EYESAILOR

Will there be a third wave?

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Vaccines are will likely to start to arrive in December/January but unlikely to arrive in scale before fall of 2021. What happens between now and then?

 

Just asking. Not offering a view.

 

 

 

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It never left; you are still in the first wave. And it ain’t leaving any time soon.

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This.

The US is still above the April peak. The first wave never receded, it just paused for a bit before going up again. I suspect we'll be in the same position in the springtime except our reference will be the July peak.

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1 hour ago, EYESAILOR said:

Vaccines are will likely to start to arrive in December/January but unlikely to arrive in scale before fall of 2021. What happens between now and then?

 

Just asking. Not offering a view.

Do you enjoy feeding the trolls?  We really don't need another thread of speculative bullshit.

https://covidactnow.org/   Click each state to see counties where the idiots are concentrated.  It has more to do with political persuasion than climate.

covidactnow_2020Sep23a.thumb.png.97280835105b99f43f47de4efcb67615.png

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7 minutes ago, ProaSailor said:

Do you enjoy feeding the trolls?  We really don't need another thread of speculative bullshit.

https://covidactnow.org/   Click each state to see counties where the idiots are concentrated.  It has more to do with political persuasion than climate.

covidactnow_2020Sep23a.thumb.png.97280835105b99f43f47de4efcb67615.png

covidactnow_2020Sep23a7.png.8f39569c46db189f5c73cfafde857a8a.pngcovidactnow_2020Sep23a6.png.1fdce6bc8fa2dfab27cbd0c43b71190e.pngcovidactnow_2020Sep23a9.png.18e08ef55dbb3abf7c679f0994358396.pngcovidactnow_2020Sep23a3.png.dbf76f9cd9c89575b6d21f49e9484cf1.pngcovidactnow_2020Sep23a8.png.f611da24f41e7c72bbe89f31f7fec538.pngcovidactnow_2020Sep23a4.png.302138d2d0d63121c7d20e21289a520c.pngcovidactnow_2020Sep23a5.png.2befe0a1eb261e0dca243bceada64e10.pngcovidactnow_2020Sep23a2.png.2348fb97483a227bd896150e8950545c.png

I agree with others, it is premature to worry about a third wave when the first one is not over in most of the country.

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Just now, Imogi said:

New Jersey and New York haven't had a SECOND wave let alone a THIRD!

Agree.

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7 hours ago, Wess said:

It never left; you are still in the first wave. And it ain’t leaving any time soon.

Just when I thought you had only one brain cell working unilaterally, it appears you might have two, possibly working in concert. Go figure.

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Nearly treat US as 4 seperate countries that have had one wave over different intervals. Big place with different features where it takes time for bug to move around. Need a lot of cases to see a uniform national picture, hopefully never will as that would be very ugly.

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15 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

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Vaccines are will likely to start to arrive in December/January but unlikely to arrive in scale before fall of 2021. What happens between now and then?

 

Just asking. Not offering a view.

 

 

 

I’m not smart enough to interpret the numbers and the second wave 

please explain the minimal  “second wave “death rate 

Something looks fishy 

does testing  give a misleading picture ?

is death rate the only reliable number ?

 

77D66067-BD4D-44DA-9A78-DA7C4B6B9E44.png

7BC56938-1EB2-431A-8D05-5B8987B5C2EA.png

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Nearly treat US as 4 seperate countries that have had one wave over different intervals. Big place with different features where it takes time for bug to move around. Need a lot of cases to see a uniform national picture, hopefully never will as that would be very ugly.

All of this is true but move the bug does. I live in Washington state, where Boeing, Microsoft, and Amazon are based. Google, Facebook, Apple, and others are also here. Even today, there's plenty of business travel between us and California, Oregon, Texas, South Carolina, and other states. Lots of folks have property and relatives in Montana and Wyoming. You really can't count on borders protecting you for more than 24-48 hours. After that, it's another 5 days of incubation and Texas' failure becomes ours as well.  

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58 minutes ago, IStream said:

You really can't count on borders protecting you for more than 24-48 hours. 

Yes in a epidemic they ideally should remove state borders from any guidance because as you say they are scientifically irrelevant and misleading. Unfortunately the differing virus responses between states gives them a significance they shouldn't really have. 

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Apples and oranges, to some degree. Spain is a small country compare to the US. Even within Spain you will find different waves. Looking at the data of the whole of the US does not provides a very clear picture on the specifics relevant for individuals, governments, businesses, or schools. On the other hand, it does show that as a whole, the US is in a pretty shitty condition. Zooming in from that bigger picture to specific states we might need some anthropologists and psychologists to make sense of things. Why did NYC suffer so badly and react so well? This is not just political views, it also seems that certain regions are better at following advice. The left coast is now finally flattening the curve. The cowboy mentality seems alive and well. Even with those "Any functional adult 2020" bumper stickers, people here in the West will have their social gatherings, go to Las Vegas, or camp on a crowded campground with shared bathrooms. 

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4 hours ago, slug zitski said:

I’m not smart enough to interpret the numbers and the second wave 

please explain the minimal  “second wave “death rate 

Something looks fishy 

does testing  give a misleading picture ?

is death rate the only reliable number ?

 

77D66067-BD4D-44DA-9A78-DA7C4B6B9E44.png

7BC56938-1EB2-431A-8D05-5B8987B5C2EA.png

That is -all bias aside- a valid question. Here are some possible explanations.

1. there is a lag in the data: death peak occurs approx. 14 to 25 days after new cases peak. I personally don't rule that out, but I doubt it. To much time has passed now to have this as the only explanation.

2. there is a shift in the age groups that were affected: in northern spring, apparently the cohort of infected older people was larger than it is now. This is apparently supported by data, although I haven't found a source that makes this data comparable across different countries. If you have one, please share, I am very curious about that.

3. it is a new strain. maybe more virulent but less deadly. There is to my knowledge no data to support that.

4. Testing capacity: personally, I think this is a prime suspect. I wouldn't be surprised if the first peak you see from early this year in many European countries is actually just the tail of the first wave. Here is why:

In February, testing was virtually non-existent, in March we were at 7.000 tests per day in Germany, we are now at > 200.000. If -and there is evidence there- the virus spread already as early as November 2019 in Europe, I would hypothesize that many infections occured over Christmas and New Year, with families gathering, and then got a shot of rocket fuel thereafter in the skiing season. Then, infections and subsequently death rates rose exponentially and deaths that had previously been accounted under 'flu' were recognized to form their own pattern. 

