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Dog

Do lockdowns work?

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11 minutes ago, Grrr... said:

...  What is wrong with you?  ...

Pretty much needs to be said to every Trump supporter out there.  Some kind of mass derangement syndrome keeps them going though.  Strange times.

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2 minutes ago, Rain Man said:

Pretty much needs to be said to every Trump supporter out there.  Some kind of mass derangement syndrome keeps them going though.  Strange times.

Pretty sure, that those MAGA clowns here are following social distancing guidelines, wear masks and keep interaction at necessary minimum (self imposed lockdown) while railing on about the opposite here ;)

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28 minutes ago, Gouvernail said:

Declining???  He only killed  1027 Americans yesterday!!

“What a fantastic improvement!” claims the irrational fool 


Perhaps  we are starting to run out of frail folks to whom the Psychopath in Chief can easily gain access. 
 

Location   Cases Recovered Deaths
United States
 
6.69M
+34,364
3.63M
199K
+1,027

Yeah ...declining. It means they're getting smaller in number.

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6 minutes ago, Dog said:

Yeah ...declining. It means they're getting smaller in number.

What's declining?  

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

What's declining?  

Didn't you see the + signs ;) It's declining.

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21 minutes ago, Grrr... said:

They do you fucking idiot.  See the situations at the Universities, and situations from things like the Sturgis bike rally.  Trump's rally.  What is wrong with you?  Just wait for all the tiny tots who returned to normal school this fall to begin falling ill - because that's already happening in some schools.

https://reason.com/2020/09/09/no-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-didnt-spawn-250000-coronavirus-cases/

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3 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

What's declining?  

Cases and deaths.

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3 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

What's declining?  

He’s a day late, he always claims it’s declining on Monday due to the Sunday decline in reporting. He’s a predictable puppy

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

well that's a source of something

What, you mean, you think 

Quote

The researchers also assumed a $46,000 price tag for each person infected to calculate the $12.2 billion public health cost of the event—but this figure would only make sense if every person had a severe case requiring hospitalization.

Is a drop in the budget for medical care in the us?

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Just now, Dog said:

Cases and deaths.

Fuck, at least be precise.

new cases maybe?

new deaths?

You’re wrong in either case, but at least you could play the Monday reporting lag once a week.

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6 minutes ago, Dog said:

Cases and deaths.

you sure about that?

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26 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

Who is this us you are referring to? It looks like Dumbfuckistan, your peeps, is just dying to get your boy Shitstain re-elected.

image.png.cc6b8eb5c324aa691c37dd09cc573338.pngimage.png.22fed82fd773bd49cb0e17f448209503.png

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

Dude... total cases will always go up because that's all they can do.

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6 minutes ago, Dog said:

Your link is a story citing the politician who expressly approved the Sturgis rally saying that scientists are lying about the number of sick and number of deaths that her lack of leadership caused. 

Sounds like science!

 

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2 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Fuck, at least be precise.

new cases maybe?

new deaths?

You’re wrong in either case, but at least you could play the Monday reporting lag once a week.

Of course new cases, and I'm not wrong.

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36 minutes ago, bhyde said:

What the fuck is wrong with you? We've lost 200K of our neighbors and you bring this kind of bullshit. Stop being a dick.

How is trying to understand how the pandemic works being a dick?

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@Dog wrote: “What about the "irrational" people? If your theory were true wouldn't the irrational people spread the infection?

they do, and they are. The Sturgis rally, Trump rally leading to Herman Cain’s death, schools reopening with crowded halls are all examples which should inform your responses, but they don’t apparently. 

Is your blindness willful? Can you perceive your inability to discuss scientific matters competently?

One of my greatest concerns with choosing between full virtual and a hybrid model of schooling my kids is that 100% of pandemic deniers/Trumpets/scientific incompetents will send their kids to school. Once there, the kids will tend to model their parent’s attitudes towards social isolation and mask use putting my family at greater risk.

I don’t want my family to have the same risk of death as climate deniers, vaccine deniers and flat earthers. I went to school and learned about stuff in order to improve my family’s chances for success and happiness.

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11 minutes ago, Dog said:

From your very own post, proving irrational idiots DO spread covid.

According to South Dakota health officials, 124 new cases in the state—including one fatal case—were directly linked to the rally. Overall, COVID-19 cases linked to the Sturgis rally were reported in 11 states as of September 2, to a tune of at least 260 new cases, according to The Washington Post.

