Chris in Santa Cruz, CA

lockdown sooner or later depending on GOP sociopathy

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Still don't have time right now to work on numbers...

But,  35 covid deaths today in el paso tx.

Tx deaths at 175, but a number of important counties did not report today. 

That would be the equivalent of 350 deaths in dfw, or about 880 deaths in ny.

But as you say mikey,  the ifr is plummeting (actually down 20 to 30 per cent.... winning). 

Ifr has taken a turn for the worse in el paso. 

 

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Small wonder.  A look at how different our numbers are:

Year Total Deaths - Mike Total Deaths – Francois Difference
2020 --   --
2019 -- 2,852,607 --
2018 2,839,205 2,839,076 -129
2017 2,813,503 2,810,935 -2,568
2016 2,744,248 2,731,848 -12,400
2015 2,712,630 2,698,943 -13,687
2014 2,626,418 2,646,843 20,425

 

 

  Total Deaths for 45 weeks - Mike Total Deaths for 45 weeks - Francois Difference
2020 2,735,840 2,758,728 -22,888
2019 2,453,228 2,453,228 0
2018 2,457,004 2,448,588 8,416
2017 2,434,762 2,413,669 21,093
2016 2,374,830 2,344,477 30,353
2015 2,347,468 2,332,898 14,570
2014 2,272,862 2,215,121 57,741

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16 minutes ago, frenchie said:

Small wonder.  A look at how different our numbers are:

Year Total Deaths - Mike Total Deaths – Francois Difference
2020 --   --
2019 -- 2,852,607 --
2018 2,839,205 2,839,076 -129
2017 2,813,503 2,810,935 -2,568
2016 2,744,248 2,731,848 -12,400
2015 2,712,630 2,698,943 -13,687
2014 2,626,418 2,646,843 20,425

 

 

  Total Deaths for 45 weeks - Mike Total Deaths for 45 weeks - Francois Difference
2020 2,735,840 2,758,728 -22,888
2019 2,453,228 2,453,228 0
2018 2,457,004 2,448,588 8,416
2017 2,434,762 2,413,669 21,093
2016 2,374,830 2,344,477 30,353
2015 2,347,468 2,332,898 14,570
2014 2,272,862 2,215,121 57,741

Bezos just added another 80 billion to his fortune, now he wants to buy CNN. 

The lockdowns are working. :D 

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Holy shit.  Did I ever get lost in the irrelevant weeds.  I should have just checked your fucking math...

The first four columns are copied from your post, pasted into a spreadsheet.

"ratio check" is your "total deaths for 45 weeks", divided by your "population".

"Difference" is how much you're off by.  

Year Population Total Deaths for 45 weeks Ratio ratio check difference
2020 330584439 2735840 0.83% 0.83% 0.00%
2019 328239523 2453228 0.75% 0.75% 0.00%
2018 326073525 2457004 0.87% 0.75% -0.12%
2017 323907526 2434762 0.87% 0.75% -0.12%
2016 321741528 2374830 0.85% 0.74% -0.11%
2015 319575530 2347468 0.85% 0.73% -0.12%
2014 317409531 2272862 0.83% 0.72% -0.11%
2013 315243533 2247398 0.82% 0.71% -0.11%
2012 313077535 2200915 0.81% 0.70% -0.11%
2011 310911536 2176839 0.81% 0.70% -0.11%
2010 308745538 2136146 0.80% 0.69% -0.11%
2009 306013175 2109083 0.80% 0.69% -0.11%
2008 303280812 2139217 0.82% 0.71% -0.11%
2007 300548448 2097443 0.81% 0.70% -0.11%
2006 297816085 2099652 0.81% 0.71% -0.10%
2005 295083722 2118476 0.83% 0.72% -0.11%
2004 292351359 2074859 0.82% 0.71% -0.11%
2003 289618996 2118711 0.85% 0.73% -0.12%
2002 286886632 2114470 0.85% 0.74% -0.11%
2001 284154269 2091137 0.85% 0.74% -0.11%
2000 281421906 2079823 0.85% 0.74% -0.11%

 

 

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Not sure why you bothered to generate that "total deaths for 45 weeks" column, if you're not gonna bother to use it for anything.

 

Year Population Total Deaths Total Deaths for 45 weeks Ratio Divide using "total deaths", instead of "total death for 45 weeks" difference
2020 330584439 -- 2735840 0.83%               --  
2019 328239523 -- 2453228 0.75%               --  
2018 326073525 2839205 2457004 0.87% 0.87% 0.00%
2017 323907526 2813503 2434762 0.87% 0.87% 0.00%
2016 321741528 2744248 2374830 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%
2015 319575530 2712630 2347468 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%
2014 317409531 2626418 2272862 0.83% 0.83% 0.00%
2013 315243533 2596993 2247398 0.82% 0.82% 0.00%
2012 313077535 2543279 2200915 0.81% 0.81% 0.00%
2011 310911536 2515458 2176839 0.81% 0.81% 0.00%
2010 308745538 2468435 2136146 0.80% 0.80% 0.00%
2009 306013175 2437163 2109083 0.80% 0.80% 0.00%
2008 303280812 2471984 2139217 0.82% 0.82% 0.00%
2007 300548448 2423712 2097443 0.81% 0.81% 0.00%
2006 297816085 2426264 2099652 0.81% 0.81% 0.00%
2005 295083722 2448017 2118476 0.83% 0.83% 0.00%
2004 292351359 2397615 2074859 0.82% 0.82% 0.00%
2003 289618996 2448288 2118711 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%
2002 286886632 2443387 2114470 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%
2001 284154269 2416425 2091137 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%
2000 281421906 2403351 2079823 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%

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Frenchie, other than the obvious spike this year (your numbers, not the ones Mikey pulled off a defective spreadsheet) there is an upward trend in the death rate every year. I suppose that's the artifact of the declining life expectancy in the US?

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1 hour ago, Raz'r said:

Frenchie, other than the obvious spike this year (your numbers, not the ones Mikey pulled off a defective spreadsheet) there is an upward trend in the death rate every year. I suppose that's the artifact of the declining life expectancy in the US?

It's the other way around: the average mortality rate is up, which brings down life expectancy. 

It's not old folks dying sooner.  It's young & middle-aged folks (25-64), dying more.

Suicides, drug overdoses, diseases related to addiction & obesity  -  "deaths of despair"  -  have been climbing.

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Just now, frenchie said:

It's the other way around: the average mortality rate is up, which brings down life expectancy. 

It's not old folks dying sooner.  It's young & middle-aged folks (25-64), dying more.

Suicides, drug overdoses, diseases related to addiction & obesity  -  "deaths of despair"  -  have been climbing.

That’s what I was thinking. A true sign of the fall of America.

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11 hours ago, frenchie said:

Okay, I have time tonight. 

The co-op's closed today...  I'm not as tired as I thought I'd be... we're not doing anything for TurkeyDay this year... and while I was planning to take care of my Obamacare enrollment for next year, the NYS healthsite's having technical difficulties.  So.

