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Dog

Do lockdowns work?

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1 hour ago, Danceswithoctopus said:

It seems to me that the question Dog is trying to ask is whether MANDATED lock downs make a difference over voluntary lock downs.

Of course, Dog will correct me if I'm mistaken.

Having now redefined the question, I would submit (in response to myself) that countries with voluntary lock downs that are working aren't really comparable to the US anyway since their governments are encouraging social responsibility, not politicizing the virus as a hoax and creating confusion among their citizens. But those that have any measure of success are providing accurate and timely information about the virus to their people. Transparency and honesty in this case is necessary to gain and maintain the trust of the populace.

My worthless $.02.

 

1 hour ago, Dog said:

Looks like the Europeans are opting not to lockdown again.

“As a second wave of coronavirus infections gathers momentum across Europe, the continent’s governments are determined to avoid large-scale lockdowns and instead seek less disruptive ways to live with the new disease”.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-coronavirus-rebounds-europe-rejects-new-lockdowns-11600251871

I agree with DanceswithOctopus (are you a Watertribe? There's a lot of dancing going on with their names, too) in that it seems societies which deal with a pandemic naturally slow down and limit disease transmission through a variety of means. Some governments encourage it with good data promulgation, and some do it with enforced mandates. But there is a lot of comparing apples to apples. Economies slowed down as people got used to the fact that this pandemic was a big deal, and grandma would likely die if we were stupid.

We are seeing a difference now, though, in the reopening. Those societies which are reopening and restoring economic activity share something, no doubt. Why aren't Trumpers interested in that? Because its much easier to attack than it is to defend, or suggest. And far harder to take responsibility, admit mistakes.

Essentially, asshole liberals (aka scientists and smart people) argued for a lockdown because that was what the epidemiologists said was the proper response. This was the playbook established by a set of experts hired by the Bush administration and kept on during the Obama administration and then fired by the Trump administration. They left some stalwarts hanging around though, who went back to the files and said "lockdown."

It worked, but then America failed the second step. Ya know, management of the virus, ramping up testing for at-risk populations instead of "test the rich and those about to see the president." We didn't enforce social distancing and mask wearing, etc so here we are.

The problem with your article, Dog, is that every area (they never define what size area) dealing with a pandemic, according to your authors, gets scared after 25 deaths. At that point something about the infectivity of the virus changes, and it's not just governmental response. But the paper doesn't even begin to say WHAT changes, so neither should you. They specifically DO NOT say that lockdowns do not work, just that :

"Our finding in Fact 1 that early declines in the transmission rate of COVID-19 were nearly universal worldwide suggest that the role of region-specific NPI’s imple- mented in this early phase of the pandemic is likely overstated. This finding instead suggests that some other factor(s) common across regions drove the early and rapid transmission rate declines. While all three factors mentioned in the introduction, voluntary social distancing, the network structure of human interactions, and the nature of the disease itself, are natural contenders, disentangling their relative roles is difficult."

Basically, they did some higher math and didn't find that lockdowns were an essential step to fight the pandemic. Other stuff worked, too.

So, in America, where we were lacking in PPE, the playbook said to lockdown, hospitals weren't ready for a huge influx and NYC scared the pants off every urban leader? Lockdowns were gonna happen, and you d'na have a good argument against them. Now, in the future? Like Europe, we may decide that we are "ready" and it will take more than 25 deaths per (undefined) area to suggest to us that we should lockdown again. Epidemiology is imprecise that way sometimes since it also deals with human behavior and politics.

A few economists writing a paper isn't going to change national health and national defense policy. Not that Trump would listen to a few beancounters, anyways, unless it was politically useful.

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11 hours ago, Grrr... said:

This is the kind of fake information that should result in a vacation or a ban. 

Spoken like a true woke democrat.

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2 hours ago, Dog said:

But we do have the example of the numbers other countries that did not lockdown have experienced. I haven't come across one that did not do better than we did. 

A lying dog usually looks nice.  This cur may have rabies. 

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This topic is so moronic I have nothing to add other than posting I have nothing to add

It never ends.

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What's going on in Spain.   I noticed they had 11,193 new cases and 239 deaths for the day on Worldometers.    Texas, North Carolina and Missouri collectively  have a similar population, have fewer new cases and only 171 combined daily deaths.   

Should Spain have locked down longer?    Can somebody provide a logical argument for more lockdowns?   I'd argue their only place is a localized lockdown imposed on a hot spot burning out of control and unwilling to adapt to reality.   The alternate is to quarantine the hovels of death medieval style.    

We are seeing what I predicted months ago.  This is a marathon.   A two month or three month shutdown doesn't solve the problem..   Avoid large groups.   Hang outdoors.  Stand further apart.   Masks inside.   Test strategically as well as tactically.    If your job is so unimportant you don't need to work, do your company a favor.   Quit and let the boss figure it out for himself.   I can't count know how many items on backorder have affected me this summer.    We just can't shut the world down and expect products to be delivered to our homes, essential businesses, etc.   A generation can't watch you tube videos and claim they got a real education..    An Island may shun the outside world and prohibit its own people from returning home.   Few have the fortitude to do that.   New cases keep cropping up even in the parts of Europe that once turned themselves into ghost towns.    France has COVID deaths per million only 22% lower then the US at present.    They had 9784 new cases today.  The answer isn't another lockdown.   Its doing the rest of the stuff.   Ignore Trump.   Reduce viral lode, reducing severity of cases.   Work toward improved treatments, testing and prevention.   Slow the spread so there a critical mass of badness doesn't happen all at once.   The next stimulus should be a targeted lifeline to those businesses (gyms, conferences, trade shows, bars, etc) society decides to sacrifice for the greater good.   Panama might decide to protect cruise ships flying their flag, but that's up to them.

We aren't going to stuff the COVID genie back in her bottle.   We are going to have to deal with her for a very long time.  If a vaccine works it will merely reduce the rate to a slower trickle.    Sporadic cases will continue for years, either due to anti vaxers or vaccine failures.

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24 minutes ago, Lark said:

What's going on in Spain.   I noticed they had 11,193 new cases and 239 deaths for the day on Worldometers.    Texas, North Carolina and Missouri collectively  have a similar population, have fewer new cases and only 171 combined daily deaths.   

Should Spain have locked down longer?    Can somebody provide a logical argument for more lockdowns?   I'd argue their only place is a localized lockdown imposed on a hot spot burning out of control and unwilling to adapt to reality.   The alternate is to quarantine the hovels of death medieval style.    

We are seeing what I predicted months ago.  This is a marathon.   A two month or three month shutdown doesn't solve the problem..   Avoid large groups.   Hang outdoors.  Stand further apart.   Masks inside.   Test strategically as well as tactically.    If your job is so unimportant you don't need to work, do your company a favor.   Quit and let the boss figure it out for himself.   I can't count know how many items on backorder have affected me this summer.    We just can't shut the world down and expect products to be delivered to our homes, essential businesses, etc.   A generation can't watch you tube videos and claim they got a real education..    An Island may shun the outside world and prohibit its own people from returning home.   Few have the fortitude to do that.   New cases keep cropping up even in the parts of Europe that once turned themselves into ghost towns.    France has COVID deaths per million only 22% lower then the US at present.    They had 9784 new cases today.  The answer isn't another lockdown.   Its doing the rest of the stuff.   Ignore Trump.   Reduce viral lode, reducing severity of cases.   Work toward improved treatments, testing and prevention.   Slow the spread so there a critical mass of badness doesn't happen all at once.   The next stimulus should be a targeted lifeline to those businesses (gyms, conferences, trade shows, bars, etc) society decides to sacrifice for the greater good.   Panama might decide to protect cruise ships flying their flag, but that's up to them.

