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Keel/Draft Design for Circumnavigation


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#1 Student_Driver

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Posted 04 July 2012 - 04:43 PM

Am contemplating a circumnavigation beginning in 2 to 3 years when my children are in their late teens and might be able to join for a few legs and/or take a gap year off from college. Am looking at >10 year old steel and aluminum boats around 25-30 meters... custom and semi custom european built boats. Idea is to take a boat which is priced attractively due to age but built very strong and then invest 25-35% of the purchase price updating electronics, rigging, sails etc.

What concerns me is the fact that the draft on most, if not all, of the fixed keel designs are around 10 % of the LOA where the smaller keelboats I am used to sailing/racing, the ratio is more like >20%.... I understand that cruising harbor depth constraints make keel/draft over 11ft problematic, I wonder how well an 75 to 95 foot boat with a 10 foot keel will sail/point. On the other hand, centerboards boats have higher max drafts but I fear the risk of structural damage in a storm with the centerboard possibly bouncing around...

How can I learn more about this? Are there any good books on sail boat design or good web sites where I can learn more?

Am intrigued by lifting and folding keel design alternatives to centerboard boats. Any thots or experience with this?

Thanks S_D

#2 kimbottles

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Posted 04 July 2012 - 06:19 PM

Spend a few buck and hire Bob Perry to consult with you on this.

You will get more than your money's worth because he has designed and reviewed so many boats he will have all sorts of insights that you will find very valuable.

Everyone who has hire Bob who I have spoken with says it was money very well spent.

Full disclosure: I am a client of Bob Perry and I am very happy with the value I have received.

#3 Gatekeeper

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Posted 04 July 2012 - 07:34 PM

...and he's a darn good cook.


Full disclosure: I have eaten his food and it was very tasty.

(and I agree 100% with Kim)

#4 longy

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Posted 04 July 2012 - 10:15 PM

More draft will help you go upwind, & it will keep you out of more harbors. Pencil out your planned route, look at weather statistics, and look at harbor/entry pass depths. Depending on your route, additional depth might restrict you from the very places you're trying to get to. In the Pacific you will mostly be anchored out, so if you can get thru the pass you'll be OK. In the Med or along the Euro coastline you need to get into harbor, and drawing more than 9' will start to really restrict you.
It's a choice you'll have to make for yourself.

#5 savoir

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 02:54 AM

Why not just buy a proven performer in that size bracket ? Swan Baltic Oyster

All are both European and proven quality performers. Every one sails beautifully.

#6 Zonker

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 04:25 AM

Those are pretty big boats you are considering. Too big IMO unless you are very competent or have crew. We knew a family of 5 with an ex-Clipper Race 72'(?) steel boat. Couldn't sail the boat at anywhere near it's full potential because the loads were too scary and the boat could get ahead of you in a rising wind. 15 minutes on a grinder to raise the mainsail with the bigger teenage son grinding...

Idea is to take a boat which is priced attractively due to age but built very strong and then invest 25-35% of the purchase price updating electronics, rigging, sails etc.


Have you priced a sail or say 80m of 20mm halyard for 30m boat recently? Boat gear costs do not go up linearly with length. It's a cubic function. So if a 12m sailboat mainsail costs X then a 24m sailboat mainsail will cost (24/12)^2 or roughly 4x...

What concerns me is the fact that the draft on most, if not all, of the fixed keel designs are around 10 % of the LOA where the smaller keelboats I am used to sailing/racing, the ratio is more like >20%.... I understand that cruising harbor depth constraints make keel/draft over 11ft problematic, I wonder how well an 75 to 95 foot boat with a 10 foot keel will sail/point. On the other hand, centerboards boats have higher max drafts but I fear the risk of structural damage in a storm with the centerboard possibly bouncing around


Yes, harbour depth is the main reason you don't see 6m keels on 25m cruising boats. And yes they don't point as well. Deep draft WILL restrict you in many harbours. More than 3m becomes an issue in lots of places.

Centerboard boats usually raise their boards in a storm and if well designed structural damage is unlikely. They will clunk a bit though.

Am intrigued by lifting and folding keel design alternatives to centerboard boats. Any thots or experience with this?


Very costly to engineer and build correctly. You won't see them on budget steel or aluminum boats. Maybe if you have the budget for a Wally...

#7 floating dutchman

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 08:26 AM

Those Container Ships, they have a LOT of weight high up. I wonder just how big their keel's are!

Hint: size. and scaling rules I don't understand well.

#8 Presuming Ed

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 08:36 AM

AIUI:
As length increases linearly (doh!)
Area increases to the 2nd power (square)
Volume (displacement) raises to the 3rd (cube) power
Stability increased to the 4th power.

25 - 30 metres is big. Either lots of crew required, or lots of gadgets to go wrong (power everything).

#9 Paps

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 09:56 AM

+ 1 on the size issue, how many crew you planning on??

#10 SemiSalt

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 02:59 PM

+1 on Bob Perry. I'm sure there are other designers would do the same thing.

The tone of your posts suggests that you not just new to ocean sailing, but new to cruising altogether. Still you think you might second-guess experienced designers based on a one-dimension filter. Personally, I think the guys at Van de Stadt (to pick a firm at random) know more about this than I do. They've even done the math.

My own naive off-the-cuff thought was to wonder why you consider steel. Heavy construction makes it harder to get stability, though I guess the size you mention is big enough for steel to be competitive. If you get talked down to, say, 45 feet, you might get to a range where steel comes with a performance penalty. YMT has designed lots of steel boats. He has a good writeup on one of his designs here (scroll down) that covers some issues of steel boats.

Stability issues get easier as boats get bigger and longer. The reasons are hidden in the engineering ratios, but the results are easy to see. Small boats tend to be beamier in order to get more stability, and model boats have great huge keels to keep the rig up. The narrower beam improves the range of positive righting moment.

There are very few family boats of the size you mention. Larger boats need bigger crews.

Try "Racing Through Paradise" by Bill Buckley. Buckley's sailing books tend to be pretty self-indulgent, and he was an egotistical ass, but he does report on the logistical difficulties of getting boat, crew, stores and gear to the desired place at the desired time.

#11 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 03:11 PM

This is a small ship we are talking about, not a boat.
Most people owning boats this size let the hired captain and crew worry about stability ;)
The fuel used JUST FOR GENERATING probably exceeds most cruiser's budgets, let alone the multi-thousands of $ to fill the main tanks. And yes, when you get to this size, they mostly expect constant generator use.

#12 islandplanet

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 04:20 PM

Another potential consultant is John Neal who has a lot of real world cruising and sail training experience. Working with John and Bob Perry would be a good mix.

Draft is your friend upwind but that's about it. A lot of places, anything much more than 6 feet can limit your options. Of course many people are perfectly content with their boat that draws 9 or 10 feet. A boat specifically designed for cruising by a reputable designer will have decent stability, righting index, and so forth. If you're going big, you might want to consider some of the Dashew designs. They have a good track record and I believe Maya is on the market right now.

Even if I had an unlimited budget, I don't think I'd be looking at boats over 25m for full time cruising. That's a lot to manage if it's just you and the wife. As others have pointed out, costs increase exponentially based on LOA. Often when you see a boat that size being run by 2 people, it's a professional captain and crew.

#13 jhiller

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 04:22 PM

Have a look at this. Alubat

Despite being very shoal draft they have quite a good history as world travelers. I think Jimmy Cornell circumnavigated in one

#14 narecet

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 06:22 PM

I wouldn't look at ratio of draft to LOA anyway.

If it were a valid measure (I've never seen anyone say that it is, or any calculation methods that would imply it) then that would require that LOA in and of itself reduces stability. But that is not so.

There is no single simple calculation that gives a really decisive measure for stability in any case, but that one seems more problematic than most.

#15 islandplanet

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 06:44 PM

Have a look at this. Alubat

Despite being very shoal draft they have quite a good history as world travelers. I think Jimmy Cornell circumnavigated in one


Cornell went around on an Ovni 43 but Alubat is quite well regarded and a very viable choice. It's interesting that aluminum centerboarders like the Ovni, Garcia, Alubat, and others only seem to be popular with European sailors. Maybe we Americans are a bit more resistant to change than we should be. The shoal draft of these boats open up so many possibilities. There are enough out there that the concept is quite well proven. Aside from cost, any ideas on why we don't see more of these?

#16 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 06:44 PM

Length/Draft isn't even really used for small boats.
My own boat has a stability graph someplace that shows positive stability out to about 125 degrees +/- (can't recall the exact number). I think there is a capsize screening formula someplace that gives you a rating. Big commercial ships are stable to around 45-60 degrees or so if memory serves. While that would be a disaster for a 40 foot boat, for 700 feet not so much. Same waves acting on a MUCH bigger, heavier, and slower to move object ;)

#17 Bob Perry

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 02:29 AM

Stability is over rated and most often misunderstood.

For instance my own personal Limit of Positive Stability is around 30 degrees. But I don't let that stop me.

#18 Student_Driver

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 02:54 AM

Thanks for the comments and advice.

As context, here are a few of the boats which fit the profile...

http://www.yachtworl...ecked_boats=228

http://www.yachtworl...boat_id=2221312

http://www.yachtworl.../Baleares/Spain

As it will be 12 to 24 months before I'm prepared to make a purchase, it's early days and I'm just thinking things through. I will have 2/3 crew but want electric/hydraulic everything.

As the cost of these boats is not inconsiderable, then I would expect 35% to cover reasonable upgrades.. These boats do not appear to be rust buckets... Idea would be to use the boat a few months at a time over 2 to 3 years of circumnavigation and then sell for something smaller for cruising around New England. I need enough space to have my children (and their friends). My wife can not climb stairs or handle a unstable platform so the larger size, weight and stability are key. I don't think she could handle a crossing with her brain injury and double vision but I'd like her to be able to live aboard for for periods of coastal, onshore cruising.

In any event, am just at the stage where I want to understand the questions I should be asking.

#19 Presuming Ed

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 07:48 AM

If you want stable for the coastal cruising, have you thought about a cat?

(Definition of cruising: fixing stuff in exotic locations).

#20 kdh

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 10:34 AM

Thanks for the comments and advice.

As context, here are a few of the boats which fit the profile...

http://www.yachtworl...ecked_boats=228

http://www.yachtworl...boat_id=2221312

http://www.yachtworl.../Baleares/Spain

As it will be 12 to 24 months before I'm prepared to make a purchase, it's early days and I'm just thinking things through. I will have 2/3 crew but want electric/hydraulic everything.

