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Cal20sailor

Lay Down Sally...Please

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This thing is going to wreak havoc.  Ten to 20 inches of rain in places.  That's the kind of stuff that will take out entire towns.  I looked but didn't see any other threads on the Storm.  My best wishes to all in harm's way.  

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45 minutes ago, Navig8tor said:

When’s Donnie scheduled to throw kitchen towel to the faithful.

I like the idea.

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yeah the gulf coast is getting hammered this season, with more storms working their way across the ocean

 

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26 minutes ago, Marcjsmith said:

yeah the gulf coast is getting hammered this season, with more storms working their way across the ocean

 

this week we start the Greek names , 7 tropical things in the Atlantic today and we still have 2 1/2 months to go.

Looks like Bermuda is next up, as Teddy will be a major hurricane in it's sights 

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I think  Paulette slammed into Bermy  a couple days ago before fucking off towards Ireland or greenland or sumpin

 

and now it looks like it's gettin in line again for another go... 

cone graphic

 

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2 hours ago, Marcjsmith said:

yeah the gulf coast is getting hammered this season, with more storms working their way across the ocean

 

Well, if you look at the last 35 years, the Gulf Coast, South FL and Hatteras Get hammers pretty regularly.  

 

I read a couple of days ago that this season is big on numbers but low on average storm duration and intensity.  Sure seems like they move slower and bring significantly more rainfall though.  

ALLHurrStrikes8516.jpg

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3 hours ago, Marcjsmith said:

yeah the gulf coast is getting hammered this season, with more storms working their way across the ocean

And Bermuda might get whacked again.

593918707_143944_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind1.png.b37d9b5f3864ed3e7030acb6c115d5a4.png

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13 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

This thing is going to wreak havoc.  Ten to 20 inches of rain in places.  That's the kind of stuff that will take out entire towns.  I looked but didn't see any other threads on the Storm.  My best wishes to all in harm's way.  

I hope everyone in the area comes out of this OK.  It was a surprise that it made a sudden eastern turn and probably caught W FL and E AL unaware and unprepared.  

One of my rental houses is in Pensacola.  This sucks!  I know houses can be rebuilt but this is getting annoying going through this every year.  I was literally a couple of days away from starting the roof rebuild from the previous storm.  I'm sure that is now going on the backburner as every roofing tile in the SE US will be in huge demand.  Hopefully my roofer already had the stuff on hand and set aside for this project.  

I'm pretty sure I'm going to sell as soon as the current tenant's lease is up.  Anyone want to buy a nice 4BR house with a new roof?  

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Video from my buddy who lives two blocks back from Pensacola Bay between Pensacola and the Navy base. 
 

 

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Just now, MisterMoon said:

Video from my buddy who lives two blocks back from Pensacola Bay between Pensacola and the Navy base. 
 

 

Fuck!  I'm just on the West side of the base.  Fortunately I should be far enough inland and away from any rivers to be OK from flooding.  But this Sally looks like a bitch.  

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9 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Anyone want to buy a nice 4BR house with a new roof?  

What could go wrong? :ph34r:

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5 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Fuck!  I'm just on the West side of the base.  Fortunately I should be far enough inland and away from any rivers to be OK from flooding.  But this Sally looks like a bitch.  

I guess you are in one of those neighborhood near Big Lagoon then. LMK when you think about selling.

THis is from the Sanders Beach community center,  just around the corner from Joe Patti's if you know where that is. I talked to another buddy who has a house on Navy Point, all is ok there except part of a fence blew down. He just put an up-to-code roof on his house last year and came through fine. The guy who shot the video lost a bunch of shingles on his place. 

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3 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:
9 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Anyone want to buy a nice 4BR house with a new roof?  

What could go wrong? :ph34r:

Cane you delivere it to Sherilles Forde, NC?                                    :)

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12 minutes ago, MisterMoon said:

I guess you are in one of those neighborhood near Big Lagoon then. LMK when you think about selling.

