1279 replies to this topic

[Cheap Beer]

Incredible. I see Puma picking the fresh NE first in the next 36 hrs and gaining/extending further. They must be stoked.

[Swanno (Ohf Shore)]

Tracker has Groupama in the lead now.

[DtM]

Just looked at the dashboard on the Volvo site and the range of true wind directions is extraordinary. True it is they are spread out but between the six boats they have the entire compass covered.

[oioi]

Feel for Cramper, as they've sailed pretty well positioning wise overall.

im not sure they have sailed so well after the south china sea. they could not do anything about puma, but it looks to me like they allowed groupama to sail away by climbing north and then ador seem to have benefited as well. Whilst its still a long way and lots of things could happen, the last 3 days or so have not been good by camper.

[whispers]

its the next week that looks interesting with all the light air coming up and who punches throught first and where

[dogwatch]

^

Yep. Note how the boats in the south have now turned further south?

[Summerwind]

Auckland Webcam:
http://www.waterfron...ery/Webcam.aspx

Pumas container have already arrived, you can see them in the lower right corner.

[gimmee]

Auckland Webcam:
http://www.waterfron...ery/Webcam.aspx

Pumas container have already arrived, you can see them in the lower right corner.

Except that pic is of Port Moresby. Another case of deja vu ?

[Kenny Dumas]

What a cool race. Looks like the wind builds for the whole fleet today. I was hoping they'd all get headed enough for Puma to consolidate out in front but more likely it's just a very close reach for everyone. Restart, drag race ON.

[boomer]

its the next week that looks interesting with all the light air coming up and who punches throught first and where

It'll make it interesting...

^

Yep. Note how the boats in the south have now turned further south?

We'll see how it plays out.

[bombarie]

Hmmm. Wonder whether the fleet is turning South too early. Once in the Trades making East comes at a huge cost to overal speed, as the winds are ENE-ish? And they need to be around 165 EST to clear the Solomons. There's good winds to go further East in the next 18 hrs, especially for Puma, and then set up for the Mother of All Reaches into Auckland (or at least: a long way towards it). Can't wait to see whether Addis has more rabbits in his hat to pull out!

[coxcreek]

Getting even more inarestin', all the fleet at similar average speed (14-16 knots) and heading right now - but Groupama and Puma have a small, soggy hole dead ahead, if they retain their same course. Camper and Telefonica will claw back some miles and then it will be pedal to metal to the doldrums.

[needforspeed]

Puma have failed to capitalise on the East unlike Groupama and are now the slowest boat in the fleet. Must be so frustrating for them, their run of at the back of the fleet continues.

[Mud sailor]

Puma had some sort of issue, tracker shows a small 'blip' in the track

equipment or wind?

[Gert]

Puma had some sort of issue, tracker shows a small 'blip' in the track
equipment or wind?

Change of plans/tactics/strategy or head sail?

[Terrafirma]

Puma could be in for another shocker..! Sanya ahead of them now and Puma slowest boat in fleet doing 9 knots versus 17 knots. The pain continues for Kennie, ouch again.

[whynotsolo?]

I bet the jog is that they hit something or blew something up. I wonder when we'll find this out. They certainly are off the pace.

[Cheap Beer]

I bet the jog is that they hit something or blew something up. I wonder when we'll find this out. They certainly are off the pace.

Might have been a jibe to consolidate. I saw the TWA of 1°.
It may have been too early to high five.

[smackdaddy]

Puma could be in for another shocker..! Sanya ahead of them now and Puma slowest boat in fleet doing 9 knots versus 17 knots. The pain continues for Kennie, ouch again.

If that's true - I'm honestly going to be gutted. Such a brilliant move - then...

Shoot me now.

[whispers]

my bet for this leg many miles to go

1 group

2 tele

3camper

4abu

5puma

6sanya

[coxcreek]

Camper is showing improved performance, especially upwind where she is the best in fleet, and also down, but Groupama is king on a reach; prediction: they'll finish 1 2 in that order, Tele 3rd.

[DtM]

I am not sure that Camper is faster downwind than Tele.

1. Groupama 2. Tele 3. Camper

[corkob]

Overall Abu Dhabi seem to be struggling in this race. What is the problem. Jules Salter was on the ball in 2008/9. Have Farr got it wrong again? Or is it something else. It would be great to see them get a result and to see the leaderboard close up. Similar thoughts about Puma. Both Read and Walker must be pissed off about making up the back markers.

[oioi]

im not sure why any of you are putting tele on the podium? this is a very closely matched fleet, and at the moment the rest of the fleet are much better positioned than tele. not saying they cannot get on the podium from there, just it will be tough. the eastern boats stil hold significant advantage, but as ever picking a lane and crossing the doldrums could have a signficant impact (dont forget groupama lost a healthy lead on the last leg going through).

[oioi]

Overall Abu Dhabi seem to be struggling in this race. What is the problem. Jules Salter was on the ball in 2008/9. Have Farr got it wrong again? Or is it something else. It would be great to see them get a result and to see the leaderboard close up. Similar thoughts about Puma. Both Read and Walker must be pissed off about making up the back markers.

im a fan of ador and really wanted them to do well. i think theres two things wrong with ADOR - Farr and sail development. They seem generally to be going in the right direction. its interesting to note that they have been following groupama's line for over 24 hr's, and have lost about 60 miles during that period (okay weather may have been less favourable, but a component of that would appear to be boat speed).