Though a grim comparison, that would in my view also be consistent with current numbers from the US, where testing capacity is now -finally- one of the highest. We have had >40.000 new infections per day for an eternity now. We are still 'only' seeing 800 to 900 deaths per day. That is somewhat comparable to the death rates we had in Italy and Spain early this year. This would lead me to the conclusion that the infection rates back then must have been much higher, like on a logarithmic scale higher. Spain, for example, peaked at roughly 10.000 new infections / day and 961 deaths / day. These ratios don't match with what we see in the US today. Testing capacity is the largest variable and therefore I think the prime suspect.

In the end, I believe the 'true' CFR is way lower than we currently see.

Please don't get me wrong. This is a deadly, harmful virus and I have no intention to play that down. I wouldn't wish it on anyone. 

Still, I, too, try to find an explanation for the data we see so that I can get an idea of what we're in for this winter...

Your  (adverse) thoughts are welcome, please be polite and don't call me a c*nt . Otherwise, Malcolm Tucker will draft my revenge. :).

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2 minutes ago, AnotherSailor said:

Why did NYC suffer so badly and react so well? This is not just political views, it also seems that certain regions are better at following advice.

NYC is the primary destination for travel from Europe, which was struggling with C-19:

Coronavirus came to New York from Europe, not China - governor, APRIL 24, 2020
https://www.reuters.com/article/healthcare-coronavirus-usa-new-york/coronavirus-came-to-new-york-from-europe-not-china-governor-idUSKCN2262NJ

Quote

Cuomo cited research from Northeastern University estimating that more than 10,000 New Yorkers may have contracted the disease by the time the state had its first confirmed case on March 1. He said he believed Italy was the likely source.

RACISM, RATHER THAN FACTS, DROVE U.S. CORONAVIRUS TRAVEL BANS, May 16 2020
https://theintercept.com/2020/05/16/racism-coronavirus-china-europe/

Quote

ON MAY 1, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a report that outlined how coronavirus spread in the U.S. via European travel to the New York metropolitan area, despite a popular narrative that China was the main conduit for the disease.

 

If we must be non-political about it, C-19 is more prevalent now in counties where false beliefs have led to non-compliance with safety measures.

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21 minutes ago, Matagi said:

That is -all bias aside- a valid question. Here are some possible explanations.

1. there is a lag in the data: death peak occurs approx. 14 to 25 days after new cases peak. I personally don't rule that out, but I doubt it. To much time has passed now to have this as the only explanation.

2. there is a shift in the age groups that were affected: in northern spring, apparently the cohort of infected older people was larger than it is now. This is apparently supported by data, although I haven't found a source that makes this data comparable across different countries. If you have one, please share, I am very curious about that.

3. Testing capacity: personally, I think this is a prime suspect. I wouldn't be surprised if the first peak you see from early this year in many European countries is actually just the tail of the first wave. Here is why:

In February, testing was virtually non-existent, in March we were at 7.000 tests per day in Germany, we are now at > 200.000. If -and there is evidence there- the virus spread already as early as November 2019 in Europe, I would hypothesize that many infections occured over Christmas and New Year, with families gathering, and then got a shot of rocket fuel thereafter in the skiing season. Then, infections and subsequently death rates rose exponentially and deaths that had previously been accounted under 'flu' were recognized to form their own pattern. 

Though a grim comparison, that would in my view also be consistent with current numbers from the US, where testing capacity is now -finally- one of the highest. We have had >40.000 new infections per day for an eternity now. We are still 'only' seeing 800 to 900 deaths per day. That is somewhat comparable to the death rates we had in Italy and Spain early this year. This would lead me to the conclusion that the infection rates back then must have been much higher, like on a logarithmic scale higher. Spain, for example, peaked at roughly 10.000 new infections / day and 961 deaths / day. These ratios don't match with what we see in the US today. Testing capacity is the largest variable and therefore I think the prime suspect.

In the end, I believe the 'true' CFR is way lower than we currently see.

Please don't get me wrong. This is a deadly, harmful virus and I have no intention to play that down. I wouldn't wish it on anyone. 

Still, I, too, try to find an explanation for the data we see so that I can get an idea of what we're in for this winter...

Your  (adverse) thoughts are welcome, please be polite and don't call me a c*nt . Otherwise, Malcolm Tucker will draft my revenge. :).

Numbers 

I do not  understand them

I’m  in Puerto Rico , super high risk population and a broken health care system 

what’s going on with these numbers ? 

it appears that the UK is a death camp ?

 

3022C3CC-A3C5-480C-892F-9B5C153A7757.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, ProaSailor said:

NYC is the primary destination for travel from Europe, which was struggling with C-19:

Coronavirus came to New York from Europe, not China - governor, APRIL 24, 2020
https://www.reuters.com/article/healthcare-coronavirus-usa-new-york/coronavirus-came-to-new-york-from-europe-not-china-governor-idUSKCN2262NJ

RACISM, RATHER THAN FACTS, DROVE U.S. CORONAVIRUS TRAVEL BANS, May 16 2020
https://theintercept.com/2020/05/16/racism-coronavirus-china-europe/

 

If we must be non-political about it, C-19 is more prevalent now in counties where false beliefs have led to non-compliance with safety measures.

Great points and I am disturbed by the false narratives.

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24 minutes ago, slug zitski said:

Numbers 

I do not  understand them

I’m  in Puerto Rico , super high risk population and a broken health care system 

what’s going on with these numbers ? 

it appears that the UK is a death camp ?

 

3022C3CC-A3C5-480C-892F-9B5C153A7757.jpeg

If the UK increased the number of tests and increased the number of cases the mortality rate would decline......but it could be explained by any number of social reasons as well.  EG, families living together , young and old.  

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The newspapers are telling me that the US did a catastrophic  job addressing the corona issue ? 

It appears that this in not true 

who is correct ? 

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We have 4% of the world's population and 20% of the deaths.

The newspapers are correct.

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zit you are making up shit about the 'rona.  are you trying to get people killed?  

 

 

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

zit you are making up shit about the 'rona.  are you trying to get people killed?  

 

 

Ban me ..asshole 

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

zit you are making up shit about the 'rona.  are you trying to get people killed?  

 

 

Fortunately he is not in charge! Imagine someone making shit up making decisions that gets people killed ... oh wait

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20 hours ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

I agree with others, it is premature to worry about a third wave when the first one is not over in most of the country.

With respect to Connecticut,  the map is misleading at best and a sack of shit at worst. We are having 60-75 new cases and 1 death a day, and it's been that way for a couple months. There has been a slight uptick blamed on schools and colleges which may seem a large percent increase due to the low base.

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When the Flu was first introduced to the NA continent, it decimated the local populations. As it spread it killed even more.

