221 replies to this topic

[Estar]

Just saw that WonderTime updated their position - only 96nm left to go. and a good forecast all the way in.

[JBE]

My friends had a hard night last night in a tough SE and strong currents off North cape, they should be getting into Opua soon, perhaps in an hour or so. A very hard last 100 miles. Quick boat too, 170 miles the first 24 hours out of Noumea.


Another yacht has needed assistance last night about 30 miles off Great exhibition bay ( close to North cape), must have broken something to be leaking like that.

http://www.northerna...rescue/1632097/

[Paps]

Off beat post but here seemed the most sensible. They had a send off yesterday for the Air Force Hercules which are being retired after a long and valuable service. It made me think of the Orion's which have given similar service over water.

[rclouise]

To the many who made the crossing and faced SE winds over their last 18 hours. Enjoy the great Thanksgiving dinner that the Opua Yacht Club puts on for all of you. And yes they do real Turkey.
Happy Thanksgiving.

[Estar]

looks like Wondertime made landfall and is on the dock at Opua. Congrats to them . . . they did not have the easiest weather to do it with a busted transmission.

[Cwinsor]

I tell you what, SA/CA should be required reading for anyone working toward any kind of offshore captain certifications.

This shit just blows me away.

+1

[aquila]

The Boat recently washed ashore in Australia apparently on relatively good nick initially but was soon looted.
http://www.abc.net.a...4?&section=news
thoughts?

[ozzie]

Not exactly in good nick...

https://www.facebook.com/PolAirNSWPF
<p>
<p>

[ozzie]

A comment from the PolAir facebook page about "WINDIGO".

Maybe they should rename it "whereditgo"

[Ishmael]

Not exactly in good nick...

https://www.facebook.com/PolAirNSWPF
<p>
<p>

That will buff right out.

[ozzie]

YouTube video of "Windigo"

[aquila]

http://www.abc.net.a...bc-news/4559546
55sec in

['No.6]

Asking for their stuff back? Seriously? Someone should send them a bill for the removal of what is left.

[Paps]

Stick a dick in your ear Sac.

['No.6]

Tragically I agree with 6. The lubberly arseholes who abandoned a perfectly good boat without scuttling it should be made to pay import duty into Oz, pollution and cleanup costs, forfeit their boat and be prosecuted for a range of maritime crimes. They had absolutely no moral right to be out there in the first place.

I don't know about any of that. I do know if they cared so much for their boat, they would have gone to great efforts to recover her before she washed up on the beach. Thus complaining about the boat being stripped is a bit of a whine.
I do know I tend to like boats and animals more than people and you sir are no exception.

['No.6]

I've sailed a little over 100k, got a trip around the marble under my belt and in possession of a Mixter Trophy (Google it).
Your turn.

['No.6]

You know when you think everyone else is an asshole, it probably isn't them.

[Paps]

Exactly. Its interesting he slams Seppos but hasnt the guts to declare his own nationality. I do hope he is not one of ours.

And for the record Sac amongst other things I have a 6000nm crossing on my CV.

[Paps]

OK so you support 2 ignorant, inexperienced idiots sailing a passage they shouldn't have been, abandoning their boat when they didn't need to, pretending to be injured when they only had a couple of scratches, costing the NZ taxpayer plus the other ship a shitload of money, ultimately affecting all other Bluewater sailors with adverse publicity affecting legislation and premiums? Maybe this is where you set your standards but some people out there actually look out for themselves.

Not at all, I am merely suggesting that you are an obnoxious Qunt.

[Bob Perry]

I think this is one of those times when the "ignore" function comes in handy. If you don't know how to do it I can explain.

[Beau.Vrolyk]

Bob, good to see you 'round. I just dropped in after a few months and found this. I can see little has changed. But the Sliver thread looks grand. See ya 'round, BV

[Bob Perry]

Actually Beau it's been pretty civila round here for quite a while. But now we have sac to deal with. I'll use ignore. He seems an angry little man.

['No.6]

Exactly. Its interesting he slams Seppos but hasnt the guts to declare his own nationality. I do hope he is not one of ours.

And for the record Sac amongst other things I have a 6000nm crossing on my CV.

Dale-dug-a-justbob-car mentioned something about the nightlife in Noumea being preferable to posting on SA a while back. So while anyone can say they are anywhere on the internet, it seems he is in New Caledonia. Based on all that, he is probably one of yours who has left Oz to hide away. I know when I was in Vanuatu a number of ex-pats were there, seemingly in hiding from an estranged spouse or the government. But he could just as easily be some little pimple-faced wank sitting in his parents basement in Connecticut.
It has been my experience that those who carry on as he likes to do haven't actually done fukall in life but likes to pretend otherwise. Has something to do with a lack of self worth I guess. Those with actual experience, while they tend not to come right out and say so for the most part, understand that while they may have an opinion on such circumstances lean towards not judging too harshly not knowing the full scope of a given situation.
Best to just laugh at him.

[Steam Flyer]

Exactly. Its interesting he slams Seppos but hasnt the guts to declare his own nationality. I do hope he is not one of ours.

....

Well, we can't take him. We are already way way over our quota for obnoxious dumbasses.

And btw Paps there are no doubts about your bona fides.

FB- Dou

[Ishmael]

Judging from the level of hate and ignorance, I'd say we're dealing with a twelve year-old North Korean. Ignore.

[Trickypig]

Exactly. Its interesting he slams Seppos but hasnt the guts to declare his own nationality. I do hope he is not one of ours.

And for the record Sac amongst other things I have a 6000nm crossing on my CV.

I have given lots of hints but you dumb seppos can't work it out. Besides, you jerkoffs are small fish in a big pond so nobody actually cares about you. My situation is different.
Only 6000 miles? Fingie.

