Sean

Electoral College predictions

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Create your own map here - https://electoralvotemap.com/

Post a screen shot. 
Anyone who gets it right gets something off Teaky’s desk!

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TX and OH might be a bit optimistic, I think the rest is realistic. 

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Texas is optimistic until it happens and it could. Biden is crushing Shitstain in Maine. I also think Biden picks off a delegate in Nebraska.

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5 minutes ago, Sean said:


 

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I predict this as well.  It is the pessimistic view imo.

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Indiana is one of the dumbest states in the country.  Ohio flips before IN does in my opinion.

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6 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Indiana is one of the dumbest states in the country.  Ohio flips before IN does in my opinion.

Oops, my mistake. You’re right, no way they flip. Do I get a do-over?

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17 minutes ago, LenP said:

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TX and OH might be a bit optimistic, I think the rest is realistic. 

Agree

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2 hours ago, LenP said:

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TX and OH might be a bit optimistic, I think the rest is realistic. 

396 to 145. I’d love it, but can’t bring myself to that level of optimism. 

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1 hour ago, Sean said:

Oops, my mistake. You’re right, no way they flip. Do I get a do-over?

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That's exactly how I see it and maybe a best case for Trump.  Nice job.  

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8 minutes ago, Sean said:

396 to 145. I’d love it, but can’t bring myself to that level of optimism. 

If you like at Nate's current model, this is more likely than Trump winning. It would require that there are "shy" Biden voters out there, but I do believe there are so I do believe this has a realistic chance of happening. I also missed a couple, I expect Biden to pick up EV in Maine and Nebraska as well. 

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2 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

image.thumb.png.360c3e802c3739d27f81dcde5676ce21.pngimage.thumb.png.46da06f3afa2530476db0e76ac3434bf.png

PA will be blue. Bigly. 

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18 minutes ago, Sean said:

396 to 145. I’d love it, but can’t bring myself to that level of optimism. 

I agree, Though that looks Glorious based on the last 4 years...  I too am tamping down the eternal optimistic that I am...  That said, I would be happy if Biden wins elec college by 100+. Less, trump can make a claim that it was a sham...  Hopefully we get lucky with Tex, FL,  GA..  Maybe NC??  Northern IN went for mayor Pete, but that aint gonna cary the rural areas...  All of the coasts, and the middle turning Purple after this shit-show would be icing on the cake.

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IMHO Trump is likely to win any state that doesn't poll Biden ahead by 8 or more points. I hope I'm wrong.

We'll know when we know.

- DSK

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1 minute ago, shaggy said:

I agree, Though that looks Glorious based on the last 4 years...  I too am tamping down the eternal optimistic that I am...  That said, I would be happy if Biden wins elec college by 100+. Less, trump can make a claim that it was a sham...  Hopefully we get lucky with Tex, FL,  GA..  Maybe NC??  Northern IN went for mayor Pete, but that aint gonna cary the rural areas...  All of the coasts and the middle turning Purple after this shit-show would be icing on the cake.

In four years, less in two at the midterms, I expect that map is going to look a lot different and a lot bluer. One of the things Dog was right about is an emerging exodus from places like NY to less populated states. Many companies are going fully virtual never to return to regular centralized offices, and people are taking that opportunity to move to places with a lower cost of living and where they can buy a house where they have an actual office and aren't working out of their bedroom all day. The real estate market here is going nuts, and from what I can gather it is not just PA (which is already purpleish/blue) but to places like NC and TN among others. That and the emerging tech hubs in the sunbelt and NC/SC will undo all that hard work put into gerrymandering.  

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5 minutes ago, LenP said:

In four years, less in two at the midterms, I expect that map is going to look a lot different and a lot bluer. One of the things Dog was right about is an emerging exodus from places like NY to less populated states. Many companies are going fully virtual never to return to regular centralized offices, and people are taking that opportunity to move to places with a lower cost of living and where they can buy a house where they have an actual office and aren't working out of their bedroom all day. The real estate market here is going nuts, and from what I can gather it is not just PA (which is already purpleish/blue) but to places like NC and TN among others. That and the emerging tech hubs in the sunbelt and NC/SC will undo all that hard work put into gerrymandering.  