First, though... before I get started... what were you talking abouot, when you said:

?

The only change I see is the one we (should) have learned to expect, where the sudden droop down for recent weeks move forward:

KbXxpwO.png

Any difference in between the reports, for weeks before... about week 30... are so small you can hardly see any difference between the lines.

 

It's not just the 2020 data that changes, but as we have more weeks in 2020, we get a better measure of 2000 - 2018 data, because the 44/52 ratio then becomes 45/52, and eventually 52/52. 

But again, I could have made another mistake. I threw away all my old calculations, and I spot checked the census data that I had.

It's the problem with using incomplete data sets, but to be fair, you opened this can of worms a few weeks ago. I was fine with just waiting until early 2022.

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12 hours ago, frenchie said:

 

Our population numbers are pretty different.

I'm using the Census population estimates, from here::

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html

for each year, I averaged the monthly estimates, to arrive at an annual number. 

Compared to yours... well, we're using different numbers:

  average number mike’s number difference
2020 329459499 330584439 -1124940
2019 327842998 328239523 -396525
2018 326260373 326073525 186848
2017 324480012 323907526 572486
2016 322368465 321741528 626937
2015 320063719 319575530 488189
2014 317730420 317409531 320889
2013 315464179 315243533 220646
2012 313283352 313077535 205817
2011 311009155 310911536 97619
2010 308758105 308745538 12567

:

       

 

I noticed that the U.S. Census uses July 1 as the midpoint.

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10 hours ago, Raz'r said:

Frenchie, other than the obvious spike this year (your numbers, not the ones Mikey pulled off a defective spreadsheet) there is an upward trend in the death rate every year. I suppose that's the artifact of the declining life expectancy in the US?

That's what we discussed last week. There is a general decline in health in the this country that existed before COVID came and will be here after COVID is gone.

A COVID vaccine isn't going to change that. We need better healthcare for all use regular shmoes who can't afford luxury sailing yachts. We need cleaner air, less sugar jammed into all of our foods, better work-life balance, the whole thing that most Americans didn't give a shit about before COVID came around.

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7 hours ago, frenchie said:

It's the other way around: the average mortality rate is up, which brings down life expectancy. 

It's not old folks dying sooner.  It's young & middle-aged folks (25-64), dying more.

Suicides, drug overdoses, diseases related to addiction & obesity  -  "deaths of despair"  -  have been climbing.

We also don't have healthcare. So we medicate ourselves with cheap palliatives, like vape ... which then clogs our lungs and kills us.

Wealthy people and corporate employees have taxpayer subsidized healthcare, because the corporations get the tax subsidy against their taxable revenue for their group healthcare plans. That essentially passes a chunk of those healthcare costs to the U.S. taxpayers.

Many poor people and most elderly get taxpayer subsidized healthcare, through Medicare, Medicaid, State programs.

But that small ocean of Americans who work for themselves or who have "gig" economy jobs -- i.e. not the kind of people who can afford luxury sailing yachts -- they just wander through life hoping not to get sick.

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10 hours ago, frenchie said:

Not sure why you bothered to generate that "total deaths for 45 weeks" column, if you're not gonna bother to use it for anything.

 

Year Population Total Deaths Total Deaths for 45 weeks Ratio Divide using "total deaths", instead of "total death for 45 weeks" difference
2020 330584439 -- 2735840 0.83%               --  
2019 328239523 -- 2453228 0.75%               --  
2018 326073525 2839205 2457004 0.87% 0.87% 0.00%
2017 323907526 2813503 2434762 0.87% 0.87% 0.00%
2016 321741528 2744248 2374830 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%
2015 319575530 2712630 2347468 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%
2014 317409531 2626418 2272862 0.83% 0.83% 0.00%
2013 315243533 2596993 2247398 0.82% 0.82% 0.00%
2012 313077535 2543279 2200915 0.81% 0.81% 0.00%
2011 310911536 2515458 2176839 0.81% 0.81% 0.00%
2010 308745538 2468435 2136146 0.80% 0.80% 0.00%
2009 306013175 2437163 2109083 0.80% 0.80% 0.00%
2008 303280812 2471984 2139217 0.82% 0.82% 0.00%
2007 300548448 2423712 2097443 0.81% 0.81% 0.00%
2006 297816085 2426264 2099652 0.81% 0.81% 0.00%
2005 295083722 2448017 2118476 0.83% 0.83% 0.00%
2004 292351359 2397615 2074859 0.82% 0.82% 0.00%
2003 289618996 2448288 2118711 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%
2002 286886632 2443387 2114470 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%
2001 284154269 2416425 2091137 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%
2000 281421906 2403351 2079823 0.85% 0.85% 0.00%

 

Good catch. Okay, so this is the final data, as Week 45 ... the average ratio is 0.73% and we're at 0.83% this year. Let's see how much of that was from NYC back in April & May ... We might as well take a test case of Texas, since DFW asked about that ...

Year Population Total Deaths Total Deaths for 45 weeks Ratio
2020 330,584,439 2,735,840 2,735,840 0.83%
2019 328,239,523 2,453,228 2,453,228 0.75%
2018 326,073,525 2,839,205 2,457,004 0.75%
2017 323,907,526 2,813,503 2,434,762 0.75%
2016 321,741,528 2,744,248 2,374,830 0.74%
2015 319,575,530 2,712,630 2,347,468 0.73%
2014 317,409,531 2,626,418 2,272,862 0.72%
2013 315,243,533 2,596,993 2,247,398 0.71%
2012 313,077,535 2,543,279 2,200,915 0.70%
2011 310,911,536 2,515,458 2,176,839 0.70%
2010 308,745,538 2,468,435 2,136,146 0.69%
2009 306,013,175 2,437,163 2,109,083 0.69%
2008 303,280,812 2,471,984 2,139,217 0.71%
2007 300,548,448 2,423,712 2,097,443 0.70%
2006 297,816,085 2,426,264 2,099,652 0.71%
2005 295,083,722 2,448,017 2,118,476 0.72%
2004 292,351,359 2,397,615 2,074,859 0.71%
2003 289,618,996 2,448,288 2,118,711 0.73%
2002 286,886,632 2,443,387 2,114,470 0.74%
2001 284,154,269 2,416,425 2,091,137 0.74%
2000 281,421,906 2,403,351 2,079,823 0.74%
      avg

0.73%

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I calculated the ratios for Texas, it seems to proportional to the rate for the USA, but lower overall ... (2016 has full death data proportional to heart disease, because I couldn't find the full year number, and 2018 isn't published yet with the Texas CDC, so that's a proportion from the U.S. CDC number and the Texas CDC number from 2017. So next, New York City, which is the only city that the CDC actually breaks out ...

year population full year mort 45 week mort ratio
2020 29,423,694   204,879 0.70%
2019 28,995,881   176,427 0.61%
2018* 28,568,068 204,982 177,388 0.62%
2017 28,140,254 198,106 171,438 0.61%
2016* 27,712,441 191,230 165,488 0.60%
2015 27,284,628 189,166 163,701 0.60%
2014 26,856,814 183,303 158,628 0.59%
2013 26,429,001 178,501 154,472 0.58%
2012 26,001,188 173,935 150,521 0.58%
2011 25,573,374 167,997 145,382 0.57%
2010 25,145,561 166,059 143,705 0.57%

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NYC ratios ... but I couldn't get the final data for 2017 and 2018. I did find from NYC vital Statistics that the death rate per thousand actually decreased from 2017 from 2016, and the data for the other years shows that. NYC doesn't seem to show the same general decay of health that the rest of the country shows ... except of course for the COVID-19 2020 year, which is far, far higher than the rest of the country, or higher than the test case of Texas ... So maybe Maybe Bloomberg's efforts to regulate unhealthy behavior helped? Maybe better quality healthcare in general? But the COVID-19 year was a wrecking ball for NYC compared to the USA averages ...