As the cost of these boats is not inconsiderable, then I would expect 35% to cover reasonable upgrades.. These boats do not appear to be rust buckets... Idea would be to use the boat a few months at a time over 2 to 3 years of circumnavigation and then sell for something smaller for cruising around New England. I need enough space to have my children (and their friends). My wife can not climb stairs or handle a unstable platform so the larger size, weight and stability are key. I don't think she could handle a crossing with her brain injury and double vision but I'd like her to be able to live aboard for for periods of coastal, onshore cruising.

In any event, am just at the stage where I want to understand the questions I should be asking.

What, no security detail? Posted Image Inside joke.

I would worry about getting reliable paid crew. Those are big boats. Little tolerance for mistakes, you can't just push them around while docking, and they won't fit in a lot of places.

I'm sorry about your wife's challenges. Good luck with your plans.

#21 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 12:40 PM

I used to work on an aluminum boat about that size. The boat was very nice and had a full set of 24 volt winches for short handed sailing.
That said, running this boat was an actual paid job for several people and a big deal to manage. Electric/hydraulic systems made for less grunt work but then again they HAD to be working to run the boat safely. While the boat certainly didn't get banged around as much as my 11,000 pound boat, she was FAR from being anything like a gyro-stabilized cruise ship. Considering your wife's difficulties, I might suggest a big cat would be more to her liking.

http://www.yachtworl...g_id=38346&url=

This is just one example I picked. A cat allows the owner, guests, and crew much more privacy than a monohull and in mild/moderate weather will provide a much better ride for your wife*.


*and my wife too, which is why she is never allowed on these boats. She would make me get one after about an hour sailing level and nothing spilling.

#22 sailglobal

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 01:59 PM

[quote name='Student_Driver' timestamp='1341543298' post='3776877']
Thanks for the comments and advice.


Yachtworld <Mehetabel>
If you're serious, you might want to check this out. She is in 'better than new' condition and can be handled by 2 competent persons, fully hydraulic and a great family layout with crew quarters. A very well built and maintained yacht capable of going anywhere in comfort and safety and good looking by most standards. I'm not involved in any way but did sail about 10,000 miles on her. Don't be intimidaated by the price, she's totally up to date and ready to go tomorrow, only expense would be vittles.

#23 Student_Driver

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:11 PM

Why not just buy a proven performer in that size bracket ? Swan Baltic Oyster

All are both European and proven quality performers. Every one sails beautifully.



I love Nautor Swan boats and think that they are sexy, fast and safe.... but they trade at very high price ratios relative to Jongert, Hoek, Trintella etc...

Have not ruled out Swan.. If I were able to afford it, the 85 footer with the raised salon and captive main winch.. or the 90 footer with the lifting keel.. but those boats are 2,3,4 times the cost of the ones I'm looking at...

#24 Student_Driver

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:17 PM

[/quote]
Yachtworld <Mehetabel>
If you're serious, you might want to check this out. She is in 'better than new' condition and can be handled by 2 competent persons, fully hydraulic and a great family layout with crew quarters. A very well built and maintained yacht capable of going anywhere in comfort and safety and good looking by most standards. I'm not involved in any way but did sail about 10,000 miles on her. Don't be intimidaated by the price, she's totally up to date and ready to go tomorrow, only expense would be vittles.
[/quote]


Gorgeous.. and looks great. I'm not planning on buying the boat for another 12-18 months... then I figure 12 months for refit, shakedown, etc...

My son is applying out for boarding schools next year, I have some personal matters including my wife's health to deal with.. so I am not prepared for the distraction which having a boat at this time implies..

Am happy just thinking about it for now.. And trying to edjumacate myself to be able to make better decisions in the future.. also.. looking at boat classifieds is giving me a better understanding of the range in features, configurations, prices, brands etc..

In the end though when ready, I agree that I should have a naval architect as a consultant. Perhaps in a year or so, I'll be visiting Mr Perry's offices.

#25 Ishmael

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:26 PM

kimb posted a link to this boat a while back, he says it's quite nice.

http://www.yachtworl...A/United-States

#26 Student_Driver

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:29 PM

[/quote]
What, no security detail? Posted Image Inside joke.

I would worry about getting reliable paid crew. Those are big boats. Little tolerance for mistakes, you can't just push them around while docking, and they won't fit in a lot of places.

I'm sorry about your wife's challenges. Good luck with your plans.
[/quote]

Thanks for the kind wishes for my wife. She's was attacked 8 months ago here in NY and has suffered major traumatic brain injury as a result.


I think finding capable crew should be relatively easy. Finding the right chemistry and personality mix might be more nuanced. Figured I try to recruit an ex-Naval officer tripe with good small arms, munitions capability. Yes, I've thought a lot about security. One of the reasons (along with strength, easy worldwide repairs) for the choice of steel. Then two junior crew. One for assisting the maintenance, mechanics and driving. Another for cooking, cleaning and general tasks.

About 35 years ago, I was on my grandfather's Stevens cabin cruiser in the Bahamas Out Islands (Abacos, if I recollect correctly) and we were followed by a smaller boat about 1/2 mile back for some time. We shot a few rounds of the 308 rifle into the air and they bailed... The incident with Blake in Brazil and many other stories have me concerned..

I assume that in certain areas, you'll need a watch on deck? In others, perhaps setting a radar perimeter alarm at 1/8 mile around the boat? Motion and/or infrared sensors on deck and possibly... on demand.. electrified door latches and life lines... other plans for security, I'll leave to the captain and advice from others more experienced.. Bottom line is that I'll most likely not be onboard any where near the south asian and east african pirate zones.


Someone mentioned buckley. Actually, I remember reading Atlantic High when it was first published. Have recently read a follow up book. My favorite is when he gets the CEO of HP out of a board meeting to pick up the phone by telling the PA that it was a call from the Marina. Also the lost "Pirate Treasure" and stealing back his own boat...

#27 kimbottles

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:31 PM

kimb posted a link to this boat a while back, he says it's quite nice.

http://www.yachtworl...A/United-States


If I were looking for an offshore cruising boat instead of a daysailor I would have purchased her. But SWMBO says we have done enough offshore sailing and I tend to agree with her. I like anchoring at night and sleeping 7-8 hours.

Call me a wimp.

#28 puddin

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:43 PM

Either this whole thing is a troll, or the OP is looking in the wrong place. I think his desires are a bit beyond the tax bracket of 99% of us. No personal problem with that. Seems what he needs is a good consultant/broker/etc... that's well versed in the type and size of boat he wants to purchase, run, and maintain.

#29 kimbottles

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:54 PM

Either this whole thing is a troll, or the OP is looking in the wrong place. I think his desires are a bit beyond the tax bracket of 99% of us. No personal problem with that. Seems what he needs is a good consultant/broker/etc... that's well versed in the type and size of boat he wants to purchase, run, and maintain.


That's why I suggested he contact Bob Perry.

However this has been an interesting thread. Some nice vessels linked.

#30 Student_Driver

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:55 PM

Puddin, I'm not ready to hire a consultant or broker b/c this voyage is at lead 2 if not 3 years in the future. I'm simply trying to better understand the design, safety and performance considerations for a larger sail boat.. If the conversation is uninteresting or offensive then I suggest you move along. I've been on SA for 7 years and have had an article published by Scott on the Home Page of SA. We happen to have enjoyed huge real estate appreciation in NYC over 20 years and when the kids are in college/boarding school, we can sell property and buy a nice boat. We've been lucky.

#31 Student_Driver

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 04:01 PM

My wife

http://www.nytimes.c...n-icu.html?_r=1

#32 Tucky

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 04:01 PM

Either this whole thing is a troll, or the OP is looking in the wrong place. I think his desires are a bit beyond the tax bracket of 99% of us. No personal problem with that. Seems what he needs is a good consultant/broker/etc... that's well versed in the type and size of boat he wants to purchase, run, and maintain.



I don't think this is the wrong place and, even if it is, that shlouldn't stop folksPosted Image I've never been any more than a passenger on a crewed sailboat, but plenty of people here have plenty of experience with these types of boats.

A friend runs a marina/boatyard. Last night he told me that a 130' Feadship had stopped in on their way from Nantucket to Northeast Harbor and put 9,000 gallons @ $4 into the tank- Amex card. Said they were running quick and had used that from Nantucket- splash and go on the way east.

Now that is something I have no experience with- my normal practice of "helping with the gas" wouldn't apply here.



#33 Student_Driver

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 04:06 PM

Tucky.. thanks.. funny story... Even if I could afford it, I think it would make me sick to burn 120gph or even 40gph... one of the reasons I like sails.. Wont feel any environmental or financial remorse for taking the boat out of the marina... well there's always a cost..

#34 islandplanet

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 04:15 PM

What, no security detail? Posted Image Inside joke.

About 35 years ago, I was on my grandfather's Stevens cabin cruiser in the Bahamas Out Islands (Abacos, if I recollect correctly) and we were followed by a smaller boat about 1/2 mile back for some time. We shot a few rounds of the 308 rifle into the air and they bailed... The incident with Blake in Brazil and many other stories have me concerned..


Was there some indication they were up to no good and not just trying sell some lobster, trade stuff, or bum some water? I haven't had the pleasure of cruising in the Abacos but I've been approached by boats in other areas for a variety of reasons. In a few cases it was fishermen warning us about gear in the water that was not well marked. Others, just guys wanting to sell or trade.

#35 Student_Driver

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 04:34 PM

In the mid-80s the drug scene in Miami and the Bahamas was much more violent and less undercover. It was not uncommon, at the time, for smugglers to capture a yacht in the Bahamas, kill the crew, and then use the boat for a drug run... typically, run the boat onto land/beach somewhere secluded in FLA for the off take. This smaller outboard boat was following our path and turns whilst matching our speed (approx 18 knots) We were in a large body of water where there were no channels or land masses which restricted their movement. In any event, we did not point our ordinance at them, we just tested a rifle by shooting at clouds..no harm, no foul... and they immediately turned away...

#36 kimbottles

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 04:52 PM

My wife

http://www.nytimes.c...n-icu.html?_r=1


Sounds like a hell of a gal, I hope she continues to recover. I wish her the best for the future.

