enigmatically2

Will we see a dry race?

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When this all kicked off there was a lot of talk about how the winner would undoubtedly 'stay dry' throughout a race.

I admit that I have been away for a couple of months (indeed that gap allows me to contrast) , but catching up up on videos it appears to me that no-one is at that level yet. All can do dry tacks and gybes, but all seem to have at the least some small splashes, both during turns and also due to lulls or shifts in wind. Now all the boats seem to be losing much speed than they were, but nevertheless the loss is a number of knots so must be significant.

Will that be the key to victory? Who can minimise that?

I fear that during racing when there are lot of other constraints and pressures on the crew, the amount of wet time will only be greater than during practise so I think it may be more significant.  

Or do we think that concentrating on that will compromise something else (speed or height for example)

In a way I hope it does come down to crew-work and staying out of the water so it is a saling race as much as a design race

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Depends on the course. It doesn’t seem to be trending to like Bermuda where the sound is relatively constricted and there are multiple tack and gybes because of the course layout. 

Yes you could lose a lot of time if you touch - but if it is just a slight bouncer and you quickly stabilize and your fouls are faster and inherently less stable during the maneuvers, it might make up the difference. 

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1 hour ago, enigmatically2 said:

When this all kicked off there was a lot of talk about how the winner would undoubtedly 'stay dry' throughout a race.

I admit that I have been away for a couple of months (indeed that gap allows me to contrast) , but catching up up on videos it appears to me that no-one is at that level yet.

You need to look at more videos.

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And however many I see with no  splashes, the ones where it doesn't quite work are more  likely to be repeated on the race course when another boat is pressuring them

 

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Performing your jybes and tacks during gusts might be tactically useful.

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What about complete wet laps?  They are saying the race will be during a light air part of the year.

If wind is steady enough it looks like they can do everything a moth can do as far as staying airborne.

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A dry race? If ETNZ are involved there won’t be a dry pair of pants in the whole of kiwi island, the collective jizzing of millions of kiwis :lol:

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22 minutes ago, JALhazmat said:

A dry race? If ETNZ are involved there won’t be a dry pair of pants in the whole of kiwi island, the collective jizzing of millions of kiwis :lol:

Someone's a little jealous of our winning ways :)

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4 hours ago, enigmatically2 said:

When this all kicked off there was a lot of talk about how the winner would undoubtedly 'stay dry' throughout a race.

I admit that I have been away for a couple of months (indeed that gap allows me to contrast) , but catching up up on videos it appears to me that no-one is at that level yet. All can do dry tacks and gybes, but all seem to have at the least some small splashes, both during turns and also due to lulls or shifts in wind. Now all the boats seem to be losing much speed than they were, but nevertheless the loss is a number of knots so must be significant.

Will that be the key to victory? Who can minimise that?

I fear that during racing when there are lot of other constraints and pressures on the crew, the amount of wet time will only be greater than during practise so I think it may be more significant.  

Or do we think that concentrating on that will compromise something else (speed or height for example)

In a way I hope it does come down to crew-work and staying out of the water so it is a saling race as much as a design race

I think we'll see dry races. Maybe not every race. We only saw a few races in Bermuda with both boats achieving 100% fly time. I think it'll be the same this time. A handful of races will see both boats achieving 100% fly time. The rest will see 80 - 90%.

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15 minutes ago, Forourselves said:

Someone's a little jealous of our winning ways :)

Oh fuck you got me...

not denied my suggestion though have you ;-) 

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4 hours ago, enigmatically2 said:

And however many I see with no  splashes, the ones where it doesn't quite work are more  likely to be repeated on the race course when another boat is pressuring them

 

Albatrosses aside, the BDA experience in 2017 would suggest otherwise, no?

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When conditions are good we could see 100% dry laps or 905% dry with only minimal speed-loss surface kisses. 
 

The gamble will be if (yes, like during the Finals in BDA :) ) the wind drops to the almost-unimaginably tight to the bottom windspeed allowed. I doubt anyone will gamble a set of foils that can dry-lap when sailing in AC 36’s 6.5 knots min.. They’d be uselessly slow if the wind picked up to the 12-14 expected in March. 

