasts of NPR.  Not a particularly glowing endorsement from the progressive wing:

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/904601569

Democrats want to fall in love with their candidate and just turning out to be anti-trump is going to lose a lot of young folks who wanted Bernie and AOC.  

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39 minutes ago, Remodel said:

High voter turnout in urban areas is key for the Democrats. I spend a lot of time in rural counties, and pro-trump, old guard Republicans exist in shocking numbers. These are not stupid people. It takes brains to run a farm or a ranch, bur despite all the evidence of Trump's corruption, they cannot, will not bring themselves to vote anything but a straight GOP ticket. Part of it is sheer stubbornness, refusing to admit there are severe issues with their long-time party affiliation. A lot of it is the fear stoked by the lying Limbaughs and Hannities of the world - Biden's gonna take our guns! And, a big part of is just plain, old, ignorant racism.

Then they are stupid people if they can't see through the grifter.

Big difference between this time and last is that in '16 Trump supporters were highly engaged and showed up to vote. Hillary voters were decidedly lacking in enthusiasm. This time it is reversed with the anti-Trump, not particularly pro-Joe, element really fired up.

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23 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

FWIW, I think the democrats are going to win the presidency.. and the senate.. and the house.  The tenor of the media will immediately change.  From 94% negative, it'll flip to sunshine and happy days. 

The problem is that ( a) COVID will still be here ( b) a vaccine won't and ( c) the financial state of the world will still be in the shiter.  Biden is going to be in a rough spot- for economic growth, the country needs activity but for a service based economy, COVID makes that really tough.  He's already said he'll 'recast' the response - meaning more shut downs and more economic pain.  The death count will continue since the media still has advertisement time to sell.  Wall Street will still want the 'COVID amnesty bill' to free them from litigation.  My GUESS is that gets passed in the lame duck.  The airlines will be in a shambles.  Rail traffic will be in shambles.  Higher and secondary education will be in shambles.  The shit-storm of unpaid bills will be coming due.  In essence, just like the 2008 financial crisis, the democrats are going to win just in time to clean up the mess... again.

To your point, will congress want to 'reassert' its authority?  FUCK no...    They'll pin it all on the guy who lost the election (Trump) and the guy who's going to retire in 4 or 8 years.  Biden gets to be the bag man for the greatest clean up job in the history of the world.  All of the stagnation of a world war but none of the manufacturing that goes with it.   Lucky him.

Just my opinion. 

You just made me realize all my Republican ‘just the flu’ friends will have to decide the virus is real overnight, in order to be upset by winter flair ups.   That will be interesting.  
 

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27 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

This is one.  There were several other similar clips on other broadcasts of NPR.  Not a particularly glowing endorsement from the progressive wing:

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/904601569

Democrats want to fall in love with their candidate and just turning out to be anti-trump is going to lose a lot of young folks who wanted Bernie and AOC.  

Yawn. That’s an NPR producer finding three or four contrasting views to politely fill air time. Neither Bernie himself nor AOC were disappointed and I watched many of the speeches and the roll call of the states. I concluded very much the opposite.

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I think Trump has an excellent chance of winning.

Furthermore, every time the radical left berate and refer those who are politically and or ideologically different as “dumb” they do nothing more than strengthen the resolve of those fence sitters on the right to go the polls.

 

 

Keep it up, obviously you lot didn’t learn much from the last election.

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2 hours ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

Then they are stupid people if they can't see through the grifter.

Big difference between this time and last is that in '16 Trump supporters were highly engaged and showed up to vote. Hillary voters were decidedly lacking in enthusiasm. This time it is reversed with the anti-Trump, not particularly pro-Joe, element really fired up.

You clearly haven’t seen all the data that show Trump supporters are way more enthusiastic than those voting for Biden. May have become closer after the convention.  
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/gop-chairwoman-ronna-mcdaniel-enthusiasm-trump-higher-2020-2016/

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/clear-warning-signs-focus-group-shows-joe-biden-s-lack-n1201581

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6 minutes ago, The Joker said:

You clearly haven’t seen all the data that show Trump supporters are way more enthusiastic than those voting for Biden. May have become closer after the convention.  
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/gop-chairwoman-ronna-mcdaniel-enthusiasm-trump-higher-2020-2016/

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/clear-warning-signs-focus-group-shows-joe-biden-s-lack-n1201581

The gateway pundit quoting ronna McDaniel from last month is prime joke content!