Ian Walker mentioned a new main for this leg, I am not sure when others are swapping out sails? is this infomartion available of who has measured in what sails?

[coxcreek]

The black Farr has a much fuller bow than the rest of the fleet - maybe the semi- David Raison 6.50 approach doesn't work so well on larger designs. But maybe again, in hard running conditions and big seas in Southern Ocean, the boat will really perform. Just guessing.

[Carboninit]

Abu Dhabi, can someone tell walker to get his finger out of his arse stop being mr nice guy and start racing, fuck sake.

[Who's your daddy]

The black Farr has a much fuller bow than the rest of the fleet - maybe the semi- David Raison 6.50 approach doesn't work so well on larger designs. But maybe again, in hard running conditions and big seas in Southern Ocean, the boat will really perform. Just guessing.

Apparently at some points of sail she really gets up and flies, particularly downwind ina breeze. So far in the race they haven't had as much downwind sailing as expected due to the dismasting in the first leg and unusual weather since. They are only allowed 2 mainsails for the entire race, so bringing in the new one now means they must have needed it. Hope it works and the wind swings round to let them show if the boat is fast downwind.

[dogwatch]

But maybe again, in hard running conditions and big seas in Southern Ocean, the boat will really perform.

Not what this race is about any more though is it? A tiny proportion of the overall points available.

[mr_ryano]

Puma have failed to capitalise on the East unlike Groupama and are now the slowest boat in the fleet. Must be so frustrating for them, their run of at the back of the fleet continues.

Man, you guys just can't wait to jump off the bandwagon. Just like going north, going east is a long term move. Everyone gets a hole now and again, but at last check, Puma was knowing off the highest averages and the weather models are showing better pressure and angle to the east. Doldrums also look really small 4-5 days out on current predicted heading

[29erNeil]

If the full data tables are to be believed Abu Dhabi have hit 29knots sometime this morning, they found breeze somewhere!

[bamiles]

My reply below;



((((Man, you guys just can't wait to jump off the bandwagon. Just like going north, going east is a long term move. Everyone gets a hole now and again, but at last check, Puma was knowing off the highest averages and the weather models are showing better pressure and angle to the east. Doldrums also look really small 4-5 days out on current predicted heading))))


Wow, I have (am) really liking this discussion. Puma made a call (some have called a flier..), to go 300-400 miles more to get in touch with the leaders. But, they were not that far behind at the south of Taiwan.. and have done the extra distance and extra risk and haven't got ahead? What I would like to ask is of opinion of that? A good idea? Certainly it was good for us watching...

[J24_guy]

my bet for this leg many miles to go

1 group

2 tele

3camper

4abu

5puma

6sanya

Reverse 4 and 5 and I agree with you. I can't see ADOR beating Puma. BTW, to the main thrust of where this thread has gone now, surely the underwater design of the boats matters. But let's not forget about trimming skill. These are pretty nuanced sail shapes and (as you can see from the videos) highly, highly dynamic -- meaning that even on the steadiest points of sail they require constant adjusting. If you've done OD racing, think of the times when your trimmer just keeps the shape infinitesimally better than the other guys -- big, big advantage.

Much respect to the Sanya guys -- their boat should not have a chance in hell against these new designs and they have sailed exceedingly well. Puma and ADOR should be downright embarrassed. For the next 3K miles, Sanya will of course be creamed, because there's so little emphasis on tactics, with the exception of the Doldrums crossing. This leg has turned from a Newport-style race where tactics and getting to the right part of the course are by far the most important thing, to a San Diego-style race where raw boatspeed is 95% of the game.

[KingMonkey]

If I remember correctly, ABN AMRO One was optimised for TWA at 130ish degrees. TELE is apparently optimised for AWA at 30-50 degrees. Walker has said that ADOR is not optimised for going to windward, and the volume of their bow coupled by their results against the upwind-optimised boat certainly seem to suggest that.

Still, they will continue to gain on Camper, Sanya and Tele for a bit, although probably not enough to catch Camper. . . I'm interested that Tele have turned so far South (which is how they're matching Abu / Puma's speeds pretty much as they're 13 degrees lower than Abu, which apart from Sanya is the highest right now). The boats still have a long way East to get and the wind looks like it will slowly knock them up until the Doldrums. Still, they haven't got it wrong yet. . .

[J22guy]

Is it just me or does it look like if someone had turned south once they got past the Phillippines they would be way ahead?

[Indio]

Is it just me or does it look like if someone had turned south once they got past the Phillippines they would be way ahead?

Hindsight's a bitch.

[rule69]

The boats still have a long way East to get and the wind looks like it will slowly knock them up until the Doldrums. Still, they haven't got it wrong yet. . .

Question:

I think of the "doldrums" as being the zone between the NE trades and the SE trades or, perhaps, the equatorial area that doesn't primarily derive it's winds from closed pressure systems (ITCZ). So, to my way of talking about it the fleet has already transited the doldrums. No?