THis is from the Sanders Beach community center,  just around the corner from Joe Patti's if you know where that is. I talked to another buddy who has a house on Navy Point, all is ok there except part of a fence blew down. He just put an up-to-code roof on his house last year and came through fine. The guy who shot the video lost a bunch of shingles on his place. 

Yep, just north of BL off Bauer Rd north of Sorrento.  I know Joe Pattie's well.  I was just there last spring.  I miss their seafood, especially the fresh Royal Red Shrimp right off the boat.  My new roof is planned to be replaced with code exceeding 100 mph shingles.

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would it help if the west coast cleaned their floors ?

 

 

 

in all seriousness stay safe those of you affected and look out for each other .

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17 hours ago, MisterMoon said:

Video from my buddy who lives two blocks back from Pensacola Bay between Pensacola and the Navy base. 
 

 

"probably not a good day for boating" -- priceless

 

hope everyone down there fares well... 

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When I was last in Florida at the Kennedy Space Center we stayed in a condo with an impressive set of storm shutters.

From a building and economic perspective is it cheaper to build lightly and expect a roof and siding tear off in the chance that you get hit?   Or spend the (not insignificant) cost to "proof" the structure.

Flying debris from your neighbors seems to cause 50% of the damage.

Seems like folks gamble a lot with some winners, some losers and some walk-away-ers.

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Laura was not normal - smaller than normal, much faster than normal thus no flooding but wind strength and tornados spun off? Most of Lake Charles still without power and could be at least another week or two.  Those big high line towers? They didn't get knocked down they got pretzled so have to be removed and new footer/foundations have to be poured.

I haven't been there but have spoken with many who live there, who have been through hurricanes before and never experienced one like this one.

As to Sally? I know what 40 to 50" of rain did to SE Texas,  and that was over a couple of days, if areas get a foot in a day or 2' or more the damage is going to be catastrophic.  Hoping all our peeps are ok.

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4 hours ago, d'ranger said:

As to Sally? I know what 40 to 50" of rain did to SE Texas,  and that was over a couple of days, if areas get a foot in a day or 2' or more the damage is going to be catastrophic.  Hoping all our peeps are ok.

During Harvey, in my neighborhood (West side of Houston), the city rain gauges in the area showed "only"  33 inches in 4 days. I did not get water in my house, so I was wondering; do I really need that flood insurance? Then a local colleague asked me: "what if you get only 24", but in ONE day? Are you sure your neighborhood will stay dry?"

I am still buying that flood insurance...

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23 hours ago, MisterMoon said:

Any word from @Rasputin22? He was in a bad spot for this storm. 

Not since just before the storm

Hoping he's OK and will check in... I bet he's pretty busy for the next few weeks though

- DSK

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6 hours ago, Laurent said:

During Harvey, in my neighborhood (West side of Houston), the city rain gauges in the area showed "only"  33 inches in 4 days. I did not get water in my house, so I was wondering; do I really need that flood insurance? Then a local colleague asked me: "what if you get only 24", but in ONE day? Are you sure your neighborhood will stay dry?"

I am still buying that flood insurance...

I am just SE of Houston, our neighborhood didn't flood but all the older ones around us did.  In Orange Texas 85% of structures flooded, Harvey went over, went into the gulf and then came back and whacked them again.  I was all over Texas and without flood insurance you are screwed. If your house is destroyed the max FEMA gives is $33,300 for structure and personal property. 2' of flood? Flooring, half the walls, all the lower cabinets and vanities are gone, all the furniture and appliances and good luck getting repairs done anytime soon. I am not involved in the money end but know that for that level of damage it ranged from $14k to 22k.  Sometimes on the same street with identical houses and water depth.

Insurance from what I know pays 3 to 6 times more. The FEMA grant money has not changed AFAIK since 2005 when i first got involved. It is never enough.  Not even close.  On the other hand I know people who stayed in hotels for a year.  Some got kicked out when I was assigned their applications. 

