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BYC 2012 Cabo Weather?


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#1 Dude

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Posted 27 March 2012 - 11:52 PM

Anyone have any predictions on the weather? To me, it looks fast out of the gate, Cedros looks epic, mild finish???

#2 realestatebroker

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 01:51 AM

Routing for Medicine Man currently showing 2 days 14 hours. Peak wind 29 kts early Sunday AM.

#3 Hitchhiker

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 05:47 AM

This has potential for a good run. Reckon on about 30 hours of 20+ true WS from Midday Sat to 1800 Sun.

3 Days 20 Hours for the Wagon if she was going.

And..4.5 hours faster if starting on the 31st.

#4 GeorgiaHalsted

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 07:26 AM

you have known nowPosted Image

#5 Dude

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 03:09 PM

This has potential for a good run. Reckon on about 30 hours of 20+ true WS from Midday Sat to 1800 Sun.

3 Days 20 Hours for the Wagon if she was going.

And..4.5 hours faster if starting on the 31st.


I assume your weather routers see some breeze for the end game?

#6 Hitchhiker

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 04:10 PM


This has potential for a good run. Reckon on about 30 hours of 20+ true WS from Midday Sat to 1800 Sun.

3 Days 20 Hours for the Wagon if she was going.

And..4.5 hours faster if starting on the 31st.


I assume your weather routers see some breeze for the end game?


The end game is still a little far out. I'm going out 115 hours from today (mar 29). So that gets to April1 1100 hours. The trend at the moment though is for the gradient ridge to track south east and then start to get compressed against a small low pressure ridge over mainland Mexico.

Breeze in the 20's to high 20's for about 36 hours from 0800 or so on the 31st to 1800 on April 1st. Couple of hours in the high teens then back up to the mid 20's for another 7 hours early am into the 2nd.

With the generic course waypoints I put in I'm getting the following:

The Wagon at 3 days 17 hrs.

J-125 3 days 4 hours

J-120 4 days even.

Mumm 30 3 days 4 hours and 120 gallons!! That would be one wet ride.

Your mileage may vary

Wannabe Meteo disclaimer. Still several days out and while the models are beginning to look solid, the further out it goes the less certain it is.

That said, this could well be epic. I'm jealous. Getting close to '08. The Wagon did a 3 Day 9 hour run that year.

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#7 DoRag

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 04:41 PM

you have known nowPosted Image



WTF?

#8 Dude

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 05:04 PM



This has potential for a good run. Reckon on about 30 hours of 20+ true WS from Midday Sat to 1800 Sun.

3 Days 20 Hours for the Wagon if she was going.

And..4.5 hours faster if starting on the 31st.


I assume your weather routers see some breeze for the end game?


The end game is still a little far out. I'm going out 115 hours from today (mar 29). So that gets to April1 1100 hours. The trend at the moment though is for the gradient ridge to track south east and then start to get compressed against a small low pressure ridge over mainland Mexico.

Breeze in the 20's to high 20's for about 36 hours from 0800 or so on the 31st to 1800 on April 1st. Couple of hours in the high teens then back up to the mid 20's for another 7 hours early am into the 2nd.

With the generic course waypoints I put in I'm getting the following:

The Wagon at 3 days 17 hrs.

J-125 3 days 4 hours

J-120 4 days even.

Mumm 30 3 days 4 hours and 120 gallons!! That would be one wet ride.

Your mileage may vary

Wannabe Meteo disclaimer. Still several days out and while the models are beginning to look solid, the further out it goes the less certain it is.

That said, this could well be epic. I'm jealous. Getting close to '08. The Wagon did a 3 Day 9 hour run that year.



Looks like there is a good race in class B? Who are your picks?
Class A Pendragon "If the boat stays together"
Class B GI close race with Holua & OEX
Class C Reinrag by 2 hours over 2nd place
Class D Sabrina you cannot correct over a well sailed Calkins 50

#9 Hitchhiker

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 05:21 PM

I like your picks, with the possible exception of Derivative looking to upset Reinrag. Didn't Derivative beat Reinrag in '10, with Warrior beating both?

Also, March 31 start still looking faster by about 5 hours.

Certainly good conditions for Pendragon, if they keep it all in the bag that is.

