[2Newts]

From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

http://www.arl.noaa...._animations.php

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp
Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel
Feb 12: outside forecast range

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

2N

[pjh]

2Newts, on Jan 26 2010, 12:45 PM, said:

From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

http://www.arl.noaa...._animations.php

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp
Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel
Feb 12: outside forecast range

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

2N

It's going to be a chilly ride!

[TpaBayFlyFisher]

2Newts, on Jan 26 2010, 03:45 PM, said:

From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

http://www.arl.noaa...._animations.php

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp
Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel
Feb 12: outside forecast range

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

2N

How high up is that estimate for? As we all know it is 60 meters that is the critical height in yacht racing. The wind at other levels is simply meaningless!

[DC_US55]

pjh, on Jan 26 2010, 09:48 PM, said:

2Newts, on Jan 26 2010, 12:45 PM, said:

From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

http://www.arl.noaa...._animations.php

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp
Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel
Feb 12: outside forecast range

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

2N

It's going to be a chilly ride!

Whaddya mean we don't have a de-icer?!

[2Newts]

TpaBayFlyFisher, on Jan 26 2010, 03:51 PM, said:

2Newts, on Jan 26 2010, 03:45 PM, said:

From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

http://www.arl.noaa...._animations.php

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp
Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel
Feb 12: outside forecast range

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

2N

How high up is that estimate for? As we all know it is 60 meters that is the critical height in yacht racing. The wind at other levels is simply meaningless!

Sorry, it's for 10 meters. That is the standard height for forecasts. If you or anyone else can find a 60M or similar forecast, please share!

[TpaBayFlyFisher]

2Newts, on Jan 26 2010, 04:07 PM, said:

TpaBayFlyFisher, on Jan 26 2010, 03:51 PM, said:

2Newts, on Jan 26 2010, 03:45 PM, said:

From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

http://www.arl.noaa...._animations.php

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp
Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel
Feb 12: outside forecast range

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

2N

How high up is that estimate for? As we all know it is 60 meters that is the critical height in yacht racing. The wind at other levels is simply meaningless!

Sorry, it's for 10 meters. That is the standard height for forecasts. If you or anyone else can find a 60M or similar forecast, please share!

Sorry for being so subtle......................SNG is cheat, err trying to gain an unfair advantage on this point! It has placed wind limits to be measured higher than it's masthead!

"It is anticipated that races shall be
sailed in winds having a windspeed of not more than 15 knots measured
at 60 metres, and in waves of not more than 1 metre in height."

[Enzedel 92]

http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast3...IA&metric=1

Winds ENE @ 9 MPH...


Bad news for BOR!!!!

[2Newts]

Rusel Koots, on Jan 26 2010, 04:53 PM, said:

http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast3...IA&metric=1

Winds ENE @ 9 MPH...


Bad news for BOR!!!!

I think you have the wrong Valencia.
There is one in Galacia at 42.5N, 007.0W
The other is in Comunidad Valenciana at 39.5N, 000.5W

http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast3...IA&metric=1

Shows Feb 8 at NNE 8.5kts

Almost 180 degrees opposite from GFS!

Well, ok, we will just have to wait to see as time passes and models begin to converge.

2N

[timt]

Long range progs are notoriously inaccurate. 48 hour weather begins to become accurate. Additionally, as Hough has mentioned, wind predictions made for shore conditions may have little to do with conditions covering the 100 or so square miles that composes the course. Also wind conditions at the surface may now associate with conditions at 200 feet.

[Tornado Cat]

Rusel Koots, on Jan 26 2010, 04:53 PM, said:

http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast3...IA&metric=1

Winds ENE @ 9 MPH...


Bad news for BOR!!!!

I find this site better, and the wind speed is in knots.
If the forecast are good they will not be, at minimum, before Feb 2 on the water, and after it will be the measurements, so not much training for Bor with their new rig. The new wing looks great but, as a matter of racing, I find it pretty desperate to go and race a new rig not really tested...We want to see both boats racing, no one breaking before the end.

[ProaSailor]

Tornado Cat, on Jan 26 2010, 02:04 PM, said:

I find this site better, and the wind speed is in knots.

Which site? URL please?