Kim Bottles
Blakely Harbor, WA

#37 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 05:16 PM

I am saying this in the nicest way - I think you may need to do a bit more research into offshore sailing and hiring a crew.
The crew on a naval vessel HAS to be there or go to jail. Not so with you and your family. The style of command is a bit different. You weren't clear about if this person would be the captain or you would be. Serving as your 1st mate might also take some adapting for a naval officer, not to mention a fair number of them might be pretty close to useless on a small (to them) sailboat anyway.
You also need to think about the numbers. I don't know how you count yourself and various family members and guests as able bodied crew vs. passengers, but 4 decent sailors in a storm offshore is a little thin for MY boat if any significant sail handling needs to be done. Not saying your plan isn't viable, but you would be quite well served by doing a charter on a boat like this and seeing how things get done and how many people are doing it.


I think finding capable crew should be relatively easy. Finding the right chemistry and personality mix might be more nuanced. Figured I try to recruit an ex-Naval officer tripe with good small arms, munitions capability. Yes, I've thought a lot about security. One of the reasons (along with strength, easy worldwide repairs) for the choice of steel. Then two junior crew. One for assisting the maintenance, mechanics and driving. Another for cooking, cleaning and general tasks.



#38 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 05:21 PM

My wife

http://www.nytimes.c...n-icu.html?_r=1


:(

My best wishes for your wife's recovery.

#39 islandplanet

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 06:19 PM

My wife

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/02/nyregion/woman-hit-by-shopping-cart-in-harlem-is-still-in-icu.html?_r=1


That is heartbreaking to read. What a tragic and senseless crime. Please pass on our wishes for her recovery and a thanks for her philanthropic work.

#40 Bob Perry

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 06:27 PM

Student;
I am very sorry that happened. I hope she recovers quickly.

#41 IrieMon

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 06:44 PM

I recall reading about this senseless tragedy when it occurred. Prayed for your wonderful wife then, and will continue....her public forgiveness is inspiring. I certainly hope you reach your dreams and her recovery is aided by the sea...

Also hoping the juvenile justice system is successful in rehabilitating such "children".

#42 blackjenner

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 06:54 PM

My wife

http://www.nytimes.c...n-icu.html?_r=1


Oh man. How senseless a thing to have happen. I hope she recovers.

#43 Innocent Bystander

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 07:04 PM

I recall reading about this senseless tragedy when it occurred. Prayed for your wonderful wife then, and will continue....her public forgiveness is inspiring. I certainly hope you reach your dreams and her recovery is aided by the sea...

Also hoping the juvenile justice system is successful in rehabilitating such "children".


And I. I can remember thinking how senseless this was what I heard about it. All the best for continued recovery.

#44 wick

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 07:21 PM

Student,

Keep working on your plan and asking questions everywhere so you can refine it. Glad you have the family with you to plan for this.

#45 Presuming Ed

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 06:47 AM

I sail with a few people who's last boat was an 80' sloop, which had a skipper, cook and a couple of paid hands, so my knowledge of crew related issues is second hand, but anyway.

AIUI, paid crew adds significant headaches to boat ownership. The skillset is not trivial - you want people who can look after the boat (nav, sail safely, keep on top of the maintenance/repair schedule of all the kit...etc) as well as effectively run a hotel AND understand that whilst they are the experts, you are the boss. The big problem is that the guys who are really good at this are on the biggest/most expensive boats - $5million plus.

Best wishes for your wife's recovery.



#46 jhiller

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 10:44 AM

Student....
Speaking as a guy who has owned 27 boats since 1974 I've learned a few things. I hope you understand that I'm not lecturing but just rying to give you food for thought. my largest boats were a Nordhavn 57 followed by a Hinckley 50 and a Valiant 50. The Nordhavn needed crew it was so big. I hated that. If you can't walk around in your underwear in the morning the boat isn't worth a shit !
The Hinkley and Valiant were both lovely but the main was a handful when it was just the wife and me. So long as the kids were about it was ok but otherwise it was like a 5000 sq ft house for two people.

Tine and lots of sea water under my keel ( I am increasing my ballast yearly) have tought me that there are 3 golden means of boats. a 30-32 ft sailboat is perfect for a day sailor( I have a Contessa 32 and it is a splendid way to spend a day or even take a nap). a 36-40 ft motor boat is perfect for 2 people ( currently I have a Bruckmann 36.6 North Star and love it) and a nicely sized liveaboard sailboat is about 45 feet. When you begin looking at sizes of 80 ft the boat owns you and you will spend much more time looking at it and fixing it than truly enjoying it. There is nothng that an 80 footer can do that a 45 footer can't just as well and you won't need a support staff to enjoy it.
In any event enjoy the ride . Choosing a boat can be more fun that owning it

#47 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 03:14 PM

http://www.yachtworl...g_id=51350&url=

I have worked on these. IMHO seriously nice and safe boats for offshore and very well setup for ease of operation by a small crew. Best of luck whatever you pick, but do think about what managing a yacht with paid crew entails. I used to work on some of them and it can be far more of a PITA than you might think.


Student....
Speaking as a guy who has owned 27 boats since 1974 I've learned a few things. I hope you understand that I'm not lecturing but just rying to give you food for thought. my largest boats were a Nordhavn 57 followed by a Hinckley 50 and a Valiant 50. The Nordhavn needed crew it was so big. I hated that. If you can't walk around in your underwear in the morning the boat isn't worth a shit !
The Hinkley and Valiant were both lovely but the main was a handful when it was just the wife and me. So long as the kids were about it was ok but otherwise it was like a 5000 sq ft house for two people.

Tine and lots of sea water under my keel ( I am increasing my ballast yearly) have tought me that there are 3 golden means of boats. a 30-32 ft sailboat is perfect for a day sailor( I have a Contessa 32 and it is a splendid way to spend a day or even take a nap). a 36-40 ft motor boat is perfect for 2 people ( currently I have a Bruckmann 36.6 North Star and love it) and a nicely sized liveaboard sailboat is about 45 feet. When you begin looking at sizes of 80 ft the boat owns you and you will spend much more time looking at it and fixing it than truly enjoying it. There is nothng that an 80 footer can do that a 45 footer can't just as well and you won't need a support staff to enjoy it.
In any event enjoy the ride . Choosing a boat can be more fun that owning it



#48 Student_Driver

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 04:18 PM

Thanks everyone for the kind wishes regarding Marion's recovery. Unfortunately, the combination of hypoxia (her heart was stopped for several minutes) and the traumatic brain injury will result in permanent impairments. We met the Doctor who saved her life and he admitted that she had turned blue by the time he got to her side (he'd been in an elevator) and began CPR. Marion has many impairments including: double vision, difficulty walking on uneven surfaces, short term memory impairment to name a few things. The list is too long to mention. She has severe chronic pain and was back in the hospital last week for pain treatment. It's not fun. We only hope that she can resume her charitable work, although her involvement will be less heavy lifting and more fundraising and raising public awareness for volunteerism which is something we can all do, regardless of income or wealth.

Every major news network and show has been and continue to be in touch with us with interest in everything from interviews to documentaries. We have always been private and are saying 'no' for now. If, in the future two conditions are met, we are likely to consider such offers seriously. Firstly, Marion needs to recover. At this time, she can not handle much. Her stamina and focus are too impaired. Secondly, and this is the key, we'd need to be able to channel any media attention in a manner where it generates significant attention, support, involvement and funding for volunteer organizations which support the needy. A particular focus would be inner city youth who have little supervision, opportunities and guidance.

If we do a circumnavigation, a major focus would be to do some amount of charitable work and bring care to the needy in less wealthy parts of the world. Perhaps a sailing analogue of Flying Doctors (now AMRAF). This is still being worked out. Marion would not be happy sitting on a boat if we were not doing some serious good work along the way. I have not done the research yet but my intuition tells me that there are many places where we can either bring care, help organize charitable events or do fundraising. Our philosophy is that we must give back more than we take/consume. Net net, we want to leave a positive karma balance behind.

I appreciate all of the advice. Clearly there is a strong bias against a larger boat. I appreciate that this is well founded and based on experience. Let me provide some context. I've owned several sailboats and power boats. My father and grandfather had boats. I was taking out the family 40 foot sail boat with friends as a teenager and spending 3 to 4 weeks every summer crossing the Gulf and cruising the bahamas on a number of boats owned by my grandfather ranging from 45 to 75, both production and custom. I've been a guest on larger boats and several families with larger boats.

I can appreciate that for long term ownership, having a 'ship' rather than a 'boat' (I never use the 'y' word), creates exponential complexity and expense. Such that, you either spend a minor fortune for a crew and a management company to manage the crew etc.. On the other hand, my grandfather had a husband wife team work for him for 25 years and it worked very well. With the captain, my grandfather (an engineer by training) and myself, we could handle most issues. There was the constant issue with hydraulic controls on most boats which required constant professional care. Electronics die, fluids need changing etc. Same issues as smaller boats but the number of components is n^2, so more problems and more money.

Ongoing maintenance when you're onboard and can do a bit her and there can be long term more efficient than running the boat down and then going into Merrill Stevens for a major refit.

Again, I'd own this boat for 2 years to 3 years and sell it at the end of the trip. .

Again, I recognize that there is much to learn. What would be most helpful would be good books, web sites and other resources which would help me to learn from other's experiences and to better understand naval architecture considerations, metrics which I can use to differentiate boats and design considerations.

To reiterate. I do not plan to buy a boat this year. For many reasons, that's a non starter. Earliest would be next summer, depending on a number of variables which need to play out. So, it's early stages of my road to knowledge. Guidance welcome and appreciated.

Have been considering a circumnavigation since my teen years. Have read every issue of cruising magazine since then devouring articles about ocean passages. Have read many books (the usual suspects) about individuals and families doing ocean passages on smaller boats. And have read 2 of W. Buckley's books which are more on point as his boats were larger. When we moved to NYC (from Kingston Jamaica), I lived in the same building as the Naval Architect Frank Maclear. Sitting on my Dad's sailboat on a day sail in Gardiner's Bay 25 years ago he gave me 2 bits of advice. One I plan to ignore. Firstly, he advised me never to own a boat if you have friends who own boats. Too much of a pain. I've bought and sold several boats since then. The second bit of advice which he gave me which I do observe is as follows. Never go to sea in a boat whose length in feet does not exceed, by a comfortable margin, your age in years.

Thanks again for the kind thoughts and great advice.

