Baldur

Everyone is buying boats...

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3 hours ago, Ajax said:

@fufkin I'm inclined to agree with the catamaran guy.  Those who had plenty of money prior to the pandemic, have plenty of money during the pandemic.  Lower income people who have always had tenuous employment or worked in the service and hospitality industries have been the most affected.

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop with government employment and contracting (at all levels of government).  There has been a huge drop in tax revenues but no corresponding cuts in spending or employment. 

My wife was expecting to have to take several furlough days but state parks have been overwhelmed during the pandemic as people sought safe, outdoor venues for entertainment. In a twist, state parks seem to have taken in enough money to continue funding normal operations and pay. Law enforcement, education, highway maintenance on the other hand... I expect layoffs and big freakin' potholes this winter.

Ajax, I agree with your sentiment re the other shoe dropping, especially in restaurants, hospitality, tourism and certain retail sectors in many economies(Gov’t sector, I’m up in Canada so taxation, spending and support may be different. I know our Gov’t just extended monthly benefits for the next few months that they were planning to wind down. They have changed the wording to ‘recovery’ benefits but are around the same amount as before for those who qualify...bottom line though is this widespread support can’t last forever).

If the first wave was a culling of the restaurant business my fear is that a prolonged second wave, especially through winter in colder climates, could be a decimation. Either widespread rapid testing or a vaccine will have to join other measures to get these sectors back on solid footing...and that’s gotta happen sooner than later.

1 hour ago, Israel Hands said:

The catamaran guy may be overly optimistic about maintaining price though, if the economy turns to crap.  Wealthy people expect good deals for their cash in a downturn.  We figured our waterfront property was worth half in 2009 what it was in 2006. It has recovered but took years to do so, and I would expect it to happen again in a bad downturn.

Israel Hands,

At the beginning of the pandemic, a lot of market pundits suggested that because we entered this pandemic downturn with better over all fundamentals than 2009,  more liquidity in the markets was the lingo, the recovery would be faster. V shaped recovery or something like that. I’m wondering if now that we are looking at a prolonged 1st wave in certain countries(I’d argue the US if you take away the regionality), and a pronounced 2nd wave in a lot of countries who initially stemmed the tide, if these same pundits are willing to consider  1 or 2 more years of economic carnage and revise their outlook.

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23 minutes ago, fufkin said:

Ajax, I agree with your sentiment re the other shoe dropping, especially in restaurants, hospitality, tourism and certain retail sectors in many economies(Gov’t sector, I’m up in Canada so taxation, spending and support may be different. I know our Gov’t just extended monthly benefits for the next few months that they were planning to wind down. They have changed the wording to ‘recovery’ benefits but are around the same amount as before for those who qualify...bottom line though is this widespread support can’t last forever).

If the first wave was a culling of the restaurant business my fear is that a prolonged second wave, especially through winter in colder climates, could be a decimation. Either widespread rapid testing or a vaccine will have to join other measures to get these sectors back on solid footing...and that’s gotta happen sooner than later.

Israel Hands,

At the beginning of the pandemic, a lot of market pundits suggested that because we entered this pandemic downturn with better over all fundamentals than 2009,  more liquidity in the markets was the lingo, the recovery would be faster. V shaped recovery or something like that. I’m wondering if now that we are looking at a prolonged 1st wave in certain countries(I’d argue the US if you take away the regionality), and a pronounced 2nd wave in a lot of countries who initially stemmed the tide, if these same pundits are willing to consider  1 or 2 more years of economic carnage and revise their outlook.

when the market learns what's been going on inside the US Fed and Treasury, the crash that follows is going to be epic, and the reverberations will be felt around the world, for years.

 

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39 minutes ago, fufkin said:

At the beginning of the pandemic, a lot of market pundits suggested that because we entered this pandemic downturn with better over all fundamentals than 2009,  more liquidity in the markets was the lingo, the recovery would be faster. V shaped recovery or something like that. I’m wondering if now that we are looking at a prolonged 1st wave in certain countries(I’d argue the US if you take away the regionality), and a pronounced 2nd wave in a lot of countries who initially stemmed the tide, if these same pundits are willing to consider  1 or 2 more years of economic carnage and revise their outlook.

I have seen reference to this being a K-shaped recovery, with the rich doing well and the poorer getting poorer. It sure looks like it from here.

22 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

when the market learns what's been going on inside the US Fed and Treasury, the crash that follows is going to be epic, and the reverberations will be felt around the world, for years.

 

That could be a nasty.

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So Clean knows what shady shit the Fed and Treasury are "doing" but the market doesn't have a clue?  I find that hard to believe.  I mean, I believe that the Fed is doing shady shit but I don't believe that the market doesn't know.  The markets know, they just don't care. It's all about short term gains and timing when to pull the ejection handle before it all explodes.

@Ishmael  Things do sort of look K-shaped. I would say that *right now* I'm in the center stalk of the K, riding the escalator upwards.  If there is a big, financial implosion or a real employment meltdown that goes far beyond retail and service, then I'll be screwed.