Here is the wind data from wunderground.com for January so far, with wind gust speeds noted in blue - significantly, wind gust data is "sparse", appearing only as noted by the blue bars - otherwise, it apparently wasn't gusting? Horizontal lines are five knots each:
 VLC_Jan_2010.gif (331K)
Number of downloads: 67

[SW Sailor]

ProaSailor, on Jan 26 2010, 11:08 PM, said:

Tornado Cat, on Jan 26 2010, 02:04 PM, said:

I find this site better, and the wind speed is in knots.

Which site? URL please?

Here is the wind data from wunderground.com for January so far, with wind gust speeds noted in blue - significantly, wind gust data is "sparse", appearing only as noted by the blue bars - otherwise, it apparently wasn't gusting? Horizontal lines are five knots each:
VLC_Jan_2010.gif

Keep the weather information flowing, your forecasts are great.

[DryArmour]

2Newts, on Jan 26 2010, 12:45 PM, said:

From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

http://www.arl.noaa...._animations.php

Looking at the long-range section for a few more days yet (in the right hand column), and of course the wind forecast is at 10M. As of now, the forecast for Feb 8 at 12Z, which is as close as GFS will give us to the start time, is the 312 hour forecast.

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp
Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel
Feb 12: outside forecast range

I will update from this model. If any of you have other/better input, please add.

2N

http://www.predictwind.com Free 30 days...

[SimonN]

DryArmour, on Jan 27 2010, 10:09 PM, said:

http://www.predictwind.com Free 30 days...

I wonder if they will be giving forecasts for Valencia and if they do, whether they can be trusted. I think it highly unlikely, seeing that it is run by the Alinghi weather team!

[Estar]

2Newts, on Jan 26 2010, 09:45 PM, said:

From NOAA, in the long-range GFS model:

Feb 8: 10kts SW, 10deg Celcius air temp
Feb 10: 10kts SE, 10deg Cel
Feb 12: outside forecast range

I am not sure where you got that. I download the gfs data direct (into viewfax) and for Valencia it say:

02/08 0600 wind: 6.8kts 104 degrees pressure: 1006.6
02/08 1800 wind: 9.6kts 087 degrees pressure: 1007.0
02/09 0600 wind: 10.3kts 085 degrees pressure: 1003.8
02/09 1800 wind: 7.9kts 072 degrees pressure: 1001.0
02/10 0600 wind: 9.9kts 062 degrees pressure: 999.7
02/10 1800 wind: 4.5kts 096 degrees pressure: 996.3

That's wind at 10m, degrees true, time in UTC; and don't believe it at all until at most 5 days out.

This is the picture for 02/08 0600, but again, don't believe it!

 gfs_0208.gif (192.42K)
Number of downloads: 15

[va bene]

Tornado Cat, on Jan 27 2010, 01:04 AM, said:

Rusel Koots, on Jan 26 2010, 04:53 PM, said:

http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast3...IA&metric=1

Winds ENE @ 9 MPH...


Bad news for BOR!!!!

I find this site better, and the wind speed is in knots.
If the forecast are good they will not be, at minimum, before Feb 2 on the water, and after it will be the measurements, so not much training for Bor with their new rig. The new wing looks great but, as a matter of racing, I find it pretty desperate to go and race a new rig not really tested...We want to see both boats racing, no one breaking before the end.

no training for A5 either that has yet to show a decent tack and sailing in winds above 15 knots (measured at 60 meters!)

[j24vt]

http://www.ecmwf.int/

http://weather.unisy.../index_eur.html

[2Newts]

GFS 00Z/12Z is uploaded. Sorry all, I am just reading the wind barbs to get strength (rounded to nearest 5) as I do not have a grib reader at work. Data are:

Feb 8: 10kts E, 8deg Cel (12Z, 288 hour forecast)
Feb 10: 5-10kts SE, 9deg Cel
Feb 12: 10kts NE, 8deg Cel

GFS is calling for a series of competing lows to move from WSW to ENE from off of Cadiz towards Sardinia, weakening and creating cwms or valleys with really far-apart isobars ... and lots of clouds and light rain.

