3834 replies to this topic

[us7070]

Canadian model at 1 degree res, but hard to get at sea
UKMet at 2.5 degree res, but also hard to get at sea
NOGAPS at 1 degree
GFS at 0.5 degree and easy to get

Very interesting. It would appear the GFS has a chance of modelling the most accurate position of the front?

Accuracy of resolution =/* accuracy of forecast.
(*necessarily)

Is there somewhere to get real time sat photos?




ETA - this isn't too bad.

http://www.sat24.com...e=false&index=9

I'm pretty sure they all want to use rout optimizing software - so they will need a model forecast in addition to other resources.

I'm not familiar with Southern Ocean navigation, and am not up on what model is preferred down there.

GFS is an excellent global model - and it is very easy to get at sea.

I a mot aware of a _free_ and _public_ service that will chop and combine either the UK Met or the Canadian models for delivery over reduced bandwidth.

Even with big bandwidth satellite communications, these files can be big - you have to download the whole domain - and the process is cumbersome because, for example, for the CMC (canadian) model, each valid time is a separate file.

There are services that will make this easy, but as far as I know, none are free.

[aquila]

man there are a lot of ice gates this time around, why not just send them through bass straight and cook straight and be done with it. lol

[Presuming Ed]

I'm pretty sure they all want to use rout optimizing software - so they will need a model forecast in addition to other resources.

Absolutely.

AIUI, one of the trickier things to do is model really accurately the movement of a front. So I assume that they're comparing the forecasts to the sat photos, to compare real life and the model.

[flojo]

One thing i don't understand about the course shown on the VG tracker is the orthodromic route they show implies that Gough Island is to be left to port rather than starboard. It's a bit of a pain for looking at the tracker... What's the rule about the gates? Do they just have to touch the gate line or cross is from a specific direction or what?

From the VG website -

An Ice Gate is a segment on a given latitude, defined between two longitudes. The space between the longitudes is around 400 miles, the equivalent of one and a half day of sailing. There are four to six, or sometimes seven gates along the route and they are spaced out between 800 and 2,000 miles. In order to validate their crossing, skippers only need to sail through the gate from north to south, from south to north, or just keeping sailing north.

More.

Must be something lost in translation; I understand "sail through the gate from north to south, from south to north" but not sure what "or just keeping sailing north" means. Does it mean keep completely north of the gate?

You just have to be at least once above the gate line.

[Damers]

Railmeat: Great answer, thx.

[popo]

Quite sure none of what you are going to eat will taste as described !



Grandpa (with his blanket on the knees) shows us how to speed !



wild and wet heart !



Party Boy



16 knots washing machine



Fast and furious

[us7070]

I'm pretty sure they all want to use rout optimizing software - so they will need a model forecast in addition to other resources.

Absolutely.

AIUI, one of the trickier things to do is model really accurately the movement of a front. So I assume that they're comparing the forecasts to the sat photos, to compare real life and the model.

They probably do use satellite images.

But, t's not that easy to locate a front with precision from a satellite image, because clouds do not have a consistent position with respect to fronts. the tall clouds can be very near the surface front, or 100nm ahead of it - or more

IR is better than visible

The satellite data I would use for locating fronts is from the scatterometer, but there aren't many passes a day, and it's not available in GRIB format. As sailors, we are more interested in where the wind shift is than where the air mass boundary is.

They do use the scatterometer data to initialize the GFS,

[us7070]

Here is a scatterometer pass from yesterday showing the front (wind shift) very clearly.

Today's passes have missed the actual front

Attached Files

•  WMBas130.png   44.62K   107 downloads

[Speng]

LOLZZZ! I think JLC is liking the filming. You can tell that some skippers like it and some can't be too arsed (I think JPD has the fewest clips so far). I like how Jean does it tho, just sit at le barre, faire le voile, et parlez un peu de merde :-D. It's fun for us to watch and he probably doesn't have to do any editing...

Tracking front isn't easy. Here in the US the weather forecasters can be 4 -5 hours off on a 24 hr forecast to some extent the apparent accuracy of the forecast is because on land we're typically not relying on forecasts out to more than about 6 hours which are constantly updated with great detail and resolution by data from weather stations, Doppler radar etc. In the S Atlantic all they have are models updated by 1 or two weather buoys and a scattering of weather stations. They have radar/infrared/quick-scat satellites but my guess is that above 30 degrees south the coverage is not the same as say in the N Atlantic as the waters aren't so commercially important.

My guess is the trick over the next short time will be to shave Gough as close as possible and continue on on port gybe for a bit before coming up toward the gate balancing the desire to stay in the strong NW breeze ahead of the ridge and the need to head east to stay ahead of it. Over the next 30 hours the forecast (from the VG tracker) is for the ridge to move east ~600 miles while somehow the gate (especially the wast side of it) is going to be under the high consistently with fack all breeze. The fleet probably won't be able to stay ahead of the ridge with Bubi getting swallowed up first. The wind behind the ridge is to be SSW and lighter than in front of it but building and clocking W so I reckon the boat's courses will be more easterly and then they'll progressively be able to head more south. So the guys more south and west (FG and JPD) are banking on riding the stronger NW for a shorter period of time before the ridge while ALC and AT will ride softer NWerlies longer. i reckon though the guys in the south will make out because the shift will be more advantageous and steady once they get it.

[flojo]

Bernard Stamm has now switched to turbo mode: 21.9 in 1h, 84.4 in 4h

[flojo]

... and Gabart and Dick are continuously smashing the 24h solo record: 470+ and counting.....

