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weather going south - for BJ and any others


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#1 Estar

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 12:43 PM

Complicated weather situation coming up, right in the normal departure window.

The models don't yet know where Sandy will go. Some have it going to Bermuda and others have a direct hit on Long Island. I personally lean toward the Bermuda forecast, in which case it will drive 30kt winds along the coast during the end of Oct but clear out by 11/1. However, we need to keep a close eye on it, in case the long island forecast proves more right. Here is the latest GFS picture (which is one of the models suggesting the Bermuda route) for 10/30.

Attached File  sandy.jpg   145.22K   24 downloads

Here is the SAndy spaghetti chart, showing the track forecast by the major models:
Attached File  sandys.jpg   102.63K   23 downloads

Most of the models then have another low coming off the mainland after Sandy. This is a long time away with minimal forecast accuracy, but could produce uncomfortable winds during early November. Here is the GFS for 11/1:

Attached File  postsandy.jpg   111.41K   16 downloads

It all reminds me a bit of last year, with the halloween storm and then TS sean. There is a greater range of outcomes than normal, which probably means there will be some good windows to depart and some horrible ones and it will be worth paying close attention. Last year, a lot of people paid too much attention to the Halloween storm and not enough to what came after it (which turned into Sean).

#2 B.J. Porter

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 12:58 PM

Yeah, we're leaving Oxford today and planning to tuck in somewhere close to Hampton as the picture develops more.

#3 Ajax

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 01:02 PM

Yeah, we're leaving Oxford today and planning to tuck in somewhere close to Hampton as the picture develops more.


Fair winds, brother. It was really great meeting you and your family, and I'm glad you came through the Chesapeake. Even if the genset doesn't get sleeved today, you can always try again down in VA.

#4 Mung Breath

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 01:05 PM

I'm just glad that at least half of the leaves are off the trees here in CT. Still get the shakes recalling the disaster of last holloween!

#5 Innocent Bystander

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 01:20 PM

Yeah, we're leaving Oxford today and planning to tuck in somewhere close to Hampton as the picture develops more.


Have you pulled the plug on the repair? Planning on leaving on the noon high tide?

Check your PM

#6 B.J. Porter

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 01:34 PM


Yeah, we're leaving Oxford today and planning to tuck in somewhere close to Hampton as the picture develops more.


Have you pulled the plug on the repair? Planning on leaving on the noon high tide?

Check your PM


That is the plan, yes. There's a guy in my engine room as I type this putting it back together.

#7 Gumby

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 04:03 PM

Was planning to leave Halifax for somewhere warmer on Saturday. Now planning to wait until early in the week.

#8 blackjenner

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 05:47 PM

Yeah, we're leaving Oxford today and planning to tuck in somewhere close to Hampton as the picture develops more.


Fair winds, BJ.

#9 Mr. Fixit's brother,, Mr. Fixit

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 06:15 PM

It now is looking possible that Sandy will merge with the other low and produce some snow in southern NJ and upper Chese.

Posted Image

#10 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 06:25 PM

latest:

Attached Files



#11 B.J. Porter

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 06:35 PM

It now is looking possible that Sandy will merge with the other low and produce some snow in southern NJ and upper Chese.



I no longer own any snow related clothing, so long as it stays away from the Southern Chesapeake with that crap we're OK.

#12 Mr. Fixit's brother,, Mr. Fixit

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 07:03 PM


It now is looking possible that Sandy will merge with the other low and produce some snow in southern NJ and upper Chese.



I no longer own any snow related clothing, so long as it stays away from the Southern Chesapeake with that crap we're OK.


I have a friend who is finishing up his project, plans to head up to Newfie then Iceland and Spitzbergen. Then dropping over to Scandinavia and the Baltic. Hmmmm, very pretty I'm sure.

#13 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 07:06 PM

Considering the water temps are still in the 60s*, any amount of snow sticking to anything is not likely.

*good thing, gotta clean my prop tonight


It now is looking possible that Sandy will merge with the other low and produce some snow in southern NJ and upper Chese.



I no longer own any snow related clothing, so long as it stays away from the Southern Chesapeake with that crap we're OK.



#14 Estar

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 08:34 PM

Latest GFS run:

10/29 Closer CPA to the Bay, but still offshore:

Attached File  sandy1.jpg   164.79K   13 downloads

10/31 Recurving to hit the coast up in maine/canada:

Attached File  sandy2.jpg   192.93K   16 downloads

That keeps it windy along the coast thru 11/2

Attached File  sandy3.jpg   131.9K   10 downloads

11/5 then a smaller low forecast to come off the coast - but this is way out in terms of forecast accuracy and not to be worried about yet.