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2 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

I am just SE of Houston, our neighborhood didn't flood but all the older ones around us did.  In Orange Texas 85% of structures flooded, Harvey went over, went into the gulf and then came back and whacked them again.  I was all over Texas and without flood insurance you are screwed. If your house is destroyed the max FEMA gives is $33,300 for structure and personal property. 2' of flood? Flooring, half the walls, all the lower cabinets and vanities are gone, all the furniture and appliances and good luck getting repairs done anytime soon. I am not involved in the money end but know that for that level of damage it ranged from $14k to 22k.  Sometimes on the same street with identical houses and water depth.

Insurance from what I know pays 3 to 6 times more. The FEMA grant money has not changed AFAIK since 2005 when i first got involved. It is never enough.  Not even close.  On the other hand I know people who stayed in hotels for a year.  Some got kicked out when I was assigned their applications. 

That's why it is called "Disaster Relief" by FEMA not "Replacement Value Insurance".  

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29 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

That's why it is called "Disaster Relief" by FEMA not "Replacement Value Insurance".  

To be more accurate how about "Patch you up sort of relief"  Couple of points: a large number of flooded homes in Harvey were not in the flood plain, had never flooded, ever, were not required to have insurance. How about those folks? Includes the elderly couple both retired ministers who on the advice of the financial guy cancelled their flood insurance and then got 18"? Pretty much lost everything including her prized piano.  How about all the struggling poor folks living in crappy apartments that lost everything?  I realize that Harvey was a very unusual event but that may change as storms get stronger. The premiums are going up. I spoke with a family in Lake Charles today, young, 2 kids she just finished her masters so tons of student debt they have insurance and found out that their deductible is over $23k so all their damage is out of pocket. Do you expect all those working low paid jobs to have renters insurance? They should but it's a tough sell when just trying to get by.

I could rant on but will close with something a hotel manager in the French 4q in NOLA told me after Katrina "when the flood comes, the wet get wetter".

edit: One more rant - some people who are desperate get nothing. zip. nada. It's a very poorly administered system and those who are most in need are either in capable of asking for help or just don't know what to do. On the other hand there are always scammers who try to milk the system and I do my little part to see them get their just desserts.     So, the next time you get hit with a disaster feel free to share your experience.

edit edit rant rant:  So you know what happens to lower income neighborhoods who flooded with out insurance? They can't rebuild their homes, investors buy them for a fraction and then you have an instant renters area. Or they sell them and those owners who had to get out have now lost everything. The system sucks, the safety nets don't exist and some days I just go wtf. Harvey helped create a entire generation of people with nothing. Meanwhile there are millions of dollars that politicians sit on trying to figure out how to get their friends and families in on the public trough dining spree.

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14 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

To be more accurate how about "Patch you up sort of relief"  Couple of points: a large number of flooded homes in Harvey were not in the flood plain, had never flooded, ever, were not required to have insurance. How about those folks? Includes the elderly couple both retired ministers who on the advice of the financial guy cancelled their flood insurance and then got 18"? Pretty much lost everything including her prized piano.  How about all the struggling poor folks living in crappy apartments that lost everything?  I realize that Harvey was a very unusual event but that may change as storms get stronger. The premiums are going up. I spoke with a family in Lake Charles today, young, 2 kids she just finished her masters so tons of student debt they have insurance and found out that their deductible is over $23k so all their damage is out of pocket. Do you expect all those working low paid jobs to have renters insurance? They should but it's a tough sell when just trying to get by.

I could rant on but will close with something a hotel manager in the French 4q in NOLA told me after Katrina "when the flood comes, the wet get wetter".

edit: One more rant - some people who are desperate get nothing. zip. nada. It's a very poorly administered system and those who are most in need are either in capable of asking for help or just don't know what to do. On the other hand there are always scammers who try to milk the system and I do my little part to see them get their just desserts.     So, the next time you get hit with a disaster feel free to share your experience.

edit edit rant rant:  So you know what happens to lower income neighborhoods who flooded with out insurance? They can't rebuild their homes, investors buy them for a fraction and then you have an instant renters area. Or they sell them and those owners who had to get out have now lost everything. The system sucks, the safety nets don't exist and some days I just go wtf. Harvey helped create a entire generation of people with nothing. Meanwhile there are millions of dollars that politicians sit on trying to figure out how to get their friends and families in on the public trough dining spree.