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2 minutes ago, phillysailor said:

@Dog wrote: “What about the "irrational" people? If your theory were true wouldn't the irrational people spread the infection?

they do, and they are. The Sturgis rally, Trump rally leading to Herman Cain’s death, schools reopening with crowded halls are all examples which should inform your responses, but they don’t apparently. 

Is your blindness willful? Can you perceive your inability to discuss scientific matters competently?

One of my greatest concerns with choosing between full virtual and a hybrid model of schooling my kids is that 100% of pandemic deniers/Trumpets/scientific incompetents will send their kids to school. Once there, the kids will tend to model their parent’s attitudes towards social isolation and mask use putting my family at greater risk.

I don’t want my family to have the same risk of death as climate deniers, vaccine deniers and flat earthers. I went to school and learned about stuff in order to improve my family’s chances for success and happiness.

My kids went virtual.  It's difficult, but worth it in the short term to prevent additional carriers and improve their safety.

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4 minutes ago, Dog said:

Noem insisted just 124 new cases in South Dakota have been connected to the Sturgis bash, which ran from Aug. 7 through Aug. 16.

How many of the 365,979 people people who went to Sturgis were from South Dakota (pop. 884,659)?

 

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23 minutes ago, Dog said:

How is trying to understand how the pandemic works being a dick?

Willful ignorance is not a path to understanding. Spreading crackpot science is being a dick. And you know it.

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31 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

you sure about that?

Dog is often wrong.  But, never in doubt.

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52 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

Noem insisted just 124 new cases in South Dakota have been connected to the Sturgis bash, which ran from Aug. 7 through Aug. 16.

How many of the 365,979 people people who went to Sturgis were from South Dakota (pop. 884,659)?

 

It's just more dogshit from the dog.  He was pretending that the article disputing the number of cases stemming from sturgis meant that they were disputing ALL the cases caused by this unnecessary biker rally.  Typical gaslighting.

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33 minutes ago, Bus Driver said:

Dog is often wrong.  But, never in doubt.

BD likes to talk about me.

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35 minutes ago, bhyde said:

Willful ignorance is not a path to understanding. Spreading crackpot science is being a dick. And you know it.

You apparently can't refute it...This is nothing

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4 minutes ago, Dog said:

BD likes to talk about me.

Lots of posters mock you for your bullshit.  You only whine about me.

Funny, that.

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1 minute ago, Dog said:

You apparently can't refute it...This is nothing

You and your elk all have the same M.O.  - get people to waste time refuting garbage propaganda.  You seize on some crackpot junk that supports your deranged position, put it out there and bleat "refute it" over and over again.

Stop wasting everyone's time.  

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1 minute ago, Rain Man said:

You and your elk all have the same M.O.  - get people to waste time refuting garbage propaganda.  You seize on some crackpot junk that supports your deranged position, put it out there and bleat "refute it" over and over again.

Stop wasting everyone's time.  

It's about owning the libs.  Identify the mortal enemy and waste his or her time pretending to seek rational conversation. 

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I agree. Once the conversation turns technical, once serious objections are effectively presented, he reverts to victimhood.

He can’t direct or sustain a discussion. He can only “post a video for consideration.” It’s about as intellectually strenuous as posting a meme, and just about as significant. 

I guess he thinks we should be impressed because he doesn’t troll with memes. Good @Dog. Go fetch us another example of flawed logic to which you subscribe.

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1 minute ago, Dog said:

You apparently can't refute it...This is nothing

I don't have to. The previous posts by Philly, Grrr and others have done more than an adequate job in that regard. Whether or not you choose to believe what they have said is up to you. Posting complete bullshit, as you often do, and then expecting everyone to refute it is just the kind of ridiculous shit you pull in your everlasting quest to undermine logic and reason to the benefit of your narcissistic need for attention. 200K dead and you're spreading complete bullshit. I don't know how you were raised, but most people find that reprehensible behavior. If you think you are "owning libs," you're wrong; You're just being a dick.

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1 minute ago, phillysailor said:

I agree. Once the conversation turns technical, once serious objections are effectively presented, he reverts to victimhood.

He can’t direct or sustain a discussion. He can only “post a video for consideration.” It’s about as intellectually strenuous as posting a meme, and just about as significant. 

I guess he thinks we should be impressed because he doesn’t troll with memes.