Attached File  sandy4.jpg   72.65K   4 downloads

#15 Estar

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 09:21 PM

SANDY Spaghetti Models - still a few showing it going out to sea, but many of the models now showing east coast hits at various locations north of the Ches Bay (the most forecast southern track going right up the bay).

Attached File  sandy.jpg   84.96K   13 downloads

#16 Anomaly2

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 10:05 PM

Hmmmm, just boarded a flight to Milan, lets check in and see whats new on CA.... a hurricane? A HURRICANE? "roh-roh" as ScoobyDoo would say... just left two boats tucked in on their moorings... Put me down for hoping (praying?) it. tracks out to sea. I'll check back in here in about 8 hours. Sheesh.

#17 4knotSB

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 10:46 PM

It now is looking possible that Sandy will merge with the other low and produce some snow in southern NJ and upper Chese.

Posted Image

Hush yo mouf Willis.

#18 Ajax

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 12:54 AM

SANDY Spaghetti Models - still a few showing it going out to sea, but many of the models now showing east coast hits at various locations north of the Ches Bay (the most forecast southern track going right up the bay).

Attached File  sandy.jpg   84.96K   13 downloads


G%d f@#$# D@#$!

#19 Estar

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 02:01 AM

Latest spaghetti chart - reaching agreement of probable coastal hit somewhere, but no agreement of where yet:

Attached File  at201218_ensmodel.gif   42.26K   22 downloads

10/29 CPA to Ches Bay:

Attached File  sandy1.jpg   127.78K   16 downloads

Remains windy until 11/4, when high now forecast to fill in:

Attached File  sandy2.jpg   90.81K   9 downloads

#20 Estar

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 12:25 PM

For the next 72 hours there is now excellent agreement between the models: Northward for the next 24 hrs and then slow down and turn N/NW during 24-36hrs, and then weaken and accelerate a bit to the NE.

After that there is still significant model disagreement. One set of major models takes the center NW over the Delmarva Peninsula (and this includes the ECMWF model which has been both historically reliable and consistent the past 2 days), while the GFS keeps Sandy moving NE away from the US and Other models take it ashore in between.

Spaghetti chart:
Attached File  spaghetti.jpg   64.84K   18 downloads

10/29 Delmarva Peninsula hit picture:
Attached File  sandy29S.jpg   137.47K   28 downloads

10/29 Northern hit picture:

Attached File  sandy29n.jpg   167.13K   22 downloads

#21 Anomaly2

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 12:28 PM

Evans,

Thanks for these updates. I'm in Turin now but tuning in here when I can (as well as monitoring a few other weather sites).

#22 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 01:43 PM

Crap :(
I am supposed to move to my slip from my summer mooring today.
Might be happier on the mooring if we actually get a hurricane.

#23 Innocent Bystander

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 02:01 PM

I have a friend out of town with 2 boats at his dock, and a yard full of water toys I need to look after. I have 2 boats of my own in the water and the cruiser on the hard getting the bottom relaminated. Could be a busy weekend.

#24 Ajax

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 02:05 PM

Crap :(
I am supposed to move to my slip from my summer mooring today.
Might be happier on the mooring if we actually get a hurricane.


Wanna come over to my hurricane hole?

#25 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 02:10 PM

Thanks! CA is great :D
My mooring is fine, I just am annoyed at the timing.

#26 Slim

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 02:44 PM

Wanna come over to my hurricane hole?


GROSS!

#27 Ajax

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 02:57 PM



Wanna come over to my hurricane hole?


GROSS!


Shaddup, you! :angry: ;)

#28 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 02:59 PM

NTTIAWWT :P

Seriously - hurricane prep on the mooring is easy: Jib off, dodger off.
In the slip it is more of a PITA and the boat doesn't sit into the wind.

#29 MoeAlfa

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 03:15 PM

I knew if we got the bottom cleaned, the weekend would turn to shit.

Evans, where are you these days? I promise not to bother you, but might gawk at the boat from a distance.

#30 Ajax

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 03:49 PM

I knew if we got the bottom cleaned, the weekend would turn to shit.

Evans, where are you these days? I promise not to bother you, but might gawk at the boat from a distance.


Indeed, his boat is really amazing. I call it the "war cruiser".

#31 Joli

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 07:44 PM

Sunds like it's going to be ugly, a surface low hooking up with an upper level trough is the stuff they make movies about. Wishing all the East Coast sailors good luck.