[Presuming Ed]

popo, petole, can be; dead calm.

I've always called it a flat calm.

Piss on a plate!

Harry Flatters

Just remembered another one. Flat as a witches tit.

[popo]

Heeeey !
Alex can say goodbye to his record apparently ?

[mad]

popo, petole, can be; dead calm.

I've always called it a flat calm.

Piss on a plate!

Harry Flatters

Just remembered another one. Flat as a witches tit.

'Flat motherless calm' was another

[Estar]

I am impressed with the job BP has done, once his wind filled in, coming south and covering the fleet. And the forecast near the ice gate has shifted to favor his route more (than it did previously). He is now dead even with VBP toi the ice gate. There a few days coming of just seeing who can sail the fastest.

11/30  1130.jpg   132.77K   66 downloads

But on the 2nd, there is the potential for some soft spots to develop, as ridges extending east from the high. These are going to be hard to predict and shift around a bit, but avoiding them will be important - so its going to be forecast to forecast routing. Skipper met skills will pay off here. Right now, the lead two can keep wind on a short route almost direct to the gate, others may have to dive further south to keep the wind.

12/02  1202.jpg   128.61K   57 downloads

[steinbrenner]

two questions:

1 i noticed that gabart's record is measured between 11 am 29th and 11 am 30th which are exact times for skippers to give their positions for official ranking, but what if he made the record breaking distance between 12:32 29th and 12:32 30th, does that count for the record? is it being measured continuously anyway?

2 iin case of dead race between two boats last 50 or 100 miles to the finish line, lets say they are separated by no more than a mile, are the skippers allowed to get rid of unneccesary ballast, for example a spinnaker if sailing upwind, in order to be lighter? or spilling diesel in the sea?(: extra food and water? better example would be sailing downwind so no need for ballast on the windward side

[Estar]

two questions:

1 i noticed that gabart's record is measured between 11 am 29th and 11 am 30th which are exact times for skippers to give their positions for official ranking, but what if he made the record breaking distance between 12:32 29th and 12:32 30th, does that count for the record? is it being measured continuously anyway?

Yes

2 iin case of dead race between two boats last 50 or 100 miles to the finish line, lets say they are separated by no more than a mile, are the skippers allowed to get rid of unneccesary ballast, for example a spinnaker if sailing upwind, in order to be lighter? or spilling diesel in the sea?(: extra food and water? better example would be sailing downwind so no need for ballast on the windward side

No. Dumping almost anything would be polution and against the rules, but . . . would they get caught 100nms out?

[steinbrenner]

They could be checked at least for missing sails. So polluting, throwing anything in the sea is forbidden by the rules?

[Trickypig]

I am impressed with the job BP has done, once his wind filled in, coming south and covering the fleet. And the forecast near the ice gate has shifted to favor his route more (than it did previously). He is now dead even with VBP toi the ice gate. There a few days coming of just seeing who can sail the fastest.

I'm guessing he was concentrating very hard on sailing as low as he could without dropping speed ... maybe a lot of hand steering?

11/30  1130.jpg   132.77K   66 downloads

But on the 2nd, there is the potential for some soft spots to develop, as ridges extending east from the high. These are going to be hard to predict and shift around a bit, but avoiding them will be important - so its going to be forecast to forecast routing. Skipper met skills will pay off here. Right now, the lead two can keep wind on a short route almost direct to the gate, others may have to dive further south to keep the wind.

They're probably going to hit the western end of the gate like a mark.

12/02  1202.jpg   128.61K   57 downloads

Thank you all the knowledgeable contributors here ... I'm googling away on all the references and learning stuff.

[Carboninit]

Now it's getting intresting. Dick is setting himself up for the new weather system before the first gate and new breeze coming from the south. He will be the windward boat. He is sailing lower than Macif etc. Respect .Game on.Who will miss the new weather system?

[onimod]

lead change (according to the leaderboard) - JPD hits the front
The forecast suggests it might get a bit light as they hit the west end of the mark around 18hrs from now.

[r.finn]

Amazing! These guys are really bringing their game this year. I hope the Volvo guys are taking note of how exciting a round the world race can be. And big props to Alex for having a record that stood for almost ten years, basically set in Tanguy's sistership. Fantastic racing.

[AMMMTV]

You can watch Vendée Globe LIVE everyday at 1130 GMT/UTC on The Huffington Post.

The english version is at midday.

http://www.huffingto..._b_2217757.html

If you want the embed code to embed it in your own sites it is:

<iframe frameborder="0" width="480" height="270" src="http://www.dailymoti...q"></iframe><br /><a href="http://www.dailymoti...rancaise_sport" target="_blank">Vend&eacute;e Globe Live (direct, version fran&ccedil;aise)</a> <i>par <a href="http://www.dailymoti.../VendeeGlobeTV" target="_blank">VendeeGlobeTV</a></i>

[Estar]

Tightly packed front group of 5 (VPD, BP, Ma, CP, HB) - intense boat speed and tactical game going on there.

Second following group of 3 (SC, G, Mi), they may fall further back with lighter winds.

12/02 Front pack should keep decent winds but following pack will flirt with light air ridge from high. (green vbp, pink SC)
Note: the location of these ridges and their wind strengths on 12/02 & 12/03 are difficult to forecast - will be a bit of a guessing game.

 1202.jpg   134.42K   74 downloads

12/03 Front group may slow at ice gate due to ridge, as following pack goes a bit south for wind.

 1203.jpg   136.62K   81 downloads

12/04 both groups in good winds due to low passing in the deep south

 1204.jpg   134.57K   80 downloads

12/06 high pressure may park at crozet ice gate and could cause a restart.