#10 CowboyKell

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 07:30 PM

I like your picks, with the possible exception of Derivative looking to upset Reinrag. Didn't Derivative beat Reinrag in '10, with Warrior beating both?


I'm lookin' for Flaca to edge out both.

Though we're light one crew, anyone want a ride?

#11 us7070

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 07:57 PM

i mostly sail on the east coast and i'm not really familiar with west coast distance races.

my first question is: why so few boats? this looks like a great race!

my other question is about the yellow brick tracking for the race - we will be using yellow brick for the bermuda race in june.

with our previous bermuda race tracker, we had a link for low-bandwidth downloading of positions - a csv file -, so we could monitor our competition.

do you guys have low-bandwidth position reporting for this race?

i want to demo it, and see the format.

#12 sunseeker

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 08:12 PM

i mostly sail on the east coast and i'm not really familiar with west coast distance races.

my first question is: why so few boats? this looks like a great race!

my other question is about the yellow brick tracking for the race - we will be using yellow brick for the bermuda race in june.

with our previous bermuda race tracker, we had a link for low-bandwidth downloading of positions - a csv file -, so we could monitor our competition.

do you guys have low-bandwidth position reporting for this race?

i want to demo it, and see the format.


Alot of reason why so few boats. People got tired of sailing stripped out carbon tubes and eating gruel. The never ending "this is the best rating rule ever" debate. Owners got tired of buying disposable sails, and paying too many people to pull strings for them, and then being ungrateful about their pay and accommodations at a fancy resort at the end of the trip. And, the general economy. Mexico and drug wars. Wife and kids don't want sail boats like are being sailed these days, at least if the expectation is to be ultracompetitive. Swans aren't cool any more on the west coast. Golf is easier. Fast cars are more fun. Fishing from a Tiara isn't so bad. Actually, it is almost a miracle there are as many boats as there are.

#13 notallthere

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 10:45 PM


i mostly sail on the east coast and i'm not really familiar with west coast distance races.

my first question is: why so few boats? this looks like a great race!

my other question is about the yellow brick tracking for the race - we will be using yellow brick for the bermuda race in june.

with our previous bermuda race tracker, we had a link for low-bandwidth downloading of positions - a csv file -, so we could monitor our competition.

do you guys have low-bandwidth position reporting for this race?

i want to demo it, and see the format.


Alot of reason why so few boats. People got tired of sailing stripped out carbon tubes and eating gruel. The never ending "this is the best rating rule ever" debate. Owners got tired of buying disposable sails, and paying too many people to pull strings for them, and then being ungrateful about their pay and accommodations at a fancy resort at the end of the trip. And, the general economy. Mexico and drug wars. Wife and kids don't want sail boats like are being sailed these days, at least if the expectation is to be ultracompetitive. Swans aren't cool any more on the west coast. Golf is easier. Fast cars are more fun. Fishing from a Tiara isn't so bad. Actually, it is almost a miracle there are as many boats as there are.


That's a pretty good rant for a Wednesday. Also most of the reasons I'll be turning and burning post race. Hope the current forecasts hold, but we should eat well the whole way regardless.

#14 Tom O'Keefe

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 10:57 PM



i mostly sail on the east coast and i'm not really familiar with west coast distance races.

my first question is: why so few boats? this looks like a great race!

my other question is about the yellow brick tracking for the race - we will be using yellow brick for the bermuda race in june.

with our previous bermuda race tracker, we had a link for low-bandwidth downloading of positions - a csv file -, so we could monitor our competition.

do you guys have low-bandwidth position reporting for this race?

i want to demo it, and see the format.


Alot of reason why so few boats. People got tired of sailing stripped out carbon tubes and eating gruel. The never ending "this is the best rating rule ever" debate. Owners got tired of buying disposable sails, and paying too many people to pull strings for them, and then being ungrateful about their pay and accommodations at a fancy resort at the end of the trip. And, the general economy. Mexico and drug wars. Wife and kids don't want sail boats like are being sailed these days, at least if the expectation is to be ultracompetitive. Swans aren't cool any more on the west coast. Golf is easier. Fast cars are more fun. Fishing from a Tiara isn't so bad. Actually, it is almost a miracle there are as many boats as there are.