Heading South the mid ("horse") latitudes with their progression of H's between the islands and NZ may well present light winds but the game is different than with the doldrums because there are regular pressure systems and fronts. So being to the West after New Cal might pay off is there if the timing of a front allows the fleet to carry Westerlies into NZ but for sure missing the calms in the H centers and avoiding the Southerlies will play into it. At any rate, I haven't used the term Doldrums (at least with a capital dee) for that area even when it's windless. But, I don't want to be a language reactionary or anything. Is Doldrums now proper usage for any place where the winds are light?

[Estar]

I think of the "doldrums" as being the zone between the NE trades and the SE trades or, perhaps, the equatorial area that doesn't primarily derive it's winds from closed pressure systems (ITCZ). So, to my way of talking about it the fleet has already transited the doldrums. No?

They are still at about 18N - correct? If so, then No then I would say they have not passed thru the Doldrums yet. I would have said the doldrums were roughly were I have drawn the pink line. An area of relatively low pressure with vertical wind development between the northern hemi and southern hemi circulation. By the way, anyone notice the low forecast for NZ on 3/3? Looks windy.

 doldrums.jpg   220.54K   43 downloads
 ITCZ_january-july.png   160.92K   36 downloads

[rule69]

I think of the "doldrums" as being the zone between the NE trades and the SE trades or, perhaps, the equatorial area that doesn't primarily derive it's winds from closed pressure systems (ITCZ). So, to my way of talking about it the fleet has already transited the doldrums. No?

They are still at about 18N - correct? If so, then No then I would say they have not passed thru the Doldrums yet. I would have said the doldrums were roughly were I have drawn the pink line. An area of relatively low pressure with vertical wind development between the northern hemi and southern hemi circulation. By the way, anyone notice the low forecast for NZ on 3/3? Looks windy.

 doldrums.jpg   220.54K   43 downloads
 ITCZ_january-july.png   160.92K   36 downloads

Good point. I was wrong. They have not transited the Doldrums. What I should have typed is that I don't think they will pass through the Doldrums as such.

The current GFS shows a minimum in the trades around 11S assuming they are W of 170E. There's a trough between Vanuatu and Fiji running SE down into the SO with no wind. The CZ is further south to the East though so East of Vanuatu as far South as 15 S looks interesting and then the timing of the front will determine best options... Still not at all sure this is "the Doldrums". Looks more like the SPCZ plus (assuming the WX model holds up) a bit of a trough to me. It may be tricky but is isn't like the big features between the NE and SE trades that usually get that name.

Attached Files

•  vor wx.png   939.98K   42 downloads

[Indio]

Withe the healthy winds and temperatures they're sailing in, it's fun to see who has the legs in this point of sailing. AD's 442nm in 24 hours and Groupama's 440, Tele's 433 and Puma 432, etc: these numbers make it look fairly consistent.
 VOR1.JPG   162.78K   22 downloads

Telefonica looks like they could haul in Camper in the next 24 hours. Damn!!

[whispers]

poor camper gets creamed in any sort of reach

[Gert]

poor camper gets creamed in any sort of reach

Excerpt from "Guide lines for first time VOR teams".

Chapter 1

1.1 Getting Started.

Pick up your phone and call Juan K.
...

That'll teach them to not order boats from anybody else. Good lesson for Abu Dhabi too. What were they thinking?

[coxcreek]

Absolutely no disrespect for Juan Kouyoumdjian. - in fact nothing but respect for him - because, aside from his fresh, race design viewpoints, he after all, had the audacity to also suggest multihulls would be better in the long ocean races; faster, safer, drier? (and everyone, even die hard core mono nutters, knows this to be true) - but, even though Gert is a humorous JK believer, I've read, here and elsewhere, terrifyingly angry abuse aimed at him ... and so, end of day, the Farr and Bottin boats allow us differing viewpoints, strengths and weakneses and so on - which makes it all very inarestin;, no? If the V fleet was comprised of one design - how boring that would be. Just imo of course.

[mr_ryano]

poor camper gets creamed in any sort of reach

I'd love to know how much of this design came from ETNZ's internal team and how much from Botin. The boat certainly isn't a v2 version of il Mostro

[Gert]

Absolutely no disrespect for Juan Kouyoumdjian. - in fact nothing but respect for him - because, aside from his fresh, race design viewpoints, he after all, had the audacity to also suggest multihulls would be better in the long ocean races; faster, safer, drier? (and everyone, even die hard core mono nutters, knows this to be true) - but, even though Gert is a humorous JK believer, I've read, here and elsewhere, terrifyingly angry abuse aimed at him ... and so, end of day, the Farr and Bottin boats allow us differing viewpoints, strengths and weakneses and so on - which makes it all very inarestin;, no? If the V fleet was comprised of one design - how boring that would be. Just imo of course.

I am definitely not a believer, more like and observer. And I totally agree with you about other designers trying. I had actually hoped myself that Botin's design would have been more competitive. I personally don't enjoy one design races so much at least as a spectator.
My remarks were more focused at Farr design, who after 3 tries still do not seem to get it right. If I were to start a campaign (wishful thinking) I don't think I'd trust Farr design with my design, unless they would be my primary sponsor (which they won't).
Having said that I also wish them well and would love to see Abu Dhabi do well.

Back to observing ;-)

[DtM]

I am not sure why you say it would be boring.

Different crews with different strengths.

Navigational choices would still be in play.