Year Population All Deaths 45 Week Deaths Ratio
2020 8,354,782   73,152 0.88%
2019 8,336,817   46,657 0.56%
2018* 8,318,852      
2017* 8,300,887      
2016 8,282,922 54,280 46,973 0.57%
2015 8,264,957 54,120 46,835 0.57%
2014 8,246,993 53,034 45,895 0.56%
2013 8,229,028 53,409 46,219 0.56%
2012 8,211,063 52,455 45,394 0.55%
2011 8,193,098 52,789 45,683 0.56%
2010 8,175,133 52,575 45,498 0.56%

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1 hour ago, Sean said:


Florida Governor Extends Ban On Cities Imposing Their Own Mask Mandates—Critic Calls Move A ‘Killing Spree’

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/11/25/florida-gov-extends-ban-on-cities-imposing-their-own-masks-mandates-critic-calls-move-a-killing-spree/

Ron is a fucking lunatic. He's emblematic of the entire Republican distrust for science and embrace of sky-fairy bullshit.

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1 hour ago, Sean said:


Florida Governor Extends Ban On Cities Imposing Their Own Mask Mandates—Critic Calls Move A ‘Killing Spree’

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/11/25/florida-gov-extends-ban-on-cities-imposing-their-own-masks-mandates-critic-calls-move-a-killing-spree/

Holy fucking shit. Lunatic is right 

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3 hours ago, Sean said:


Florida Governor Extends Ban On Cities Imposing Their Own Mask Mandates—Critic Calls Move A ‘Killing Spree’

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/11/25/florida-gov-extends-ban-on-cities-imposing-their-own-masks-mandates-critic-calls-move-a-killing-spree/

I would love it if those cities just ignored him and did them (mask mandates) anyway.

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2 hours ago, mikewof said:

NYC doesn't seem to show the same general decay of health that the rest of the country shows

...

So maybe Maybe Bloomberg's efforts to regulate unhealthy behavior helped? Maybe better quality healthcare in general?

Talking completely out my ass, but:

- we have the lowest car ownership rate in the Country.  People walk everywhere, so we get more exercise than most Americans.

- probably related: we have much lower obesity rates.  Whenever I travel or see street footage from other States, I'm always taken aback at how much bigger most people are. 

- NY's one of only two States that implemented the "Basic Health Plan" part of Obamacare.  And NY City has another fill-in-the-gap plan, for folks who can't get on Obamacare due to immigration status or whatnot.  Between those, and Medicaid expansion... I literally don't know anyone who's uninsured, anymore.  (Ten-fifteen years ago, it was most people I knew).

2 hours ago, mikewof said:

except of course for the COVID-19 2020 year, which is far, far higher than the rest of the country, or higher than the test case of Texas

...

But the COVID-19 year was a wrecking ball for NYC compared to the USA averages ...

Give it time.  It hit us like a tsunami; it seems to be unfolding over the rest of the country like a rising tide. 

The fatality rates soar once the healthcare system gets overwhelmed.  That happened fast, here.  Elsewhere, seems to be happening slowly, but,... it's starting to happen.  

And while the mortality rate's been lowered, due to better diagnostics & treatment... there are factors that play against the rest of the country, compared to NYC:

1  -  one of the overlooked good things about the way it hit us fast & hard, is that we have had very little Covidiocy; it never got a widespread grip, here.   There's some, but... well, IRL, I know exactly ONE.  And she still wears a mask, when she's in Brooklyn (she lives in Staten Island).  

2  -  we have way more healthcare infrastructure.  I have two walk-in clinics less than a block way; can get a Covid test at one of them.  There's a hospital ER 13 (short) blocks (0.8 miles) west of here, and another 8 (long) blocks (1.1miles) north of here.  Meanwhile, in rural America, hospitals have been closing in record numbers, for years... 

3  -  during the worst of it, we were able to hire nurses and doctors, on contract basis, from other States.  But in the scenario that seems to be unfolding, where most States get hit hard... we can't return the favor to the entire fucking country; the numbers don't work out.

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4 hours ago, Sean said:


Florida Governor Extends Ban On Cities Imposing Their Own Mask Mandates—Critic Calls Move A ‘Killing Spree’

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/11/25/florida-gov-extends-ban-on-cities-imposing-their-own-masks-mandates-critic-calls-move-a-killing-spree/

That kind of bullshit works best if you hire an Uber driver to manage the COVID stats...someone with the ability to catapult the propaganda. 
 

yeah, he did that too. He is neither crazy nor dumb. He’s just another bullshitter who hates half the country. 

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3 hours ago, frenchie said:

Talking completely out my ass, but:

- we have the lowest car ownership rate in the Country.  People walk everywhere, so we get more exercise than most Americans.

- probably related: we have much lower obesity rates.  Whenever I travel or see street footage from other States, I'm always taken aback at how much bigger most people are. 

- NY's one of only two States that implemented the "Basic Health Plan" part of Obamacare.  And NY City has another fill-in-the-gap plan, for folks who can't get on Obamacare due to immigration status or whatnot.  Between those, and Medicaid expansion... I literally don't know anyone who's uninsured, anymore.  (Ten-fifteen years ago, it was most people I knew).

Give it time.  It hit us like a tsunami; it seems to be unfolding over the rest of the country like a rising tide. 

The fatality rates soar once the healthcare system gets overwhelmed.  That happened fast, here.  Elsewhere, seems to be happening slowly, but,... it's starting to happen.  

And while the mortality rate's been lowered, due to better diagnostics & treatment... there are factors that play against the rest of the country, compared to NYC:

1  -  one of the overlooked good things about the way it hit us fast & hard, is that we have had very little Covidiocy; it never got a widespread grip, here.   There's some, but... well, IRL, I know exactly ONE.  And she still wears a mask, when she's in Brooklyn (she lives in Staten Island).  

2  -  we have way more healthcare infrastructure.  I have two walk-in clinics less than a block way; can get a Covid test at one of them.  There's a hospital ER 13 (short) blocks (0.8 miles) west of here, and another 8 (long) blocks (1.1miles) north of here.  Meanwhile, in rural America, hospitals have been closing in record numbers, for years... 