Dude ...Give me a break, I log on and have over 20 notifications. Speaking of technical issues we haven't resolved why countries exhibit pretty much the same death rate curve regardless of intervention methods.

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11 minutes ago, Dog said:

. Speaking of technical issues we haven't resolved why countries exhibit pretty much the same death rate curve regardless of intervention methods.

They dont, dumb fuck.

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14 minutes ago, bhyde said:

I don't have to. The previous posts by Philly, Grrr and others have done more than an adequate job in that regard. Whether or not you choose to believe what they have said is up to you. Posting complete bullshit, as you often do, and then expecting everyone to refute it is just the kind of ridiculous shit you pull in your everlasting quest to undermine logic and reason to the benefit of your narcissistic need for attention. 200K dead and you're spreading complete bullshit. I don't know how you were raised, but most people find that reprehensible behavior. If you think you are "owning libs," you're wrong; You're just being a dick.

More nothing.

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16 minutes ago, Dog said:

Dude ...Give me a break, I log on and have over 20 notifications. Speaking of technical issues we haven't resolved why countries exhibit pretty much the same death rate curve regardless of intervention methods.

Is it your contention that our death rate in the early stages of the pandemic would’ve been unchanged had we not had a lockdown? 

That would mean that widespread use of PPE for all patients with COVID status unknown & constant mask use has no impact on disease spread. We did not have these tools available to us back in March and the lockdown gave us time to beef up supply chains.

It also eased the pressure in hospitals, allowing us to take care of the very sick and preventing new patients from unnecessarily coming in for care, diverting resources and spreading the disease even further.

No amount of statistical modeling is going to convince me that I had enough gear to protect me when this started. In early February I stood up at a hospital open house and asked the CEO why we weren’t limiting visitors and requiring 100% mask use of all people, patients or staff. He hemmed and hawed, and the message “we don’t have enough” came through quite clearly.

Without the lockdown, millions of healthcare workers would’ve been hugely at risk, unnecessarily forced to chose between going to work and probably getting sick (& causing them deaths of our families and friends), or abandoning patients in need.

Lockdowns were necessary, and were a sign that we had a functioning government willing to take steps to protect the population. A failure to defend, combined with a NYC type event in every city across the nation could’ve threatened social unrest, driving up costs in terms of lives ruined  and $ lost/spent recovering.

This could have been a lot worse, and your graphs apparently ignore America’s PPE & hospital bed situation.

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2 hours ago, phillysailor said:

No, the science part I got at school and from literature I’ve read since then.

The result of a worldwide population complete isolation would prevent hospital workers, EMS, utility and communications workers, caregivers and a plethora of other workers from keeping society going.

Complete population isolation is not valuable, even as a thought experiment.

I didn't think I needed to preface what I said by stating reasonable and common sense measures would be taken to prevent this.  I thought that would have been understood. 

Now if you were a Trumpaloon, then I would have expected that.

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3 minutes ago, phillysailor said:

Is it your contention that our death rate in the early stages of the pandemic would’ve been unchanged had we not had a lockdown? 

That would mean that widespread use of PPE for all patients with COVID status unknown & constant mask use has no impact on disease spread. We did not have these tools available to us back in March and the lockdown gave us time to beef up supply chains.

It also eased the pressure in hospitals, allowing us to take care of the very sick and preventing new patients from unnecessarily coming in for care, diverting resources and spreading the disease even further.

No amount of statistical modeling is going to convince me that I had enough gear to protect me when this started. In early February I stood up at a hospital open house and asked the CEO why we weren’t limiting visitors and requiring 100% mask use of all people, patients or staff. He hemmed and hawed, and the message “we don’t have enough” came through quite clearly.

Without the lockdown, millions of healthcare workers would’ve been hugely at risk, unnecessarily forced to chose between going to work and probably getting sick (& causing them deaths of our families and friends), or abandoning patients in need.

Lockdowns were necessary, and were a sign that we had a functioning government willing to take steps to protect the population. A failure to defend, combined with a NYC type event in every city across the nation could’ve threatened social unrest, driving up costs in terms of life and $

Did it really flatten the curve though, I'm not sure it did or if it did was it significant? I read somewhere where Gov. Coumo was surprised that over 80% of the hospitalizations in NY were  people who had sheltered at home. There is some evidence that lifting restrictions has caused some minor localized outbreaks but nothing that shows up in the national downward trend line.