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I think etnz have been doing dry laps for ages from what I've heard. Don't get much news of other boats.

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16 minutes ago, barfy said:

I think etnz have been doing dry laps for ages from what I've heard. Don't get much news of other boats.

No denying that, but it’s also a bit different if you’ve got a boat next to you dictating your choices. I think it’ll be just like last time. If they can get separation, I think all the teams have the ability to stay airborne. If it’s a close race, I’d expect a few unwanted belly flops. That’s not any knock on the design, just a realistic view. 

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11 minutes ago, Monkey said:

If it’s a close race, I’d expect a few unwanted belly flops.

??? Do you mean they will try to be more aggressive in their maneuvers if under pressure, take chances where they run too much risk vs safety-reward through tacks? 

After the prestarts I don’t expect too much close boat on boat action save for on the occasional cross up the first leg to ww. Most will be boundary to boundary races with the leader extending. 

The Challenger Series has far more racing than the Match, so there’s a better chance of variety there. 
 

The real tactics wildcard will be during the Challenger Series races against S+S, since how the hell will tacticians know who, what, where, and how close they are to ramming you? 

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3 hours ago, Varan said:

yes

+1, all 4 of the teams, most of the time.

They are that good.

And the concept/design is that amazing.

 

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First post for ages, but don't mean I've not been following. I expect dry racing to be the norm, and splashes the exception, remember we've only seen the trial boats so far, and all teams are testing bits still. Spectacular as the boats look now, the 2 match boats will be several steps beyond what we see now.

 

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They choose their foils a couple of days before the race.
Do they know which course they will race on when they choose their foils? Isn't the course chosen on the day?
There might be a case for having different foils on each side to have a bob each way?

If you have chosen the wrong foil doesn't that mean you are more likely to take a swim?

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2 hours ago, Kiwing said:

If you have chosen the wrong foil doesn't that mean you are more likely to take a swim?

That depends, Kiwing - on the race conditions and whether you've been conservative or aggressive in your choice of foils (for those expected conditions) I'd have thought. 

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6 hours ago, laser 173312 said:

First post for ages, but don't mean I've not been following. I expect dry racing to be the norm, and splashes the exception, remember we've only seen the trial boats so far, and all teams are testing bits still. Spectacular as the boats look now, the 2 match boats will be several steps beyond what we see now.

 

Maybe not. Two B2's will be radically different, fo sure. Two others, maybe not so much. Foils? Who knows. Rigs, probably not.

There may well be a lot of new stuff we can't even see though.

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13 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

That depends, Kiwing - on the race conditions and whether you've been conservative or aggressive in your choice of foils (for those expected conditions) I'd have thought. 

That's my point @Sailbydate because you have to choose foils a couple of days(?) before hand, you are more likely to get it wrong.
If you have it wrong them you are more likely to push and as a result wet your bottom?

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14 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

Maybe not. Two B2's will be radically different, fo sure. Two others, maybe not so much. Foils? Who knows. Rigs, probably not.

There may well be a lot of new stuff we can't even see though.

I think we have not seen the "out of left field" sails yet.  How long does it take to copy these soft wing setups? 2-3 weeks?
Please can a sail maker give us an answer to that.  Then we will know when we will start seeing the real soft wing solutions?

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We may not be able to understand how their rig control systems are set up and how they (automagically via joystick) work. But I expect we will be able to observe and comment on the different rig/sail tuning techniques being practiced. 
 

As has been posted many times, a drone above the rigs would be frikkin awesome. Perfectly legal too. 
 

Some ridiculous old-school shit but maybe just rent a little plane like I did here? The footage would be far more awesom’er! Thank Stingette for the soundtrack... lol 
 

 

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On 9/14/2020 at 4:15 PM, Stingray~ said:

??? Do you mean they will try to be more aggressive in their maneuvers if under pressure, take chances where they run too much risk vs safety-reward through tacks? 