3  -  during the worst of it, we were able to hire nurses and doctors, on contract basis, from other States.  But in the scenario that seems to be unfolding, where most States get hit hard... we can't return the favor to the entire fucking country; the numbers don't work out.

People are healthy in NYC -- definitely low obesity -- they live a European lifestyle. BUT the cite I saw mentioned the plummeting health for some of the areas with the deepest poverty. That lack of car ownership is excellent for all the people who don't live in food deserts. But I remember my sister's old neighborhood in The Bronx, 20 minute walk to the Western Beef, and the Bodega's in the area charged 25-cents for a Chocadile, 50-cents for a 40-ounce high-alcohol Midnight Dragon, and $1.80 for an apple that looked like it had fallen under the truck. I think things have become better since then.

Here in Colorado, I know a good twenty people who work hard every day and have no health insurance. Obamacare was supposed to help, but it eliminated the "emergency-only" healthcare plans that cost $80/month. That's what I would likely have right now, but those plans don't exist anymore because they didn't meet the minimum Obamacare requirements.

NYC does have good healthcare, but it's still useless for people who can't afford health insurance. One of my sisters was laid off from her job at a Catholic college because of the 'Rona, she still hasn't received an unemployment check, but subsidized healthcare materialized in two weeks. I guess that's a new priority there.

Okay, so your thought is that the rest of the country will see the kind of ratio that NYC saw, but nobody even comes close to what happened there. NYC was at 600% mortality and even higher. Even high averages around the USA barely hit 25%. IIRC, a few counties hit a bit above 30% a few months ago. NYC has a polarized economy ... some of the wealthiest Americans and some the poorest Americans, separated by sometimes less than ten miles.

Anyway, I don't know how NYC did it, but yeah, everyone there whom I know -- even a semi-employed chess tutor and an artist -- have health insurance. It would be good if everyone else could manage that, but it's so far from reality here. At least the children are insured in most places, we learned pretty early that emergency rooms are lousy places to do primary care.

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2 hours ago, mikewof said:

People are healthy in NYC -- definitely low obesity -- they live a European lifestyle. BUT the cite I saw mentioned the plummeting health for some of the areas with the deepest poverty. That lack of car ownership is excellent for all the people who don't live in food deserts. But I remember my sister's old neighborhood in The Bronx, 20 minute walk to the Western Beef, and the Bodega's in the area charged 25-cents for a Chocadile, 50-cents for a 40-ounce high-alcohol Midnight Dragon, and $1.80 for an apple that looked like it had fallen under the truck. I think things have become better since then.

No, not really.  The deserts have gotten a bit smaller, due to gentrification, but... it's still like that in places.

Quote

Here in Colorado, I know a good twenty people who work hard every day and have no health insurance. Obamacare was supposed to help, but it eliminated the "emergency-only" healthcare plans that cost $80/month. That's what I would likely have right now, but those plans don't exist anymore because they didn't meet the minimum Obamacare requirements.

NYC does have good healthcare, but it's still useless for people who can't afford health insurance. One of my sisters was laid off from her job at a Catholic college because of the 'Rona, she still hasn't received an unemployment check, but subsidized healthcare materialized in two weeks. I guess that's a new priority there.

...

Anyway, I don't know how NYC did it, but yeah, everyone there whom I know -- even a semi-employed chess tutor and an artist -- have health insurance. It would be good if everyone else could manage that, but it's so far from reality here. At least the children are insured in most places, we learned pretty early that emergency rooms are lousy places to do primary care.

Sliding scale: premiums $0.00 to $25 a month... $0.00 deductible... $0.00 to $50 co-pays.  It fills the gap between medicaid and Obamacare.

https://info.nystateofhealth.ny.gov/sites/default/files/Essential Plan At A Glance Card - English_1.pdf

Like expanding Medicaid  -  any State could implement it, the Federal pays part of it.  Unlike expanded Medicaid, only NY & Minnesota took 'em up on this offer. 

Trump tried to sabotage it, of course, blocked the funding  -  NY & MN sued, and Trump backed down.  The pandemic wasn't the start of the bad blood between Trump & Cuomo.

 

Quote

Okay, so your thought is that the rest of the country will see the kind of ratio that NYC saw, but nobody even comes close to what happened there. NYC was at 600% mortality and even higher. Even high averages around the USA barely hit 25%. IIRC, a few counties hit a bit above 30% a few months ago. NYC has a polarized economy ... some of the wealthiest Americans and some the poorest Americans, separated by sometimes less than ten miles.

I'm not saying it will. I'm just saying it could, yet...

We're only just starting to see some reports of "no available ICU beds", in some parts of some States, so far.  That could change. 

There's no sign that hospitalizations are tapering off, yet, and we just had a bunch of superspreader events, this week.  So... ask me in 2-3 weeks?

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23 minutes ago, frenchie said:
Quote

Okay, so your thought is that the rest of the country will see the kind of ratio that NYC saw, but nobody even comes close to what happened there...   ..

I'm not saying it will. I'm just saying it could, yet...

We're only just starting to see some reports of "no available ICU beds", in some parts of some States, so far.  That could change. 

There's no sign that hospitalizations are tapering off, yet, and we just had a bunch of superspreader events, this week.  So... ask me in 2-3 weeks?

Umm, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but many places around the country are almost that bad and the rate of infection is still getting steeper not flattening.

We know numbers can double in less than 3 days. The only reason that hasn't been happening is that people have been somewhat more compliant/careful... but this holiday week blew that out of the water.

Did you see the news about the military sending nurses to North Dakota because they're flat out? Or where SA'er Clove Hitch was saying that his hospital is now stuffed beyond capacity with covid cases?

Right now we have >2,000 people a day dying. A lot of metro areas are seeing tent in the parking lot for covid wards, and refrigerated trucks for the bodies, and a rising number of medical personnel either sick or walking off the job. There is no reason that 2k can't double by next week, and then double again... it will definitely stop doubling when everybody that can die of it, has died of it.

The question, can we slow it down and stop it before then?

- DSK

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20 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Umm, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but many places around the country are almost that bad and the rate of infection is still getting steeper not flattening.

We know numbers can double in less than 3 days. The only reason that hasn't been happening is that people have been somewhat more compliant/careful... but this holiday week blew that out of the water.

Did you see the news about the military sending nurses to North Dakota because they're flat out? Or where SA'er Clove Hitch was saying that his hospital is now stuffed beyond capacity with covid cases?

Right now we have >2,000 people a day dying. A lot of metro areas are seeing tent in the parking lot for covid wards, and refrigerated trucks for the bodies, and a rising number of medical personnel either sick or walking off the job. There is no reason that 2k can't double by next week, and then double again... it will definitely stop doubling when everybody that can die of it, has died of it.

The question, can we slow it down and stop it before then?

- DSK

It's not even in the same league as what happened in NYC. If you tell me the state, I'll check the numbers in the CDC data. But the last time I did it, the absolute worst in the country was just above 30%. NYC during the worst of it was above 600%, I think it even hit 800% for a few days.

