Sean

Electoral College predictions

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1 minute ago, hasher said:

But just in case, stand by.  This is how the world is won.  One hand clapping.

Yup.

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4 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

Yup.

Eat shit and bark at the moon.

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1 hour ago, Raz'r said:

I can't see Texas going Blue yet. But Demographics WILL catch up, just like in California. The Rs had a last gasp here as well. 

It is remarkable that Texas is even in play.

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7 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

It is remarkable that Texas is even in play.

I think it gets down to practical governance. The government has to fix the pot holes and take the trash to the dump. Republicans are fuckin' crazy and can't run anything, which is a big part of why they're trying to sell the idea that gov't is all crooks and incompetents and can't be trusted. But at some point, people look around and say "A lot of shit is going wrong, and these guys are in La-La Land talking about pizza parlor basements instead of trying to fix it."

Our county is pretty deep red, but it also has a strong progressive element, and a somewhat old fashioned conservative attitude about getting shit done. Our neighboring county is batshit crazy Trump country, and they all want to come to our schools and drive on our roads, and say "that other county must be stealing from us!"

- DSK

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2 hours ago, Raz'r said:

I can't see Texas going Blue yet. But Demographics WILL catch up, just like in California. The Rs had a last gasp here as well. 

Arnie was their last gasp (!) except that after all 8 of the 2005 ballot propositions went down, he fired his chief of staff, hired a lesbian Democrat and governed as a centrist. His redistricting was eventually rehabilitated and it passed. That non-partisan redistricting cost the Republicans several seats. Eventually the voters tired of the budget crisis every year and gave Democrats supermajorities. Republicans rarely even make the top two finishers in the open primaries. A dead, nutty party.

Dunno about Texas. My dad was from El Paso but I know nothing of the state. It'll flip when it flips.

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FWIW Larry Sabato at the Univ. of Virginia (aka Doc Politics) using two different models, has Biden with 345-350 EVs. He says that is consistent with Nate Silver’s more complex modeling.

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56 minutes ago, jerseyguy said:

FWIW Larry Sabato at the Univ. of Virginia (aka Doc Politics) using two different models, has Biden with 345-350 EVs. He says that is consistent with Nate Silver’s more complex modeling.

I think that is Biden's floor and would not be surprised if it is 400 +- in the end. I suspect that the polls are once again within the margin of error, but this time biased towards trump. So add 2-4% for Biden in each of the swing states. The polling has not caught up with all the new young voters who traditionally don't turn out in large numbers and are underestimating African American turnout, plus I suspect there are more than a few lifelong Rs in the 65+ demo who are not willing to admit they are going to vote for a Dem for the first time. 

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On 10/21/2020 at 9:06 PM, Olsonist said:

Arnie was their last gasp (!) except that after all 8 of the 2005 ballot propositions went down, he fired his chief of staff, hired a lesbian Democrat and governed as a centrist. His redistricting was eventually rehabilitated and it passed. That non-partisan redistricting cost the Republicans several seats. Eventually the voters tired of the budget crisis every year and gave Democrats supermajorities. Republicans rarely even make the top two finishers in the open primaries. A dead, nutty party.

Dunno about Texas. My dad was from El Paso but I know nothing of the state. It'll flip when it flips.

El Paso won’t be voting for Trump.  This maybe the year that blowout voting from the big cities overwhelms the red counties.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/27/covid-coronavirus-el-paso-texas-surge

 

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24 minutes ago, LenP said:
1 hour ago, jerseyguy said:

FWIW Larry Sabato at the Univ. of Virginia (aka Doc Politics) using two different models, has Biden with 345-350 EVs. He says that is consistent with Nate Silver’s more complex modeling.

I think that is Biden's floor and would not be surprised if it is 400 +- in the end. I suspect that the polls are once again within the margin of error, but this time biased towards trump. So add 2-4% for Biden in each of the swing states. The polling has not caught up with all the new young voters who traditionally don't turn out in large numbers and are underestimating African American turnout, plus I suspect there are more than a few lifelong Rs in the 65+ demo who are not willing to admit they are going to vote for a Dem for the first time. 