Sure some element of variety would be lost but not boring.

[Expedition]

The next few days are going to be interesting. The latest GFS routing (same polars, no current or waves) suggests a split in the fleet is possible, with the leading 3 boats going east of the Solomons and the others just west. A part of this split is because of the (very) long range forecast for the area north of NZ. I suspect everyone will go east, but it might be tempting to sail a little faster over the next few days.


Name , Time , Delta
GPMA , 10d 06h 16m ,
PUMA , 10d 11h 43m , 5h 26m
ADOR , 10d 20h 24m , 14h 07m
CAMP , 11d 06h 45m , 1d 00h
TELE , 11d 13h 54m , 1d 07h
SNYA , 11d 22h 16m , 1d 15h

Attached Files

•  vor.png   385.05K   75 downloads

[punter]

So it looks like a 3-5 day turnaround from reaching Auckland to Leg 5 start due to the wind at the beginning of the leg. Going to be tight time period to overhaul the boats and prep them for the next leg. Plus recovery time for the crews as they still have Pro-Am and Inport race to do.

[smackdaddy]

Looks like Puma moving a bit. Go The Cat!

[Terrafirma]

Looks like Puma moving a bit. Go The Cat!

Agreed, lets hope they can hold it together until the end, something always seems to happen with them.

[Merit 25]

Puma still moving up with good speed. GPMA had an instant speed of 26 kts. Impressive.
Go Puma. I'm always surprised how many question the tactics of professionals doing what they do best. Still many miles to go, but it looks like they're in good shape for a little while at least.

[clamslapper]

Groupama seems positioned to checkmate just about everyone. They are just caning that thing! The boats to the west, it seems to me, are going to have a lot more uphill work once they reach the southern, i.e., SE'ly, trades. Don't really understand why Puma has lost so many miles to Groupama, but at least they appear to be holding steady at this point.

Of course if the Doldrums don't cooperate, the race could be blown wide open.

My hat's off to Sanya. They are running with the big dogs this time.

The Camper guys are going to be in need of therapy. They just cannot get it done.

One of the posters wrote about the trimmers -- I agree that they are the magic bullet as far as boatspeed. Especially at night.

[dogwatch]

I'm always surprised how many question the tactics of professionals doing what they do best.

Huh? If boats are spread across the ocean they can't all have made the best call. Anyone they are, as you say, professionals. It's a case of "Here we are now. Entertain us."

[whispers]

poor camper gets creamed in any sort of reach

I'd love to know how much of this design came from ETNZ's internal team and how much from Botin. The boat certainly isn't a v2 version of il Mostro

id like to know the same thing, i think its a good thing there are different designers involved i would have love to have seen someone like finot and see what their approach would have been also reichel pugh have another go with sufficient time and money

[Left Hook]

Puma now in second!!!

[Barkley]

EDIT: damn, LH beat me to it.

[rule69]

Of course if the Doldrums don't cooperate, the race could be blown wide open.

By way of penance I've done some "research". So, now I'm really confused. But a couple of thoughts:

1) Estar drew his ITCZ at the pressure minimum. That's reasonable but there certainly aren't any doldrums there (should be moderate Easterly trades).

2) I can't determine the provenance of the Wikipedia chart Estar posted. So, I'm not sure what, exactly, is is supposed to represent. I'm guessing pressure minimums again but, again, that doesn't mean there isn't wind.

3) The 2006 La Nina ITCZ looks pretty similar to the current state of affairs (http://www.wamis.org...imate200604.pdf).

3a) Hmmmmm....

4) The current GFS does show the fleet running into light winds as they go past Vanuatu and that will be tricky but it seems to me to be too transitory a feature to really count as doldrums. IMO, It's just the usual garbage you get from fronts blocking the trades.

5) I think, as is typical, the big problem will be getting around the mid-lat H's centered around 35S but they aren't doldrums either.

6) That or something else entirely... Anyway, I don't think they're headed for the Doldrums (meaning a large, stationary and permanent windless feature) again 'till they get to the Atlantic. But, semantics aside there's a long way to go and lots of interesting navigation and, if the model holds out, it does look like there could be some light stuff to deal with as well.

Attached Files

•  vor la nina w pac.png   138.81K   39 downloads
•  vor itcz deux.png   692.99K   42 downloads

[rule69]

Go Puma!

[Alysum]

Puma, G4 & AD have all clocked over 500nm in 24! Wish there was a helicopter out there filming this drag race

Did Camper gybe to West before gybing again?

[Indio]

Camper had a problem....

CAMPER with Emirates Team New Zealand has had a tough 24 hours after blowing out the tack rope in their reaching headsail in boisterous trade wind conditions.

After finally picking up the elusive north east trade winds overnight and enjoying boat speeds surging above 20 knots the crew of CAMPER were forced to drop the J2 sail for several painful hours to carry out hasty repairs causing a costly drop in boat speed.

[Alysum]

Confirmed on Facebook. Did they hoist a kite while they went west a bit?

[Heriberto]

The specumafullicationizing regarding "yacht designers" is pretty damn humorous. Over the last days, after days of racing there many times wasn't 100 miles (hypothetical to finish) separating first from last, with around 4000 miles to go. That includes Sanya with a generation old boat.

Ultimately maybe people will realize this is a sport? That sailing matters?