#49 longy

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 11:27 PM

I have run a Baltic 51, a Swan 65, and am currently immersed in a major re-hab of a 70' cruising sailboat. Modern sailboats are orders of magnitude more complicated than what your Grandfather had. Looking at all the boats linked to on this thread, basic maintenance & housekeeping chores will keep you tied to the boat 24/7. At this size/complexity, if you want to get off the boat at all you will have to have crew. Even hiring day workers (very common for the big boats) you will have to have someone there to manage them. If you have to hire smart help, the costs will jump. Many (if not most) of the boats in this size range will not have well thought out redundant systems/work a rounds, so any breakdown requires immediate work to maintain the level of comfort you're looking for.
It's much better economically to let the previous owner pay for the rebuild - there is not much of a return on investment for repair work.Of course, you need to be able to discern if the overhaul was competent/thorough and not just a cosmetic fluff & buff to sell the boat.

#50 Jose Carumba

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Posted 08 July 2012 - 03:39 AM

First let me offer my hope that your wife makes speedy progress in recovering from her terribly unfortunate accident. I also admire her and your efforts to make the world a better place.

I work in the large yacht building business. Over the years I have noticed that the smoothest builds come when the owner and the captain have had good understanding of each other and a sympathetic relationship and so can work together smoothly on a project. Should you decide to go with a paid captain it seems to me you may want to consider finding a captain first. Someone who has experience in the type of boat you are considering, and the style of cruising you enjoy. Having that person in the loop from the beginning can reap dividends down the road.

#51 jhiller

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Posted 08 July 2012 - 11:24 AM

Here is your ticket to an expensive, albeit seemless way to get everything you want...... Jens Cornelsen

Student , I understand your situation much better and you are correct. A big comfy boat with a crew will make it possible and enjoyable. Given your situation I would do the same. Good luck

#52 sailglobal

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Posted 08 July 2012 - 12:57 PM

[quote name='Student_Driver' timestamp='1341590134' post='3777358']
Puddin, I'm not ready to hire a consultant or broker b/c this voyage is at lead 2 if not 3 years in the future. I'm simply trying to better understand the design, safety and performance considerations for a larger sail boat..



Student, if you're really serious, now is when you should be consulting a pro. It will help you figure out the logistical and financial perameters of such a wonderful 'dream'. It's going to take 2 years or more to get a program like you desire together. The aquisition, planning and refit on a boat in the size catagary and price range you indicate will consume a lot of time and then you've got design/specifics and engineering to accomplish, you'll be behind your schedule before you know it. When you think the job's all done you'll need a season testing and acclimating yourselves to the boat (yacht to be precise) before you embark on the trip. There are actually people here giving you advise who have done what you plan to do and know that preparation is time consuming, unless you plan on throwing bucketloads of dineros at it and having a big crew rush the job, (usually ending in disaster).
We all commiserate with you and your wonderfully charitable wife and maybe a project like this will help divert some of her attention and provide an incentive to overcome some of her discomfort. I wish both of you well and look forward to hearing reports of your expedition.

#53 Student_Driver

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Posted 08 July 2012 - 03:28 PM

[/quote]
Student, if you're really serious, now is when you should be consulting a pro. It will help you figure out the logistical and financial perameters of such a wonderful 'dream'. It's going to take 2 years or more to get a program like you desire together. The aquisition, planning and refit on a boat in the size catagary and price range you indicate will consume a lot of time and then you've got design/specifics and engineering to accomplish, you'll be behind your schedule before you know it. When you think the job's all done you'll need a season testing and acclimating yourselves to the boat (yacht to be precise) before you embark on the trip. There are actually people here giving you advise who have done what you plan to do and know that preparation is time consuming, unless you plan on throwing bucketloads of dineros at it and having a big crew rush the job, (usually ending in disaster).
We all commiserate with you and your wonderfully charitable wife and maybe a project like this will help divert some of her attention and provide an incentive to overcome some of her discomfort. I wish both of you well and look forward to hearing reports of your expedition.
[/quote]


Sailglobal, I don't doubt that you are correct. I am way over bandwidth right now with my wife's ongoing care, family issues/fallout of the attack and my current professional activities. I can't take onboard another major focus at this time. Hence, the likely outcome is that the trip timeline will follow it's natural course once I am able to take onboard another endeavor. At this time, I want to read, research and contemplate at night rather than watching tv, thinking about sailing is the only think that keeps me sane.

In order or priority, it's my wife's care, which takes a lot of time; getting the children over the trauma and creating some sense of normalcy for them, focusing on my current professional obligations and formulating a strategy for a charitable endeavor which will hopefully use the focus on Marion to have an impact on those in need while also encouraging more volunteerism. If we do the trip, it needs to dovetail with this charitable endeavor such that on various stops we can interact with those in need and those giving aid to bring whatever support we can. So thinking about a boat is relaxing but the actual effort, time and cognitive bandwidth is not there now. My hope is that Marion will be sufficiently recovered such that with her care giver, she can be more independent. The children also need a lot of time right now. It's private but you can imagine what we are going through.

Buying a toy right now is not in the cards. Of course, there is the strong chance that Marion may never be well enough to set foot on a boat and this trip may never happen. Only time will tell. For sure, she's never going to be safe on a boat with steep companionway stairs or the other aspects of smaller boats which require agility, good vision and balance.

My guess is that it plays out like this. Buy a capable boat built around or after 1990 for $XX. Spend 25% of X for a refit. Spend 20% of X per year to cruise, provision, insure and crew the boat. Sell the boat after for 75% of X. Net net, for a 2 year cruise, a total cost of close to $XX. I think that's the upper boundary. I suspect that on the lower end, one might be able to spend 15% of X on a refit and 15% per year and sell for 85% for a total cost of 60% of $XX. Somewhere in between 60% and 100% of $XX is the cost of the trip.

In all honesty, we have many hurdles to cross before I can seriously begin to plan, but thinking about sailing is a good de-stressor. Rather than watch TV at night, I'd like to do research and learn more about the metrics which do matter in boat design. Perhaps what I am looking for is Naval Architecture 101 for Dummies. Is there such a book? I'm comfortable with Calculus as math is a core competency for my profession but I've never studied topography.

#54 Bob Perry

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Posted 08 July 2012 - 04:17 PM

Student:
Yes there is such a book. It will not make you an expert. It will not give you the definitive answers I think you may be looking for, they don't exist. But it will give an excellent overview of design elements.
The book is, YACHT DESIGN EXPLAINED by Steve Killing.

The best way to learn about yacht design is to go sailing. Then you come home, pull out the book and try to put the pieces together.
You wouldn't study dogs without having a dog around. Would you?

#55 Ishmael

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Posted 08 July 2012 - 04:23 PM

Sailglobal, I don't doubt that you are correct. I am way over bandwidth right now with my wife's ongoing care, family issues/fallout of the attack and my current professional activities. I can't take onboard another major focus at this time. Hence, the likely outcome is that the trip timeline will follow it's natural course once I am able to take onboard another endeavor. At this time, I want to read, research and contemplate at night rather than watching tv, thinking about sailing is the only think that keeps me sane.

In order or priority, it's my wife's care, which takes a lot of time; getting the children over the trauma and creating some sense of normalcy for them, focusing on my current professional obligations and formulating a strategy for a charitable endeavor which will hopefully use the focus on Marion to have an impact on those in need while also encouraging more volunteerism. If we do the trip, it needs to dovetail with this charitable endeavor such that on various stops we can interact with those in need and those giving aid to bring whatever support we can. So thinking about a boat is relaxing but the actual effort, time and cognitive bandwidth is not there now. My hope is that Marion will be sufficiently recovered such that with her care giver, she can be more independent. The children also need a lot of time right now. It's private but you can imagine what we are going through.

Buying a toy right now is not in the cards. Of course, there is the strong chance that Marion may never be well enough to set foot on a boat and this trip may never happen. Only time will tell. For sure, she's never going to be safe on a boat with steep companionway stairs or the other aspects of smaller boats which require agility, good vision and balance.

My guess is that it plays out like this. Buy a capable boat built around or after 1990 for $XX. Spend 25% of X for a refit. Spend 20% of X per year to cruise, provision, insure and crew the boat. Sell the boat after for 75% of X. Net net, for a 2 year cruise, a total cost of close to $XX. I think that's the upper boundary. I suspect that on the lower end, one might be able to spend 15% of X on a refit and 15% per year and sell for 85% for a total cost of 60% of $XX. Somewhere in between 60% and 100% of $XX is the cost of the trip.

In all honesty, we have many hurdles to cross before I can seriously begin to plan, but thinking about sailing is a good de-stressor. Rather than watch TV at night, I'd like to do research and learn more about the metrics which do matter in boat design. Perhaps what I am looking for is Naval Architecture 101 for Dummies. Is there such a book? I'm comfortable with Calculus as math is a core competency for my profession but I've never studied topography.


There are a few books that stand out:

Attached File  books.jpg   383.58K   44 downloads

These would be the top 5 from my library.

#56 kimbottles

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Posted 08 July 2012 - 04:53 PM

1341764581[/url]' post='3778947']

1341761291[/url]' post='3778898']
Sailglobal, I don't doubt that you are correct. I am way over bandwidth right now with my wife's ongoing care, family issues/fallout of the attack and my current professional activities. I can't take onboard another major focus at this time. Hence, the likely outcome is that the trip timeline will follow it's natural course once I am able to take onboard another endeavor. At this time, I want to read, research and contemplate at night rather than watching tv, thinking about sailing is the only think that keeps me sane.

In order or priority, it's my wife's care, which takes a lot of time; getting the children over the trauma and creating some sense of normalcy for them, focusing on my current professional obligations and formulating a strategy for a charitable endeavor which will hopefully use the focus on Marion to have an impact on those in need while also encouraging more volunteerism. If we do the trip, it needs to dovetail with this charitable endeavor such that on various stops we can interact with those in need and those giving aid to bring whatever support we can. So thinking about a boat is relaxing but the actual effort, time and cognitive bandwidth is not there now. My hope is that Marion will be sufficiently recovered such that with her care giver, she can be more independent. The children also need a lot of time right now. It's private but you can imagine what we are going through.

Buying a toy right now is not in the cards. Of course, there is the strong chance that Marion may never be well enough to set foot on a boat and this trip may never happen. Only time will tell. For sure, she's never going to be safe on a boat with steep companionway stairs or the other aspects of smaller boats which require agility, good vision and balance.

My guess is that it plays out like this. Buy a capable boat built around or after 1990 for $XX. Spend 25% of X for a refit. Spend 20% of X per year to cruise, provision, insure and crew the boat. Sell the boat after for 75% of X. Net net, for a 2 year cruise, a total cost of close to $XX. I think that's the upper boundary. I suspect that on the lower end, one might be able to spend 15% of X on a refit and 15% per year and sell for 85% for a total cost of 60% of $XX. Somewhere in between 60% and 100% of $XX is the cost of the trip.