There are plenty here on Anarchy who have very comprehensive sailing CVs and you continue to posture like some self appointed Oracle. The problem is you are coming over in print like a complete idiot and many here are tiring of posters like you. The fact that you use "Seppo" means you are quite likely an Aussie, which is a shame as by and large Aussies and Seppos get along.

So why don't you just piss off?

[Trickypig]

Wooo, a bit of anger about these days. I save my sailing talk for forums that are full of sailors, this forum is full of opiniated wannabes so I just try to fit in.

You were better off not typing that ... now you've removed all doubt.

[blackjenner]

That pic says it all.

No, it does not "say all". It tells us nothing more than the boat is floating at the instant this picture was taken.

We really know fuck all about what happened out there on that particular boat.

At the same time, I know many of the contributors here know "fuck all" about sailing and cruising.

And that's all I'll contribute to this wasted jump to fucking conclusions thread.

[Diarmuid]

Exactly. Its interesting he slams Seppos but hasnt the guts to declare his own nationality. I do hope he is not one of ours.

....

Well, we can't take him. We are already way way over our quota for obnoxious dumbasses.

'Sokay. Congress just raised the Obnoxious Dumbass Ceiling -- mostly to make more room for themselves -- so we have space for Fix-A-Flat. He'll fit right in.

Anyhoo. I'm not sure how to feel about the owners' situation. It sucks, obviously, and I don't wish it on anyone. But it seems like they chose not to to buy hull insurance, then to call for a rescue (in what was, apparently, quite the little pop-up bomblet). At that point -- when you call in outside aid and abandon your vessel -- you are kinda ceding control over the situation, aren't you? I'm not interested in second-guessing their decision to abandon: ain't them, warn't there. But complaining people are stripping winches off the boat you abandoned wholesale (and did not have the courtesy or wherewithal to scuttle) cuz you need the money those winches represent ... seems a bit horse-outta-the-barn, doesn't it? And rights do entail responsibilities -- if you think the boat and its parts are still yours by rights or by law, doesn't le Troll make a reasonable point? You want the salvage, you handle the cleanup.

I hope everything works out for these people. They seem like decent folks in a tough bind, and who really is so arrogant they can't imagine themselves in a similar place? Certainly hope they can recover their personal effects, possibly some net worth from the salvage, and get on with the next thing. But perhaps a gentle word in the ear is due: You have your lives, it's just a boat, you made the call which was more valuable when you fired off the EPIRB. Let it go.

[Trickypig]

Exactly. Its interesting he slams Seppos but hasnt the guts to declare his own nationality. I do hope he is not one of ours.

....

Well, we can't take him. We are already way way over our quota for obnoxious dumbasses.

'Sokay. Congress just raised the Obnoxious Dumbass Ceiling -- mostly to make more room for themselves -- so we have space for Fix-A-Flat. He'll fit right in.

Anyhoo. I'm not sure how to feel about the owners' situation. It sucks, obviously, and I don't wish it on anyone. But it seems like they chose not to to buy hull insurance, then to call for a rescue (in what was, apparently, quite the little pop-up bomblet). At that point -- when you call in outside aid and abandon your vessel -- you are kinda ceding control over the situation, aren't you? I'm not interested in second-guessing their decision to abandon: ain't them, warn't there. But complaining people are stripping winches off the boat you abandoned wholesale (and did not have the courtesy or wherewithal to scuttle) cuz you need the money those winches represent ... seems a bit horse-outta-the-barn, doesn't it? And rights do entail responsibilities -- if you think the boat and its parts are still yours by rights or by law, doesn't le Troll make a reasonable point? You want the salvage, you handle the cleanup.

I hope everything works out for these people. They seem like decent folks in a tough bind, and who really is so arrogant they can't imagine themselves in a similar place? Certainly hope they can recover their personal effects, possibly some net worth from the salvage, and get on with the next thing. But perhaps a gentle word in the ear is due: You have your lives, it's just a boat, you made the call which was more valuable when you fired off the EPIRB. Let it go.

Nicely put.

I think Troll is better suited to Political Anarchy where he spends his days name calling. Sometimes I wish that there was no direct path on the site between PA/GA and the sailing threads.

['No.6]

You reap what you sow.

[Editor]

So I post an opinion on a cruising forum about a cruising incident and you hateful cunts take the opportunity to slag off at me. Then you profess to be hard arse sailor folks who have done it all and sailed the world but won't address my opinion BECAUSE YOU CAN'T. Is a cruising forum for cruising topics anymore. Racist fuckwits.

dude - stop being such a twat.

[Bob Perry]

I'd diagnose a sever case of hemroids. That would account for his anger. But it wouldn't account for his limited vocabulary.
I'm really confused as to how we got to be "racist fuckwits". in this thread.

[JBSF]

So I post an opinion on a cruising forum about a cruising incident and you hateful cunts take the opportunity to slag off at me. Then you profess to be hard arse sailor folks who have done it all and sailed the world but won't address my opinion BECAUSE YOU CAN'T. Is a cruising forum for cruising topics anymore. Racist fuckwits.

['No.6]

If you actually said something worthy of a decent response, then perhaps. Will let you know if you even get close.

[asockpuppet]

Nope but we will be happy to put you on ignore.

So none of you amerikan, kill the rest of the world retards are going to actually address my opinion? This place should be called Sailing Fantasy not Anarchy.

[Bob Perry]

SAC:
The best you seem to be able to do is call people names. Most impressive.

['No.6]

That is because he is devoid of actual knowledge or ideas Bob. It is beyond him to do anything more than sling shit and name call.

[Weyalan]

Caveat: I am not an experienced offshore sailor (nor do I profess to be). I've got some offshore miles, but not such as would hold a candle to a lot of you guys.