[moody frog]

Of course if the Doldrums don't cooperate, the race could be blown wide open.

By way of penance I've done some "research". So, now I'm really confused. But a couple of thoughts:

1) Estar drew his ITCZ at the pressure minimum. That's reasonable but there certainly aren't any doldrums there (should be moderate Easterly trades).

2) I can't determine the provenance of the Wikipedia chart Estar posted. So, I'm not sure what, exactly, is is supposed to represent. I'm guessing pressure minimums again but, again, that doesn't mean there isn't wind.

3) The 2006 La Nina ITCZ looks pretty similar to the current state of affairs (http://www.wamis.org...imate200604.pdf).

3a) Hmmmmm....

4) The current GFS does show the fleet running into light winds as they go past Vanuatu and that will be tricky but it seems to me to be too transitory a feature to really count as doldrums. IMO, It's just the usual garbage you get from fronts blocking the trades.

5) I think, as is typical, the big problem will be getting around the mid-lat H's centered around 35S but they aren't doldrums either.

6) That or something else entirely... Anyway, I don't think they're headed for the Doldrums (meaning a large, stationary and permanent windless feature) again 'till they get to the Atlantic. But, semantics aside there's a long way to go and lots of interesting navigation and, if the model holds out, it does look like there could be some light stuff to deal with as well.

FWIW: a GPMA analysis (yesterday) of the decision to be made about where to cross the "doldrums" and the implications of that choice.
HERE
Sounds like a key transition.

[Vorwaerts]

FWIW: a GPMA analysis (yesterday) of the decision to be made about where to cross the "doldrums" and the implications of that choice.
HERE
Sounds like a key transition.

That explains why Groupama still are heading more to the east than everyone else. I wonder whether they continue to push east if they cross Pumas line.

[oioi]

FWIW: a GPMA analysis (yesterday) of the decision to be made about where to cross the "doldrums" and the implications of that choice.
HERE
Sounds like a key transition.

That explains why Groupama still are heading more to the east than everyone else. I wonder whether they continue to push east if they cross Pumas line.

not sure they are heading more east than anyone else, they are just further down the race track and therefore further east. Puma, Groupama and ADOR headings have all been very similar and the separation fairly consistent.

[smackdaddy]

Puma still moving up with good speed. GPMA had an instant speed of 26 kts. Impressive.
Go Puma. I'm always surprised how many question the tactics of professionals doing what they do best. Still many miles to go, but it looks like they're in good shape for a little while at least.

I questioned them. Nothing wrong with questioning - questioning just makes their awesomeness that much clearer when they pull it off.

[Gert]

Puma still moving up with good speed. GPMA had an instant speed of 26 kts. Impressive.
Go Puma. I'm always surprised how many question the tactics of professionals doing what they do best. Still many miles to go, but it looks like they're in good shape for a little while at least.

I questioned them. Nothing wrong with questioning - questioning just makes their awesomeness that much clearer when they pull it off.

Also, sailing away from the fleet and the finish line is risky. All navigators knew there would be more wind in the North and at more favourable angles, but it was not clear whether it would pay back the investment. And it still isn't, given that Puma crossed 8 miles in front of Abu Dhabi's bow before heading North and (because of their performance edge over Abu) could probably have been where they are now, but with a lot less risk.
They took a flyer. And flyers can go well, wrong, or break even, which is what seems to have happened in this case.

[Left Hook]

Nico's blog says they tore the J2 in half and have put up the J4 but are suffering while repairing it.

Would explain their "oopsie" we're seeing.

[bombarie]

I still believe Puma's Flyer hasn't shown its full potential yet. Once we get to windward of the Solomon Islands it will show -- the remainder of the fleet is going to be in (i) lower winds at (ii) less favorable angles, and Puma and GPMA are going to benefit. Or so it seems to me. Yes Groupama didn't go North and got the same benefit as Puma perhaps was seeking here -- they were smart to capitalize on an non foreseen opportunity (and Camper didn't at the time, they steered East not North East), good for them.

What I wonder is how to deal with Vanuatu. Pass it East or West, what do you guys think?

[Terrorvision]

Nico's blog says they tore the J2 in half and have put up the J4 but are suffering while repairing it.

Would explain their "oopsie" we're seeing.

Fucking clowns should have put the J3 up. Can't Kiwis count? They should sack Nico now, chuck him overboard and let a chopper pick him up.

[rule69]

FWIW: a GPMA analysis (yesterday) of the decision to be made about where to cross the "doldrums" and the implications of that choice.
HERE
Sounds like a key transition.

Yes, I think "that word doesn't mean what I think it means"... Anyway, no disagreement that there is a big transition. And there certainly are doldrums off to the West. But I think that maybe the doldrums that G4 is talking about are not really The Doldrums but rather a light wind transition that is not very much associated with the ITCZ or very permanent. On the chart I've drawn where the ITCZ is assuming it is defined as a pressure minimum and that place has wind. It does look like the choice of how to go around the islands will be complicated by the fact that there may be a light wind area there but that is the result of a mobile feature (a trof mostly). Maybe some doldrums but there will be wind there if you wait a little while so it isn't like the Doldrums where you might grow old or run out of water waiting for a breeze, say.