In all honesty, we have many hurdles to cross before I can seriously begin to plan, but thinking about sailing is a good de-stressor. Rather than watch TV at night, I'd like to do research and learn more about the metrics which do matter in boat design. Perhaps what I am looking for is Naval Architecture 101 for Dummies. Is there such a book? I'm comfortable with Calculus as math is a core competency for my profession but I've never studied topography.


There are a few books that stand out:

Attached File  books.jpg   383.58K   44 downloads

These would be the top 5 from my library.


+1All excellent books!

#57 Jose Carumba

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Posted 08 July 2012 - 07:21 PM

Student:
Yes there is such a book. It will not make you an expert. It will not give you the definitive answers I think you may be looking for, they don't exist. But it will give an excellent overview of design elements.
The book is, YACHT DESIGN EXPLAINED by Steve Killing.

The best way to learn about yacht design is to go sailing. Then you come home, pull out the book and try to put the pieces together.
You wouldn't study dogs without having a dog around. Would you?


+1

#58 Student_Driver

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Posted 09 July 2012 - 02:06 AM

[/quote]
There are a few books that stand out:

Attached File  books.jpg   383.58K   44 downloads

These would be the top 5 from my library.


+1All excellent books!
[/quote]


Thanks very much. Headed to Amazon now!

#59 Heavy Metal

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Posted 09 July 2012 - 04:48 AM

Im not sure if these have popped up on your radar, but they are a very well regarded cruiser down this way, and not to slugish around the race track either. Largist is 16.5m, which might be on the small side for you. Lift keel.

http://www.elliott-m...com/e1650t.html

Could be worth a look.

#60 Joli

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Posted 09 July 2012 - 02:22 PM

Very sorry to hear about your wife. I read about the attack last year, how awful, I wish her a speedy recovery.

As others said these are large boats, small ships weighing around 150,000#s. These are not light weight boats docking in a breeze could provide some anxious moments.

The mainsails are 1,500 to 2,000 sq. ft., the boom will be 7~8' above the deck so the headboard will be 14~16' above the deck. A main with hardware probably weighs close to 500#s. Simply putting it to bed will be a chore, reefing will be a workout.

All the boats you're looking at appear to be system rich and will not be simple to maintain. Crew that can maintain those systems may be scarce?

Can these boats be sailed and maintained by a couple or a small crew? Sure, but instead of focusing on the boat it may be beneficial to determine if a crew can be had and for how much?

#61 Student_Driver

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Posted 09 July 2012 - 08:12 PM

Very sorry to hear about your wife. I read about the attack last year, how awful, I wish her a speedy recovery.

As others said these are large boats, small ships weighing around 150,000#s. These are not light weight boats docking in a breeze could provide some anxious moments.

The mainsails are 1,500 to 2,000 sq. ft., the boom will be 7~8' above the deck so the headboard will be 14~16' above the deck. A main with hardware probably weighs close to 500#s. Simply putting it to bed will be a chore, reefing will be a workout.

All the boats you're looking at appear to be system rich and will not be simple to maintain. Crew that can maintain those systems may be scarce?

Can these boats be sailed and maintained by a couple or a small crew? Sure, but instead of focusing on the boat it may be beneficial to determine if a crew can be had and for how much?


Fair point. Need to research the crew requirements and cost considerations.

#62 us7070

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Posted 09 July 2012 - 10:28 PM


Very sorry to hear about your wife. I read about the attack last year, how awful, I wish her a speedy recovery.

As others said these are large boats, small ships weighing around 150,000#s. These are not light weight boats docking in a breeze could provide some anxious moments.

The mainsails are 1,500 to 2,000 sq. ft., the boom will be 7~8' above the deck so the headboard will be 14~16' above the deck. A main with hardware probably weighs close to 500#s. Simply putting it to bed will be a chore, reefing will be a workout.

All the boats you're looking at appear to be system rich and will not be simple to maintain. Crew that can maintain those systems may be scarce?

Can these boats be sailed and maintained by a couple or a small crew? Sure, but instead of focusing on the boat it may be beneficial to determine if a crew can be had and for how much?


Fair point. Need to research the crew requirements and cost considerations.



boats in the 75-80ft range often have one captain and one mate - commonly they come as a package deal...

frequently for deliveries, with or without the owner aboard, they will hire one or two of their friends from the business at a day-rate, with transportation covered as well.

i'm not sure how that might work out for a circumnavigation, as the "deliveries" are part of the fun, and might not be distinct from the stayovers.

it's probably not as appealing, but if you were to do something like the World Arc, it would be easy to find people willing to do crew on the different legs - for free.

Oyster have their own round-the-world event, but of course, you have to have one of their boats. It's a little more exclusive than the world Arc, I think, but also pretty easy to get crew to do the legs. I think on the Oyster version, the boats go their own way for a few weeks after each passage, and the reconvene for the next passage. Oyster put on a social program at the beginning and end of each leg. I've been to an Oyster event, and it's ok...

a big Oyster - like the 82 might not be a bad boat for what you want to do. the boats are not very nimble, but do well on the ocean, and are quite comfortable. They are very solidly built. They are expensive, but have a loyal following, and retain value pretty well. most of them are kept in quite good condition, and you might get one that didn't need so much re-fitting. you would definitely want a captain. most of them have hydraulic furling, and in spite of all the warnings you will get from people here, the systems generally work quite well. Big Oysters go around the world all the time. To me, the biggest issue is the compromised performance of the in-mast furling - but maybe that's a good trade off for you. some of the bigger ones have in-boom furling. With hydraulic furling, you really can sail these big boats with two on a watch.

#63 Thorvald

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Posted 09 July 2012 - 11:09 PM

Very sorry to hear about your wife. The world is an insane place sometimes. + 1 on the sailing and reading of the books. Most gratifying type of escape I can think of.

#64 SemiSalt

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Posted 10 July 2012 - 03:22 PM

I think that the pictures linked to in the South Georgia thread answer a lot of questions.

#65 miscut jib

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 04:12 AM

Best wishes to you and your wife SD.

I'm planning a circumnav in the distant future on a (much) smaller budget. Ne'er the less, I've found a functional analysis useful in winnowing down what I want from a boat and how much to budget. As well looking at charts, pictures and reports of distant lands is incredibly good fun. It may be different because I'm looking to connect a bunch of interesting places, and do some different things (surf, dive, climb, hike), and as it happens to work out a circumnav is the easiest way to go about this - but it sounds like some seriuosly worthwhile social work is important to you, which may place limitations on the where, and make requisitions on what you need from a boat. Out of the way Patagonian cruising has different requirements than tropical latitudes.

#66 Paps

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Posted 14 July 2012 - 10:16 AM

My wife

http://www.nytimes.c...n-icu.html?_r=1



In the mid-80s the drug scene in Miami and the Bahamas was much more violent and less undercover. It was not uncommon, at the time, for smugglers to capture a yacht in the Bahamas, kill the crew, and then use the boat for a drug run... typically, run the boat onto land/beach somewhere secluded in FLA for the off take. This smaller outboard boat was following our path and turns whilst matching our speed (approx 18 knots) We were in a large body of water where there were no channels or land masses which restricted their movement. In any event, we did not point our ordinance at them, we just tested a rifle by shooting at clouds..no harm, no foul... and they immediately turned away...


Sorry people but my bullshit meter just went off the scale. This guy is a troll. His wife is in rehab and he is regaling us with Miami drug stories while considering a 100' yacht to circumnavigate.

Please.

I was in Miami in 1980 and working as a marine mechanic, hey they all paid cash, right?:

This guy is bullshit.

#67 narecet

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Posted 14 July 2012 - 02:54 PM

I was in Miami from '83 to '87 and while I can't say for a fact that such a thing never happened - all kinds of things happen that you don't hear about -- agreed, there is no way this was common.

But at least the OP is planning on a security detail. Ex-Naval officers, in this case.

#68 jhiller

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Posted 14 July 2012 - 03:16 PM

I can..... I was living on a 27 foot trimaran in the Abacos then. There were a few black ultra-fast speedboats in West End and a crashed plane at Great Sale Cay that was supposedly on a drug run The boats would sometimes leave at night and return in the morning. That was the closest thing I ever saw to drug running.

It was much safer there than it was in my hometown of Detroit. I never saw anything but a bunch of lovely people in Abaco. I carried a shotgun onboard because I'd heard the bullshit too. Never needed it . It was a splendid place then and I still return often and see friends who I met many years ago. Anyone who says otherwise is full of crap. Other than a single instance of a drunk local stealing stuff from a boat in Marsh Harbour I never saw anything criminal.

#69 Paps

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Posted 15 July 2012 - 12:49 AM

My point exactly. With literally hundreds of high speed powerboats in Florida set up exactly for this purpose, why complicate things by stealing a yacht and killing people??

Smugglers dont turn up in the Bahamas with no plan. And as far as loading the gear on a slow sailboat and then parking it on a beach for the unload, thats fanciful. What do they do then, steal a pick up and haul the stuff up to Miami and set up a roadside stall?

Hiring some idiot willing to sail the gear up from Colombia and then chucking them overboard on arrival, now thats a possible.

#70 Willy T

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Posted 15 July 2012 - 03:43 AM

Look at cats. I did an atlantic crossin on a 55 ft outremer. Super fast, super roomy. Just plan accordingly on your winds. Upwind isnt the quickest, reaches were great.

Stable, easy to sail, we were bbqing flat at 15 knots....

#71 Bob Perry

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Posted 15 July 2012 - 02:17 PM

Paps:
I agree with you.

#72 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 15 July 2012 - 08:54 PM

Every organized smuggling and/or pirate scene attracts a fringe of disorganized low-lifes that would be the ones doing the bad shit to random boats. No even semi-successful smuggling group would be doing piracy and murder - too much attention they don't need ;)

As for the sunken drug plane, we dove on it! The plane was shot down.
As for sending "suspicious" boats elsewhere with a live fire demo, that did happen more than once. The ratio of pirates chased off to fisherman scared by crazy white people is not entirely clear :rolleyes: I can even claim one myself. Amazing what a magnesium flare will do to send your new best friend elsewhere :lol:


My point exactly. With literally hundreds of high speed powerboats in Florida set up exactly for this purpose, why complicate things by stealing a yacht and killing people??

