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Vendee Globe 2016?

Rich Wilson Great American

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#7801 stief

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Posted Today, 12:58 AM

Still puzzled by Rich Wilson's second mention of choosing a "tack gybe", if that is what he did again here https://www.google.c...972!4d-65.22686

I've always thought of that as a "chicken gybe". Whether on a sailboard, 470, 30' tri or monohull keelboat (<40'), a tack gybe was always riskier in heavier air, I thought based on experience. Apparent wind would increase nastily as I rounded up, white sails flogging, and bearing off was not easy as Nándor showed earlier. So Conrad's description of taking a deep breath, trusting to experience in timing, and just gybing regularly seemed to make more practical sense. Unlike a chicken gybe that made guests more nervous, a regular gybe in heavier air seemed to always work better, as long as I warned everyone about the boom. My wife/crew still gave me the stink-eye, though, but she had memories of our dinghy racing days. :)

 

So when is a chicken gybe best? Rich Wilson has far more experience than me (Even though a democrat, maybe he is at an age where he is becoming more conservative?)



#7802 RKoch

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Posted Today, 01:13 AM

Still puzzled by Rich Wilson's second mention of choosing a "tack gybe", if that is what he did again here https://www.google.c...972!4d-65.22686
I've always thought of that as a "chicken gybe". Whether on a sailboard, 470, 30' tri or monohull keelboat (<40'), a tack gybe was always riskier in heavier air, I thought based on experience. Apparent wind would increase nastily as I rounded up, white sails flogging, and bearing off was not easy as Nándor showed earlier. So Conrad's description of taking a deep breath, trusting to experience in timing, and just gybing regularly seemed to make more practical sense. Unlike a chicken gybe that made guests more nervous, a regular gybe in heavier air seemed to always work better, as long as I warned everyone about the boom. My wife/crew still gave me the stink-eye, though, but she had memories of our dinghy racing days. :)
 
So when is a chicken gybe best? Rich Wilson has far more experience than me (Even though a democrat, maybe he is at an age where he is becoming more conservative?)

no permanent backstay. Chicken jibe appropriate if concerned about getting runners on promptly in a regular jibe. Possibly steering, AP , or keel-canting issues might warrant a chicken jibe.

#7803 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 01:18 AM

Trusting your auto pilot to gybe through arse to the wind while you do other shit is quicker and arguably easier than doing a bow to granny in a nasty sea state.

#7804 Varan

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Posted Today, 01:22 AM

ALC now with better VMG than AT, but poor rooster, he's losing big at the moment.

 
Well, Beyou has had a great run up--better than A&A had before yesterday. Even now, he's got a nice lane and looking good. When the leaders are pushing 24 hr records, yeah, that doesn't help.
Jeremie just doesn't seem to have the same top gear as ALC and AT. Still, what an amazing race he has had.

#7805 Varan

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Posted Today, 01:31 AM

Thanks, especially for the pics (yours, I assume). Don't think I'll go there: too cold and wild :)

Yes mine... and yes best avoided; reckon I've grown out of that cold wet phase of life now ;)
Not enough snow for me :)

#7806 bucc5062

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Posted Today, 02:01 AM

In 16 hours tracker would have Armel tacking, 18 for AT which gives a 38 mile DTL.  I'm not buying the computer.  I think AT can use his foil and harder up over time and narrow the gap.  He needs to put 10 miles east in the bank and use that foil as long as he can.  Inside 20 miles I bet he has a chance.  

Even with the model, after a tack he's 38+- miles behind with @ 250 miles or so to go with winds above 15.  



#7807 gregw

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Posted Today, 02:38 AM

Just saying again that it sucks to be in the eastern hemisphere so we get the 7 hour blackout when everybody is tucked up in bed dreaming of being solo ocean racers!

 

Next edition (and volvo) can they please have constant updates, but inject a 4 hour delay.  That would give it a real time feel and actually be fairer as competitors would never know the exact current position of each other unless in AIS range. 



#7808 DtM

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Posted Today, 02:42 AM

Waiting and waiting for the next update.

 

Go Alex



#7809 Scarecrow

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Posted Today, 03:09 AM

Just saying again that it sucks to be in the eastern hemisphere so we get the 7 hour blackout when everybody is tucked up in bed dreaming of being solo ocean racers!
 
Next edition (and volvo) can they please have constant updates, but inject a 4 hour delay.  That would give it a real time feel and actually be fairer as competitors would never know the exact current position of each other unless in AIS range.


History has shown the volvo boats will spend 90+% of their time in AIS range so there is no good reason not to give the public very regular updates without delay.

#7810 Renee

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Posted Today, 03:30 AM

https://www.windfinder.com/

 

good for observation reports/forecasts. search port olona and zoom in. green markers give reports. the blue markers, forecasts. Mainly shore-based; a few a little further out. webcam links, too.



#7811 Renee

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Posted Today, 03:32 AM

And what a race!!!



#7812 Renee

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Posted Today, 03:50 AM

Music while we wait... :)

 



#7813 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 04:08 AM

Alex's DTL has now got a 3 in front of it...Looks as though he has hit a light patch and been forced to go higher and leave the outside lane open to Armel who is moving along nicely.

#7814 BrickTopHarry

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Posted Today, 04:11 AM

Alex's DTL has now got a 3 in front of it...Looks as though he has hit a light patch and been forced to go higher and leave the outside lane open to Armel who is moving along nicely.

 

Yeah.. unfortunately Armel's DTF also now has a 3 in front of it.  Incredible finish.

 

I can imagine Alex talking to Hugo Boss when her steering has a wobble or rattle to it at the higher speeds, telling her to hold together like Han Solo talking to the Millenium Falcum.



#7815 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 04:14 AM

In 16 hours tracker would have Armel tacking, 18 for AT which gives a 38 mile DTL. ...  


Already in the DTL 30's...keep up these conservative projections Bucky...I think you might be Alex's lucky charm bracelet.

#7816 Moonduster

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Posted Today, 04:14 AM

Hey, ateam ...

So your guy has a 50% chance from fifty miles back. That's cool.

Does that mean he'd have a 50% chance if he were 50 miles ahead?