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16 minutes ago, Dog said:

Did it really flatten the curve though, I'm not sure it did or if it did was it significant? I read somewhere where Gov. Coumo was surprised that over 80% of the hospitalizations in NY were  people who had sheltered at home. There is some evidence that lifting restrictions has caused some minor localized outbreaks but nothing that shows up in the national downward trend line.

Goddamn you’re sucking in the conspiracy soup. That shit’ll rot your brain. As Eva Dent.

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2 hours ago, Dog said:

How is trying to understand how the pandemic works being a dick?

When you invent the wheel, pm me.

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2 hours ago, Grrr... said:

They do you fucking idiot.  See the situations at the Universities, and situations from things like the Sturgis bike rally.  Trump's rally.  What is wrong with you?  Just wait for all the tiny tots who returned to normal school this fall to begin falling ill - because that's already happening in some schools.

I don't see any evidence that the easing of restrictions has influenced the death rate at all. Maybe something will show up but nothing yet.

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In related news....“The head of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health believes Norway could have brought the coronavirus pandemic under control without a lockdown, and called for the country to avoid such far-reaching measures if hit by a second wave”.

https://www.thelocal.no/20200522/norway-could-have-controlled-infection-without-lockdown-health-chief

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8 minutes ago, Dog said:

In related news....“The head of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health believes Norway could have brought the coronavirus pandemic under control without a lockdown, and called for the country to avoid such far-reaching measures if hit by a second wave”.

https://www.thelocal.no/20200522/norway-could-have-controlled-infection-without-lockdown-health-chief

Reported 22May2020

image.thumb.png.be9f20a719c3220514815471c80730c1.png

More bullshit.

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2 minutes ago, bhyde said:

Reported 22May2020

image.thumb.png.be9f20a719c3220514815471c80730c1.png

More bullshit.

Cases are a bullshit metric.

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16 minutes ago, Dog said:

I don't see any evidence that the easing of restrictions has influenced the death rate at all. Maybe something will show up but nothing yet.

Says the same Dog who kept saying Florida cases were going down when they numbers were going up

"It will go away quickly....  person!  .... man!  ... woman!   ... camera!  .... TV!"

It's just amazing. Refreshing!

- DSK

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Just now, Steam Flyer said:

Says the same Dog who kept saying Florida cases were going down when they numbers were going up

"It will go away quickly....  person!  .... man!  ... woman!   ... camera!  .... TV!"

It's just amazing. Refreshing!

- DSK

Remember when everyone was saying Gov. Kemp of Georgia was fucking up?

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4 minutes ago, Dog said:

Cases are a bullshit metric.

But Stoltenberg's hindsight isn't. Got it.

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7 minutes ago, Dog said:

Cases are a bullshit metric.

Death is just a state of mind.

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Japan’s state of emergency is set to end with new cases of the coronavirus dwindling to mere dozens. It got there despite largely ignoring the default playbook.

No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open. No high-tech apps that tracked people’s movements were deployed. The country doesn’t have a center for disease control. And even as nations were exhorted to “test, test, test,” Japan has tested just 0.2% of its population — one of the lowest rates among developed countries.

https://time.com/5842139/japan-beat-coronavirus-testing-lockdowns/

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1 minute ago, Dog said:

Remember when everyone was saying Gov. Kemp of Georgia was fucking up?

23px-Flag_of_Georgia_%28U.S._state%29.sv Georgia 283,807 6,044 25,538 [12]

 

That's almost 284,000 cases, and 6,000 dead people.

Currently about a thousand new cases a day.

I don't call that "good," do you?

- DSK

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Dog said:

Japan’s state of emergency is set to end with new cases of the coronavirus dwindling to mere dozens. It got there despite largely ignoring the default playbook.

No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open. No high-tech apps that tracked people’s movements were deployed. The country doesn’t have a center for disease control. And even as nations were exhorted to “test, test, test,” Japan has tested just 0.2% of its population — one of the lowest rates among developed countries.

https://time.com/5842139/japan-beat-coronavirus-testing-lockdowns/

"Among the more fanciful suggestions include a claim Japanese speakers emit fewer potentially virus-laden droplets when talking compared to other languages."

Well there you go. Quit spitting when you talk Dog and everything will be ok.

More nothing.

