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Red shift Wx- Impending Nor'Easter


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#1 DryArmour

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Posted 04 November 2012 - 03:28 PM

The 2012 Tropical Weather season has been full of surprises. Most notably for me a s a forecaster have been the constant shifts to the left with regard to storm system's trajectories from the model forecasts looking out past 72 hours. This week we have yet another system emanating in the Bahamas and according to the GFS model runs this morning it is targeting the Northeast early THURSDAY morning with a 982mb center (also trending lower) and Gale to storm force winds from New Jersey to Nova Scotia. Left front quadrant has plenty of moisture as well.

We'll have to see how this one plays out but I am pretty sure the folks in the Northeast have seen enough of mother nature's fury for a while. Pay attention and once again prepare for the impending system assuming forecasts come to fruition.

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#2 Sean

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Posted 04 November 2012 - 03:33 PM

Fabulous. Can't wait.

#3 Trendsetter

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Posted 04 November 2012 - 03:43 PM

Thanks for the heads up. Guess I will leave the doubled up lines on the boat this week

#4 DryArmour

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 01:57 PM

Thanks for the heads up. Guess I will leave the doubled up lines on the boat this week


The forecast has not improved. In fact the CMC has gotten a bit more intense with the system that will form tomorrow and be off Hatteras overnight on Wednesday. Of particular concern is the northern shore of Long Island Sound, the coastal strip in New Jersey and Maryland and some issues in Massachusetts where the ground is already pretty saturated from Hurricane Sandy.

I do not have any knowledge of how much of the small debris the local municipal services have been able to haul away but if the TV reports showing piles of debris at curbside are correct and this refuse will not be picked up by a trash service by Wednesday, it could be a scary 24 hours in the streets from Coastal North Carolina through Northern New England.

If you have a trash pile with relatively light objects in it, do what you can to secure the debris before Wednesday even if that means driving to the dump yourself if you have the means to do so...

#5 MikeR

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 02:00 PM

Ugh!

#6 R Booth

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 03:00 PM

Jfc, and people wonder why we put up with mudslides, fires and earthquakes on this side.

Y'all be safe over there.......

#7 Innocent Bystander

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 03:32 PM

Jfc, and people wonder why we put up with mudslides, fires and earthquakes on this side.

Y'all be safe over there.......


We've seen the carnage a couple of drops of rain can do to the 5. You can't stand the rain.

#8 R Booth

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 03:39 PM


Jfc, and people wonder why we put up with mudslides, fires and earthquakes on this side.

Y'all be safe over there.......


We've seen the carnage a couple of drops of rain can do to the 5. You can't stand the rain.


I'm working on getting that shit banned forever here in Kali.....

#9 DryArmour

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 03:59 PM



Jfc, and people wonder why we put up with mudslides, fires and earthquakes on this side.

Y'all be safe over there.......


We've seen the carnage a couple of drops of rain can do to the 5. You can't stand the rain.


I'm working on getting that shit banned forever here in Kali.....


I'd sign that ballot measure.

#10 R Booth

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 04:41 PM




Jfc, and people wonder why we put up with mudslides, fires and earthquakes on this side.

Y'all be safe over there.......


We've seen the carnage a couple of drops of rain can do to the 5. You can't stand the rain.


I'm working on getting that shit banned forever here in Kali.....


I'd sign that ballot measure.


Rain---the Faceless Killer.....

#11 Innocent Bystander

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 04:56 PM

I'm still waiting for Northern California to realize how much they could charge you for drinking water.

#12 DryArmour

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 06:35 PM

I'm still waiting for Northern California to realize how much they could charge you for drinking water.


Shhhhhh, Be Vewy vewy quiet or you will wake up the Sacramento Wabbit.

#13 Snaggletooth

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 06:39 PM

Sacrementle Wabbite? Wearedo you go chuche?

:)

#14 Nonchalant

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 06:52 PM

Some folks I know left by sailboat Saturday from New York Harbour bound for Bermuda, is this storm in thier path?

#15 DryArmour

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 06:59 PM

Some folks I know left by sailboat sarueday from New York Harbour bound for Bermuda, is thisa storm in thier path?

Some folks I know left by sailboat sarueday from New York Harbour bound for Bermuda, is thisa storm in thier path?