 1206.jpg   145.19K   57 downloads

[forss]

502.53 miles!

Amazing JPD

[Estar]

Here are a couple ways to look at the routing for the front pack (this is from JPD's position).

The width of the gray area represents how much weather risk there is to the route - wide means less risk, narrow means that a little change to the forecast could produce a big routing change. You can see it gets narrow as it nears the first ice gate - indicting the risk with the high pressure ridge (and in fact the routing right there has changed a little with the latest gfs run). And that it is very fat with little risk for almost all the route to the crozet gate, except near the end where the possibility of the high pressure system creates some risk.

 reverse.jpg   292.6K   168 downloads

Here teh wind map is colored to show the wind strength when the boat would be there - dark blue = no wind, yellow/orange = medium wind, red=high winds. To the route to the first gate you can see the light blue (high pressure ridge) below the route and gradually shifting up until it hits it right near the gate. And on the second part of the route you can see it skimming the edge of the strongest winds to the south (while keeping as direct a course as possible) until it again runs into a high near the gate.
 wind1.jpg   89.95K   205 downloads

And here there are two white lines added for 2nd and 3nd best routes given random errors in the forecast. On the first leg the wite lines are either side of the main route suggesting it is a good bet, while on the 2nd leg both white lines are below the main route suggesting possibly erroring to the south.

 options.jpg   167.79K   164 downloads

[Trickypig]

I think the high is going to split the two packs big time. If the lead pack can make the Crozet ice gate before the high and head south the others are going to struggle.

I hadn't realised how low in latitude the Crojet `ice gate' was.

[diggler]

Estar, that last post has really expanded my insight into how you can use a routing tool, thanks!

[Estar]

I hadn't realised how low in latitude the Crojet `ice gate' was.

The ice there does come right up there. Its amazing that no-one ever hit any in the 'old days' before they could see the packs with sat pics.

When we did this route, we arced up to 39S, which is right where they have put the crozet gate.

We found a 4kt favorable (warm) current along 39S right under cape hope (a counter current to the agulhas). We were running with 40kts dead behind and 4kts of current and 25c temps (terrific after the cold near south georgia) Not sure how many of these racers know it is there because they typically plan to go further south to save distance.

[STYACHT]

Estar, that last post has really expanded my insight into how you can use a routing tool, thanks!

+1

[Philen]

Any Info on what's happening to Jean LeCam on SynerCiel?

[moody frog]

Any Info on what's happening to Jean LeCam on SynerCiel?

From the first minute of the live-feed:

Synerciel had caught a drifting fishing-net in her keel.
With no way to get off-it, Jean le Cam had to stop, and ...... scuba-dive !!!! to cut if off mesh by mesh.
He has now resumed sailing.

Not all talks, JLC !

[Estar]

Front pack of 3 boats (BP, VBP, & M). They continue to go a bit faster than I had expected, so I have bumped their polars up another 5%.

Basic strategy looks to be to head SW to hook up with and ride along with a southern ocean low. Here, on 12/03 they latch on to the front of the low.

 1203.jpg   130.95K   62 downloads

And continue to ride it on 12/04 - note if they go 'too fast' they run out of wind, so there is only a limited opportunity for those in the front pack to get ahead of the others.

 1204.jpg   131.78K   81 downloads

Right now, they get to the Crozet ice gate riding along on the low, inbetween two high pressure systems.

 1205.jpg   135.27K   79 downloads

The second group (SC, Mi, & G - purple line) looks like they will lose some time this leg, having to sail a longer distance, and running into the high near the crozet gate.

 back.jpg   160.7K   66 downloads

[popo]

Thanks again Evans.
Any big differences between (BP, VBP, M) and (CP and HB) or even between M and BP ?

late translation and new ones, all at the same time



Le Cam is fishing !



At the Vendee live, he was really pissed off, cause he wasn't able to steer cause there's no sheltered helm on his boat, and he said that he would be able to go faster if he was steering



a fast swiss ! rare !



Armel geeking !



happy happy and happy again !



Stamm, Thomson, Tanguy, Alessandro ... those hydrogenerators seems really not fit for open 60 !



another singlehanded sailor loosing his mind !



great footage ! amazing view !



wow ! by the look of this wake, the golden boy is not ready to give up his first place !

[Rail Meat]

Thanks again Evans.
Any big differences between (BP, VBP, M) and (CP and HB) or even between M and BP ?

late translation and new ones, all at the same time



Le Cam is fishing !



At the Vendee live, he was really pissed off, cause he wasn't able to steer cause there's no sheltered helm on his boat, and he said that he would be able to go faster if he was steering



a fast swiss ! rare !



Armel geeking !



happy happy and happy again !



Stamm, Thomson, Tanguy, Alessandro ... those hydrogenerators seems really not fit for open 60 !



another singlehanded sailor loosing his mind !



great footage ! amazing view !



wow ! by the look of this wake, the golden boy is not ready to give up his first place !

Taguy was fixing the line used to haul the hyrdo generator down and into place when deploying it. The design is meant to kick up, with a bracket on the top of the generator foil that is attached to the boat, and then two lines. One line is used to haul it down into place, the other to haul it up when you want to get it out of the water.

Frankly, while the generators are fantastic, the mounting system stinks. The haul down requires a tremendous amount of force, as the pressure of the water wants to kick the rudder back out of the water. I have a purchase system that is something line 18:1 to get it into place, and then I use a spinlock pxr to lock it off. The line system routinely parts because of the amount of pressure and chafe, which is what happened to Tanguy here. And then you have the challenge of how to attach the mount to the transom.