I really hope you're right, the Republican leadership is acting like they think the voting will actually matter.

But we all know there will be a high degree of fuckery, much more than ever before. And a heck of a lot of people LOVE Trump, for whatever stupid and/or hateful reason. IMHO the odds are much too high that he can either win or steal it.

- DSK

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If it's a blue tsunami, it's 400+ with a lot of Senate + legislature flips. AZ is a case in point. Republicans have a weak Senate candidate there and a bare majority in the legislature, 17-13 in the Senate and 31-29 in the House. Democrats already have a 5-4 Critter majority.

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The 2020 United States state legislative elections will be held on November 3, 2020 for 86 state legislative chambers in 44 states. Across the fifty states, approximately 65 percent of all upper house seats and 85 percent of all lower house seats are up for election.Wikipedia
 
Date: Tuesday, November 3, 2020

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6 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

If it's a blue tsunami, it's 400+ with a lot of Senate + legislature flips. AZ is a case in point. Republicans have a weak Senate candidate there and a bare majority in the legislature, 17-13 in the Senate and 31-29 in the House. Democrats already have a 5-4 Critter majority.

The more statehouses the better. It's Census (as biased as that will be) year.

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Montana is now moving towards Biden. Not a ton of polling in the state, but of the polling there is it shows the state headed towards Biden.

I also wonder if Trump's comment telling folks to try and change their vote if they already voted is a bit of a tell. With the unprecedented level of early voting, it is going to be harder and harder to come from behind. We are already likely nearing the halfway point of votes that were cast in 2016 which means there is half as many people to sway. Trump has a bigger deficit to overcome and he has to overcome it with roughly half the available voters in 2016. Plus the polls are still moving away from him. Every day that passes, Trump's chances get quite a bit dimmer  not just because he has lost a day but because potential votes are lost once they vote early and every day more people are voting and can no longer be converted to a Trump vote. The vast majority of those early votes went to Biden, which means he does not suffer the same type of problem. He can still expand his map and he can do so much easier than Trump can eat away at Biden's lead. Trump is now feeling, probably for the first time in his life, what it is like to be facing a systemic disadvantage. To win, he now has to be 2-4x as effective as Biden just to hold even let alone close the gap. I think someone told him and he understood enough to start asking folks to change their votes. 

The other factor that came into play in 2016 is that many voters thought a Clinton victory was a foregone conclusion. Many people who did not like her, but would have preferred her over Trump stayed home. It gave them a way to not vote for someone they dislike. Biden's negatives are far smaller than Clinton's, so he does not have that same problem. Also and more importantly, most folks are not feeling it is a safe race for Biden at this point, even though it almost certainly is. That means turnout will be much higher for Biden. Biden's most ardent supporters think he might lose, Trump's most ardent supporters think he can't lose. That dynamic affects turnout in favor of Biden. The Biden campaign has run a very disciplined race, and now has the opportunity to expand the map as a result. He suffers none of Clinton's perceived arrogance and that has allowed him to play the underdog all the while he has been ahead, and that is where he is most comfortable. 

Six days to go, so we will know for certain in a short amount of time, but this is looking more and more like a blowout win for Biden. Which leads me to wonder what Biden will do with his blue tsunami. My strong suspicion is that he will make the most of it using the tools the Rs have established as the new normal in DC. Expand the court, eliminate the filibuster, and push everything important through in two years before the mid terms.

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8 hours ago, LenP said:

Montana is now moving towards Biden. Not a ton of polling in the state, but of the polling there is it shows the state headed towards Biden.

I also wonder if Trump's comment telling folks to try and change their vote if they already voted is a bit of a tell. With the unprecedented level of early voting, it is going to be harder and harder to come from behind. We are already likely nearing the halfway point of votes that were cast in 2016 which means there is half as many people to sway. Trump has a bigger deficit to overcome and he has to overcome it with roughly half the available voters in 2016. Plus the polls are still moving away from him. Every day that passes, Trump's chances get quite a bit dimmer  not just because he has lost a day but because potential votes are lost once they vote early and every day more people are voting and can no longer be converted to a Trump vote. The vast majority of those early votes went to Biden, which means he does not suffer the same type of problem. He can still expand his map and he can do so much easier than Trump can eat away at Biden's lead. Trump is now feeling, probably for the first time in his life, what it is like to be facing a systemic disadvantage. To win, he now has to be 2-4x as effective as Biden just to hold even let alone close the gap. I think someone told him and he understood enough to start asking folks to change their votes. 