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if he wins fake or not, Melania will do us all a favor and take him out,

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6 hours ago, badlatitude said:

The biggest factor in Trump not winning, is Hillary is not in the race. If she were, his chances would be much higher.  Also, he cannot depend on the working man like he did last time, he has pretty much destroyed his own chances with that class. In 2016, a lot of people were complacent and didn't give Trump much of a chance, today those voters won't risk staying at home.

More than 2 1/2 million old people have died in the last four years, I don't know how that translates, but it seems like an important figure. Same with covid, you know that a lot of older Americans that supported Trump are now dead, but it remains an unknown how those people would have voted. Conversely, a large number of young people have reached voting age and I think the traditional vote for that group goes to the Democrats.

The most important factor, is Trump still has a formidable army of voters, however, this time he has lost the rust belt (so far), and the economy and covid will figure prominently in a lot of votes.

 

I would tend to agree with this opinion, except that the Trumpaloo Morons that I know are even more fired up than last time.  Our Tenant in the garage loft apartment and is otherwise a nice guy, has his TV on Fox News 24/7, and he said he would vote for Trump 17 times, if he could.  Ignorant Fox News/Rush Limbaugh "Moonies"!!  They drank the Kool-Aid, hook, line and sinker....

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25 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

The gateway pundit quoting ronna McDaniel from last month is prime joke content!

Is that like the "American Thinker" article that someone linked on here somehwhere?  It's right up there with Limbaugh, and the others, it's Racist-Regressive-Rantings!

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7 hours ago, badlatitude said:

The biggest factor in Trump not winning, is Hillary is not in the race. If she were, his chances would be much higher.  Also, he cannot depend on the working man like he did last time, he has pretty much destroyed his own chances with that class. In 2016, a lot of people were complacent and didn't give Trump much of a chance, today those voters won't risk staying at home.

More than 2 1/2 million old people have died in the last four years, I don't know how that translates, but it seems like an important figure. Same with covid, you know that a lot of older Americans that supported Trump are now dead, but it remains an unknown how those people would have voted. Conversely, a large number of young people have reached voting age and I think the traditional vote for that group goes to the Democrats.

The most important factor, is Trump still has a formidable army of voters, however, this time he has lost the rust belt (so far), and the economy and covid will figure prominently in a lot of votes.

Trite but shallow. (Synomonous?) Young workers got a taxcut/raise with the tax act that reduced withholding and increased the personal exemption. That was targeted. It helped poeple with few write offs with a lower tax burden and helped them. It hit some friends. When I point out that their backlog of customers are the people that were helped they sheepishly agree. Your presumption is young people are stupid liberals, not the case I believe. Assuming Florida, again PA, MI and WI will be crucial.  I dont know about PA but both MI and WI have beem served poorly by Dem govs and Mayors and Red will likely rule the day. PA, being a  hunting state will lilely reject the Biden statements that 2A has room for "infringememt".

The wild card will be strongholds left defenseless when Blue Governors and Mayors abandoned the citizens during  All Lives,  including Black lives, Matter riots.

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18 minutes ago, warbird said:

I dont know about PA but both MI and WI have beem served poorly by Dem govs and Mayors and Red will likely rule the day.

Whitmer's approval rating on COVID is in the 70's.  MI will go Biden in a big way.   Book it Danno.  

Any amount you want to lose Warbird, place your bet or STFU.  

The first three words I quoted were the truest you've ever posted.  Might want to bet now because we both know you'll be blind drunk in a few hours.  

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4 hours ago, Burning Man said:
4 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

If Trump wins (or "wins") and the Senate flips by 4, then we see a power struggle as the Congress tries to re-assert all the authority it gave up to the past five Presidents.

And as a follow-on question.  What if the Senate does flip and Biden is elected???  Is congress going to re-assert all the authority it gave up to the past 5 Presidents?  Or is giving up authority to the POTUS only bad, sometimes?

Did I state any judgement on that last item?