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4 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:
23px-Flag_of_Georgia_%28U.S._state%29.sv Georgia 283,807 6,044 25,538 [12]

 

That's almost 284,000 cases, and 6,000 dead people.

Currently about a thousand new cases a day.

I don't call that "good," do you?

- DSK

 

 

 

In Atlanta we have a mayor who is trying to involve reasonable, reality based solutions.

Governor shotgun rides around in a pick up truck asking if you've seen anyone picking cotton without a green card. 

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39 minutes ago, Dog said:

I don't see any evidence that the easing of restrictions has influenced the death rate at all. Maybe something will show up but nothing yet.

That’s a different question than is “when the pandemic started, did the lockdown save lives”.

I addressed the “same rate of change of death rate when lockdowns stop” phenomenon in an earlier response. 

You’ve not responded in a meaningful way to my question.

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47 minutes ago, Dog said:

I don't see any evidence that the easing of restrictions has influenced the death rate at all. Maybe something will show up but nothing yet.

Man , you are so full of shit. After the lockdown a lot more was known about the virus and at least intelligent people were educated about how to behave during the easing to prevent the case number from going up too much. Easing also doesn't mean all is allowed and a lot of procedures for "normal life" were implemented. With all this it was possible to keep the health system from being overwhelmed as it was before the lockdown. Thank God we will never know how high the numbers would have soared without a lockdown.

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8 hours ago, Dog said:

There is a compelling case that they don't. I recommend this video for those with an open mind about it.

 

EFFECTIVE Lockdowns work.

I'll be watching football tomorrow in a pub with some friends. Yesterday I went grocery shopping and didn't see a single mask. This afternoon I'll be playing poker with a bunch of guys.

 

You can't half-ass it like the US did though. NZ has 24 deaths, total. Are a death rate like the US it would be closer to 2,000.

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7 hours ago, phillysailor said:

Hey, @Dog, the vid is 37 minutes long. Is there a summary you can provide?

"Lockdowns don't work" I think is the executive summary.

Does that help?

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6 minutes ago, phillysailor said:
45 minutes ago, Dog said:

I don't see any evidence that the easing of restrictions has influenced the death rate at all. Maybe something will show up but nothing yet.

That’s a different question than is “when the pandemic started, did the lockdown save lives”.

I addressed the “same rate of change of death rate when lockdowns stop” phenomenon in an earlier response. 

You’ve not responded in a meaningful way to my question.

Nor will he.

Dog lies. A lot.

This is just one more in a long series of mendacious Dog threads in which he tries to gaslight everybody that doesn't love-love-love Trump, or hate-hate-HATE! America, as much as Dog does

- DSK

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57 minutes ago, Dog said:

Japan’s state of emergency is set to end with new cases of the coronavirus dwindling to mere dozens. It got there despite largely ignoring the default playbook.

No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open. No high-tech apps that tracked people’s movements were deployed. The country doesn’t have a center for disease control. And even as nations were exhorted to “test, test, test,” Japan has tested just 0.2% of its population — one of the lowest rates among developed countries.

https://time.com/5842139/japan-beat-coronavirus-testing-lockdowns/

Nobody knows the actual number of coronavirus cases in  , cautioned an expert on a Japanese government panel on Monday, amid growing criticism of the government for a lack of testing.

“It is certain that the actual number of cases is higher than reported. But nobody knows whether that could be 10 times, 12 times or 20 times more than reported,” Shigeru Omi, who leads a government panel of experts, told an upper house budget committee.

Japan had confirmed more than 16,500 

 cases as of Sunday, including 712 on a cruise ship quarantined near Tokyo in February. There have also been nearly 650 deaths.

However, critics say the actual number could be as much as 10 times higher, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government criticised for intentionally limiting coronavirus testing.

 

Critics argued the government had been eager to press ahead with the Tokyo Olympics at the expense of testing. But, in the end, the International Olympic Committee and Japan agreed on March 24 to postpone the Games until next year.

 

Opposition lawmakers and experts have repeatedly urged the government to ramp up testing capabilities.

More at the link

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3083876/nobody-knows-japans-true-coronavirus-numbers-expert-warns-abe

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5 minutes ago, bhyde said:

"Among the more fanciful suggestions include a claim Japanese speakers emit fewer potentially virus-laden droplets when talking compared to other languages."

Well there you go. Quit spitting when you talk Dog and everything will be ok.

More nothing.

Fucking brilliant, we’ll all “turn Japanese” and life will be fine!