Then the herd immunity took over and the flu also morphed into different strains.

OMG, we are all gonna die................................not all but yes based on history some will some wont and the healthy get to spread their genes.

<extreme sarcasm> Maybe China knew this virus was going to kill off the old, infirmed and unfit. With a population of about 1 billion, that must be pretty expensive to care for so many. Seems like NY Governor Andrew Cuomo knew this when he decided to sacrifice so many elderly that were on the NY public dole. Maybe the world should thank China, now there are many more young liberal voters as so many older conservatives are dead. </extreme sarcasm>

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56 minutes ago, Meat Wad said:

When the Flu was first introduced to the NA continent, it decimated the local populations. As it spread it killed even more.

Then the herd immunity took over and the flu also morphed into different strains.

OMG, we are all gonna die................................not all but yes based on history some will some wont and the healthy get to spread their genes.

 

Be careful: the flu was introduced by the europeans. Sometimes it was spread on purpose because they knew the native population was killed by it. That is genocide, not natural selection.

The reason why the Native Americans were not exposed to the flu before the arrival of the europeans probably has a lot to do with not living with animals the way the europeans did. And while the europeans had a long history of the flu, building immunity over hundreds of years, the native population was exposed all at one. Since we now live in a global society the spread is rapid and the exposure somewhat similar to how we are now being exposed to a new virus. Maybe the latter was your point, but it does seem that some healthy humans get extremely sick or die.

 

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5 hours ago, Matagi said:

That is -all bias aside- a valid question. Here are some possible explanations.

1. there is a lag in the data: death peak occurs approx. 14 to 25 days after new cases peak. I personally don't rule that out, but I doubt it. To much time has passed now to have this as the only explanation.

2. there is a shift in the age groups that were affected: in northern spring, apparently the cohort of infected older people was larger than it is now. This is apparently supported by data, although I haven't found a source that makes this data comparable across different countries. If you have one, please share, I am very curious about that.

3. it is a new strain. maybe more virulent but less deadly. There is to my knowledge no data to support that.

4. Testing capacity: personally, I think this is a prime suspect. I wouldn't be surprised if the first peak you see from early this year in many European countries is actually just the tail of the first wave. Here is why:

 

New "strain"?...there is a new mutation which is apparently more contagious; this mutation is found in most of the new cases in Texas.

Quote

The first study to analyze the structure of the novel coronavirus from two waves of infection in a major city found that a more contagious strain dominates recent samples, researchers from Houston Methodist Hospital said on Wednesday.

They examined more than 5,000 genomes from viruses recovered in the earliest phase of the pandemic in Houston, an ethnically diverse city of 7 million, and from an ongoing more recent wave of infections.

The study, which has not yet been reviewed by outside experts, found that nearly all strains in the second wave had a mutation, known as D614G, which has been shown to increase the number of “spikes” on the crown-shaped virus.

 

The spikes are what allow the virus to bind to and infect cells, increasing the ability of the mutated virus to infect cells.

The Houston researchers said patients infected with the variant strain had significantly higher amounts of the virus on initial diagnosis.

But they found little evidence that mutations in the virus have made it deadlier, noting that severity of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, was more strongly linked to patients’ underlying medical conditions and genetics.

 

They also said some regions of the spike protein - the primary target of coronavirus vaccines now in development - showed several mutations, possibly indicating that the virus is changing in order to evade the body’s immune response.

Previous studies have shown that the coronavirus is mutating and evolving as it adapts to its human hosts.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN26E3KO

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The study suggests that the D614G mutation is more infectious.

You will recall that when the virus first arrived in the US, we relayed findings that although the Virus had a much higher rate of shedding than most virus (1000X the flu), it was very inefficient. Hence masks, if you can reduce the number of molecules ....you dramatically reduce the risk of infection.   If the new mutation is more effective at binding to a new host then we will see a third pick up in the number of cases unless everyone is really disciplined about masks, distancing and hygiene.

Vaccine soon please!

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hoping that this is just a blip in the down trend  and not the beginning of a plateau or a third surge.

104968498_3rdwavw.JPG.6faf7b91ab5b27d8cd8a141d3424e506.JPG

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On 9/23/2020 at 6:36 PM, Wess said:

It never left; you are still in the first wave. And it ain’t leaving any time soon.

It seems the virus has become so normalized in the US, some don't see this.

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5 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

hoping that this is just a blip in the down trend  and not the beginning of a plateau or a third surge.

104968498_3rdwavw.JPG.6faf7b91ab5b27d8cd8a141d3424e506.JPG

Meanwhile, in many places colleges and universities are opening up and kids are back to school, Florida has opened all bars and restaurants, and the weather is starting to force more indoor time.

I abandoned hope in April. I suggest you plan for the worst.

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On 9/24/2020 at 3:55 PM, Ishmael said:

New "strain"?...there is a new mutation which is apparently more contagious; this mutation is found in most of the new cases in Texas.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN26E3KO

For anyone concerned, the existence of the D314G mutation is old news. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6

The article indicates it was first discovered back in  late January in China and Germany.  

Edit: In fact it is now the dominant strain found globally outside of China. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-mutations-sars-cov-strain-easily.html.  And no, I`m not implying anything nefarious was done by the Chinese government as the article indicates it is just how the virus has spread.

In BC, it is usually referred to as the European strain to differentiate it from the original Chinese or Asian strain and it has been the dominant strain in BC almost from the outset back in March.   The third common strain in BC at that time was referred to as the Washington State strain.

About half of our original cases were among the Persian community arriving back from Iran.  IIRC 7 of our first 15 or so cases were within that  relatively small community with the rest within the larger Chinese community but I stopped keeping track after that.

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Prediction... this shit is here for the long term. Don't bother counting the waves.

Think of it as the tide... a mixed semi-diurnal cycle that will become a part of our lives from here on out.

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On 9/23/2020 at 3:22 PM, EYESAILOR said:

2057279184_2ndwave.JPG.d9c0a79df508e0144d64d41adf887933.JPG

 

1813847243_2ndwave2.JPG.2e951667fc11243e049ebec3fb6f99f7.JPG

 

Vaccines are will likely to start to arrive in December/January but unlikely to arrive in scale before fall of 2021. What happens between now and then?

 

Just asking. Not offering a view.