YES...and there is a more minor disturbance rolling through today. I actually posted a note about a Nor'Easter due on Wednesday in the Hurricane Sandy thread last Monday. I am surprised anyone would go to sea without looking carefully at the forecast this time of year. Hope they are okay. If you can reach them and want them to chat with me they are welcome to call. Their current LAT/LON, SOG , COG and boat type will help as well.

#16 smelly weasel

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 07:30 PM

Great- I've got business in the City this week... JFK closed Thursday? I knew we should have re-scheduled this.

#17 DryArmour

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 07:39 PM


Some folks I know left by sailboat sarueday from New York Harbour bound for Bermuda, is thisa storm in thier path?

Some folks I know left by sailboat sarueday from New York Harbour bound for Bermuda, is thisa storm in thier path?


YES...and there is a more minor disturbance rolling through today. I actually posted a note about a Nor'Easter due on Wednesday in the Hurricane Sandy thread last Monday. I am surprised anyone would go to sea without looking carefully at the forecast this time of year. Hope they are okay. If you can reach them and want them to chat with me they are welcome to call. Their current LAT/LON, SOG , COG and boat type will help as well.


Not sure what kind of boat they are on but If they are not half way across yet they are in for some sketchy conditions. Hope they have a storm blade and know how to heave to...There just isn't an easy way around this thing now if you are headed for the Rock of Bermuda...

#18 DA-WOODY

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    COUGARS COUGARS & More COUGARS

Posted 05 November 2012 - 08:25 PM

Jfc, and people wonder why we put up with mudslides, fires and earthquakes on this side.

Y'all be safe over there.......


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Don't Start a Stampede

I thought you got a 2nd home in FL (to catch Water) ?????

#19 R Booth

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 08:28 PM

It never ends......

#20 Bulbhunter

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 08:34 PM

I'm still waiting for Northern California to realize how much they could charge you for drinking water.


LOL many cities already bottle it and sell it at what $12 a gallon - and that is right out of the tap. Socal's issue is that they don't pay enough for their water so you still have people running sprinklers at 2pm in the middle of the day and you still see cities doing this with water running down gutters. Nor Cal you get a ticket if you do that and in most cases we pay more for our water to start with. LOL

We had a little leak in our SF condo last billing cycle - two units on one meter 3 adults 1 child in the entire building - 4 sprinkler heads on timer in the back - two months $930 water bill! Our standard bill is around $350

#21 DryArmour

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 08:37 PM


I'm still waiting for Northern California to realize how much they could charge you for drinking water.


LOL many cities already bottle it and sell it at what $12 a gallon - and that is right out of the tap. Socal's issue is that they don't pay enough for their water so you still have people running sprinklers at 2pm in the middle of the day and you still see cities doing this with water running down gutters. Nor Cal you get a ticket if you do that and in most cases we pay more for our water to start with. LOL

We had a little leak in our SF condo last billing cycle - two units on one meter 3 adults 1 child in the entire building - 4 sprinkler heads on timer in the back - two months $930 water bill! Our standard bill is around $350


Yow, that is quite a water bill! We are a family of five, water the lawn daily at 5AM and we usually run around $120 a month. Everyone showers or baths 1-2 times a day...Pricey up there!

#22 yowie

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 10:59 PM

Sacrementle Wabbite? Wearedo you go chuche?

:)

With the Brotherhood of the Holy Hand grenade of Antioch?
On a serious note, Mark, I and others down under also have appreciated your weather posts for keeping tabs on loved ones' safety during Sandy Thank you.


#23 DryArmour

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 12:26 PM

4AM PST UPDATE

The Northeast is getting a reprieve this morning from the GFS and CMC weather model runs. If their forecasts prove correct the center of the low pressure system set to wind up tonight through Thursday off the Carolina coast is a fair ways further offshore than earlier indicated. This is good in two ways. Long Island sound gets wind from the NE or NNE instead of ENE which reduces the water buildup and there will be less storm surge as the center of the low never comes ashore based on this most recent projection. The intensity of the low has also bee throttled back a bit. Fingers crossed that this all comes to fruition in the end. More as the forecast continues to bring clarity for what you can all expect on the RIGHT COAST...Now go VOTE.