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5 hours ago, Dog said:

To state the obvious....When those evacuated return the storm is gone. When a lockdown is lifted the virus is still there.

To state the even more obvious...if you have a lot less of it when you come out and you know where it is, it's easier to contact trace and isolate when people are exposed.

That is a virtual impossibility in the U.S. now and Trump has pretty much committed the country to a "burn it out and bury the bodies" approach, but responsible countries run by adults can actually do that now.

I have a little app on my phone, and every business in NZ now has a QR code on the door. I scan the QR code when I walk in. They also have sign-in books for the Luddites and intensely paranoid.

If there's an outbreak (like there was in Auckland a month back) they can trace back who might have been exposed, focus testing, and identify the possible cases and isolate them. We just went through this here, and it worked.

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13 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Fucking brilliant, we’ll all “turn Japanese” and life will be fine!

I really think so.

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7 hours ago, Dog said:

Aren't you clever.

Certainly more intelligent than you. 

You're just like a guy I have to deal with at work.. he don't want no stinking science based facts, he learns everything new needs to know from Carlson and friends. 

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1 hour ago, Dog said:

Japan’s state of emergency is set to end with new cases of the coronavirus dwindling to mere dozens. It got there despite largely ignoring the default playbook.

No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open. No high-tech apps that tracked people’s movements were deployed. The country doesn’t have a center for disease control. And even as nations were exhorted to “test, test, test,” Japan has tested just 0.2% of its population — one of the lowest rates among developed countries.

https://time.com/5842139/japan-beat-coronavirus-testing-lockdowns/

What did the people there do differently doggie dumbfuck? You know, that personal responsibility thing that conservatives used to preach?

gubmint can’t tell me what to do, I’m gonna do whatever I want, not a winning strategy, but you are a dumbfuck.

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4 hours ago, bhyde said:

What the fuck is wrong with you? We've lost 200K of our neighbors and you bring this kind of bullshit. Stop being a dick.

My wife and I were trying to make sense of this last night - how can so many Americans simply deny the seriousness and think the U.S. is doing a good job, or that the whole thing is a hoax. How can they be such massively insensitive dickheads?

330,000,000/200000 is 1,650:1

So one in every 1,650 people in the U.S. has died. As a percentage of the country, that's very small - like .06%.

 

How many of us know personally 1,650 people? In our personal and professional lives we're probably acquainted with that many. But we certainly are not close to or in daily contact with 1,650 people, and our regular circle of contacts are probably at most a couple of hundred.

So many, many people have still not been personally and directly affected by the loss of a parent, friend, grandparent, cousin, aunt, co-worker, etc. I know I have not had the sort of loss that would deeply affect me, though I know people who have both had the disease and died from it, the deaths are more of a "know about it" than a direct loss of someone whose funeral I'd travel to attend.  The grandmother of a family friend whom I've not seen in decades (the grandmother I've not see, though I've met her), the father of another friend.

 

So then it comes down to empathy and compassion - can you empathize and/or have compassion for people who are suffering and grieving who you do not directly or even indirectly know?

Empirical evidence suggests that a lack of empathy and compassion lies at the root of much of the Trumpist movement, and is a glaring symptom across almost all the "Fuck Your Feelings" crowd. If you're willing to kill someone else's grandma or say "she can just stay inside forever because it's not a risk to me" so you can get a haircut or "breathe the free air" then it's pretty clear empathy isn't your long suit. If you don't acknowledge waiters and hairdressers and grocery store stock boys as real people putting their lives at risk so you can get what you need, you may lack something in the caring department.

So it's pretty easy for people without empathy who have not been directly effected to ignore it, pretend it doesn't exist, or think it's a hoax, especially if Dear Leader promotes that world view. If your mother or your spouse or your child or your best friend dies or suffers permanent damage...then maybe you'll change your tune. Your neighbor may not be enough, if he just dies quietly without making a production of having COVID that you can see.

It's a sad state of affairs, to be sure. But we see it every damned day with the screaming anti-maskers or with our own reviled troll population.

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1 hour ago, Marty6 said:

Man , you are so full of shit. After the lockdown a lot more was known about the virus and at least intelligent people were educated about how to behave during the easing to prevent the case number from going up too much. Easing also doesn't mean all is allowed and a lot of procedures for "normal life" were implemented. With all this it was possible to keep the health system from being overwhelmed as it was before the lockdown. Thank God we will never know how high the numbers would have soared without a lockdown.

