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EYESAILOR

The UK Variant

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15 minutes ago, mad said:

If that's the case he can go onto the ever increasing ignore list, it was obviously a sock, just wasn't aware who.

His mental health has obviously taken a massive battering the last 12 months, is he jobless, homeless and recently divorced with no access rights?

He can move in with Jack. They will then both have someone who could be fucked listening to themselves. 

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On 12/22/2020 at 4:07 PM, jack_sparrow said:

I didn't say that ..fuck off.

Your Kate v Jack fight should be a cage match. It can head the card at ‘Bullshitmainia 21.’

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On 1/1/2021 at 5:22 AM, Kate short for Bob said:

It doesn't mean much at all.  However it is useful in explaining the lack of effectiveness of the new Tier lockdown system in the UK.  Given the lack of quality control around the PCR testing in the UK it is even doubtful that this variant is more infectious.  For example some regions the new variant although present is not appearing in the statistics in any great number.

The 70% is derived from the calculation that the old variants had a 9% infection rate i.e. if someone has the virus they will infect 9% of their close contacts.  The new variant is estimated to be 15% i.e. if you have the virus then you are likely to infect 15%.   15-9=6.  6/9=0.7 i.e. 70%. 

MikeyVirus.jpg.a0d2c1c9fa58cd3d945e3777fef4822a.jpg

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On 1/4/2021 at 10:42 PM, LB 15 said:

Jack Sparrow will be ecstatic. He wants us to step up and start acting like the grown up countries like Italy, France and Spain. Of course he blames Covid 2.0 on Boris Johnson. If they stayed in the EU, none of this would have happened.

If the UK had stayed in the EU, then none of this would have happened.  

In case you hadn't noticed......it was immediately after the UK voted to leave the EU, that Trump was elected. This in turn led to the trade war with China , culminating in the release of the Corona Virus.  

If you refer to page 1074 of the Brexit thread , there is a succinct forty three paragraph post from Jack explaining the history of the virus and its direct causal link with UK fisheries policy and the Good Friday Agreement.  

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1 hour ago, EYESAILOR said:

If the UK had stayed in the EU, then none of this would have happened.  

In case you hadn't noticed......it was immediately after the UK voted to leave the EU, that Trump was elected. This in turn led to the trade war with China , culminating in the release of the Corona Virus.  

If you refer to page 1074 of the Brexit thread , there is a succinct forty three paragraph post from Jack explaining the history of the virus and its direct causal link with UK fisheries policy and the Good Friday Agreement.  

Well played.

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This new strain is more infectious.

Is there any data yet on if it's more or less deadly? or the same.

 

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If the current assumption is proven correct that this 'UK variant' is indeed more infectious, the question whether more people die from it is at first independent.

Assuming that it incurs the same fatality rate, this will give you a higher total sum of deaths in the end. 

Example: 1000 infected with the 'old variant' may give you 15 deaths at an assumed IFR of 1.5 percent.

If the 'UK variant' turned out to be 50 per cent more infectious, 1500 infected at the same IFR lead to 23 deaths.

Figures only examplary.

I try to steer away from assumptions, hypothesis or opinions here. Much is unknown, unproven and subject of ongoing scientific work.

Time and again our inquietude opens ginormous cans of worms.

My advice: spend that time with friends and families, even remotely, less here.

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1 hour ago, Matagi said:

Assuming that it incurs the same fatality rate, this will give you a higher total sum of deaths in the end. 

If the 'UK variant' turned out to be 50 per cent more

The rate of infection of virus itself (not actual community infection level or Ri) or Ro is 'exponential' so 50% to say R1 = R1.5 which is far more than 50% more cases is it not?? Mat you better at numbers than I. :D

If IFR the same but the Ro higher then that higher total from more cases at what ever actual Ri is PLUS if number of hospitalised cases overwhelmes health care then add to that more Covid deaths from no/inadequate treatment PLUS consequential deaths on the basis being denied access to care for other medical issues.

AkA sadly London in about a fortnight say NHS.

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How do you distinguish between a ) a variant being more communicable and b) a decline in preventive measures due to "fatigue" (poor babies) and massive interstate and air travel for indoor family gatherings?

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8 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

How do you distinguish between a ) a variant being more communicable and b) a decline in preventive measures due to "fatigue" (poor babies) and massive interstate and air travel for indoor family gatherings?

Lab work. It should be possible to test to see if the variant is more intrinsically communicable. I don't think that's been done yet. 

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Well then Don't Split Doses. Make the assholes wear masks.

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15 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

This new strain is more infectious.

Except here in Queensland where it appears to be much less infectious than any previous strains. Of course it could just be that making it compulsory to wear a face mask when alone in your car could be the silver bullet that the world has been searching for. 

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

Except here in Queensland where it appears to be much less infectious than any previous strains. Of course it could just be that making it compulsory to wear a face mask when alone in your car could be the silver bullet that the world has been searching for. 

Funny, you might even be correct.

if the original was bloody infectious and this one is fucking infectious, it stands to reason that wearing a mask alone in your car will offer even more protection.

I heard a rumour that Anna is going to be door knocking in person to see who's answering the door, maskless.

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2 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

Funny, you might even be correct.

if the original was bloody infectious and this one is fucking infectious, it stands to reason that wearing a mask alone in your car will offer even more protection.

Like a bloke wearing a condom while masterbating might stop his wife getting pregnant? You can’t be too safe I guess. 

You are right it is 70% more infectious- I just read it on facebook.

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Both tweets worth looking at.

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Tom Frieden is former CDC Director, he knows what he talks about.