All that you say about the low income folks getting screwed is true.  It is endemic to our current socialism for the wealthy/capitalism for the poor economic system.

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12 hours ago, d'ranger said:

edit edit rant rant:  So you know what happens to lower income neighborhoods who flooded with out insurance? They can't rebuild their homes, investors buy them for a fraction and then you have an instant renters area. Or they sell them and those owners who had to get out have now lost everything. The system sucks, the safety nets don't exist and some days I just go wtf. Harvey helped create a entire generation of people with nothing. Meanwhile there are millions of dollars that politicians sit on trying to figure out how to get their friends and families in on the public trough dining spree.

I agree with you that we have a terrible safety net system.  And that applies to unemployment, disaster relief, homelessness, etc.  Covid has exposed the deep flaws in our entire system IMHO.  The question is:  How do you fix it?  D', specifically for your flood insurance issue since you are close to the problem - what do you see is a way to fix it?

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1 hour ago, Burning Man said:

I agree with you that we have a terrible safety net system.  And that applies to unemployment, disaster relief, homelessness, etc.  Covid has exposed the deep flaws in our entire system IMHO.  The question is:  How do you fix it?  D', specifically for your flood insurance issue since you are close to the problem - what do you see is a way to fix it?

Insurance is a tough one - require everyone to have a flood rider to homeowners if they are in an area that could flood - those maps are being revised. Make the premiums and deductibles reasonable - for most folks a $20k+ deductible is like a health insurance plan when the deductible starts at ten grand - for many it's out of reach. For that and FEMA disaster assistance tie it to household income so those with nothing get enough help to survive. None of this is simple or easy but changes need to be made. Vote Blue because anything else insures those with the most get and keep the most.  I am only involved with assessments so have zero input to enacting any changes.

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There is a reason old-timers didn't build much more than shacks on the beachfront: they knew for certain they were going to be destroyed at some point. Federal flood insurance subsidized irresponsible building on beaches, waterfronts, streams and rivers. Make the cost commensurate with the actual  risks.

 

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1 hour ago, MisterMoon said:

There is a reason old-timers didn't build much more than shacks on the beachfront: they knew for certain they were going to be destroyed at some point. Federal flood insurance subsidized irresponsible building on beaches, waterfronts, streams and rivers. Make the cost commensurate with the actual  risks.

 

Along with heavy reliance on property tax financed local governments which zoned indefensible land and provided utilities for development and tax base.  

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On 9/17/2020 at 11:07 AM, Windward said:

When I was last in Florida at the Kennedy Space Center we stayed in a condo with an impressive set of storm shutters.

From a building and economic perspective is it cheaper to build lightly and expect a roof and siding tear off in the chance that you get hit?   Or spend the (not insignificant) cost to "proof" the structure.

Flying debris from your neighbors seems to cause 50% of the damage.

Seems like folks gamble a lot with some winners, some losers and some walk-away-ers.

build codes don't help

as they define the minimum standards

and make for a problem if you want to really storm proof  a roof

I got lucky and pre-cleared my plan with the local head of the city dept after the inspectors said you can't do that

and no pro roofers would bid the job at over code minimums

I did a cat 5 roof 3 layers of plywood screwed and glued by myself with hired locals as day workers

code is one layer nailed no glue

no tar no paper only modern plastic base called shark skin and ice and water hi-temp peal&stick plastic roofing that self seals the screws

the doubled every other sheet metal roofing 5v and lapped them over the peak about 6 feet each way 4 layers of metal at the peak

code is only one layer only no lapping allowed

bent down the edges of the metal over the 2x6 fascia   and screwed them down  code is 1x6 fascia no bending the metal allowed nails to attach the fascia to the beams

then added 1/2 SS rigging wire tied to the ground slab 23k load rated to hold the whole roof in place not even thought of in the current toughest in the USA local code