You're -very- quick to jump on some imaginary boogie-men... or one might almost call them straw men.

- DSK

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6 hours ago, timber said:

<SNIP>. Our democracy is threatened as never before.

You mean republic. We never were a democracy. Not even on a local basis. Local mafias.

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58 minutes ago, billy backstay said:

 

I would tend to agree with this opinion, except that the Trumpaloo Morons that I know are even more fired up than last time.  Our Tenant in the garage loft apartment and is otherwise a nice guy, has his TV on Fox News 24/7, and he said he would vote for Trump 17 times, if he could.  Ignorant Fox News/Rush Limbaugh "Moonies"!!  They drank the Kool-Aid, hook, line and sinker....

I know a few and they are completely sold on Trump, it is a waste of time to even discuss someone else. Anyone that underestimates them is a fool, they will be out in force on November third.

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2 hours ago, Sea warrior said:

I think Trump has an excellent chance of winning.

Furthermore, every time the radical left berate and refer those who are politically and or ideologically different as “dumb” they do nothing more than strengthen the resolve of those fence sitters on the right to go the polls.

 

 

Keep it up, obviously you lot didn’t learn much from the last election.

Thanks for the wise advise.  I think Biden might be the nominee just for that reason.  "The Lincoln Project" just came out with a new vid that shows Biden working with and praised by McCain.    Maybe that will appeal to the real Republicans that have this weird feeling that Trump isn't a real republican.

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19 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

I know a few and they are completely sold on Trump, it is a waste of time to even discuss someone else. Anyone that underestimates them is a fool, they will be out in force on November third.

Yep

We're headed for some pretty rough times IMHO

- DSK

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1 hour ago, warbird said:

Trite but shallow. (Synomonous?) Young workers got a taxcut/raise with the tax act that reduced withholding and increased the personal exemption. That was targeted. It helped poeple with few write offs with a lower tax burden and helped them. It hit some friends. When I point out that their backlog of customers are the people that were helped they sheepishly agree. Your presumption is young people are stupid liberals, not the case I believe. Assuming Florida, again PA, MI and WI will be crucial.  I dont know about PA but both MI and WI have beem served poorly by Dem govs and Mayors and Red will likely rule the day. PA, being a  hunting state will lilely reject the Biden statements that 2A has room for "infringememt".

The wild card will be strongholds left defenseless when Blue Governors and Mayors abandoned the citizens during  All Lives,  including Black lives, Matter riots.

No one remembers a tax cut when they are on unemployment, and a politician is only as good in people's eyes as the last paycheck.Our economy is in the trash, people are struggling and that is going to cost Donald Trump. His leadership is challenged by the way he has fumbled the pandemic, 230,000 dead by election, who is going to ignore that? I never called young people stupid. Youth tends to favor idealism, which favors Democrats. Trump's cheap attempt to damage the post office is not being viewed favorably by people who depend on the post office. Too many mistakes.

Biden currently leads Trump in five battleground states, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Biden holds a ten point lead over Trump in Wisconsin, a nine point lead in Arizona, an eight point lead in Florida, and a seven point lead in Pennsylvania. https://www.newsweek.com/biden-leads-over-trump-five-battleground-states-much-12-points-poll-1526927

Blue governors are not going to let anyone down 73 days before an election.

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17 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Yep

We're headed for some pretty rough times IMHO

- DSK

I don't know, election time always seems to generate self doubt and weakness. This time it's more important to get involved in any way that you can, it will make a difference.

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#Vote him out.    trump is poison and I will not stop working for every vote I can turn out or change on a local level. 

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Scorpions will decide the vote outcome.

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2 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

Scorpions will decide the vote outcome.

 

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3 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

Scorpions will decide the vote outcome.

Damn straight.  They will Rock you Like a Hurricane!  Or this week, Hurricanes.  

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I think that folks who project  a Trump win are right.  I don't like it, I wish it was different - but the divide in the country makes me question whether we as a a people can get past that.  Id like to think so, but comments in here make me question whether or not folks on the fringe are capable of listening.  I hope they are.

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31 minutes ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

I think that folks who project  a Trump win are right.  I don't like it, I wish it was different - but the divide in the country makes me question whether we as a a people can get past that.  Id like to think so, but comments in here make me question whether or not folks on the fringe are capable of listening.  I hope they are.