The other factor that came into play in 2016 is that many voters thought a Clinton victory was a foregone conclusion. Many people who did not like her, but would have preferred her over Trump stayed home. It gave them a way to not vote for someone they dislike. Biden's negatives are far smaller than Clinton's, so he does not have that same problem. Also and more importantly, most folks are not feeling it is a safe race for Biden at this point, even though it almost certainly is. That means turnout will be much higher for Biden. Biden's most ardent supporters think he might lose, Trump's most ardent supporters think he can't lose. That dynamic affects turnout in favor of Biden. The Biden campaign has run a very disciplined race, and now has the opportunity to expand the map as a result. He suffers none of Clinton's perceived arrogance and that has allowed him to play the underdog all the while he has been ahead, and that is where he is most comfortable. 

Six days to go, so we will know for certain in a short amount of time, but this is looking more and more like a blowout win for Biden. Which leads me to wonder what Biden will do with his blue tsunami. My strong suspicion is that he will make the most of it using the tools the Rs have established as the new normal in DC. Expand the court, eliminate the filibuster, and push everything important through in two years before the mid terms.

Don't forget dropping Devin Nunes into the Marianas Trench from a great height.

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23 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

Don't forget dropping Devin Nunes into the Marianas Trench from a great height.

Chief Inspector Nunes will never be shamed in such a way.  (He'd have to have shame for that to happen.)

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Count up college votes on offer and get out these 3 charts and overlay.

Recent rise in cases last two weeks and status of hospitalisation capacity today with 13 states full. 

Note only swing state showing a Trump lead Ohio just got hospitals swamped.

 

ElV9H_MWkAAhvHu.jpeg

ElS6ii-X0AI5Apu.jpeg

Elc7wGzVkAAxQOv.jpeg

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I would not be surprised to see Trump win 538-0, with The Faithful keeping a perfectly straight face. 

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On 10/28/2020 at 2:23 AM, LenP said:

Montana is now moving towards Biden. Not a ton of polling in the state, but of the polling there is it shows the state headed towards Biden.

I also wonder if Trump's comment telling folks to try and change their vote if they already voted is a bit of a tell. With the unprecedented level of early voting, it is going to be harder and harder to come from behind. We are already likely nearing the halfway point of votes that were cast in 2016 which means there is half as many people to sway. Trump has a bigger deficit to overcome and he has to overcome it with roughly half the available voters in 2016. Plus the polls are still moving away from him. Every day that passes, Trump's chances get quite a bit dimmer  not just because he has lost a day but because potential votes are lost once they vote early and every day more people are voting and can no longer be converted to a Trump vote. The vast majority of those early votes went to Biden, which means he does not suffer the same type of problem. He can still expand his map and he can do so much easier than Trump can eat away at Biden's lead. Trump is now feeling, probably for the first time in his life, what it is like to be facing a systemic disadvantage. To win, he now has to be 2-4x as effective as Biden just to hold even let alone close the gap. I think someone told him and he understood enough to start asking folks to change their votes. 

The other factor that came into play in 2016 is that many voters thought a Clinton victory was a foregone conclusion. Many people who did not like her, but would have preferred her over Trump stayed home. It gave them a way to not vote for someone they dislike. Biden's negatives are far smaller than Clinton's, so he does not have that same problem. Also and more importantly, most folks are not feeling it is a safe race for Biden at this point, even though it almost certainly is. That means turnout will be much higher for Biden. Biden's most ardent supporters think he might lose, Trump's most ardent supporters think he can't lose. That dynamic affects turnout in favor of Biden. The Biden campaign has run a very disciplined race, and now has the opportunity to expand the map as a result. He suffers none of Clinton's perceived arrogance and that has allowed him to play the underdog all the while he has been ahead, and that is where he is most comfortable. 