 

we are in the 1992 ANDREW eye wall strike zone and saw what a cat 5 eyewall does to roofing so built for that wind load level

something no code comes close to

we are on a ridge so no flood zone [did NOT flood in ANDREW] SO ONLY WIND LOADS ARE THE RISK

and can't afford hurricane insurance at 5k pre year so spent double the avg roofing costs once

all windows and doors inc garage covered by steel shutters

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How many condoms did you wear when you were trying to prevent kids?  Code is one, I'm guessing 4-5 glued and tacked on?  :lol:

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47 minutes ago, nota said:

build codes don't help

as they define the minimum standards

and make for a problem if you want to really storm proof  a roof

I got lucky and pre-cleared my plan with the local head of the city dept after the inspectors said you can't do that

and no pro roofers would bid the job at over code minimums

I did a cat 5 roof 3 layers of plywood screwed and glued by myself with hired locals as day workers

code is one layer nailed no glue

no tar no paper only modern plastic base called shark skin and ice and water hi-temp peal&stick plastic roofing that self seals the screws

the doubled every other sheet metal roofing 5v and lapped them over the peak about 6 feet each way 4 layers of metal at the peak

code is only one layer only no lapping allowed

bent down the edges of the metal over the 2x6 fascia   and screwed them down  code is 1x6 fascia no bending the metal allowed nails to attach the fascia to the beams

then added 1/2 SS rigging wire tied to the ground slab 23k load rated to hold the whole roof in place not even thought of in the current toughest in the USA local code

 

we are in the 1992 ANDREW eye wall strike zone and saw what a cat 5 eyewall does to roofing so built for that wind load level

something no code comes close to

we are on a ridge so no flood zone [did NOT flood in ANDREW] SO ONLY WIND LOADS ARE THE RISK

and can't afford hurricane insurance at 5k pre year so spent double the avg roofing costs once

all windows and doors inc garage covered by steel shutters

You have a really bizarre idea of what building codes require versus what they allow and what professional roofers would bid on.   Although I can see them not wanting to get involved in your crackpot roofing system.   I'm fascinated.  

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55 minutes ago, nota said:

build codes don't help

as they define the minimum standards

and make for a problem if you want to really storm proof  a roof

I got lucky and pre-cleared my plan with the local head of the city dept after the inspectors said you can't do that

Yeah, sounds nutty. Hiring a structural engineer would have been money well spent. Not difficult to make a building withstand any specified storm. The contractors were correct to run away from this apparent lunacy.

57 minutes ago, nota said:

4 layers of metal at the peak...

I would think the metal is for waterproofing. One good layer is as good as ten.

Did you calculate the forces to simply overturn the whole house (or more likely break) the slab when lifted by the fancy-ass S/S wire? More concrete and simple tie-downs would be the common sense popular approach.

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That's one heavy roof! I imagine that the whole thing would peal up like a giant Pringles potato chip under the right conditions, and take out the neighbor's house halfway up the first floor wall framing.

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To address it, you first have to have the balls to follow the Greeks and Egyptians. Abandon indefensible cities. Putting up walls and pumps to “protect” a city such as New Orleans when seas are rising is a fool’s game.
 

Let flood insurance pay twice, regardless of who owns the property. You get a mulligan for the first flood but only get a payout to relocate after a second. The taxpayers are not going underwrite the property a third time. I’ve read about a beach house on Dauphin island that has been rebuilt at the taxpayer’s expense something like 5 times. Tough part is places that were never zoned and suburbia, shopping malls and “civilization” came to them, turning fields and woods into 70-80% impervious surfaces and flood maps never kept up with urban run off that flooded so many houses in Houston. Add in a “100 year storm” and uninsured get flooded out. Those folks deserve some local (not national) compensation as it’s the local lack of any or poor zoning that condemned them to flooding. Get rid of the political influence on the flood maps. After the last update that included placed that had flooded in the previous 5 years, there was a huge explosion in consultants that would guarantee that they could negotiate you out of the flood zone. Any property “negotiated out” of a designated flood zone should be ineligible for assistance if it then floods  

Maryland state geo data is publicly accessible and has seal level rise impact overlays that you can select. those also make a pretty good surrogate for surge impacts. Lots of nice waterfront on the Potomac shore gets wet pretty quickly when the tide rises.  When we were looking at waterfront, we looks at several Potomac waterfront properties where the ditches filled up at high tide it were not then in a flood zone. They are after the last update. 