But we do have the example of the numbers other countries that did not lockdown have experienced. I haven't come across one that did not do better than we did. 

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1 minute ago, B.J. Porter said:

My wife and I were trying to make sense of this last night - how can so many Americans simply deny the seriousness and think the U.S. is doing a good job, or that the whole thing is a hoax. How can they be such massively insensitive dickheads?

330,000,000/200000 is 1,650:1

So one in every 1,650 people in the U.S. has died. As a percentage of the country, that's very small - like .06%.

 

How many of us know personally 1,650 people? In our personal and professional lives we're probably acquainted with that many. But we certainly are not close to or in daily contact with 1,650 people, and our regular circle of contacts are probably at most a couple of hundred.

So many, many people have still not been personally and directly affected by the loss of a parent, friend, grandparent, cousin, aunt, co-worker, etc. I know I have not had the sort of loss that would deeply affect me, though I know people who have both had the disease and died from it, the deaths are more of a "know about it" than a direct loss of someone whose funeral I'd travel to attend.  The grandmother of a family friend whom I've not seen in decades (the grandmother I've not see, though I've met her), the father of another friend.

 

So then it comes down to empathy and compassion - can you empathize and/or have compassion for people who are suffering and grieving who you do not directly or even indirectly know?

Empirical evidence suggests that a lack of empathy and compassion lies at the root of much of the Trumpist movement, and is a glaring symptom across almost all the "Fuck Your Feelings" crowd. If you're willing to kill someone else's grandma or say "she can just stay inside forever because it's not a risk to me" so you can get a haircut or "breathe the free air" then it's pretty clear empathy isn't your long suit. If you don't acknowledge waiters and hairdressers and grocery store stock boys as real people putting their lives at risk so you can get what you need, you may lack something in the caring department.

So it's pretty easy for people without empathy who have not been directly effected to ignore it, pretend it doesn't exist, or think it's a hoax, especially if Dear Leader promotes that world view. If your mother or your spouse or your child or your best friend dies or suffers permanent damage...then maybe you'll change your tune. Your neighbor may not be enough, if he just dies quietly without making a production of having COVID that you can see.

It's a sad state of affairs, to be sure. But we see it every damned day with the screaming anti-maskers or with our own reviled troll population.

It's not a hoax. The topic is the effectiveness of lockdowns.

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4 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

My wife and I were trying to make sense of this last night - how can so many Americans simply deny the seriousness and think the U.S. is doing a good job, or that the whole thing is a hoax. How can they be such massively insensitive dickheads?

It’s the power of the rightwing media machine in the US, and the epistemic closure of rightwingers that allows them to filter out anything not from the rightwing media machine. To morons like @Dog news only comes from his masters, he isn’t capable of learning like a normal human.

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3 minutes ago, Dog said:

But we do have the example of the numbers other countries that did not lockdown have experienced. I haven't come across one that did not do better than we did. 

PRETTY MUCH EVERY COUNTRY HAS DONE BETTER THAN US YOU IGNORANT CUNT, NO MATTER WHAT THEY DID.

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4 hours ago, phillysailor said:

I guess it begs the question... “ok, I can see that an initial lockdown is useful in order to prepare society for pandemic behaviors and allow hospitals to “catch up” with the sudden bed crunch. But would a subsequent lockdown, just because of a second wave, be worthwhile?”

It depends how good of a job you did with the first one.

When Auckland had it's first community transmission after three months, they went back into a lockdown. They did it to buy some time for contact tracing and isolation before it went wild.

That lockdown helped contain the new breakout.

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33 minutes ago, badlatitude said:
Nobody knows the actual number of coronavirus cases in  , cautioned an expert on a Japanese government panel on Monday, amid growing criticism of the government for a lack of testing.

“It is certain that the actual number of cases is higher than reported. But nobody knows whether that could be 10 times, 12 times or 20 times more than reported,” Shigeru Omi, who leads a government panel of experts, told an upper house budget committee.

Japan had confirmed more than 16,500 

 cases as of Sunday, including 712 on a cruise ship quarantined near Tokyo in February. There have also been nearly 650 deaths.

However, critics say the actual number could be as much as 10 times higher, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government criticised for intentionally limiting coronavirus testing.