Working with Bruce Cathcart and Kristin Wenzel of Race Rock Associates, we have gone through two generations of the mount system on Dragon. The third generation is sitting on the bench, ready to get anodized. I think we have a winner.... it definitely won't have the kind of issue that Tanguy just had.

[Big Show]

Any word on Dick's record? Have they fine-tuned the distance?

500 miles+ solo. What the hell is going on!?!?

Between this and Sailrocket my head is going to explode. I'm just happy to be alive to see what I'm seeing in sailing - mind blowing stuff.

God so loved the world he gave us carbon fibre. And people who love to send it. An awesome mix.

[ice9a]

Thanks again Evans.

A Big thanks to you for the captions.

Any big differences between (BP, VBP, M) and (CP and HB) or even between M and BP ?

Routes for the leading 5 boats below ( M purple, VBP black, BP red, HB blue, G green). In this routing M is about an hour in front of VBP who is about an hour in front of BP . . . but that means its up for grabs depending on the skippers driving the boats. G is about a day and a half behind.

 vendee.jpg   135.37K   47 downloads

[JaredC]

Initiatives Coeur says "Le Pinguoin" on the transom - is that a French company/sponsor? Brad Van Liew's boat in the last Velux Race was named Le Pinguoin.

[hbsurfer]

I have to say, every day my admiration for these racers increases. 500 mile solo days, are you kidding me? Just think all the different skills involved in weather routing. Would be a great lesson for kids today about why things like math are important.

Dumb newbie question, when topside what % of the time are they strapped on the lifeline, I see all the cockpit videos and never seen them with a harness.

[popo]

Routes for the leading 5 boats below ( M purple, VBP black, BP red, HB blue, G green). In this routing M is about an hour in front of VBP who is about an hour in front of BP . . . but that means its up for grabs depending on the skippers driving the boats. G is about a day and a half behind.

So Alex who is the most north of the fleet is going to have to deep the more, quite painful it seems ?

Initiatives Coeur says "Le Pinguoin" on the transom - is that a French company/sponsor? Brad Van Liew's boat in the last Velux Race was named Le Pinguoin.

It's the same boat. They probably didn't changed the boat name, it's known to be bad luck, otherwise you gotta cut your wake seven time and fire a gunshot each time to be alowed to change the name (if y remember correctly the customs)

[forss]

Initiatives Coeur says "Le Pinguoin" on the transom - is that a French company/sponsor? Brad Van Liew's boat in the last Velux Race was named Le Pinguoin.

Same boat.
http://www.histoiredeshalfs.com/Histoire%20des%2060%27/A18.htm

[popo]

Awesome Jean Le Cam !



raging bull ! absolut madness !



here we go again !



The old dog is still quite shocked !

Must admit, it's quite impressive to see him like this. After all he has been through during his career, this one seems to have been a hard one !

[moody frog]

Awesome Jean Le Cam !



raging bull ! absolut madness !



here we go again !



The old dog is still quite shocked !

Must admit, it's quite impressive to see him like this. After all he has been through during his career, this one seems to have been a hard one !

Yes ! impressive, one has to be fit and punchy to even attempt this at nearly 54.

Jean is definitely an old-salt, I find his preparation brilliant, specially the trailing-rope supported by any floating device on board (including the survival suit), true seamanship.

One of these vids is worth the front-page.

[popo]

the kid is at the zoo !
(judging by the wake, he is on a fast tour !)

[popo]

Armel is like a machine. military voice tune, no real emotion shown, but damn efficient !



the Dick makes it short ....

[longy]

There is a statement on the Vendee site that Le Cam does not like swimming, so to go diving in the middle of the ocean must have been stressful. Impressed that he even carried dive gear, perhaps getting garbage stuck around the keel is fairly common?

[jrenedo]

It might help to understand the icegates

[JaredC]

It's the same boat. They probably didn't changed the boat name, it's known to be bad luck, otherwise you gotta cut your wake seven time and fire a gunshot each time to be alowed to change the name (if y remember correctly the customs)

Cool, I wondered if that might be the case. I crawled around that boat with my kids last year when it was here - interesting to see the changes in construction and rigging since the old BOC Challenge boats came through 15+ years ago.

[Marvin]

Awesome Jean Le Cam !



raging bull ! absolut madness !



here we go again !



The old dog is still quite shocked !

Must admit, it's quite impressive to see him like this. After all he has been through during his career, this one seems to have been a hard one !

After losing Sam, I figured, so much for the videos... Le Cam has made up for it! For him to take the time to share this stuff with everyone is simply brilliant!

Vive le roi Jean! Allez, putain...

[Speng]

These videos are making this VG the best ever. you wonder who is getting the better value for their sponsor ship euro: Synerciel or Banque Populaire?

I suppose they don't drug test the sailors after the race because I reckon salad isn't the only green on some of the boats although I reckon TdL might be on some of that new school stuff the kids are taking nowadays! I'm sure the ladies like them shapes he was making...

IIRC Tanguy was one of the first to take a water generator on one of these boats so it is surprising that he's still having trouble but some of the other skippers are possibly having issues other than just holding them down based on the reports. The Watt and Sea page claim 500W (which is a lot) at 12 knots so the drag from that alone is ~80N but you also have to consider the forces by the boat's various motions in the water so it could be similar to a decent sized rudder in terms of forces... The holdown bracket they show on their page looks pretty wimpy

[Speng]

BTW here is a link to a video about the hydros http://www.cruisingw...ydro-generators

[ronnie_simpson]

I suppose they don't drug test the sailors after the race because I reckon salad isn't the only green on some of the boats

wrong. IMOCA class sailors do get drug tested now and while i'm not 100% sure what the consequences would be or the likelihood of getting caught, not a single skipper in the fleet admitted to smoking weed during the vendee.

even off the record, the preparateurs said "yeah, none of the skippers can smoke pot during VG any more..."