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The lack of urgency in the US to get the vaccine into arms before this variants overwhelms us is beyond me. Even in our local county and is pretty good, they are only starting 75+ olds on Tuesday and only have 3000 doses so all appointments will filled within hours of the announcement. This is ridiculous.

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43 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

The lack of urgency in the US to get the vaccine into arms before this variants overwhelms us is beyond me.

US #3 in world by gross number and #2 per capita with Israel way clear at #1. The US, UK and Denmark nearly a dead heat. 

The UK their numbers dated only Jan 3. Brits are having roll out issues and being cute with their numbers like all their Covid numbers. Health Secretary claims as of today it is 1.5 million up only 200k for the week.

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Since this variant has been identified in my area I must assume it will soon be everywhere. A thought I had this morning about mutations is that while there have been a number of mutations only those most successful at transmitting will be seen in the population. It's a basic example of only the strong survive.

Denying basic logic and science is just burying your head in the sand or up your ass. The variant identified in Houston last summer has been reported to contributing to the fast spread in Texas and surrounding areas, the UK one sadly appears to be better at it.  I am not bothering to go back to find those reports since it just encourages the deniers to post endless bullshit.

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13 hours ago, Matagi said:

Both tweets worth looking at.

Good find.

Mate you note this from Kall tweet. Talks of the Infection Rate (Io) going 11 - 15%  so this is the % infection increase being bandied around by Governments. So common mistake is think they are just talking an increase in cases.

"15% of contacts of variant become infected vs 11% of the wild-type virus
- An est. 30-50% higher attack rate ergo more infectious (all age groups, all regions)"

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On 1/9/2021 at 9:19 AM, Shortforbob said:

This new strain is more infectious.

Is there any data yet on if it's more or less deadly? or the same.

 

Appears to be the same.

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15 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

Appears to be the same.

See above how you first have to define 'deadly'. In itself: same. As an argument of a function that includes 'number of infected people': possibly quite a difference.

But the UK seems to get the vaccinations going. 

So much for German efficacy...

vacc.jpg.fff029ca76793eb8ec2795d115a9231a.jpg

Btw: has anyone seen this Guardian report: One in five in England have had Covid, modelling suggests.

if it is true that areas such as Tower Hamlets and others have seen a 50% infection rate in total, we would probably start to see effects of herd immunity in some places? Anyone seen anything / data on that?

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Matagi said:

See above how you first have to define 'deadly'. In itself: same. As an argument of a function that includes 'number of infected people': possibly quite a difference.

 

Oh FFS. Read the question I was answering. The distinction had already been made.

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6 minutes ago, Matagi said:

 

Btw: has anyone seen this Guardian report: One in five in England have had Covid, modelling suggests.

Seen it, don't believe it, out of line with my experience by orders of magnitude,.

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10 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

Oh FFS. Read the question I was answering. The distinction had already been made.

Take it like a man, darling.

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Oh good, haven't put anyone onto iggy for ages.

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8 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Seen it, don't believe it, out of line with my experience by orders of magnitude,.

Everybody listen up: the scientistician has spoken! Everything is in order. Says his gut. Write it in stone and make it law!

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Oh I see a number of Gorillas have tested positive for covid in San Diego Zoo,, They say that it's the first time transmission of Covid has gone human - Primate..

But I thought we already knew that..  it crossed quite easily to an orange baboon..

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17 hours ago, Matagi said:

...But the UK seems to get the vaccinations going. 

So much for German efficacy...

  vacc.jpg.fff029ca76793eb8ec2795d115a9231a.jpg

Remember the UK had a three-week head start compared to EU because it gave emergency authorisation rather than waiting to do a conditional authorisation.

For instance Denmark, has in 2 weeks vaccinated almost as much as UK in 5 weeks.

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Remember the UK had a three-week head start compared to EU because it gave emergency authorisation rather than waiting to do a conditional authorisation.

 

Jack......I guess it turns out that you were right in advocating the UK leave the EU. They were free to start vaccinating without EU approval.

I hope all those Pro-Europeans like Wayne M owe you the apology you so richly deserve.

Oh Wait! Hang on!

 

Sorry forget what I wrote above....got you both confused. Hard to remember who stands for what when you are yelling at each other. Carry on with normal programming.

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1 hour ago, IPLore said:

.....the UK leave the EU. They were free to start vaccinating without EU approval.

I hope all those Pro-Europeans like Wayne M owe you the apology you so richly deserve.

Oh Wait! Hang on!

The UK successfully going it alone outside the EU?

Their mortality numbers doesn't suggest that. Higher rate than the EU27 and all/most of the 27 individually. Even higher rate than the US.

People like that Wayne Eurosceptic owe an apology to the families of the UK deceased. This Saturday excess deaths will hit the 100k mark. Official already through the 80k mark.

Going it alone outside the EU??

However that didn't include the UK using EU organised and paid for repatriation flights in March/April for UK citizens stuck overseas, even though UK not a EU member. 

However it did include the UK knocking back the EU offer to join their PPE/Med Equipment supply program in February even though not a member.

Maybe UK selling PPE to China in February had something to do with that?

Sorry your point has slipped my mind?

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16 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

The UK successfully going it alone outside the EU?

 

:rolleyes:  Jest kidding. 

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From a purely scientific perspective, it is interesting to see evolution happening in real time.

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18 hours ago, The Q said:

Oh I see a number of Gorillas have tested positive for covid in San Diego Zoo,, They say that it's the first time transmission of Covid has gone human - Primate..