I'm just kinda curious ...

#7817 gregw

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Posted Today, 04:22 AM

They are just a little North West of the Brittany weather buoy and sailflo shows the observations laid over the forecasts, which indicates all the models are matching obs: 

 

http://www.sailflow....973,6,1,28197,1

 

So we can continue to stare at the +2 by +2 projections on forss and try to pretend it is reality.

 

Edit: still a bit early to look, but the obs for the Brittany coast are all less than the models and more northerly:

 

http://www.sailflow....85,6,1,115610,1



#7818 Varan

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Posted Today, 04:23 AM

Hey, ateam ...
So your guy has a 50% chance from fifty miles back. That's cool.
Does that mean he'd have a 50% chance if he were 50 miles ahead?
I'm just kinda curious ...

Not a-team, dream team, cause y'all dreaming. DTL soon to be in the 50s as ALC cruises to victory :)


Chicken is on the move again too.

#7819 db7

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Posted Today, 04:26 AM

 

In 16 hours tracker would have Armel tacking, 18 for AT which gives a 38 mile DTL. ...  


Already in the DTL 30's...keep up these conservative projections Bucky...I think you might be Alex's lucky charm bracelet.

 

True enough!



#7820 2to1

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Posted Today, 05:02 AM

I want to give a shout out to 'mangina', well played.

 

BP, this one belongs to you.



#7821 Trickypig

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Posted Today, 05:23 AM

My prediction is that they will finish within sight of one another.



#7822 SanDiegoSteve

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Posted Today, 05:31 AM

My prediction is that they will finish within sight of one another.

 

And then I hope they have a beer together with a good toast. That would be great PR and appropriate.  At this point, both have put an exclamation point on the race!



#7823 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 05:39 AM

My prediction is that they will finish within sight of one another.


Maybe Tricky... but who will have the crinked neck and hot fingers.

#7824 Trickypig

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Posted Today, 05:52 AM

 

My prediction is that they will finish within sight of one another.


Maybe Tricky... but who will have the crinked neck and hot fingers.

 

I'm pretty sure AT will have his alarm clock turned up to high voltage too.



#7825 dangerousdave

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Posted Today, 06:13 AM

 I updated Wikipedia such that Francois Gabart's 'new record' is now the 'current record'... just in time for it to be taken away from him!

 

https://en.wikipedia...12.E2.80.932013



#7826 Kenny Dumas

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Posted Today, 06:53 AM

AT is up 10 degrees now but way slowed to 10 knots. But a good move to put pressure on ALC to tack sooner. I hope they are enjoying the moment as much as we are!

#7827 Francis Vaughan

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Posted Today, 07:04 AM

This is getting a bit nail biting. You would still have your money on ALC, but if you put a lot of money down, you might feel a tinge of worry.



#7828 dangerousdave

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Posted Today, 07:15 AM

"No AIS reception" for Hugo Boss by a french military aircraft doing a flyby:

 

 

That will be super fun as he gets closer to civilization.



#7829 Rob Zabukovec

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Posted Today, 07:16 AM

Still ALC's race to lose.
Still first to turn right (and get it right) wins.
And they will soon be in ALC's back yard......

Go Alex.....

#7830 grandsoleil

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Posted Today, 07:21 AM

From the Vendee Site:

The tracker will update hourly once the leader gets to within 100nm of the finish. More information on how to follow the finish of the Vendée Globe can be found here http://www.Vendeeglo...llow-the-finish



#7831 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 07:52 AM

"No AIS reception" for Hugo Boss by a french military aircraft doing a flyby:
 
https://www.youtube....h?v=uveRZxc-KK0
 
That will be super fun as he gets closer to civilization.


Still got radar and and emergency stern mount antenna will take minutes to sort.

#7832 ague

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Posted Today, 07:53 AM

"No AIS reception" for Hugo Boss by a french military aircraft doing a flyby:

 

 

That will be super fun as he gets closer to civilization.

 

I am not a specialist in aviation but someone might want to warn them there is a blinking red light on the plane's dashboard just at the beginning of the video  :unsure:    

 

:lol:



#7833 JuvenileD

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Posted Today, 07:57 AM

Listening to the Today programme on Radio4 in the U.K. and they do a piece on the VG. This is big deal as its the biggest talk radio breakfast show in the country. Ellen McArthur comes on to talk about how she got 2nd and sort of made the interview all about herself rather than Alex, and then when she's steered back on subject Ellen tells us that AT negated the foil damage by carrying and fitting a spare. FOR FUCKS SAKE. How dare she repeat this nonsense. If you are going to represent our sport to the masses at least have the good grace to get your facts right.

#7834 ateam

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Posted Today, 08:15 AM

Hey, ateam ...
So your guy has a 50% chance from fifty miles back. That's cool.
Does that mean he'd have a 50% chance if he were 50 miles ahead?
I'm just kinda curious ...

yes exactly that is what I think in this situation. The reason is that after tacking both boats can have almost same dtf....different twa...but almost same dtf.

#7835 rogerfal

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Posted Today, 08:27 AM

Listening to the Today programme on Radio4 in the U.K. and they do a piece on the VG. This is big deal as its the biggest talk radio breakfast show in the country. Ellen McArthur comes on to talk about how she got 2nd and sort of made the interview all about herself rather than Alex, and then when she's steered back on subject Ellen tells us that AT negated the foil damage by carrying and fitting a spare. FOR FUCKS SAKE. How dare she repeat this nonsense. If you are going to represent our sport to the masses at least have the good grace to get your facts right.

 

That's great to hear the race is on the Beeb - Someone have a word with her please!



#7836 maartenJ

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Posted Today, 08:46 AM

AT without AIS would be a good tactical move to allow tacking when no one can see you as long as you pick the right moment. Didn't the Brits always want to fool the frogs in the old days of the Empire!? something like flying the wrong flag and all manner of mischief!



#7837 Starwax

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Posted Today, 09:00 AM

I thought in that video he sounded much more strained then ALC. ALC will know exactly where Thompson is anyway because of the tracker. 

 

Really enjoyed following this edition though, plenty more stories to be told yet too! 