 

 

 

Depends how sloppy and deluded enough of the population is, and whether the powers that be force produce enough respirators for people in the general population who care to at least try to protect themselves from the willfully unmasked.  Given the recent and ongoing stupid behavior of the Trump folks concerning PPE, distancing and tracking, it’ll take a lot of people dying, and that will take time.  Waves don’t really matter- if one likes the wave metaphor, it’ll be like a handful of pebbles tossed into a still pond.  The economy is beginning to adapt to this new reality, and if this desperate fantasy of things going back to they way they were doesn’t get in the way, it’ll be ok.  Time to look forward, not back, and try to help anyone who wants to act rationally, as far as PPE, distancing, and tracking.  A vaccine will have to be very effective, very safe, and easily available to have any effect, but given anti vaxxers...... PPE (respirators!) , distancing, and tracing will be mandatory for years.  

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Whether you call them waves or surges, the pattern reflects , outbreak followed by response to outbreak.

worrying that each low is higher than the last and each peak higher.

 

Hoping for vaccine sooner than later.

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8 hours ago, IPLore said:

Whether you call them waves or surges, the pattern reflects , outbreak followed by response to outbreak.

worrying that each low is higher than the last and each peak higher.

 

Give me convenience or give me death?  Coupled with cyclically truncated panic, then frustration driven attention spans....

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On 10/2/2020 at 8:28 PM, EYESAILOR said:

1267253795_3rdwave2.JPG.e42e3d5aa9dd1d23d56eda769d618797.JPG

With newfound interest in containing covid, new cases ought to be dropping again in the data, just in time for everyone to travel to Grandma's house for Thanksgiving and cross-infect each other again

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One of the easiest ways to see that discussing 'cases' is ridiculous (one could argue deliberately misleading), is to look at the data:

 

"First Wave"

By April 10th we see the peak of cases, before a small respite: The high point is 79,037 new cases a day
Eight days later, April 18, we saw the highest number of average daily deaths, 7,073 daily deaths

 

Fast forward 5 months, and the situation is....

 

"Second Wave"

On September 20  'cases' have increased to over 291,387 a day   (268% more daily cases !!! than April peak)

Yet two weeks after that, and with cases climbing even higher each day...
October 4 average deaths have declined to 4,971 a day  (down ~29.7% from April)

 

TL:DR

By September,  'cases' have surged almost THREE times higher than in April. A quarter million people a day have a 'case' of Covid.
Yet, resulting deaths have dropped almost 30%


Triple one, lower the other by a third.
Huh....


Source:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Screen Shot 2020-10-05 at 2.40.30 PM.png

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still playing the BS game BE ...

Untitled.jpg.d5330c80c5e88db73a9ab7d0f38774cd.jpg

 

866619203_Untitled1.jpg.6f15b67d17bda895e7e108082e141e87.jpg

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1 hour ago, Mid said:

still playing the BS game BE ...

If your high school math teachers are still alive, they're going to hang themselves if they see this.

 :wacko:

 

Firm handshake to the first person to call out his awful error.

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2 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

One of the easiest ways to see that discussing 'cases' is ... [snipped the drivel] ...

Cases matter.

I agree that the death toll compared to early this year has become lower. Science was on the cas(es), medical knowledge and protocols have improved, so less people die from it. That's the good news but not the only thing one should focus on.

  1. Cases matter because infected people still have to self quarantine, disrupting their life, families, schooling, jobs and after all the economy, no matter which country they live in.
  2. Cases matter because some of these people will get sick enough to need medical treatment in hospital. More disruption, more costs, more risk, especially to nurses and doctors having to deal with highly infectious patients day in, day out. And contrary to deaths per captia the hospitalisations per 100k cases are close to what they were months ago.
  3. Cases matter because there is a well documented risk that some survivors will develop long term health issues, taking us back to #1 minus the quarantine.

Each case we can avoid helps those around us, medical staff and the economy. This holds true until a safe and effective vaccine is widely deployed.

Your cherrypicking and juggling with numbers you don't understand helps fuck all. You are a saboteur to a world wide community effort. So, if you can not be helpful, have the decency to shut up and try not to make it worse.

 

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Just to expand on #2, one of the main reasons for case control efforts is to prevent the hospitals from getting flooded. If that happens, watch the fatality rate spike because people will be triaged and last-line therapeutics that aren't available in large quantities won't be an option even for those who aren't triaged. 

Let things get out of control and you're right back at square one.

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20 minutes ago, IStream said:

Just to expand on #2, one of the main reasons for case control efforts is to prevent the hospitals from getting flooded. If that happens, watch the fatality rate spike because people will be triaged and last-line therapeutics that aren't available in large quantities won't be an option even for those who aren't triaged. 

Let things get out of control and you're right back at square one.

Agreed, this is just vital, from affected individuals to societies.

And it's neither new nor some kind of rocket surgery. It is evidence based and was all over the news earlier this year. Maybe even some self proclaimed blatant guy, prouding himself in travelling all over eastern Europe, might have heard of it ... maybe he will process that information and start acting accordingly.

And it's not that hard to do. Just take a little care of yourself and those around you. Simple, really.

 

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7 hours ago, Hadlock said:

With newfound interest in containing covid, new cases ought to be dropping again in the data, just in time for everyone to travel to Grandma's house for Thanksgiving and cross-infect each other again

You missed a step.  You cross infect at Halloween then kill grandma for thanksgiving. 

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@Mid You might want to update your post here sir. Your content is usually good, but, you're a bit wide of the mark.

The graph you posted just shows the cumulative totals. It's not showing a rate of change, or anything. The graphs are at totally different scales, and.. they are sum totals anyway.  By definition, the total number of all cases (or deaths) can never decrease, so, the graph will look like that, (note how the log graph is flattening though, which shows a decreased rate)


The chart you posted, unfortunately, is not relevant to understanding if a strong correlation still exists between daily cases and daily deaths.


BE was (I think?) making the point that that 'daily average number of cases' is skyrocketing.    This is clearly a fact.
Yet, average daily deaths have decreased.   This is clearly a fact.
 

Your charts don't have relation to the argument being made, unfortunately.
Easy mistake to make. I'm sure you weren't trying to mislead anyone.

It seems pretty clear in the data that there is no longer the same correlation between daily cases and daily deaths that was observed in March/April.
Is there still some correlation?  You have to assume so?  But, the data makes it pretty unclear in the last 3 months.

What does all this mean?  Beats me!!
I'm not a doctor like everyone else on this forum ;)


I hope this means the virus is decreasing in potency, medicine/treatment is getting better, or that younger people are getting it, who don't go to a hospital.
 

I also read that NY Times article about the PCR testing sensitivity issues.
Logic does dictate that if we test millions of people a day, and the test is like 95% reliable... yeah we're going to find it all over the place.
The question is, do those cases portend a rise in sickness, or no?
That's where the data here seems to not show the correlation we would all expect anymore.
 