Smugglers dont turn up in the Bahamas with no plan. And as far as loading the gear on a slow sailboat and then parking it on a beach for the unload, thats fanciful. What do they do then, steal a pick up and haul the stuff up to Miami and set up a roadside stall?

Hiring some idiot willing to sail the gear up from Colombia and then chucking them overboard on arrival, now thats a possible.

Attached Files



#73 Whisper

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 01:28 AM

Wow, guys!

If that really is his wife, and if he's trying to channel his stray thoughts into positive dreams about the future rather than self-destructing from the nightmare he may never awaken from, then you are colder motherfuckers than I.

I went a period of years between boats as I was killing myself to get ahead in a career and raise young kids, etc. Time flies. Then 9 years ago I was told I'd be dead around 28 months later. I was bed ridden for years. I dreamed about sailing again, knowing that was impossible. My predicted expiration date passed, and I started dreaming even more to keep my mind off the ticking timebomb of my pronosis. Finally, I said "fuck it!" Bought another boat, taught my family how to sail me around, and started living again. I'm not counting days anymore, and my expiration date seems decades into the future.

It's good to think positively. Don't begrudge the guy for grasping at boat dreams when his wife's prognosis remains uncertain. It could make the difference in getting their lives back on track.

#74 Paps

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Posted 16 July 2012 - 08:57 AM

The important words there are "If it is". We have had a few of these of late Whisper.

Glad to hear the Docs got it wrong in your case.

#75 Student_Driver

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 06:58 PM

Paps,

If you've never seen a black swan, that does not prove that they do not exist. Firstly, we were not on a slow sailboat. We were on motor yacht (Stevens) capable of cruising at 22kts. Before the idea of mother ships and fast boats became prevalent (or had even been thought of), motor yachts and commercial ships were the prevalent method of bringing drugs into the country. The fact that you don't know or others did not see it whilst living in FL or the Bahamas implies nothing. In fact, the most likely statistical probability (the Bayesian Prior) is that most people would not see a rare event. Drug smugglers looking for a private boat to steal are not on every corner. Statistically, rare events are not seen by most people. The fact that most people did not experience it, does not prove it improbable in the least. You might enjoy a great book by Nobel Prize Economist Daniel Kahneman titled Fast Thinking, Slow Thinking. It's about the high frequency which we (all, myself included) make poor statistical inferences.

As for who I am, I'll PM you some information.

Best Michael

#76 kimbottles

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 07:10 PM

Paps,

If you've never seen a black swan, that does not prove that they do not exist. Firstly, we were not on a slow sailboat. We were on motor yacht (Stevens) capable of cruising at 22kts. Before the idea of mother ships and fast boats became prevalent (or had even been thought of), motor yachts and commercial ships were the prevalent method of bringing drugs into the country. The fact that you don't know or others did not see it whilst living in FL or the Bahamas implies nothing. In fact, the most likely statistical probability (the Bayesian Prior) is that most people would not see a rare event. Drug smugglers looking for a private boat to steal are not on every corner. Statistically, rare events are not seen by most people. The fact that most people did not experience it, does not prove it improbable in the least. You might enjoy a great book by Nobel Prize Economist Daniel Kahneman titled Fast Thinking, Slow Thinking. It's about the high frequency which we (all, myself included) make poor statistical inferences.

As for who I am, I'll PM you some information.

Best Michael


A very good book and really hits the nail hard (on my head that is...)

One of the few books I have downloaded onto my Kindle App on the iPad. (Bob's book is another.)

#77 Student_Driver

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 08:31 PM

From a 1986 Article in the LA Times.

"When you steal a boat on the open seas, you often steal its human cargo--the pilot, the passengers, the crew," a Coast Guard spokesman explained. "The first thing you want to do is get rid of witnesses. Dead men, as Captain John Silver used to say, tell no tales."Sometimes crews survive, of course, to tell hair-raisers. Mates aboard the Kamalii, a 75-foot motor sailboat hijacked at gunpoint from a Hawaii port, were set adrift in the shark-infested Pacific on a tiny raft without food and water. Eventually, they were spotted by a passing freighter.

Held at Knifepoint

The 37-foot cruiser Whip Ray was attacked off Andros Islands, Bahamas, by a handful of "assailing criminals." The ship's owner was held at knifepoint. Before his wife could be raped, he managed to grab a gun and kill his attackers. He narrowly avoided prosecution by Bahamian authorities for murder.


http://articles.latimes.com/1986-04-27/news/mn-24074_1_easy-money

To be fair, I found another article from 1992 which states that the belief in drug smuggling pirate was overblown by media hype. See excerpt below.

A persistent rumor is that drug smugglers will board recreational boats at sea, murder the crew and take the vessel for smuggling," a statement by the Coast Guard's Miami office says. "There are no known cases of this occurring. It would not make sense for smugglers to take a boat which would then become the subject of a Coast Guard search."

http://articles.latimes.com/1992-02-24/local/me-1961_1_robert-axelrod

Whether the persistent news stories were exaggerated or not, I can not say for sure. But we certainly believed that the boat following us was a threat and we took a precautionary measure. They might have been innocent. I cant say for sure but there was zero reason for them to be trailing us at 18kts in 25 foot twin O/B in deep water and more than 25 miles from the nearest marina or port. To clarify, deep water in the Bahamas usually means less than 100 feet. What I mean to say is that we were not restricted by a channel where their following our path would have made sense.

FWIW, Tom Clancy obviously had been reading the same news stories as me given the opening scene in Clear and Present Danger.

Lastly, I point you to this statement on the US State Department Web site.

Some organized crime activity is believed to occur in The Bahamas, primarily related to the illegal importation and smuggling of illicit drugs or human trafficking. The Bahamas, due to its numerous uninhabited islands and cays, has historically been favored by smugglers and pirates. Most visitors to The Bahamas would not have noticeable interaction with organized crime elements; however, persons who operate their own water craft or air craft should be alert to the possibility of encountering similar vessels operated by smugglers engaged in illicit activities on the open seas or air space in or near The Bahamas.


#78 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 09:15 PM

OTOH everyone thought WE were the smugglers when we laid a string of strobes out to find a night dive spot. We had the USCG helo and everything!

#79 Paps

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 09:14 AM

Paps,

If you've never seen a black swan, that does not prove that they do not exist. Firstly, we were not on a slow sailboat. We were on motor yacht (Stevens) capable of cruising at 22kts. Before the idea of mother ships and fast boats became prevalent (or had even been thought of), motor yachts and commercial ships were the prevalent method of bringing drugs into the country. The fact that you don't know or others did not see it whilst living in FL or the Bahamas implies nothing. In fact, the most likely statistical probability (the Bayesian Prior) is that most people would not see a rare event. Drug smugglers looking for a private boat to steal are not on every corner. Statistically, rare events are not seen by most people. The fact that most people did not experience it, does not prove it improbable in the least. You might enjoy a great book by Nobel Prize Economist Daniel Kahneman titled Fast Thinking, Slow Thinking. It's about the high frequency which we (all, myself included) make poor statistical inferences.

As for who I am, I'll PM you some information.

Best Michael


Michael, my response re slow sailboat was in reference to your previous post.

"It was not uncommon, at the time, for smugglers to capture a yacht in the Bahamas, kill the crew, and then use the boat for a drug run... typically, run the boat onto land/beach somewhere secluded in FLA for the off take."


The idea of motherships and fast boats was developed in the 70's and was well refined by the 80's. I know as I did work on a few of them.

I dont know why you felt it necessary to send me your resume but it seems impressive. A second generation NY banker and a friend of J Esposito, who could fail to be impressed by that. So as requested I will withdraw my "troll" comment but that doesn't change the fact that IMHO you are a bit of a dick.

Best Tony.

#80 Paps

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 09:18 AM

From a 1986 Article in the LA Times.

"When you steal a boat on the open seas, you often steal its human cargo--the pilot, the passengers, the crew," a Coast Guard spokesman explained. "The first thing you want to do is get rid of witnesses. Dead men, as Captain John Silver used to say, tell no tales."Sometimes crews survive, of course, to tell hair-raisers. Mates aboard the Kamalii, a 75-foot motor sailboat hijacked at gunpoint from a Hawaii port, were set adrift in the shark-infested Pacific on a tiny raft without food and water. Eventually, they were spotted by a passing freighter.

Held at Knifepoint

The 37-foot cruiser Whip Ray was attacked off Andros Islands, Bahamas, by a handful of "assailing criminals." The ship's owner was held at knifepoint. Before his wife could be raped, he managed to grab a gun and kill his attackers. He narrowly avoided prosecution by Bahamian authorities for murder.


http://articles.lati...74_1_easy-money

To be fair, I found another article from 1992 which states that the belief in drug smuggling pirate was overblown by media hype. See excerpt below.

A persistent rumor is that drug smugglers will board recreational boats at sea, murder the crew and take the vessel for smuggling," a statement by the Coast Guard's Miami office says. "There are no known cases of this occurring. It would not make sense for smugglers to take a boat which would then become the subject of a Coast Guard search."

http://articles.lati..._robert-axelrod

Whether the persistent news stories were exaggerated or not, I can not say for sure. But we certainly believed that the boat following us was a threat and we took a precautionary measure. They might have been innocent. I cant say for sure but there was zero reason for them to be trailing us at 18kts in 25 foot twin O/B in deep water and more than 25 miles from the nearest marina or port. To clarify, deep water in the Bahamas usually means less than 100 feet. What I mean to say is that we were not restricted by a channel where their following our path would have made sense.

FWIW, Tom Clancy obviously had been reading the same news stories as me given the opening scene in Clear and Present Danger.

Lastly, I point you to this statement on the US State Department Web site.

Some organized crime activity is believed to occur in The Bahamas, primarily related to the illegal importation and smuggling of illicit drugs or human trafficking. The Bahamas, due to its numerous uninhabited islands and cays, has historically been favored by smugglers and pirates. Most visitors to The Bahamas would not have noticeable interaction with organized crime elements; however, persons who operate their own water craft or air craft should be alert to the possibility of encountering similar vessels operated by smugglers engaged in illicit activities on the open seas or air space in or near The Bahamas.


Well if it was in a Tom Clancy book and the US State Dept said it, it must be true, I defer to your research. Have you ever met a drug dealer?

Hint, I have.

#81 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 01:40 PM

IMHO violence was FAR more likely as a result of being a witness in the wrong place at the wrong time than as a victim of boat theft. I was going to flight school at the time and there were always "side jobs" on offer. It was considered possible that the the payment received would be final if you know what I mean :o

#82 kdh

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 03:44 PM

In fact, the most likely statistical probability (the Bayesian Prior) ...