After Florida took multiple hits In 2003 or so, the state put in new limits on insurers that were pretty severe. As a consequence, several underwriters exits the Fl market. In Maryland, insurers brought in hurricane deductibles at up to 10% That kick in you have been Under a hurricane warning up to 24-48 hours before the damage occurs.  We got screwed when the NHC put the southern tip of Maryland under a hurricane warning for a single forecast cycle before dropping us back down to a TS warning for Irene.  That kicked in the hurricane deductible and those who had not read their policies and bought on price alone got screwed with huge deductibles. Some of us paid higher premiums with insurers who do not have the exploding deductibles and were well covered.  Lowering premiums and deductibles at the same time means subsidized insurance as premiums won’t cover risks in places that are hurricane magnets and have been for recorded history. What are the limits on subsidized insurance when the marketplace decides the rewards no longer cover risks? I’m ok is folks in Colorado and Wyoming want to subsidize my insurance. 

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34 minutes ago, El Boracho said:

Yeah, sounds nutty. Hiring a structural engineer would have been money well spent. Not difficult to make a building withstand any specified storm. The contractors were correct to run away from this apparent lunacy.

I would think the metal is for waterproofing. One good layer is as good as ten.

Did you calculate the forces to simply overturn the whole house (or more likely break) the slab when lifted by the fancy-ass S/S wire? More concrete and simple tie-downs would be the common sense popular approach.

metal galvanized  steel is the wind load resistance peal&stick is water sealer plastic in place of tar/paper

worked with two structural engineers who were friends on the ideas before I started

idea of laps and bends is to not allow open ends of the metal to flap and come off

idea of 3 ply layers with screws + glue not nails is from bahama houses that survive cat 4-5 storms

cbs walls have concrete caps with metal strapping to tie down the beams

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42 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

That's one heavy roof! I imagine that the whole thing would peal up like a giant Pringles potato chip under the right conditions, and take out the neighbor's house halfway up the first floor wall framing.

about the same or less total weight as concrete/clay tile that others have on the same beams/structures

but the tile has no real structural strength or load spreading just weight

cbs walls here as wood frame is a no no in hurricanes

and that is why the 1/2'' SS cables just to be double sure the roof stays in place

I have seen what a cat 5 does to normal code roofs I worked in south dade after ANDREW rebuilding

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15 minutes ago, nota said:

about the same or less total weight as concrete/clay tile that others have on the same beams/structures

but the tile has no real structural strength or load spreading just weight

cbs walls here as wood frame is a no no in hurricanes

and that is why the 1/2'' SS cables just to be double sure the roof stays in place

I have seen what a cat 5 does to normal code roofs I worked in south dade after ANDREW rebuilding

The building codes in Florida were thoroughly changed after Andrew.   

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31 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

The building codes in Florida were thoroughly changed after Andrew.   

most other areas in fla came up to the sfla code but the sfla code increased only a little

thank to very cost concise developers who bribe/support the local law makers

I watched a house built in 2019 next door with one layer tar paper no tar and shingles nailed on

improved areas cbs wall corners now have rebar and concrete reinforcement

windows have to be ''hurricane rated'' tested with ONE HIT but they broke out totally in in Dorian with many hits

doors also but most still have cheap soft wood frames

roofing not much tile is required to have one nail in it now vs none

improved but still very inadequate truss and ply standards up from 1/2'' to 5/8 really 17/32 nailed my roof is 1 1/2'' screwed and glued

they only want nails no glue and one layer of 17/32 only for the decking

roof truss uses 2x4 braces and 2x6 longs to code now

my 40's built small house had 2x8 and some real 4x8s and 12x4 main ridge beam on full 1'' tongue &groove +barrel tile

and standards are for claimed 130mph most think 100mph is more realistic for the latest codes

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Time to bring up the dreaded climate change - disasters are occurring where they didn't before or are more severe. Sea level rise is coming. New Orleans may not be sustainable, the next few decades may see a number of coastal areas be abandoned, the west coast fires are unprecedented and will only get worse. 