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Because to get to a few 100's of % above normal, NY didn't go through a few 10's of % above normal first....

 

Actually why is a few 10's of % even acceptable...

 

 

Glimpsing at Mikey's posts are like looking into an abyss of stupidity.

 

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4 minutes ago, Ease the sheet. said:

Because to get to a few 100's of % above normal, NY didn't go through a few 10's of % above normal first....

 

Actually why is a few 10's of % even acceptable...

 

 

Glimpsing at Mikey's posts are like looking into an abyss of stupidity.

 

It's pretty startling. I blame fluoride in the water, or aliens. Maybe too much PCP as a child.

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54 minutes ago, mikewof said:

The last time I did it, the absolute worst in the country was just above 30%.

I believe you mentioned, up-thread, that El Paso normally has a mortality of... 8 per day?

They reported 28 covid-19 deaths, Wednesday. 

Their 7-day average, has been in the teens, for the last 2 weeks. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ease the sheet. said:

i blame fetal alcohol syndrome.

I was just talking about myself, your childhood may have been different.

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5 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

I was just talking about myself, your childhood may have been different.

maybe we should compare shattered wooden spoons. or swearing alliterations.

 

 

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51 minutes ago, frenchie said:

I believe you mentioned, up-thread, that El Paso normally has a mortality of... 8 per day?

They reported 28 covid-19 deaths, Wednesday. 

Their 7-day average, has been in the teens, for the last 2 weeks. 

 

 

Gosh. Mikey will tell you to check the bubonic plague cases. What could be causing those deaths? If only there was something to point at. 

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2 hours ago, frenchie said:

I believe you mentioned, up-thread, that El Paso normally has a mortality of... 8 per day?

They reported 28 covid-19 deaths, Wednesday. 

Their 7-day average, has been in the teens, for the last 2 weeks.

I don't remember, 8 per day seems pretty low, that would be less than 3k deaths per year, on a population of some 700,000 people. It should be about double that just to hit the USA average ... unless for some reason people refuse to die in El Paso.

Anyway, smaller towns will show weird data, they need to spread a bit to get a good idea of the average. 1 COVID death in Blackhawk, CO would be about 35,000% the annual average number of deaths there. And annualizing the deaths is also tough, even with NYC, the deaths aren't evenly spread through the year, as you know, they tend to clump up a bit more in the Spring and Fall.

NYC's rate of 600% was annualized, if we bother to correlate it to the week, say Week 15, then the average increase was less, about 433%. But the sample set with NYC was huge, we can get away with doing it week by week (even day by day) like that with a lower margin of error, than say Blackhawk, CO or even a town the size of El Paso.

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1 hour ago, Clove Hitch said:

Gosh. Mikey will tell you to check the bubonic plague cases. What could be causing those deaths? If only there was something to point at. 

Cripes. Not bubonic. Pneumonic. Have the nursing certification standards been relaxed? They are not the same thing, regardless the common bacteria.

And it's not unheard of ... just a few years ago Madagascar had an outbreak of pneumonic that infected a few thousand people. We get a few infections a year in Colorado.

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4 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

Because to get to a few 100's of % above normal, NY didn't go through a few 10's of % above normal first....

 

Actually why is a few 10's of % even acceptable...

 

 

Glimpsing at Mikey's posts are like looking into an abyss of stupidity.

 

If you are unable to follow a thread of inquiry, blame the operator.

Or maybe go back to school.

I get it, you're hoping and praying for the big outbreak that you and your wallaby jockeys swore was coming ... millions dead in the USA. And then it didn't happen, and you're still hoping not to be proved wrong, even if you have to pray to heaven for more corpses.

What's the deal with the Australians in these COVID threads? Ghoulish lot, you are.

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4 hours ago, mikewof said:

If you tell me the state, I'll check the numbers in the CDC data.

Jul 28, 2020 — The US government needs to strengthen the agency charged with preventing the spread of disease — not undermine it.
Oct 14, 2020 — How physician Deborah Birx's unreasonable demands for hospital data created a “debacle” at CDC.
Jul 16, 2020 — But Ryan Panchadsaram, who helps run a data-tracking site called Covid Exit Strategy, said that when he tried to collect the data from the CDC ...
Jul 15, 2020 — "Whatever they can do to fix the data in the interim is great. Long term, it needs to be improved in general," said Dr. Bill Winkenwerder, former ...
Jul 15, 2020 — Hospitals have been ordered to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all patient information to a central database ...
Aug 26, 2020 — A Monday shift in the CDC's testing guidelines that said people exposed to the virus who weren't showing symptoms didn't need to get tested ...
Jul 31, 2020 — The Trump administration had promised complete, transparent information on the coronavirus and hospital capacity. Instead, the new system ...
Aug 26, 2020 — A recent change to the CDC's COVID-19 testing guidelines may have come about thanks to President Trump.
Jul 22, 2020 — A Trump administration change in the way hospitals report coronavirus data is bringing confusion and more work to medical centers and states ...
Oct 5, 2020 — That request — issued by then-public affairs official Paul Alexander — came amid President Donald Trump's broader push to reopen schools, ...

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For fuck sake, now the Randumber Nanothermite contingent is back.

For that aberation alone, every one of you Aussies, on the entire continent should be forced to pray for forgiveness and perform a thousand Hail Marys.

If I had to share air with that slimy 9/11 Truther, I believe I would rather suffocate. Buzz Aldrin is still alive, maybe he can punch  some logic into Randumb?

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Mikey knows all about 9/11.

He started up a Truther group as a honey pot till they outed hm as a government shill.

Ask him about it sometime.

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On 11/28/2020 at 1:30 AM, mikewof said:

 

Good catch. Okay, so this is the final data, as Week 45 ... the average ratio is 0.73% and we're at 0.83% this year. 

OK MIke et al

Now you have some data you agree on, how about doing some analysis of that data to turn it into information?

I'll start, feel free to play along;

As Mikewof says, the mean mortality rate for the years studied is 0.73. The standard deviation (ie the measure of how much the mortality rate varies by year) is 0.03% if you include 2020, and 0.02% if we don't. And in this instance I'd suggest we shouldn't. (You can use the STDEV function in Excel to calculate the Standaed Deviation of a group of figures)

So if we look at out standard normal curve from stats 101, we know that;

  • 68% of all years should fall within one standard deviation of the mean
  • 95% of all years should fall within two standard deviations -> this is the 'standard' level where we judge a value is significant or not.
  • 99.74% of all years should fall within 3 standard deviations from the mean.

So looking out your numbers with a mean of .73% and this year being .83%, we can see that this year is 5 (five!) standard deviations from the mean.

That equates to a 1 in 2 million chance that this years score is the result of chance. This is the '5 sigma' level of certainty that is the gold standard to accept you have discovered a new subatomic particle. 3 Standard deviations above what is normally considered proof in population statistics.

So Mike... if you are keen on data, the data shows pretty clearly that this year something other than random chance has driven the mortality rate up by ~12.5%. What is your hypothesis as to what might have caused that?

If it was me, I might start looking at the avalanche of anecdotes that say it's covid 19.