[Trickypig]

I've been looking at these videos and I notice on some boats the water coming over the deck pours onto the grinder and tillers and on others they don't. All the skippers talk about how much they are trimming to stay competitive so it surprises me that at least for this 3 months of racing, of which more than half is spent in the Southern Ocean, they don't have slightly better protection.

[Estar]

Not much change in the weather situation since yesterday.

The lead pack will hook onto a southern ocean low and zoom to Crozet.
You can see the just hooking on here (this is BP).

12/03  2003.jpg   201.5K   32 downloads

And keep it all the way to the next crozet gate, while a high will fill in behind and cause problems for the followers. HB should just make it in front of the but the golding & co group look like they will be trapped at the crozet gate.

12/05  1205.jpg   197.08K   47 downloads

Here is Golding (blue line/square) getting run over by the high early 12/06. HB is already past the gate (yellow line).

12/06  1206.jpg   86.58K   60 downloads

By the way, out of curiosity, I compared the routing for BP using the Adrana package (one of the top pro routing packages, used by many of the french) with the Virtual winds routing. The routes are pretty much the same, although this is a simple weather pattern and not very tricky to route: (note the adrana display looks better full screen while running the program, but the VW certaintly makes a better color picture for postings)

Adrana:  BPADRANA.jpg   231.07K   69 downloads

Virtual Winds  BPvw.jpg   88.23K   47 downloads

[steinbrenner]

isnt it a bit strange that a sailor of le cam calibre didnt notice less speed for given sails configuration and wind&sea conditions without looking at official rankings?

will somebody explain what he uses ropes and floating equipment for when scuba diving beneath the boat? is it serving as a sea anchor to reduce drifting and to make the boat stand still?

[popo]

isnt it a bit strange that a sailor of le cam calibre didnt notice less speed for given sails configuration and wind&sea conditions without looking at official rankings?

will somebody explain what he uses ropes and floating equipment for when scuba diving beneath the boat? is it serving as a sea anchor to reduce drifting and to make the boat stand still?

The lack of speed happened over night. he wasn't able to see the keel then.
After he lost quite a lot of time trying to avoid diving under the boat, so he tried a reverse to get rid of the net. He also tried to incline the boat at his max, to try to cut the net with a knife tied on a mainsail batten, but he wasn't able to angle the boat enough.
So he had to dive.

All the floating objects with ropes behind the boat, are for him to be able to catch the boat after diving

[popo]

hairdresser with a view (and what a view) !



did Estar planned this one ?

[oioi]

All the floating objects with ropes behind the boat, are for him to be able to catch the boat after diving

to me the really scary part of what le cam did is not the going over board but the thought of having to climb back on board. you know you will be tired, possibly really cold and facing hauling yourself back onto a heaving and moving beast of a boat. its not surprising he looks so wired after his adventure.

[oioi]

And keep it all the way to the next crozet gate, while a high will fill in behind and cause problems for the followers. HB should just make it in front of the but the golding & co group look like they will be trapped at the crozet gate.

hi estar - cheers for the analysis it is much appreciated. your view differs from alex thomsons, he seems to think that the leaders will park up in the high

At the moment, the rich are getting richer, the guys ahead are extending as I am from the guys behind. Once we all get into the same weather we will go the same speed until the 7^th when the leaders and I will run into a high pressure, slow up and the fleet will compress again. It is like we are attached by a piece of bungy!

as i would like to see the oldies catch up and an 8 way fight, id be happy to see the fleet come back together to see a real battle through the indian ocean.

so far really impressed with AT, he seems to be just about keeping pace with the newer boats in front.

[6times7]

All the floating objects with ropes behind the boat, are for him to be able to catch the boat after diving

to me the really scary part of what le cam did is not the going over board but the thought of having to climb back on board. you know you will be tired, possibly really cold and facing hauling yourself back onto a heaving and moving beast of a boat. its not surprising he looks so wired after his adventure.

the guy is a legend!

50 something years of experience, and diving over the side of his only refuge, in the southern ocean, with a tank strapped on with sail ties - and then finding time to share it with us armchair fans - I've not really followed him too much before but I am developing a huge respect for him as this Vendee goes on

[Estar]

hi estar - cheers for the analysis it is much appreciated. your view differs from alex thomsons, he seems to think that the leaders will park up in the high

At the moment, the rich are getting richer, the guys ahead are extending as I am from the guys behind. Once we all get into the same weather we will go the same speed until the 7^th when the leaders and I will run into a high pressure, slow up and the fleet will compress again. It is like we are attached by a piece of bungy!

I was only been looking to the 5th, when the leaders get past the gate. There is a high forecast moving from west to east with decent speed but not yet at the gate by the 5th.

It is possible that it will engulf the leaders by the 7th, or that there is another system out in front on the 7th that I have not looked at, and allow another compression. BUT that's a long way away and the weather has not been the most predictable.

It seems more likely to me that the back markers will get trapped between the high and the crozet gate and the leaders will have a bit more flexibility to route south and avoid it . . . but . . . the new gate above the kerguelen may limit the front runners routing freedom and ensure they also get trapped.