We aren't going to stuff the COVID genie back in her bottle.   We are going to have to deal with her for a very long time.  If a vaccine works it will merely reduce the rate to a slower trickle.    Sporadic cases will continue for years, either due to anti vaxers or vaccine failures.

As Trumps CDC guy said today, masks are the answer.

of course Trump then said he was mistaken.

He’s a fucking murdering criminal

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9 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

As Trumps CDC guy said today, masks are the answer.

of course Trump then said he was mistaken.

He’s a fucking murdering criminal

He's just an incompetent narcissist. The people in the Senate that crawl on their knees need to feel the burn.

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1 hour ago, Lark said:

What's going on in Spain.   I noticed they had 11,193 new cases and 239 deaths for the day on Worldometers.    Texas, North Carolina and Missouri collectively  have a similar population, have fewer new cases and only 171 combined daily deaths.   

Should Spain have locked down longer?    Can somebody provide a logical argument for more lockdowns?   I'd argue their only place is a localized lockdown imposed on a hot spot burning out of control and unwilling to adapt to reality.   The alternate is to quarantine the hovels of death medieval style.    

We are seeing what I predicted months ago.  This is a marathon.   A two month or three month shutdown doesn't solve the problem..   Avoid large groups.   Hang outdoors.  Stand further apart.   Masks inside.   Test strategically as well as tactically.    If your job is so unimportant you don't need to work, do your company a favor.   Quit and let the boss figure it out for himself.   I can't count know how many items on backorder have affected me this summer.    We just can't shut the world down and expect products to be delivered to our homes, essential businesses, etc.   A generation can't watch you tube videos and claim they got a real education..    An Island may shun the outside world and prohibit its own people from returning home.   Few have the fortitude to do that.   New cases keep cropping up even in the parts of Europe that once turned themselves into ghost towns.    France has COVID deaths per million only 22% lower then the US at present.    They had 9784 new cases today.  The answer isn't another lockdown.   Its doing the rest of the stuff.   Ignore Trump.   Reduce viral lode, reducing severity of cases.   Work toward improved treatments, testing and prevention.   Slow the spread so there a critical mass of badness doesn't happen all at once.   The next stimulus should be a targeted lifeline to those businesses (gyms, conferences, trade shows, bars, etc) society decides to sacrifice for the greater good.   Panama might decide to protect cruise ships flying their flag, but that's up to them.

We aren't going to stuff the COVID genie back in her bottle.   We are going to have to deal with her for a very long time.  If a vaccine works it will merely reduce the rate to a slower trickle.    Sporadic cases will continue for years, either due to anti vaxers or vaccine failures.

A lockdown prevents the virus from spreading. Cannot be disputed. People who are not exposed to the virus cannot catch it.

However a lockdown is not the total, final, complete answer for several reasons.

1- it can't be sustained. Somebody must grow & distribute the food, treat the water, tote the barge and lift the bale. Somebody has to doctor the ill, somebody has to work in the stores.

2- Some people.... a much high number in the USA but people everywhere tend to be rebellious; and over time, nobody will observe all precautions perfectly.

And guess what, science already knew this. Nobody (except Trumpalos, phrased in the negative) EVER said that a lockdown solves the problem. Testing doesn't solve the problem. All lockdown achieves is a partial quarantine, with a scattergun approach.

Without large scale testing, large scale tracing, and effective isolation of cases and pockets of likely cases, waves of this viral disease will come and go with the whims of the population getting tired of semi-isolation and/or inspired to FREEDUMB! by their political aspirations.

With large scale testing, tracing, and effective isolation of identified cases.... so everybody else can get back to almost-normal.... there is no need for a lockdown.

It isn't black/white or yes/no. It isn't a single solution. It isn't magic.

The USA is totally fucked because most of the people have been suckered into a false narrative, into believing that it must be lockdown or total opening. That if we just let the plague rip thru the country, the economy will somehow be fine.... tell me, in NYC when they were stacking bodies in refrigerated trucks, how was the restaurant trade? What was going on, on Broadway?

We -still- don't have testing. We barely have a pretense of tracing. And I've heard of more cases of people being ordered into isolation saying "Fuck that, you can't tell me what to do" than I have of outbreaks being stifled by science and cooperation with long term goals.

- DSK

 

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The lockdown was never sold as the final solution, also not as a solution to  the death rate. It was a temporary solution to achieve  several thing at a time when cases where exponentially increasing every day and preventing collapse of health system:

- create capacity in hospitals

- create test capacities

- create guidelines for businesses, schools, government etc to open up again

- educate people on best practices

and much, much more.

The reopening also doesn't mean everything is back to normal, at least here in Germany. There are still limits on sizes of gatherings, certain businesses closed, wearing a mask in certain places is mandatory, very few or no spectators at sport events ... Additionally there were and still are local lockdowns enforced in hot spots where e.g. schools and businesses get closed, size for gatherings further limited again and so on. Basically the lockdown switched from global to local since the infection events are also local and not global.

And guess what, the number of new cases after the lockdown have been pretty stable with a slight increase in the last month or two. This allowed the hospitals not getting overwhelmed and the responsible agency to test, trace and quarantine people who came into contact with an infected person. All this unfortunately requires some pretty harsh fines for people who don't follow the rules, since there is no cure for stupidity, to prevent creation of infection clusters like the one created by a US military employee in Garmisch last week who went partying while showing symptoms and being ordered into quarantine till the test result comes back (i hope she has to pay a huge fine and the charge her with bodily harm and send her to prison). She infected over 50 other people and the town now faces a stricter local lockdown and i bet they love her.

So did it work? Hell yeah, it did. Without it we would have had widespread catastrophic situations similar to the ones we unfortunately had to witness in some areas (China, Italy, Spain, NY) in the early stages of the pandemic.

 

 

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11 hours ago, phillysailor said:

 

I agree with DanceswithOctopus (are you a Watertribe? There's a lot of dancing going on with their names, too) in that it seems societies which deal with a pandemic naturally slow down and limit disease transmission through a variety of means. Some governments encourage it with good data promulgation, and some do it with enforced mandates. But there is a lot of comparing apples to apples. Economies slowed down as people got used to the fact that this pandemic was a big deal, and grandma would likely die if we were stupid.

We are seeing a difference now, though, in the reopening. Those societies which are reopening and restoring economic activity share something, no doubt. Why aren't Trumpers interested in that? Because its much easier to attack than it is to defend, or suggest. And far harder to take responsibility, admit mistakes.

Essentially, asshole liberals (aka scientists and smart people) argued for a lockdown because that was what the epidemiologists said was the proper response. This was the playbook established by a set of experts hired by the Bush administration and kept on during the Obama administration and then fired by the Trump administration. They left some stalwarts hanging around though, who went back to the files and said "lockdown."

It worked, but then America failed the second step. Ya know, management of the virus, ramping up testing for at-risk populations instead of "test the rich and those about to see the president." We didn't enforce social distancing and mask wearing, etc so here we are.

The problem with your article, Dog, is that every area (they never define what size area) dealing with a pandemic, according to your authors, gets scared after 25 deaths. At that point something about the infectivity of the virus changes, and it's not just governmental response. But the paper doesn't even begin to say WHAT changes, so neither should you. They specifically DO NOT say that lockdowns do not work, just that :

"Our finding in Fact 1 that early declines in the transmission rate of COVID-19 were nearly universal worldwide suggest that the role of region-specific NPI’s imple- mented in this early phase of the pandemic is likely overstated. This finding instead suggests that some other factor(s) common across regions drove the early and rapid transmission rate declines. While all three factors mentioned in the introduction, voluntary social distancing, the network structure of human interactions, and the nature of the disease itself, are natural contenders, disentangling their relative roles is difficult."