I think when/if we get past covid19 there’s going to be a surge of people interested in citys as places to eat/drink/fuck/be merry. It won’t be the people who moved away - headline suggested the biggest group fleeing NYC was, no surprise, young familys - it’ll be the young and maybe some olds. virtual work is here to stay, but swiping right in suburbia don’t work so well long term.

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14 minutes ago, LenP said:

PA will be blue. Bigly. 

I'm not so sure about that. There's a lot of rust, fracking, and coal in PA..... But Joe is from Scranton, so that might help.... But probably not since he moved to DE......

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1769077027_ScreenShot2020-10-20at1_22_36PM.thumb.png.11ca1d350930145606f59961437d5472.png

Trump is facing an uphill battle, particularly as the turnout is Yuge.  

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13 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

I think when/if we get past covid19 there’s going to be a surge of people interested in citys as places to eat/drink/fuck/be merry. It won’t be the people who moved away - headline suggested the biggest group fleeing NYC was, no surprise, young familys - it’ll be the young and maybe some olds. virtual work is here to stay, but swiping right in suburbia don’t work so well long term.

Yeah, no doubt. However I suspect that the population density shifts downwards some in cities and the influx of new NYC expats in places like TN and NC will have a lasting effect in elections. I don't expect cities to go away, just change and frankly change in a good way. There are some really good aspects to cities, however it does present some real challenges when the population density is pushed to the level you see in (2019) NYC. Younger populations who are there for community would be a positive, families of four crammed in a 2 BR apt are less than ideal.

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30 minutes ago, LenP said:

In four years, less in two at the midterms, I expect that map is going to look a lot different and a lot bluer. One of the things Dog was right about is an emerging exodus from places like NY to less populated states. Many companies are going fully virtual never to return to regular centralized offices, and people are taking that opportunity to move to places with a lower cost of living and where they can buy a house where they have an actual office and aren't working out of their bedroom all day. The real estate market here is going nuts, and from what I can gather it is not just PA (which is already purpleish/blue) but to places like NC and TN among others. That and the emerging tech hubs in the sunbelt and NC/SC will undo all that hard work put into gerrymandering.  

I've been watching real estate in Puget Sound. The nice places are going up fast.

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Just now, Raz'r said:

I've been watching real estate in Puget Sound. The nice places are going up fast.

I am not surprised. I have a number in mind that if the market here reaches it, I will be selling. I started looking at CR and Peru months ago when things were looking more squirrelly here in the US, but it would not be a bad option for us regardless of political climate here, as long as we got the right price for our house. It seems that may happen as prices are already half way there, even at the price I have in mind it is dirt cheap compared to a similar house in NY. As long as there is decent Internet, I can run my business from anywhere and overlooking having an office that overlooks the Pacific is compelling not to mention that it would make future retirement more comfortable, particularly since I will be putting two kids through college while (hopefully) retired. I increasingly find myself not wanting to work 60 hour weeks into my seventies.  That and my oldest son is seriously looking at a move there to set up his practice in a few years, so not like we would be leaving anyone behind. 

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20 minutes ago, LenP said:

I am not surprised. I have a number in mind that if the market here reaches it, I will be selling. I started looking at CR and Peru months ago when things were looking more squirrelly here in the US, but it would not be a bad option for us regardless of political climate here, as long as we got the right price for our house. It seems that may happen as prices are already half way there, even at the price I have in mind it is dirt cheap compared to a similar house in NY. As long as there is decent Internet, I can run my business from anywhere and overlooking having an office that overlooks the Pacific is compelling not to mention that it would make future retirement more comfortable, particularly since I will be putting two kids through college while (hopefully) retired. I increasingly find myself not wanting to work 60 hour weeks into my seventies.  That and my oldest son is seriously looking at a move there to set up his practice in a few years, so not like we would be leaving anyone behind. 