My window into prognostication is through my 20-something kids and their friends.  I just watch what they do.  That's why I knew Bernie was in trouble - I watched them go out in 2016 and chant, and caucus, and post pictures, and all kinds of hullabaloo.. but few bothered to register and even fewer bothered to vote.   They were SO busy being 20.  This time I see a lot less of the 'fun stuff' and a lot more of the meaningful stuff.  They're actually - GASP - filling out their voter registration info and getting mail in ballots.  You know they are serious when they actually asked me for a STAMP.  As in an ACTUAL LETTER!!  I kid not when I say that its the first piece of physical mail some of them have sent this year.  That's actually a big deal.

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7 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

My window into prognostication is through my 20-something kids and their friends.  I just watch what they do.  That's why I knew Bernie was in trouble - I watched them go out in 2016 and chant, and caucus, and post pictures, and all kinds of hullabaloo.. but few bothered to register and even fewer bothered to vote.   They were SO busy being 20.  This time I see a lot less of the 'fun stuff' and a lot more of the meaningful stuff.  They're actually - GASP - filling out their voter registration info and getting mail in ballots.  You know they are serious when they actually asked me for a STAMP.  As in an ACTUAL LETTER!!  I kid not when I say that its the first piece of physical mail some of them have sent this year.  That's actually a big deal.

This is what I like about teaching kids SAILING.

It's REAL. Yeah it takes work, it actually takes a lot more work than they know, but with a certain amount of hand-holding and getting them to the point where they understand what the different parts are, how they work, and how to make the boat go where you want... sailing is a f***** blast! They do the rigging, they do the putting away, they even do the cleaning.

The kids I get into the class are somewhat self-selecting for being able to take on that kind of activity, so I don't have any delusions that it's a universal panacea, but I think it could be a lot more widely applied, and help a lot.

But left to themselves and their own sources of reinforcement, why WOULDN'T young adults just sit around yakking and playing on their phones? It's very rewarding and as far as most of them have ever known, there is no necessity to do anything else.

- DSK

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2 hours ago, badlatitude said:

No one remembers a tax cut when they are on unemployment, and a politician is only as good in people's eyes as the last paycheck.Our economy is in the trash, people are struggling and that is going to cost Donald Trump. His leadership is challenged by the way he has fumbled the pandemic, 230,000 dead by election, who is going to ignore that? I never called young people stupid. Youth tends to favor idealism, which favors Democrats. Trump's cheap attempt to damage the post office is not being viewed favorably by people who depend on the post office. Too many mistakes.

Biden currently leads Trump in five battleground states, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Biden holds a ten point lead over Trump in Wisconsin, a nine point lead in Arizona, an eight point lead in Florida, and a seven point lead in Pennsylvania. https://www.newsweek.com/biden-leads-over-trump-five-battleground-states-much-12-points-poll-1526927

Blue governors are not going to let anyone down 73 days before an election.

I appreciate the foreboding doom. However the impending doom is clearly being cast on the pansy lefty Governors and mayors. The outlying districts are clearly asking WTF. IGNORING the possibility of a blue state flop(very real) PA got buttfucked by a far left court decision a few years ago. WI saw the dictatorial failure of a fucking idiot teacher elected Gov and MI remains a 2A state in the face of a "restrictions on 2A Joe Biden" candidate.

OR and WA secure? MD secure? VA?

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4 hours ago, bridhb said:

Thanks for the wise advise.  I think Biden might be the nominee just for that reason.  "The Lincoln Project" just came out with a new vid that shows Biden working with and praised by McCain.    Maybe that will appeal to the real Republicans that have this weird feeling that Trump isn't a real republican.

I see your mistake, you are getting your information from those who tell you how to think...

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20 minutes ago, warbird said:

I appreciate the foreboding doom. However the impending doom is clearly being cast on the pansy lefty Governors and mayors. The outlying districts are clearly asking WTF. IGNORING the possibility of a blue state flop(very real) PA got buttfucked by a far left court decision a few years ago. WI saw the dictatorial failure of a fucking idiot teacher elected Gov and MI remains a 2A state in the face of a "restrictions on 2A Joe Biden" candidate.