#7838 moody frog

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Posted Today, 09:52 AM

They are just a little North West of the Brittany weather buoy and sailflo shows the observations laid over the forecasts, which indicates all the models are matching obs: 

 

http://www.sailflow....973,6,1,28197,1

 

So we can continue to stare at the +2 by +2 projections on forss and try to pretend it is reality.

 

Edit: still a bit early to look, but the obs for the Brittany coast are all less than the models and more northerly:

 

http://www.sailflow....85,6,1,115610,1

 

Thanks for pointing to http://www.sailflow....85,6,1,115610,1.

 

Caution, these are shore stations ! When the wind is offshore (as in surfers vocabulary), which is the case in your Penmarch-La Torche example, it would be below what it is at sea because of the land effect.

 

Second remark I have checked their "stations" at the Channel entrance, with "side-on, side-off" winds (see pic) and ... surprise the north-west Britanny station showing 26 kph is 100m from home, although I hv no anemometer off hand, it looks to me a bit overinflated.  

Attached Files



#7839 Herman

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Posted Today, 10:03 AM

Weather and routing update 
 
Armel and Alex are closer to the UK than France actually atm. At the 07:00 GMT position, Armel was 120 NM from Bishop Rock (Islands of Scilly) and 176 NM from Ouessant (Brittany coast). According to the Forss / Greatcircle projections, Armel could get as close as +/- 70 miles before tacking in the afternoon. The wind will be backing in the coming hours with an average of 5 degrees per 3 hours. That will key when to do the actual tacks. Current wind GFS seems more or less OK compared to the actuals from the weather buoys and compared to the NOAA Atlantic Surface Analysis. But the lightship Seven Stones, which is between the Islands of Scilly and Land's End, is already reporting in the past hours a due east wind, way ahead of the projections. This could indicate that Armel and Alex are tacking earlier than projected now in +/- 8 hours time (around 15:00 GMT). Which is not ideal for Alex to start earlier on port tack.
 
Looking at the wind forecast tomorrow morning early hours when Armel should arrive a bit west off Ile de Sein around 02:00 GMT, he would have a let's say 145 heading -/- 90 TWD = 55 apparent wind angle. Which is more close-hauled giving an extra advantage to Armel.
 
The ETA is consistently being pushed backwards in the past days. Now Jan 19th in the afternoon (14:00 GMT / 15:00 CET) if I may believe the Forss / Greatcircle projections. But the VG will have a better ETA because the skippers are obliged to pass their own ETA's to the RC. Currently between 09:00 and 13:00 GMT. So Armel has his thrusters prepared for that final port tack.
 
Forss' tracker could pick them up via AIS when they come near Ushant / Ouessant off the Brittany coast. Their projected tracks are within 30 nm of the island. Hope that Alex got his spare AIS antenna installed before crossing the traffic coming from, and going to The Channel. It's f*cking busy there. Armel would be on AIS probably around 00:00 GMT / 01:00 CET. Or earlier, if they tack earlier.
 
In the screenshot below I have plotted an extrapolation of heading and speed for 3 hours in red, to give an idea where they are going.


#7840 moody frog

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Posted Today, 10:09 AM

 

Weather and routing update 
 
Armel and Alex are closer to the UK than France actually atm. At the 07:00 GMT position, Armel was 120 NM from Bishop Rock (Islands of Scilly) and 176 NM from Ouessant (Brittany coast). According to the Forss / Greatcircle projections, Armel could get as close as +/- 70 miles before tacking in the afternoon. The wind will be backing in the coming hours with an average of 5 degrees per 3 hours. That will key when to do the actual tacks. Current wind GFS seems more or less OK compared to the actuals from the weather buoys and compared to the NOAA Atlantic Surface Analysis. But the lightship Seven Stones, which is between the Islands of Scilly and Land's End, is already reporting in the past hours a due east wind, way ahead of the projections. This could indicate that Armel and Alex are tacking earlier than projected now in +/- 8 hours time (around 15:00 GMT). Which is not ideal for Alex to start earlier on port tack.
 
Looking at the wind forecast tomorrow morning early hours when Armel should arrive a bit west off Ile de Sein around 02:00 GMT, he would have a let's say 145 heading -/- 90 TWD = 55 apparent wind angle. Which is more close-hauled giving an extra advantage to Armel.
 
The ETA is consistently being pushed backwards in the past days. Now Jan 19th in the afternoon (14:00 GMT / 15:00 CET) if I may believe the Forss / Greatcircle projections. But the VG will have a better ETA because the skippers are obliged to pass their own ETA's to the RC. Currently between 09:00 and 13:00 GMT. So Armel has his thrusters prepared for that final port tack.
 
Forss' tracker could pick them up via AIS when they come near Ushant / Ouessant off the Brittany coast. Their projected tracks are within 30 nm of the island. Hope that Alex got his spare AIS antenna installed before crossing the traffic coming from, and going to The Channel. It's f*cking busy there. Armel would be on AIS probably around 00:00 GMT / 01:00 CET. Or earlier, if they tack earlier.
 
In the screenshot below I have plotted an extrapolation of heading and speed for 3 hours in red, to give an idea where they are going.

 

 

Awesome Herman !

 

Edit: Ushant observations today 3 AM: Wind East 17 kts, moderate sea, 1035 hPa decreasing, sky clear or slight clouds, visibility 10 to 25 miles.



#7841 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 10:15 AM

 
Weather and routing update 
 
Armel and Alex are closer to the UK than France actually atm. At the 07:00 GMT position, Armel was 120 NM from Bishop Rock (Islands of Scilly) and 176 NM from Ouessant (Brittany coast). According to the Forss / Greatcircle projections, Armel could get as close as +/- 70 miles before tacking in the afternoon. The wind will be backing in the coming hours with an average of 5 degrees per 3 hours. That will key when to do the actual tacks. Current wind GFS seems more or less OK compared to the actuals from the weather buoys and compared to the NOAA Atlantic Surface Analysis. But the lightship Seven Stones, which is between the Islands of Scilly and Land's End, is already reporting in the past hours a due east wind, way ahead of the projections. This could indicate that Armel and Alex are tacking earlier than projected now in +/- 8 hours time (around 15:00 GMT). Which is not ideal for Alex to start earlier on port tack.
 