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On 11/28/2020 at 1:36 AM, mikewof said:

Cripes. Not bubonic. Pneumonic. Have the nursing certification standards been relaxed? They are not the same thing, regardless the common bacteria.

And it's not unheard of ... just a few years ago Madagascar had an outbreak of pneumonic that infected a few thousand people. We get a few infections a year in Colorado.

By CDC mortality numbers pneumonic, bubonic and septicemic plague combined is slightly more deadly then prairie dog attacks.    CoViD > Black Death ^5 

37150431-A025-43A9-88C7-F644E5DD7038.jpeg

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California projecting ICU capacity to be reached by Xmas at current infection rates. Looking at full lockdown within a weeks time.

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10 hours ago, Lark said:

By CDC mortality numbers pneumonic, bubonic and septicemic plague combined is slightly more deadly then prairie dog attacks.    CoViD > Black Death ^5 

37150431-A025-43A9-88C7-F644E5DD7038.jpeg

Prairie dogs were the main source of the bacteria when I was a kid.

And what you wrote is correct, but you should temper that with the mortality. The mortality for untreated COVID-19 is well less than 1%. The mortality for untreated pneumonic is above 75%! It's incredibly deadly. And it still would be that deadly if not for the advent of antibiotics. The main reason you don't lose sleep over pestis is because we don't tend to eat critters in the fields any longer, and instead get our food prepackaged in the supermarkets.

That last bit you wrote up there is wrong as well. Ultimately, the danger of SARS-CoV-2 is in its NOVELTY. We have all had at least twenty or so coronavirus infections in our lifetimes and shrugged them off for the most part. In another year or two, SARS-CoV-2 won't be a danger because we'll all be exposed to it and it will be much like all the other coronaviruses and rhinoviruses that we barely notice.

But bacterium do not work that way. They have their own genetic agenda, they don't piggyback inside of our cells, they feed off of our cells, and reproduce independently from our cells. Most of the time bacteria is harmless, and even beneficial (like lactobacillus that transmits immunity through breast milk). But some incorrigible bacteria like strep, staph or pestis just keep killing people, year after year. And then sometimes they become "weaponized" into "superbugs" like MRSA that genetically evolve into HAIs that resist antibiotics.

And it's not just staph like MRSA that have become resistant in HAIs, even strep and pestis have evolved resistance in their CAI versions. What used to take a quick dose of penicillin in the 1950s now takes advanced antibiotics to get an infection under control.

This year, sure, what you wrote is correct. But all the years? What you wrote is wrong, and strep, staph and pestis will continue to kill millions long after COVID-19 is about as remembered by us as KC and the Sunshine Band.

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13 hours ago, Se7en said:

OK MIke et al

Now you have some data you agree on, how about doing some analysis of that data to turn it into information?

I'll start, feel free to play along;

As Mikewof says, the mean mortality rate for the years studied is 0.73. The standard deviation (ie the measure of how much the mortality rate varies by year) is 0.03% if you include 2020, and 0.02% if we don't. And in this instance I'd suggest we shouldn't. (You can use the STDEV function in Excel to calculate the Standaed Deviation of a group of figures)

So if we look at out standard normal curve from stats 101, we know that;

  • 68% of all years should fall within one standard deviation of the mean
  • 95% of all years should fall within two standard deviations -> this is the 'standard' level where we judge a value is significant or not.
  • 99.74% of all years should fall within 3 standard deviations from the mean.

So looking out your numbers with a mean of .73% and this year being .83%, we can see that this year is 5 (five!) standard deviations from the mean.

That equates to a 1 in 2 million chance that this years score is the result of chance. This is the '5 sigma' level of certainty that is the gold standard to accept you have discovered a new subatomic particle. 3 Standard deviations above what is normally considered proof in population statistics.

So Mike... if you are keen on data, the data shows pretty clearly that this year something other than random chance has driven the mortality rate up by ~12.5%. What is your hypothesis as to what might have caused that?

If it was me, I might start looking at the avalanche of anecdotes that say it's covid 19.

It's most likely COVID-19.

But you need to look at the populations that it mostly kills. It's mostly harmless to young, healthy people, and it gets more deadly to older, sicker people.

So ...

What happened in NYC? That's the important question, because it can hopefully help us understand what the underlying mortality was, and why SARS-CoV-2 was so deadly there, but has a very low IDR since.

Co-infections definitely come to mind, and that's been confirmed now in medical journals and the CDC data. (Remember back when the dim bulbs here ridiculed me for mentioning.co-infections?) But also things that we should really get under control, and which Frenchie and I and I think Steam IIRC mentioned, that the general health of our nation is falling. Deaths are undeniably trending upward.

Why?

Sugar? Lack of health insurance for a shit-ton of underemployed Americans? Pollution? Sedentary Netflix lifestyle? Popping magical pharma with every sniffle and ache rather than eating well and getting sufficient rest? Lack of live foods?

As Frenchie noted, this upward death trend is killing people who didn't used to die so easily ... middle aged men and women. Life has a 100% mortality rate, but we tend to prefer that only happen to the elderly, rather than middle aged (bad case) or the young (worst case).

That's what we should take from this. If COVID-19 can help us save some of the 7 million-some lives (many of them children) lost each year due to things like bad air, bad water, lack of food, and common bacterial infections, then we can pull some good out of all this.

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20 hours ago, Raz'r said:

California projecting ICU capacity to be reached by Xmas at current infection rates. Looking at full lockdown within a weeks time.

And it was reported that air travel in the US over the thanksgiving weekend was at its highest point since before the lockdown in March.  In the midst of a big wave.  Maybe we deserve what we are getting, if we as a nation, don't have any more concern for our own or others safety when health officials are literally PLEADING with people to stay home and not travel.  And travel over Christmas will likely be even higher.  

It feels like this is a darwinistic self-cull.  Maybe it's deserved.  

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7 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

And it was reported that air travel in the US over the thanksgiving weekend was at its highest point since before the lockdown in March.  In the midst of a big wave.  Maybe we deserve what we are getting, if we as a nation, don't have any more concern for our own or others safety when health officials are literally PLEADING with people to stay home and not travel.  And travel over Christmas will likely be even higher.  

It feels like this is a darwinistic self-cull.  Maybe it's deserved.  

Unfortunate about the collateral damage.

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28 minutes ago, Ishmael said:

Unfortunate about the collateral damage.

Yeah, of course that's the obvious downside.  But I'm betting a big % of the collateral damage are the families and friends of the travelers who willingly invited them to travel to come see them during the holidays.  

We have a good friend in Mexico City who was scheduled to come stay with us over Christmas.  We called her and said, sorry you'll have to cancel your flight - we just can't take the risk of you traveling through several airports when the COVID risk is this high.  Maybe next year.  

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9 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Yeah, of course that's the obvious downside.  But I'm betting a big % of the collateral damage are the families and friends of the travelers who willingly invited them to travel to come see them during the holidays.  