There are no easy solutions and nobody is going to want to pay for them. Luckily I am not likely to live long enough to have to deal with it including much of the south become inhospitably hot.  We need to get our plan together to invade Canada. 

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Correct me if I’m wrong.   Federal flood insurance is low risk locations subsidizing areas known to be likely to flood, sometimes (gulf) inevitably going to reflood every couple years.   I live on a hill.   I actually checked before buying.    I don’t live on a river or ocean.   Why should I pay for you to live in Texas, Florida or Louisiana?    You guys have never come up and shoveled snow for me (not that it snows much anymore).    Climate change is real.   Deal or move.   Don’t look for me to socialize your house.   

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4 minutes ago, Lark said:

Correct me if I’m wrong.   Federal flood insurance is low risk locations subsidizing areas known to be likely to flood, sometimes (gulf) inevitably going to reflood every couple years.   I live on a hill.   I actually checked before buying.    I don’t live on a river or ocean.   Why should I pay for you to live in Texas, Florida or Louisiana?    You guys have never come up and shoveled snow for me (not that it snows much anymore).    Climate change is real.   Deal or move.   Don’t look for me to socialize your house.   

take a look at this site, put in your address, it seems not just costal flooding but all types of flooding

https://floodfactor.com/

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2 hours ago, Not for nothing said:

take a look at this site, put in your address, it seems not just costal flooding but all types of flooding

https://floodfactor.com/

Interesting,    Like tornadoes, sporadic rare events can be subsidized by less unlucky neighbors.    Risk goes up considerably if your town lacks zoning and ordinance on drainage, if you build along rivers or coasts, but remains low at the tops of hills.  This would be a good tool to determine if you should buy or lend on a property in a rational marketplace.    The current system encourages building in high risk locations, confident in the willingness of others to subsidize your land’s appreciation.   It discourages concern about climate change.    Banks might refuse 30 year mortgages in areas predicted to be at risk of flooding in a quarter century.   Houses in hurricane territory near sea level would be treated like trailer homes and other depreciating assets.   Mortgages would be adjusted accordingly.   

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11 hours ago, Lark said:

Interesting,    Like tornadoes, sporadic rare events can be subsidized by less unlucky neighbors.    Risk goes up considerably if your town lacks zoning and ordinance on drainage, if you build along rivers or coasts, but remains low at the tops of hills.  This would be a good tool to determine if you should buy or lend on a property in a rational marketplace.    The current system encourages building in high risk locations, confident in the willingness of others to subsidize your land’s appreciation.   It discourages concern about climate change.    Banks might refuse 30 year mortgages in areas predicted to be at risk of flooding in a quarter century.   Houses in hurricane territory near sea level would be treated like trailer homes and other depreciating assets.   Mortgages would be adjusted accordingly.   

In where I move to Hobe sound Fl. my house high and dry , but interesting enough some streets were flooded for months after a major (5") rain storm, so your house could be ok but if you can't too or from it , 

Interesting , another fact, Florida largest Lake O just hit 15' that they will start discharging the water from it, Well the huge lake is so polluted , from farm , sewage runoff and golf courses, it has all kinds of bad stuff growing in it 

Algae sits on top of Lake Okeechobee waters, seen pooled on the lake side at Port Mayaca Lock and Dam on Monday, June 11, 2019, in Martin County.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-lake-okeechobee-toxic-algae-problem-2018-07-06/#:~:text=The problem starts at Lake,commercial agriculture and sprawling development.