I will say, though, that fear is a funny thing. Some people are (largely) immune, some people are rendered powerless & paralysed by fear. And (unlike sea-sickness) there isn't a pill that you can pop to allow you to function well when shitting-your-pants scared... you either can or you can't. It is easy to "armchair quarterback", but unless you have been in a situation where you have been in imminent serious danger and are so scared that your hands are shaking, you are sweating and seriously reconsidering your atheist beliefs, it is difficult to put yourself in somebody elses shoes. I've been there a couple of times and, fortunately, have functioned well enough (and been lucky enough) to be here to tell the tale... but I have seen folks who have ceased to be able to think clearly and rationally, or indeed, who have taken to their bunk, in the fetal position.

My point is that the crew of Windigo made some poor or at least questionable planning decisions (probably as a resuly of inexperience, but then again, who hasn't?) and then probably made some more poor decisions when scared. I wonder whether everyone here would have done better in the same spot... I hope and believe I would have, but I'm entirely confident of that.

[Diarmuid]

Damn it, Weyalan. Take your honesty and humanist attitude somewhere else -- can't you see there's a shitfight going on?

Seriously -- nice post. People make the decisions that seem best at the time, & no gaggle of internet posers is likely to second guess you more than you second guess yourself. Might add that I, personally, avoid the other sort of person you mention -- the "largely immune to fear" person. Cuz they are not the best decision-makers, either. Consider the Berserk guys. Would you sail with them? Hell no, not me. People who feel fear but make good choices even as they are in the grip of it -- those are the folks I hope to emulate.

There's also the odd dynamic of a couple or family to consider. So much emotional entanglement, desire to protect, unwillingness to criticize or hurt feelings.... That's a dynamic I will be watching out for as we drop the lines. Unsure exactly what you can do about it, tho. It can make you braver, it can make you more timid. Clouds objective judgement, either way. If such a thing even exists.

[Bob Perry]

"who have taken to their bunk, in the fetal position."

Shitski! I didn't know that was an option.

[olaf hart]

Caveat: I am not an experienced offshore sailor (nor do I profess to be). I've got some offshore miles, but not such as would hold a candle to a lot of you guys.

I will say, though, that fear is a funny thing. Some people are (largely) immune, some people are rendered powerless &amp; paralysed by fear. And (unlike sea-sickness) there isn't a pill that you can pop to allow you to function well when shitting-your-pants scared... you either can or you can't. It is easy to "armchair quarterback", but unless you have been in a situation where you have been in imminent serious danger and are so scared that your hands are shaking, you are sweating and seriously reconsidering your atheist beliefs, it is difficult to put yourself in somebody elses shoes. I've been there a couple of times and, fortunately, have functioned well enough (and been lucky enough) to be here to tell the tale... but I have seen folks who have ceased to be able to think clearly and rationally, or indeed, who have taken to their bunk, in the fetal position.

My point is that the crew of Windigo made some poor or at least questionable planning decisions (probably as a resuly of inexperience, but then again, who hasn't?) and then probably made some more poor decisions when scared. I wonder whether everyone here would have done better in the same spot... I hope and believe I would have, but I'm entirely confident of that.

+1000

There is something about the Tasman Sea, the Southern Ocean and Bass Strait that brings us closer to our God.

[olaf hart]

"who have taken to their bunk, in the fetal position."

Shitski! I didn't know that was an option.

You are correct there Bob, it's not an option.

[Weyalan]

It isn't an option for you. It isn't an option for me, either (well, so far), but some people get more scared than others by particular circumstances and some have a stronger sense of responsibility. And since it wasn't a navy vessel so I didn't outrank anybody and the guy wasn't getting paid, I didn't feel I had any authority to make him get up and play. The situation was not pleasant and it was scary (I was scared) and there certainly was some danger, but enough of us were still functioning that we were handling it... I'm not sure that having a very scared guy on deck who didn't want to be there was gonna help anyway.

[Estar]

some people get more scared than others by particular circumstances

Very approximately 10 - 20% of the people who volunteer to crew to Antarctica crawl into their bunk and will not get out, when they get out into the drake passage and the chile land drops below the horizon, and they are left with the grey and the wind and the ice. The place generates either awe or fear and a surprising number of people don't handle it well (I might note that almost all these people profess to be "experienced" sailors). I completely agree with the comment above its both impossible to guess how someone else will do, and difficult to know how you yourself will do unless you have really been in a near death decision making situation before.

But to return to the thread . . . Interesting that the boat survived for 3 months at sea, apparently with the companionway wide open. It says something in the context if the other thread on "seaworthy" designs. This boat is not one you would pick out as especially seaworthy, but it did just fine all by itself.

[Ishmael]

some people get more scared than others by particular circumstances

Very approximately 10 - 20% of the people who volunteer to crew to Antarctica crawl into their bunk and will not get out, when they get out into the drake passage and the chile land drops below the horizon, and they are left with the grey and the wind and the ice. The place generates either awe or fear and a surprising number of people don't handle it well (I might note that almost all these people profess to be "experienced" sailors). I completely agree with the comment above its both impossible to guess how someone else will do, and difficult to know how you yourself will do unless you have really been in a near death decision making situation before.

But to return to the thread . . . Interesting that the boat survived for 3 months at sea, apparently with the companionway wide open. It says something in the context if the other thread on "seaworthy" designs. This boat is not one you would pick out as especially seaworthy, but it did just fine all by itself.

By that definition, the containers of Japanese origin washing up on the west coast are "seaworthy". Some of them have been out there for two years. They don't go to windward well at all.

['No.6]

It is amazing how small one's world becomes as land slips over the horizon. Never gets old.

[Trickypig]

One boat handling issue we maybe overlooking with this boat is how out of control it may have felt and been in those seas.

The Beneteau they were sailing is of reasonably light displacement and if they were unable to keep her running with the seas or keep her bow up and jogging forward, then the alternative is lying a hull, which is not an alternative when seas are breaking badly.