But I thought we already knew that..  it crossed quite easily to an orange baboon..

Fuck if creatures without opposing thumbs can catch it I am staying out of PA.

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Touching wood as I type this but there does seem to be a relationship between low transmission rates and a hot climate. There are many reasons for our relative success here in the island of Oz, but I am sure our climate is one. Our worst outbreak was in the Victorian winter and we have just had a women catching trains and going shopping for 4 days with the UK Zombie apocalypse strain, yet (touching wood again) no community transfer outside of her bedroom. Tassie is the outlier here with a winter climate like the Siberian steps but they have used their moat very well and are natural social distancers. There is only a couple of hundred of them on the whole rock and they are all related.

Relatively low transmissions in many middle eastern countries. Sure Brasil and India copped it but they both have hundreds of millions living in shanty towns cheek by jowl and truly shithouse healthcare systems. 

 

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28 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

Touching wood as I type this but there does seem to be a relationship between low transmission rates and a hot climate. There are many reasons for our relative success here in the island of Oz, but I am sure our climate is one. Our worst outbreak was in the Victorian winter and we have just had a women catching trains and going shopping for 4 days with the UK Zombie apocalypse strain, yet (touching wood again) no community transfer outside of her bedroom. Tassie is the outlier here with a winter climate like the Siberian steps but they have used their moat very well and are natural social distancers. There is only a couple of hundred of them on the whole rock and they are all related.

Relatively low transmissions in many middle eastern countries. Sure Brasil and India copped it but they both have hundreds of millions living in shanty towns cheek by jowl and truly shithouse healthcare systems. 

 

That is what we hoped but unfortunately Florida proved us wrong last Summer. I think Aussie has a combination of warm weather + more determined approach. The US doesnt like to stop making money for more than 4 or 5 weeks so we loosened up.

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18 minutes ago, IPLore said:

That is what we hoped but unfortunately Florida proved us wrong last Summer. I think Aussie has a combination of warm weather + more determined approach. The US doesnt like to stop making money for more than 4 or 5 weeks so we loosened up.

Warm weather but a population that includes huge numbers that believe everything that stupid orange cunt said about the virus. The US's and Florida's current woes (the worst position of any country on earth by far)  comes down to appalling leadership and widespread ignorance and stupidity. BTW, we took the pain early here in QLD (locked down for nearly 3 months) ,eliminated the virus internally and most sectors of the economy are doing just fine. We have never even had to wear a mask until last weekend when we had a 3 day lockdown here in Brisvegas because of ONE case. I repeat ONE case.

Probably a bit of an overreaction (certainly the mandatory wearing of masks alone in our cars was just plain stupid) but most of us understand the fortunate position we are in, so in for a penny, in for a pound.

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2 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

Warm weather but a population that includes huge numbers that believe everything that stupid orange cunt said about the virus. The US's and Florida's current woes (the worst position of any country on earth by far)  comes down to appalling leadership and widespread ignorance and stupidity. BTW, we took the pain early here in QLD (locked down for nearly 3 months) ,eliminated the virus internally and most sectors of the economy are doing just fine. We just had a 3 day lockdown here in Brisvegas because of ONE case. I repeat ONE case. Probably a bit of an overreaction (certainly the mandatory wearing of masks alone in our cars was just plain stupid) but most of us understand the fortunate position we are in, so in for a penny, in for a pound.

Go easy on the ignorance piece. The US has some of the smartest public health professionals on the planet and they were early to anticipate that there was a problem in China

The essential difference was leadership. I am increasingly convinced that this was not a party political issue but personality flaws in the person we chose for our chief executive.  I dont think he has grasped what has happened even now.

We also had a problem that our states did not have a coordinated response. But I think that inspiring leadership would have overcome that.

Feel free to blame me. I voted for him in 2016. I have traditionally been a Republican voter. He did a terrible job and I voted to chuck him out in November.  He obviously did not believe I had voted the way I did because he has been challenging our result right up until last week. My instincts were only confirmed by what happened last Wednesday. 

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8 minutes ago, IPLore said:

Go easy on the ignorance piece. The US has some of the smartest public health professionals on the planet and they were early to anticipate that there was a problem in China

The essential difference was leadership. I am increasingly convinced that this was not a party political issue but personality flaws in the person we chose for our chief executive.  I dont think he has grasped what has happened even now.

We also had a problem that our states did not have a coordinated response. But I think that inspiring leadership would have overcome that.

Feel free to blame me. I voted for him in 2016. I have traditionally been a Republican voter. He did a terrible job and I voted to chuck him out in November.  He obviously did not believe I had voted the way I did because he has been challenging our result right up until last week. My instincts were only confirmed by what happened last Wednesday. 

I agree that you have some wonderful health experts, Dr Fauci has my utmost respect, not the least for this fantastic reaction to one of Shitheads ridiculous statements...

CA34618F-974E-4993-862C-2D27F1CC886D.gif

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6 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

I agree that you have some wonderful health experts, Dr Fauci has my utmost respect, not the least for this fantastic reaction to one of Shitheads ridiculous statements...

CA34618F-974E-4993-862C-2D27F1CC886D.gif

I think you should do a fact and background check on Dr Fauci.  An unbiased look may give you a different opinion.

The roast given to him by Professor Kary Mullis on YouTube makes you wonder.  Mullis won the Nobel Prize for the invention of the PCR test.  To paraphrase him - "Fauci knows sweet fuck all".  That was some years before 2020 as Mullis died mid 2019.

 

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17 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

I think you should do a fact and background check on Dr Fauci.  An unbiased look may give you a different opinion.