Its interesting that the ice gates function to prevent boats from breaking away and keep the fleet more together.

Edit . . . here is a picture of BP route (black) on 5/07 including the new amsterdam gate. You can see he passes the crozet gate and goes south to avoid the high, which closes the door behind right over the crozet gate . . . we shall see.

Attached Files

•  507.jpg   133.29K   38 downloads

[Trickypig]

hi estar - cheers for the analysis it is much appreciated. your view differs from alex thomsons, he seems to think that the leaders will park up in the high

At the moment, the rich are getting richer, the guys ahead are extending as I am from the guys behind. Once we all get into the same weather we will go the same speed until the 7^th when the leaders and I will run into a high pressure, slow up and the fleet will compress again. It is like we are attached by a piece of bungy!

I was only been looking to the 5th, when the leaders get past the gate. There is a high forecast moving from west to east with decent speed but not yet at the gate by the 5th.

It is possible that it will engulf the leaders by the 7th, or that there is another system out in front on the 7th that I have not looked at, and allow another compression. BUT that's a long way away and the weather has not been the most predictable.

It seems more likely to me that the back markers will get trapped between the high and the crozet gate and the leaders will have a bit more flexibility to route south and avoid it . . . but . . . the new gate above the kerguelen may limit the front runners routing freedom and ensure they also get trapped.

Its interesting that the ice gates function to prevent boats from breaking away and keep the fleet more together.

Edit . . . here is a picture of BP route (black) on 5/07 including the new amsterdam gate. You can see he passes the crozet gate and goes south to avoid the high, which closes the door behind right over the crozet gate . . . we shall see.

Yes the ice gates seem to pin them up in or just under the highs and make the course `narrower'.

[WetHog]

Intro to the late edition of ESPN Sportcenter just showed 2 short clips of Vendee boats. Guess the Mayan calender is right. The world will be ending soon.

WetHog

[DtM]

Seems like a drag race to the next ice gate with not much sign of anyone diving south.

[Trickypig]

Seems like a drag race to the next ice gate with not much sign of anyone diving south.

Except Alex T who went from furthest north to furthest south. That's a fairly assertive go at getting more breeze. I think he suffers most against the leading 4 in the light stuff.

[moody frog]

isnt it a bit strange that a sailor of le cam calibre didnt notice less speed for given sails configuration and wind&sea conditions without looking at official rankings?

will somebody explain what he uses ropes and floating equipment for when scuba diving beneath the boat? is it serving as a sea anchor to reduce drifting and to make the boat stand still?

The audio interview in yesterday's live gave a few more details on his proceedings;

As others said these ropes were there to catch, should he lose his grip on the boat and drift behind.

He said that he had assessed that tying to the boat would be too dangerous, with the risk of tangling the tether into something and being trapped. He went down along the lowered-down dagger-board wherefrom he could grab the keel and find a new hold.
Despite the boat being bare-headed, anything could have happened and make him lose his hold, he thought.

[hazard121]

Regardless of the situation with the current, if you look at his position in the ocean and have a think of the boat floating away and you being left...wouldn't make me that comfortable either. I would definately put a few lines out - especially with his fears of the water

[popo]

[polarbear]

All the floating objects with ropes behind the boat, are for him to be able to catch the boat after diving

to me the really scary part of what le cam did is not the going over board but the thought of having to climb back on board. you know you will be tired, possibly really cold and facing hauling yourself back onto a heaving and moving beast of a boat. its not surprising he looks so wired after his adventure.

I would think most people who have gone through what this guy has gone through last Vendee would suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder.

[Speng]

That is why he is called Le Roi. I don't mind swimming in open sea but it does take some stones to do that. The floaty bags and stuff off the stern are to grab onto if he's separated from the boat. If you're cruising short handed that's a god tip to have something trailing in case you fall off. I know of a few cases where people have been saved that way.

I suppose they don't drug test the sailors after the race because I reckon salad isn't the only green on some of the boats

wrong. IMOCA class sailors do get drug tested now and while i'm not 100% sure what the consequences would be or the likelihood of getting caught, not a single skipper in the fleet admitted to smoking weed during the vendee.

even off the record, the preparateurs said "yeah, none of the skippers can smoke pot during VG any more..."

I guess the "any more" indicates that there was some sensimillia action in the past eh? I guess if it did still happen the drug of choice would be some kind of stimulant but I guess with all the legal stuff on the market today you wouldn't need anything illegal. I know Pete Goss said that Red Bull was pretty useful during the last RBI he did. I guess an IMOCA sponsored by Five Hour Energy isn't too far behind... maybe a "pay for say" deal like Brad Van Liew and Powerbar...

I reckon the fleet will juggle at some point fairly soon, the Indian Ocean is generally quite tricky particularly this part where you're dodging islands etc and the closely spaced ice gates may cause some compression. Then there's also the feared B word...

[steinbrenner]

So what's alex thomson doing? Now he's going south!? Just feeling there were better moments to do that. Any comments? Estar?

P.s. Thnx for answers about trailing ropes

[Lexpat]

So what's alex thomson doing? Now he's going south!? Any comments? Estar?

Same for me . ..........(hoping it's a bad idea )

[Estar]

Seems like a drag race to the next ice gate with not much sign of anyone diving south.

If you look at my chart from yesterday, it suggested that for the leaders, it should be a drag race to Crozet. The dive south should after the crozet gate. So, so, far, they are pretty much doing as was expected.
WIll look at todays map in just a minute . . . .