Kind of related, the islands they are looking at are mostly big and high and make a big hole in the wind (and make their own wx). The conservative approach would be to go East of Vanuatu and New Cal. West of the Solomons seems like a huge risk to me. The key, I think, is how the H develops which will define the approaches to NZ.

Attached Files

•  vor wpac doldrums.png   607.84K   30 downloads

[moody frog]

FWIW: a GPMA analysis (yesterday) of the decision to be made about where to cross the "doldrums" and the implications of that choice.
HERE
Sounds like a key transition.

Yes, I think "that word doesn't mean what I think it means"... Anyway, no disagreement that there is a big transition. And there certainly are doldrums off to the West. But I think that maybe the doldrums that G4 is talking about are not really The Doldrums but rather a light wind transition that is not very much associated with the ITCZ or very permanent. On the chart I've drawn where the ITCZ is assuming it is defined as a pressure minimum and that place has wind. It does look like the choice of how to go around the islands will be complicated by the fact that there may be a light wind area there but that is the result of a mobile feature (a trof mostly). Maybe some doldrums but there will be wind there if you wait a little while so it isn't like the Doldrums where you might grow old or run out of water waiting for a breeze, say.

Kind of related, the islands they are looking at are mostly big and high and make a big hole in the wind (and make their own wx). The conservative approach would be to go East of Vanuatu and New Cal. West of the Solomons seems like a huge risk to me. The key, I think, is how the H develops which will define the approaches to NZ.

Thks, I tend to agree with your "words" analysis.
In any case that was an interesting report from them, going a bit farther than "headlines" news.

Besides that, they constantly mention that actual situation is often not in line with gribs. Must be a lot of head-scratching, finally leading to keeping somehow with the fleet.

[rule69]

Besides that, they constantly mention that actual situation is often not in line with gribs. Must be a lot of head-scratching, finally leading to keeping somehow with the fleet.

Yes, thanks for the link, that was a interesting report. I like their reports. They seem so happy to reveal their thinking. They make themselves easy to like and it is nice to see them doing so well right now.

I'm not at all surprised that the GRIBs aren't reflecting reality very well. The GFS doesn't seem to be as well tuned in the SW Pac as it is in some other areas. I haven't looked at the sat pictures that may be showing CZ activity -- the GFS hints at some of that just SW of the fleet.

[Gert]

I'm not at all surprised that the GRIBs aren't reflecting reality very well. The GFS doesn't seem to be as well tuned in the SW Pac as it is in some other areas.

Almost certainly an issue. It is even an issue in the Canary Islands with weather coming from the South West. We had a major -surprise- torrential shower about 10 years ago here that flooded parts of the capital Santa Cruz killing 7 people. I went to a presentation more than a year later of a chief meteorologist from Madrid who explained that they have a lot less data points on the Tropical North Atlantic than they have from anywhere else, making their predictions much less reliable if the weather systems come in from there. It seems that the same could be true for the Pacific.

[mr_ryano]

So here's what a 500 mile day at the office looks like

Nico's blog says they tore the J2 in half and have put up the J4 but are suffering while repairing it.

Would explain their "oopsie" we're seeing.

Fucking clowns should have put the J3 up. Can't Kiwis count? They should sack Nico now, chuck him overboard and let a chopper pick him up.

Don't have a J3 due to sail restrictions

[mr_ryano]

Epic photo from Nick Dana on ADOR

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[rule69]

^^^ Hey, thanks for the Livestream links. I hadn't looked at them in a while. Just went through each of the team's links and they are full of great stuff. This is Puma's link: http://new.livestrea...ing/events/640. The other teams are available from the menu. ...

Yeah, I know, a little slow on the uptake here, but on the off chance that there's someone behind me I thought it was worth pointing out.

[Rossy]

Was about to say,
Terror knows something we dont,

Most of the boats dont have J3s as far as I knew

So here's what a 500 mile day at the office looks like

Nico's blog says they tore the J2 in half and have put up the J4 but are suffering while repairing it.

Would explain their "oopsie" we're seeing.

Fucking clowns should have put the J3 up. Can't Kiwis count? They should sack Nico now, chuck him overboard and let a chopper pick him up.

Don't have a J3 due to sail restrictions

[J24_guy]

What a horse race! No one is backing down.

I find myself rooting for the Sanya guys. Their budget is but a fraction of Puma's (which I believe i heard is by far the highest of the six boats), but they squeezing every drop of performance out of the old girl. And hardly losing a thing. It would be _spectacular_ if they were to get anything other than last!! Gotta love total underdogs.

I have noticed that Groupama seems to sail better than the others at night. They are somehow staying more attuned to the boat when it's dark. By day, the other guys seem to gain a little. Of course this is really hard to tell, since I am not 100% sure what is being used to determine distance. I can't even begin to fathom how difficult it must be to trim at 20+ knots in big waves in total darkness.

[Swanno (Ohf Shore)]

I bet the crews are glad that they are avoiding this, but it would make for specatular photos. (yes i am aware that it is south of Auckland, but it has 60 knots in the middle of it)

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[Terrorvision]

Was about to say,
Terror knows something we dont,

Most of the boats dont have J3s as far as I knew

So here's what a 500 mile day at the office looks like

Nico's blog says they tore the J2 in half and have put up the J4 but are suffering while repairing it.