Since when is this true? What does this even mean? A Bayesian prior is a distribution, not a probability, and what does "most likely statistical probability" mean? A probable probability? One can have a distribution on a probability, but what does that have to do with a Bayes prior?

#83 Joli

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 03:56 PM

Uh oh, statistics.....

#84 SemiSalt

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 04:49 PM

A Bayesian prior is a distribution, not a probability, and what does "most likely statistical probability" mean?


Leaving aside the quibbles on terminology, there is an interesting question here. Suppose that, a priori, you have one point with associated with some probability and everything else is simply 'other.' For example, Hercule Poirot assigns an 80% probability that Col. Mustard was the killer, but if it wasn't Mustard, he has no idea who it was. Then a wrench is discovered in the library. How does that affect the probability that Mustard is guilty? I don't see that Bayes Theorem is of much help in pinning the crime on Miss Peacock.

So, getting back to the original mention of Bayes, if the prior is 99.9% that "no one saw nuthing", and 0.1% that "someone saw sumpthin'", you really don't have anything to work with.

#85 kdh

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 11:52 PM

Indeed, if the outcome is binary, like something happened or not, then a probability defines the distribution, because if p is the probability of it happening then 1 - p is the probability that it didn't.

I'm with you Semi that if the probability that something happened is small then it's hard to estimate anything. In the case here, the probability that a boat following you contains pirates is hard to estimate because the probability of pirates anywhere is small. Or something like that.

I'm still curious about what the mathematical argument involving a Bayes prior would be.

#86 Paps

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Posted 21 July 2012 - 02:44 AM

Well I dont know if it helps but I have seen a black swan??

#87 sailglobal

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Posted 21 July 2012 - 05:28 AM

Well I dont know if it helps but I have seen a black swan??


But Paps, the real question is "have you ever eaten black swan?" Chas has.

#88 Paps

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Posted 21 July 2012 - 06:32 AM


Well I dont know if it helps but I have seen a black swan??


But Paps, the real question is "have you ever eaten black swan?" Chas has.


Thats best left to Chas.

#89 puddin

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 09:42 PM

Puddin, I'm not ready to hire a consultant or broker b/c this voyage is at lead 2 if not 3 years in the future. I'm simply trying to better understand the design, safety and performance considerations for a larger sail boat.. If the conversation is uninteresting or offensive then I suggest you move along. I've been on SA for 7 years and have had an article published by Scott on the Home Page of SA. We happen to have enjoyed huge real estate appreciation in NYC over 20 years and when the kids are in college/boarding school, we can sell property and buy a nice boat. We've been lucky.



Apologies if you thought I was trying to be extremely contrarian. I wasn't. Apologies for my flippant opening. I think what I originally said about finding a broker, or as others suggested hiring a pro skipper/boat manager, Bob, etc... are right on the mark for what you're looking for. IMHO and probably not so valuable opinion is to really figure out the type of sailing and sailing 'style' that will suit you and your family. The lead time of 2-3 years for starting out puts a boat purchase at least 12months prior to your schedule as there will inevitably be much to do. Listen to Jose, Bob, and the others. This is where people usually insert what they'd want to sail given the budget and circumstance, but they'd just be opinions. Valuable? Maybe, maybe not. One man might want a glass house, the other a castle. I also hadn't read the entire thread and missed the story about your wife. A truly senseless act that changed the trajectory of your lives. I sincerely hope the two of you and your family are able to pursue your dream that you've expressed here.

#90 Bob Perry

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 09:59 PM

I'm not retractin' nuttin'.

#91 Student_Driver

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Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:32 PM

In all honesty.. we did not know for sure that they were pirates. Perhaps the best assumption is that they were not. Who knows. We were primed to see pirates, and we assumed that this small boat, following us in a remote location seemed suspicious. Not dissimilar to someone following you on a dark, desolate street and following several turns you make. Most people would consider this suspicious and may take evasive action. We were hearing in the media, via the boating community and the news that pirates were stealing boats. So we made an assumption. Were we wrong? Who knows.


Regarding the B/Distribution. The prior is that in a distribution of people/boats, the percentage who are pirates is a very small number. Let's call this "X%" Another prior is that the percentage of the general population who are pirates is greater than X% in certain geographic regions. Off Sudan, Indian Ocean and - we believed - in the remote out islands of the Bahamas. So, the point that I was trying to make, is similar to the thesis of Nassim Taleb's recent book, The Black Swan. No matter how many white swans one observse, there is no proof that black swans don't exist. What is more probable, or defensible, is that Black Swans (if they exist) are rare. Recognizing that Pirates are 'rare', the fact that many of us have never come across one is not surprising or conclusive in dismissing the likelihood that others have seen pirates.

To my knowledge, I have not met a smuggler. I did meet someone who's job it was to count the money. That's his story. He did serve time as a guest of the Federal Govt. So I guess it might be true. Not sure why that helps determine what's what.

Regarding the proposition that boat theft and kidnapping does not make sense when one can use a fast boat and mother ship method, there are a few things worth considering. Whilst, there can be no doubt that the mother ship and fast boat strategy works, often, it has some limitations. Firstly, local and federal agents spent a great deal of time and effort tracking and tracking down boats which fit the profile. Tax returns, marina spot visits, background checks and surveillance were/are employed. If you show up and buy a 500HP Inboard Deep Vee on Thunderbolt Alley and you've never filed a 1040, guess what, someone will notice. In some cases, the dealerships report to agencies transactions of a certain profile. So, not only does the smuggler need to buy a quiver of expensive fast boats, he/she needs to have a plausible explanation for the income and the pattern of use for the boats.

You might ask how I know about the profiling of certain boats and their owners. Firstly, I have a cousin who was (and is) a boat dealer who sold Fountains, Donzi's and Cigarettes at various times. Through him and through others, I had the opportunity while living in Miami to meet boat dealers, manufactures and Marina owners/managers. Smuggling was a common topic of conversation in the "Miami Vice" era and I'd often hear about calls or visits by the DEA, Coast Guard or other enforcement agencies to Marinas, dealerships and private docks to profile owners, boats and their usage profiles. Also they'd pay attention to the performance, navigation and equipment profile of the boats. I also met and socialized from time to time with enforcement agents and coast guardsmen. Long story short, there were many people saying the same thing. If you have a boat that can go over 65mph and it has a cuddy cabin, expect that someone has (or is) checking you out. If you leave at night, the Marina operator might drop a dime on you. etc.

A big slow privately held motor yacht is a great cover. It is not on the profile and presumably the owner whose boat was stolen is a known member of the community and above suspicion. In those days, mobile ("Radio") telephones were very rare. If family/friends were to leave for a one or two week cruise to the Bahamas, it's not likely that anyone would notice a theft/kidnapping for many days. Plenty of time to make the 6 to 8 hour crossing into US waters and ditch the boat before any alert is made to the enforcement agencies. So here's the choice. Launder lots of money to buy a quiver of boats which will attract attention both leaving and entering US waters. Or, find a big boat on a cruise in a remote location where no one will observe the theft. By holding (or eliminating) the owner and guests, there is little chance that the boat will be known to be missing for days. During that time, you can enter US waters with very little suspicion and chance of interdiction. This method was used. I refer you to the LA Times article I cited earlier. What is also true, is that the hype about this may well have exceeded the reality and we were 'primed' to see risk and danger where there was none. We'll never know.

Whatever, it does not mater.

I am deeply sorry that I started this thread. If I have given offence, I have not meant to.

#92 Bob Perry

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Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:56 PM

SD:
This is SA/CA and it takes a lot more than your posts to offend us. I don't think any of your posts were offensive. I didn't even try to follow the drug smuggling theme. Still not sure what that was about. Stay and communicate with us. Don't take your football home.

#93 Ishmael

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Posted 24 July 2012 - 10:02 PM

I regret that there was so much undeserved shit-slinging, but that is the nature of this beast. As Bob says, stay and contribute. "Newbs" all have to suffer the rite of passage, unwarranted though it may be.

#94 kdh

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Posted 25 July 2012 - 02:18 AM

With the Bayesian shit, I was just giving you a "can't bullshit a bullshitter" line. That Taleb hack probability crap pisses me off. Finance deserves better.

If an event has low probability it's not likely to be seen in a sample. A whole book about that?

In investing bad shit happens when everyone wants their money back. Continuing to assume the same distributions used when things are swimming along nicely and ascribing "6 sigma events" and "seeing black swans" is silly.

Sorry, rant over. Hope you stick around.

#95 Student_Driver

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Posted 25 July 2012 - 03:37 AM

With the Bayesian shit, I was just giving you a "can't bullshit a bullshitter" line. That Taleb hack probability crap pisses me off. Finance deserves better.

If an event has low probability it's not likely to be seen in a sample. A whole book about that?

In investing bad shit happens when everyone wants their money back. Continuing to assume the same distributions used when things are swimming along nicely and ascribing "6 sigma events" and "seeing black swans" is silly.

Sorry, rant over. Hope you stick around.


KDH,

I agree that Taleb's book is essentially trivial. With respect to risk management in finance, I spent several years hitting my head against the wall trying to get FOF managers to adopt more intelligent risk management metrics and measures using multi-regime heuristic models employing PCA and with demonstrable improvements in ETL measures as well as regime dependent metrics. Long story short, it's hard to teach old dogs new tricks. I've been in the epicenter of six sigma events too many times in my career! I should be a million years old. VAR metrics are similar to driving forward by looking in the rear view mirror.

#96 Paps

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Posted 25 July 2012 - 09:24 AM

In all honesty.. we did not know for sure that they were pirates. Perhaps the best assumption is that they were not. Who knows. We were primed to see pirates, and we assumed that this small boat, following us in a remote location seemed suspicious. Not dissimilar to someone following you on a dark, desolate street and following several turns you make. Most people would consider this suspicious and may take evasive action. We were hearing in the media, via the boating community and the news that pirates were stealing boats. So we made an assumption. Were we wrong? Who knows.


Regarding the B/Distribution. The prior is that in a distribution of people/boats, the percentage who are pirates is a very small number. Let's call this "X%" Another prior is that the percentage of the general population who are pirates is greater than X% in certain geographic regions. Off Sudan, Indian Ocean and - we believed - in the remote out islands of the Bahamas. So, the point that I was trying to make, is similar to the thesis of Nassim Taleb's recent book, The Black Swan. No matter how many white swans one observse, there is no proof that black swans don't exist. What is more probable, or defensible, is that Black Swans (if they exist) are rare. Recognizing that Pirates are 'rare', the fact that many of us have never come across one is not surprising or conclusive in dismissing the likelihood that others have seen pirates.