Draw your own conclusions, I'm not smart enough to know for sure what it means either.

 

 

@BlatantEcho What's my prize?


 

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*Ding Ding Ding*  we have a winner!
 

******
Here is another chart.  Admittedly, it's just the state of Minnesota in the US, but it shows the same thing.
Almost an inverse correlation between 'cases' and deaths.

Since March/April, 2020:

Daily 'cases' are +40%(!!)
Daily deaths are -80%

 

Just data folks.  Just real data.

Screen Shot 2020-10-06 at 5.25.57 AM.png

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Bullshit, as usual from BE.

Look at your own fucking diagram and observe the deaths trailing the case spikes by a few weeks!

Other complications like long term damage to the heart, the lungs, the kidneys and indeed the brain are not even (publicly) monitored yet.

Do you take pride in hurting or killing your fellow americans? Do you?!

 

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1 hour ago, BlatantEcho said:

Europe: Look out for the second wave.

You're so right. There is nothing to see here. Absolutely nothing. W.H.A.T.S.O.E.V.E.R. 

And in more good news: only 160 days until spring.

So why the sad face, all you grumpy alarmists? Cheer up!

posrate.jpg

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Ahh, right 'Cases Are Surging' - let's shut down again, gotcha.

Check out this data from the Netherlands:

 'Cases' now are 430%+ higher than April.  (4x more 'cases' every day!)

You would think 430% more deaths right?  I mean, at least 200% more deaths, or 100% more?
"Cases are exploding, just you wait"
 

Meanwhile, daily deaths??  Down 90%...
 

Ned 1.png

Ned 2.png

Ned 3.png

Ned 4.png

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8 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Ahh, right 'Cases Are Surging' - let's shut down again, gotcha.

Check out this data from the Netherlands:

 'Cases' now are 430%+ higher than April.  (4x more 'cases' every day!)

You would think 430% more deaths right?  I mean, at least 200% more deaths, or 100% more?
"Cases are exploding, just you wait"
 

Meanwhile, daily deaths??  Down 90%...

[...]

I am convinced that in March and April, we only saw the back of Godzilla, walking away from us.

That's why I think it's much more important to look at positivity rates than we use to, not the absolute figure.

With 10x tests per day than early this year and positivity rates between 10 and 20 per cent, you can well assume an out of control spread. 

In that case there is no questioning that you are on a path towards very bad numbers. How bad, currently no one knows, it's only October. 159 days to spring. But assuming that all is fine is blatant ignorance.

You sound like someone who sees Godzilla from far and who shouts: 'look how tiny he is. If we all only laugh loud enough at it, it will go away'.

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The Virus is now clearly coming around in surges.   It is the nature of how it is communicated .

The mortality rate will always lag by at least 2-4 weeks.  Mild cases turn to severe cases , we save more than we used to because of better treatment but a certain percentage of hospitalized patients die after a couple of weeks. 

Death rates and cases is not the metric to follow, it is hospitalizations.  You do not want to be hospitalized for CV19.  Even if you recover you will not feel great for a long time, but you will feel relieved. 

Blatant......you can rail against the data as much as you like ...but it doesnt seem to matter whether governments impose local lock downs or curfews or not.....the economic impact is similar, When CV19 cases surges, economic activity slows significantly. Where lock downs are imposed, local service companies and hospitality gets forcibly reduced. Where lock downs are not imposed, the surge has a bit more pace and people voluntarily get scared and reduce their visits to local services and hospitality. 

When a hurricane is coming, the outcome is the same whether the government mandates evacuation or people choose to evacuate, the buildings that are going to be blown down get blown down.

The good news is that many businesses learnt from the first surge and have their online presence dialed up. We are a much more digital economy than we were in March.

The only way the virus is truly eliminated is via a vaccine.  The opportunity for a total lock down eliminating the disease a la China is long since past. Even China can only hold it at bay for a period....they just hope to get to a widespread vaccine in the meantime.

 

 

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1 hour ago, EYESAILOR said:

The Virus is now clearly coming around in surges.   It is the nature of how it is communicated .

Where lock downs are imposed, local service companies and hospitality gets forcibly reduced. Where lock downs are not imposed, the surge has a bit more pace and people voluntarily get scared and reduce their visits to local services and hospitality. 

The good news is that many businesses learnt from the first surge and have their online presence dialed up. We are a much more digital economy than we were in March.

The only way the virus is truly eliminated is via a vaccine.  The opportunity for a total lock down eliminating the disease a la China is long since past. Even China can only hold it at bay for a period....they just hope to get to a widespread vaccine in the meantime.

It is interesting to compare Taiwan and New Zealand both island nations.  Taiwan mandates that everyone wears a mask and they track all mobile phones and they have had no lock downs, they have had seven deaths. 

New Zealand with about a quarter of Taiwan's population has strict control of the borders with 14 days managed isolation for all entrants, lock downs for an out break, after the first out break we had 102 days without any community cases, the second outbreak has been controlled and it is 14 days since we have had a community case. 

We have 0 to 3 cases each day at the border.

2020 10 10 WHO data.jpg

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On 9/24/2020 at 8:06 AM, Wess said:

It never left; you are still in the first wave. And it ain’t leaving any time soon.

The States don’t believe in waves. They prefer a nice steady diet of Covid.
 

The infectious disease guys seem confident that Covid will eventually become a permanent flu like illness. Every year they will have a new modified vaccine to keep up with mutations. It will never disappear. The crazy thing is it could mutate and be less or more harmful. 

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Obviously this virus is not going to leave the planet any time soon. Everything and every effort to curb it seems to be going in complete vain. People can't always stay in the homes they have to go out to get the basics like medical care, groceries, etc. Working from home is not possible for everyone so that's something that can't be locked down. So, the ultimate solution to it is to wait until the vaccine is available and everyone is vaccinated.

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The concern about this pandemic "wave" pattern is that each trough is higher than the prior trough setting up for higher peaks each time, because the Rtx is not being broken.

m790301350_3rdwave3.JPG.23df60e17a9b521d125f7badbee49a11.JPG

This will oscillate to very large numbers unless the pattern of response fatigue is broken with a vaccine. The long term costs to our health system that will result from myocardia and other longer term health issues for survivors is building in an economy that has already had over 8 million cases and 223,000 deaths.

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23 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

The concern about this pandemic "wave" pattern is that each trough is higher than the prior trough setting up for higher peaks each time, because the Rtx is not being broken.

I'm assuming that that graph is for the USA.  If so you have to be careful drawing the conclusion that you have because individual States don't display the same pattern.  The pandemic has followed normal patterns in spreading across the States.