Basically, they did some higher math and didn't find that lockdowns were an essential step to fight the pandemic. Other stuff worked, too.

So, in America, where we were lacking in PPE, the playbook said to lockdown, hospitals weren't ready for a huge influx and NYC scared the pants off every urban leader? Lockdowns were gonna happen, and you d'na have a good argument against them. Now, in the future? Like Europe, we may decide that we are "ready" and it will take more than 25 deaths per (undefined) area to suggest to us that we should lockdown again. Epidemiology is imprecise that way sometimes since it also deals with human behavior and politics.

A few economists writing a paper isn't going to change national health and national defense policy. Not that Trump would listen to a few beancounters, anyways, unless it was politically useful.

Thank you for responding to the topic. I supported the lockdowns too and believe it or not have not concluded that they don't work. However there is a compelling and growing case to be made against them and not just by the unscientific and stupid. We should be openminded and objective in our assessment of the effectiveness of our responses. This has turned out to be the most unpopular proposition I have ever offered.  The herd mentality is strong.

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We've been 8 weeks in stage 4 lockdown. Case numbers falling from 700 pd to under 50.

 

We have 5 million people under curfew,  stores closed, we can only go 5km from home, masks are manditory outside the home. It's tough.

with massive testing and contact tracing, It's working.

https://www.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions-roadmaps

Summary of Steps towards COVID Normal

  1. First Step

    Regional Victoria

    First step only applies to Metro Melbourne.

    Metro Melbourne (11:59pm 13 September)

    Expanded social interaction.

  2. Second Step

    Regional Victoria (11:59pm 13 September)

    Social bubbles, visitors and staged return of education.

    Metro Melbourne (28 September subject to trigger points and public health advice)

    Social bubbles, phased return of some workforces and education.

  3. Third Step

    Regional Victoria (11:59pm 16 September)

    Increased reopening for sport, recreation, ceremonies and special occasions.

    Metro Melbourne (26 October subject to trigger points and public health advice)

    Major industries return, increased reopening for education, sport, recreation, ceremonies and special occasions.

  4. Last Step

    Statewide (23 November subject to trigger points and public health advice)

    Increased numbers for gatherings and hospitality.

  5. COVID Normal

    Statewide (subject to trigger points and public health advice)

    No restrictions for gatherings, visitors, hospitality or sport.

    “Trigger points” means a point for review by our public health team to consider any potential changes to the restrictions, based on case numbers, testing numbers and other factors.

    Roadmaps by region

    Metropolitan Melbourne roadmap

    Regional Victoria roadmap

    How we live - roadmap downloads

    Industry restrictions by region

    Metropolitan Melbourne industry restrictions

    Regional Victoria industry restrictions

    How we work - roadmap downloads

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6 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

Summary of Steps towards COVID Normal 

That's how it should be. Public and understandable roadmaps instead of arbitrary bullshit by a madman.

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2 minutes ago, mathystuff said:

That's how it should be. Public and understandable roadmaps instead of arbitrary bullshit by a madman.

Is it little don, Boris or the dog?

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2 minutes ago, hasher said:

Is it little don, Boris or the dog?

Boris wised up a bit after catching the "just a flu".

Dogs only political responsibility is sniffing Trumps behind.

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3 hours ago, Dog said:

Thank you for responding to the topic. I supported the lockdowns too and believe it or not have not concluded that they don't work. However there is a compelling and growing case to be made against them and not just by the unscientific and stupid. We should be openminded and objective in our assessment of the effectiveness of our responses. This has turned out to be the most unpopular proposition I have ever offered.  The herd mentality is strong.

I’ve been responding to the topic since my first reply to your topic. We must all congratulate you on your open mindedness to even consider our viewpoints. 

As I’ve said repeatedly, the initial lockdowns were the “right” response at the time, and @Marty6 points out why and how they were successful. Your opinion is cute, but not all that meaningful since those were the experts whose job it was to examine our country and its resources, different possible viruses, the time of year, the national preparedness and more in order to come up with a response.

Next time (or next wave) the experts will certainly take arguments presented in this thread into account, and more, when crafting a response. But will the administration listen?

Republicans are always reminding us that different communities and states may have special situations which justify a unique response to a situation. Claiming that a single approach to a pandemic is the only & best way forward around the globe seems to fly in the face of this logic. It also breeds dependence on the WHO and other global entities for expert knowledge and advice.

No thanks. Fund our pandemic team, rely on scientists and politicians, economists, sociologists, business leaders and other disciplines to craft the best response for our country: ya know, a functioning government the likes of which the Democrats offer and want.

If you want the political calculus of a rich, entitled and highly protected, self-absorbed scientific debutante guiding our pandemic response, vote for Trump.

And have a nice day.

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20 hours ago, phillysailor said:

I agree with DanceswithOctopus (are you a Watertribe? . . . )

<hijack>

I was granted the moniker during a dive trip to God's Pocket in 1997. I encountered an octopus at around 100' (so I was a tad narced) and the rest of the dive group watched as I took my glove off and played with it for a few minutes. It followed me around for another ten minutes or so until I started to ascend. Upon returning to the surface I was dubbed, Danceswithoctopus.

</hijack>

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9 hours ago, Dog said:

Thank you for responding to the topic. I supported the lockdowns too and believe it or not have not concluded that they don't work. However there is a compelling and growing case to be made against them and not just by the unscientific and stupid. We should be openminded and objective in our assessment of the effectiveness of our responses. This has turned out to be the most unpopular proposition I have ever offered.  The herd mentality is strong.

Oh look, @Dog lying. Here’s @Dog then. Once again, FUCK YOU FOR WASTING SIX MONTHS OF PEOPLES LIVES BECAUSE STUPID CUNTS LIKE YOU ONLY TROLL. DIAGF.

On 3/19/2020 at 1:13 PM, Dog said:

I just came across this...

“South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. South Korea’s success may hold lessons for other countries—and also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence.

Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.

South Korea’s experience shows that “diagnostic capacity at scale is key to epidemic control,” says Raina MacIntyre, an emerging infectious disease scholar at the University of New South Wales, Sydney. “Contact tracing is also very influential in epidemic control, as is case isolation,” she says”.

sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success

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9 hours ago, mathystuff said:

Boris wised up a bit after catching the "just a flu".

Dogs only political responsibility is sniffing Trumps behind.

He's past that now. Went from sniffing to a rib job, now he's licking Trump's prostate.

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Talked to a buddy in France. Their version of the Trumpaloos, the yellow vests are out in force in the streets, maskless. They are now approaching US rates of new infections/day.

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15 hours ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

Oh look, @Dog lying. Here’s @Dog then. Once again, FUCK YOU FOR WASTING SIX MONTHS OF PEOPLES LIVES BECAUSE STUPID CUNTS LIKE YOU ONLY TROLL. DIAGF.

I cited S Korea up the thread as well. They are an example of a country that did very well and didn't shut down.

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On 9/17/2020 at 8:46 PM, mathystuff said:

That's how it should be. Public and understandable roadmaps instead of arbitrary bullshit by a madman.

Dan Andrews (our Premier) is possibly going to pay for this at the next 'lection.

Refreshingly..he says he'll think about  that later.

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24 minutes ago, Dog said:

I cited S Korea up the thread as well. They are an example of a country that did very well and didn't shut down.

Why is that dog? Couldn’t have been widespread mask use, widespread testing and tracing could it? Dunce.

