3834 replies to this topic

[hbsurfer]

Alex video unbelievable. Toward the end says it is really a bit too stressful as a wave breaks over the boat! fantastic footage.

[Speng]

Is there any current benefit to being further south? I know the Algulhas current rips pretty hard to the west near the South African coast but does it extend out as far as these guys are?

[popo]

Alex Thomson going fast

(subtitled )

not my work

Back before the 02/03 Around Alone, I was staying at Billy Black's place in Portsmouth and Claudio Stampi came to stay one night (doing some seminar I think). I was upstairs and Claudio was camped out downstairs in the living room...I came down the stairs in the morning and he was snoring impressively. So I got my smartphone and recorded the "sleep doctor": snoring...thought it was pretty funny.

im just impressed that you had a smart phone before 2002/ 03, Bruce

hooooo burned !


edit : Alex is the fastest actually for sure, but is VMG is around 2 knots less than the front pack. And he is going to bleed quite a lot of miles to clear the Crozet gate isn't he ?
and he is also going to be flirting with the limit of the icebergs.
For sure he probably had no other choice because of a little bit slower boat, but it seems that next day is going to be painful for him

[Estar]

From the 20:00 positions . . .

BP is obviously going for the western end of the crozet gate. He is steering 82 degrees at 17.3 kts and is currently out-sailing the routing (Which calculates 13.3kts), which indicates there is more breeze up near the west crozet east waypoint than shown in the gfs grib. It will be fascinating to see if he makes it around without getting stopped. The current weather file/routing says he will be stopped sometime about noon tomorrow, and fall just behind HB & CP.

Here is a look at the different routes (to the west gate) resulting if you vary his % of polar, the strength of grib winds, and the timing of the grib winds:

 bp.jpg   144.51K   84 downloads

HB is obviously going for the other (eastern end of the gate) and is doing just about the polar speed. The routing says he should go further south, but there is ice down there (the reason for the gate) so I will guess he will not go much further. By his course I would guess he has set a southern limit of 44S.

If we guess (based on his course) he does not want to go below 44S, here are the range of routes to the (east gate) based on varying his % of polars, and grib wind speed and timing
 HB.jpg   174.2K   97 downloads

CP is steering 84 degrees at 19kts. It's not clear from that what his plan is, but I would guess the eastern end of the gate. HE also appears to have a bit more wind than shown on the gfs gribs.

If we guess (based on his course) he does not want to go below 42S, here are the range of routes to the (east gate) based on varying his % of polars, and grib wind speed and timing.
 CP.jpg   234.81K   62 downloads

Gamesa steering 98 degrees at 5kts . . . . he is in light air, and the routing agrees (5.7kts BS calculated), but the routing says he should be steering 161 to get out of it ASAP. Not sure why he has been staying up so high . . . ice danger?

[popo]

Tanguy de Lamotte is having troubles.
He had a chinese gybe because his autopilot ram has dissociated itself from the rudder.
He has been able to pass on the spare autopilot.
But 4 batten are dissociated from the cars

[Trickypig]

Estar, I'm wondering if that black line is the great circle route between the two points on your charts?

I'm assuming the charts are Mercator and I'm just trying to get a feel for how much of the curve in their projected courses is account for by great circle sailing.

[Estar]

Estar, I'm wondering if that black line is the great circle route between the two points on your charts?

I'm assuming the charts are Mercator and I'm just trying to get a feel for how much of the curve in their projected courses is account for by great circle sailing.

Had to double check.You can toggle it between rumb line and GC, but yes its set for the GC route between the points.

[Estar]

Estar, I'm wondering if that black line is the great circle route between the two points on your charts?

I'm assuming the charts are Mercator and I'm just trying to get a feel for how much of the curve in their projected courses is account for by great circle sailing.

Had to double check.You can toggle it between rumb line and GC, but yes its set for the GC route between the points.

you gotta check each solution for the gate manualy ?
the software don't know how to deal with this kind of "marks" ?

The packages all have windward/leeward gates, but this ice gate is different because you don't have to round either end (as with a W/L gate) . . . you can just cross in the middle if you want. So, if this sort of gate is in the software I have not found it yet, and I am doing it manually . . . .but it's the first time I have worked with these sorts of gates and they may be buried somewhere or there may be a work around I am not aware of.

The fact that they can be below the ice gates, makes the location of the actual ice a factor, and the risk one is willing to take with it, a factor in the routing. It seems that AT has a higher risk acceptance in this regard than MG or BS.

[popo]

Is that possible that Alex has been "trapped" by the wind, boat speed and sea, and wasn't in any way able to gybe back to the gate earlier because of boat handling ?
It's seems more than tricky on the video !

[Trickypig]

Is that possible that Alex has been "trapped" by the wind, boat speed and sea, and wasn't in any way able to gybe back to the gate earlier because of boat handling ?
It's seems more than tricky on the video !

I think he hopes the high behind the leading 4 catch them so he can sail back to them with pressure. Looking at their current speeds and distance to the gate I think the 4 will get to the gate and start back south before the high catches them. The worst scenario for HB is to have to sail up to the gate through the high. My thoughts for any of the first 4 is to get up to the gate asap, which would make the western end the favoured end to get to.