If you look at States like NY, CA, FL, TX - they barely have two peaks let alone 3.  Most only have one peak. The thing is their peaks are at different dates so you get that 3 peak view for the USA.  Do you know of a State that has two significant peaks?  Illinois does but their stats are odd.

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The cause of the very distinct wave pattern in the US is something that I think will engage epidemiologists for a long time ...but it should be studied.

As Kate points out, it is partially explained by the way the infections rolls around the nation on a geographic basis, slowing in one region , only to accelerate somewhere else, but then rolling back into a region that previously had it under control.

One possible explanation and differentiator from Asia is that domestic inter-state travel has never been restricted in the US.

But I think there are other causes as well

  • Protocol fatigue and risk tolerance.  The urge to return to some form of normalcy overcomes risk the longer one survives without getting infected.
  • Seasonal.  The peak of summer in the South coincides with staying indoors for AC. The peak of winter in the mid and north will lead to a surge in Northern states. The shoulder months of Spring (May) and early fall (September) allowed both regions to be outdoors.
  • Easing and tightening and easing of self imposed protocols.

Who knows really????? I dont.  But the pattern is clearly observable.

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Without a doubt this is the most amazing chart of all.

China.JPG.5d27e4baccd65479b1184c9692959379.JPG

The worlds most populous nation, and the origin of the virus, has largely been unscathed since March.

I realize we dont believe the numbers in Wuhan and that it was probably much worse, but we have all kinds of ways of measuring activity in China and everything we see shows the disease has been contained with merely a handful (10-30) cases per day.  It is unclear how those few cases dont lead to a re-surge. The tracking and tracing must be intense.

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7 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

The cause of the very distinct wave pattern in the US is something that I think will engage epidemiologists for a long time ...but it should be studied.

There has been a study of flu pandemics done using global data but with a emphasis on the USA States and the UK.  It is a seminal piece of work titled - The Transmission of Epidemic Influenza by R. Edgar Hope-Simpson.  First published in 1992.  It is available for free on the internet.  250 pages and a good read.  Some of the theories that are explored are out there a little bit BUT...... Some scientists have recently gone back to this piece of work and the data it derives its hypotheses from and compared the Covid-19 transmission curves against those from the earlier flu pandemics.  What it shows it that Covid-19 is displaying very very similar curves in both the USA and the UK to influenza (Note: to alarmists - this is not meant to infer that Covid-19 is "just another flu.").

When you compare the State curves you see again very similar patterns between the 1918 pandemic and Covid-19.  The book is well worth a read as it highlights that there really isn't anything that new under the sun!  What is also intriguing is that the analysis is not done in the heat of the moment and done by written death records and other health data - none of which was recorded in computers in near real time!  (I sometimes think that the availability of data in a ubiquitous format in real time published everywhere has clouded judgement - look how many countries dropped the years and years of research evidence based pandemic planning!).

7 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:
  • Seasonal.  The peak of summer in the South coincides with staying indoors for AC. The peak of winter in the mid and north will lead to a surge in Northern states. The shoulder months of Spring (May) and early fall (September) allowed both regions to be outdoors.

This reason for apparent seasonality doesn't make logical sense.  (The book actually explores this).  The correlation between seasonal factors such as sunlight, temperature, humidity, wind etc and Covid-19 transmission isn't clear.  Plus the "staying indoors" because it is too hot or too cold doesn't make sense either.  Regardless of the season many of us still go to work or school indoors!  Office blocks don't suddenly empty during the summer and schools don't move their students to outdoor classrooms.  There must be something else at play.  The study looks at that and puts up the hypothesis that the cyclical changes in solar radiation are more correlated.

8 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

Who knows really????? I dont.  But the pattern is clearly observable.

Yes and that pattern is very similar if not the same as other respiratory viruses particularly influenza.  One attribute that influenza has that I hope Covid-19 doesn't have is the ability it seems to have to "reactivate" in a population without any obvious source of transmission.  A controversial theory in that regard is that the rush to Vaccine's and genetic manipulation thereof may induce this attribute.  We are approaching the yearly anniversary of the initial Covid-19 infection which they estimate to have been sometime around November of 2019.  Will be interesting to see what happens in China then.

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8 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

The worlds most populous nation, and the origin of the virus, has largely been unscathed since March.

I realize we dont believe the numbers in Wuhan and that it was probably much worse, but we have all kinds of ways of measuring activity in China and everything we see shows the disease has been contained with merely a handful (10-30) cases per day.  It is unclear how those few cases dont lead to a re-surge. The tracking and tracing must be intense.

Interesting conversation. 


I have to believe that China is operating like Taiwan on steroids in terms of controls, tracing and lockdowns. Having been there many times I can give examples of how they can move heaven and earth at scale to make people do what they want. 

On this whole cases to deaths correlation, I am no data scientist but I do recall many US experts saying in the spring that actual positives might be 10x the number of confirmed positives. So perhaps we can assume that with 7 day rolling average deaths peaking at 2100 earlier this year, and limited testing, unconfirmed positives in the northeast & west were much higher than nationwide now.

What matters now is that 7 day rolling average deaths are threatening to creep back up. The last few days have been above the recent average of <700 and yesterday we had 1000 deaths. I would hazard to guess that the transmission dynamic is very different in the middle parts of the country now than in NY in April, and that transmission in these areas should be harder but still we are at half the deaths as we had in the spring and climbing. While Asia has few. And where I live - Maine - has few. Most Mainers comply with masks etc and though we are as rural as the afflicted Midwest we have less deaths. 
 

Bottom line, this is manageable, we are not managing it, and while case count may be a very poor indicator, rolling average deaths  is a good one and it is too high.

 

13C75A12-67E0-48DD-BDFF-C04DE51A61BF.jpeg

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This pandemic must impress on the Dogs of War the effect little viruses can have on everything.

I bet they are redoubling Bio-warfare budgets.

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23 minutes ago, loneshark64 said:

What matters now is that 7 day rolling average deaths are threatening to creep back up. The last few days have been above the recent average of <700 and yesterday we had 1000 deaths. I would hazard to guess that the transmission dynamic is very different in the middle parts of the country now than in NY in April, and that transmission in these areas should be harder but still we are at half the deaths as we had in the spring and climbing. While Asia has few. And where I live - Maine - has few. Most Mainers comply with masks etc and though we are as rural as the afflicted Midwest we have less deaths. 

The graph you display for deaths has the same issue as the one Eyesailor posted for cases.  It is confounded by including all States which are at different stages of their individual pandemics.