We have a good friend in Mexico City who was scheduled to come stay with us over Christmas.  We called her and said, sorry you'll have to cancel your flight - we just can't take the risk of you traveling through several airports when the COVID risk is this high.  Maybe next year.  

People from out of town? Out of country? Damn, we're down to a couple of social contacts outside and my aged aunt inside.

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1 hour ago, Burning Man said:

And it was reported that air travel in the US over the thanksgiving weekend was at its highest point since before the lockdown in March.  In the midst of a big wave.  Maybe we deserve what we are getting, if we as a nation, don't have any more concern for our own or others safety when health officials are literally PLEADING with people to stay home and not travel.  And travel over Christmas will likely be even higher.  

It feels like this is a darwinistic self-cull.  Maybe it's deserved.  

The whole fucking country has been, and will continue to be darwinistic.

Survival of the fittest, baby!

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The folks on Reddit are doing the Lord's work.   This is a thought provoking graph.  Of course, focusing solely on number of deaths is incredibly myopic and the overwhelmed hospitals and long term, serious disabilities from Covid need to be considered, too. 

294pejeum1261.png?width=960&crop=smart&a

 

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25 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

The folks on Reddit are doing the Lord's work.   This is a thought provoking graph.  Of course, focusing solely on number of deaths is incredibly myopic and the overwhelmed hospitals and long term, serious disabilities from Covid need to be considered, too.

Have the economic impacts of the lockdowns on the lives, health and futures of those who live in poverty been sufficiently considered?

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1 hour ago, Ease the sheet. said:
3 hours ago, Burning Man said:

And it was reported that air travel in the US over the thanksgiving weekend was at its highest point since before the lockdown in March.  In the midst of a big wave.  Maybe we deserve what we are getting, if we as a nation, don't have any more concern for our own or others safety when health officials are literally PLEADING with people to stay home and not travel.  And travel over Christmas will likely be even higher.  

It feels like this is a darwinistic self-cull.  Maybe it's deserved.  

The whole fucking country has been, and will continue to be darwinistic.

Survival of the fittest, baby!

Agreed.  I'm embarrassed that we've become a nation of narcissistic, self-absorbed, selfish cunts.  And that cuts across all party, ethnic and socioeconomic lines.  

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7 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Agreed.  I'm embarrassed that we've become a nation of narcissistic, self-absorbed, selfish cunts.  And that cuts across all party, ethnic and socioeconomic lines.  

That is the inescapable result of corporatism.

Marx was right.

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5 minutes ago, astro said:
14 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Agreed.  I'm embarrassed that we've become a nation of narcissistic, self-absorbed, selfish cunts.  And that cuts across all party, ethnic and socioeconomic lines.  

That is the inescapable result of corporatism social media.

Marx Zuckerberg was right.

FIFY x2

Also commonly known as:  "Muh Rats"

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

Have the economic impacts of the lockdowns on the lives, health and futures of those who live in poverty been sufficiently considered?

Have the social impacts of no lockdowns on the lives, health and futures of those who live in poverty been sufficiently considered?

No.

Mikey never gives up.  He has no shame when proven wrong and that has happened countless times.

There is nothing to be done with someone with no morals, someone who lies for a living.

The Death of Shame, or the Rise of Shamelessness?

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1 minute ago, Burning Man said:
5 minutes ago, astro said:
14 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

Agreed.  I'm embarrassed that we've become a nation of narcissistic, self-absorbed, selfish cunts.  And that cuts across all party, ethnic and socioeconomic lines.  

That is the inescapable result of corporatism social media.

Marx Zuckerberg was right.

FIFY x2

fukn-ellen.gif

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1 hour ago, astro said:

Have the social impacts of no lockdowns on the lives, health and futures of those who live in poverty been sufficiently considered?

No.

Mikey never gives up.  He has no shame when proven wrong and that has happened countless times.

There is nothing to be done with someone with no morals, someone who lies for a living.

The Death of Shame, or the Rise of Shamelessness?

It's funny watching Mikey blame systemic problems with the American way of life on covid.

Covid was the stress test. America failed.

Who'd of thunk it?

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On 12/1/2020 at 9:11 PM, Burning Man said:

And it was reported that air travel in the US over the thanksgiving weekend was at its highest point since before the lockdown in March.  In the midst of a big wave.  Maybe we deserve what we are getting, if we as a nation, don't have any more concern for our own or others safety when health officials are literally PLEADING with people to stay home and not travel.  And travel over Christmas will likely be even higher.  

It feels like this is a darwinistic self-cull.  Maybe it's deserved.  

That's what I was thinking about, when I said some of the rest of country might see NY-like numbers, yet. 

Current wave + Thanksgiving + Christmas + NYE... who knows how bad it'll be by Inauguration day. 

 

22 hours ago, mikewof said:

Have the economic impacts of the lockdowns on the lives, health and futures of those who live in poverty been sufficiently considered?

The economic impact happens even if you don't lock down.  In States that had lockdowns, cell-phone data shows most people mostly stopped going out, before the lockdown came into effect.  In States that had practically no lockdown, people still curbed their outings a lot.   When States re-opened, people started going out, but when cases surged, they stayed home again.  

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23 minutes ago, frenchie said:

That's what I was thinking about, when I said some of the rest of country might see NY-like numbers, yet. 

Current wave + Thanksgiving + Christmas + NYE... who knows how bad it'll be by Inauguration day. 

 

The economic impact happens even if you don't lock down.  In States that had lockdowns, cell-phone data shows most people mostly stopped going out, before the lockdown came into effect.  In States that had practically no lockdown, people still curbed their outings a lot.   When States re-opened, people started going out, but when cases surged, they stayed home again.  

Maybe. I guess we'll see when the dust settles. There is a lot of unemployment and somehow, we'll have to pay for the COVID tax dollars.

Any guess to where the additional deaths will fall by the end of the year? 270,000? Less? More?

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The trend does not look good.  Given the reports of widespread travel over the Thanksgiving weekend, in a few weeks this may look far, far worse.

Screen Shot 2020-12-02 at 11.06.39 PM.png

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20 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

It's funny watching Mikey blame systemic problems with the American way of life on covid.

Covid was the stress test. America failed.

Who'd of thunk it?

But it's more funny when you in fact make up a bunch of nonsense with little or no knowledge of what is happening here, from your perch of luxury in Australia.

Our "systemic problems" as I keep repeating over, and over are mostly institutional, and they are built on a foundation of racism.

There is an ethnic disparity in infectious and non-infectious diseases, but that was around long before COVID came and it will be here after if we think that these problems can be solved by a magic pharmaceutical.

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1 hour ago, mikewof said:

But it's more funny when you in fact make up a bunch of nonsense with little or no knowledge of what is happening here, from your perch of luxury in Australia.

Our "systemic problems" as I keep repeating over, and over are mostly institutional, and they are built on a foundation of racism.

There is an ethnic disparity in infectious and non-infectious diseases, but that was around long before COVID came and it will be here after if we think that these problems can be solved by a magic pharmaceutical.

It’s ok.  Don’t take the vaccine. I suggest your kids take it however. 