[Left Hook]

better breeze and angle for him over the next 24 hours in the south and the movement of the front will eventually set up a good gybe angle for him up to the gate. He's hauling ass - peaked at a speed of over 31 knots.

[alni]

Jean Le Cam did very well. He is clearly a reluctant diver. He even got some video. Oceanic sea water has excellent visiability and he would have felt very small down there.
To go over the side when you have nobody on board to assist is quite a daunting prospect. When you are a few meters down you are stationary in the water but what you are working on moves with the boat. Though I think in this case he kept a grip on the keel. If the boat rolls heavily in a swell he could have moved through quite an arc. There can be issues with a change in air volume in his lungs if he breaths in hard or stops breathing momentarily. He had to hang on do the job . He doesn't appear he had a weight belt. So his wetsuit bouancy would have over come the negative bouancy of his tank. He would have had to resist that to get below the surface. He would have been closer to neutral boancy at 3-4 meters. All the time he is worried about being separated from the boat. This is his biggest danger. He put lines out for this reason.
Absolutely brilliant job

[Estar]

OK, interesting . . . I think there are going to be a very few winners (BP, VBP, Ma) and a lot of losers (including HB) here the next couple days. I can't tell where CP/BS will fall - will depend on his boat speed.

Here is the picture for 12/06. Yellow (top line) is BP. After drag racing right to the gate,he has just passed the Crozet ice gate and is dropping south. Consistent with yesterday.

I have two lines for HB. The green one is the route to the western end of the crozet gate. You see here if he took that route he gets stuck in the high on 12/6. By his current route he is now trying for the eastern end of the gate, which is the Red line.

 1206.jpg   127.78K   108 downloads

Here is 12/07. The high has continued to move and has exactly covered HB, so he again has to go up into its center to cross the gate. This end of the gate is the better choice because the forecast might change.

 1207.jpg   130.13K   109 downloads

12/08 . .. BP is way ahead and HB has finally gotten back into the breeze.

 1208.jpg   116.5K   73 downloads

My routing for CP/BS says he will just barely make it in front of the high, and stay with the front pack, but it's a very very close thing and neither my polars for him nor the forecast are accurate enough to make the call.

[Estar]

I was curious if Adrena routing would say anything significantly different. It does not.

Below, green is BP, essentailly the same route as above - right to the crozet gate and then south and back up to the A gate - 4 days 9hrs

Purple is HB's route to the western end of the Crozet gate and Light blue the route to the eastern end of the ice gate. Adrena says that the purple route (western end of crozet) is 6 days 9hrs and the light blue (Eastern end of crozet) 5 days 14 hrs. So, this says AT is doing the right thing going south right now, but it still must hurt

 adrena.jpg   230.56K   73 downloads

[Speng]

Jean Le Cam did very well. He is clearly a reluctant diver. He even got some video. Oceanic sea water has excellent visiability and he would have felt very small down there.
To go over the side when you have nobody on board to assist is quite a daunting prospect. When you are a few meters down you are stationary in the water but what you are working on moves with the boat. Though I think in this case he kept a grip on the keel. If the boat rolls heavily in a swell he could have moved through quite an arc. There can be issues with a change in air volume in his lungs if he breaths in hard or stops breathing momentarily. He had to hang on do the job . He doesn't appear he had a weight belt. So his wetsuit bouancy would have over come the negative bouancy of his tank. He would have had to resist that to get below the surface. He would have been closer to neutral boancy at 3-4 meters. All the time he is worried about being separated from the boat. This is his biggest danger. He put lines out for this reason.
Absolutely brilliant job

Gripping on the keel isn't all that helpful, I know from my paltry experience diving a J80 in absolutely still water and as he was without a belt or buoyancy compensator he'd have been light the whole time so struggling to stay down. First time i went diving in salt water i forgot to up my weight and couldn't stay down at 30ft even though I was only wearing a 3mm shorty wetsuit and 90% of the weight i ought to have had so simply speaking that dive was a mission for him.

I reckon AT is looking to play a wind angle game over the next <24 hours. The forecast has a bubble of no breeze rolling in from behind (probably faster than he can head east) so he needs to bang the corner and reap his reward right quick before heading back up to the others or else he'll be off south yanking his meat. Potentially good move or total fuckup...

[DtM]

AT's shift south seems to have come an halt at about the latitude of the northern extent of the ice to the west of the Crozet gate.

I suspect he is aiming for the east end of the gate. I hope that his angle will give him enough of a speed increase to make up for the extra miles and turn the front pack into 5.

[Estar]

AT's shift south seems to have come an halt at about the latitude of the northern extent of the ice to the west of the Crozet gate.

I suspect he is aiming for the east end of the gate. I hope that his angle will give him enough of a speed increase to make up for the extra miles and turn the front pack into 5.

Routing course to east end = 86 degrees, to west end = 104 degrees. According to the tracker he is doing 97, so he may be splitting the difference right now.

[Tucky]

I took a sleep course from Claudio Stampi several years ago (with whom a lot of these folks have studied). He said that you might be able to use drugs in a short race like a multihull transatlantic- something like a week- but any longer drugs wouldn't work.

My memory says no one has won the Vendee resting less than 2 hours per day, nor more than six. Some of these folks are much better sleepers than others- Ellen was the best in her day.

[Mud sailor]

Macif out?

[Koh Samia]

Looks like... no news anywhere

[Trickypig]

Macif out?

0 knots on the tracker doesn't look good..

It could be a comms problem .. there is 0 information from the tracker

[ctutmark]

Macif out?

0 knots on the tracker doesn't look good..