Looking at the wind forecast tomorrow morning early hours when Armel should arrive a bit west off Ile de Sein around 02:00 GMT, he would have a let's say 145 heading -/- 90 TWD = 55 apparent wind angle. Which is more close-hauled giving an extra advantage to Armel.
 
The ETA is consistently being pushed backwards in the past days. Now Jan 19th in the afternoon (14:00 GMT / 15:00 CET) if I may believe the Forss / Greatcircle projections. But the VG will have a better ETA because the skippers are obliged to pass their own ETA's to the RC. Currently between 09:00 and 13:00 GMT. So Armel has his thrusters prepared for that final port tack.
 
Forss' tracker could pick them up via AIS when they come near Ushant / Ouessant off the Brittany coast. Their projected tracks are within 30 nm of the island. Hope that Alex got his spare AIS antenna installed before crossing the traffic coming from, and going to The Channel. It's f*cking busy there. Armel would be on AIS probably around 00:00 GMT / 01:00 CET. Or earlier, if they tack earlier.
 
In the screenshot below I have plotted an extrapolation of heading and speed for 3 hours in red, to give an idea where they are going.
 

 
Awesome Herman !
+1111

Actually really really awesome Herman...love your work son....Looks more like late afternoon Thursday in the canal which will keep the crowd happy versus them having to wait while the two boys hang outside if they get their any earlier.

#7842 popov

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Posted Today, 10:23 AM

If I may purpose a good stream for naviguessing.

Yoan Richomme (last winner of The Figaro) is twitting often with its routings.

And I have to say that he has always got good analysis (way better than D. Vittet for example).

Here is its TWitter account:   https://twitter.com/...ichomme?lang=fr

 

C2cKQEfXUAIqvaz.jpg



#7843 frers38

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Posted Today, 10:26 AM

"No AIS reception" for Hugo Boss by a french military aircraft doing a flyby:
 
https://www.youtube....h?v=uveRZxc-KK0
 
That will be super fun as he gets closer to civilization.

 
I am not a specialist in aviation but someone might want to warn them there is a blinking red light on the plane's dashboard just at the beginning of the video  :unsure:    
 
:lol:


#7844 frers38

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Posted Today, 10:28 AM

It's for when they get too close to the Perfidious Albion..,

#7845 alpha puppy

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Posted Today, 10:46 AM

It's almost time for the crucial tack towards SDO.  Latest optimal routes for the leaders using GFS/ECMWF/TideTech GRIBs has ALC tacking sometime between 12:00-15:00UTC and AT tacking sometime later between 16:00-18:00UTC.  Sadly for AT latest predictions have him finisht 6-7:30 hours adrift of ALC.  Also ran routings for the GFS/ECMWF ensemble predictions but no model has AT overhauling ALC before the finish barring some damage or other calamity to ALC which I don't wish for him given the masterful way he has sailed this race.

 

Attaching picture of route and stats showing ALC getting to his tack point at 12:00 per the ECMWF model

Attached Files



#7846 Herman

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Posted Today, 10:59 AM

It's almost time for the crucial tack towards SDO.  Latest optimal routes for the leaders using GFS/ECMWF/TideTech GRIBs has ALC tacking sometime between 12:00-15:00UTC and AT tacking sometime later between 16:00-18:00UTC.  Sadly for AT latest predictions have him finisht 6-7:30 hours adrift of ALC.  Also ran routings for the GFS/ECMWF ensemble predictions but no model has AT overhauling ALC before the finish barring some damage or other calamity to ALC which I don't wish for him the masterful way he has sailed this race.

 

Attaching picture of route and stats showing ALC getting to his tack point at 12:00 per the ECMWF model

Nice one, thanks for the confirmation that ALC will probably tack before 15:00 GMT. Did you use asymmetric polars for AT? Is that the explanation for AT losing that many hours? Or different powered-up  standard polars?



#7847 Terrafirma

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Posted Today, 11:08 AM

Take a risk Alex...........................................................................................



#7848 alpha puppy

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Posted Today, 11:10 AM

Hi Herman,

 

I made ALC 5% faster than AT while on port for the text part of the time prediction I posted.  Expedition doesn't support assymetric polars so I had to split the route into starboard/port sections and then sum up the two.  The picture I posted however is simpler with ALC being 105% faster throughout.  My other experiments just looked too messy.



#7849 ateam

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Posted Today, 11:15 AM

Tack! At should tack now...the shakal already went too far....

#7850 grandsoleil

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Posted Today, 11:17 AM

Tack! At should tack now...the shakal already went too far....

Tack now? That would be almost straight upwind...and without a daggerboard/foil? No way....



#7851 moody frog

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Posted Today, 11:22 AM

 

 

Weather and routing update 
 
Armel and Alex are closer to the UK than France actually atm. At the 07:00 GMT position, Armel was 120 NM from Bishop Rock (Islands of Scilly) and 176 NM from Ouessant (Brittany coast). According to the Forss / Greatcircle projections, Armel could get as close as +/- 70 miles before tacking in the afternoon. The wind will be backing in the coming hours with an average of 5 degrees per 3 hours. That will key when to do the actual tacks. Current wind GFS seems more or less OK compared to the actuals from the weather buoys and compared to the NOAA Atlantic Surface Analysis. But the lightship Seven Stones, which is between the Islands of Scilly and Land's End, is already reporting in the past hours a due east wind, way ahead of the projections. This could indicate that Armel and Alex are tacking earlier than projected now in +/- 8 hours time (around 15:00 GMT). Which is not ideal for Alex to start earlier on port tack.
 
Looking at the wind forecast tomorrow morning early hours when Armel should arrive a bit west off Ile de Sein around 02:00 GMT, he would have a let's say 145 heading -/- 90 TWD = 55 apparent wind angle. Which is more close-hauled giving an extra advantage to Armel.
 
The ETA is consistently being pushed backwards in the past days. Now Jan 19th in the afternoon (14:00 GMT / 15:00 CET) if I may believe the Forss / Greatcircle projections. But the VG will have a better ETA because the skippers are obliged to pass their own ETA's to the RC. Currently between 09:00 and 13:00 GMT. So Armel has his thrusters prepared for that final port tack.
 