Six days to go, so we will know for certain in a short amount of time, but this is looking more and more like a blowout win for Biden. Which leads me to wonder what Biden will do with his blue tsunami. My strong suspicion is that he will make the most of it using the tools the Rs have established as the new normal in DC. Expand the court, eliminate the filibuster, and push everything important through in two years before the mid terms.

What's scary is the "likely voter" assumptions in those polls. Been a long time since people were as worked up as they are and it's fair to assume a lot of unlikely voters will vote this time around. GIGO. 

 Nobody should feel confident looking at the polls, not this time around. 

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On 10/28/2020 at 5:45 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Count up college votes on offer and get out these 3 charts and overlay.

Recent rise in cases last two weeks and status of hospitalisation capacity today with 13 states full. 

Note only swing state showing a Trump lead Ohio just got hospitals swamped.

 

ElV9H_MWkAAhvHu.jpeg

ElS6ii-X0AI5Apu.jpeg

Elc7wGzVkAAxQOv.jpeg

Are those states colored Maroon for a reason?  Just about a one for one match with tRump Country.

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Fucking funni as.

The people get to vote, then those who run the place say what it's going to be.

Same as it ever was.

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On 10/28/2020 at 7:23 PM, LenP said:

The other factor that came into play in 2016 is that many voters thought a Clinton victory was a foregone conclusion. Many people who did not like her, but would have preferred her over Trump stayed home. It gave them a way to not vote for someone they dislike. Biden's negatives are far smaller than Clinton's, so he does not have that same problem. Also and more importantly, most folks are not feeling it is a safe race for Biden at this point, even though it almost certainly is. That means turnout will be much higher for Biden.

Record turnout coming....don't be lulled thinking they favour blue AND coming from the right places. 

Best statistic ....no candidate has EVER won where their approval rating has NEVER been above 50%.

ElWAM8cW0AE5Oe9.jpeg

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Texas just took the off ramp. 

Just surpassed its 2016 total votes cast w/ one day of early voting & Election Day left to go. 

The state is reporting 9,009,850 votes already cast, vs. the all-time record of 8,969,226 in 2016. 

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11 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Record turnout coming....don't be lulled thinking they favour blue AND coming from the right places. 

Best statistic ....no candidate has EVER won where their approval rating has NEVER been above 50%.

ElWAM8cW0AE5Oe9.jpeg

Just to be clear, I was saying turnout for Biden will be higher than it was for Clinton. That does not mean turnout will not be high for Trump as well. Still, high turnout tends to favor dems and the polls make sense to me now whereas they did not in 2016. I continue to believe this is a blowout win for Biden. 

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1 hour ago, LenP said:

I continue to believe this is a blowout win for Biden. 

That Texas pre poll could easily favour one or the other. Even if blue still short that swing there = smashed country wide

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

That Texas pre poll could easily favour one or the other. Even if blue still short that swing there = smashed country wide

Could be the last Red Texas vote. Like California, demographics will eventually rule.

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2 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Could be the last Red Texas vote. Like California, demographics will eventually rule.

Tech sets up roots, and the politics tend to follow. 

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3 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Like California, demographics will eventually rule.

Doesn't really help if the over 65 demographic you own .....you then go out of your way to kill them off. Florida a watch. 

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25 minutes ago, LenP said:

Tech sets up roots, and the politics tend to follow. 

Can't tell if it's tech, or just the browning of the populace, although those are related. However, Orange County Asians historically voted R, but are now changing as well.

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1 hour ago, Raz'r said:

Can't tell if it's tech, or just the browning of the populace, although those are related. However, Orange County Asians historically voted R, but are now changing as well.

Trump dragged the party away from a lot of folks. I have a friend from when I was growing up who found and connected to me on FB. Turns out he has become an extreme evangelical. I was really surprised when I saw him start posting all sorts of pro Biden stuff. Trump may still win the lion's share of evangelicals, but even with them the cracks are forming. 