It could be a comms problem .. there is 0 information from the tracker

fingers crossed all is ok

[Koh Samia]

Anybody knows what "NL" means as boat position?

[Recidivist]

NL = not located.

Edit: likely a tracker error (I hope), but it's fucking stupid for the rankings to drop FG to last - why not at least continue with her last reported position?

[onimod]

Francois has reappeared on the latest report.
He's been flying along too - 2kts faster over the last 24hrs

[forss]

I found this great data analysis from Kevin Saliou

http://vg2012.saliou.../reports/latest

Click on every boat and see great graphs

[Presuming Ed]

MG's Dover straits TSS violation court case tomorrow.

http://www.yachtingm...aces-100-k-fine

[Damers]

I found this great data analysis from Kevin Saliou

http://vg2012.saliou.../reports/latest

Click on every boat and see great graphs

A+

[Estar]

Forecast changed last night, with the high ridge now forecast to develop more quickly over the crozet gates.

If that happens it would have three outcomes: #1 the eastern end of the crozet gate becomes preferred for everyone, and #2 it would greatly benefit HB and CP, and #3 the Golding pack stays in about the same relative position.

However, from their courses, (at the 12 reporting), no-one is taking decisive action to dive for the eastern gate. Ma was steering a course for the western end. BP, VB,P, & CP were steering "vmg due east" courses perhaps just making miles as they wait to see what will actually happen and HB was spliiting the difference between the east and west gates. So, I would say that the sjippers give low confidence to the forecast details.

The routing programs does not really help us much in this situation, as the forecast is uncertain, as are the boat polars in light winds.

So, we are left waiting to see which of two scenarios will develop - either the high will be just slow enough and the front three just fast enough in lighter winds to escape the trap and close the dorr behind them OR all the boats will be slowed down and the front 5 compress back into one tight group and the back groups stay in about the same position.

[Estar]

I will show some routings here, but don't take them too seriously because #1 the forecast is very uncertain, #2 my polars are probably not at all accurate in light winds, and #3 in the last report the boats were not steering on the fastest routes shown here (going south to the east gate).

That all said it is interesting to see the options the boats are looking at. For each boat I have run three routes - one to the west gate, one to the east gate and one to the middle of the gate.

BP: Total time to the Amsterdam gate via West gate:5d 20h, East gate:5d 15h, Middle:5d 21h
 BP.jpg   132.66K   38 downloads

CP:Total time to the Amsterdam gate via West gate: 5d 22h, East gate:5d 12h, Middle:5d 22h
 cp.jpg   162.79K   46 downloads

HB:Total time to the Amsterdam gate via West gate: 6d 1h, East gate:5d 15h, Middle:5d 20h
 HB.jpg   139.47K   30 downloads

G:Total time to the Amsterdam gate via West gate:6d 8h, East gate:6d 5h, Middle:6d 8h
 G.jpg   165.23K   18 downloads

[popo]

After Alessandro gardening, Alessandro cooking, Alessandro washing, Alessandro hairdressing, here we are with Alessandro shaving !Thanks to the Vendee Globe, we will know everything about Alessandro before the end !



A little bit of tourism with Tanguy



The Golden Boy going pedal to the metal !

[Estar]

And here are some pictures which I think show the current forecast the most clearly. I have shown BP's two route options - East and west gate to provide perspective to the weather features.

5/12 - BP still in wind but you can see the high chasing behind (from the west)
 1205.jpg   139.31K   37 downloads

6/12 - On the route to the western gate BP loses wind as the high catches up, but it still keeps wind on the route to the eastern gate
 1206am.jpg   141.55K   38 downloads

7/12 - stuck right in the middle of the high at the western gate, but still in wind below the high on the way to the eastern gate.
 1207.jpg   142.03K   26 downloads

8/12 - Coming south and just escaping the high at the western gate, just entering the high at the eastern gate, but below the center with still some (light wind)
 1208.jpg   135.12K   21 downloads

9/12 - back in the wind on both routes and a drag race to the A-gate, with the eastern gate route well in front.
 1209.jpg   125.04K   16 downloads

[popo]

you gotta check each solution for the gate manualy ?
the software don't know how to deal with this kind of "marks" ?

[Guillame]

Nice B&W shots.

[Haji]

I took a sleep course from Claudio Stampi several years ago (with whom a lot of these folks have studied). He said that you might be able to use drugs in a short race like a multihull transatlantic- something like a week- but any longer drugs wouldn't work.

My memory says no one has won the Vendee resting less than 2 hours per day, nor more than six. Some of these folks are much better sleepers than others- Ellen was the best in her day.

Back before the 02/03 Around Alone, I was staying at Billy Black's place in Portsmouth and Claudio Stampi came to stay one night (doing some seminar I think). I was upstairs and Claudio was camped out downstairs in the living room...I came down the stairs in the morning and he was snoring impressively. So I got my smartphone and recorded the "sleep doctor": snoring...thought it was pretty funny. So later in the day when we were introduced the first time, I couldn't resist saying "Ah yes, the sleep doctor! I have a recording of you snoring! Ahahaha!".

Of course he looked at me like I was nuts.

[forss]

Alex Thomson going fast


(subtitled )

[ronnie_simpson]

Back before the 02/03 Around Alone, I was staying at Billy Black's place in Portsmouth and Claudio Stampi came to stay one night (doing some seminar I think). I was upstairs and Claudio was camped out downstairs in the living room...I came down the stairs in the morning and he was snoring impressively. So I got my smartphone and recorded the "sleep doctor": snoring...thought it was pretty funny.

im just impressed that you had a smart phone before 2002/ 03, Bruce