Forss' tracker could pick them up via AIS when they come near Ushant / Ouessant off the Brittany coast. Their projected tracks are within 30 nm of the island. Hope that Alex got his spare AIS antenna installed before crossing the traffic coming from, and going to The Channel. It's f*cking busy there. Armel would be on AIS probably around 00:00 GMT / 01:00 CET. Or earlier, if they tack earlier.
 
In the screenshot below I have plotted an extrapolation of heading and speed for 3 hours in red, to give an idea where they are going.

 

 

Awesome Herman !

 

Edit: Ushant observations today 3 AM: Wind East 17 kts, moderate sea, 1035 hPa decreasing, sky clear or slight clouds, visibility 10 to 25 miles.

 

 

Ushant observations 9 AM : Wind East 21kts, 1035 hpA increasing now , rest unchanged.

 

Armel foiling ???



#7852 Nightowl

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Posted Today, 11:23 AM

During VG Life (French) the BP boat captain said that actually the "real" distance between ALC and AT is about 60nm contrary to what we can see (on media ?) !

AT on telephone: 

- "Issues with AP. not working on wind angle"

- "Think my option have run out !"

- "Haven't slept these past days due to the AP issues"

That was during the Live, so may need to listen again when it will be available for replay.

 



#7853 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 11:23 AM

Take a risk Alex...........................................................................................


Come on name one option Terra other than turn the donk on....there fuckin ain't one sinxe he had to harden up earlier today and Armel stole his buffalo girls outside line...Maybe a glimmer in about 6 hours me thinks..but that more hope than reality.

#7854 ArchimeDesign.com

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Posted Today, 11:26 AM

AT's DTL does not get under 10% of ALC's DTF...

 

DTF ALC    DTL AT    DTL/DTF
330         36.26     11%
350      40.1      11%
383      39.5      10%
435.2    42.2      10%
459.5    57.5      13%
482.5    69.2      14%
515      72.3      14%
553      74.9      14%
597      75.7      13%
699      75        11%
763      74.6      10%
812      78.1      10%
866      78.4      9%
923.4    73.3      8%
998      71.8      7%
1126     85.4      8%
1205     88.5      7%
1264     95        8%
1324     100       8%



#7855 ateam

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Posted Today, 11:26 AM

Wind will veer to ene...I dont know what u think is best twa? For Alex? After the tack. Maybe 60 degrees....? I would tack now.

Armel is going fast in the wrong direction...

#7856 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 11:28 AM

Wind will veer to ene...I dont know what u think is best twa? For Alex? After the tack. Maybe 60 degrees....? I would tack now.

Armel is going fast in the wrong direction...


Armel is going fast in the right direction.

#7857 Buck Turgidson

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Posted Today, 11:28 AM

They both better watch out for the exclusion zone. It would be a terrible way to end your race.
It's right in the way too!

#7858 Herman

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Posted Today, 11:34 AM

Some stuff I could understand from the Vendée Flash update live with audio from ALC and AT at 11:00 GMT

 

ALC:

- On devrait arriver demain en fin de journée - I should finish tomorrow at the end of the day

- the rest very hard to understand

 

AT:

- I have run out of options to catch-up Armel

- problems with the AP which I have to solve before I can sleep

- I want to sleep for a year!

 

Alex sounded very, very tired indeed imho



#7859 Herman

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Posted Today, 11:37 AM

Hi Herman,

 

I made ALC 5% faster than AT while on port for the text part of the time prediction I posted.  Expedition doesn't support assymetric polars so I had to split the route into starboard/port sections and then sum up the two.  The picture I posted however is simpler with ALC being 105% faster throughout.  My other experiments just looked too messy.

Nice workaround  :)



#7860 Moderator

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Posted Today, 11:37 AM

 

 

"No AIS reception" for Hugo Boss by a french military aircraft doing a flyby:
 

 
That will be super fun as he gets closer to civilization.

 
I am not a specialist in aviation but someone might want to warn them there is a blinking red light on the plane's dashboard just at the beginning of the video  :unsure:    
 
:lol:

 

 

It is the slats-deployed warning light. Completely normal for low and slow flight. For non aviators slats are droop extensions to leading edge of wings that permit the wing to operate at higher angle of attack and so reduce stall speed. Flaps have same effect but on trailing edge of wing, and have disadvantage of causing more drag than slats.



#7861 alibee

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Posted Today, 11:44 AM

I would tack now.

 

 

^this.

 

Tack early and hope the wind shifts in your favour (it is moving north, which would favour that strategy). He's not going to overtake by playing follow-my-leader, he's just not consistently 15% faster than ALC.



#7862 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 11:59 AM

I'm happy to wait for the next three skeds to give hope to the Man in Black fans...but at the moment failing a catastrofuck on BP, Armel has absolutely nailed the last 2 runways....poetry in motion....Alex by having to harden up earlier today to deal with a soft patch absolutely killed off his last chance of red hot finger canal glory me thinks.

#7863 ateam

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Posted Today, 12:01 PM

Attached File  Screenshot_20170118-125734.png   461.47KB   2 downloads wind is shifting now

#7864 Haji

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Posted Today, 12:06 PM

Sheesh...between work and this amazing race (and entertaining thread), I'm not getting nearly enough sleep. But I'm 100% sure that it's still far more than Alex & Armel are getting...

#7865 Herman

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Posted Today, 12:08 PM

Latest positions and fresh GRIB. Boats are 60 NM laterally separated. Armel still 90 NM off the Scillies, so not in AIS range. www.marinetraffic.com has a station there. Both ALC and AT are at the projected locations 3 hours ago. Both almost on the same heading, Armel doing 1 knot more.

 

It seems looking at the Forss / Greatcircle projections that the forecasted wind direction (both GFS and EMWCF) is indeed maybe not the reality, as both Armel and Alex should head 15 or 20 degrees more to the south now than they are actually sailing in the last schedule. Or the polars don't add up.

Attached Files



#7866 ct800

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Posted Today, 12:09 PM

Too bad for Alex: no AIS, no AP = no sleep.