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16 hours ago, Danceswithoctopus said:

<hijack>

I was granted the moniker during a dive trip to God's Pocket in 1997. I encountered an octopus at around 100' (so I was a tad narced) and the rest of the dive group watched as I took my glove off and played with it for a few minutes. It followed me around for another ten minutes or so until I started to ascend. Upon returning to the surface I was dubbed, Danceswithoctopus.

</hijack>

Blue-ringed octopus venom causes numbness, vomiting, suffocation, death

10 Amazing Facts about the Blue Ringed Octopus - Passport Ocean

obviously not one of these cuties.

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2 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Why is that dog? Couldn’t have been widespread mask use, widespread testing and tracing could it? Dunce.

Could be....but it wasn't a lockdown.

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yes

end of

the rest is just fluff put out by ef wits who don't like anything that might inconvenience them

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How the fuck did this thread even get this long? :lol:

Oh, I know. You people enjoy bending 'ol dog over.

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4 hours ago, Dog said:

I cited S Korea up the thread as well. They are an example of a country that did very well and didn't shut down.

Yes, they did have a wide spread shut down, or lockdown.

They ended it when wide spread testing and tracing allowed the isolation of individual cases instead of the general population.

Why do you lie about it?

- DSK

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Damn, Dog... you've outdone yourself with this one. 

If people not being in contact with one another doesn't affect contagion... what are you proposing does affect the virus?  Fuckin' Magic

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Paging @Dog

better get on the horn with Bibi, he doesn’t have your superior knowledge:

In Israel, a surging virus and a new lockdown greet the year’s holiest days.

As Israelis prepare to celebrate the holiest days on the Jewish calendar under a fresh lockdown, organizing prayer services is proving to be more of a mathematical brainteaser than a spiritual exercise.

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2 hours ago, frenchie said:

Damn, Dog... you've outdone yourself with this one. 

If people not being in contact with one another doesn't affect contagion... what are you proposing does affect the virus?  Fuckin' Magic

I get that it's counter-intuitive but there's a growing body of evidence that suggests that lockdowns, at least as we practice them, have not been that effective and the costs may outweigh the benefits. Maybe we implemented them too late, maybe they are too loose, I don't know but I don't see a glaring difference between countries that used them and those that did not. 

“Six months into the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. has now carried out two large-scale experiments in public health—first, in March and April, the lockdown of the economy to arrest the spread of the virus, and second, since mid-April, the reopening of the economy. The results are in. Counterintuitive though it may be, statistical analysis shows that locking down the economy didn’t contain the disease’s spread and reopening it didn’t unleash a second wave of infections”...WSJ


 

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7 minutes ago, Dog said:

lockdowns, at least as we practice them,

There's never been a lockdown here. Use another word.

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3 minutes ago, Dog said:

I get that it's counter-intuitive but there's a growing body of evidence that suggests that lockdowns, at least as we practice them, have not been that effective and the costs may outweigh the benefits. Maybe we implemented them too late, maybe they are too loose, I don't know but I don't see a glaring difference between countries that used them and those that did not. 

“Six months into the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. has now carried out two large-scale experiments in public health—first, in March and April, the lockdown of the economy to arrest the spread of the virus, and second, since mid-April, the reopening of the economy. The results are in. Counterintuitive though it may be, statistical analysis shows that locking down the economy didn’t contain the disease’s spread and reopening it didn’t unleash a second wave of infections”...WSJ


 

The USA has never had a lockdown

No wonder it hasn't been effective!

- DSK

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6 minutes ago, Dog said:

I get that it's counter-intuitive but there's a growing body of evidence that suggests that lockdowns, at least as we practice them, have not been that effective and the costs may outweigh the benefits. Maybe we implemented them too late, maybe they are too loose, I don't know but I don't see a glaring difference between countries that used them and those that did not. 

“Six months into the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. has now carried out two large-scale experiments in public health—first, in March and April, the lockdown of the economy to arrest the spread of the virus, and second, since mid-April, the reopening of the economy. The results are in. Counterintuitive though it may be, statistical analysis shows that locking down the economy didn’t contain the disease’s spread and reopening it didn’t unleash a second wave of infections...WSJ


 

@Dog quoting the stupidest man alive, Donald Luskin

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6 minutes ago, Dog said:

I get that it's counter-intuitive but there's a growing body of evidence that suggests that lockdowns, at least as we practice them, have not been that effective and the costs may outweigh the benefits. Maybe we implemented them too late, maybe they are too loose, I don't know but I don't see a glaring difference between countries that used them and those that did not. 

“Six months into the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. has now carried out two large-scale experiments in public health—first, in March and April, the lockdown of the economy to arrest the spread of the virus, and second, since mid-April, the reopening of the economy. The results are in. Counterintuitive though it may be, statistical analysis shows that locking down the economy didn’t contain the disease’s spread and reopening it didn’t unleash a second wave of infections”...WSJ


 

The premise in the quote is the closure/shutdown/lockdown was complete and lasted long enough to have a measurable impact on the virus (eliminate transmission) before the second "experiment" commenced.

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4 minutes ago, Bus Driver said:

The premise in the quote is the closure/shutdown/lockdown was complete and lasted long enough to have a measurable impact on the virus (eliminate transmission) before the second "experiment" commenced.

That’s a little too nuanced an analysis for Donald Luskin. Luskin is the idiot they truck out to write opinion articles about the Laffer Curve being a real curve with an actual magical point, that’s always shaped such that tax cuts are the answer.

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On 9/16/2020 at 3:22 PM, Shortforbob said:

Ivor Cummins is also a Keto Diet Kook.

So he presents an interesting collection of data regarding the pandemic and how it has developed in different countries.
His conclusions are up for debate as I see it, but it was interesting to watch.
And your contribution to the debate is to bring up his diet.

You are the essence of what is wrong with the world today.

But on a diet note - if you think that stuffing your face with sugar and starch is the way to good health, it might explain why your brain is shutting down.

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1 hour ago, ModernViking said:

So he presents an interesting collection of data regarding the pandemic and how it has developed in different countries.
His conclusions are up for debate as I see it, but it was interesting to watch.
And your contribution to the debate is to bring up his diet.

You are the essence of what is wrong with the world today.

I’m pretty sure the essence of what’s wrong with the world is morons surfing social media to find opinions they think “interesting” from grifting cranks.

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1 minute ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

I’m pretty sure the essence of what’s wrong with the world is morons surfing social media to find opinions they think “interesting” from grifting cranks.

"Interesting" is becoming synonymous with "delusional right wing conspiracy theory".

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1 hour ago, ModernViking said:

So he presents an interesting collection of data regarding the pandemic and how it has developed in different countries.
His conclusions are up for debate as I see it, but it was interesting to watch.
And your contribution to the debate is to bring up his diet.

You are the essence of what is wrong with the world today.

But on a diet note - if you think that stuffing your face with sugar and starch is the way to good health, it might explain why your brain is shutting down.

His conclusions may be "up for debate" but once you take actual data and actual science.... the kind that is verifiable and repeatable, not wofsey-like made-up bullshit and cold-fusion-like delusions....the debate is over very quickly.

One should keep an open mind, but not so open that your brain falls out.

His conclusions are in the same range of bullshit as "Drinking Orange Paint Cures Cancer!" and the proof is that you read it on the internet 500 times.

- DSK

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2 hours ago, ModernViking said:

So he presents an interesting collection of data regarding the pandemic and how it has developed in different countries.
His conclusions are up for debate as I see it, but it was interesting to watch.
And your contribution to the debate is to bring up his diet.

You are the essence of what is wrong with the world today.