We were thinking get the youngest through HS before the move, but even she is saying "those houses look really great!" and might be willing to move during HS. Not sure I would do that to her however, as HS is such a trying time as it is. Things will stabilize in the next 3 years anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

We were thinking get the youngest through HS before the move, but even she is saying "those houses look really great!" and might be willing to move during HS. Not sure I would do that to her however, as HS is such a trying time as it is. Things will stabilize in the next 3 years anyway. 

If you're looking ahead, University of Washington is damn nice and getting in as a resident is going to be easier. There's also Evergreen State. My brother+SIL were giving me the hard sell and WA does look nice. Right now for HS, everything is remote everywhere it seems. It is as if HS exists as a webpage.

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58 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

1769077027_ScreenShot2020-10-20at1_22_36PM.thumb.png.11ca1d350930145606f59961437d5472.png

Trump is facing an uphill battle, particularly as the turnout is Yuge.  

Yeah, my prediction was exactly Cook where Biden takes all of the Toss Ups. Feel pretty good about that. I knew about one of Nebraska's EVs going blue but I didn't realize it was Lean Democrat. I'm always skeptical of Texas actually switching but it could happen. Dems could take the Texas House as well in a wave election. I think they will take the AZ House (currently 29-31) with Kelly and Biden at the top of the ticket vs McSally and Shitstain.

Big turnout means wave.

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1 minute ago, Olsonist said:

Big turnout means wave.

The country needs a wave, a mandate, a referendum for change.  I think part of Biden's attraction is that he will only be a one term president.  Gives both sides a chance to take a deep breath and pony up their best in 2024.  To the Trump supporters, we put up with your asshole for four years, now put up with ours.  

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49 minutes ago, LenP said:

I am not surprised. I have a number in mind that if the market here reaches it, I will be selling. I started looking at CR and Peru months ago 

Y'all forget that we USAeans are global pariahs - all sorts of countries have their borders closed to us. 

Thanks Drumph !!

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8 minutes ago, AJ Oliver said:

Y'all forget that we USAeans are global pariahs - all sorts of countries have their borders closed to us. 

Thanks Drumph !!

You know it's bad when Yemen closes their borders to us.  

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13 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

The country needs a wave, a mandate, a referendum for change.  I think part of Biden's attraction is that he will only be a one term president.  Gives both sides a chance to take a deep breath and pony up their best in 2024.  To the Trump supporters, we put up with your asshole for four years, now put up with ours.  

Yeah, but Biden is anything but an asshole but this is one Dem who ain't gonna hug things out. Still I think Biden at 77 will be one term. So the Nikki Haleys and the Ted Cruzs have to be salivating about that although I think the Shitstain hangover will last quite a bit longer. Jeff's Bitch Burning accomplished a lot of damage to the country but didn't change conservatives like himself one bit.

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3 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

Yeah, but Biden is anything but an asshole but this is one Dem who ain't gonna hug things out. Still I think Biden at 77 will be one term. So the Nikki Haleys and the Ted Cruzs have to be salivating about that although I think the Shitstain hangover will last quite a bit longer. Jeff's Bitch Burning accomplished a lot of damage to the country but didn't change conservatives like himself one bit.

Ted Cruz I don't think would beat Beto in TX if he was running this year.  He is a non-player.  Will the R base accept a female candidate...I don't think so.  I enjoy your perspective!

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4 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Indiana is one of the dumbest states in the country.  Ohio flips before IN does in my opinion.

Is there something in corn fields that makes people stupid?

Seems like the dumbest states all grow a lot of corn.

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How delusional can you possible get...

Texas going blue is a joke. Biden might win but he won't win Texas... 

Florida is basically the must win state for Trump and I think he will narrowly win it. If Trump loses Florida I'm going to bed, it's over.

Popular vote goes to Biden, easily... 

image.png.75cbba8633224cd261715336e0fd3cbe.png

 

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5 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:

How delusional can you possible get...

Texas going blue is a joke. Biden might win but he won't win Texas... 

Florida is basically the must win state for Trump and I think he will narrowly win it. If Trump loses Florida I'm going to bed, it's over.