No sleep = no focus.

And quite risky along La Manche and Britanny with traffic overnight.

 

He might need to tack just to remain a bit further offshore.

 

2nd is still nice.



#7867 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 12:13 PM

Herman you need to get a girlfriend after all this....but you need to ditch her in 2020 otherwise we will be angry.
.

#7868 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 12:19 PM

Too bad for Alex: no AIS, no AP = no sleep.
No sleep = no focus.
And quite risky along La Manche and Britanny with traffic overnight.
 
He might need to tack just to remain a bit further offshore.
 
2nd is still nice.

Your dribbling CT...He has AIS up now....always had radar....plus no AP/Steering cable issues in this lighter weather...and sleep is highly over rated...stop making excuses....he doesn't need them....and no one remembers who came second down the line...unless of course you have already bagged two #2's and it is now or never to get a #1.

#7869 eastcoastdude

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Posted Today, 12:27 PM

On the vendee live, Alex came across as totally shattered.  He has put so much into closing the gap I fear that he has nothing left in the tank.  I hope he just gets home safely now.  It is still a beast of a boat to navigate through a tricky area.  I don't think we can even begin to comprehend the stress that these leading 2 boats have gone through.  BP will win barring catastrophe, both sailors are heroes.  I want Alex to win, but his only way to win is a BP catastrophe - which I don't want to even contemplate.



#7870 Anemkne Tickler

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    Solo offshore

Posted Today, 12:28 PM

Alex's DTL has now got a 3 in front of it...Looks as though he has hit a light patch and been forced to go higher and leave the outside lane open to Armel who is moving along nicely.

 
Yeah.. unfortunately Armel's DTF also now has a 3 in front of it.  Incredible finish.
 
I can imagine Alex talking to Hugo Boss when her steering has a wobble or rattle to it at the higher speeds, telling her to hold together like Han Solo talking to the Millenium Falcum.

Best comment in the entire thread

#7871 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 12:30 PM

Alex's DTL has now got a 3 in front of it...Looks as though he has hit a light patch and been forced to go higher and leave the outside lane open to Armel who is moving along nicely.

 
Yeah.. unfortunately Armel's DTF also now has a 3 in front of it.  Incredible finish.
 
I can imagine Alex talking to Hugo Boss when her steering has a wobble or rattle to it at the higher speeds, telling her to hold together like Han Solo talking to the Millenium Falcum.
Best comment in the entire thread

You need to get out more.

#7872 Herman

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Posted Today, 12:31 PM

Herman you need to get a girlfriend after all this....but you need to ditch her in 2020 otherwise we will be angry.
.

I will tell my wife  :D



#7873 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 12:39 PM

Herman you need to get a girlfriend after all this....but you need to ditch her in 2020 otherwise we will be angry.
.

I will tell my wife  :D

Clearly your missus is very forebearing Herman....BTW does she have an unattached sister?

#7874 jonas a

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Posted Today, 12:53 PM

http://sailuniverse....ed-since-2007/

evolution of an imoca 60



#7875 Pierre S

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Posted Today, 01:01 PM

It's now looking to be an incredibly tight finish between JPD and YE/JLC.



#7876 Grommit

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Posted Today, 01:11 PM

 

Tides becoming important now ...

......and local knowledge, of which ALC will have plenty. He's a top Figaro sailor, of course, and the waters off West and South Brittany are his training grounds.

They'll both have to avoid the Off Ouessant TSS complex, and I'm wondering if one of them will make a dive through the Passage de Fromveur or down the Chenal de La Helle..... Such would make a spectacular 'last-lap' ending to a spectacular race - and give their sponsors much-enhanced TV coverage.
 


#7877 popov

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Posted Today, 01:13 PM

http://sailuniverse....ed-since-2007/

evolution of an imoca 60

Stunning!

 

Imoca-comparison-768x530.png



#7878 Varan

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Posted Today, 01:18 PM

"No AIS reception" for Hugo Boss by a french military aircraft doing a flyby:
 
https://www.youtube....h?v=uveRZxc-KK0
 
That will be super fun as he gets closer to civilization.

 
I am not a specialist in aviation but someone might want to warn them there is a blinking red light on the plane's dashboard just at the beginning of the video  :unsure:    
 
:lol:
Missle lock to ensure a victory for France.

#7879 Your Mom

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Posted Today, 01:24 PM

FWIW...  At 1 AM Central US time last night, I finished 107th in the Virtual Vendee, out of 450,000 entries.  First in the SA group, first American, roughly a day and half before the first real boat.  ALC and AT were ahead of the virtual fleet at Cape Horn (and I had spent most of my time in the top 100 of the virtual fleet up to that point, often in the top 50).  Then the virtual fleet totally blew apart in the South Atlantic with at least 4 different viable strategies playing out.  I was among the leaders of the second-best strategy, but lost out to those who played the best strategy effectively.  AT and ALC were closer to the track of the third-best strategy.

 

I try to not cross threads by discussing the virtual race here, but I figured this detail is worth one post.

 

The winner was an Aussie (a friend of mine in the game), who finished 16.5 hours ahead of me.  Second was a Kiwi.  Best French was 3rd, and second-best French was 6th (with Switzerland and Germany in between).  I'm guessing the French press, which actually has written things about the virtual race, is bummed that the leaderboard wasn't a French sweep.  Throughout the race, they tended to ignore the frontrunners who weren't French.  When the Aussie took a commanding lead, they started putting up articles about tangential stuff like which yacht clubs around the world have the most entries.



#7880 kass

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Posted Today, 01:25 PM

Listening to the Today programme on Radio4 in the U.K. and they do a piece on the VG. This is big deal as its the biggest talk radio breakfast show in the country. Ellen McArthur comes on to talk about how she got 2nd and sort of made the interview all about herself rather than Alex, and then when she's steered back on subject Ellen tells us that AT negated the foil damage by carrying and fitting a spare. FOR FUCKS SAKE. How dare she repeat this nonsense. If you are going to represent our sport to the masses at least have the good grace to get your facts right.

 

Anyone who would like to hear it can do so at http://www.bbc.co.uk...rammes/b08bhpbs skip to 01:42:25, lasts about 5 minutes.