[Estar]

Agreed about AT's strategy. I think he saw he was clearly not going to make the western end of the gate before the low. So the best choice was to split with the french and hope the high traps them. There is no real downside in that choice for him, and big potential upside. But that video is pretty dramatic . . . one mistake in those conditions and there would be serious consequences.

Regarding BP, it looks like a very close thing . . . but #1 there seems to be a bit more wind near the gate than shown in the girbs, and #2 BP has already proven relatively fast in light airs, and #3 BP/ALC has shown he is good at this 'aim at the gate in light air' tactic (in th edoldrums and in the St Helena high). So, I give it 70/30 he will get round the gate without being trapped.

[mad]

MG's Dover straits TSS violation court case tomorrow.

http://www.yachtingm...aces-100-k-fine

Ouch, that's a big (potential) fine, seen a lot more serious acts by commercial/Fishing traffic.

[DtM]

An early guilty plea shoudl see a fine of about 10% of the max i reckon

[Trickypig]

Agreed about AT's strategy. I think he saw he was clearly not going to make the western end of the gate before the low. So the best choice was to split with the french and hope the high traps them. There is no real downside in that choice for him, and big potential upside. But that video is pretty dramatic . . . one mistake in those conditions and there would be serious consequences.

Regarding BP, it looks like a very close thing . . . but #1 there seems to be a bit more wind near the gate than shown in the girbs, and #2 BP has already proven relatively fast in light airs, and #3 BP/ALC has shown he is good at this 'aim at the gate in light air' tactic (in th edoldrums and in the St Helena high). So, I give it 70/30 he will get round the gate without being trapped.

Yes I like running the slider on the tracker slowly through the race to see what each boat in turn has done. BP has not tried to dodge the light air as much and has sailed a straighter course.

[DtM]

Macif's tracker is gone again !!

[onimod]

Agreed about AT's strategy. I think he saw he was clearly not going to make the western end of the gate before the low. So the best choice was to split with the french and hope the high traps them. There is no real downside in that choice for him, and big potential upside. But that video is pretty dramatic . . . one mistake in those conditions and there would be serious consequences.

Regarding BP, it looks like a very close thing . . . but #1 there seems to be a bit more wind near the gate than shown in the girbs, and #2 BP has already proven relatively fast in light airs, and #3 BP/ALC has shown he is good at this 'aim at the gate in light air' tactic (in th edoldrums and in the St Helena high). So, I give it 70/30 he will get round the gate without being trapped.

Yes I like running the slider on the tracker slowly through the race to see what each boat in turn has done. BP has not tried to dodge the light air as much and has sailed a straighter course.

I think there was a discussion during the last Volvo about how often the boat sailing the shorter course was the winner.
It definitely seems to be a part of Armel's strategy.

[popo]

Macif's tracker is gone again !!

Yeah, the Golden Boy is too fast for the sat to catch him !

[omertuga]

Hi everyone, I've been following this forum for a very long time but this is my first post (I know all about the newbie initiation ). this may have been posted before but I haven't seen it anywhere, is there any chance either Popo or Laurent can translate this video about the tour of Macif 60 by Francois Gabart? Thanks

http://blogs.lexpres...rancois-gabart/

[onimod]

Now BP is AWOL.
Are these tracking errors strategic?

[popo]

Hi everyone, I've been following this forum for a very long time but this is my first post (I know all about the newbie initiation ). this may have been posted before but I haven't seen it anywhere, is there any chance either Popo or Laurent can translate this video about the tour of Macif 60 by Francois Gabart? Thanks

http://blogs.lexpres...rancois-gabart/

I had to scratch my head a little bit to get the video, cause it's not on youtube or dailymotion, but it's ok, I got it and I'll start subtitling soon !

Tanguy de Lamotte is having troubles.
He had a chinese gybe because his autopilot ram has dissociated itself from the rudder.
He has been able to pass on the spare autopilot.
But 4 batten are dissociated from the cars

the same in video !


AIS at work !

[dolphinmaster]

Now BP is AWOL.
Are these tracking errors strategic?

He's on there doing 0, don't like to wake up here on the east coast and check in to see zero's. No notes on the main VG site.

[Rhyddid]

AT live in 1 minute (2130hrs GMT)

[Rhyddid]

http://new.livestrea.../events/1704824 to see a replay.

[Estar]

He's on there doing 0, don't like to wake up here on the east coast and check in to see zero's. No notes on the main VG site.

At the 0800 position report he was just past the gate doing 11.7kts. It looks like a brilliant move.

Using the 0800 positions it puts him in the lead, CP second +5hr, HB and MA tied for third +7hrs, and VBP at +8hrs, and G at +16hrs

FG/MA must be kicking himself for bailing out to the south and not following BP.

I will do a closer look when we get the 2000 positions, but its all going to be down to how much the high slows everyone behind BP.

[squall]

He's on there doing 0, don't like to wake up here on the east coast and check in to see zero's. No notes on the main VG site.

At the 0800 position report he was just past the gate doing 11.7kts. It looks like a brilliant move.

Using the 0800 positions it puts him in the lead, CP second +5hr, HB and MA tied for third +7hrs, and VBP at +8hrs, and G at +16hrs

FG/MA must be kicking himself for bailing out to the south and not following BP.