#32 Estar

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 09:10 PM

Evans, where are you these days? I promise not to bother you, but might gawk at the boat from a distance.


I am hauled out at Hartge's - going to have the boat sand blasted - perhaps the hurricane will do it for free :) I am happy to be 'bothered', beats the sanding and painting I have been doing.

The models are now coming closer together on Sandy's hit point - somewhere between Delaware and cape cod.

Attached File  spaghetti.jpg   82.64K   12 downloads

The storm will probably be big enough that in any case, it will probably bring 50kt E to NE winds across the lower bay, and 30kts N to NE across the upper bay on 10/29-10/31

At 'northern hit model' (GFS) on 10/31:

Attached File  sandygfs.jpg   144.26K   19 downloads

And a 'southern hit model' (nogaps) on 10/29:

Attached File  sandynogaps.jpg   93.47K   16 downloads

Possible departure window sometime after 11/2. It will probably be windy thru then.

#33 Estar

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 10:01 PM

sorry, a bit dyslexic in my above, as shown by the wind arrows, the winds will be W/NW/N NOT E/NE/N

#34 Ajax

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 10:22 PM

Thanks for the update. I'm following this all very closely. I'm going to enlist you as my weather-guesser when I cruise to Maine. :)

#35 Estar

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 11:51 PM

Don't know if I believe it, but here is one forecast for snow on 10/31 (the red areas):

Attached File  snow.jpg   232.42K   28 downloads

#36 Slim

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 01:05 AM

It's Hurriween! Anything can happen!

#37 Estar

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 11:58 AM

No major change overnight.

Ht somewhere between Delaware and long island. The models that have been more consistent have leaned toward the southern side of this range.

Big enough storm that it will be windy over a wide area no matter where the precise hit is.

The snow forecast has been backed off a bit, not reaching the Ches Bay now.

Still looks like things clear up after 2/11 and possible departure south. The gulf stream may be a bit bumpy with the left over sea state.

Attached File  sandy.jpg   159.61K   14 downloads

#38 Ajax

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 12:54 PM

I would feel better if this thing would skooch to the North, just a little bit more... :(

#39 Estar

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 01:22 PM

I would feel better if this thing would skooch to the North, just a little bit more... :(


What do you think will happen with the water in the Ches Bay - go way up or way down? With northerly winds at least at the start I would guess down - but I don't know the bay water flow very well, would the low pressure be more important than the wind? . . . full moon spring tides on the 29th.

The forecasts for Thomas point light are still pretty mild - perhaps up to 30kts - so you will probably be fine in your hidey hole with respect to the wind. Its usually been a very high flooding tide that has caused problems in the upper bay and not the wind.

#40 Innocent Bystander

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 01:46 PM

Evans,

Bay is very wind driven. North winds take water out but torrential rain in the watershed keeps it from going too far down. South winds creat a lot of surge with more in the N Bay.

Pressure effects can give us excursions of a foot or so up and down but it's generally all about the wind with the N/S orientation of the Bay.

#41 sailglobal

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 02:27 PM

Well, let's see, forecast around 80's this weekend for Newport Beach, think we might reach over to Moonstone, have a swim or two, maybe dive for a couple of crays for dinner, a nice Tassie reisling, near full moon, have a hike Sunday morning, couple of books to finish, another swim, mmmm, no freakin election bulldust,,,,,, run home Monday or Tuesday,,,,,, see what the forecast is for next weekend,,,,, life's tough these days,,,,

What's it like up your way BV? another cruzy weekend?

#42 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 07:02 PM

BJ - I hope all is well. You need to be finding a nice hidey hole and setting your best anchor about now. Plenty around Oxford if you're still there.

#43 B.J. Porter

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 07:30 PM

We're en route to Deltaville, planning to drop the hook a ways up the river under some bluffs on the north & west sides.



(null)

#44 Slim

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 08:58 PM

Hope everyone stays high and dry. Where there's a will, there's a way -

Posted Image

#45 Innocent Bystander

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 09:01 PM

We're en route to Deltaville, planning to drop the hook a ways up the river under some bluffs on the north & west sides.



(null)


You guys be safe and stay in touch.

#46 Bob Perry

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 10:24 PM

Be safe you guys.
I guess I should quit bitching about our rain and 6 knot gusts.

#47 Estar

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 11:27 PM

We're en route to Deltaville, planning to drop the hook a ways up the river under some bluffs on the north & west sides.


Sounds like a good spot. And we know you have a good anchor.