To my knowledge, I have not met a smuggler. I did meet someone who's job it was to count the money. That's his story. He did serve time as a guest of the Federal Govt. So I guess it might be true. Not sure why that helps determine what's what.

Regarding the proposition that boat theft and kidnapping does not make sense when one can use a fast boat and mother ship method, there are a few things worth considering. Whilst, there can be no doubt that the mother ship and fast boat strategy works, often, it has some limitations. Firstly, local and federal agents spent a great deal of time and effort tracking and tracking down boats which fit the profile. Tax returns, marina spot visits, background checks and surveillance were/are employed. If you show up and buy a 500HP Inboard Deep Vee on Thunderbolt Alley and you've never filed a 1040, guess what, someone will notice. In some cases, the dealerships report to agencies transactions of a certain profile. So, not only does the smuggler need to buy a quiver of expensive fast boats, he/she needs to have a plausible explanation for the income and the pattern of use for the boats.

You might ask how I know about the profiling of certain boats and their owners. Firstly, I have a cousin who was (and is) a boat dealer who sold Fountains, Donzi's and Cigarettes at various times. Through him and through others, I had the opportunity while living in Miami to meet boat dealers, manufactures and Marina owners/managers. Smuggling was a common topic of conversation in the "Miami Vice" era and I'd often hear about calls or visits by the DEA, Coast Guard or other enforcement agencies to Marinas, dealerships and private docks to profile owners, boats and their usage profiles. Also they'd pay attention to the performance, navigation and equipment profile of the boats. I also met and socialized from time to time with enforcement agents and coast guardsmen. Long story short, there were many people saying the same thing. If you have a boat that can go over 65mph and it has a cuddy cabin, expect that someone has (or is) checking you out. If you leave at night, the Marina operator might drop a dime on you. etc.

A big slow privately held motor yacht is a great cover. It is not on the profile and presumably the owner whose boat was stolen is a known member of the community and above suspicion. In those days, mobile ("Radio") telephones were very rare. If family/friends were to leave for a one or two week cruise to the Bahamas, it's not likely that anyone would notice a theft/kidnapping for many days. Plenty of time to make the 6 to 8 hour crossing into US waters and ditch the boat before any alert is made to the enforcement agencies. So here's the choice. Launder lots of money to buy a quiver of boats which will attract attention both leaving and entering US waters. Or, find a big boat on a cruise in a remote location where no one will observe the theft. By holding (or eliminating) the owner and guests, there is little chance that the boat will be known to be missing for days. During that time, you can enter US waters with very little suspicion and chance of interdiction. This method was used. I refer you to the LA Times article I cited earlier. What is also true, is that the hype about this may well have exceeded the reality and we were 'primed' to see risk and danger where there was none. We'll never know.

Whatever, it does not mater.

I am deeply sorry that I started this thread. If I have given offence, I have not meant to.


SD, as has been said offense is way too strong a word, we have thick skins around here, its sort of a requirement. The site is named Sailing Anarchy and believe me this section (CA) is a kindergarten compared to the rest of it, you need to be able to hold your own.

Stick to the facts you know and treat everyone as equals and you will get along fine. When you stray into areas that are not really your territory and others have been there you will get chopped down as in the pirate scenario.

This paragraph worries me and makes me wonder why you would want to go cruising at all..............

"I assume that in certain areas, you'll need a watch on deck? In others, perhaps setting a radar perimeter alarm at 1/8 mile around the boat? Motion and/or infrared sensors on deck and possibly... on demand.. electrified door latches and life lines... other plans for security, I'll leave to the captain and advice from others more experienced.. Bottom line is that I'll most likely not be onboard any where near the south asian and east african pirate zones."

Hell why stop there, how about a Howitzer?

This is not cruising, its dragging the problems of modern society into the undeveloped world. And again over responding to perceived threats. I can assure you that you would be safer in most cruising destinations than at home. For every Peter Blake there are 15 John Lennons, sometimes shit happens. Do you leave your home/apartment in NY with a security detail? The most dangerous person I met in the Philippines, one of the danger spots' was an American Vet who tried to shoot his Vietnamese wife, twice on board their Formosa moored not far away.

Perhaps you should consider carefully your motives for the trip. Just maybe rather than spending X + Z on a mega yacht to travel the worlds oceans with a private army doing good deeds along the way the money would be better spent building 100 schools and Med clinics and really making a difference.

I wont apologise for possibly offending you, I tend to speak my mind, its up to you or anyone else to decide whether to listen, doesn't matter to me at all, I say what I believe but fully accept that others might disagree.

I will leave you in the hands of Chopper, one of our unofficial mentors. It is of course a double parody.

On the one hand Ronnie Johns the comedian is parodying Mark "Chopper" Reid a notorious anti hero who was a hardened crim and killer but kept his crimes to "business" and wrote poetry on the side. A bit like Ned Kelly another of our anti heroes, kinda like Bonny and Clyde without the nasty streak.

On the other hand there is also Choppers parody of the softness of modern society, the misplaced importance on trivial things, like dog psychologists. Not much room for them in Island nations worried about sea levels, sewerage or food security.

Hang around if you wish, the answers to your questions are probably here some where but HTFU mate and I mean that in an inclusive way.

Chopper

#97 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 25 July 2012 - 11:07 AM

I have no idea if the people I shot a flare over were pirates either, but they did run off pretty quick after that :lol:

Anyway, don't run off. No one is offended - we just get trolled enough to be sensitive to it. If someone is offended, tell them to fuck off and you'll fit right in.


In all honesty.. we did not know for sure that they were pirates. Perhaps the best assumption is that they were not. Who knows. We were primed to see pirates, and we assumed that this small boat, following us in a remote location seemed suspicious. Not dissimilar to someone following you on a dark, desolate street and following several turns you make. Most people would consider this suspicious and may take evasive action. We were hearing in the media, via the boating community and the news that pirates were stealing boats. So we made an assumption. Were we wrong? Who knows.


Regarding the B/Distribution. The prior is that in a distribution of people/boats, the percentage who are pirates is a very small number. Let's call this "X%" Another prior is that the percentage of the general population who are pirates is greater than X% in certain geographic regions. Off Sudan, Indian Ocean and - we believed - in the remote out islands of the Bahamas. So, the point that I was trying to make, is similar to the thesis of Nassim Taleb's recent book, The Black Swan. No matter how many white swans one observse, there is no proof that black swans don't exist. What is more probable, or defensible, is that Black Swans (if they exist) are rare. Recognizing that Pirates are 'rare', the fact that many of us have never come across one is not surprising or conclusive in dismissing the likelihood that others have seen pirates.

To my knowledge, I have not met a smuggler. I did meet someone who's job it was to count the money. That's his story. He did serve time as a guest of the Federal Govt. So I guess it might be true. Not sure why that helps determine what's what.

Regarding the proposition that boat theft and kidnapping does not make sense when one can use a fast boat and mother ship method, there are a few things worth considering. Whilst, there can be no doubt that the mother ship and fast boat strategy works, often, it has some limitations. Firstly, local and federal agents spent a great deal of time and effort tracking and tracking down boats which fit the profile. Tax returns, marina spot visits, background checks and surveillance were/are employed. If you show up and buy a 500HP Inboard Deep Vee on Thunderbolt Alley and you've never filed a 1040, guess what, someone will notice. In some cases, the dealerships report to agencies transactions of a certain profile. So, not only does the smuggler need to buy a quiver of expensive fast boats, he/she needs to have a plausible explanation for the income and the pattern of use for the boats.

You might ask how I know about the profiling of certain boats and their owners. Firstly, I have a cousin who was (and is) a boat dealer who sold Fountains, Donzi's and Cigarettes at various times. Through him and through others, I had the opportunity while living in Miami to meet boat dealers, manufactures and Marina owners/managers. Smuggling was a common topic of conversation in the "Miami Vice" era and I'd often hear about calls or visits by the DEA, Coast Guard or other enforcement agencies to Marinas, dealerships and private docks to profile owners, boats and their usage profiles. Also they'd pay attention to the performance, navigation and equipment profile of the boats. I also met and socialized from time to time with enforcement agents and coast guardsmen. Long story short, there were many people saying the same thing. If you have a boat that can go over 65mph and it has a cuddy cabin, expect that someone has (or is) checking you out. If you leave at night, the Marina operator might drop a dime on you. etc.

A big slow privately held motor yacht is a great cover. It is not on the profile and presumably the owner whose boat was stolen is a known member of the community and above suspicion. In those days, mobile ("Radio") telephones were very rare. If family/friends were to leave for a one or two week cruise to the Bahamas, it's not likely that anyone would notice a theft/kidnapping for many days. Plenty of time to make the 6 to 8 hour crossing into US waters and ditch the boat before any alert is made to the enforcement agencies. So here's the choice. Launder lots of money to buy a quiver of boats which will attract attention both leaving and entering US waters. Or, find a big boat on a cruise in a remote location where no one will observe the theft. By holding (or eliminating) the owner and guests, there is little chance that the boat will be known to be missing for days. During that time, you can enter US waters with very little suspicion and chance of interdiction. This method was used. I refer you to the LA Times article I cited earlier. What is also true, is that the hype about this may well have exceeded the reality and we were 'primed' to see risk and danger where there was none. We'll never know.

Whatever, it does not mater.

I am deeply sorry that I started this thread. If I have given offence, I have not meant to.



#98 SemiSalt

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Posted 25 July 2012 - 01:41 PM

With respect to risk management in finance, I spent several years hitting my head against the wall trying to get FOF managers to adopt more intelligent risk management metrics and measures using multi-regime heuristic models employing PCA and with demonstrable improvements in ETL measures as well as regime dependent metrics.


Nobody likes a showoff. There are lots of us who are not impressed by a long string of buzzwords. It's rare thing when a higher level of abstraction leads to a better model of the real world. Data is more important than theory.

You sound to me like the kind of guy who isn't happy unless he is the most important guy in the room. Here in CA, you're not. If you want to raise your reputation, then supply some info that is helpful to someone else. Value added, as they say.

#99 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 25 July 2012 - 02:33 PM

I thought that was a Dilbert-esque joke, not actually a serious statement :rolleyes:




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