I will do a closer look when we get the 2000 positions, but its all going to be down to how much the high slows everyone behind BP.

It seems to me that Armel will be sailing away...he is free to go having passed the gate. For all the boats in the South it will be painful to climb up to this gate. AT is really far out...

[moody frog]

Crazy !

The 15.00 U.T poll rankings do not take the gate into account ! It shows ALC behind FG when he is actually miles ahead !
(and The Daily Sail predicts he is going to extend very much in the next days)

[Estar]

1600 ANALYSIS . . . BP in the lead, but the routing says 'only' by 5hrs - he does still now need to work his way south out of the high.. It all now depends on how much the high traps the others at the eastern end of the gate.

12/06: BP working has way out of the high, while the others start to come up to the gate (BP=dark blue, Ma=pink, CP=light blue)
 612.jpg   134.98K   107 downloads

12/07: BP down in the wind, while the others arrive at the gate
 712.jpg   134.19K   121 downloads

12/08: Everyone back down in the wind
 812.jpg   127.43K   101 downloads

12/11: a southern ocean low drives a trough which pushes off the high pressure as they arrive at the A-gate
 1112.jpg   131.53K   75 downloads

Two cautions:

#1 there does seem to be more wind in the high pressure up at the gate than is shown in the grib files. What is there will be critical. The following boats could get seriously stuck if there is less wind, but lose less time if there is more wind.

#2 I am not sure how deep BP will be willing to go. I have put a 44S limit on the routing. I suspect he will not even go that far.

[ADK]

It looks like the weather getting to that gate is going to make things very challenging for pretty much everyone except ALC!

And, looking at the tracker, even the gate wasn't enough to keep everyone out of the ice area.

It's going to be very interesting to watch this race develop over the next few days! I'm guessing that we may see ALC pull out a substantial lead. I'm wondering if this may allow some of the following trio to close the gap on Macif, Hugo Boss & CP as well.

[Speng]

Looks like AT's south move is going to work out OK. I'm sure he didn't expect to pass the guys ahead but he needed to make up ground. Yeah he'll be sailing toward the east end of the gate in lightening wind but he doesn't have to gybe again and he's made up a decent amount of ground.

Bonehead move of the day (IMHO) was Gabart and JPD going off south. They were within spitting distance of LeCleac'h yesterday and then decided to bail out. I guess according to the tracker Gabart's leading but AlC gets to boogie south and do whatever he wants and they have to fight back up to the gate in slackening breeze and bad angles while AT's bringing up the breeze and sailing hotter angles and Armel is going going to sail a hundred miles or so south and take off in the stronger westerlies.

As Asterix once told Obelix, "he's got a free hand now!"

[popo]

the oldest man of the fleet in tough conditions !



Bertrand isn't losing his time

[Estar]

I think we have seen two 'master class' weather moves in the race so far. The first was JPD's gybe to the SW in the S Atlantic when he was the first to spot the front coming off the coast, and this move by BP was the second. The gribs and routing really said he would not pull it off, and that's what FG and JPB saw, but ALC realized that he had more wind than shown in the gribs and that he had a good chance at making it.

In past races I think either of those two moves would have given the boat a commanding lead, but in this race the top pack is so alert even these brilliant moves only seem to gain 5-10 hrs.

2000 routing looks the same as 1600. I would guess that ALC/BP will gain more than is shown here because the boat seems so good in the lighter stuff. This race, with the added ice gates, has been shifted in a way that suits him.

(dark blue = BP, Pink = Ma, Light blue = G)
 vendee.jpg   114.42K   75 downloads

[Trickypig]

Looks like AT's south move is going to work out OK. I'm sure he didn't expect to pass the guys ahead but he needed to make up ground. Yeah he'll be sailing toward the east end of the gate in lightening wind but he doesn't have to gybe again and he's made up a decent amount of ground.

Bonehead move of the day (IMHO) was Gabart and JPD going off south. They were within spitting distance of LeCleac'h yesterday and then decided to bail out. I guess according to the tracker Gabart's leading but AlC gets to boogie south and do whatever he wants and they have to fight back up to the gate in slackening breeze and bad angles while AT's bringing up the breeze and sailing hotter angles and Armel is going going to sail a hundred miles or so south and take off in the stronger westerlies.

As Asterix once told Obelix, "he's got a free hand now!"

Totally agree with the bonehead award.

I'm amazed at how far AT is going to bang the corner, especially if any of the current Estar found there is running. I know it is what the routing shows but he is quickly providing himself only downside if the breeze doesn't do as predicted.

[steinbrenner]

why AT gybed again? seemed to me he hed ideal course to the east end of the gate

[Trickypig]

why AT gybed again? seemed to me he hed ideal course to the east end of the gate

the tracker shows him at 126 degrees at 1800 ut. He is on port gybe in his video interview before 1800 and says he may gybe back ... so I think he must have.

[DtM]

Does anyone know how to get rid of the video camera logo off the tracker? Sometimes there are so many you can't see the boats.

Thanks

[Charlie B]

why AT gybed again? seemed to me he hed ideal course to the east end of the gate

the tracker shows him at 126 degrees at 1800 ut. He is on port gybe in his video interview before 1800 and says he may gybe back ... so I think he must have.