Current forecast (still uncertain to a degree) for deltaville area is for: winds building Sunday, winds to peak Monday 3am, at N 35kts sustained with gusts to 45kts. Continuing thru about 5pm and then declining and shifting to NW. Rain (probably not snow). Clearing up perhaps Wednesday.

The models are still not sure if it will hit the Bay or long Island. But its a big enough storm that it will (probably) be windy and wet from the N/NW for you in any case. I don't think we will know exactly where it will hit until just before it does, because the hard left turn is unusual and the models are going to continue to forecast it differently.

Attached File  at201218_model_intensity.gif   16.26K   3 downloads

#48 Jose Carumba

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Posted 27 October 2012 - 01:09 AM

All of you take care. Stuff can be replaced. You can't.

#49 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 27 October 2012 - 01:09 AM

Just FYI - TWICE NOW I have been in 60+ in a hurricane when the forecast was for 25-35 at most.
Also FYI - your enemy is the totally unprepared boat with full canvas and sails on that gets loose. Watch out for what is anchored/docked near you ;)

#50 B.J. Porter

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Posted 27 October 2012 - 02:25 AM

Just FYI - TWICE NOW I have been in 60+ in a hurricane when the forecast was for 25-35 at most.
Also FYI - your enemy is the totally unprepared boat with full canvas and sails on that gets loose. Watch out for what is anchored/docked near you ;)


So far there's not a soul anchored near us, but we're not were we plan to be tomorrow night.

#51 Estar

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Posted 27 October 2012 - 01:17 PM

Basic track unchanged overnight. Perhaps a bit more consensus on a landfall just north of the delaware bay.

Primary models forecast for deltaville is also pretty much the same . . . WInd building starting Saturday night and into Sunday (NE going to N), peak around 2am Monday (N 30kts gusting to 45kts), then declining thru Tuesday (NW to W).

However, with some of the more northerly possible tracks, there is a possibility of decent SW winds on the 30th (Tuesday), so I would hope to have an anchorage with primary protection from N/NW but also decent protection from W/SW.

10/30:
Attached File  sandy30.jpg   130.01K   8 downloads

Weather still forecast to clear off by 11/2

11/2:
Attached File  sandy2.jpg   93.19K   9 downloads

And, while this is too far a way to be accurate, the next (weak) system is forecast to come thru on 11/6. SO, potential departure window between 11/2 - 11/6, and 11/3 would be my initial thought - to let the sea state over teh gulf stream settle but also get me as far out to sea as possible before the next system. But that's all very tentative given we still don't know where Sandy will come to shore.

11/6:
Attached File  sandy6.jpg   69.77K   8 downloads

#52 Estar

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 11:50 AM

Models now in good agreement. With landfall above the deleware, and winds affecting from Long Island to the Ches Bay.

Attached File  at201218_model.gif   37.23K   18 downloads

Landfall 10/29:
Attached File  sandy29.jpg   187.64K   18 downloads

Peak winds in the Cheas Bay are forecast for Monday. For the North bay (galesville area) the peak winds are: "Mon..N winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts to 60 kt", and further South in the bay (deltaville area) the peak is for: Mon..NW winds 35 to 40 kt with gusts to around 50 kt.

For Block island the peak is forecast for Monday night: Mon night..E winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 65 kt, and for Southport. CT (halfway down long island): Mon night..E winds 40 to 50 kt with gusts up to 65 kt.

Then it takes a 'Great tour'.

First going west (very unusual) inland and starts to weaken. This will (on 10/30) swing the winds in the Ches around to the SW:

Attached File  sandy30.jpg   179.8K   13 downloads

Then (10/31) it goes North (to the great lakes):

Attached File  sandy31.jpg   107.24K   8 downloads

By 11/2 it starts coming back east along the lakes as a weak low - creating the start of very nice westerly passages winds.

Attached File  sandy2.jpg   94.17K   8 downloads

And a high pressure starts to fill in on 11/4:

Attached File  sandy4.jpg   105.57K   8 downloads

Attached Files



#53 SailAR

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 02:24 PM

I hope the storm surge estimates are overstated. 9-12 feet for Sandy Hook and Western LIS. That would literally float a lot of docks off their pilings around here. We still have a lot of boats in the water as we've just started hauling season around here.

#54 Ajax

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 02:27 PM

Bleh. Not a fan of the wind shift to the SW.

#55 Diarmuid

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 06:36 PM

Hold tight, everyone. We are thinkin' about ya.:)

#56 Estar

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 08:08 PM

I hope the storm surge estimates are overstated. 9-12 feet for Sandy Hook and Western LIS.