I was rolled in a Beneteau First 41s5 off Gabo Island in Australia. The seas have a habit of sitting up against the current in shallow water there. It was as easy as pie (albeit frightening and violent) and the boat righted itself sans masthead gear, a drowned HF tuner and some bruising. We spent a day hand steering and despite carrying only a storm jib we were often surfing wildly on waves with heavily breaking crests. Not the sort of `pump the kite and hold a wave for a minute or two surfing', the sort where you look over the edge and swear you are going down the mine with the whitewater and not coming out. I remember thinking "what could one possibly do if you were shorthanded cruising rather than having a full crew of sailors aboard?". The one thing that was certain was that lying a hull wasn't an option in that boat as it would have resulted in being rolled again and again.

Perhaps having been rolled, hurt and feeling everything was out of control, it was enough for the Windigo couple to hit the 406's switch. They may or may not have hand steered and survived the worst after the roll but by then rescue was imminent.

Whilst their boat arrived in Australia without them, I can sort of cut them a bit of slack, I think they felt out of control and possibly facing their demise.

[sparau]

One boat handling issue we maybe overlooking with this boat is how out of control it may have felt and been in those seas.

The Beneteau they were sailing is of reasonably light displacement and if they were unable to keep her running with the seas or keep her bow up and jogging forward, then the alternative is lying a hull, which is not an alternative when seas are breaking badly.

I was rolled in a Beneteau First 41s5 off Gabo Island in Australia. The seas have a habit of sitting up against the current in shallow water there. It was as easy as pie (albeit frightening and violent) and the boat righted itself sans masthead gear, a drowned HF tuner and some bruising. We spent a day hand steering and despite carrying only a storm jib we were often surfing wildly on waves with heavily breaking crests. Not the sort of `pump the kite and hold a wave for a minute or two surfing', the sort where you look over the edge and swear you are going down the mine with the whitewater and not coming out. I remember thinking "what could one possibly do if you were shorthanded cruising rather than having a full crew of sailors aboard?". The one thing that was certain was that lying a hull wasn't an option in that boat as it would have resulted in being rolled again and again.

hi, i have no experience to add here, just a question.

do you think a sea anchor would have been a good option in those conditions? or were you racing and having fun at the same time as being scared witless?


(hopefully not too off topic and incendary)

['No.6]

Drogues are specifically used for slowing a boat down when surfing big waves. The purpose is to stop from plugging the bow into the wave in front of you as you get to the bottom of the trough, resulting in stopping the boat or pitchpoling. They do also help you track instead of spinning out, if you get a little sideways on the face of a wave.

[Trickypig]

One boat handling issue we maybe overlooking with this boat is how out of control it may have felt and been in those seas.

The Beneteau they were sailing is of reasonably light displacement and if they were unable to keep her running with the seas or keep her bow up and jogging forward, then the alternative is lying a hull, which is not an alternative when seas are breaking badly.

I was rolled in a Beneteau First 41s5 off Gabo Island in Australia. The seas have a habit of sitting up against the current in shallow water there. It was as easy as pie (albeit frightening and violent) and the boat righted itself sans masthead gear, a drowned HF tuner and some bruising. We spent a day hand steering and despite carrying only a storm jib we were often surfing wildly on waves with heavily breaking crests. Not the sort of `pump the kite and hold a wave for a minute or two surfing', the sort where you look over the edge and swear you are going down the mine with the whitewater and not coming out. I remember thinking "what could one possibly do if you were shorthanded cruising rather than having a full crew of sailors aboard?". The one thing that was certain was that lying a hull wasn't an option in that boat as it would have resulted in being rolled again and again.

hi, i have no experience to add here, just a question.

do you think a sea anchor would have been a good option in those conditions? or were you racing and having fun at the same time as being scared witless?


(hopefully not too off topic and incendary)

Yes I do think that if that boat were being cruised a set of series drogues off the stern would have helped. However I think that being able to hand steer created the best safety margin and probably prevented knockdowns.

We were delivering the boat home after a Sydney Hobart race so plenty of crew and sails but not much else aboard. We weren't enjoying it. Wind gust recordings ashore were in excess of 70knots.

I did marvel at how we could be often surfing at 17s and 18s with only a storm jib set. That was indicative of how `sucky' the waves were as it wasn't the jib pulling us onto the waves, it was mainly just the size and steepness of the waves.

I'm not sure you could have gone upwind too easily in it as some of the breaking crests were large and thunderous. I understand that in the '98 hobart many boats decided to close reach and the helmsman would turn the boat into a breaking wave when they came along. However I've two friends on two different boats who described the moment when the wave had more power and shoved the boat backwards and rolled them. One was a Swan 44 that had good speed and momentum but was still put back and over. I suppose those conditions were extreme and it was a local situation involving an east coast current and the shallower waters of Bass Straight sitting the waves up. I wonder if in the deeper water another 200 miles or more to sea whether the wave shapes would have been less dangerous.

[WHL]

Tricky, that is reminiscent of our delivery back from Hobart in Jan 2007 on a Bene 1st 47.7... Huge short and steep breakers, sustained high 60kn winds. Hand steering with speed seemed like a better decision for control than heaving too for most of the night, except for one huge breaker from the lee quarter that laid us flat. That was the night that Berri was rolled and lost her rig.

I don't see how anyone that wasn't there can criticise their decision to abandon. It must have been a tough decision for them.

[carcrash]

In the prior week, the gfs and ECMWF models had been a bit out of sync, with the gfs making things look better and the ECMWF worse. With 20/20 hindsight, the ECMWF was more accurate. (as a side note: As ECMWF also was much more accurate with Sandy, I think the folks looking after the GFS model need to see what the ECMWF is factoring in that they are not, and that we sailors need to pay a bit more attention to it).