Looking at his website, looks like he has been dodging icebergs....

[Alysum]

I'm sure it has already been asked, but what is everyone (except BP) doing a long way south of the gate? Are they all going to have to come up to go thru the gate?

[steinbrenner]

Does anyone know how to get rid of the video camera logo off the tracker? Sometimes there are so many you can't see the boats.

Thanks

click on the camera symbol, right side of the screen, just left of the name of first skipper

[DtM]

Bingo !!!

Thanks

[DtM]

I'm sure it has already been asked, but what is everyone (except BP) doing a long way south of the gate? Are they all going to have to come up to go thru the gate?

Indeed they are all going to have to get up to the gate. AlC has made the move of the race.

[dolphinmaster]

I'm sure it has already been asked, but what is everyone (except BP) doing a long way south of the gate? Are they all going to have to come up to go thru the gate?

Indeed they are all going to have to get up to the gate. AlC has made the move of the race.

Maybe, ............. looks like a mine field for everyone over the next 36+ hrs.

[Slim]

Some meteo discussion from HB's Operations Manager - full text here.

"Each hour that goes by they will feel the wind getting lighter in strength and moving more to the west. Banque Populaire has already passed the Westerly mark this morning and at some point this morning the rest of them will have to gybe for their final approach to the ice gate. HUGO BOSS being the furthest south of the leading pack will have the stronger winds of the group and will most likely be the last to gybe and should make some good gains on the other four front boats and extend on the boats behind . But there is no avoiding it, all five leading boats will get caught in the high pressure before they reach the gate and the pace will slow."

[onimod]

Stam and Gabart have around 100nm on Armel and are travelling at 3x his speed but they are heading straight into what seems to be a bigger hole than Armel is trying to escape.
I'll just twiddle my thumbs until Estar come along.
These gates are having a massive effect on the race strategy.

[XTR]

It's going to be interesting to see how much the leaders actually move in the next 24 hours. Based on the 0300 UT report the lead pack looks to need what on the order of 10 hours or so to get to the gate if they could hold speed, but the wind predictions put the high right on top of their positions for the next 24 to 36 hours. ALC's move looks brilliant, that is unless he cant get out of the high and stays becalmed for another 12 hours. If he gets enough wind to get to about 42 by the time the other guys get through the gate it looks like he'll put some distance in them.

Anyone care to guess how many hours before BS and FG actually make the gate? Then how long they stay hung up in the high?

[oioi]

great picture from mirabaud looking back at synerciel. thats close racing after 7000 odd miles.

Attached Files

•  croisement-en-mer-r-644-0.jpg   67.39K   77 downloads

[aquila]

site shows stamn in the lead, i know it's only for now but go stamn! it will be interesting how this all works out
on another note the latest english update is the fourth? one that is still in french!? wtf they should hire popo already!

[onimod]

Armel is still stuck in the mud <5kts and 137.9nm behind Stamm.
The other 3 are down to ~12kts and look to be heading for the dead centre of the system directly above gate.
Yuck.

[Presuming Ed]

MG's Dover straits TSS violation court case tomorrow.

http://www.yachtingm...aces-100-k-fine

Fined £9,381 and costs against him of £4,125.

[Estar]

Situation basically the same as yesterday.

BP in the lead, with CP second (+4hr), MA third (+5hrs), VBP (+7hrs), HB (+9hrs), and G (+1d 10hrs). This assumes BP will go down to 44 20S. I suspect he will not want to go that far south. If he only goes to 43 S it costs him an hour. BP is now sailing at exactly the routing course, so the grib winds are probably now more accurate.

Routings (BP blue, CP pink, Ma green, vbp light blue, HB (flesh color), G brown)
 vendee1.jpg   151.32K   79 downloads

7/12 BP (blue) still working his way slowly out of the high, while CP (pink), MA, VBP, & HB (flesh color) enter it.
 712.jpg   146.02K   65 downloads

8/12 BP out of the high and gybed toward the next gate. CP rounded gate and starting to come (slowly) south. HB at the gate in very light winds
 812.jpg   110.1K   34 downloads

9/12 Main group starting to get breeze. You can see a trough coming in from behind. This is what save the followers from getting killed by BP. With this trough they don't have to sail as far south in light winds as BP has to.
 912.jpg   108.86K   38 downloads

10/12 All firmly in good breeze from the trough.
 1012.jpg   153.21K   29 downloads

[Haji]

What a race! Great stuff.

[popo]

from Wavre



and from Le Cam !



and the Golden Boy

[popo]

Suck it Alex !

[flojo]

I'm sure it has already been asked, but what is everyone (except BP) doing a long way south of the gate? Are they all going to have to come up to go thru the gate?

Indeed they are all going to have to get up to the gate. AlC has made the move of the race.

Shure ?

[Rail Meat]

Suck it Alex !

Thanks again for the translations, PoPo. Very much appreciated.

[popo]

hard times for Stamm !
PS : I'd never seen inside his boat, my god how raw it is !

[Rail Meat]

hard times for Stamm !
PS : I'd never seen inside his boat, my god how raw it is !