It's going be blowing hard from the easterly quadrant from tonight thru Tuesday. It's going to be a really major event there.

Attached File  njsand.gif   17.35K   30 downloads

Bleh. Not a fan of the wind shift to the SW.


Unfortunately thats the one further change in the forecast for the Ches Bay . . . there continues to be more and stronger (30-40kts) SW winds, starting 10/30 (Tuesday) at about 0300Z and right thru Tuesday night.

With the southerly winds, Bay now forecast to be 4' above 'normal' Tuesday night.

Attached File  mdann.gif   14.77K   25 downloads

#57 Ajax

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 08:30 PM

I knew it was smart to buy additional, extra-long dock lines. I just put them on prior to reading this.

This is where the phrase "No man is an island" merges with the phrase "Hey y'all, watch this!" <_<

#58 SailAR

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 10:33 PM


I hope the storm surge estimates are overstated. 9-12 feet for Sandy Hook and Western LIS.


It's going be blowing hard from the easterly quadrant from tonight thru Tuesday. It's going to be a really major event there.

Attached File  njsand.gif   17.35K   30 downloads


I know. It is just going to stack up down here. Irene flooded a number of the local areas down here. The water made it up just shy of the street across from my fathers house.. Another 3 feet gets is to his front lawn. Just spent 4 hours hauling stuff to higher ground. At least the club faces West..

#59 Anomaly2

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 11:03 PM

uck. A friend of mine just relayed a commissioned weather forecasting service prediction for Narragansett Bay.... possible 90 kt winds late Monday night...... Sheezus. I'm stuck overseas with 2 boats on moorings in Narragansett Bay..... Fingers crossed I guess.

#60 Anomaly2

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 11:32 PM

This is too unnerving. Last Tuesday before I left, I checked the weather and everything looked fine. I was down about missing some good fall sailing weather. Then, once I reached JFK, I checked CA and saw the post from Evans about the development of what we now affectionately call Sandy..... Commander weather service just forecast up to 90 kts in Narragansett Bay on Monday night. I've got two boats on moorings in the bay.... I can't do anything now. I'm in Turin (Turino) for the Salon del Gusto/Terra Madre conference. I've never been to this event but wasn't going to turn down an invitation to come on somebody else's nickel. So.... tonight I just said Fuckit and went to the "enoteca"---- sheezus!-- this thing is huge, a hall with over 1100 types of wine (that's just the wine hall, the food halls are much, much larger). I'm in the Piedmont region so decided to stick with the Barolos, Barberas, Niebiolos, and Dulcettas..... Hope my boats survive......

Attached Files



#61 Bob Perry

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 11:38 PM

Barolos work for me. I shuld be so lucky.

"Close my eyes for just one minute, what do you do? Who put ol' pig weed in the Mulligam stew."
" In the Mulligan"
"In the Mulligan."
"Taste the brotherhood of man."

I have no idea what this storm means other than what I read here and see on TV. Doesn't really convey what is happening.

#62 ice9a

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 11:44 PM

Commander weather service just forecast up to 90 kts in Narragansett Bay on Monday night. ....


The models I am looking at forecast gusts to 70kts around 2100UTC.

#63 Gatekeeper

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 12:01 AM

Hang on guys...we are pulling for you.

Remember, no matter how much you love your plastic, it's only plastic. They make lots of plastic everyday.

Stay safe

#64 Ishmael

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 12:51 AM

Maybe if they parked Rebecca in the bay they could get a pass. Hurricanes don't do wood, do they? Just plastic boats and trailer parks.

#65 Estar

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 01:36 AM

Just looking at offshore buoy data from the buoy's that have been around Sandy's path.

The green lines are the baro pressure - you can see when it bottoms that the center is passing that buoy.
The blue lines are the sustained winds, and the red lines the gusts.

Its windy, but honestly it does not look that scary - around 40 knts sustained with gusts into the 50's. Thats consistent with the lastest (5pm) NWS discussion: "no SFMR-adjusted surface winds of hurricane force were detected in any quadrant"

Attached File  plot_wind_pres (1).png   15.22K   15 downloads
Attached File  plot_wind_pres (2).png   15.37K   18 downloads
Attached File  plot_wind_pres.png   15.22K   17 downloads
Attached File  plot_wind_pres (3).png   25.28K   15 downloads

#66 Anomaly2

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 01:58 AM

"its only plastic"

Yeah, I know. That is true. But I live on this plastic so it seems like a bit more than that to me. We traveled up the east coast from the west coast of Florida when I first got her, so we have bonded quite a bit. Its not rational I know....