Popular vote goes to Biden, easily... 

image.png.75cbba8633224cd261715336e0fd3cbe.png

 

How much you want to bet MI is blue?  Bet me you stupid son of a bitch (apologies to your mother, it's a figure of speech).  What made you so stupid and hateful?

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53 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Ted Cruz I don't think would beat Beto in TX if he was running this year.  He is a non-player.  Will the R base accept a female candidate...I don't think so.  I enjoy your perspective!

I don't believe anything about Texas until it happens. I'll grant you that 2020 is a different landscape than 2018 but I'm skeptical and think that that was a high water mark for Beto or if you prefer, for Texans. As for Cruz, he came in 2nd in the Republican primary. I also think that's a high water mark but Republicans have to run someone. It won't be Kasich.

Ballast, your boy Shitstain is down 11 points in Maine and 7.3 in Michigan. He's down in PA, GA and FLA. If Republicans had any brains--there are no Republicans on this board with any brains--they'd cave entirely and reject the candidate. Dying on this hill for that man will leave a shitty stain for the duration and then they'll still lose.

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I'm cautiously optimistic.  I'm not that sure how many votes they'll be competing for Thursday.  Maybe 5% at best.  Trump has lost.  

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This one is based primarily on the level of long term stupid in a district

 

Screen Shot 2020-10-20 at 4.03.49 PM.png

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2 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

 

This one is based primarily on the level of long term stupid in a district

 

Screen Shot 2020-10-20 at 4.03.49 PM.png

MI will not report early due to the hamstrings, but if the East Coast goes as above, game over.  

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3 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

MI will not report early due to the hamstrings, but if the East Coast goes as above, game over.  

Is anyone in the frigging northern seaboard voting for trump??  I would assume that all the deaths they carried throughout will hinder any trump inroads....  

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And if LenP is to be believed, add Penn to Biden's total.

 

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Utah is not going for Biden. He's down more than 10 there. That had to be a typo.

Maine has two Democratic Critters. Maine 2 is R+3 but Shitstain is down 11 points in the state.  

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8 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

Utah is not going for Biden. He's down more than 10 there. That had to be a typo.

Maine has two Democratic Critters. Maine 2 is R+3 but Shitstain is down 11 points in the state.  

Two weeks and I bet you had a candidate that pretended to run.  The guy's a dipshit, get it together for 2024.  I think all of us would like to see better candidates from both parties.  

Edit: Not directed at Olsonist, to Trump voters in general you stupid fucking assholes.  

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20 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

Utah is not going for Biden. He's down more than 10 there. That had to be a typo.

Maine has two Democratic Critters. Maine 2 is R+3 but Shitstain is down 11 points in the state.  

I have a hunch that the polling in several smaller states relies on a very outdated model, and the polling itself is not robust.  If any of the religious whacks are going to take a moral stand, it's Moronia.  And if the black community in SLC can get the vote out like they are doing in places like GA, I can see it.

 

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In your favor, Utah 4 went blue and that's nominally an R+13 district. Mia Love lost but by only 694 votes. (Not running again, either.) I just don't seeU Utah going blue as a state regardless of how much Shitstain offends Mormon sensibilities. Also, I think if GA and FLA go blue so are OH and PA. I think PA is the most likely to go blue in that bunch.

Interesting thing is that it was closer in 2016 than it would appear. There was a third protest candidate, a CIA Mormon. Shitstain won a plurality but Hillary and CIA dude had more votes.

And still I don't think Utah will go blue.

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20 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

In your favor, Utah 4 went blue and that's nominally an R+13 district. Mia Love lost but by only 694 votes. (Not running again, either.) I just don't seeU Utah going blue as a state regardless of how much Shitstain offends Mormon sensibilities. Also, I think if GA and FLA go blue so are OH and PA. I think PA is the most likely to go blue in that bunch.

Interesting thing is that it was closer in 2016 than it would appear. There was a third protest candidate, a CIA Mormon. Shitstain won a plurality but Hillary and CIA dude had more votes.

And still I don't think Utah will go blue.

I read an article today that adjusted Biden'ts poll advantage and adjusted it for the errors in Clinton's bid, Biden still kicks DJT's ass.  I can only hope.  