That's a pretty good rant for a Wednesday. Also most of the reasons I'll be turning and burning post race. Hope the current forecasts hold, but we should eat well the whole way regardless.

How about add in that SD to PV was just a few weeks ago? It's not a TransPac year. And as you said the Economy.

#15 sumpin

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Posted 28 March 2012 - 11:34 PM

holua
for sale

#16 Hitchhiker

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Posted 29 March 2012 - 04:08 PM

Things are starting to back off again weather wise. Down to about 28 hours of 20+ TWS with highest at 27 knots early afternoon of Apr1. Friday start now about 4 hours faster than Sat using a J-125 as the model. Looking at around 3 days 15 hours for Sat start.
The low pressure ridge that will allow the steeper gradient ridge over the race course is predicted to move a little more east, meaning the pressure zone wont last as long. That said breeze in the mid to high teens extends further along the course until the finish area where it drops of rapidly.

Of course this is all subject to change in the next 12 hours! :ph34r:

#17 Madmax

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Posted 29 March 2012 - 04:12 PM

I want Holua.

#18 Grinder

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Posted 30 March 2012 - 08:10 PM

What's the latest, gang?

#19 Hitchhiker

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 12:04 AM

About the same weather prog as the last day or so. About 3 days 16 hours for the J-125 model.

A light start today, won't fill in to about 10 TWS until 0300 tomorrow. I was in NPB working today until about 1400 and it was pretty light and overcast. Eddy was in town!

Breeze model looks to ramp up around 1000 tomorrow into the mid teens and keep climbing to the 20's about 1930 and holding all the through to Apr 2 until about 0500. Seven more hours or so of double digits, but tapering off going into the early hours of the 3rd.

I couldn't find the tracking delay info in the SI's. Anyone know what the delay period is?

YB tracking at http://yb.tl/cabo2012

#20 wabbiteer

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 12:19 AM

About the same weather prog as the last day or so. About 3 days 16 hours for the J-125 model.

A light start today, won't fill in to about 10 TWS until 0300 tomorrow. I was in NPB working today until about 1400 and it was pretty light and overcast. Eddy was in town!

Breeze model looks to ramp up around 1000 tomorrow into the mid teens and keep climbing to the 20's about 1930 and holding all the through to Apr 2 until about 0500. Seven more hours or so of double digits, but tapering off going into the early hours of the 3rd.

I couldn't find the tracking delay info in the SI's. Anyone know what the delay period is?

YB tracking at http://yb.tl/cabo2012


I think I read somewhere that it's a couple of hours.

#21 sumpin

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 03:03 AM

When will the party start? Tuesday or Wednesday?

#22 Hitchhiker

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 03:04 AM

When will the party start? Tuesday or Wednesday?

It'll be long over by the time you get there.

#23 Hank

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 05:05 AM

Catalina Eddy is in full force! Makes for HATEFUL first nite.

12 Hour Loop of Southern California Wind Analyses

PAINFUL

#24 realestatebroker

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 06:39 AM

Its good to start on Saturday. Med Man out.

the Friday boys are slatting off Del Mar tonight. Border Run style.


See you all on the starting line tomorrow.

#25 Tom O'Keefe

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 12:42 PM

Well the big boats were off Ensenada by 1:00 AM. After a slow start everyone is now in 20 plus knots of breeze. It looks like today is a game on day!

#26 Dude

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 04:31 PM

About the same weather prog as the last day or so. About 3 days 16 hours for the J-125 model.

A light start today, won't fill in to about 10 TWS until 0300 tomorrow. I was in NPB working today until about 1400 and it was pretty light and overcast. Eddy was in town!

Breeze model looks to ramp up around 1000 tomorrow into the mid teens and keep climbing to the 20's about 1930 and holding all the through to Apr 2 until about 0500. Seven more hours or so of double digits, but tapering off going into the early hours of the 3rd.

I couldn't find the tracking delay info in the SI's. Anyone know what the delay period is?

YB tracking at http://yb.tl/cabo2012


4 Hr delay on tracking, appears that the outside close will work best?

#27 Grinder

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Posted 02 April 2012 - 12:32 PM

Race Facebook page has some breaking news

#28 Team America!