Evans, thanks for your posts. At least they provide some real info, if not comfort. I know the 90 kts mentioned in the Commander forecast/analysis is the highest out there but..... (see above).

The Barolos help, sort of. Back from a birthday party for one in a Dutch couple who are really fantastic people making a living from the most low-tech version of commercial fishing one can imagine. The party was held on the rooftop of a building known as the "Agnelli bldg" after the owner of Fiat...... All fun but Sandy isn't....

#67 Brodie

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 02:23 AM

Maybe if they parked Rebecca in the bay they could get a pass. Hurricanes don't do wood, do they? Just plastic boats and trailer parks.


Irene took out a wooden Hinckley moored near me in Narr Bay last year, and last time I checked, Rebecca was in Wickford Harbor.

Anom, when are you back? And where are your boats? Too late for me to do anything before the storm but I'd be happy to check on them for you, I'm in Jamestown.

My boat is out but is in a jam-packed yard at basically zero elevation. I have a 24' powerboat under my bow and a 38' Aerodyne that draws 8 feet with the stick still up right next to me. Actually hanging over the deck. If anything moves, the whole row will fall. I'm not terribly thrilled.
Posted Image
Posted Image
Posted Image

#68 Anomaly2

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 02:43 AM

Brodie,

Thanks for the offer. Where are you? I can't quite make it out from those photos--- is that the yard at Dutch Harbor? (they really know how to pack them in don't they?) I have one boat in Allen Harbor (in Quonset Point) and one in Wickford Cove. Sounds terrible to say (a Sophie's Choice sort of thing (?)), but I guess I'm most worried about the boat in Allen Harbor. My daughter and a good friend who drives a 12 meter out of Newport went out to the Allen Harbor boat yesterday when it was still calm and they tried to lash things down but it really was a lot to ask of them to do more than that. We'll just have to see now what happens. I guess the only bright (?) spot is that I was planning on moving both boats to the docks in Wickford where they will spend the winter (as will I) on Sunday before I left but it turned out the "summer people" hadn't left the respective slips. I'd be even more worried/freaked out if the boats were at slips during this.... Oh, and yes, while checking the Wickford scene, I noticed that Rebecca was indeed still at the dock at Wickford Shipyard. My goodness, what a beauty she is up close and in person. I almost felt bad for all the sophmoric humor displayed on this thread at her expense. Almost.

#69 Brodie

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 02:55 AM

I'm at Clark's, on the east side, just north of JBY - you can just see the Newport Bridge in the distance in the 3rd pic. At least my boat is lined up for any NE winds. There is just enough room for the crane truck to drive through the yard, barely.

If you keep a boat in Wickford I've probably kayaked past you a million times - I worked at the Kayak Centre for the past 3 summers. used to launch a powerboat for grad school field work at Allen harbor all the time. Let me know if you want me to check on your boats.

Curm's boat (Kristina) is in the same yard - on the other side from me. Last time I checked the Spike burgee was still flying from the starboard spreader. I have a lot of boat "friends" to check on after tomorrow...

#70 B.J. Porter

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 03:53 AM

uck. A friend of mine just relayed a commissioned weather forecasting service prediction for Narragansett Bay.... possible 90 kt winds late Monday night...... Sheezus. I'm stuck overseas with 2 boats on moorings in Narragansett Bay..... Fingers crossed I guess.


Just as long as they don't end up getting thrown through my unshuttered picture windows...

#71 floating dutchman

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 05:53 AM


uck. A friend of mine just relayed a commissioned weather forecasting service prediction for Narragansett Bay.... possible 90 kt winds late Monday night...... Sheezus. I'm stuck overseas with 2 boats on moorings in Narragansett Bay..... Fingers crossed I guess.


Just as long as they don't end up getting thrown through my unshuttered picture windows...


Your going to have to sit down and ponder this very important question:

Could Left Hook do more damage than a hurricane?

No easy answer to that one.

Hang onto to your hat BJ. and take care!

#72 Ajax

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 08:38 AM

For those of us on the Chesapeake, there doesn't seem to be any significant surge predicted for the next 77 hours. We can focus on the wind and our dock lines/anchor rode.

Source: NOAA
Posted Image

#73 floating dutchman

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 08:44 AM

Well that sound's like sort of "good news".

You hang onto to your hat. and take care too.

#74 Innocent Bystander

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 11:20 AM

For those of us on the Chesapeake, there doesn't seem to be any significant surge predicted for the next 77 hours. We can focus on the wind and our dock lines/anchor rode.