Mentally I'm prepared to lose everything. I did it once when I divorced, I can do it again.

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2 minutes ago, Ajax said:

So Clean knows what shady shit the Fed and Treasury are "doing" but the market doesn't have a clue?  I find that hard to believe.  I mean, I believe that the Fed is doing shady shit but I don't believe that the market doesn't know.  The markets know, they just don't care. It's all about short term gains and timing when to pull the ejection handle before it all explodes.

@Ishmael  Things do sort of look K-shaped. I would say that *right now* I'm in the center stalk of the K, riding the escalator upwards.  If there is a big, financial implosion or a real employment meltdown that goes far beyond retail and service, then I'll be screwed.

Mentally I'm prepared to lose everything. I did it once when I divorced, I can do it again.

Yeah, you'd THINK the markets are omnicient, but in my adult life there have been 4 crashes, if you include the one from earlier this year.


There will be a 5th. The question will be "will the Fed have the gas to counter" and how long it will be.

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My feeling is that the Fed is nearly out of tools. They say they aren't, to calm the markets but I think they've used up most of their tricks to keep the economy floating during the pandemic.

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35 minutes ago, Ajax said:

So Clean knows what shady shit the Fed and Treasury are "doing" but the market doesn't have a clue?  I find that hard to believe.  I mean, I believe that the Fed is doing shady shit but I don't believe that the market doesn't know.  The markets know, they just don't care. It's all about short term gains and timing when to pull the ejection handle before it all explodes.

I don't think Clean claims to know, but anyone with a few functional brain cells knows that there is shady shit going on. It is hard to believe that Trump's pattern of lying and deceit is not influencing the Fed and Treasury. The guy has surrounded himself with crooks his whole life and these same crooks who have been running his business into catastrophe (I mean look at the unbelievable losses!) are running the country now, keeping up an image that all is good, or not as bad as it seems.

 

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The market has a clue - that's why the dollar is so weak right now. And The Fed is out of tools - can't push on a rope. 

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The Treasury for sure, I'm not sure about the Fed. It doesn't matter. Shady shit or no, the country is in dire financial straits due to years of poor governance...that WE voted for.  The bill is going to come due at some point.  In the game of Presidential musical chairs, Trump might just be the unlucky one to have it explode under his ass when he sits down in the chair.

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15 minutes ago, kinardly said:

So, does this mean dump the boat now and buy it back next year? :huh:

Wife and I are preparing for possibility of downsizing to the boat. 

We've downsized from a house to a condo, to a 2bd small apartment, and only use a tiny amount of our stuff on a day to day basis. 

We'd save about 12k per year.

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1 hour ago, Ajax said:

So Clean knows what shady shit the Fed and Treasury are "doing" but the market doesn't have a clue?  I find that hard to believe.  I mean, I believe that the Fed is doing shady shit but I don't believe that the market doesn't know.  The markets know, they just don't care. It's all about short term gains and timing when to pull the ejection handle before it all explodes.

The market is always stupidly optimistic until the big money gets out.  The big money guys are the reason the market is stupidly optimistic until the big money gets out.

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17 minutes ago, Elegua said:

The market has a clue - that's why the dollar is so weak right now. And The Fed is out of tools - can't push on a rope. 

 Euro is $ 1.17.

I would not call that weak.

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It is never as bad as it seems.

All news outlets have always followed their creed: “If it bleeds, it leads!”

Every single market crash in history has already been recovered from.

Urbanization only increases, as it has over the past 12000 years, and probably for the past 3 million years: groups of people can do what individuals cannot.

So I feel confident. It has always worked out very well for me on any time scale longer than a few months, for my entire long life.

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14 minutes ago, carcrash said:

It is never as bad as it seems.

I have quite a few acquaintances who would disagree with that statement thanks to losing everything in 2008-2010.  Many will never recover.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I have quite a few acquaintances who would disagree with that statement thanks to losing everything in 2008-2010.  Many will never recover.

 

 

I was lucky enough to have enough runway to have the 2008 thing just flow over me. People who were 65 in 2008? fucked.

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1 hour ago, AnotherSailor said:

 Euro is $ 1.17.

I would not call that weak.

Eh? And the dollar is expected to continue to soften. This is bad news if you're usually the currency of "last resort", and the world economy is in the pooper.  The US dollar index is down YTD and a lot since May. 

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Nothing wrong with owning assets in a crash, as long as you don’t need to sell them...

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5 hours ago, kinardly said:

So, does this mean dump the boat now and buy it back next year? :huh:

There's a strategy the brokers will heartily endorse!  

Couple more data points in San Diego: friend has two offers on his 42' sailboat after an aggressive listing meant to test the waters since they can't fly here anymore, aren't sure how long this will last, and are growing weary of paying $1k/mo in slip fees plus maintenance, etc.  

My father is interested in a daysailer since I joined the dark side and got a trawler, so I started poking around - I'd told him there are a ton of good plastic boats in the 25-33' range for $5-15k if you look carefully.  Apparently this is not true anymore.  Slim pickings!  