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2 hours ago, Olsonist said:

Jeff's Bitch Burning accomplished a lot of damage to the country but didn't change conservatives like himself one bit.

Nor has the bitch shown any signs of being burnt.

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1 hour ago, Cal20sailor said:

How much you want to bet MI is blue?  Bet me you stupid son of a bitch (apologies to your mother, it's a figure of speech).  What made you so stupid and hateful?

Unhinged a bit... 

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13 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:

Unhinged a bit... 

Dumb a bit?  I thought dumbshit rednecks were endangered in SD.  Please tell me you're not procreating?

 

Your national vote doesn't matter, does that suck?  

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For reference, below are The Guardians’s rolling 14 day poll averages of key battleground states -

 

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4C5DA7DC-806F-429E-A35C-072BE7965317.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Sean said:

For reference, below are The Guardians’s rolling 14 day poll averages of key battleground states -

 

97D16BB4-82C0-4C6C-9F30-0C3FE96257FD.jpeg

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6D61430B-54DE-41F6-9338-F496DBAA397E.jpeg

B39DE20B-351E-4D00-9CEC-D08B57E337DD.jpeg

6AA280DC-DBA0-4336-8176-DD76E3A7C129.jpeg

CE6A56A1-F1A4-4CC0-ADB0-828091EAD19D.jpeg

4C5DA7DC-806F-429E-A35C-072BE7965317.jpeg

2993B3D6-1141-4DE0-8A44-3113095D8204.jpeg

The Guardian? That's objective... What's the sampling distribution? what's the MoE? Without this data it's just numbers...  

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58 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:

The Guardian? That's objective... What's the sampling distribution? what's the MoE? Without this data it's just numbers...  

What do you know about statistics?  I guarantee I know more.  What numbers do you want and I'll dig and get them.  

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1 hour ago, Movable Ballast said:

The blue line holds for Biden in your analysis... 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bfVKzx-3jkXRkjysTxH1k-h9ZIThV_7x/view

These guys were the only real polling group that had it correct in 2016... 

In 2016, Hillary's polls were sliding downward in most states. This bunch has Trump's polls sliding over the last couple months.

FWIW I think Trump has a high chance to win many states that are polled as "leaning blue."

It's surprising how they predict the Senate races splitting, for example the Dem taking NC's Senate seat and Trump winning the votes for President.

- DSK

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3 hours ago, Movable Ballast said:

How delusional can you possible get...

Texas going blue is a joke. Biden might win but he won't win Texas... 

Florida is basically the must win state for Trump and I think he will narrowly win it. If Trump loses Florida I'm going to bed, it's over.

Popular vote goes to Biden, easily... 

image.png.75cbba8633224cd261715336e0fd3cbe.png

 

I don't think there is even a 5% chance that Trump carries MI and PA. 

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11 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

In 2016, Hillary's polls were sliding downward in most states. This bunch has Trump's polls sliding over the last couple months.

FWIW I think Trump has a high chance to win many states that are polled as "leaning blue."

It's surprising how they predict the Senate races splitting, for example the Dem taking NC's Senate seat and Trump winning the votes for President.

- DSK

As they are now... The gap top Biden is narrowing on a daily basis... 

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1 hour ago, Cal20sailor said:

Dumb a bit?  I thought dumbshit rednecks were endangered in SD.  Please tell me you're not procreating?

 

Your national vote doesn't matter, does that suck?  

Not even close. SD has a lot of expat rednecks that resettle there after leaving the military. 

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2 minutes ago, LenP said:

I don't think there is even a 5% chance that Trump carries MI and PA. 

Based on what information? 

Poles that show confidence intervals have the MoE well within the range of error. 

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1 minute ago, Movable Ballast said:

Based on what information? 

Poles that show confidence intervals have the MoE well within the range of error. 

Let’s see your map. 

 

8 hours ago, Sean said:

 

Create your own map here - https://electoralvotemap.com/

 

 

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Just now, Movable Ballast said:

Based on what information? 

Poles that show confidence intervals have the MoE well within the range of error. 