 

Critics argued the government had been eager to press ahead with the Tokyo Olympics at the expense of testing. But, in the end, the International Olympic Committee and Japan agreed on March 24 to postpone the Games until next year.

 

Opposition lawmakers and experts have repeatedly urged the government to ramp up testing capabilities.

More at the link

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3083876/nobody-knows-japans-true-coronavirus-numbers-expert-warns-abe

As I said above...cases is a bullshit metric.

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Just now, Dog said:

As I said above...cases is a bullshit metric.

YOU KNOW WHATS BULLSHIT? YOUR TROLLING WITH 200,000 DEAD THANKS TO THE INCOMPETENCE OF SHITSTAIN THE RACIST. NOW TAKE YOUR WIFES HCQ AND BOTHER US NO MORE.

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2 minutes ago, Dog said:

It's not a hoax. The topic is the effectiveness of lockdowns.

So that's a positive, that you recognize that.

But now you're pushing the narrative that the efficacy of lockdowns is a hoax, so we have another wave of stupidity to deal with.

 

The U.S. half-assed it's lockdown and that ship has sailed. It probably won't work in the U.S. because it's become such a raging shithole of infection there's little chance to make ise of contact tracing and isolation. It's like cutting a firebreak once a few million acres are burning...you need WAY too many to be effective.

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4 minutes ago, Dog said:

But we do have the example of the numbers other countries that did not lockdown have experienced. I haven't come across one that did not do better than we did. 

Do you really believe their numbers? Which county with believable data had no lockdown? Countries who denied the virus existed are delivering accurate data about it? Keep on drinking the cool aid or better inhale some agent orange like your brother in mind.

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2 minutes ago, Dog said:

As I said above...cases is a bullshit metric.

You sound like your hero. "If I could do COVID all over again, I'd still let 196,000 die."

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“Our findings in Fact 2 and Fact 3 further raise doubt about the importance in NPI’s (lockdown policies in particular) in accounting for the evolution of COVID-19 transmission rates over time and across locations. Many of the regions in our sample that instated lockdown policies early on in their local epidemic, removed them later on in our estimation period, or have have not relied on mandated NPI’s much at all. Yet, effective reproduction numbers in all regions have continued to remain low relative to initial levels indicating that the removal of lockdown policies has had little effect on transmission rates”.

NPI = non-pharmaceutical intervention

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27719.pdf?fbclid=IwAR00HdB_0-UKtLS_tu9CbPxIzg3Qk2MkHovAZT6fT2mlpr02Hb8SLqQR7LE

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3 minutes ago, Marty6 said:

Do you really believe their numbers? Which county with believable data had no lockdown? Countries who denied the virus existed are delivering accurate data about it? Keep on drinking the cool aid or better inhale some agent orange like your brother in mind.

Sweden, S. Korea, Japan

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1 minute ago, Dog said:

Sweden, S. Korea, Japan

All three had at least some form of lockdown, so start again

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4 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

What's declining?  

Both cases and deaths in the US

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8 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

So that's a positive, that you recognize that.

But now you're pushing the narrative that the efficacy of lockdowns is a hoax, so we have another wave of stupidity to deal with.

 

The U.S. half-assed it's lockdown and that ship has sailed. It probably won't work in the U.S. because it's become such a raging shithole of infection there's little chance to make ise of contact tracing and isolation. It's like cutting a firebreak once a few million acres are burning...you need WAY too many to be effective.

That’s a pretty good, and painful, analogy

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8 minutes ago, Dog said:

“Our findings in Fact 2 and Fact 3 further raise doubt about the importance in NPI’s (lockdown policies in particular) in accounting for the evolution of COVID-19 transmission rates over time and across locations. Many of the regions in our sample that instated lockdown policies early on in their local epidemic, removed them later on in our estimation period, or have have not relied on mandated NPI’s much at all. Yet, effective reproduction numbers in all regions have continued to remain low relative to initial levels indicating that the removal of lockdown policies has had little effect on transmission rates”.

NPI = non-pharmaceutical intervention

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27719.pdf?fbclid=IwAR00HdB_0-UKtLS_tu9CbPxIzg3Qk2MkHovAZT6fT2mlpr02Hb8SLqQR7LE

What does stylized' mean as a modifier of facts?'

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3 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

That’s a pretty good, and painful, analogy

Yup. And @Dog is happy to watch the fire burn across the us again and again, killing and destroying lives. Republicans love misery and failure.

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