I am not a weatherman, I am a computer scientist, and I have personally interviewed the head of the NWS in charge of this computer model, in particular, the global hurricane/cyclone forecasting system.

The GFS (Global Forecast System) is developed and operated by the NWS (U.S. National Weather Service). It is a mathematical model of the weather that is run on one of the world's most powerful computer systems. All mathematical models running on computer systems consist of a bunch of mathematical algorithms that produce a result. Human beings write these models, and human beings compare the predictions of the model with observations of what actually happens, and then they tweak the model. This process repeats for years and years and years.

The NWS technical leadership justifies its existence by considering that their budget reduces cost (financial and personal) to the people who pay the taxes that provide their budget. This is a core value of these human beings that are directing how this software is developed and run. While the U.S. has global interests, the clear priority of the NWS is to help people and businesses that are most impacted by weather. People in Southern California are not negatively impacted by weather. Therefore, the NWS forecasts are quite poor for Southern California: the are generally pessimistic (the weather can't possibly STAY beautiful all the time!). The NWS is most concerned about weather between the Rocky Mountains and the Great Lakes, because this is where large corporate farms are greatly impacted by weather, and where tornados and thunderstorms occur that lead to significant property damage, injury, and loss of life. It is also where the most brutal winter storms occur, also leading to widespread risk to people, property, and businesses.

We went through the NWS "quality assurance" process, and the NWS specifically tunes the models to correlate very well with weather in that specific part of the planet -- the Great Plains of the USA -- and they are very good there. But the further one gets from Omaha Nebraska (41N, 95W), the worse the correlation (more or less -- some areas are also modeled very well, such as where North Atlantic Hurricanes begin).

In the datasets we reviewed, the weather forecast was almost exactly opposite from observation on the west coast of Australia.

So I am not surprised that the GFS forecast was less accurate than the forecast by the IFS (Integrated Forecast System) by the ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts).

The huge advantage to the GFS is that *all* its data is in the public domain, whereas for some bizarre reason IFS data is quite restricted. Therefore, if you are a random member of the public and getting weather from a "service" and not from the source, you are much, much more likely to get GFS weather.

[Trickypig]

Tricky, that is reminiscent of our delivery back from Hobart in Jan 2007 on a Bene 1st 47.7... Huge short and steep breakers, sustained high 60kn winds. Hand steering with speed seemed like a better decision for control than heaving too for most of the night, except for one huge breaker from the lee quarter that laid us flat. That was the night that Berri was rolled and lost her rig.

I don't see how anyone that wasn't there can criticise their decision to abandon. It must have been a tough decision for them.

It is a nasty stretch of water off Gabo. Berri has been rolled twice in roughly the same place. The night they were near you and in the 98 Hobart (and kept racing). It's funny to think it has 2 circumnavigations and countless ocean racing miles but only gets rolled there.

[Hobie Dog]

In the prior week, the gfs and ECMWF models had been a bit out of sync, with the gfs making things look better and the ECMWF worse. With 20/20 hindsight, the ECMWF was more accurate. (as a side note: As ECMWF also was much more accurate with Sandy, I think the folks looking after the GFS model need to see what the ECMWF is factoring in that they are not, and that we sailors need to pay a bit more attention to it).

I am not a weatherman, I am a computer scientist, and I have personally interviewed the head of the NWS in charge of this computer model, in particular, the global hurricane/cyclone forecasting system.

The GFS (Global Forecast System) is developed and operated by the NWS (U.S. National Weather Service). It is a mathematical model of the weather that is run on one of the world's most powerful computer systems. All mathematical models running on computer systems consist of a bunch of mathematical algorithms that produce a result. Human beings write these models, and human beings compare the predictions of the model with observations of what actually happens, and then they tweak the model. This process repeats for years and years and years.

The NWS technical leadership justifies its existence by considering that their budget reduces cost (financial and personal) to the people who pay the taxes that provide their budget. This is a core value of these human beings that are directing how this software is developed and run. While the U.S. has global interests, the clear priority of the NWS is to help people and businesses that are most impacted by weather. People in Southern California are not negatively impacted by weather. Therefore, the NWS forecasts are quite poor for Southern California: the are generally pessimistic (the weather can't possibly STAY beautiful all the time!). The NWS is most concerned about weather between the Rocky Mountains and the Great Lakes, because this is where large corporate farms are greatly impacted by weather, and where tornados and thunderstorms occur that lead to significant property damage, injury, and loss of life. It is also where the most brutal winter storms occur, also leading to widespread risk to people, property, and businesses.

We went through the NWS "quality assurance" process, and the NWS specifically tunes the models to correlate very well with weather in that specific part of the planet -- the Great Plains of the USA -- and they are very good there. But the further one gets from Omaha Nebraska (41N, 95W), the worse the correlation (more or less -- some areas are also modeled very well, such as where North Atlantic Hurricanes begin).

In the datasets we reviewed, the weather forecast was almost exactly opposite from observation on the west coast of Australia.

So I am not surprised that the GFS forecast was less accurate than the forecast by the IFS (Integrated Forecast System) by the ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts).

The huge advantage to the GFS is that *all* its data is in the public domain, whereas for some bizarre reason IFS data is quite restricted. Therefore, if you are a random member of the public and getting weather from a "service" and not from the source, you are much, much more likely to get GFS weather.

Interesting!!! Thanks!

[Hobie Dog]

Not exactly in good nick...

https://www.facebook.com/PolAirNSWPF
<p>
<p>

That will buff right out.

It sure will!

Personally I like Beneteau’s but for all of you that trash them like they are the Bayliner of the sailing world, it is interesting that she stayed afloat at sea unattended for 4 months and even landed on the beach in one piece!