OR and WA secure? MD secure? VA?

I'm afraid you are mistaken. I wish you well, but Trump doesn't even meet the basic question of responsible leadership "are you better off now, than you were four years ago." Biden is still ahead and national polls are all in agreement, Trump is in trouble. That doesn't mean you won't win, but it does mean you are on a tough road that you will have significant trouble walking.

There are a lot of dead people that the rest of the nation do not want to be threatened by. The economy means many people may be homeless in the near future, that means being on the street or being in homeless shelters that increase the possibility of death, This is not the America the plurality of Americans want. A week from now we will be able to see if Trump holds any promise, or if he needs to make travel plans out of here. We'll see, soon enough.

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6 minutes ago, Sea warrior said:

I see your mistake, you are getting your information from those who tell you how to think... baby-eating lizard people of the Deep State

FIFY

- DSK

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3 hours ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

I think that folks who project  a Trump win are right.  I don't like it, I wish it was different - but the divide in the country makes me question whether we as a a people can get past that.  Id like to think so, but comments in here make me question whether or not folks on the fringe are capable of listening.  I hope they are.

The irony is thick.

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14 hours ago, fastyacht said:

They've been banging the Willie Horton drum since Trump came down the escalator talking about Mexican rapists.

They're going to have to up their game.

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13 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

I think it could be a Democratic landslide.  I don't like either party controlling both the Exec and the Legislative, but can live with it after the last 3.5 yrs. 

The GOP has shown it does not deserve the chance to gum up the government for at least two years with any branches. Longer, in my view, and I've never been a big fan of having both houses and the executive in the same party.

The abject corruption and complicity in Trump's treasonous and corrupt behavior, combined with their complete and utter inability to govern when they had both houses demonstrates the current crop of GOP legislators is rotten to the core and needs to be defanged and gutted.

The only ideas the GOP has are how to bend the law to stay in power, which is not what the people really need at the moment.

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As I remember, McCain himself proposed a Democrat as his running mate, but as we all know was overruled and got Pailin...

Anyway, in this situation, where a lot of Replicans just can't get themselves to vote for a Democrat (even though many of them must be embarrased over their own stupid candidate), would it make sense for Biden to have chosen a Republican as a running mate?
It could be a strong message of wanting to end the divide and maybe give reps a way to justify their wote for a democrat?

Oh well, maybe it would be suicide? I am a long way from the U.S., but just wondering.

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8 hours ago, Mrleft8 said:

Scorpions will decide the vote outcome.

They're voting for the Winds of Change.

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2 hours ago, ModernViking said:

As I remember, McCain himself proposed a Democrat as his running mate, but as we all know was overruled and got Pailin...

Anyway, in this situation, where a lot of Replicans just can't get themselves to vote for a Democrat (even though many of them must be embarrased over their own stupid candidate), would it make sense for Biden to have chosen a Republican as a running mate?
It could be a strong message of wanting to end the divide and maybe give reps a way to justify their wote for a democrat?

Oh well, maybe it would be suicide? I am a long way from the U.S., but just wondering.

There's no centrist republicans left for him to have chosen from without royally pissing off every democrat.  Hasn't been, for years.

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15 hours ago, Remodel said:

A lot of it is the fear stoked by the lying Limbaughs and Hannities of the world - Biden's gonna take our guns!

So is Biden's gun policy point man, Beto, lying when he says he wants to take (assault weapons, ordinary .22's)?

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18 hours ago, badlatitude said:

The biggest factor in Trump not winning, is Hillary is not in the race. If she were, his chances would be much higher.  Also, he cannot depend on the working man like he did last time, he has pretty much destroyed his own chances with that class. In 2016, a lot of people were complacent and didn't give Trump much of a chance, today those voters won't risk staying at home.

More than 2 1/2 million old people have died in the last four years, I don't know how that translates, but it seems like an important figure. Same with covid, you know that a lot of older Americans that supported Trump are now dead, but it remains an unknown how those people would have voted. Conversely, a large number of young people have reached voting age and I think the traditional vote for that group goes to the Democrats.