But on a diet note - if you think that stuffing your face with sugar and starch is the way to good health, it might explain why your brain is shutting down.

If you PM me we have Krispey Cremes that are nothing but fat and sugar.  I'll set you up.  It's even legal.

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8 hours ago, hasher said:

If you PM me we have Krispey Cremes that are nothing but fat and sugar.  I'll set you up.  It's even legal.

why the fuck would I eat that sugar shit?
Are you stupid?

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8 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

His conclusions may be "up for debate" but once you take actual data and actual science.... the kind that is verifiable and repeatable, not wofsey-like made-up bullshit and cold-fusion-like delusions....the debate is over very quickly.

One should keep an open mind, but not so open that your brain falls out.

His conclusions are in the same range of bullshit as "Drinking Orange Paint Cures Cancer!" and the proof is that you read it on the internet 500 times.

- DSK

What data is wrong in his presentation in the video ?

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11 hours ago, ModernViking said:

So he presents an interesting collection of data regarding the pandemic and how it has developed in different countries.
His conclusions are up for debate as I see it, but it was interesting to watch.
And your contribution to the debate is to bring up his diet.

You are the essence of what is wrong with the world today.

But on a diet note - if you think that stuffing your face with sugar and starch is the way to good health, it might explain why your brain is shutting down.

I didn't bring up his diet, I brought up the fact that he's a published author of a Keto Diet book.

Seems like he has a habit of pushing dangerous information on topics he's not qualified to publish on.

and not that it's any of your business but my diet's sensibly Mediterranean and Japanese... mostly :D

 

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2 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

I didn't bring up his diet, I brought up the fact that he's a published author of a Keto Diet book.

Seems like he has a habit of pushing dangerous information on topics he's not qualified to publish on.

and not that it's any of your business but my diet's sensibly Mediterranean and Japanese... mostly :D

 

Good luck with that, but you didn't have to share - I don't care.

But I would like to know what you think is dangerous information in the data he posted?

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4 minutes ago, ModernViking said:

Good luck with that, but you didn't have to share - I don't care.

But I would like to know what you think is dangerous information in the data he posted?

In this pandemic, most misinformation is dangerous. He lost me in the first few minutes when he called it another flu and said that 80% were already immune because of their existing immunity to other coronaviruses. Very sciency.

I waste a lot of time, but not on this crap.

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1 hour ago, Shortforbob said:

In this pandemic, most misinformation is dangerous. He lost me in the first few minutes when he called it another flu and said that 80% were already immune because of their existing immunity to other coronaviruses. Very sciency.

I waste a lot of time, but not on this crap.

He didn't call it another flu and that a large segment of the population has some pre-existing resistance to the virus is obvious. What's the real reason you're so dismissive?

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1 hour ago, Dog said:

He didn't call it another flu and that a large segment of the population has some pre-existing resistance to the virus is obvious. What's the real reason you're so dismissive?

re listen to the first 2 minutes. But the reason that I'm dismissive is that he's not qualified in the field, doesn't have any credentials.

Why would I waste 37 minutes of that when I can find any number of better credited sources?

I'm not a sciency person and freely acknowledge what I don't understand the science behind this. This thing is serious so people like me are better accepting their limitations and going to accredited sources than diving down rabbit holes.

I trust the science people our govenments have appointed over the years to manage these things even though normally they (the current government) are on the other side. 

Why? because all our politicians are behind the appointed science people. People who've been working in these roles across electoral cycles.

They are all taking this seriously and are working together.

If I was American under the current admin, I probably wouldn't...because..TRUMP

I'm living in lockdown, I see the daily numbers coming down hard.

Hard lockdowns work to contain this when properly accompanied with testing and tracing, masks, movement restrictions and with a proper roadmap out.

I'm living it.

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1 hour ago, Dog said:

He didn't call it another flu and that a large segment of the population has some pre-existing resistance to the virus is obvious. What's the real reason you're so dismissive?

I missed this bit. Typical dog.

He said immunity not resistance. "80% of people are defacto immune" 

80% of people do not have a pre existing immunity to this NOT FLU.

When you start an argument with a glibly slipped in false premise?

It's targeted at fools.

 

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3 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

In this pandemic, most misinformation is dangerous. He lost me in the first few minutes when he called it another flu and said that 80% were already immune because of their existing immunity to other coronaviruses. Very sciency.

I waste a lot of time, but not on this crap.

No you just want to find an excuse to not listen to something that might not fit your narrative.
I don't agree that it is another flu, and I haven't seen the number 80 percent elsewhere, so there is that.
But I still found the graphs with comparisons between different countries interesting, and I found that useful.
There is so much we don't know about how viruses spread, and this kind of info can give os more insight.
If you look at sweden now, there are very few new cases, and they have had no hard lockdown at all, while the neigbour Denmark did a hard lockdown in the spring, and now seems to be paying the price.  Stuff like that is extremely important to dive into, in order to be better prepared for the next one, which will probably be a lot more deadly.


You, and many others like you, does not want to learn anything, or form your own opinion, because you treat viruses as polictics. It is so fucking sad.

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10 minutes ago, ModernViking said:

....


You, and many others like you, does not want to learn anything, or form your own opinion, because you treat viruses as polictics. It is so fucking sad.

No, I treat viruses as science, and consider the science the same as I do the science that underlays engineering.

There are an infinite number of possible solutions, but only some are achievable. And of those, only some are practical.

I do not want to drive over bridges based on wishful thinking and made-up bullshit. To do good engineering one needs real science. To make good pubic health policy (and "public health policy" is anathema to righties, all by itself. So there's your politics) also needs real science.

There were a few physicists who would not give up the idea of cold fusion (may still be some) but they ended up as quacks. Slightly different, the guy who thought they were seeing cold fusion were really seeing something, but they were measuring the wrong stuff and to their credit, when it turned out to not be repeatable they said "gee we were wrong" (which is how science is supposed to work).

- DSK

edit to add: saying "Sweden did not have a lockdown" is bullshit.

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12 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

No, I treat viruses as science, and consider the science the same as I do the science that underlays engineering.

There are an infinite number of possible solutions, but only some are achievable. And of those, only some are practical.

I do not want to drive over bridges based on wishful thinking and made-up bullshit. To do good engineering one needs real science. To make good pubic health policy (and "public health policy" is anathema to righties, all by itself. So there's your politics) also needs real science.

There were a few physicists who would not give up the idea of cold fusion (may still be some) but they ended up as quacks. Slightly different, the guy who thought they were seeing cold fusion were really seeing something, but they were measuring the wrong stuff and to their credit, when it turned out to not be repeatable they said "gee we were wrong" (which is how science is supposed to work).

- DSK

edit to add: saying "Sweden did not have a lockdown" is bullshit.

Dude I stayed there for 2 months during the peak of cases (project in Gothenburg - 2nd largest city in Sweden), so you Sir are wrong.
Everything was open and people were at work, kids at school and no masks.

 

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Suggesting 80% having some kind of preexisting immunity is crazy.

We know that nearly everyone got it in closed off environments like cruising ships.

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33 minutes ago, mathystuff said:

Suggesting 80% having some kind of preexisting immunity is crazy.

We know that nearly everyone got it in closed off environments like cruising ships.

It's not crazy at all.  Studies have shown that as many as 80% of people who test positive are asymptomatic and others experience only minor symptoms.

 

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Off course they work ! 
but at what cost ?  CV-19 is clearly not the health threat to the overall population we all feared in the early days of the pandemic. So I think they are a overreaction at this point. Taking the well publicized precautions along with personal risk profile has been a great success. 

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4 minutes ago, Dog said:

It's not crazy at all.  Studies have shown that as many as 80% of people who test positive are asymptomatic and others experience only minor symptoms.