I also noticed that a nice Stevens 50 I was really interested in has still not sold in 9 months.  It's really an ocean-crosser - maybe harder to sell now since people can't really do that anymore.  

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2 hours ago, Elegua said:

Eh? And the dollar is expected to continue to soften. This is bad news if you're usually the currency of "last resort", and the world economy is in the pooper.  The US dollar index is down YTD and a lot since May. 

Look at the numbers of 2008: $1.40 was common. It got close to 1.50. THAT was weak. 1.17 is still holding up the facade of normalcy. 

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Hey, I was only kidding. But I remember buying one of my former boats, thinking I'd stolen it from this nice guy who was a former COB of a major aerospace company and finding myself seriously upside down with my commission only business about six months later. I told myself next time I see the 1%ers dumping discretionary toys I wouldn't take the bait.

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24 minutes ago, AnotherSailor said:

Look at the numbers of 2008: $1.40 was common. It got close to 1.50. THAT was weak. 1.17 is still holding up the facade of normalcy. 

True, but 2008 is the most unfavorable it's gotten in since inception of the EUR. As far as I'm concerned the EUR is a crap currency. Imagine the Germans as your defacto central banker... Anyway, at the start of the year we were near parity.  The USD Index started the year a little over 100 and now is 93. That means we declined relative to other currencies. It's a race to the bottom and we're winning. 

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5 hours ago, Elegua said:

True, but 2008 is the most unfavorable it's gotten in since inception of the EUR. As far as I'm concerned the EUR is a crap currency. Imagine the Germans as your defacto central banker... Anyway, at the start of the year we were near parity.  The USD Index started the year a little over 100 and now is 93. That means we declined relative to other currencies. It's a race to the bottom and we're winning. 

The Euro has had some serious issues over the last years, no doubt about it.

Time will tell if the dollar is not in some much more serious shit. Believe me, I hope you are right, but I have some very strong doubts and worry about what the future holds.

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13 hours ago, Ishmael said:

I have seen reference to this being a K-shaped recovery, with the rich doing well and the poorer getting poorer. It sure looks like it from here.

So you're saying that a normal market, a recession and a recovery all have the same result?

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10 hours ago, olaf hart said:

Nothing wrong with owning assets in a crash, as long as you don’t need to sell them...

This. Good time to cash out all the crap you don't really need and be ready to pick up some decent stuff at reduced prices if things do go to shit.

FKT

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13 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

This. Good time to cash out all the crap you don't really need and be ready to pick up some decent stuff at reduced prices if things do go to shit.

FKT

Yep, I am holding a deposit on the Elliott and just advertised the Steber...

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An eyeopener for me was our local YMCA Boat Auction. Because of Covid, a full lot of donated sailboats went to online, "make an offer" sale. Pretty nice lot of boats, from about 30' down to a few dinghies. 

 

Usually, the lot thins out after the auction but it's about half full. Those remaining go into next years auction. 

 

We were out riding bikes last night and tooled through the lot. There's only 1 boat left, an Oday Tempest. I bet that doesn't last over winter. Houses are selling around here at a pace I've never witnessed(and I follow that market). 

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3 minutes ago, Kris Cringle said:

Houses are selling around here at a pace I've never witnessed(and I follow that market). 

Do you have any concerns or reservations about people flooding in and fmucking up your little paradise?

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1 hour ago, Ajax said:

Do you have any concerns or reservations about people flooding in and fmucking up your little paradise?

Not so far,...

Everybody seems to be playing by the rules. Heck, our rules are not that strict and we all know those rules work. 

Because we have small communities clustered here on the coast, we don't have a huge supply so when properties start moving, other people are free'd up to buy and a chain reaction happens. Today we've got one-day sales and buyers bidding properties up. It's just a few properties but that is crazy for here.

It's as much the Covid changes like working remotely that has many people on the move to here I guess. I watched our selectmen do their meeting on Zoom instead of at the town office. Damned if they didn't get everything done and in at least hour less time than a typical meeting(that is broadcast online). Now that our positivity rate is still dead low, they can start meetings in person.

They don't want to. I don't want them to. Let's find something useful for that space to enclose. 

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On 10/2/2020 at 11:37 AM, Kris Cringle said:

Not so far,...

Everybody seems to be playing by the rules. Heck, our rules are not that strict and we all know those rules work. 

Because we have small communities clustered here on the coast, we don't have a huge supply so when properties start moving, other people are free'd up to buy and a chain reaction happens. Today we've got one-day sales and buyers bidding properties up. It's just a few properties but that is crazy for here.

It's as much the Covid changes like working remotely that has many people on the move to here I guess. I watched our selectmen do their meeting on Zoom instead of at the town office. Damned if they didn't get everything done and in at least hour less time than a typical meeting(that is broadcast online). Now that our positivity rate is still dead low, they can start meetings in person.

They don't want to. I don't want them to. Let's find something useful for that space to enclose. 

There's some good revenue from brothels.

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