The roast given to him by Professor Kary Mullis on YouTube makes you wonder.  Mullis won the Nobel Prize for the invention of the PCR test.  To paraphrase him - "Fauci knows sweet fuck all".  That was some years before 2020 as Mullis died mid 2019.

 

Of course I will. There is no more reliable form of research than watching a video on Youtube. You can find one that will justify just about any lunatic theory.

For Gods sake, there is probably even one that offers the opinion that you are not a complete fuckwit.

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4 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

Of course I will. There is no more reliable form of research than watching a video on Youtube. You can find one that will justify just about any lunatic theory.

It is a video of Mullis, Nobel Prize winner, inventor of the PCR test.  He says the test wasn't invented for the way Fauci and the CDC use it.  

He also says if you do enough replication cycles you could probably discover that most individuals had every possible virus known.  The point being that because you discover a virus molecule in someone it doesn't mean they have the associated disease let alone are infectious.

Which is the difficulty continuing with PCR testing at high replication cycles AFTER vaccination.  Vaccination doesn't stop you having Covid-19 molecules in your body it just assists your body from getting ill from it.  There are examples of true "super spreaders" who are not ill and have been vaccinated for a virus but are still infectious.

 

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7 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

It is a video of Mullis, Nobel Prize winner, inventor of the PCR test.  He says the test wasn't invented for the way Fauci and the CDC use it.  

He also says if you do enough replication cycles you could probably discover that most individuals had every possible virus known.  The point being that because you discover a virus molecule in someone it doesn't mean they have the associated disease let alone are infectious.

Which is the difficulty continuing with PCR testing at high replication cycles AFTER vaccination.  Vaccination doesn't stop you having Covid-19 molecules in your body it just assists your body from getting ill from it.  There are examples of true "super spreaders" who are not ill and have been vaccinated for a virus but are still infectious.

 

Why is it that whenever you laugh at a conspiracy theorist about some 'proof' they want to share with you it just encourages them. There is a bit more to research than sitting on the toilet scrolling through your phone trying to find something that you agree with. BTW Yasser Arafat, a terrorist, won the Nobel peace prize and other nominees have included George Bush the stupid, Shitstain himself and a 16 year sweedish social media influencer. Mullis no doubt was just pissed off she never got the job. No one does hate and politics like academics. Can't you find anything good on facebook to back up your argument?

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As usual Kate demonstrates herself to be clueless. Yes, Kary Mullis won a Nobel Prize for inventing PCR, and I thank him for it as I used it almost every day since 1989. BUT, it turns out that he was a complete nutcase, completely ostracized from the scientific community with absolutely no credibility. Amongst other things he claimed that HIV does not cause AIDS, and once he started interspersing pictures of naked women into his talks, he quickly became rather unpopular on the scientific speaking circuits. I am a South African and could never forgive him for his AIDS denialism that fed the refusal of President Thabo Mbeki to introduce anti-retroviral drugs to our country, resulting in hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths and the resultant millions of orphans. He can only be described as scum.

From Wikipedia:

A New York Times article listed Mullis as one of several scientists who, after success in their area of research, go on to make unfounded, sometimes bizarre statements in other areas.[41] In his 1998 humorous autobiography proclaiming his maverick viewpoint, Mullis expressed disagreement with the scientific evidence supporting climate change and ozone depletion, the evidence that HIV causes AIDS, and asserted his belief in astrology.[18] [42] Mullis claimed climate change and HIV/AIDS theories were promulgated by a Racketeering of environmentalists, government agencies, and scientists attempting to preserve their careers and earn money, rather than scientific evidence.[18] The medical and scientific consensus considers these hypotheses as pseudoscience[citation needed], HIV having been conclusively proven to be the cause of AIDS[43][44] and global warming strongly shown to be caused by human activities.[45][46][47]

Mullis wrote that he began to question the AIDS consensus while writing a NIH grant progress report and being unable to find a peer-reviewed reference that HIV was the cause of AIDS.[18][48] He published an alternative theory of AIDS in 1994,[49] and questioned the scientific validity of the link between HIV and AIDS, leading some to label him an "AIDS denialist."[50][51] Mullis has been criticized for his association with HIV skeptic Peter Duesberg,[52] claiming that AIDS is an arbitrary diagnosis used when HIV antibodies are found in a patient's blood.[53] In 2006, Mullis wrote the foreword to the book What If Everything You Thought You Knew About AIDS Was Wrong? by Christine Maggiore,[48] an HIV-positive AIDS denialist whose 3-year-old daughter died of AIDS-related pneumonia in 2005, and herself died of an AIDS-related illness in 2008.[54] According to journalist Coby McDonald, Mullis' HIV skepticism influenced Thabo Mbeki's denialist policymaking throughout his tenure as president of South Africa from 1999 to 2008, contributing to as many as 330,000 unnecessary deaths.[55] An article in the Skeptical Inquirer described Mullis as an "AIDS denialist with scientific credentials [who] has never done any scientific research on HIV or AIDS."[56] However, he consulted for Specialty Labs, in Santa Monica, developing a nucleic acid based HIV test. Seth Kalichman, AIDS researcher and author of Denying AIDS, "[admits] that it seems odd to include a Nobel laureate among the who's who of AIDS pseudoscientists".[57] In 2010, Mullis gave a talk at Google at which he was asked about his controversial views on AIDS and HIV. Mullis said "I'm come to the conclusion... that the thing that causes AIDS is not a species of the retroviridae, it's the whole genus."[58]

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2 hours ago, LB 15 said:

Mullis no doubt was just pissed off she never got the job

Mullis was a male - still was until he died.