Would explain their "oopsie" we're seeing.

Fucking clowns should have put the J3 up. Can't Kiwis count? They should sack Nico now, chuck him overboard and let a chopper pick him up.

Don't have a J3 due to sail restrictions

My sarcasm definitely didn't come across- even to me when I reread my own post.

[Evo]

My sarcasm definitely didn't come across- even to me when I reread my own post.

as it was out of kilter compared to most of your posts....had a guess you were being so.

<sarcasm>....</sarcasm> These help

[jc172528]

What a horse race! No one is backing down.

I find myself rooting for the Sanya guys. Their budget is but a fraction of Puma's (which I believe i heard is by far the highest of the six boats), but they squeezing every drop of performance out of the old girl. And hardly losing a thing. It would be _spectacular_ if they were to get anything other than last!! Gotta love total underdogs.

I have noticed that Groupama seems to sail better than the others at night. They are somehow staying more attuned to the boat when it's dark. By day, the other guys seem to gain a little. Of course this is really hard to tell, since I am not 100% sure what is being used to determine distance. I can't even begin to fathom how difficult it must be to trim at 20+ knots in big waves in total darkness.

If Mike was first into AKL it would be epic!!!!!!!!!!

[jc172528]

So here's what a 500 mile day at the office looks like

Nico's blog says they tore the J2 in half and have put up the J4 but are suffering while repairing it.

Would explain their "oopsie" we're seeing.

Fucking clowns should have put the J3 up. Can't Kiwis count? They should sack Nico now, chuck him overboard and let a chopper pick him up.

Don't have a J3 due to sail restrictions

Who's a boobie
Trust me we can count....it's that bloody Aussie navigator we got

[Te Kooti]

I bet the crews are glad that they are avoiding this, but it would make for specatular photos. (yes i am aware that it is south of Auckland, but it has 60 knots in the middle of it)

And is forecast to come north tomorrow.

It is already blowing hard in the Bay of Plenty.

[dogwatch]

I can't even begin to fathom how difficult it must be to trim at 20+ knots in big waves in total darkness.

Mostly there is not "total darkness". There's normally enough light to see a curl on the edge of a spinnaker. Humans have to some extent traded night for colour vision but our night vision is still better than most urbanised people have much opportunity to experience.

[J24_guy]

New sked just in. No real change. Mike S. was right, Sanya is slipping about one mile each hour, even though they have a little more wind than the other guys. One thing I noticed: check out how utterly straight Puma's track is -- that's pretty amazing. It literally looks like the work of an autopilot. All the other boats have at least minor zigs and zags, but Puma's track is as straight as a string. Groupama looks awfully good. They lead by, what, about 3% of the remaining distance. By no means insurmountable, but they do seem to have their boot on the throat of the fleet. No one has gauge on them and the western guys are eventually going to have to point a little higher. Puma's 4 hours' dead astern but their position looks pretty decent too. I want to see how Cape gets out of this one because the western edge of the fleet doesn't seem -- to this country rube, at least -- like a good place at all.

[Expedition]

New sked just in. No real change. Mike S. was right, Sanya is slipping about one mile each hour, even though they have a little more wind than the other guys. One thing I noticed: check out how utterly straight Puma's track is -- that's pretty amazing. It literally looks like the work of an autopilot. All the other boats have at least minor zigs and zags, but Puma's track is as straight as a string. Groupama looks awfully good. They lead by, what, about 3% of the remaining distance. By no means insurmountable, but they do seem to have their boot on the throat of the fleet. No one has gauge on them and the western guys are eventually going to have to point a little higher. Puma's 4 hours' dead astern but their position looks pretty decent too. I want to see how Cape gets out of this one because the western edge of the fleet doesn't seem -- to this country rube, at least -- like a good place at all.

... and dont' forget the 3 western boats have a situation with the Solomons ...

[thetruth]

Maybe the rig and sail package (he has equity in Future Fibres and Doyle Sails) is slow? But hey you can always use the "it's an old boat line"

New sked just in. No real change. Mike S. was right, Sanya is slipping about one mile each hour, even though they have a little more wind than the other guys. One thing I noticed: check out how utterly straight Puma's track is -- that's pretty amazing. It literally looks like the work of an autopilot. All the other boats have at least minor zigs and zags, but Puma's track is as straight as a string. Groupama looks awfully good. They lead by, what, about 3% of the remaining distance. By no means insurmountable, but they do seem to have their boot on the throat of the fleet. No one has gauge on them and the western guys are eventually going to have to point a little higher. Puma's 4 hours' dead astern but their position looks pretty decent too. I want to see how Cape gets out of this one because the western edge of the fleet doesn't seem -- to this country rube, at least -- like a good place at all.

[notallhere]

I have noticed that Groupama seems to sail better than the others at night. They are somehow staying more attuned to the boat when it's dark.

It's a genetic thing with the french. Their amazing ability to peer through the darkness was developed whilst "hiding in the underground" during a few wars.......just to clarify, that's sarcasm.....

[oioi]

any suggestions why ADOR footed off to get round the island in their way rather than headed up?

My guess is they didnt want to seal in a loss to puma and groupama, but it seems to me they have given away some advantage to the rest of the fleet.

[mr_ryano]

any suggestions why ADOR footed off to get round the island in their way rather than headed up?