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1 hour ago, Raz'r said:

or just the browning of the populace,

Interestingly Harris on her way to Texas now with polls showing an underperforming Latino vote. Doing that at 11th hour unthinkable so indicates they think its 38 college votes are now seriously in play even with large pre-poll.

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2 hours ago, Raz'r said:

Could be the last Red Texas vote. Like California, demographics will eventually rule.

Yeah, moderate Republican Texans should have put Beto O'Rourke in the Senate positioning him for the Presidency. Instead they're stuck with a Paleolithic Ted Cruz fighting a rear guard action. But I guess that is the nature of conservatism.

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On 10/27/2020 at 7:33 PM, Olsonist said:

If it's a blue tsunami, it's 400+ with a lot of Senate + legislature flips.

As much as I hate to admit, this what needs to happen. The GOP needs to blown into dust, and the Democrats need to be given a chance to fuck up as badly as Republicans. Maybe then we have one or more viable alternative parties. That would force them to compromise.

Sadly, I am not sanguine about such a thing ever happening.

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1 hour ago, Remodel said:

As much as I hate to admit, this what needs to happen. The GOP needs to blown into dust, and the Democrats need to be given a chance to fuck up as badly as Republicans. Maybe then we have one or more viable alternative parties. That would force them to compromise.

Sadly, I am not sanguine about such a thing ever happening.

Two problems with that. First, Democrats are NOT Republican doppelgängers. Nancy Pelosi is NOT the left wing opposite of Newt Gingrich. That is just ludicris Bothsiderism.

Second, while I want the Democrats to win, I do not think it will change anything for the Republicans. Jeff's Burn This Bitch To The Ground nonsense forgets that after his Bitch Is Burned Down, he will have exactly the same elk that he had before. As I've said before, there is an element of human nature involved and human nature doesn't change with elections. It barely changes with evolution. Alternative parties also do not change human nature. They is what they is.

Seriously, do you think these guys have learned anything in four years? Elk, they go on cruises but they don't learn shit.

image.png.6fc9edca25b8f7cc007cae3e6498a863.png

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On 10/29/2020 at 10:45 AM, jack_sparrow said:

Count up college votes on offer and get out these 3 charts and overlay.

Recent rise in cases last two weeks and status of hospitalisation capacity today with 13 states full. 

Note only swing state showing a Trump lead Ohio just got hospitals swamped.

 

ElV9H_MWkAAhvHu.jpeg

ElS6ii-X0AI5Apu.jpeg

Elc7wGzVkAAxQOv.jpeg

And how it looks now.

Month of October, only Georgia and Hawaii saw decreases in hospitalization. California held steady. There were increases in hospitalizations in every other state and DC.

ElsMM3IVoAAQn-X.jpeg

Elx9nzXX0AAeUKV.jpeg

Elx7gqWX0AIHnYq.jpeg

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On 10/31/2020 at 1:18 AM, Olsonist said:

Two problems with that. First, Democrats are NOT Republican doppelgängers. Nancy Pelosi is NOT the left wing opposite of Newt Gingrich. That is just ludicris Bothsiderism.

Second, while I want the Democrats to win, I do not think it will change anything for the Republicans. Jeff's Burn This Bitch To The Ground nonsense forgets that after his Bitch Is Burned Down, he will have exactly the same elk that he had before. As I've said before, there is an element of human nature involved and human nature doesn't change with elections. It barely changes with evolution. Alternative parties also do not change human nature. They is what they is.

Seriously, do you think these guys have learned anything in four years? Elk, they go on cruises but they don't learn shit.

image.png.6fc9edca25b8f7cc007cae3e6498a863.png

Fat shaming again, Olson?

I for one am looking forward to the end of a long four years of your never ending meltdown. 

I'm embarrassed for you, dude. 

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13 minutes ago, Venom said:

Fat shaming again, Olson?

I for one am looking forward to the end of a long four years of your never ending meltdown. 

I'm embarrassed for you, dude. 

Looks like the one on the left might be your mom but not on her best day, well, someone's mom anyway.

if anything it's ugly shaming, inside and out by the looks of it

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On 10/31/2020 at 3:01 AM, jack_sparrow said:

Interestingly Harris on her way to Texas now with polls showing an underperforming Latino vote. Doing that at 11th hour unthinkable so indicates they think its 38 college votes are now seriously in play even with large pre-poll.