Bob Dylan got his Nobel Prize for literature.

He got the Nobel Prize for:

Kary B. Mullis

Facts

 

image.gif.aed6e1e2c68b9a6f66010273f525b55b.gif

Photo from the Nobel Foundation archive.

Kary B. Mullis
The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1993

Born: 28 December 1944, Lenoir, NC, USA

Died: 7 August 2019, Newport Beach, CA, USA

Affiliation at the time of the award: , La Jolla, CA, USA

Prize motivation: "for his invention of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method."

Prize share: 1/2

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1 hour ago, TheDragon said:

HIV having been conclusively proven to be the cause of AIDS

Aside from your key sources being the New York Times and Wikipedia.....

AIDS is an acronym for Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome.  HIV MAY lead to AIDS (it doesn't always) however as has been proven subsequently since the label AIDS was created there are many other causes of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome.  Which is what Mullis postulated.

 

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4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

The roast given to him by Professor Kary Mullis on YouTube makes you wonder.  Mullis won the Nobel Prize for the invention of the PCR test.  To paraphrase him - "Fauci knows sweet fuck all".  That was some years before 2020 as Mullis died mid 2019.

So one day Professor Kary Mullis let the POTUS daughter/second wife in to his lab to make some 'nipple cream lite" to add to her signature cosmetic range..... unfortunately an ingredient what she read as BIT was BAT ....the cover up to the source of Convid didn't stop with her dad having Mullis bumped off. He then got the CIA to dump a load of her nipple cream in a Wuhan market at a mark down price.

Not long ago that would be treated as the hypothesis of a unstable drunk.

images - 2021-01-13T174336.061.jpeg

images - 2021-01-13T174151.302.jpeg

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Today ABC - Is the UK strain really 70 per cent more transmissible?

ANSWER

YES more infectious more 'match fit' strain. Probably become a dominant strain still one of many.

NO and it shouldn't be expressed as a % like that. It should be referred to in scientific terms being its 'reproduction' or Ro rate and that R rate still isn't settled.

Dr Norman Swan Bio. - ABC interviewer

Dr Edward Holmes Bio - Virologist. Guest.

In short 70% is being 'weaponised' rightly or wrongly by politicians to justify any quick/hard Convid response decisions.

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Might want to read this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01

My frustration, apart from the dissembling by various folks here, is that this variant is easily detected by PCR, by simply making one of the primers for one of the PCR amplicons span the 6bp deletion that is one of at least 17 mutations in its genome. This was how a retrospective study in the UK was possible because by chance their PCR tests do use such a primer for one of the amplicons, so they could go back and see thousands of people who had the variant by looking for those without this amplicon coming up, but the other two amplicons their test employs coming up. This is the real data that shows the variant is transmitted far more readily, but does not cause more serious illness or deaths, and that it does not escape our immune response to the original strain.

BUT, why doesn't every country immediately change their PCR regimens to include such a PCR amplicon so we can readily survey this variant, instead of depending on far more expensive and far less available genomic sequencing, which is better employed as surveillance?

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1 hour ago, TheDragon said:

Might want to read this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01

My frustration, apart from the dissembling by various folks here, is that this variant is easily detected by PCR, by simply making one of the primers for one of the PCR amplicons span the 6bp deletion that is one of at least 17 mutations in its genome. This was how a retrospective study in the UK was possible because by chance their PCR tests do use such a primer for one of the amplicons, so they could go back and see thousands of people who had the variant by looking for those without this amplicon coming up, but the other two amplicons their test employs coming up. This is the real data that shows the variant is transmitted far more readily, but does not cause more serious illness or deaths, and that it does not escape our immune response to the original strain.

BUT, why doesn't every country immediately change their PCR regimens to include such a PCR amplicon so we can readily survey this variant, instead of depending on far more expensive and far less available genomic sequencing, which is better employed as surveillance?

I'm not sure a Wikipedia quote is a authoritative source but the PCR test is not designed to indicate if someone is infectious nor if a particular variant is present.  The latter can only be determined by sampling and genomic sequencing.

You highlight however one of the biggest criticisms of the PCR test and that is the composition of the primer used.  That selection is problematic and can lead to a large numbers of false positives.  

The PCR test was only designed to be an indicator of the presence of vital molecules not to drive clinical decision making.

The 501Y.V1  variant that was tagged with being the cause of the UK surge has had some of its genomic samples reclassified.  Hence the sudden emegence of the 501Y.V2 from South Africa variant as being the cause.  

The UK Government narrative (spin machine?) has shifted in the last 24 hours with the PHE pushing a narrative based on a non-peer-reviewed study that purports to show that immunity doesn't last AND that the vaccines may not be effective on the "new" South African and Brazilian variants.  The SA one has been circulating since June!

Note the study is monitoring health workers who have been infected with Covid-19.  Out of 2,700 only 44 have POSSIBLY be reinfected.  Yet PHE and no doubt NERVATAG will start pushing this.  The fact is those same organisations said the 501Y.V1 was "70% more infectious" and now the data is starting to show that that statement is not supported by the evidence.

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All bullshit, as usual you miserable troll

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This series of tweets is captivating and frightening.

It is the best 'plain and short english' summary regarding the mutations.

It also puts the idea to rest, that these are just some among many.

They may rather only be the first.

Quote:

There had been little evolution in the RBD until ~Oct 2020 when we saw RBD mutations start to spread. Perhaps chief among mutations of interest are E484K and N501Y which mutate nearby sites in the RBD.