But lets get back to hurricanes , south florida has dodge the bullet so far

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take a breath ...

two_atl_0d0.png?241501

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On 9/16/2020 at 8:36 PM, MisterMoon said:

Any word from @Rasputin22? He was in a bad spot for this storm. 

The Rasp is back!

    A bit soggy and bruised though.

    Yeah the High Cotton fishshack here on Cotton Bayou was pretty much right at ground zero. Actually the weather and news is reporting the center of the eye went between Orange Beach and Gulf Shores which is about 7 miles west of us. That put us right in the advancing eyewall and I can verify that from what I witnessed during the storm. Eye was not very symmetrical and we sort of bumped along the raggedy edge with alternating near calms of about 10-15 minutes and then the winds would resume but still from the original SE direction and just as intense. This went on about 3 hours before the big spell in the eye and the wind shifted to the SW and blew far harder than one would expect when going from the dangerous advancing semi circle to the opposite retreating semi-circle. I guess the very slow speed over the ground of Sally as a whole (2 MPH!) would account for that. Pensacola took a beating too and was just 1 mph below the Cat 3 level so our position 20 miles west must have put us into the low end of Cat 3 and my observations agree. 

    Here is the surprising damage to beachfront condos that would not have occured in a  Cat 2. Sorry, screengrabs are getting hung up in the uploads.

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/weather/2020/09/17/hurricane-sally-aftermath-orig-jk.cnn

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A dropsonde released from the recon aircraft suggests that wind gusts as high as 130 mph may be reaching the ground in the northeast eyewall of #Sally.
 
 
Image
 
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Hurricane_Mitch__Avatar__bigger.jpg
 
The buoy south of Orange Beach, AL is in the eyewall of Hurricane #Sally, measuring a sustained wind of 87 mph with gusts to 109 mph.

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A bit closer to home is this photo of the boats that are in our front yard. Our fish shack is actually just out of the photo to the left and that white center console boat broadside to the photo has its anchor hanging over our porch railing just outside the kitchen. I was able to finally get some sleep in fits and starts but around 3:00 AM I heard a running diesel engine. Steady RPM's so figure it for a genset and got up to see the 105' blue head boat WEATHER OR KNOT hit the Hatteras 65' Sport fisher which was grinding away at the little gray house. It knocked the 65'er to the side and up between the houses and tag teamed the poor little house until a next big blast of eyewall winds. The stern of the head boat started swinging our way with the 26' center console acting as a spike aimed right at our 65 year old renovated fish shack. The KNOT was lit up with radars spinning and the genset going but there was no one on board! The capt of the Sport Fisher was taking refuge in the V berth and we didn't even see him until about 7:00 AM when the owner of the bigger boat showed up and shut down the genset. 

img_3176.jpg?w=960&h=719&crop=1

 

Thanks for that link Son! Found our little place and look at my little Brown SeaClipper 28 trimaran that is still sitting upright in its slip!

image.thumb.png.b0a6ece0a9af144945b44adb564ecc58.png

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Glad ur ok rasper. We ended up in dallas (work related) boogied back last weekend to survey damage. Turned an burned back to Dallas. Just got back yesterday.  Lots of trees and some roof damage. No where near as bad as ya’ll. Couple of workmates down by y’all got hammered too. PYC had boats all over the lawn including the new RC trawler. 
Think we saw the NW eyewall judging by the direction of the fallen trees here.

Got the roof patched but we will see what adjuster says next week. 

we got power back yesterday. Clean up begins.

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Glad to hear back from you all.

Damn things do make a hell of a mess, don't they?

- DSK

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City of Orange Beach woke me up with a small barge and crane cleaning up 'the shore'. I ran out and they are going to pull and set my tri on my shore and help me block it up so I can find the whole in the main hull that has the boat floating solely on the amas! Pics soon!

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Glad to hear you came out relatively ok. Going to be interesting to watch them get those big boats off your property. I hope they all have good insurance so it doesn't become your problem! 

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