NY and NJ were hit very hard in the "first wave" - in my opinion that was reflective of those States population size and density.  Plus their population demographics.  However the death rate for NY has dropped and shows no sign of rising.  The case rate although it has increased is not increasing at the same rate as the first round.

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15 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

The graph you display for deaths has the same issue as the one Eyesailor posted for cases.  It is confounded by including all States which are at different stages of their individual pandemics.

NY and NJ were hit very hard in the "first wave" - in my opinion that was reflective of those States population size and density.  Plus their population demographics.  However the death rate for NY has dropped and shows no sign of rising.  The case rate although it has increased is not increasing at the same rate as the first round.

Perhaps and perhaps not.

But there is a significant difference.

unlike the first wave, Covid19 is now seeded all over the country.

As we have seen in Victoria, one single case can superspread . the USA has 8 million potential spreaders all over the country now.

This may not be so much a wave as a creeping flood.

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2 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

unlike the first wave, Covid19 is now seeded all over the country.

Which the questions regarding its seasonality and ability to inactivate are crucial.  If it is like influenza and is seasonal and can lie dormant then year to year cycles will occur with diminishing impact (dependent on mutation) aided by vaccination and natural herd immunity.

However there is a chance that it is like MERS and SARS and that it is neither truly seasonal or lies dormant and thus will die out.

I hope it is the latter.

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32 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

The graph you display for deaths has the same issue as the one Eyesailor posted for cases.  It is confounded by including all States which are at different stages of their individual pandemics.

NY and NJ were hit very hard in the "first wave" - in my opinion that was reflective of those States population size and density.  Plus their population demographics.  However the death rate for NY has dropped and shows no sign of rising.  The case rate although it has increased is not increasing at the same rate as the first round.

Sure, every graph in the thread has issues because the data is incomplete. We don’t really know what the case rate was in the first round, and it is almost like looking at two different countries/populations April vs now. But I don’t know that looking by state helps much. My kid’s college was doing great and then one kid went away for the weekend out of state, came back and went to a party and they have 99 positive tests in 3 days. 

The top goal we have been managing to (or should have been) all year is the same: “US deaths approaching zero.” If you put every other data point aside (% cases, % population etc) we can absolutely say deaths are down 50% nationally since the uncontrolled peak. And it should have been down - what? - 90%? 

It looks like the US and Europe are ticking up at the same time but they had a better summer at least. Where the lines diverge below at 110 days when we went to the beaches and bars tells the whole story. If we do have a 2nd wave it is off a higher base.

CA9BB1F8-F6F8-4937-8288-BBD0D77325A5.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, loneshark64 said:

Sure, every graph in the thread has issues because the data is incomplete. We don’t really know what the case rate was in the first round, and it is almost like looking at two different countries/populations April vs now. 

But the top goal we have been managing to (or should have been) all year is the same: “US deaths approaching zero.” If you put every other data point aside (% cases, % population etc) we can absolutely say we deaths are down ~50% nationally since the uncontrolled peak. And it should have been down - what? - 90%? 

 It looks like the US and Europe are ticking up at the same time but they had a better summer at least.

CA9BB1F8-F6F8-4937-8288-BBD0D77325A5.jpeg

I haven't been able to fathom what is happening in the UK.  However it appears that the virus has spread to areas that weren't infected in the first wave.  Also the mortality rate is much lower.  Also I suspect the data is being confounded by the influenza season.  Each of the countries in the so called United Kingdom i.e. Wales, Ireland, Scotland and England measure things differently.  If you go the the website that has that data it specifically splits the data out.

The UK has also started ramping up their testing AND testing for antibodies.  I wouldn't be surprised that people are turning up to hospital with Covid-19, are tested for Covid-19 and found to have either antigens or antibodies and are then recorded as Covid-19 cases.  Are they also testing for the presence of flu?  They don't normally test for flu they just assume it is flu and treat the symptoms.

11 minutes ago, loneshark64 said:

But the top goal we have been managing to (or should have been) all year is the same: “US deaths approaching zero.” If you put every other data point aside (% cases, % population etc) we can absolutely say we deaths are down ~50% nationally since the uncontrolled peak. And it should have been down - what? - 90%? 

Approaching zero would be an unattainable goal - with all the history, treatment protocols and vaccines available zero has been unachievable for the yearly influenza.

Your statement "down 50% when it should have been 90%" assumes that Non Pharmaceutical Interventions short of complete quarantine could achieve that reduction.  In my opinion if the virus has seeded then there is only so much you can do to suppress it.  To achieve 90% would require some draconian action that may well have meant the medicine was worse than the cure.  However look at it on a State by State basis over time - NY has a death per 1m of 1,700, NJ 1,800.  The USA average is 678.  Those at the top of the list are the States that got it first.  There are 15 States above the average and the rest are below.  Louisiana and Mississippi are exceptions to that rule.  

Getting back to your supposition 678 is 37% of the NY.  NY and NJ skews all the USA data.  Roughly 25% of all the USA deaths have occurred in those North Eastern States.  If you look at NY you'll find New York City skews it even further.

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50 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

I haven't been able to fathom what is happening in the UK.  However it appears that the virus has spread to areas that weren't infected in the first wave.  Also the mortality rate is much lower.  Also I suspect the data is being confounded by the influenza season.  Each of the countries in the so called United Kingdom i.e. Wales, Ireland, Scotland and England measure things differently.  If you go the the website that has that data it specifically splits the data out.

The UK has also started ramping up their testing AND testing for antibodies.  I wouldn't be surprised that people are turning up to hospital with Covid-19, are tested for Covid-19 and found to have either antigens or antibodies and are then recorded as Covid-19 cases.  Are they also testing for the presence of flu?  They don't normally test for flu they just assume it is flu and treat the symptoms.

Approaching zero would be an unattainable goal - with all the history, treatment protocols and vaccines available zero has been unachievable for the yearly influenza.

Your statement "down 50% when it should have been 90%" assumes that Non Pharmaceutical Interventions short of complete quarantine could achieve that reduction.  In my opinion if the virus has seeded then there is only so much you can do to suppress it.  To achieve 90% would require some draconian action that may well have meant the medicine was worse than the cure.  However look at it on a State by State basis over time - NY has a death per 1m of 1,700, NJ 1,800.  The USA average is 678.  Those at the top of the list are the States that got it first.  There are 15 States above the average and the rest are below.  Louisiana and Mississippi are exceptions to that rule.  

Getting back to your supposition 678 is 37% of the NY.  NY and NJ skews all the USA data.  Roughly 25% of all the USA deaths have occurred in those North Eastern States.  If you look at NY you'll find New York City skews it even further.