#7881 WetHog

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Posted Today, 01:26 PM

Regardless of who wins this has been a pleasure to follow.  Much more enjoyable than the last version of the VOR.  

 

And this race made all the more enjoyable with the contributions of Forss and others.  Thank you.

 

WetHog   :ph34r:



#7882 GauchoGreg

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Posted Today, 01:31 PM

Regardless of who wins this has been a pleasure to follow.  Much more enjoyable than the last version of the VOR.  

 

And this race made all the more enjoyable with the contributions of Forss and others.  Thank you.

 

WetHog   :ph34r:

 

Yep. The VOR used to be really fun to follow.  I couldn't care less about it this last time.  One design and too tight of course makes it a snooze fest, even when incredibly tight racing.  But the Vendee, the Jules Verne, and the Coville solo record efforts have been a blast to follow.



#7883 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 01:54 PM

FWIW...  At 1 AM Central US time last night, I finished 107th in the Virtual Vendee, out of 450,000 entries.  First in the SA group, first American, roughly a day and half before the first real boat.  ALC and AT were ahead of the virtual fleet at Cape Horn (and I had spent most of my time in the top 100 of the virtual fleet up to that point, often in the top 50).  Then the virtual fleet totally blew apart in the South Atlantic with at least 4 different viable strategies playing out.  I was among the leaders of the second-best strategy, but lost out to those who played the best strategy effectively.  AT and ALC were closer to the track of the third-best strategy.
 
I try to not cross threads by discussing the virtual race here, but I figured this detail is worth one post.
 
The winner was an Aussie (a friend of mine in the game), who finished 16.5 hours ahead of me.  Second was a Kiwi.  Best French was 3rd, and second-best French was 6th (with Switzerland and Germany in between).  I'm guessing the French press, which actually has written things about the virtual race, is bummed that the leaderboard wasn't a French sweep.  Throughout the race, they tended to ignore the frontrunners who weren't French.  When the Aussie took a commanding lead, they started putting up articles about tangential stuff like which yacht clubs around the world have the most entries.


Virtual VG is like having sex with your sister

#7884 stief

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Posted Today, 01:55 PM

FWIW...  At 1 AM Central US time last night, I finished 107th in the Virtual Vendee, out of 450,000 entries.  First in the SA group, first American, roughly a day and half before the first real boat.  ALC and AT were ahead of the virtual fleet at Cape Horn (and I had spent most of my time in the top 100 of the virtual fleet up to that point, often in the top 50).  Then the virtual fleet totally blew apart in the South Atlantic with at least 4 different viable strategies playing out.  I was among the leaders of the second-best strategy, but lost out to those who played the best strategy effectively.  AT and ALC were closer to the track of the third-best strategy.

 

I try to not cross threads by discussing the virtual race here, but I figured this detail is worth one post.

 

The winner was an Aussie (a friend of mine in the game), who finished 16.5 hours ahead of me.  Second was a Kiwi.  Best French was 3rd, and second-best French was 6th (with Switzerland and Germany in between).  I'm guessing the French press, which actually has written things about the virtual race, is bummed that the leaderboard wasn't a French sweep.  Throughout the race, they tended to ignore the frontrunners who weren't French.  When the Aussie took a commanding lead, they started putting up articles about tangential stuff like which yacht clubs around the world have the most entries.

 

Interesting point about the third choice (and congrats: I've enjoyed following your thread and the tactics). That race was also a treat to follow, and will look forward to following the VORG too.

 

Speaking of the VOR, they've got a great opportunity to extend their global reach to 100s of thousands more, just by supplying the best polars and the access to nav tools. We've seen what Herman, forss, alpha and more can do when the data is made easily available. Hope the VOR can appreciate and help their efforts as much as we have so we can have another great Christmas.

 

And  . . speaking of data feeds: looks like Armel may be in range of this AIS station shortly https://www.marinetr...ca4d04487196542



#7885 Slark

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Posted Today, 01:58 PM

Great race. Eagerly awaiting AIS range so all work productivity can come to a stop. The door is closing for AT. Only possibility for him in my mind if the winds get fluky down the coast, ALC sails into a hole. Hats off to both ALC and AT. Experience definitely shows, consistency especially for ALC, good decision making.  Good decision to go with foiling boats, a risk with newer technology in an around the world race. Looks like foiling mono-hulls are here to stay.



#7886 stief

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Posted Today, 01:59 PM

So many good posts to catch up on--thanks all for the links and attachments. Gonna take a while :)



#7887 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 02:09 PM

Jerimie looks like getting a good ride home on the Cockmiester...the next three a battle royal....maybe JPD is my pick...Will go good on the last grumpy bit.

#7888 bosshawg

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Posted Today, 02:11 PM

 

http://sailuniverse....ed-since-2007/

evolution of an imoca 60

Stunning!

 

Imoca-comparison-768x530.png

 

I wonder how the profile of HB's v2 foils differed from v1.



#7889 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 02:13 PM

 

http://sailuniverse....ed-since-2007/
evolution of an imoca 60

Stunning!
 
Imoca-comparison-768x530.png
 
I wonder how the profile of HB's v2 foils differed from v1.
Simple ...The fat long black guy versus the skinny latte guy. Must have some serious Chinese walls at Verdier..... Arguably every boat in this race is now potentially obsolete save for HB....snd even it needs an upgrade in mast department.

#7890 bucc5062

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Posted Today, 02:22 PM

I'm starting to get into the camp of tack sooner, not later for AT.  It is time to stop playing follow the leader and matching speed won't close the distance.  If he tacks within two hours he would have a tight reach, but a lifting pressure that allows him to slowly swing ENE again.  It would also keep him in the pressure where Armel is mainly committed to more coastal breezes.  There comes a point when you toss  the routing out and find your own path, because a computer is quite happy to tell you that following someone's ass is the optimum way, but it may not be the racing way.

At this point I'd understand if AT just let's off the petal, accepts 2nd and tends to himself and the boat.  With the race he sailed on a less than optimum boat a good portion of the event, clawing back from a huge deficit, he's some of the best of what sailing and racing is about.

Bring it home Alex, ya done good.