The most important factor, is Trump still has a formidable army of voters, however, this time he has lost the rust belt (so far), and the economy and covid will figure prominently in a lot of votes.

Trump hasn’t destroyed his chance with the working man at all.

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10 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

Damn straight.  They will Rock you Like a Hurricane!  Or this week, Hurricanes.  

I’ll take one corona

two hurricanes

and that costs $20.20 

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2 hours ago, Rok Dog said:

Trump hasn’t destroyed his chance with the working man at all.

Sure he has, he promised to make America great again, and here we are, a ruined economy, record setting unemployment, a pandemic that is getting worse, no hope, no infrastructure, hell, we don't even have a wall. Only an idiot follows hope like that.

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15 hours ago, badlatitude said:

Biden currently leads Trump in five battleground states, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Biden holds a ten point lead over Trump in Wisconsin, a nine point lead in Arizona, an eight point lead in Florida, and a seven point lead in Pennsylvania. https://www.newsweek.com/biden-leads-over-trump-five-battleground-states-much-12-points-poll-1526927

I'm gobsmacked that it's even this close at this point.

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5 hours ago, Rok Dog said:

Trump hasn’t destroyed his chance with the working man at all.

Are you being facetious?  Please tell me you're not serious.

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12 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Are you being facetious?  Please tell me you're not serious.

Wow, our voice of the blue collar man Jeffreaux really is this fucking clueless 

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9 hours ago, ModernViking said:

As I remember, McCain himself proposed a Democrat as his running mate, but as we all know was overruled and got Pailin...

Anyway, in this situation, where a lot of Replicans just can't get themselves to vote for a Democrat (even though many of them must be embarrased over their own stupid candidate), would it make sense for Biden to have chosen a Republican as a running mate?
It could be a strong message of wanting to end the divide and maybe give reps a way to justify their wote for a democrat?

Oh well, maybe it would be suicide? I am a long way from the U.S., but just wondering.

Nope. No way no how.

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56 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Are you being facetious?  Please tell me you're not serious.

Lots of racists out there

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6 hours ago, frenchie said:

There's no centrist republicans left for him to have chosen from without royally pissing off every democrat.  Hasn't been, for years.

And it wouldn’t have gotten any Republicans to vote for Biden anyhow.

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Around here Trump is still popular with the working people, but less then 2016.   The number that admit to liking him as dropped, and some believe he is as crooked as a Democrat.   Despite that, he remains popular.   Many others will vote for him, knowing he’s a hustle, since preachers and media assure them Democrats are worse.

He’s a Republican,   Without OSU football and Republicans we got nobody to cheer for.   It ain’t the Browns.

Trump checks.   A lot of people saw a jump in income with the COVID money.   They even got time off for projects or side hustles.     Very few ended up severely infected.

Many around here aren’t racist, but those that are love him.

He’s pro military spending but unlikely to get you deployed.   The military contractors and families know a good thing,

 

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Nationally Trump is polling ~70% approval from whites males w/o a college degree, not much change over the years of his residency. Approval from White women w/o college has dropped slightly.

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2 minutes ago, badlatitude said:
5 minutes ago, Zonker said:

6.5 ft rock ain't that big 

Unless it's going to hit your house.

At Mach 11.

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10 minutes ago, Burning Man said:
13 minutes ago, badlatitude said:
15 minutes ago, Zonker said:

6.5 ft rock ain't that big 

Unless it's going to hit your house.

At Mach 11.

Unless it's made out of some really impressive stuff, a 6 1/2 ft (or 2m) rock is not going survive passing thru the atmosphere.

Plus, it has a less than 1% chance of impacting the Earth (they say)

- DSK

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10 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Unless it's made out of some really impressive stuff, a 6 1/2 ft (or 2m) rock is not going survive passing thru the atmosphere.

Plus, it has a less than 1% chance of impacting the Earth (they say)

- DSK

Yeah, it will make a great pic as it explodes in the atmosphere.

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11 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Unless it's made out of some really impressive stuff, a 6 1/2 ft (or 2m) rock is not going survive passing thru the atmosphere.

Plus, it has a less than 1% chance of impacting the Earth (they say)

- DSK

Trump will claim credit for it missing Earth.  

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