#24 Sean

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 01:45 PM

4AM PST UPDATE

The Northeast is getting a reprieve this morning from the GFS and CMC weather model runs. If their forecasts prove correct the center of the low pressure system set to wind up tonight through Thursday off the Carolina coast is a fair ways further offshore than earlier indicated. This is good in two ways. Long Island sound gets wind from the NE or NNE instead of ENE which reduces the water buildup and there will be less storm surge as the center of the low never comes ashore based on this most recent projection. The intensity of the low has also bee throttled back a bit. Fingers crossed that this all comes to fruition in the end. More as the forecast continues to bring clarity for what you can all expect on the RIGHT COAST...Now go VOTE.


What should we expect on the east end of Long Island?
Really appreciate your updates, thanks

#25 Nonchalant

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 04:09 PM

Hey Dry Armour

Re Bermuda, My friends made it safe and sound, though big seas and 30-40 knts for 2 of the 3 days and 15 hour trip.

#26 DryArmour

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 09:55 PM

Hey Dry Armour

Re Bermuda, My friends made it safe and sound, though big seas and 30-40 knts for 2 of the 3 days and 15 hour trip.


Very relieved to hear that. I was crossing my fingers they weren't on a Catalina 42 or similar. What type of boat were they on?

#27 kmccabe

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 09:57 PM

The 2012 Tropical Weather season has been full of surprises. Most notably for me a s a forecaster have been the constant shifts to the left with regard to storm system's trajectories from the model forecasts looking out past 72 hours.


Lets hope that problem is stopped today.

#28 DryArmour

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 10:01 PM


4AM PST UPDATE

The Northeast is getting a reprieve this morning from the GFS and CMC weather model runs. If their forecasts prove correct the center of the low pressure system set to wind up tonight through Thursday off the Carolina coast is a fair ways further offshore than earlier indicated. This is good in two ways. Long Island sound gets wind from the NE or NNE instead of ENE which reduces the water buildup and there will be less storm surge as the center of the low never comes ashore based on this most recent projection. The intensity of the low has also bee throttled back a bit. Fingers crossed that this all comes to fruition in the end. More as the forecast continues to bring clarity for what you can all expect on the RIGHT COAST...Now go VOTE.


What should we expect on the east end of Long Island?
Really appreciate your updates, thanks


Breeze on by tomorrow morning at Sunrise (Trees should be whistling by 3AM). 30-45 knots mostly from 040-050. Increasing to 35-45 with higher gusts until late morning on Thursday. Wind will slowly back to 025 then 010 by Thursday around midnight. Things wind down through Friday...

#29 dacapo

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 11:39 PM

NWS has a winter weather advisory for our area tomorrow afternoonthru Thursday monring. 3-6 in. of snow predicted.....fuck, I HATE the snow

#30 DryArmour

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 01:40 PM

Hurricane force wind warning just offshore for the NE. Winds are on the increase and the system off the Virginia Coast is on the wind. GFS tucks it in and stalls it just SE of Eastern Long Island and then ejects it east tomorrow. Already very breezy over much of the Northeast. Rain, wind and waves are increasing as well. Good luck to all...

#31 Ryley

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 01:43 PM

yep, it was pretty breezy when I got off the boat this morning. I can hardly wait for the big suck tonight. you got any *good* news in your long range forecast, Mark? Like snow only falling on the ski resorts, temperatures in boston to remain balmy in the mid-40s til March?

#32 DryArmour

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 02:07 PM

After this system rolls through things are looking generally nice until next Tuesday. Nothing scary on the current horizon after tomorrow for 9 days. Mostly clear with highs approaching 60 Veterans Day then clouding up Tuesday with a slight chance of rain. The rest of the winter? Not sure I can keep snow limited to the resort levels but I'll make some calls and see what I can do later this morning.

#33 Trendsetter

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 02:10 PM

It has fired up here on the cape, just went around and did a round of the boats here in the yard and the gusts certainly seem to be picking up almost to what it was like last week

#34 DryArmour

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 02:12 PM

It has fired up here on the cape, just went around and did a round of the boats here in the yard and the gusts certainly seem to be picking up almost to what it was like last week


If the models are correct the most severe winds will stay just offshore. We'll see....

#35 Sean

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 04:32 PM


It has fired up here on the cape, just went around and did a round of the boats here in the yard and the gusts certainly seem to be picking up almost to what it was like last week


If the models are correct the most severe winds will stay just offshore. We'll see....