Source: NOAA
Posted Image


Thanks Ajax,

Two feet of surge this AM in Solomons. Wind was relatively light overnight (less than 20). Rain increasing and wind appears to be picking up a bit. Shift to the SW tomorrow may send some surge up the Bay.

Be careful. Pleanty of places for you to crash. You going to the office or staying home today?

#75 Tom Ray

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 12:00 PM

A link for you smartphone people.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sfcover.gif

That page always has only the one GIF image on it and their server never seems to be down or busy. If you are in a low bandwidth area and just want a general idea of what wind/pressure/temps are like, it's useful.

Posted Image

#76 Estar

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 12:41 PM

Two highest wind offshore buoy's this morning:

Chesapeake Light (43kts at 7am) has (apparently) plateaued:
Attached File  ChesapeakeLight.png   16.39K   2 downloads

Brandywine shoals - mouth of Del bay - (41kts at 7am) still increasing:
Attached File  BrandywineShoalLight.png   22.75K   4 downloads

Interestingly the winds at Cape Hatteras had declined (32kts at 7am)
Attached File  capehatteras.png   25.92K   7 downloads

Surge (above MHHW) now forecast at 2ft in Annapolis

Buzzards Bay is at 36kts and going up:
Attached File  buzards bay.png   16.43K   5 downloads

Surge now forecast at 8' at Port Jeff and

The good news . . . still looking like good passagemaking weather starting 11/2 and after.

#77 MoeAlfa

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 12:43 PM

Re mobile weather, AT&T bandwidth goes to virtual zero around here as soon as the power goes out. Don't know about the others. I am "essential" personnel at work, but I will be awfully hard to reach once the battery in our FIOS box goes dead.

#78 kent_island_sailor

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 01:01 PM

I got out of camping at work because I live on an island so they picked someone closer. Got both Verizon and AT&T, so we'll see which one hangs on.

Re mobile weather, AT&T bandwidth goes to virtual zero around here as soon as the power goes out. Don't know about the others. I am "essential" personnel at work, but I will be awfully hard to reach once the battery in our FIOS box goes dead.



#79 Ajax

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 01:08 PM


For those of us on the Chesapeake, there doesn't seem to be any significant surge predicted for the next 77 hours. We can focus on the wind and our dock lines/anchor rode.

Source: NOAA
Posted Image


Thanks Ajax,

Two feet of surge this AM in Solomons. Wind was relatively light overnight (less than 20). Rain increasing and wind appears to be picking up a bit. Shift to the SW tomorrow may send some surge up the Bay.

Be careful. Pleanty of places for you to crash. You going to the office or staying home today?


I'm at the office now. I have a meeting at 11, and I'm really hoping it doesn't grind on all day. I hope to leave soon after that, and I told 'em I'm not coming in tomorrow.

I set an alarm for high tide at 2am this morning so that I could adjust my lines if necessary, and the tide levels were normal for a full moon. When I left the boat at 5:30 this morning, I sealed her up tight. Water levels were still normal. Winds are from the north or NE right now, around 20-ish knots.
Clove Hitch will probably let me know if anything goes wrong with the boat over the next few hours.

I'm prepared for an extended power loss in terms of water, food, fuel, heat, etc. The marina has wired a generator to the bath house, so we'll have facilities in any case.

#80 curm

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 01:33 PM

Well Brodie, let's hope the dominos don't fall at Clark's. I went down on Saturday to close everything up and put some extra lines on my Fairclough cover. Gary Clark said he would be monitoring jackstands throughout the storm.

#81 B.J. Porter

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 01:39 PM

Re mobile weather, AT&T bandwidth goes to virtual zero around here as soon as the power goes out. Don't know about the others. I am "essential" personnel at work, but I will be awfully hard to reach once the battery in our FIOS box goes dead.


That's not so good, AT&T cellular is my internet right now.

I might have to start e-mailing people with the pactorbator.

#82 Ajax

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 02:08 PM

Eww. Make sure you point that thing away from me, before you start pactorbating.

#83 MoeAlfa

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 02:14 PM


Re mobile weather, AT&amp;T bandwidth goes to virtual zero around here as soon as the power goes out. Don't know about the others. I am "essential" personnel at work, but I will be awfully hard to reach once the battery in our FIOS box goes dead.


That's not so good, AT&amp;T cellular is my internet right now.

I might have to start e-mailing people with the pactorbator.

We're in an urban area where peak loads are off the scale. You may be fine down there.

#84 Mung Breath

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 02:40 PM

Wind starting to pick up in inland CT. CdT is secured between pilings upriver in Branford, CT. As long as surge is only 4-5' above historic highs, all should be fine.