After the prestarts I don’t expect too much close boat on boat action save for on the occasional cross up the first leg to ww. Most will be boundary to boundary races with the leader extending. 

The Challenger Series has far more racing than the Match, so there’s a better chance of variety there. 
 

The real tactics wildcard will be during the Challenger Series races against S+S, since how the hell will tacticians know who, what, where, and how close they are to ramming you? 

Of course they will. These are the most competitive sailors on the planet. They’ll push every advantage they can. Every. Single. Fucking. One. Of. Them. 

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On 9/15/2020 at 4:29 AM, Forourselves said:

I think we'll see dry races. Maybe not every race. We only saw a few races in Bermuda with both boats achieving 100% fly time. I think it'll be the same this time. A handful of races will see both boats achieving 100% fly time. The rest will see 80 - 90%.

I'm with this too. We will see dry races but there will be races where pressure forces a touch down. Tacking speed and boat speed will be king. 

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3 hours ago, Kiwing said:

That's my point @Sailbydate because you have to choose foils a couple of days(?) before hand, you are more likely to get it wrong.
If you have it wrong them you are more likely to push and as a result wet your bottom?

niwa got their first super computer for predicting weather around 2001

they are now i think on their third

each time the area of prediction gets smaller and the results more accurate and for a longer period of time

unless you pay you don't get to see anything like what their capabilities are and for how far out they can supply them

( i had for awhile the fire and rescue logon and password for rural fire fighting .. what area and what accuracy they had then astounded me )

i have no doubt dalts will be paying metvue for those reports and they will fairly accurately know what any 3 week period will be like

so the gamble of going with a fairly tight limit for the foils wont be that big

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, trt131 said:

And ETNZ weather man is an Aussie.

Close enough for me.

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5 hours ago, phill_nz said:

niwa got their first super computer for predicting weather around 2001

they are now i think on their third

each time the area of prediction gets smaller and the results more accurate and for a longer period of time

 

Wonder what this guy now thinks of the accuracy of NIWA forecasting abilities.

E7D7A906-875F-46D6-B60A-04415AF3F086.thumb.jpeg.17535e33addb0b5948007c502b23e119.jpeg

 

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3 minutes ago, Priscilla said:

Wonder what this guy now thinks of the accuracy of NIWA forecasting abilities.

E7D7A906-875F-46D6-B60A-04415AF3F086.thumb.jpeg.17535e33addb0b5948007c502b23e119.jpeg

 

I think he's looking for a new job, Prissy. Maybe he could join them?

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7 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

I think he's looking for a new job, Prissy. Maybe he could join them?

I think they recruit only optimistic types and Raveen wouldn’t be feeling that buoyant after his recent loss of salary.

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On 9/15/2020 at 9:06 AM, Monkey said:

No denying that, but it’s also a bit different if you’ve got a boat next to you dictating your choices. I think it’ll be just like last time. If they can get separation, I think all the teams have the ability to stay airborne. If it’s a close race, I’d expect a few unwanted belly flops. That’s not any knock on the design, just a realistic view. 

And practice pays off. Remember the performances in the practice racing, then the masterclasses in the match by both teams, and the gap between the two? Still early days,I reckon we will be amazed at some of the bags of tricks these teams have up their sleeves.

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Dry Race? Define Race. Just the Actual Race (post Start Line) or including the entire pre-start sequence when the boats need to be in the start area?

Crossing start line to finish - Yes, not all races, but very Bermuda like - if you are not in Flight mode +95% (when conditions ordinarily would expect flight) then you will not be competitive.

The fact that it is slated to be Upwind start - then it is highly probable that we will see some awkward floaty and slow looking stuff during pre-start shenanigans. 

And will there be a ruling that outlaws towing into flight mode by a chase boat immediately prior to pre-start? Watch this space.

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Racing A boat is racing from her preparatory signal until she finishes and clears the finishing line and marks or retires, or until the race committee signals a general recall, postponement or abandonment.

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