Should be another interesting high tide in Sag Harbor this afternoon. 4:20 high. How appropriate.

#36 kmccabe

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 04:50 PM

its snowing on Wall Street.

#37 KRC

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 06:28 PM

Been snowing pretty well here in SoConn since mid morning. It's starting to stick. Maybe I'll get to try out my new ski boots sooner than anticipated :)

#38 Left Hook

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 06:49 PM

Western CT is getting aggressive snow, incredibly hard, cold, wind driven rain here in Rhode Island. Was totally soaked after walking 5 minutes to class and the waves in the bay are prodigious.

#39 Trendsetter

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 07:10 PM

prodigious, really? what did you just come out of English class? Down on the cape the wind is howling, we have a nice little 1-2' wave action IN the harbor. Last check showed wind gusts over 40mph according to a ST60 masthead... makes walking the docks real entertaining.. no snow and just enough rain to be annoying

#40 SailAR

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 07:10 PM

fantastic. the power lines around my neighborhood are being held up by duct tape and bailing wire... Now some mom in a minivan can slide into the pole and send us into the dark for another week.

#41 BlondeWithFreeBoat

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 07:24 PM

its snowing on Wall Street.


The white tower across the street from my building (midtown) blends in quite nicely now! Coming down hard enough to obscure anything past 3 blocks away. I did not sign up for this :angry:

#42 BrianM

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 07:59 PM

fantastic. the power lines around my neighborhood are being held up by duct tape and bailing wire... Now some mom in a minivan can slide into the pole and send us into the dark for another week.


This is a real concern at the FEMA level. (not the mom, the duct tape.) Lots of the infrastructure that has been repaired isn't very robust - possible for whole sections to collapse again due to their fragile nature.

#43 Left Hook

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 08:27 PM

prodigious, really? what did you just come out of English class? Down on the cape the wind is howling, we have a nice little 1-2' wave action IN the harbor. Last check showed wind gusts over 40mph according to a ST60 masthead... makes walking the docks real entertaining.. no snow and just enough rain to be annoying


Had an English teacher in high school who believed in the power of vocabulary. I added a few thousand words to my lexicon after one year with him.

#44 dacapo

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 08:35 PM

it's fucking blizzarding here and I HATE It

#45 Christian

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 08:36 PM


prodigious, really? what did you just come out of English class? Down on the cape the wind is howling, we have a nice little 1-2' wave action IN the harbor. Last check showed wind gusts over 40mph according to a ST60 masthead... makes walking the docks real entertaining.. no snow and just enough rain to be annoying


Had an English teacher in high school who believed in the power of vocabulary. I added a few thousand words to my lexicon after one year with him.


Now if you only knew what they mean - that would be laudable

#46 btbotfa

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 08:39 PM

it's fucking blizzarding here and I HATE It

I hear ya kid, lets join the SORC!

#47 Left Hook

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 08:40 PM



prodigious, really? what did you just come out of English class? Down on the cape the wind is howling, we have a nice little 1-2' wave action IN the harbor. Last check showed wind gusts over 40mph according to a ST60 masthead... makes walking the docks real entertaining.. no snow and just enough rain to be annoying


Had an English teacher in high school who believed in the power of vocabulary. I added a few thousand words to my lexicon after one year with him.


Now if you only knew what they mean - that would be laudable

Part of the technique was usage reinforcing the definition Rather than just repeating them it was compulsory to incorporate the definitions of words and their usage into sentences and paragraphs.

For example: Wes knew his vocabulary skills were laudable following his acceptance of an academic award for language technique.

Me grammer is not as much good.

What the fuck were we extolling on before the course of this discussion went awry?

#48 DryArmour

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 10:40 PM

Well...she just made a bit of a left turn. Please return your tray tables to the upright position and place any heavy items under the seat in front of you. The Captain has turned on the seat belt sign...

The good news is that the core of the storm did not detonate the way the GFS had predicted so the surge will be less than originally predicted and the winds won't whip quite as hard but for folks on the Cape and eastern Long Island sound + all points in between it will be quite breezy tonight and damn cold. Hurricane Sandy she isn't but in the wake of a storm like Sandy more stuff will likely get broken when it is all said and done.