Have a look at how quickly the two variants displace a significant portion of the 'old' variants.

ErtbEnhUwAAdBcL?format=jpg&name=4096x409

The variants in the UK, South Africa and Brazil all mutate significantly faster than the average, here is the UK:

ErtbMfCUYAMQrMW?format=jpg&name=large

Bedford has a noteworthy idea as to the origin of these mutations. He notes the speculative nature himself, but says:

My (highly speculative!) hypothesis is that the emergence of these variant viruses arises in cases of chronic infection during which the immune system places great pressure on the virus to escape immunity and the virus does so by getting really good at getting into cells.

So per this hypothesis, when the virus reaches someone whose immune systeme already puts a lot of stress on the virus 'on entry' because of a pre-existing chronic disease, mutations that overcome this pressure by being very effective to penetrate cells would at some point dominate. He cites a number of studies where this phenomenon has been researched and partly proven in the past.

He leaves a very chilling thouht for the end of his 19 tweets:

Again, this hypothesis is highly speculative at this point, but separately, the fact that we've observed 3 variants of concern emerge since September suggests that there are likely more to come.

 

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2 hours ago, Matagi said:

Again, this hypothesis is highly speculative at this point, but separately, the fact that we've observed 3 variants of concern emerge since September suggests that there are likely more to come.

I think that comment about sums up the accuracy of this "scientist".  The 501Y.V2 variant was first identified in June although there has since been some reclassification.  501Y.V3 is now being used to describe the Brazil originating variant.  THE FACT IS IT IS NORMAL EVOLUTIONARY BEHAVIOUR - NOTHING TO GET ALARMED ABOUT.  

You can fact check for yourself on the website https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global  I posted this information and links some days ago.  The fact is that this is "normal" viral evolution behaviour.  

The 501Y.Vx nomenclature is a product of the classification system not the origins of the variants.  You can see below that each of the 501Y.Vx variants develop from different root branches 20J, 20I and 20H.  Further if you visit the nextstrain website frequently as I do you will notice that lots of reclassification occurs.  For example a number of 501Y.V1 samples were reclassified in 24 hours to 501Y.V2.  I took screen shots of V1 (UK) for a different reason (to highlight that it was no different than other earlier variants in terms of growth rate) and then 24 hours later noticed the change.

Now the data is also skewed by the fact that many countries are not doing comprehensive genomic sequencing although that is now changing.  So the data is skewed by countries that do the most sequencing e.g. the UK.  As other countries join the science we see the composition of the graph below change.

 

image.thumb.png.740d7d91ac753b862fe4b0130744220b.png

Bedford is also being selective with the selection of his axes.

image.thumb.png.f68580caf22bd44cfdc55ab8529fd568.png

 

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Now that's someone who knows what he is talking about. The hypothesis that novel highly mutated strains like the UK variant are the result of a chronic infection that allows multiple mutations to accumulate within one individual and then spread is interesting. Certainly hard to see why the necessary intermediate strains were not detected in the UK genomic sequencing.

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Not a 'scientist', a scientist.

He co-developped Nextstrain.

Trevor Bedford's vita:

I'm an Associate Member at the Fred Hutch in the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division and the Computational Biology Program. I'm also an Affiliate Associate Professor in the Department of Genome Sciences and the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Washington.

My research program focuses on phylodynamic analysis of pathogen sequence data with an intent of making inferences that are actionable to public health. This research program spans a number of viral systems including seasonal and avian influenza, Ebola, Zika, SIV, MERS-CoV, dengue and mumps. This requires development of mathematical and statistical methods to integrate infectious disease sequence data into evolutionary and epidemiological models. I've co-developed the open-source Nextstrain platform that aims to harness the scientific and public health potential of pathogen genome data by providing a continually-updated view of publicly available data alongside powerful analytic and visualization tools. This platform is used by the World Health Organization Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) to aid in vaccine strain selection for seasonal influenza virus. This platform was also highlighted during the Zika epidemic in the Americas and the Ebola epidemic in West Africa as a central source for data sharing and up-to-date insights. I have published over 60 scientific journal articles and my awards include a MIRA R35 investigator award from NIGMS, a Pew Biomedical Scholar Award and the NIH / HHMI / Wellcome Trust Open Science Prize.

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45 minutes ago, Matagi said:

He co-developped Nextstrain.

Which given the way he has used it in his tweets is surprising.  As any numpty can use the site and show where his tweets have become dated.

It is useful to depict the evolution of viral strains but like any system it is reliant on good data.  That data is provided by many different organisations and often not peer reviewed.

I know Matagi you are big on peer reviews.

Hence the changing "picture" from literally one day to the next.  At the end of the day it is a classification system (there are alternatives) designed to depict information other than what it is being used for now.

Certainly it was NOT designed to determine the differences in infection rate between one variant and another.

What it does clearly show is that Covid-19 is behaving normally.  

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Still very interesting info from you more knowledgable Ladies and Gentlemen between the various threads here!

Thank you and keep it coming!

 

 

The known shitposters like lately KsfB or BE, not so much. (Are you cunts aware that there are max. 5 users left who don't have you idiots listed on ignorge? And that the people still answering you do it to slap down your misinformation bullshit? That your many "oh so smart I'm-gonna-win-the-internet-today-mom!" posts are useless, pointless, sometimes dangerous and mostly unread? Hm, cunts? Go find something else, less harmful, like fly fishing.)