[-Julian-]

...
The NWS technical leadership justifies its existence by considering that their budget reduces cost (financial and personal) to the people who pay the taxes that provide their budget. This is a core value of these human beings that are directing how this software is developed and run. While the U.S. has global interests, the clear priority of the NWS is to help people and businesses that are most impacted by weather.

That's an enlightening perspective on the motivation of forcasters. It then follows why ECMWF would be more accurate in the SP based on this theory.

[Total Slacker]

In the prior week, the gfs and ECMWF models had been a bit out of sync, with the gfs making things look better and the ECMWF worse. With 20/20 hindsight, the ECMWF was more accurate. (as a side note: As ECMWF also was much more accurate with Sandy, I think the folks looking after the GFS model need to see what the ECMWF is factoring in that they are not, and that we sailors need to pay a bit more attention to it).

I am not a weatherman, I am a computer scientist, and I have personally interviewed the head of the NWS in charge of this computer model, in particular, the global hurricane/cyclone forecasting system.

The GFS (Global Forecast System) is developed and operated by the NWS (U.S. National Weather Service). It is a mathematical model of the weather that is run on one of the world's most powerful computer systems. All mathematical models running on computer systems consist of a bunch of mathematical algorithms that produce a result. Human beings write these models, and human beings compare the predictions of the model with observations of what actually happens, and then they tweak the model. This process repeats for years and years and years.

The NWS technical leadership justifies its existence by considering that their budget reduces cost (financial and personal) to the people who pay the taxes that provide their budget. This is a core value of these human beings that are directing how this software is developed and run. While the U.S. has global interests, the clear priority of the NWS is to help people and businesses that are most impacted by weather. People in Southern California are not negatively impacted by weather. Therefore, the NWS forecasts are quite poor for Southern California: the are generally pessimistic (the weather can't possibly STAY beautiful all the time!). The NWS is most concerned about weather between the Rocky Mountains and the Great Lakes, because this is where large corporate farms are greatly impacted by weather, and where tornados and thunderstorms occur that lead to significant property damage, injury, and loss of life. It is also where the most brutal winter storms occur, also leading to widespread risk to people, property, and businesses.

We went through the NWS "quality assurance" process, and the NWS specifically tunes the models to correlate very well with weather in that specific part of the planet -- the Great Plains of the USA -- and they are very good there. But the further one gets from Omaha Nebraska (41N, 95W), the worse the correlation (more or less -- some areas are also modeled very well, such as where North Atlantic Hurricanes begin).

In the datasets we reviewed, the weather forecast was almost exactly opposite from observation on the west coast of Australia.

So I am not surprised that the GFS forecast was less accurate than the forecast by the IFS (Integrated Forecast System) by the ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts).

The huge advantage to the GFS is that *all* its data is in the public domain, whereas for some bizarre reason IFS data is quite restricted. Therefore, if you are a random member of the public and getting weather from a "service" and not from the source, you are much, much more likely to get GFS weather.

Crash,

This is one of the most valuable posts I've ever read. It's too bad model analysis information like this isn't more readily available. Instead we look at the multiple models/forecasts and guess which is most likely to occur.

[Ishmael]

Not exactly in good nick...

https://www.facebook.com/PolAirNSWPF
<p>
<p>

That will buff right out.

It sure will!

Personally I like Beneteau’s but for all of you that trash them like they are the Bayliner of the sailing world, it is interesting that she stayed afloat at sea unattended for 4 months and even landed on the beach in one piece!

Imagine how much better shape it would be in if they had let out all their anchor rode before bugging out.

[Dark Cloud]

That is because he is devoid of actual knowledge or ideas Bob. It is beyond him to do anything more than sling shit and name call.

The irony is that those of you who have actually managed to sail downwind and visited my island have likely required my services at some stage and had to pay my charges. I charge amerikans more so I quite like them as clients.

I sincerely hope i never have the misfortune of meeting you anywhere near a boat or water - douchebag of the year. Going on ignore.

[Estar]

...
The NWS technical leadership justifies its existence by considering that their budget reduces cost (financial and personal) to the people who pay the taxes that provide their budget. This is a core value of these human beings that are directing how this software is developed and run. While the U.S. has global interests, the clear priority of the NWS is to help people and businesses that are most impacted by weather.

That's an enlightening perspective on the motivation of forcasters. It then follows why ECMWF would be more accurate in the SP based on this theory.

It's an interesting opinion, but I am not sure it's supported by the facts. If you look at the Southern Hemisphere accuracy vs northern hemisphere accuracy (chart below) GFS is worse that the euro model in both, and the gap is not even noticably better in the northern hemisphere. Also hurricanes have a very significant economic impact on the USA and GFS is worse at both the Track and intensity of east coast hurricanes.
 image.jpg   162.25K   10 downloads

But to be balanced it astonishing how good both models are over the whole globe. It's just that for some reason, apparently having to do with initialization data, the euro model is slightly but systematically better.

[monsoon]

In the prior week, the gfs and ECMWF models had been a bit out of sync, with the gfs making things look better and the ECMWF worse. With 20/20 hindsight, the ECMWF was more accurate. (as a side note: As ECMWF also was much more accurate with Sandy, I think the folks looking after the GFS model need to see what the ECMWF is factoring in that they are not, and that we sailors need to pay a bit more attention to it).

I am not a weatherman, I am a computer scientist, and I have personally interviewed the head of the NWS in charge of this computer model, in particular, the global hurricane/cyclone forecasting system.

The GFS (Global Forecast System) is developed and operated by the NWS (U.S. National Weather Service). It is a mathematical model of the weather that is run on one of the world's most powerful computer systems. All mathematical models running on computer systems consist of a bunch of mathematical algorithms that produce a result. Human beings write these models, and human beings compare the predictions of the model with observations of what actually happens, and then they tweak the model. This process repeats for years and years and years.