Pick up a can of paint.... its kilos of weight. When you spend an astronomical amount of money to reduce weight in the boat, you don't willingly slap more weight onto the boat unless it really needs to be done. I painted only those surfaces that there was a reasonable chance that I would come into contact with, simply to avoid picking up glass splinters. otherwise, the lightest solution is to leave it unpainted.

[popo]

For sure I know, but living 3 months in this must be pretty hard !

[Estar]

From the 1600 positions . . . Looking at actual course and speed vs the routing program recommendations . . . .

BP is pretty much doing exactly the routing - suggests his wind is as shown on the gribs.

CP and VBP are sailing more northerly with more speed, suggesting they have more wind as they approach the high and they have already gybed (which MA seems not to have done yet)

HB is about the same speed as the routing but on a more northerly course - he may be sailing more northerly to keep the angle hot and it does not hurt him as he can cross the gate anywhere.

actual routing, actual routing
BP: 162 vs 157 , 11.1kts vs 11.8kts
CP: 359 vs 020 , 10.3kts vs 7.1kts
VBP: 014 vs 041 , 9.4kts vs 7.9kts
HB: 036 vs 055 , 11.0kts vs 11.4kts

[Trickypig]

From the 1600 positions . . . Looking at actual course and speed vs the routing program recommendations . . . .

BP is pretty much doing exactly the routing - suggests his wind is as shown on the gribs.

CP and VBP are sailing more northerly with more speed, suggesting they have more wind as they approach the high and they have already gybed (which MA seems not to have done yet)

HB is about the same speed as the routing but on a more northerly course - he may be sailing more northerly to keep the angle hot and it does not hurt him as he can cross the gate anywhere.

actual routing, actual routing
BP: 162 vs 157 , 11.1kts vs 11.8kts
CP: 359 vs 020 , 10.3kts vs 7.1kts
VBP: 014 vs 041 , 9.4kts vs 7.9kts
HB: 036 vs 055 , 11.0kts vs 11.4kts

Estar, can you throw in a factor for current into the routing?

[Estar]

Estar, can you throw in a factor for current into the routing?

Yes, the easiest way is to have a current grib file. They are easy to get for the Atlantic - from the RTOFS model.

It is a little harder and probably less accurate in the Indian ocean but there is data, like this . . . .

 current.jpg   153.51K   22 downloads

Generally its about .5kts ENE but as the above pic shows the details are locally wind driven.

[Trickypig]

Thanks again Estar,

now I've had a good look around another useful tool.

it appears a little weird to see them sailing up to a virtual mark then gybe around it and head south. I hope no one hits it.

I think Armel/BP is doing to the following 3 what JPD did at the previous gate. It is amazing to see him hunt the breeze so aggressively 11.1 knots of boat speed but only 4.7 of VMG. I'm sure he is sailing to his routing polars, though.

[Speng]

Never thought I'd see where you could almost call overlap in an ocean race...

AlC's gotten rolled a bit harder than I'd guessed but I think it's still the better choice. The others particularly Gabart and Stamm have to sail almost north to make the gate plus maintain a decent wind angle once they get to the gate they'll have to tack or gybe (either way it'll be light air) and come back almost south to have a decent angle i.e. terrible VMG. Another thing to consider is they will need to take some time to ensure that race control verifies they've crossed the gate (I assume the penalties for not obeying the gate are severe). Once he gybes Armel is going to boogie of downwind "at a high rate of speed". The only problem is ice...

Seems like Bernard is quite stressed. He says he's breaking things but other than hydro-gen problems and a stanchion he mentioned we don't know what else. The inside of his boat is a wide open space i.e. it doesn't have the line guides and struts that a lot of the other boats have because of the small coachroof and flat deck. It's allowed him to have a slick stack machine but at the same time in a lurch he could end up taking a huge header into the other side of the boat. I'm surprised more of the skippers don't sleep in hammocks or hanging cots - a little bungie and you'd be pretty secure and at the same time isolated from some of the boat movements

[popo]

gennak issues



worried about what's to come Golden Boy ?

[Trickypig]

Never thought I'd see where you could almost call overlap in an ocean race...

AlC's gotten rolled a bit harder than I'd guessed but I think it's still the better choice. The others particularly Gabart and Stamm have to sail almost north to make the gate plus maintain a decent wind angle once they get to the gate they'll have to tack or gybe (either way it'll be light air) and come back almost south to have a decent angle i.e. terrible VMG. Another thing to consider is they will need to take some time to ensure that race control verifies they've crossed the gate (I assume the penalties for not obeying the gate are severe). Once he gybes Armel is going to boogie of downwind "at a high rate of speed". The only problem is ice...

Seems like Bernard is quite stressed. He says he's breaking things but other than hydro-gen problems and a stanchion he mentioned we don't know what else. The inside of his boat is a wide open space i.e. it doesn't have the line guides and struts that a lot of the other boats have because of the small coachroof and flat deck. It's allowed him to have a slick stack machine but at the same time in a lurch he could end up taking a huge header into the other side of the boat. I'm surprised more of the skippers don't sleep in hammocks or hanging cots - a little bungie and you'd be pretty secure and at the same time isolated from some of the boat movements

I always try to see who is stacking and who has stuff to leeward. Francois, the `Golden Boy' seems to do it, always. The last 12 hours has seen a lot of gybing in the following 4 (I still regard them as following) so executing the gybe then stacking would be tiring. I saw Francois had a headsail bagged and strapped down aft on the side deck against the stanchions. I hope he doesn't `stick it' and do damage in the fresh winds.