Good luck to all of you.

#85 Brodie

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 03:47 PM

I don't envy the boatyard guys who have to keep an eye on 50+ boats in this mess. At least the surge was only 2' this morning here. Should be a little more this afternoon.

#86 Ajax

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 04:54 PM

Where are you Brodie?

#87 Joli

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 05:03 PM

Evans, have you overlaid the 500mb trough and the surface low? Are they stacking up as originally predicted? I get the feeling that may have changed.

#88 SailAR

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 05:30 PM

Surge for this morning's high tide was about 2 feet less than Irene's peak here in WLIS. Tonight looks bad if the additional 3-5 ft comes in.

#89 Mung Breath

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 05:38 PM

Well Brodie, let's hope the dominos don't fall at Clark's. I went down on Saturday to close everything up and put some extra lines on my Fairclough cover. Gary Clark said he would be monitoring jackstands throughout the storm.


Good luck, Curm!

#90 Brodie

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 05:59 PM

Ajax, I'm in Jamestown, RI, in Narragansett Bay. Curm's boat is in the same yard as mine. Wind starting to pick up here but still have power. Stay safe everyone!

#91 hard aground

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 06:39 PM

Good luck guys! Stay safe too.

#92 Ajax

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 06:43 PM

Ajax, I'm in Jamestown, RI, in Narragansett Bay. Curm's boat is in the same yard as mine. Wind starting to pick up here but still have power. Stay safe everyone!


Fingers crossed for you, Brodie & Curm. I'm on the boat now, and it's nuking. 29-40 knots and more on the way. The extra lines I put on have helped stabilize the boat, so I'm riding well. Taking the wind on the beam though, so there's some heeling. The fucking opening head window needs a gasket so it's dripping. I put a bowl under it.

#93 Estar

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 07:10 PM

Evans, have you overlaid the 500mb trough and the surface low? Are they stacking up as originally predicted? I get the feeling that may have changed.


It looks to be developing very close to what was predicted 48 hrs ago - the upper trough is now sucking the center into the west.

I think perhaps the hurricane core is bit more compact (100miles) than was forecast, and they have just reduced tonight's max gust strengths in the latest forecasts for the upper bay (where Hawk is).

As a side note I would be much happier out at anchor than on the hard as Hawk is - I know what to do at anchor, while I am just a spectator with her on the hard.

It's now blowing 44kts at the entrance to the Ches bay, and 40kts at the entrance to the Delaware, and 30kts up the Ches bay where Hawk is, and we have quite a bit to go yet on the baro fall. (note: you can see by the shape of the baro falls that the center is going to be much closer to the deleware than the Ches).

Ches: Attached File  ches bay.png   17K   9 downloads
Deleware:Attached File  plot_wind_pres.png   25K   7 downloads

The current storm surge forecasts are apparently just above the NYC subway limit - so if it develops as forecast they will have a real mess. Other than each of our own little micro dramas with our own boats, NYC flooding and coastal damage in jersey and long island is where the big story is going to be.

The lastest marine forecasts for Newport (RI) are not so bad (considering) - This afternoon..NE winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 65 kt. , Tonight..SE winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 60 kt., Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 k. So, if you sirvive the surge tonight you are thru it.

#94 Ajax

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 07:22 PM

For the record, this SUCKS.

#95 Kaptainkriz

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 07:27 PM

Hang on dude!

For the record, this SUCKS.



#96 MoeAlfa

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 07:57 PM

Just got a call from a dock mate saying our boat was OK. Bless the man!

Hang in there, Ajax.

#97 Joli

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 08:21 PM

Good lord, the pressure just fell off a cliff. Wishing you guys all the best this evening. Hang on!

#98 rattus32

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 08:21 PM

Hang on dude!


For the record, this SUCKS.


When I saw this, I had a visual of Ajax on deck, hanging on the lifelines, feet streaming in the wind... ;-)

Ajax, sounds like you have the skill part down - so best of luck!

#99 Ajax

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 08:49 PM

Thomas Pt. recording 37, gusting to nearly 50kts now. We get some nice lulls now and again.

#100 Estar

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Posted 29 October 2012 - 08:50 PM

My pressure is 28.77 and according to the gribs it will go down to 28.2, so actually not all that much yet to fall. But its suppose to continue blowing even after bottoming out.. . . but Ajax look for a wind shift to the W, SW.

Thomas point light near me - now blowing 38kts.

Attached File  plot_wind_pres.png   16.89K   4 downloads




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