The NWS technical leadership justifies its existence by considering that their budget reduces cost (financial and personal) to the people who pay the taxes that provide their budget. This is a core value of these human beings that are directing how this software is developed and run. While the U.S. has global interests, the clear priority of the NWS is to help people and businesses that are most impacted by weather. People in Southern California are not negatively impacted by weather. Therefore, the NWS forecasts are quite poor for Southern California: the are generally pessimistic (the weather can't possibly STAY beautiful all the time!). The NWS is most concerned about weather between the Rocky Mountains and the Great Lakes, because this is where large corporate farms are greatly impacted by weather, and where tornados and thunderstorms occur that lead to significant property damage, injury, and loss of life. It is also where the most brutal winter storms occur, also leading to widespread risk to people, property, and businesses.

We went through the NWS "quality assurance" process, and the NWS specifically tunes the models to correlate very well with weather in that specific part of the planet -- the Great Plains of the USA -- and they are very good there. But the further one gets from Omaha Nebraska (41N, 95W), the worse the correlation (more or less -- some areas are also modeled very well, such as where North Atlantic Hurricanes begin).

In the datasets we reviewed, the weather forecast was almost exactly opposite from observation on the west coast of Australia.

So I am not surprised that the GFS forecast was less accurate than the forecast by the IFS (Integrated Forecast System) by the ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts).

The huge advantage to the GFS is that *all* its data is in the public domain, whereas for some bizarre reason IFS data is quite restricted. Therefore, if you are a random member of the public and getting weather from a "service" and not from the source, you are much, much more likely to get GFS weather.

Color me skeptical. The General Circulation Models that underlie weather forecasts (and climate change forecasts) divide the atmosphere and land/ocean surface into grid cells (climate models often include an ocean model). Mass and energy are conserved and transferred from one cell to adjacent cells using fluid dynamic equations that are not solved numerically, but using finite difference methods. The models need a set of initial conditions to start with. For weather, the initial conditions are set by observations (T, P, wind speed and direction) coupled with the output of the previous run of the model. It is not at all clear to me how such a model could be tuned produce better results for a particular area. The atmosphere is all connected, and what happens on one side of the globe will affect the other side before long. So if you aren't getting the weather right in one place, you'll soon get it wrong in every place.

[Bob Perry]

Color me sleepy.

[monsoon]

Color me sleepy.

Don't forget to feed the dogs.

[Yard Dog]

The irony is that those of you who have actually managed to sail downwind and visited my island have likely required my services at some stage and had to pay my charges. I charge amerikans more so I quite like them as clients.

I think the irony is that the Australians I have dealt with are among the most diligent and honest people I have had the honor to meet, and pretty fair sailors, too. There are always exceptions.

In the unlikely event you ever make it to Annapolis, you will be treated with respect and offered hospitality that will leave you smiling. In the more unlikely event you require my services (God help you), I will charge you what I charge everyone and I won't denigrate your country (or myself) with the invoice.

[Bob Perry]

That was beautiful Yard Dog. Here here! Hear, Hear! ( not sure which one it is.)

[b6sfull]

I'd diagnose a sever case of hemroids. That would account for his anger. But it wouldn't account for his limited vocabulary.
I'm really confused as to how we got to be "racist fuckwits". in this thread.

Could it be said that SAC is all Preparation and no "H" ?

[Paps]

My, this thread has suddenly grown legs!

[quote name='Yard Dog' timestamp='1363279690' post='4077739']
[quote name='staff-a-car' timestamp='1363138693' post='4075720']
The irony is that those of you who have actually managed to sail downwind and visited my island have likely required my services at some stage and had to pay my charges. I charge amerikans more so I quite like them as clients.
[/quote]
I think the irony is that the Australians I have dealt with are among the most diligent and honest people I have had the honor to meet, and pretty fair sailors, too. There are always exceptions.

In the unlikely event you ever make it to Annapolis, you will be treated with respect and offered hospitality that will leave you smiling. In the more unlikely event you require my services (God help you), I will charge you what I charge everyone and I won't denigrate your country (or myself) with the invoice.
[/quote]

Just because Staff o cockus lives down wind of Hawaii and on an Island doesn't mean anyone has proven he is one of ours. Circumstantial evidence at best.


[quote name='Weyalan' timestamp='1363124615' post='4075428']
Caveat: I am not an experienced offshore sailor (nor do I profess to be). I've got some offshore miles, but not such as would hold a candle to a lot of you guys.

I will say, though, that fear is a funny thing. Some people are (largely) immune, some people are rendered powerless & paralysed by fear. And (unlike sea-sickness) there isn't a pill that you can pop to allow you to function well when shitting-your-pants scared... you either can or you can't. It is easy to "armchair quarterback", but unless you have been in a situation where you have been in imminent serious danger and are so scared that your hands are shaking, you are sweating and seriously reconsidering your atheist beliefs, it is difficult to put yourself in somebody elses shoes. I've been there a couple of times and, fortunately, have functioned well enough (and been lucky enough) to be here to tell the tale... but I have seen folks who have ceased to be able to think clearly and rationally, or indeed, who have taken to their bunk, in the fetal position.

My point is that the crew of Windigo made some poor or at least questionable planning decisions (probably as a resuly of inexperience, but then again, who hasn't?) and then probably made some more poor decisions when scared. I wonder whether everyone here would have done better in the same spot... I hope and believe I would have, but I'm entirely confident of that.
[/quote]

Weylan I know you are trying to be nice but yes there is a prophylactic. When the shit hits the fan and you are feeling that need to assume the fetal position there is the "Grubich" maneuver.

Bang up a huge line of your favored accelerator on the nav table and head up on deck in your daughters lingerie, screaming..... "I taught you everyfing I fucking know and still .........................you know fuckin nuffink"

Google Anaconda ll, I do not lie.