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Posted 02 April 2012 - 12:49 PM

Rapid Transit out again? Will this boat ever finish a race?

#29 Tom O'Keefe

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Posted 02 April 2012 - 01:57 PM

Medi Man broke her boom last night in a 38 knot gust. Bummer for the boys.

On a brighter note GI is hauling the mail.

#30 DA-WOODY

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Posted 02 April 2012 - 06:00 PM

I question for YB

w the 4hr delay does everything match ?

looks like the boats I checked were going downwind faster than the wind (Not DDW so let's not start that again)

could any of the readings be current = wind or boat speed yet not both and not positions ?

be nice if we lived in a world where it could show "Live" and still have the race finish at the end (and not be re-argued weeks later)

but I guess we don't Posted Image

#31 sumpin

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 03:15 AM

Da Wood. leave the sailboating stuff to sailboating people
Get on down to Captains Quaeters stat, cougar having another Jagerbomb and flashing $6,000 worth of mountain flesh. do NOT take pic if the entry point just below the armpit

#32 DA-WOODY

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 06:45 AM

Da Wood. leave the sailboating stuff to sailboating people
Get on down to Captains Quaeters stat, cougar having another Jagerbomb and flashing $6,000 worth of mountain flesh. do NOT take pic if the entry point just below the armpit


I was at the club and heard about the show at the Captains Quaeters

and that you Some Dude & DoRag had extra seats at the table front and center

I considered going till I heard that "AMMCO" was the sponsor Posted Image

I mean why would a Tranny Co. sponsor a gig at a bar where sumpin, Some Dude & DoRag hold court Posted Image

then the bus-boy wearing pink crocks scuttled past saying he had to push-in all the stools before going to the Captains Quaeters for a 4-sum

oh and he/she mentioned that you misspelled Quaeters - what-ever Posted Image

#33 sumpin

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 07:57 AM

that is not misspelled
get it
no
figured

#34 Tom O'Keefe

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 03:03 PM

As of 7:00AM PDT Pendragon and Grand Illusion were match racing in 5.5 knots of breeze doing 5.5 BS with 16 miles to go. G.I. is sailing one hell of a race. Is there a record about to be broken?
They are updating the tracker more frequently and are supposed to be closer to current. The two are down to 3.5 knots now.

http://yb.tl/cabo2012

#35 Grinder

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 03:52 PM

GI is fucking unbelievable

#36 Tom O'Keefe

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 06:17 PM

Pendragon 6 finished at 10:04 PDT this morning. Congratulations to John, Jimmy and the boys! I believe that's just under two hours better than the course record.

#37 some dude

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 06:57 PM


Da Wood. leave the sailboating stuff to sailboating people
Get on down to Captains Quaeters stat, cougar having another Jagerbomb and flashing $6,000 worth of mountain flesh. do NOT take pic if the entry point just below the armpit


I was at the club and heard about the show at the Captains Quaeters

and that you Some Dude & DoRag had extra seats at the table front and center

I considered going till I heard that "AMMCO" was the sponsor Posted Image

I mean why would a Tranny Co. sponsor a gig at a bar where sumpin, Some Dude & DoRag hold court Posted Image

then the bus-boy wearing pink crocks scuttled past saying he had to push-in all the stools before going to the Captains Quaeters for a 4-sum

oh and he/she mentioned that you misspelled Quaeters - what-ever Posted Image


wasn't me I was home in bed and besides my pink crocs are at the cleaners

#38 Tom O'Keefe

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 08:30 PM

Grand Illusion finished at 11:43 AM PDT. I also need to revise Pendragon's time to 10:58 AM .
Awesome job guys!

#39 Tom O'Keefe

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 11:01 PM

John MacLaurin said they were in preserve the boat mode much of Sunday. They hit 32.5 knots BS for their top surf without a kite up.
Patrick said they saw lots of 22s,24, and a few 26's. "More water across the deck than they've ever seen." I have to imagine GI was pedal to the medal the whole way down.

#40 Tom O'Keefe

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 11:39 PM

Some tight racing between Valkery & Condor and Derivative & Reinrag.

#41 Grinder

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 12:14 AM

Some tight racing between Valkery & Condor and Derivative & Reinrag.


Condors' got 'em on the ropes with 27 left.
Real close!




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