 

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37 minutes ago, Grog said:

The known shitposters like lately KsfB or BE, not so much. (Are you cunts aware that there are max. 5 users left who don't have you idiots listed on ignorge? And that the people still answering you do it to slap down your misinformation bullshit? That your many "oh so smart I'm-gonna-win-the-internet-today-mom!" posts are useless, pointless, sometimes dangerous and mostly unread? Hm, cunts? Go find something else, less harmful, like fly fishing.)

Another intelligent post from Grog.  If you want to hear one side of the debate.  The one that preaches doom, gloom and hysteria then do so.

However there are many many rational top scientists that haven't abandoned the principles of neutrality and non biased evidence based research.

I look forward to the day of reckoning as opposed to being afraid of it.

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Also relevant here, by extension...

The CDC fears the UK variant will become dominant in the US by March if countermeasures not taken, writes WSJ.

 

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"the day of reckoning??" Are you one of the idiots at the Capitol Jan 6. Absolute bullshit bozo.

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23 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

"the day of reckoning??" Are you one of the idiots at the Capitol Jan 6. Absolute bullshit bozo.

Not at all.  But eventually true evidence based research will prevail.

I'm picking it will show that the decades of pandemic management research done before Covid,  and upon which a consensus was reached, will be closer to the truth than zillions of papers pumped out in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic.

That realisation will occur rapidly and public opinion will move rapidly.  As it should because public policy should be driven by good science.

It surprises me how quickly some scientists have abandoned all those years of research.  However there are still many that have held firm and acted ethically.

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9 hours ago, Grog said:

Thank you and keep it coming!

The known shitposters like lately KsfB or BE, not so much.

Grog for the record not "lately", these two have been shitposting hard since the Covid beginning.

- BE has already been given a short SA holiday.

- KsfB is a sock (out of his sock draw Sept)  hours after his master got a permanent PA holiday.

PornHub have probably already banned them.

They travel wide to shitpost, going in every Covid doorway, even national ones they are NOT nationals of, to spread their bullshit narrative, just like religious fringe dwellers with a TV channel.

KsfB is now in China and Taiwan, both with great Covid stats, but largely because they are authoritive regiemes, not western so hardly adaptable. Nth Korea with no cases and no deaths will be his next port of entry.

KsfB stalks and down-votes those critics who invest the time to demolish his bullshit shit with hard evidence.

IMG_20210107_115350.jpg.da356752e035082f9979d8546d4b70ea.jpg

His name is is even a play on words of a critic to confuse readers.

The power of the 'word of mouth' is too strong to let these cunts go unchallenged.

KsfB motivation???.....the cunt is safely holed up in NZ, where the NZ governments hard lock down 'elimination' strategy did his head or wallet in, maybe both.

He is a fan of leaders who have used the Brit strain for political advantage, that is why here is here. No greater fan exists of UK Johnson's fuckups than KsfB. 

A PM who has made a complete meal of Covid, encumbered with indecision in a crisis that demands quick decisions and who refuses to take personal responsibility.

For anyone who has 3 minutes this segment on this Brit strain and Johnson's education response is fucking eye-watering.

"The Last Man Standing"

 

I have just dealt with KsfB's bullshit yet again elsewhere, it's a daily ritual. His MO ignore and keep preaching.

You guys do a great job nailing him here. Thanks for your good reads.

IMG_20210116_114321.thumb.jpg.fa56001718fe43336d394c639dd8b19d.jpgIMG_20210116_114416.thumb.jpg.ad914403cc680b5cd2c0e71c06853e8b.jpgIMG_20210116_114531.thumb.jpg.bf160c8058409f4f723b4320941ad4e5.jpg

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^^^^^^ My side, pleasure as always. Your side kills people.

8 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

If you want to hear one side of the debate.

 

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Good news is: some countries in Europe get serious about sequencing.

Nextstrain shows that 29% of all available datasets (701 of 2467) have been submitted in the last seven days, while the other ca. 70% stem from all the year before that. Some countries seem to have abandoned sequencing in the mean time altogether.

Bad news are:

a) denominator still waaaay to small to show a clear picture.

And b) what we see, and what those who make decisions see is not good either. Nextstrain shows the 'UK variant' being dominant in the sequenced samples. Of course, highly skewed numbers as the UK probably counts for a large proportion of the sequenced samples. Yet Spain, Portugal and Ireland showing a picture that is coherent with what we see in the UK.

I think we will shortly see much tighter border restrictions. Esp. Travel between UK/Northern Ireland and Ireland (Currently EXEMPT from restrictions, a madness...) and Ireland to rest of EU (France esp.) already eyed by German government, reportedly discussing border closure to France.

uk3.thumb.png.b64a69aba303379de42bf8c5ecdc0154.pnguk2.thumb.png.9f6dddb077f4e54a509dadbac8f1a967.pnguk1.jpg.1cebb7a33963bbff02c79de7d95d73d1.jpg

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Austrian media reports that out of 83 samples, 14 samples (17%) are believed to be mutant variants, following an initial PCR test from University of Vienna.

Proper sequencing will follow to verify.  

Other positive tests with the new variant were found in other parts of Austria over the last days.

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Oh, btw, this happened in Vienna this afternoon:

1.bild.jpg

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Note this sharp rise in mutation cases in Denmark, report from Reuters.

Excerpt:

"Between mid-November and Jan. 10, 256 Danes were infected with the new variant from Britain, the State Serum Institute (SSI) said in a report published on Saturday.

That corresponded to 1.3% of all positive tests genetically analysed during that period.

In the first week of January, the percentage share of positive tests with the mutation was 3.6%, a growth rate which worried authorities and prompted the lockdown extension."