 

The highest number I've seen for asymptomatic carriers is 50%.

Kind of a fuzzy number obviously, until everybody is tested on a regular basis, it will be impossible. But there's a huge difference between 50% and 80%

- DSK

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"The virus, when it comes in, new, rapidly hits about 20% of the population.  So, around 80%, it's becoming clear, are already de facto immune - through cross-immunity, T Cell immunity, mucosal immunity, from prior Coronavirus."

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46 minutes ago, mathystuff said:

Suggesting 80% having some kind of preexisting immunity is crazy.

We know that nearly everyone got it in closed off environments like cruising ships.

Quite an exaggeration... true the confined environment and close proximity to each other along with an older demographic was prime spreading conditions, “ nearly everyone DID NOT come down with CV -19

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For clarity:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200810/People-may-have-a-pre-existing-immune-response-to-COVID-19-thanks-to-common-colds.aspx

" The researchers from the La Jolla Institute for Immunology (LJI) have found that previous infections with common cold viruses KHU1, OC43, NL63, and 229E can train the immune system to detect and recognize SARS-CoV-2. "

" The team also found that 40 to 60 percent of people who were never exposed to SARS-CoV-2 had T cells that reacted to the virus. The immune systems of these people recognized fragments of the virus it had never seen before, which may explain why some develop only mild symptoms and why some are asymptomatic. "

 

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52 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

For clarity:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200810/People-may-have-a-pre-existing-immune-response-to-COVID-19-thanks-to-common-colds.aspx

" The researchers from the La Jolla Institute for Immunology (LJI) have found that previous infections with common cold viruses KHU1, OC43, NL63, and 229E can train the immune system to detect and recognize SARS-CoV-2. "

" The team also found that 40 to 60 percent of people who were never exposed to SARS-CoV-2 had T cells that reacted to the virus. The immune systems of these people recognized fragments of the virus it had never seen before, which may explain why some develop only mild symptoms and why some are asymptomatic. "

 

Doesn't your body react to any intrusive organism?  The problem is the sort of effectiveness.  Your immune system could do nothing, react to produce antibodies, or create a cytokine storm.

Do nothing produces the asymptomatic infections, the reaction produces what we see as symptoms of the flu or COVID. The storm can kill when your immune system goes rogue.

The article points out, factually, that we already have a number of Coronaviruses that can infect humans and some folks have already defenses against that type of attack.

This is one problem with using Coronavirus as the nomenclature.

It's like "be on the lookout for a man driving a car".

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1 hour ago, Saorsa said:

The article points out, factually, that we already have a number of Coronaviruses that can infect humans and some folks have already defenses against that type of attack.

This is one problem with using Coronavirus as the nomenclature.

It's like "be on the lookout for a man driving a car".

:lol: dumbfuck arguing not to call a spade a spade cu he’s a dumbfuck

Almost hit 3,000 cases in your shithole, well done!fi

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3 hours ago, ModernViking said:

Dude I stayed there for 2 months during the peak of cases (project in Gothenburg - 2nd largest city in Sweden), so you Sir are wrong.
Everything was open and people were at work, kids at school and no masks.

 

And yet mobility data and business data shows things were down. So who’s right?

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3 hours ago, ModernViking said:


If you look at sweden now, there are very few new cases, and they have had no hard lockdown at all, while the neigbour Denmark did a hard lockdown in the spring, and now seems to be paying the price.

Denmark had a marginally different economy, bullshitter.

But this is the motivated rightwing bulllshitter in action.

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On 9/19/2020 at 10:00 AM, Saorsa said:

Doesn't your body react to any intrusive organism?  The problem is the sort of effectiveness.  Your immune system could do nothing, react to produce antibodies, or create a cytokine storm.

Do nothing produces the asymptomatic infections, the reaction produces what we see as symptoms of the flu or COVID. The storm can kill when your immune system goes rogue.

The article points out, factually, that we already have a number of Coronaviruses that can infect humans and some folks have already defenses against that type of attack.

This is one problem with using Coronavirus as the nomenclature.

It's like "be on the lookout for a man driving a car".

No.   It does not.  Not really relevant to COVID but incorrect.

On 9/19/2020 at 8:54 AM, cmilliken said:

For clarity:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200810/People-may-have-a-pre-existing-immune-response-to-COVID-19-thanks-to-common-colds.aspx

" The researchers from the La Jolla Institute for Immunology (LJI) have found that previous infections with common cold viruses KHU1, OC43, NL63, and 229E can train the immune system to detect and recognize SARS-CoV-2. "

" The team also found that 40 to 60 percent of people who were never exposed to SARS-CoV-2 had T cells that reacted to the virus. The immune systems of these people recognized fragments of the virus it had never seen before, which may explain why some develop only mild symptoms and why some are asymptomatic. "

 

This would be good.   Innate immunity, lifestyle changes are more difficult to address in America.    Partial learned immunity would minimize the worst case numbers considerably.   It also makes me optimistic mild cases and light exposure thanks to social distancing and masks inside will translate to less carnage this winter, as immunity naturally builds.    Since uncounted deaths mean our total death loss is already higher then CDC’s 200,000 number by more then 20%, that would be very good for society.    Those with chronic challenges after recovery are scary enough.
 

New Jersey, Peru, Belgium and Spain show Covid is a serious disease, able to kill over one of a thousand people.    Peru actually is a lock down failure.   They started well but couldn’t control indigenous people migrating,    They couldn’t lock down forever.   India shows widespread disease in a large population with good immune systems doesn’t have to look like the Great Plagues.   Though deaths are certainly much higher then official numbers, they aren’t numbering in the tens of millions in a country of a billion people.    If disease fatality rate was .04 and herd immunity was reached at only 60% low end estimates predict 24 million extra deaths.  This doesn’t look as bad as it could be, or the next pandemic may be.   Instead of 15-40 of every thousand dying, uncontrolled areas may ‘only’ lose 1 in 500.   Hopefully Republicans aren’t in charge if a really bad disease hits.  Hopefully whoever is in charge realizes they aren’t an epidemiologist or virologist, and doesn’t think they were born with the judgement of a trained professional.
 

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1 hour ago, Lark said:

New Jersey, Peru, Belgium and Spain show Covid is a serious disease, able to kill over one of a thousand people.    Peru actually is a lock down failure.   They started well but couldn’t control indigenous people migrating,    They couldn’t lock down forever.   India shows widespread disease in a large population with good immune systems doesn’t have to look like the Great Plagues.  

That was always one of my concerns with California/Arizona/New Mexico/Texas.  'Locking down' Americans in those states is one thing - preventing spread of the virus due to trade with Mexico is a whole different issue.  Mexico relies on the legal trade and truly closing down seems beyond what's practically possible unless truly draconian measures are authorized.  Congress can't agree to give US States money - let alone sending half a trillion to prop up the Mexican government if a full shut down were instituted.  Lockdowns can buy time but the effectiveness depends a lot on location.

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22 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

That was always one of my concerns with California/Arizona/New Mexico/Texas.  'Locking down' Americans in those states is one thing - preventing spread of the virus due to trade with Mexico is a whole different issue.  Mexico relies on the legal trade and truly closing down seems beyond what's practically possible unless truly draconian measures are authorized.  Congress can't agree to give US States money - let alone sending half a trillion to prop up the Mexican government if a full shut down were instituted.  Lockdowns can buy time but the effectiveness depends a lot on location.