[Estar]

CP now 23nm to the gate, and Ma 40nm.

But they are only doing 2.6kts and 2.9kts.

But the wind is 'supposed' to build a tiny bit very shortly and come a little forward, and the router has them doing most of the rounding at about 6-8kts of boat speed.

Very hard to predict. They may come to a dead stop (the real solid breeze is forecast to fill-in in 24hrs), or CP may be around by mid-night if they can hold 6-8kts of breeze forward of the beam (what the router says).

BP has gybed, so it looks like he does not want to go much below 42S. He looks like he is now dead on the great circle route.

At this report golding was 339nm behind BP, but when BP gets to the A gate he is predicted to be 643nm behind. (has to go to the C gate, and then has to stay high to get over a light air bubble . . . but that's speculative as it's too far out for forecast accuracy).

[Trickypig]

CP now 23nm to the gate, and Ma 40nm.

But they are only doing 2.6kts and 2.9kts.

But the wind is 'supposed' to build a tiny bit very shortly and come a little forward, and the router has them doing most of the rounding at about 6-8kts of boat speed.

Very hard to predict. They may come to a dead stop (the real solid breeze is forecast to fill-in in 24hrs), or CP may be around by mid-night if they can hold 6-8kts of breeze forward of the beam (what the router says).

BP has gybed, so it looks like he does not want to go much below 42S. He looks like he is now dead on the great circle route.

At this report golding was 339nm behind BP, but when BP gets to the A gate he is predicted to be 643nm behind. (has to go to the C gate, and then has to stay high to get over a light air bubble . . . but that's speculative as it's too far out for forecast accuracy).

I think 2.6 and 2.9 knots is a dead stop! Those big roached mains would flap hard enough in a swell to move them at that pace!

At least Alex T will get to catch the other 3 and join them in the parking lot.

If Armel/BP can average 15 knots for the next 24 hours he'll end up with a 100nm lead (min) and continue to extend it in the fresher winds to the south.

[Big Show]

2.6 knots at 40 degrees S in the Indian ocean in an IMOCA 60. AKA - parked!

Full shuffle re-deal. The high is parked over the eastern end of the gate with the four of them inching towards LESS wind.

Armel may very well be gone. I'm not sure I like the ice gate for this reason but the rules are the rules. Biting the bullet early is looking good right now.

[Bull Gator]

Is global warming contributing to light airs in Indian ocean?

[Slim]

Tracker says Stamm turned too soon??

[erdb]

2.6 knots at 40 degrees S in the Indian ocean in an IMOCA 60. AKA - parked!

Full shuffle re-deal. The high is parked over the eastern end of the gate with the four of them inching towards LESS wind.

Armel may very well be gone. I'm not sure I like the ice gate for this reason but the rules are the rules. Biting the bullet early is looking good right now.

I don't know, for me the ice gates make it much more interesting tactically. Sure it's great to watch boats surfing down the waves at 20+ kts, but this is an amazing chess match and I wouldn't be surprised if at the end the leading group end up a few miles from each other.

Although this should go under a Vendee Globe 2016 thread, but here is a vid about Nandor Fa's boat being built in Hungary at Pauger:



The part about the new boat starts around 2:00. The boat, Spirit of Hungary, was designed by Nandor Fa and Attila Dery. Hull should be ready by February and will be splashed in Slovenia in June as reported by sailing.hu. Plan is to do multiple IMOCA races then the Vendee!

[JaredC]

What the hell is the boat sailing at 1:10-ish? Looks like a big Mini with no cabin. Cool.

[ronnie_simpson]

hard times for Stamm !
PS : I'd never seen inside his boat, my god how raw it is !

we did a boat tour of Cheminees Poujoulat at the pontoon in Les Sables before the race. Fairly interesting. Extremely interseting interior layout and very spartan. Coolest stacking system in the fleet. Do a serch for it.

[cric]

hard times for Stamm !
PS : I'd never seen inside his boat, my god how raw it is !

we did a boat tour of Cheminees Poujoulat at the pontoon in Les Sables before the race. Fairly interesting. Extremely interseting interior layout and very spartan. Coolest stacking system in the fleet. Do a serch for it.

nice video, it's a lot of black !

[Potter]

Is global warming contributing to light airs in Indian ocean?

Yes, in a way, there is definitely more ice than a decade ago. As the amount of ice had increased, so ice gates were introduced. The ice gates are keeping the competitors at lower latitudes, therefore in lighter winds.
In the latitudes that they sailed in a few years ago the wind strengths are the same as they have been for millenia.

[onimod]

Armel is only 20nm behind Francois and doing 13.5kts to Francois's 3.5kts.
It appears the reality is matching the predictions and Armel will regain the lead, but it hasn't been a knockout blow this time.

[popo]

the two grandpas are still together !



mostly for ladies !