Based on what I know personally of the state, what it votes on, what motivates voters here, what turns them off, and experience actually running digital ops for campaigns. You can listen to whatever you want form the RW media sources, when the votes are cast Trump gets his ass kicked here. I am not going to dig through the threads here, but I called PA for Trump in 2016. This year he will lose bigly.

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57 minutes ago, Sean said:

Fine, I’ll give you Michigan. Where does that get you?

I posted my prediction. I think Trump squeaks it out with 276... Or maybe that's my hope. With as many states where the difference is well within the MoE it's anyone's guess... 

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2 minutes ago, LenP said:

Based on what I know personally of the state, what it votes on, what motivates voters here, what turns them off, and experience actually running digital ops for campaigns. You can listen to whatever you want form the RW media sources, when the votes are cast Trump gets his ass kicked here. I am not going to dig through the threads here, but I called PA for Trump in 2016. This year he will lose bigly.

It's voting on fracking this time around... 

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8 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:

As they are now... The gap top Biden is narrowing on a daily basis... 

?? Not in the Trafalgar polls. I looked back to August and they apparently don't poll every swing state, but what I saw showed Trump dropping in numbers in every state except Louisiana

1 minute ago, Movable Ballast said:

It's voting on fracking this time around... 

Yes indeed, all the coal miners who got their jobs back will DEFINITELY be voting Trump!!

- DSK

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Just now, Movable Ballast said:

It's voting on fracking this time around... 

Sure dude, whatever lets you sleep at night. The number of people here who will vote for Trump based on that issue can be counted on one hand. 

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1 minute ago, LenP said:

Sure dude, whatever lets you sleep at night. The number of people here who will vote for Trump based on that issue can be counted on one hand. 

I'm not going to lose sleep either way. You clearly have an inside line and Trump is down across the board but within the margin of error so if you think Trump will get trounced, you must know something that nobody else in the entire country who does this for a living knows...  

I don't think you do... 

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5 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

?? Not in the Trafalgar polls. I looked back to August and they apparently don't poll every swing state, but what I saw showed Trump dropping in numbers in every state except Louisiana

Yes indeed, all the coal miners who got their jobs back will DEFINITELY be voting Trump!!

- DSK

This is happening today, as elections go August is a million years ago... 

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/

 

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3 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:
9 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

?? Not in the Trafalgar polls. I looked back to August and they apparently don't poll every swing state, but what I saw showed Trump dropping in numbers in every state except Louisiana

Yes indeed, all the coal miners who got their jobs back will DEFINITELY be voting Trump!!

- DSK

This is happening today, as elections go August is a million years ago...  

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/

Focus, dude. You touted the Trafalgar polls, that's what I was citing. "back to August" includes Sept, perhaps I should have spelled that out.

I didn't see anything state by state in this IBD-Tipp poll. And 97% vs 4% of Republicans support Trump? Is that every member of The Lincoln Project? Another question, how many people have dropped out of the Republican Party because of Trump? Is he going to gain enough KKKers and Nazis to make up the numbers?

I dunno, I think it's likely he'll win either thru outright stupidity/gullibility or trickery. And I think the USA is headed for

image.png.94706f17a588d8fa10e92166e79715f8.png

because the Republican leaders are looting and pillaging instead of governing

- DSK

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55 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:

I'm not going to lose sleep either way. You clearly have an inside line and Trump is down across the board but within the margin of error so if you think Trump will get trounced, you must know something that nobody else in the entire country who does this for a living knows...  

I don't think you do... 

It would be a miracle if Trump gets as many raw votes as last time. Not gonna happen. Biden will out-poll Hillary by substantial numbers.

 

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3 hours ago, Movable Ballast said:

I posted my prediction. I think Trump squeaks it out with 276... Or maybe that's my hope. With as many states where the difference is well within the MoE it's anyone's guess... 

But it is not very realistic to think you can win all of the MoEs. Each guy might win some so there would be Trump surprises and Biden surprises.

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4 hours ago, Movable Ballast said:

I posted my prediction. I think Trump squeaks it out with 276... Or maybe that's my hope. With as many states where the difference is well within the MoE it's anyone's guess... 