I hadn’t considered Mexico as a completely failed state thanks to a successful lockout.   I never went past economic damage to US investors and continued backorders affecting the rest of us.    I used to exercise with a long haul truck driver that occasionally was sent to border factories.   He hated that run since he was often parked for a day or two waiting for his load, presumably logistics and customs delays passed on to the driver.    I can imagine their COVID exposure now.

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1 hour ago, Lark said:

I hadn’t considered Mexico as a completely failed state thanks to a successful lockout.   I never went past economic damage to US investors and continued backorders affecting the rest of us.    I used to exercise with a long haul truck driver that occasionally was sent to border factories.   He hated that run since he was often parked for a day or two waiting for his load, presumably logistics and customs delays passed on to the driver.    I can imagine their COVID exposure now.

I apologize - I wasn't clear.  I think Mexico WOULD have become a failed state if the trade with the US were unilaterally discontinued in order to 'hard lockdown' states like California and Texas.

That's one area where the 'we never locked down' folks have a point - throughout the pandemic, we've continued to move goods and services across the border.  And with that travel, I don't think it was ever realistic to 'crush' Covid.  Each country was always going to serve as a new vector for the other.

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On 9/19/2020 at 5:54 AM, cmilliken said:

For clarity:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200810/People-may-have-a-pre-existing-immune-response-to-COVID-19-thanks-to-common-colds.aspx

" The researchers from the La Jolla Institute for Immunology (LJI) have found that previous infections with common cold viruses KHU1, OC43, NL63, and 229E can train the immune system to detect and recognize SARS-CoV-2. "

" The team also found that 40 to 60 percent of people who were never exposed to SARS-CoV-2 had T cells that reacted to the virus. The immune systems of these people recognized fragments of the virus it had never seen before, which may explain why some develop only mild symptoms and why some are asymptomatic. "

 

Somebody should slap that guy for calling it SARS COVID 2. He mentions at one point SARS-CoV-2 IS COVID-19 so why not use the term in general use??   

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1 hour ago, Mark K said:

Somebody should slap that guy for calling it SARS COVID 2. He mentions at one point SARS-CoV-2 IS COVID-19 so why not use the term in general use??   

They use language with maddening precision sometimes.    The virologists classify the virus as SARS CoV -2, reflecting its genetic similarity to SARS CoV now 1 or MERS CoV.  Instead of calling the disease Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (named when technology was slower and the virus causing the initial disease wasn’t known) version 2 they chose CoViD 19: or coronavirus disease first occurring in 2019 as being more convenient and logical.    To encourage nations to report new diseases, they don’t follow the Trump protocol of blaming the country of origin, like Spanish (Kansas) Flu did back when viruses were an unknown disease agent stopped by tiny filters.   The virus and disease names are actually convenient and logical for future generations of students.  
https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2015/naming-new-diseases/en/.  Like all the ‘missing’ B vitamins and disease names that don’t reflect the usual behavior of the disease, too many things are named before they are understood.     Future generations of students are left with an ever growing list of random stupid shit to memorize.

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“Now, as infection numbers surge again in much of Europe, the country of 10 million people has some of the lowest numbers of new coronavirus cases — and only 14 virus patients in intensive care.

Whether Sweden’s strategy is succeeding, however, is still very uncertain.

Its health authorities, and in particular chief epidemiologist Dr. Anders Tegnell, keep repeating a familiar warning: It’s too early to tell, and all countries are in a different phase of the pandemic”.

https://apnews.com/a01ddfa2e8ef839b2ee05e2cbcd63169

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1 hour ago, Dog said:

“Now, as infection numbers surge again in much of Europe, the country of 10 million people has some of the lowest numbers of new coronavirus cases — and only 14 virus patients in intensive care.

Whether Sweden’s strategy is succeeding, however, is still very uncertain.

Its health authorities, and in particular chief epidemiologist Dr. Anders Tegnell, keep repeating a familiar warning: It’s too early to tell, and all countries are in a different phase of the pandemic”.

https://apnews.com/a01ddfa2e8ef839b2ee05e2cbcd63169

Because they shut down, late but they shut down. Thanks for proving the point. Now for the US.

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7 hours ago, Lark said:

No.   It does not.  Not really relevant to COVID but incorrect.

This would be good.   Innate immunity, lifestyle changes are more difficult to address in America.    Partial learned immunity would minimize the worst case numbers considerably.   It also makes me optimistic mild cases and light exposure thanks to social distancing and masks inside will translate to less carnage this winter, as immunity naturally builds.    Since uncounted deaths mean our total death loss is already higher then CDC’s 200,000 number by more then 20%, that would be very good for society.    Those with chronic challenges after recovery are scary enough.
 

New Jersey, Peru, Belgium and Spain show Covid is a serious disease, able to kill over one of a thousand people.    Peru actually is a lock down failure.   They started well but couldn’t control indigenous people migrating,    They couldn’t lock down forever.   India shows widespread disease in a large population with good immune systems doesn’t have to look like the Great Plagues.   Though deaths are certainly much higher then official numbers, they aren’t numbering in the tens of millions in a country of a billion people.    If disease fatality rate was .04 and herd immunity was reached at only 60% low end estimates predict 24 million extra deaths.  This doesn’t look as bad as it could be, or the next pandemic may be.   Instead of 15-40 of every thousand dying, uncontrolled areas may ‘only’ lose 1 in 500.   Hopefully Republicans aren’t in charge if a really bad disease hits.  Hopefully whoever is in charge realizes they aren’t an epidemiologist or virologist, and doesn’t think they were born with the judgement of a trained professional.
 

If your immune system doesn't react to intrusive organisms, what does it do?

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7 weeks into hard lockdown. 

We've come from 700+ new cases per day to 11 cases today with a weekly average of 34.4.

Lockdowns work.

With extensive tracing, door knocking, mask wearing, restricted movement and of course TESTING.

The aim is not to eradicate, but to monitor and contain, identify "new hotspots" and prevent mystery cases.

With a bit of luck and vigilance, we'll have our economy working again by November.

"

Metropolitan Melbourne is scheduled to have restrictions eased slightly on September 28, as long as its 14-day average stays below 50.

The next step in Melbourne's reopening "roadmap" is scheduled for October 26, and requires meeting trigger points of recording a statewide 14-day daily new case average below five and fewer than five "mystery" cases over a two-week period.

When asked today whether some steps could be brought forward, Mr Andrews said "common sense" would guide decisions if trigger points were met early.

"We will look at what sits behind the numbers and then we will have to make a judgement," he said.

"It won't be an easy judgement. Has enough time passed for us to be confident that the numbers we are seeing are a true reflection of how much virus is out there?"

 

 

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1 hour ago, Saorsa said:

If your immune system doesn't react to intrusive organisms, what does it do?

Some just hide inside cells, causing minimal damage and stay under the radar.   Sometimes they later cause trouble (Rabies in host bats), sometimes not.   Often the host dies of unrelated causes without ever noticing, battling or defeating the 'invader'.   Studies show ancient retroviruses hidden in our DNA, from harmless diseases our ancient ancestors caught long before HIV.  The virus inserted its genome, turned itself off, and apparently forgot how to reactivate itself.   

Our gut and skin are full of 'normal flora', mostly bacteria, that either aid us or at least hog the prime real estate for themselves.   They sometimes inhibit Salmonella and other 'tough guys', the harmless squatter that keeps the drug dealers out of a vacant house.   Some do real good, aiding digestion or converting vitamins to more useful forms.   Most of the bacteria, yeast and some viruses in and on our bodies are just along for the ride. Many attract just enough attention for our immune system to keep their numbers down (demodex mange mites).    Some successfully hide in or between cells for a lifetime without ever being noticed.   