[Estar]

Armel is only 20nm behind Francois and doing 13.5kts to Francois's 3.5kts.
It appears the reality is matching the predictions and Armel will regain the lead, but it hasn't been a knockout blow this time.

Exactly. Everyone got around the gate last night. They still have to dig out of the high but wind is filling in from behind and ALC/BP came out with a 2-3hr lead. BP has stayed at 42S and as predicted has paid about an hour for not going further south. MA (AKA the golden boy) somehow managed to get around CP and into second place in the rounding - I suspect his work rate was higher but this design is also obviously terrific in light airs.

Routings ; BP (blue) in lead, M (green) second +2:23hrs, CP (Pink) third +2:53hrs, VBP fourth (light blue) +3:08hrs, HB fifth (salmon) +6:14hrs, and G (darkest blue) +1d 1h. Pretty much a straight line boat speed contest from here to the A gate.

 vendee.jpg   166.27K   52 downloads

12/08, everyone (in the front 5) around the C gate. BP in wind, the others still digging out of the high. But you can see the center of the high is past them and moving away and wind is filling in behind.

 1208.jpg   104.38K   44 downloads

12/09 Everyone in wind. You can see the trough coming from behind pushing the high out and bringing nice winds.

 1209.jpg   160.62K   24 downloads

12/10 Trough develops a circulating low, which does not bother the front pack but makes golding's group go extra distance to get above it
 1210.jpg   126.96K   17 downloads

[gimmee]

Is global warming contributing to light airs in Indian ocean?

Yes, in a way, there is definitely more ice than a decade ago. As the amount of ice had increased, so ice gates were introduced. The ice gates are keeping the competitors at lower latitudes, therefore in lighter winds.
In the latitudes that they sailed in a few years ago the wind strengths are the same as they have been for millenia.

So much for the global warming scaremongers !

[dolphinmaster]

Is global warming contributing to light airs in Indian ocean?

Yes, in a way, there is definitely more ice than a decade ago. As the amount of ice had increased, so ice gates were introduced. The ice gates are keeping the competitors at lower latitudes, therefore in lighter winds.
In the latitudes that they sailed in a few years ago the wind strengths are the same as they have been for millenia.

So much for the global warming scaremongers !

Um........... It's the warming that is dropping the ice off at a rapid pace.

[Dog]

Armel is only 20nm behind Francois and doing 13.5kts to Francois's 3.5kts.
It appears the reality is matching the predictions and Armel will regain the lead, but it hasn't been a knockout blow this time.

Exactly. Everyone got around the gate last night. They still have to dig out of the high but wind is filling in from behind and ALC/BP came out with a 2-3hr lead. BP has stayed at 42S and as predicted has paid about an hour for not going further south. MA (AKA the golden boy) somehow managed to get around CP and into second place in the rounding - I suspect his work rate was higher but this design is also obviously terrific in light airs.

Routings ; BP (blue) in lead, M (green) second +2:23hrs, CP (Pink) third +2:53hrs, VBP fourth (light blue) +3:08hrs, HB fifth (salmon) +6:14hrs, and G (darkest blue) +1d 1h. Pretty much a straight line boat speed contest from here to the A gate.

Interesting…So if that plays out they leave the Crozet gate pretty much as they were when approaching it despite the different routes taken.

[8850]

Sorry for this newbie post but I've been living for, and really enjoying, the daily update videos. One thing I can't figure out is how they are getting the aerial footage of the boats? I thought it must be stock footage as the fleet seems too far from land for a heli but maybe not. Anyone know?

[Estar]

Looking a bit further ahead. Golding's group has had a bit of luck recently, but it looks like he may have some challenges between the Amsterdam and W Australia gates.

12/12 just as he leaves the Amsterdam gate he runs into headwinds (green line BP, blue line G/MG). You can see to the right that BP has managed to ride the trough all the way basically from tommorow thru the amsterdam gate to the Australia gate

 1212.jpg   90.33K   34 downloads

12/13 these headwinds are driven by a tropical storm dropping south right at him . . . this is cyclone season and the ice gates do keep the boats closer to their paths

 1213.jpg   182.83K   32 downloads

12/14 It's a very close encounter and he needs to go over the top of the storm

 1214.jpg   169.25K   21 downloads

12/15 then approaching the Australia gate he is in the light left over slop after the storm passes

 1215.jpg   96.72K   19 downloads

G loses more than a day in all this.

[moody frog]

By the way, thank you Estar for all this, it makes the whole thing much more interesting to follow.
Great job !

[Estar]

This is BP's routing for the next 7 days, all the way to the east Australia gate. Right now looks like a straight speed race without many passing lanes . . . but you don't want to fall off the back or you get caught up in the tropical storm - I have market it here on 12/15 with a red "X". You can see that while it has weakened there is still an unfavorable wind field under it, and that BP has just stayed in front of it. This is obviously all looking out at the edge of forecast accuracy (5 days is usually judged as the gfs accuracy limit).

 bp.jpg   92.09K   58 downloads

[Trickypig]

Armel is only 20nm behind Francois and doing 13.5kts to Francois's 3.5kts.
It appears the reality is matching the predictions and Armel will regain the lead, but it hasn't been a knockout blow this time.