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59 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

It’s ok.  Don’t take the vaccine. I suggest your kids take it however. 

As usual, the message got lost in Mikey's delusion.

Covid is not to blame for the social and health problems caused by a lockdown.

The blame rests with the lack of a coherent safety net and the lack of a cohesive society.

A vaccine won't change that.

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9 hours ago, Raz'r said:

It’s ok.  Don’t take the vaccine. I suggest your kids take it however. 

I'll be way, way down the list of priority to get it. I'm the kind of demographic that gets the vaccine when it's free at the Walgreens.

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8 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

As usual, the message got lost in Mikey's delusion.

Covid is not to blame for the social and health problems caused by a lockdown.

The blame rests with the lack of a coherent safety net and the lack of a cohesive society.

A vaccine won't change that.

That's what I wrote. You just copied what I wrote, and called what I wrote "delusion." Dumbkoff.

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16 minutes ago, mikewof said:

That's what I wrote. You just copied what I wrote, and called what I wrote "delusion." Dumbkoff.

Imagine a vaccine designed to cure all of the societal ills. Imagine!

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13 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Imagine a vaccine designed to cure all of the societal ills. Imagine!

Perhaps they could design a vaccine that would make people believe that they were healthy and to except government propaganda as fact.

Of course you have already acquired herd amenity, Razzle, but there are still millions of deplorables out there that aren't buying in. 

Imagine, no more need for gatekeepers! I wonder if you can.....

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6 minutes ago, Venom said:

Imagine, no more need for gatekeepers!

Or English teachers.

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1 hour ago, Raz'r said:

Imagine a vaccine designed to cure all of the societal ills. Imagine!

Imagine a vaccine that prevents you from thinking you're Ease the Sheet. Imagine!

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13 hours ago, mikewof said:

Maybe. I guess we'll see when the dust settles. There is a lot of unemployment and somehow, we'll have to pay for the COVID tax dollars.

Any guess to where the additional deaths will fall by the end of the year? 270,000? Less? More?

Sort of depends on what you mean, but I don't see any way it comes in less than 270k. 

As of week 45, and ignoring the effects of the reporting lag, pretending the drop-off in the most recent weeks was an actual drop-off (insert bitter laugh...):

-  If by "additional deaths", you mean how many deaths, from all causes, this year, compared to the 2014-2019 average: so far, it already stands at 390,731.  That'd mean 451,512 by year's end.

-  If you mean 2020, compared to 2019, that 's at 305,500; annualized, 353,022 by year's end.

-  If you account for the fact that mortality was already rising... take the 2014-2019 average increase... (47,621; yes, I realize I should have done it as a percentage, instead of just a raw-numbers average, but this is sloppy seats-of-the-pants estimating in the first place) subtract it from this year's increase to arrive at how much it's increased, above what we could/should have expected  -  currently,  257,879.  Year's end, 297,993.

Since the recent drop-off is an artifact of reporting lag, not an actual drop-off... I'm 100% sure that last number will be above 300k.  90% sure it'll be above 320k. 

 

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6 hours ago, frenchie said:

Sort of depends on what you mean, but I don't see any way it comes in less than 270k. 

As of week 45, and ignoring the effects of the reporting lag, pretending the drop-off in the most recent weeks was an actual drop-off (insert bitter laugh...):

-  If by "additional deaths", you mean how many deaths, from all causes, this year, compared to the 2014-2019 average: so far, it already stands at 390,731.  That'd mean 451,512 by year's end.

-  If you mean 2020, compared to 2019, that 's at 305,500; annualized, 353,022 by year's end.

-  If you account for the fact that mortality was already rising... take the 2014-2019 average increase... (47,621; yes, I realize I should have done it as a percentage, instead of just a raw-numbers average, but this is sloppy seats-of-the-pants estimating in the first place) subtract it from this year's increase to arrive at how much it's increased, above what we could/should have expected  -  currently,  257,879.  Year's end, 297,993.

Since the recent drop-off is an artifact of reporting lag, not an actual drop-off... I'm 100% sure that last number will be above 300k.  90% sure it'll be above 320k. 

 

I wonder if Woofies the wonder class warrior has look at who’s dying. It ain’t just old white folk hanging on, it’s working class, younger, brown people.

 

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19 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

I wonder if Woofies the wonder class warrior has look at who’s dying. It ain’t just old white folk hanging on, it’s working class, younger, brown people.

Race baiting again, Razzle? :D

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21 hours ago, Bus Driver said:

The trend does not look good.  Given the reports of widespread travel over the Thanksgiving weekend, in a few weeks this may WILL look far, far worse.

Screen Shot 2020-12-02 at 11.06.39 PM.png

FIFY

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This morning, an nice surprise from the right-wing tubthumpers-for-Jesus at Pat Roberson.com....... Dr Francis Collins, who rescued the floundering Humane Genome Project in an earlier generation, was on their send-God-money TV show urging people to accept the vaccine.

I was a little surprised at how clearly and definitely the news announcer was denouncing the internet anti-vax rumors. Pat Robertson, animated skeleton, did not make a personal appearance but presumably he approves of this topic.

I hope this helps increase the number of USAnians who accept the vaccine

- DSK

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59 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

This morning, an nice surprise from the right-wing tubthumpers-for-Jesus at Pat Roberson.com....... Dr Francis Collins, who rescued the floundering Humane Genome Project in an earlier generation, was on their send-God-money TV show urging people to accept the vaccine.

I was a little surprised at how clearly and definitely the news announcer was denouncing the internet anti-vax rumors. Pat Robertson, animated skeleton, did not make a personal appearance but presumably he approves of this topic.

I hope this helps increase the number of USAnians who accept the vaccine

- DSK

As usual, I think we US folk will come together and kick this thing eventually.  It will take some time, but the science is there, so without the constant orange vomit, clearer heads will prevail.  

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On 11/13/2020 at 8:11 PM, Chris in Santa Cruz, CA said:

the COVID-19 thing is shooting for the stars, make sure you are wearing masks, socially distancing and washing your hands!

with that said, we now get to see how long the GOP leadership will hold its hand over the match and kill people in support of our treasonous leader before pulling the hook out

Biden needs to get on the horn to the people loud and often and fill the vacuum left by the money grubbing power mongers

Unless you are prepared to remove and isolate the infected an on/off lockdown will fail.

I'm not sure how many England has had now but there seems to be a never ending series that start with a pre-lockdown party followed by an end of lockdown party.

Personal hygiene and avoidance are generally successful.

For a start, those imposing the lockdown will allow lots of "essential" workers to continue to circulate.  The definition of essential seems somewhat fluid. 

As evidenced by all the politicians telling everyone to stay home for Thanksgiving and then having family get togethers few will obey leaders who don't follow their own rules.

So far, the "15 days to flatten the curve" is the only program I've seen work and then folks reverted.

The majority of anti-vaxxers seem to be Democrats if you really believe that party affiliation can be related to stupidity.

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Biden has.  100 daze masking from when he gets in.  so.  Ball is in the trumpaloo's court.  

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