 

Why the hell would anyone hope for that, unless they were on the Kremlin's payroll.  Fuckin' troll.

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51 minutes ago, Left Shift said:
4 hours ago, Movable Ballast said:

I posted my prediction. I think Trump squeaks it out with 276... Or maybe that's my hope. With as many states where the difference is well within the MoE it's anyone's guess... 

 

Why the hell would anyone hope for that, unless they were on the Kremlin's payroll.  Fuckin' troll.

Believe it or not, almost half the country not only hopes Trump wins, but they believe he will or America will be lost.  Feel lucky you don't live in in an area where the majority of the people believe that.  

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6 hours ago, Movable Ballast said:

As they are now... The gap top Biden is narrowing on a daily basis... 

Hard to believe that the old white marxist bottom feeders could possibly lose to Trump again! Wow, just wow. Once again proving that you can't fix dead nuts stupid. :D   

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7 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

What do you know about statistics?  I guarantee I know more.  What numbers do you want and I'll dig and get them.  

 

Trump Supporters.jpeg

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Quote

almost half the country not only hopes Trump wins

You really don't believe that do you?   Only 55% of eligible voters turned out in 2016 and Hillary won the popular by 3 million votes.    You may want to shift that to like 20-25%.   Apathy is what got Trump elected and an outdated Electoral College system.

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16 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

How much you want to bet MI is blue?  Bet me you stupid son of a bitch (apologies to your mother, it's a figure of speech).  What made you so stupid and hateful?

If he won't, there are those who will...

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Biden - 538

Trump - 0

Oh wait, that is what it should be in any sensible country with an electorate having functioning brains. Shirley, every voter in the US knows that Trump is the worst president in history?

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23 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

Biden - 538

Trump - 0

Oh wait, that is what it should be in any sensible country with an electorate having functioning brains. Shirley, every voter in the US knows that Trump is the worst president in history?

If there was a God...

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12 hours ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

But it is not very realistic to think you can win all of the MoEs. Each guy might win some so there would be Trump surprises and Biden surprises.

Totally agree. I don't think my map has him winning every state with data within the MoE. 

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40 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:

Totally agree. I don't think my map has him winning every state with data within the MoE. 

Couple stretches in your map; Maine, Colorado, Michigan, and I’m surprised to see Iowa blue

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1 minute ago, Sean said:

Couple stretches in your map; Maine, Colorado, Michigan, and I’m surprised to see Iowa blue

Yeah but not near the stretches' other have posted with Texas going blue...  

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I'm thinking Biden will come in at 325 or so. Could go as high as 370. Trump's path to 270 is vanishingly small, but not impossible.

Moreover, I think Biden will beat Trump by 7.5 million votes in the popular vote.

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17 hours ago, Movable Ballast said:

Based on what information? 

Poles that show confidence intervals have the MoE well within the range of error. 

The fucking Pollacks!  Look up 'poles' dipshit.  Trump supporter by education.  

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1 hour ago, Cal20sailor said:

The fucking Pollacks!  Look up 'poles' dipshit.  Trump supporter by education.  

I normally have you on ignore... I keep giving you an opportunity for post something relevant. You keep disappointing me... 

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28 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:

I normally have you on ignore... I keep giving you an opportunity for post something relevant. You keep disappointing me... 

The word dumb does you an injustice

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2 hours ago, Sean said:

Couple stretches in your map; Maine, Colorado, Michigan, and I’m surprised to see Iowa blue

CO Will Be Blue...  

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2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

CO Will Be Blue...  

Michigan's blue from every indication, but I still won't count on it till I see the vote.

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47 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:

I normally have you on ignore... I keep giving you an opportunity for post something relevant. You keep disappointing me... 

Fucking moron, it wasn't you, but it's polls.  Get that GED.  

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I have Biden at 306. Not giving him Fla, Ohio, Iowa, Ga.  Would not be too surprised  (Would be disappointed as I thought the cheeseheads had learned their lesson with Trump, Walker and Foxconn)if he did not take WI.

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