(It would be nice if he timed his arrival such that it was in daylight, around prime time for the maximum visual effect.  People may not remember second most the time, but when they do it's because the effort was memorable.)

 



#7891 samc99us

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Posted Today, 02:28 PM

 

http://sailuniverse....ed-since-2007/

evolution of an imoca 60

Stunning!

 

Imoca-comparison-768x530.png

 

 

Interesting note from that interview: "Hugo Boss was developed for a radical programme, following Alex Thomson’s decisions. The foil pushes a greater part of the boat’s weight. The boat is a little narrower. You must work assiduously to benefit from the dynamic balance. The sailor must be very careful to always tune the boat in the best way (sails, keel angle, daggerboard)." Sounds like HB is faster but harder to sail to those speeds. Certainly explains why Alex is totally wiped, in addition to his AP and AIS problems (no AIS in that part of the ocean, no thank you!!!)



#7892 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 02:32 PM

I'm starting to get into the camp of tack sooner, not later for AT.  It is time to stop playing follow the leader and matching speed won't close the distance.  If he tacks within two hours he would have a tight reach, but a lifting pressure that allows him to slowly swing ENE again.  It would also keep him in the pressure where Armel is mainly committed to more coastal breezes.  There comes a point when you toss  the routing out and find your own path, because a computer is quite happy to tell you that following someone's ass is the optimum way, but it may not be the racing way.

At this point I'd understand if AT just let's off the petal, accepts 2nd and tends to himself and the boat.  With the race he sailed on a less than optimum boat a good portion of the event, clawing back from a huge deficit, he's some of the best of what sailing and racing is about.

Bring it home Alex, ya done good.

(It would be nice if he timed his arrival such that it was in daylight, around prime time for the maximum visual effect.  People may not remember second most the time, but when they do it's because the effort was memorable.)

 

I hope your still AT's lucky charm bracelet there Bucky with your "the Bucc has never got one prediction right"...and so thus AT does the complete opposite and maybe nails it. ...and maybe even does it in prime time...WTF.

#7893 stief

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Posted Today, 02:44 PM

The Vendée LIVE of the 18th January

 
4:50 Stewart Hosford. Alex exhausted, keen to get back on land. Stewart, whole race is nerve-racking. Nervous and excited.
8:30 Alex: 12-15 upwind, shifty. Feeling? rewire anemometer so can sleep. Stewart: get back safely, shame about the tech, get back safely.
Tom Dolan mini transit, ireland, county mead, rhythm, changed? not really, just carry on, no point changing anything now, 
Will Carson: Any chance? No. How to you feel? Resigned? Trying to slice wires, don’t care about anything else.
 
So Alex only cares about getting the anemometer fixed now, because he hasn't slept for 48 hours. Makes sad sense.


#7894 jack_sparrow

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Posted Today, 02:53 PM

VG Live TV is getting irritating by the minute.... Wasn't Will Carson's last job swallowing ping pong balls at country fairs???...as for the Scottish alternative...well at least when you shut your eyes you can pretend he is the original 007.

#7895 Herman

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Posted Today, 02:55 PM

Weather models look invalid for wind direction at Armel's position if he keeps going straight and the routing says tack! Or he prefers a higher layline for a better wind angle at Ouessant.

 

Armel 60 NM from Scillies and not on AIS atm.

Attached Files



#7896 stief

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Posted Today, 03:07 PM

Weather models look invalid for wind direction at Armel's position if he keeps going straight and the routing says tack! Or he prefers a higher layline for a better wind angle at Ouessant.

 

Armel 60 NM from Scillies and not on AIS atm.

 

Thanks for checking (and more, as ever).

 

btw, at 26:52 on the Live,  Daumail reports that when leaders are within 200 mile zone (not 100), positions will be refreshed every 30 minutes. When within 60 miles, can be followed every 6 minutes.



#7897 troof

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Posted Today, 03:07 PM

I'm starting to get into the camp of tack sooner, not later for AT.  It is time to stop playing follow the leader and matching speed won't close the distance.  If he tacks within two hours he would have a tight reach, but a lifting pressure that allows him to slowly swing ENE again.  It would also keep him in the pressure where Armel is mainly committed to more coastal breezes.  There comes a point when you toss  the routing out and find your own path, because a computer is quite happy to tell you that following someone's ass is the optimum way, but it may not be the racing way.

At this point I'd understand if AT just let's off the petal, accepts 2nd and tends to himself and the boat.  With the race he sailed on a less than optimum boat a good portion of the event, clawing back from a huge deficit, he's some of the best of what sailing and racing is about.

Bring it home Alex, ya done good.

(It would be nice if he timed his arrival such that it was in daylight, around prime time for the maximum visual effect.  People may not remember second most the time, but when they do it's because the effort was memorable.)

 

 

I'm quite sure AT knows this. It's surprising how much 'help' is obtained from the respective team HQ's. Kudos to all particiapants, living/dead, DNF's etc. Its like climbing Mt Baldy, once: good an ya, twice: you're an idiot. 



#7898 Captn D

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Posted Today, 03:11 PM

Weather models look invalid for wind direction at Armel's position if he keeps going straight and the routing says tack! Or he prefers a higher layline for a better wind angle at Ouessant.

 

Armel 60 NM from Scillies and not on AIS atm.

Looking at the list of of AIS receivers.  St. Martin Isles of Scilly has a max receiving range of 27nm and an average of 6.9nm.  If he gets that close he should drop in to the Turks Head for a beer!



#7899 stief

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Posted Today, 03:12 PM

VG Live TV is getting irritating by the minute.... Wasn't Will Carson's last job swallowing ping pong balls at country fairs???...as for the Scottish alternative...well at least when you shut your eyes you can pretend he is the original 007.

 

Laughing. Guess I'm just getting used to him, especially since the Live no longer gets interrupted by stupid ads, and that he does a great job lining up past and future competitors. Liked the way Alex handled the stupid "feeling" and what will happen questions. Getting Hosford on was a win, whose words and tone are well worth the time to hear.



#7900 Dog

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Posted Today, 03:13 PM

I'm thinking Alex should tack to force Armel to cover or split.