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18 minutes ago, Lark said:

Some just hide inside cells, causing minimal damage and stay under the radar.   Sometimes they later cause trouble (Rabies in host bats), sometimes not.   Often the host dies of unrelated causes without ever noticing, battling or defeating the 'invader'.   Studies show ancient retroviruses hidden in our DNA, from harmless diseases our ancient ancestors caught long before HIV.  The virus inserted its genome, turned itself off, and apparently forgot how to reactivate itself.   

Our gut and skin are full of 'normal flora', mostly bacteria, that either aid us or at least hog the prime real estate for themselves.   They sometimes inhibit Salmonella and other 'tough guys', the harmless squatter that keeps the drug dealers out of a vacant house.   Some do real good, aiding digestion or converting vitamins to more useful forms.   Most of the bacteria, yeast and some viruses in and on our bodies are just along for the ride. Many attract just enough attention for our immune system to keep their numbers down (demodex mange mites).    Some successfully hide in or between cells for a lifetime without ever being noticed.   

One of my college buddies, who went on to be researcher and then a director in molecular microbiology, liked to say that we are just a tall stack of cells, some of which help us walk and talk and act like human beings (sort of). And it's not even the cells that are in charge, it's the DNA

- DSK

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10 hours ago, Raz'r said:

Because they shut down, late but they shut down. Thanks for proving the point. Now for the US.

If you can call a shutdown where businesses, restaurants and bars remain open a shutdown.

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9 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

7 weeks into hard lockdown. 

We've come from 700+ new cases per day to 11 cases today with a weekly average of 34.4.

Lockdowns work.

With extensive tracing, door knocking, mask wearing, restricted movement and of course TESTING.

The aim is not to eradicate, but to monitor and contain, identify "new hotspots" and prevent mystery cases.

With a bit of luck and vigilance, we'll have our economy working again by November.

"

Metropolitan Melbourne is scheduled to have restrictions eased slightly on September 28, as long as its 14-day average stays below 50.

The next step in Melbourne's reopening "roadmap" is scheduled for October 26, and requires meeting trigger points of recording a statewide 14-day daily new case average below five and fewer than five "mystery" cases over a two-week period.

When asked today whether some steps could be brought forward, Mr Andrews said "common sense" would guide decisions if trigger points were met early.

"We will look at what sits behind the numbers and then we will have to make a judgement," he said.

"It won't be an easy judgement. Has enough time passed for us to be confident that the numbers we are seeing are a true reflection of how much virus is out there?"

 

 

Sweden has gone from 115 deaths per day to virtually none so perhaps not locking down works too.

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38 minutes ago, Dog said:

Sweden has gone from 115 deaths per day to virtually none so perhaps not locking down works too.

Swedens deaths per million are comparable to the USA.

up to10 times higher than other Scandinavian countries

 

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32 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

Swedens deaths per million are comparable to the USA.

up to10 times higher than other Scandinavian countries

 

But not out of line with other European countries and with no lockdown. Japan has 7 deaths per million with no lockdown

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7 minutes ago, Dog said:

But not out of line with other European countries and with no lockdown. Japan has 7 deaths per million with no lockdown

:flog:

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56 minutes ago, Dog said:

But not out of line with other European countries and with no lockdown. Japan has 7 deaths per million with no lockdown

Couple of weeks ago you righties were complaining that it wasn't fair to compare the USA to Asian countries where people meekly obeyed lockdown orders.

Which is it?

- DSK

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-21/why-harsh-covid-19-lockdowns-are-good-for-the-economy/12683486

snippet

A recent study by McKinsey, the New York based global management consultant group, found that it's not lockdowns that have caused a global recession — it's the pandemic.

So simple, so obvious and yet so true.

But it is a finding with serious ramifications for economic management and the way governments chart a course into the future.

"Only when the novel coronavirus is under control will economic growth resume."

The study compares the economic hit between countries that have adopted wildly different strategies.

The results are surprising. It found only a weak link between lockdowns and economic damage.

Sweden, which had a lax approach during the first round of the virus, performed only mildly better than New Zealand's economy, which pursued the toughest strategy of any nation.

Uncertainty, not lockdowns, are the problem

The furore from the business community over Victoria's stringent second lockdown — from the above evidence at least — appears to be misguided.

There is no doubt the measures have delayed the national economic recovery, perhaps by as much as a year.

But it's not so much the lockdown that caused the economic problem.

It was the negligence and poor management that led to the outbreak.

Had the harsh measures not been implemented, Victoria would not have gained control as quickly as it had, and it would only have been a question of time before a state problem became a national disaster.

When the first round of the virus was raging through Europe a few months ago, Germany's central bank noted that uncertainty among consumers and businesses was the major driving factor behind the economic collapse.

Worried about their jobs, consumers stopped spending, which then fed into a rapidly rising jobless rate.

Despite our sterling performance nationally on containing the outbreak, that same uncertainty is coursing through the community.

The latest GDP figures, which a few weeks ago delivered the worst result since The Great Depression, showed a sudden shift in behaviour.

Australians are saving like never before — almost 20 per cent of income is being socked away.

That's not an altogether bad thing for a nation vying for gold in the global household indebtedness stakes.

But all that saving means Australians aren't spending.

And that's bad for business and, ultimately, employment.

Again, it is uncertainty driving a dramatic shift in behaviour.

The McKinsey study found that many Americans are reluctant to engage in normal routines and only 30 per cent feel safer when restrictions are lifted. That wont change until the virus is beaten.

So should we aim for eradication or virus control?

Given the importance of public confidence, the study argues that nations that have pursued more stringent lockdowns and have better contained outbreaks are more likely to be better economic performers over the longer term.

Nations pursuing a balancing act — trying to live with what they deem to be an acceptable level of infection — will struggle to rebuild confidence when compared to those opting for a near zero infection level, similar to our strategy.

That's because they are more likely to experience outbreaks.

"We estimate, for example, that for every three months' delay in getting the virus under control across OECD countries, the recovery in GDP to pre-crisis levels could be delayed by as much as six months," the McKinsey study noted.

 

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

Couple of weeks ago you righties were complaining that it wasn't fair to compare the USA to Asian countries where people meekly obeyed lockdown orders.

Which is it?

- DSK

I don't know what you're talking about and  I'm comparing the US to Asian countries that didn't lockdown.

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11 hours ago, Lark said:

Some just hide inside cells, causing minimal damage and stay under the radar.   Sometimes they later cause trouble (Rabies in host bats), sometimes not.   Often the host dies of unrelated causes without ever noticing, battling or defeating the 'invader'.   Studies show ancient retroviruses hidden in our DNA, from harmless diseases our ancient ancestors caught long before HIV.  The virus inserted its genome, turned itself off, and apparently forgot how to reactivate itself.   

Our gut and skin are full of 'normal flora', mostly bacteria, that either aid us or at least hog the prime real estate for themselves.   They sometimes inhibit Salmonella and other 'tough guys', the harmless squatter that keeps the drug dealers out of a vacant house.   Some do real good, aiding digestion or converting vitamins to more useful forms.   Most of the bacteria, yeast and some viruses in and on our bodies are just along for the ride. Many attract just enough attention for our immune system to keep their numbers down (demodex mange mites).    Some successfully hide in or between cells for a lifetime without ever being noticed.   

OK, by intrusive, I was not including those normally part of our normal  biome which are recognized by our body as a normal and/or non-threatening.

in·tru·sive
/inˈtro͞osiv/
adjective: intrusive
  1. 1.
    causing disruption or annoyance through being unwelcome or uninvited.

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3 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

Swedens deaths per million are comparable to the USA.

up to10 times higher than other Scandinavian countries

 

Are you trying blow up mythology?

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