[quote name='Ishmael' timestamp='1363213144' post='4076855']
[quote name='Hobie Dog' timestamp='1363205584' post='4076691']
[quote name='Ishmael' timestamp='1362686939' post='4070136']
[quote name='ozzie' timestamp='1362685224' post='4070094']
Not exactly in good nick...

https://www.facebook.com/PolAirNSWPF
<p>
<p>
[/quote]

That will buff right out.


[/quote]
It sure will!

Personally I like Beneteau’s but for all of you that trash them like they are the Bayliner of the sailing world, it is interesting that she stayed afloat at sea unattended for 4 months and even landed on the beach in one piece!
[/quote]

Imagine how much better shape it would be in if they had let out all their anchor rode before bugging out.
[/quote]

Ish, I had never considered that. The last thing you would consider abandoning ship is drop the anchor but it makes perfect sense. You should have beed a priest.

[Paps]

Ish, I had never considered that. The last thing you would consider abandoning ship is drop the anchor but it makes perfect sense. You should have beed a priest really, or minister or molester. Its just another form of parking, where ever it hooks up you can claim "that was the plan" no salvage rights involved.


Your honour, the conditions we found our selves in were to say the least "atrocious". Therefore we chose to "Ocean Anchor" the vessel and move into more comfortable "digs" on the French freighter whose Chef we had seen on TV. The wine list was superb.

Having "ocean anchored" the vessel with 300' of tackle we were confident she would make shore comfortably and settled in to dinner which was extremely wonderful .

After several days lounging on le ship we arrived in Australia, then the hard work commenced. Where would our beloved home containing all our belongings "self anchor" along a 2000 mile coast line after threading a barrier reef. Stress incomparable.

Schock horreur le boat made for the land many undreds of miles from us.

Yes I know I have given them French accents, it just seems to fit. Besides a kiwi acksent is harder to type. Try it.

So now we are on solid soil and waiting for le yacht to "self anchor" some where on the East coast, potentially 3 or so thousand miles, if its even afloat. We have obviously lost interest until a news crew calls to say "hallo " Home has been spotted.

We are flown in by said news crew to the scene and lament the fact that the unscrupulous natives have looted "our home". At this point you can make your own assumptions, I have.

That said it is indeed challenging out there, thats the point. Or "Le point". Much as I take the piss out of our "french" cousins, I respect their "Staunch" approach but the "house keeping" not so much. As a 12 yr old I found le fabulous French boats very smelly.

But admire them i did.

[sailglobal]

you drinkin' Coopers again Paps?

[Bob Perry]

Global:
I think he's bathing in it.

Steady as she goes Paps.
Your posts were very funny. I liked the Grubich manouver.

[Joli]

Sad to read about this but honestly some people just aren't very good sailors. Maybe they would have been better off buying a camper and visiting the national parks? I'm always surprised to meet people that have sailed their entire life but struggle with simple maneuvers, or the guy that races for 25 years but consistently finishes last race after race. Anyway, no one wins in these situations; the sailor, the rescuers or the industry.

[Diarmuid]

Weylan I know you are trying to be nice but yes there is a prophylactic. When the shit hits the fan and you are feeling that need to assume the fetal position there is the "Grubich" maneuver.

Bang up a huge line of your favored accelerator on the nav table and head up on deck in your daughters lingerie, screaming..... "I taught you everyfing I fucking know and still .........................you know fuckin nuffink"

Ah, the Tony Montana school of Augmented Courage.



Follow-up questions:

1) Was the daughter on board?
2) If so, why did she bring lingerie on a race boat?
3) If not, why did he have it with? And how did he look? Approximately.

[Paps]

Well yes I do vaguely remember typing those posts.

Josko Grubic was a unit. He built Anaconda ll for the round the world race in '75?. At one point during said race in the southern ocean to stop the crew complaining about the cold he turned up on deck wearing his daughters flimsy night gown. I cant recall if she was also on board.

On a previous boat, Adria I think, he was having trouble getting the attention of the guy at the mast. Hi finally gave up screaming at him from the cockpit and lobbed a winch handle between his shoulder blades. I kid you not.

[floating dutchman]

Paps: just for you.



With the photo of the boat on the beach, Is the keel still attached? Did the boat happen to stay upright because no mast?

[floating dutchman]

Staff, you posted 10 minuets after me, I'm not exactly sure what part of my post was about worshiping Bob's arse But if you even have a vague interest in the topic, you could have answered my question.
Or do you not have a fucken clue?

[floating dutchman]

When I boarded at Nelson College they taught us reading comprehension. Things have obviously changed since then.

Perhaps you could do me the courtesy of letting me know what post you told the world if the keel was still attached or not.

Oh and buy the way I never went to Nelson College. LPHS.

['No.6]

You I do have a good line on superiority though, pity it doesn't carry over into real life.

Fixed that for you. No need to thank me.

[Paps]

See I told you he wasn't one of ours, whew that was close.

[Paps]

I was a boarder. They generally live somewhere else. Might have been Adelaide!!

Nah more likely Invercargill, def a sheep shagger.

[Yard Dog]

See I told you he wasn't one of ours, whew that was close.

We all know why you don't want to claim him.

He is so jazzed by not telling where he is from. Teasing and not telling is an art form of pre-teen girls.

And with that I have completely lost interest.

[olaf hart]

I was a boarder. They generally live somewhere else. Might have been Adelaide!!

Why would anyone board in Enzed if they lived in Oz?

And why would anyone board on the South Island if they lived on the North Island?

Why would a Kiwi pretend to be an Australian?

Keep tuned for the answer to these and many other questions.

[floating dutchman]

Anyone want to guess if the keel is buried in the sand or fallen off?

Looks like to me in that pick that it could not have a keel.

[mad]

Can't be too long before this sock gets bounced just like the last one.

[Bob Perry]

Mad:
Makes one wonder what it takes to become an angry, bitter little man.