I am not sure I understand what point you are trying to make. Just that the data can be teased apart in myriad ways? I don’t agree with your assertion that if the virus has been seeded little can be done. The point of the lockdowns and other non pharmaceutical measures was to lock it down and wait out the contagious period, and hope it is not dormant. That worked initially in many places. We didn’t execute well. The question is what do we do if three months from now it is back to 2K deaths a day? The same thing? Argue about the data? Nothing?

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8 minutes ago, loneshark64 said:

The question is what do we do if three months from now it is back to 2K deaths a day?

I don't believe it will get back to 2k per day because that doesn't seem to be a characteristic of this virus.  If it does then the USA has big problems.  In my opinion those problems are systemic.  Various administrations both State and Federal didn't restock supplies after the 2009 pandemic nor replace obsolete inventory, either didn't have a pandemic management plan or through the nationally agreed playbook out the window or didn't activate it as soon as the book says.  Unfortunately trying to get control of it all now after not following the playbook initially would be very hard.  It would be fair to say that public tolerance for government directives is low and a lot of the public are facing other issues and are somewhat exhuasted from it all.

That said with the advent of better treatment protocols and the availability of therapeutics the death rate shouldn't get back to 2k a day.  The reality is if this current surge in cases was as steep a curve as the first one AND had the same death rate then you would be at that point now.  Google Charles Lindblom's - The Science of Muddling Through.  It describes very well what is happening in the States.  He wrote the article in 1959.

 

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15 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

I don't believe it will get back to 2k per day because that doesn't seem to be a characteristic of this virus.  If it does then the USA has big problems.  In my opinion those problems are systemic.  Various administrations both State and Federal didn't restock supplies after the 2009 pandemic nor replace obsolete inventory, either didn't have a pandemic management plan or through the nationally agreed playbook out the window or didn't activate it as soon as the book says.  Unfortunately trying to get control of it all now after not following the playbook initially would be very hard.  It would be fair to say that public tolerance for government directives is low and a lot of the public are facing other issues and are somewhat exhuasted from it all.

That said with the advent of better treatment protocols and the availability of therapeutics the death rate shouldn't get back to 2k a day.  The reality is if this current surge in cases was as steep a curve as the first one AND had the same death rate then you would be at that point now.  Google Charles Lindblom's - The Science of Muddling Through.  It describes very well what is happening in the States.  He wrote the article in 1959.

 

We’ll see. My fear is we hit a point again where better therapeutics don’t matter. Some of these states are approaching 90% ICU capacity and don’t have the staff to flex up.  That’s when things got really out of control in NY and the death rate ran away for a while.

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28 minutes ago, loneshark64 said:

Some of these states are approaching 90% ICU capacity and don’t have the staff to flex up.  That’s when things got really out of control in NY and the death rate ran away for a while.

Yes it isn't beds or ventilators that is the constraint but staff.  I've been studying that whole area a bit from a public policy and expenditure perspective.

We get backlogs in Hospitals in the best of times and it comes back to ICU and post operative care.  The bottle neck is there.  If we ramped up nursing skills and paid them the same no matter which area they worked in at any one time then those constraints would disappear.

I'd also invest heaps more in preventative medicine.  The USA has an obesity pandemic and associated issues.  If you look at deaths and Covid-19 clinical complications you will see a very strong correlation between obesity and fitness.

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4 hours ago, loneshark64 said:

I

 

Bottom line, this is manageable, we are not managing it, and while case count may be a very poor indicator, rolling average deaths  is a good one and it is too high.

All good but remember that rolling death rate is probably not the best metric for infection.  Our protocols have improved considerably and we are saving more severe cases than we were in March. The best metric is probably hospitalizations. 

The real concern is some of the long term effects from covid19 for those who get infected and survive.  

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1 hour ago, loneshark64 said:

We’ll see. My fear is we hit a point again where better therapeutics don’t matter. Some of these states are approaching 90% ICU capacity and don’t have the staff to flex up.  That’s when things got really out of control in NY and the death rate ran away for a while.

Better therapeutics will get overwhelmed by volume at those levels because Remdesivir, and antibody cocktails are complex to make and will not keep up with demand,

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The wave pattern is interesting 

BUT

Bottom line is that if you draw a line  along highs or a line through peaks or a line at average between the two........that line goes from bottom left to top right.  
 

it’s infectious and older people are in hiding. 

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9 minutes ago, Ishmael said:
19 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

South Dakota is unfortunately well  beyond its third wave:

https://covidactnow.org/us/south_dakota-sd?s=1160280

 

 

 

The Noem Flu is settling in nicely. She managed to do everything wrong.

Hey, Marshall county's not red yet. Try not to be such a Gloomy Gus.

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21 hours ago, ProaSailor said:

South Dakota is unfortunately well  beyond its third wave:

https://covidactnow.org/us/south_dakota-sd?s=1160280

South Dakota is still in its first wave.  If it is like historical curves for that regions viruses you will see the top of the curve turn and start to flatten then drop off.  I'd say it is starting to turn now.  The same is happening in Nebraska.  North Dakota is still on the up.

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image.thumb.png.1065708cbd32d36c5e253acfc5a1ac5c.png

 

On 10/19/2020 at 8:49 AM, Kate short for Bob said:

South Dakota is still in its first wave.  If it is like historical curves for that regions viruses you will see the top of the curve turn and start to flatten then drop off.  I'd say it is starting to turn now.  The same is happening in Nebraska.  North Dakota is still on the up.

 

image.thumb.png.d8105db8bea77619cd5b773b96ef7b26.png

I think your Chrystal ball was made in China 

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On 9/24/2020 at 4:39 PM, SemiSalt said:

With respect to Connecticut,  the map is misleading at best and a sack of shit at worst. We are having 60-75 new cases and 1 death a day, and it's been that way for a couple months. There has been a slight uptick blamed on schools and colleges which may seem a large percent increase due to the low base.

Don't for get the Norwich / New London uptick. Troubling but containable.

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On 9/25/2020 at 6:39 AM, SemiSalt said:

With respect to Connecticut,  the map is misleading at best and a sack of shit at worst. We are having 60-75 new cases and 1 death a day, and it's been that way for a couple months. There has been a slight uptick blamed on schools and colleges which may seem a large percent increase due to the low base.

 

30 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

Don't for get the Norwich / New London uptick. Troubling but containable.

Semisalt is a little out of date

try 679 new cases yesterday and 8 deaths

image.thumb.png.070729eb2946b41563a70ded3ae6898c.png

At those numbers it's containable, with harsh lockdown, masking and social distancing for months.

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