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On 1/16/2021 at 4:29 AM, Kate short for Bob said:

However there are many many rational top scientists that haven't abandoned the principles of neutrality and non biased evidence based research.

Science has no bias.

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Science doesn't.

Scientists do.

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US now estimating UK variant will be dominant by March. Beyond me why we have not changed our PCR primers to easily detect its presence through regular testing instead of via sequencing.

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11 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

US now estimating UK variant will be dominant by March. Beyond me why we have not changed our PCR primers to easily detect its presence through regular testing instead of via sequencing.

Because it is irrelevant.  If you fixate on one variant by narrowing the PCR primer to detect it you increase the chances of not detecting another variant.  You can't predict which variant will dominate.  In reality they dominate for different reasons as much as genetic advantage.

Anyway why just focus on the UK variant?  Why not the South African one which has spread quicker?  Or the Brazilian one?  Or 501Y.V4 which hasn't been identified yet?

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Wow, nicely done Kate, you must either live on this thread permanently, or you are stalking me. Comment within ten minutes of my post, first time I've been here in a while. Why don't you crawl back into the backwaters of Sydney? OOPs, forgot you have an important role in figuring out what happened to AM's Patriot, carry on good man.

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1 hour ago, TheDragon said:

Wow, nicely done Kate, you must either live on this thread permanently, or you are stalking me. Comment within ten minutes of my post, first time I've been here in a while. Why don't you crawl back into the backwaters of Sydney? OOPs, forgot you have an important role in figuring out what happened to AM's Patriot, carry on good man.

Not at all Dragon.  I'm just particularly interested in the nonsense that is published in mainstream media about the "new super infectious mutant strains"!  Still waiting to see definitive research that supports that.  The reality in terms of managing the pandemic is it is irrelevant.  

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2 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Wow, nicely done Kate..you are stalking me.....Why don't you crawl back into the backwaters of Sydney?

Stalking is Kate's MO ..and NZ not Aust.

Ooops better downvote myself.

IMG_20210107_115350.jpg

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5 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Because it is irrelevant.  If you fixate on one variant by narrowing the PCR primer to detect it you increase the chances of not detecting another variant.  You can't predict which variant will dominate.  In reality they dominate for different reasons as much as genetic advantage.

Anyway why just focus on the UK variant?  Why not the South African one which has spread quicker?  Or the Brazilian one?  Or 501Y.V4 which hasn't been identified yet?

Or the Brisbane variant? One case fucked 3 million people for 3 days. 

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Good explanation why a more contagious virus is overall more deadly than... a more deadly one.

In short: it's the larger numbers a steeper exponential curve leads to.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

Or the Brisbane variant? One case fucked 3 million people for 3 days. 

LB the full story please.

That Brit variant has escaped twice in Australia, both out of Hotel Quarantine for international arrivals, both involving two states, this one twice and both in the same week. Yes LB and I both know this too.

The last escaped via a female Hotel Quarantine Cleaner and after 3 days lockdown State Contact/Trace couldn't find a trace of it, except the Cleaner escapee's husband.

The contact trace team have concluded he might have banged the wife/cleaner, but can't get any of the 2 male Q Hotel inmates with this Brit variant, to own up to banging the cleaner.

Meanwhile all 129 Q Hotel inmates, testing negative were moved to another hotel to 'reset' their 14 day quarantine. Some 30 due to finish their 14 days that day and not thinking the experience that great to warrant doing 28 days, got lawyered up.

They were let out the next day, noting quarantine is user pays $3k each.

The 3 day lockdown that found zero cases ended, but didn't end there. Still today masks mandatory in all indoor public places and doors shut on visiting aged care. This is the state that fined or could find people for not wearing a mask driving a car alone.

That is probably why only 6 deaths and < 1,300 cases (no zeros missing) in this state to date and many sectors of their economy is fucked, except mining, some retail, state internal tourism and services. However Commonwealth write the unemployment cheques etc, not the states, so who cares.

PS. State contact/trace reakon the 2 fellows who brought the Brit strain in, one or both banged the airline steward. She wasn't busy as the plane 90% empty, so she hotted up her private Instagram account. 

LB, for the sake of completeness, did I miss anything??? 

94.jpg

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42 minutes ago, Matagi said:

Good explanation why a more contagious virus is overall more deadly than... a more deadly one.

Mat would SARS (easier to contain but more deadly) and this SARS Cov-2 be a good example of that???

SARS deaths in 2003 less than 800 worldwide versus SARS Cov and some Cov-2  2 million todate largely without the latest mutants?

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:
7 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Wow, nicely done Kate..you are stalking me.....Why don't you crawl back into the backwaters of Sydney?

Stalking is Kate's MO ..and NZ not Aust.

Ooops better downvote myself.

IMG_20210107_115350.jpg.418100b8d87ce95285db11287c6e71c8.jpg

IMG_20210107_115350.jpg

Wow I got the double from Stalker Kate....hit me again you Kiwi girl.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Mat would SARS (easier to contain but more deadly) and this SARS Cov-2 be a good example of that???

SARS deaths in 2003 less than 800 worldwide versus SARS Cov and some Cov-2  2 million todate largely without the latest mutants?

The honest answer is: I have no idea.

From a numbers point of view, I would suspect that there is something like a sweet spot, an optimum, where the 'product' of deadliness and contagiousness lead to the most deaths. But it's very hard to say. Re the CDC, the 2002 SARS was deadlier and maybe more infectious. The countermeasures were much less severe than today and still no pandemic like the one we see today. 

informationisbeautiful.png

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