Be safe out there people. Winds gusting 60+ last hour in the OBS table for Southern New England...

#49 R Booth

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 11:03 PM

I betcha Chris Matthews' leg is no longer tingling right now......

#50 kmccabe

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 11:09 PM


its snowing on Wall Street.


The white tower across the street from my building (midtown) blends in quite nicely now! Coming down hard enough to obscure anything past 3 blocks away. I did not sign up for this :angry:


its really pretty. It started out as foggy in the harbor (I'm on the 42nd Floor of a building on Wall Street) and then moved to driving snow. Really nice.

I betcha Chris Matthews' leg is no longer tingling right now......


Chris's got some unresolved issues from going to Jesuit schools.

#51 DryArmour

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 11:27 PM

Breezy now in Nantucket...
NANTUCKET CLOUDY TEMP 43 WIND NE@40 GUST 62 BP29.61S
Fog and blowing 40 In Hyannis. Glad I am forecasting from here at the moment...

#52 Left Hook

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 11:43 PM

Was sustained 35 gusting to 45 at quonset pt ri this afternoon around 3. Would make sense that Nantucket is not getting the brunt as it moves north and east. Wind here has shifted to be dead out of the north and steady at 20 with gusts towards 30. No major issues in RI yet. Report from the home front in CT is snow accumulating between 1-3 inches trending more the farther north you get.

Fucking cold and nasty rain though.

#53 BlondeWithFreeBoat

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 11:44 PM

Breezy now in Nantucket...
NANTUCKET CLOUDY TEMP 43 WIND NE@40 GUST 62 BP29.61S
Fog and blowing 40 In Hyannis. Glad I am forecasting from here at the moment...


I keep getting urgent messages from my building that we have to take our furniture off the balconies due to high wind advisory/gusts at 58. (Of course, I'm stuck at work so I hope people in my neighborhood just duck...) :(

#54 Bulbhunter

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 11:56 PM

Damn and the knocks just keep coming. Talked to a good friend yesterday living here in SF owns a place in NY and has family in NJ. His NY place survived no issues to his surprise. He said a good friend of his the whole first floor of his building was under water from Sandy and the building shifted - they red tagged it so now that guy is out of a place. The family farm in NJ has well over 100 trees down from Sandy. Freaking Noreaster is the last thing those folks need now.

#55 kmccabe

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 12:17 AM

looks like we have a blizzard outside.

#56 No.6

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 12:22 AM

It does. The first snowfall is always so pretty...until it sucks.

Speaking of sucks, did I mention I hate ConEd?

#57 Snaggletooth

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 12:27 AM

It does. The first snowfall is always so pretty...until it sucks.

Speaking of sucks, did I mention I hate ConEd?

Hoe is cone d?? Coade foure expo? Or somboby ealse?

:)

#58 R Booth

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 12:50 AM

Breezy now in Nantucket...
NANTUCKET CLOUDY TEMP 43 WIND NE@40 GUST 62 BP29.61S
Fog and blowing 40 In Hyannis. Glad I am forecasting from here at the moment...


Oh yeah, fog and forty. Nice.

Knot......

#59 Sean

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 01:01 AM

A little frisky on the East End right now. Still a few boats on moorings in Sag Harbor. Hope they checked mooring gear after Sandy!

#60 Footlong

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 01:15 AM

Just heard a transformer blow up.

#61 R Booth

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 01:23 AM

Just heard a transformer blow up.


At the Motel 6?.....

#62 couchsurfer

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 01:33 AM

A little frisky on the East End right now. Still a few boats on moorings in Sag Harbor. Hope they checked mooring gear after Sandy!


..........if they made it through sandy............................?


...I can't beleive you folks are getting another beating already :blink:



.......if I had a boat out there,,,I'd probably have forgotten about it already :mellow:

#63 DryArmour

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 02:36 AM

The storm continues to be parked south of Newport but should eject NE shortly. Hope you are all doing well and the power is still on.

#64 Trendsetter

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 03:58 AM

Saw gusts still over 60 and wind steady over 35 when I did my 9 o'clock dock walk. It is nasty and cold. No fog but driving drizzle and just plain ugly out. The sound also didn't look to inviting

I am curious though we had a sailboat hell bent on getting out of dodge on Monday midday hope they faired ok she was an older early 70's boat with four guys heading to the islands...




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