The efforts to encourage registration and the large number of pre polls in Texas is going to make some very nervous.

 

 

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On 10/30/2020 at 1:16 PM, Olsonist said:

Yeah, moderate Republican Texans should have put Beto O'Rourke in the Senate positioning him for the Presidency. Instead they're stuck with a Paleolithic Ted Cruz fighting a rear guard action. But I guess that is the nature of conservatism.

Republicans =/= conservative. 

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POLITICS 
11/02/2020 07:14 pm ET

Trump’s Closing Message: I Will Cheat

The president finished with a pledge to not count lawful votes, attacks on the country’s coronavirus expert and praise for a treasonous Confederate general.

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38 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Republicans =/= conservative. 

Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. I’m beginning to agree with you on this. Basically, Republicans (and Fakebertarians, Hi Tom!) lie about what they are. The elk, they are many things, but conservative is not one of them.

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53 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Republicans =/= conservative. 

Sadly, it would appear the democrats have become the party of the conservatives.

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I'm a liberal/progressive but at least Democrats are sane.

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Just now, Olsonist said:

I'm a liberal/progressive but at least Democrats are sane.

Only in comparison.

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I’ll settle for not believing that the other party are pedophile cannibals. Sanity. 
 

I thought “I’m not a witch” was the exception. 

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7 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

Only in comparison.

No, Dems are good on governance. I’m just left of them on policy. I’m left of Pelosi, Obama, Biden and Clinton on policy but I don’t have nightmares if they’re running the show. Bill and Barack were good at governance. You want something left of them (I do) you gotta get some Critters elected. AOC gets this.

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Larry Sabato  (Doc. politics at UVA) in his last pre-election prediction has Biden with 321 EVs.  He has the Senate 52-48 Dems and the Dems picking up 10 House seats.

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3 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

No, Dems are good on governance. I’m just left on policy. I’m left of Pelosi, Obama, Biden and Clinton on policy but I don’t have nightmares if they’re running the show. Bill and Barack were good at governance. You want something left of them (I do) you gotta get some Critters elected. AOC gets this.

No argument from me. I live in socialisticism hell and like it.

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6 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

No argument from me. I live in socialisticism hell and like it.

So do the elk, although they want their socialism colored red. I just want our socialism to improve our infrastructure and our lives rather than bomb the crap out of the Middle East (Hi Jeff!).

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28 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

So do the elk, although they want their socialism colored red. I just want our socialism to improve our infrastructure and our lives rather than bomb the crap out of the Middle East (Hi Jeff!).

Actually, they want their socialism "colored" pure white.  No taking advantage by those "others".

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42 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

No, Dems are good on governance. I’m just left of them on policy. 

I'll wager that I am left of you on policy . . 

but that is OK - we lefties have a big tent. 

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19 minutes ago, AJ Oliver said:

I'll wager that I am left of you on policy . . 

but that is OK - we lefties have a big tent. 

Yeah, but I'm way better looking.

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1 minute ago, Olsonist said:

Yeah, but I'm way better looking.

Well, maybe, but can you stalk a giant plastic duck ? 

 

Resized_20180714_171510_6984 (1).jpeg

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4 hours ago, Olsonist said:

I'm a liberal/progressive but at least Democrats are sane.

sane; relative term.

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The upbeat "Make America Great Again has gone...it now just Fear and Loathing aplenty. 

El4h0sMX0AMo-yq.png

 

VERSUS

Change - optimism and asperation

 

God knows what level his tweets will be like if he is getting hammered in the count. 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

The upbeat "Make America Great Again has gone...it now just Fear and Loathing aplenty. 

El4h0sMX0AMo-yq.png

 

VERSUS

Change - optimism and asperation

 

God knows what level his tweets will be like if he is getting hammered in the count. 

Will anyone be listening...

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2 hours ago, FinnFish said:

Will anyone be listening...

We better....he will still be president for a couple of months!

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