In my own experience in the NW Atlantic, GFS is really bad at forecasting wind strengths in these conditions and usually overstates them by at least 5 knots.

Unless the model starts to predict a new macro pattern (which is actually somewhat likely this far out), its looking like really light stuff for the races.

I will try to put a grib reader on my work pc for future forecasts...

2N

[ncs]

SimonN, on Jan 27 2010, 11:13 AM, said:

DryArmour, on Jan 27 2010, 10:09 PM, said:

http://www.predictwind.com Free 30 days...

I wonder if they will be giving forecasts for Valencia and if they do, whether they can be trusted. I think it highly unlikely, seeing that it is run by the Alinghi weather team!

PredictWind also blocked out predictions during the 2009 LVPS in Auckland. Much bigger stakes now, eh?

[2Newts]

GFS 12Z is uploaded. Thanks to ESTAR for pointing me to an excellent free grib reader that I was able to get onto the work PC.

Feb 8: 9kts NNE, 10deg Cel (12Z, 264 hour forecast)
Feb 10: 6kts NNW, 10deg Cel
Feb 12: 13kts W, 11deg Cel

Not much change in wind strengths except for day 3. Directions are totally different versus yesterday's forecast. Applying my own experience with the GFS model this far out (my experience is in the NW Atlantic, not the Med), when GFS keeps wind strengths below 10 but moves direction all around, the reality often turns out to be truly light and variable, like 3-6knots and bouncing around the compass.

2N

[tr1plet]

ncs, on Jan 27 2010, 12:41 PM, said:

SimonN, on Jan 27 2010, 11:13 AM, said:

DryArmour, on Jan 27 2010, 10:09 PM, said:

http://www.predictwind.com Free 30 days...

I wonder if they will be giving forecasts for Valencia and if they do, whether they can be trusted. I think it highly unlikely, seeing that it is run by the Alinghi weather team!

PredictWind also blocked out predictions during the 2009 LVPS in Auckland. Much bigger stakes now, eh?

Yes, they are blocking Valencia per contractual obligations: I am a subscriber except during the winter months, but decided the AC was worth paying a month non the less. They did refund me my money very promptly when I contacted them explaining the situation, and were very polite and professional about it.

And their data quality rocks - sometimes the timing of the wind development is a bit off by an hour or two, but it is really quite impressive, especially the 24 hour 1km models. It is expensive, but you get what you pay for :) .

[2Newts]

GFS 12Z is uploaded. Big changes today

Feb 8: 7kts NNE, 11deg Cel (12Z, 240 hour forecast)
Feb 10: 15kts W, 8deg Cel
Feb 12: 15kts NW, 8deg Cel

The change is due to a new system the model is finding. In 'normal' conditions, the North Atlantic has a high or a series of highs spanning the ocean from Bermuda to the Azores and a low or series of lows spanning from Newfoundland to Iceland. When the ocean is nice and stable like that, there are steady trade winds over the ocean and generally light breezes over the eastern US and western Europe. But in the winter, strange things can (and do) happen, such as a low coming out of the Caribbean Sea and sending the Azores high eastward over land, which is what GFS is showing is going to happen between the 3rd and 5th of February. While this should give very pleasant weather and light winds to Valencia for a while, it is allowing an 'non-normal' situation to develop in the North Atlantic where highs and lows are oriented west-to-east across the center of the ocean. Once this situation develops, a series of relatively strong lows are predicted to move east into the Med.

If this situation actually unfolds, the forecasts for race-days will vary a lot as we get closer depending on whether the systems speed up or slow down or take a more northerly or southerly route. Just a six-hour adjustment in the forecast arrival of a low could mean the difference between 5 knot winds or 20 knots in Valencia at race time.

Stay tuned.

2N

[wraith]

looking quiet

Attached File(s)

•  Wind3285032and32mslp_Europe_216.gif (87.27K)
  Number of downloads: 27

[Estar]

Starting to look interesting for the 8th. Remember these are the winds at 10m and it will be stronger up higher.

 valencia.jpg (391.19K)
Number of downloads: 28

[dogwatch]

This is all very nice but as someone who lives on the receiving end of Atlantic lows, I can tell you that the state of the art for reasonably reliable forecasts is some 4-5 days out.