My guess is they didnt want to seal in a loss to puma and groupama, but it seems to me they have given away some advantage to the rest of the fleet.

I think they were dealing with the jib tack ram at the time. Here's Ian's email off the boat

We are now about halfway into our drag race across the trade winds and the wind has been starting to abate. It’s not that it has been particularly windy - perhaps averaging 22 knots, but we have been sailing at 90 degrees to the wind which is fast and the exact angle to propel all the water straight over the deck and whoever is standing in its way.

The toll is starting to add up both in minor impact injuries to crew (ribs, legs etc) and minor breakages to the boat. Our most major breakage yesterday was the jib tack ram which snapped clean in half. Fortunately we had a safety line in place to save the jib and Justin and Bubs have been able to rig up a jury system that seems to be holding so far. The whole event cost us about 10 miles. Otherwise most of the issues are minor but very annoying. The toilet blocked last night - not a nice job for two people bouncing around in there.

All but three drinks bottles have washed away and some minor but persistent leaks have lead to a minor electrical fire (Nick's lap top charger) and some less than desirable conditions below. Jules and my shared bunk has two nice water features over it. One drips on your head every 30 seconds and the other builds up a nice pool of water that is tipped onto you at waist height every time the boat over heels! It's a good job it is warm and the sleeping bags are made of goretex.

None of this can prepare you for the conditions on deck however and harness lines have been mandatory for a couple of days. It is hard to move around and real care must be taken when moving from the hatch to the 'safe zone' in the back windward corner. In the racing we have been going well, gaining miles on our nearest boats, but it will get harder from here on as we will lose the benefit of more lifted wind in the east. It feels great to be right in the mix and it also feels good to see the estimated time of arraival coming forward all the time to Auckland thanks to some potentially favourable weather. In summary Azzam is slightly bruised but still charging along well.

[clamslapper]

Wow, the conditions on those boats sound insane. And it's day after day after day ...

I think it's fair to say that Camper is sucking again. Lame quote on the VOR website about how their jib failure made them lose 16 miles. ALL the boats have had hardships and equipment problems, e.g. ADOR with its jib cunno ram. I think the tension on Camper will reach a breaking point -- Nico has about as much of a sense of humor as a Marine drill sergeant -- and then things will lapse into sullenness for weeks to come. Those guys just can't seem to get the job done, and tellingly it's one excuse after another. Plus their track is more jagged than anyone else's -- who's steering the thing?

Puma is closing pretty fast. It seems that as the wind veers a little, Groupama's advantage -- boy can that boat power-beam-reach! -- lessens just a little. If Puma can keep gaining ~2 miles per sked, they could actually pull this one off, and what an epic victory it would be.

I don't see how the westward boats can threaten until way after the Solomons -- they are a little bit stuck, navigation-wise. But of course writing off Telefonica is a bit foolhardy.

[Scotty3934]

I bet the crews are glad that they are avoiding this, but it would make for specatular photos. (yes i am aware that it is south of Auckland, but it has 60 knots in the middle of it)
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• 

The round NZ lads will be able to fill em in on how it is, they are gona get smacked by that pretty soon. Check the link..


My link

[KingMonkey]

But of course writing off Telefonica is a bit foolhardy.

Frankly, I find the way that Telefonica is hanging in their to the West, steering higher than everyone else (although they have had a bit of a lift of a couple of degrees for 24 hours) and going the same speed quite scary.

[smackdaddy]

I bet the crews are glad that they are avoiding this, but it would make for specatular photos. (yes i am aware that it is south of Auckland, but it has 60 knots in the middle of it)
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• 

The round NZ lads will be able to fill em in on how it is, they are gona get smacked by that pretty soon. Check the link..


My link

Looks like several boats are running for cover. Can't blame them. That thing looks nasty.

[Who's your daddy]

Really surprised how so many people are slagging Camper off so much. They are in second place still. Might not be good enough for their own expectations, but they are still in second place.

[valor]

latest sched....16:00 UTC what's up with ADOR? Their boat speed numbers are way off. Average speed 15.9 knots, instant speed 12 knots....all while the reported wind speed is 17.6 and sailing at same angles....similar to all in the fleet. Another breakage??

[KingMonkey]

latest sched....16:00 UTC what's up with ADOR? Their boat speed numbers are way off. Average speed 15.9 knots, instant speed 12 knots....all while the reported wind speed is 17.6 and sailing at same angles....similar to all in the fleet. Another breakage??

It's concerning. . . they've been consistently fastest for about 36 hours.

[IBro]

latest sched....16:00 UTC what's up with ADOR? Their boat speed numbers are way off. Average speed 15.9 knots, instant speed 12 knots....all while the reported wind speed is 17.6 and sailing at same angles....similar to all in the fleet. Another breakage??

It's concerning. . . they've been consistently fastest for about 36 hours.

looks like everybody is experiancing the same fluky condition as groupama... described on their web page
There's been a major change in the past hour since we're only making ten knots of boat speed! It's impossible to anticipate such phenomena: some of the clouds which are crossing our path contain strong squalls of over thirty knots and others less than ten knots. In any case, right now you just have to focus on going straight: we can't avoid them and there is likely to be some concertinaing of the boats according to the cloud mass.

"