5 hrs later and Armel has put 31 miles more under his belt and is now 11 miles ahead of Macif. He is doing 16 knots and is extending his lead.

[Estar]

^^

Interesting the different courses that MA & HB (more easterly - going for the shortest distance) are taking from CP & VBP (more southerly - going for the quickest breeze). It will be interesting to see if one pays off more. The router thinks they should be going east (95 degrees)

This is an important fight because if the tropical storm develops as predicted the leader will have more wind and every mile back will have less wind, so the rich will get richer.

By the way, thank you Estar for all this, it makes the whole thing much more interesting to follow.
Great job !

My pleasure. popo is the one doing the harder work and deserving of the praise .

I am going to be ruined after this exercise for routing my own 7kt boat!

[Pierre S]

By the way, thank you Estar for all this, it makes the whole thing much more interesting to follow.
Great job !

+1 from here. Particularly appreciated as I have the impression the cartography and commentary provided by the VG official site is weaker than last time in terms of content (or maybe I haven't looked at it as much as I've found this place).

[popo]

Cali knows how to live !



Le Cam geographic !

[STYACHT]

^^

Interesting the different courses that MA & HB (more easterly - going for the shortest distance) are taking from CP & VBP (more southerly - going for the quickest breeze). It will be interesting to see if one pays off more. The router thinks they should be going east (95 degrees)

This is an important fight because if the tropical storm develops as predicted the leader will have more wind and every mile back will have less wind, so the rich will get richer.

By the way, thank you Estar for all this, it makes the whole thing much more interesting to follow.
Great job !

My pleasure. popo is the one doing the harder work and deserving of the praise .

I am going to be ruined after this exercise for routing my own 7kt boat!

OR you could just go for a quicker boat...

[Estar]

I was curious how speculative the tropical storm was/is that I mentioned above. Its not spectulative, as it is in fact spinning right now up in the tropics, and it is almost certain to track to the SE, but what exact track and timing it will take over the course is low accuracy right now. Something to keep an eye on.

 storm2.jpg   230.47K   49 downloads

[sonofasailor4x]

I agree on the official website not being as good as last time. Some of it might have to do with the absence of Sam though, as she was very consistent with her posts. I thought after that great communication on the last go round, a sponsor would have provided her with the best funded campaign with a new boat.

Thank dog for Estar and Popo!

[gimmee]

Is global warming contributing to light airs in Indian ocean?

Yes, in a way, there is definitely more ice than a decade ago. As the amount of ice had increased, so ice gates were introduced. The ice gates are keeping the competitors at lower latitudes, therefore in lighter winds.
In the latitudes that they sailed in a few years ago the wind strengths are the same as they have been for millenia.

So much for the global warming scaremongers !

Um........... It's the warming that is dropping the ice off at a rapid pace.

Bollocks,what is Potter was saying is that there IS MORE ICE this year than a decade ago !

[popo]

So isn't this the second time of the race that a "major move" gives finally peanuts ?

[Terrorvision]

Is global warming contributing to light airs in Indian ocean?

Yes, in a way, there is definitely more ice than a decade ago. As the amount of ice had increased, so ice gates were introduced. The ice gates are keeping the competitors at lower latitudes, therefore in lighter winds.
In the latitudes that they sailed in a few years ago the wind strengths are the same as they have been for millenia.

So much for the global warming scaremongers !

Um........... It's the warming that is dropping the ice off at a rapid pace.

Bollocks,what is Potter was saying is that there IS MORE ICE this year than a decade ago !

Oh dear......there is more ice further north because it is breaking off from the bigger bergs that have historically been further south and well out of the yachtie's way. The bergs are warming up and breaking up.......not good my friend, not good.

[LeoV]

Popo,

ALC was 12 miles in the lead before the move (5-12), later today they will sail on the same latitude you can see what the gain is. Around 50 miles, so he won. Not much, but being in the lead and gaining is good for moral.

[popo]

For sure, but he won't put 100 miles to everybody, will he ?
Macif also got a shorter route to the next gate it seems,

[Carboninit]

The race hasn't started yet. The biggest let down for me is Mike Golding Gamesa. He is no where near the leading pack. Macif to win if it doesn't fall apart.

[winchfodder]

The race hasn't started yet. The biggest let down for me is Mike Golding Gamesa. He is no where near the leading pack. Macif to win if it doesn't fall apart.

I presume you were joking about Mike Golding, he is a good sailor, but not a racer in this company.

[moody frog]

For sure, but he won't put 100 miles to everybody, will he ?
Macif also got a shorter route to the next gate it seems,

You are right on lead, this being said, I'm wondering if the step-up in racing level and boat speeds (average whatever the conditions) we see this year, is not driving the race towards Figaro and/or cycling Tour de France style.
I.e: no more clever flyers but shaking up the fleet at key points to distance one competitor at a time (Dick does not seem to get too well out of Crozet) , next key point, next shake-up.
Would not that fit with a "jackal" technique ?
Of course, the overall weather and course picture is different this year, and ..... we are not yet half-way.
We'll see

[popo]

what we need is a big bad and ugly low lasting at least 4 days to shake that up and see who got the bolocks to hammer down through it.
I thinks, without breakage, if the close race stays like this for a long time, it's clearly advantage Le Cleac'h !