57 replies to this topic

[DryArmour]

The Hurricane Season ends officially on November 30th but that is just about the time Hurricane Bopha is forecast to become a Super Typhoon. That last part should clue you in to the fact that this system is in the Western Pacific and will likely be limited to being a fish storm over the next five days. After that the folks on Legazpi, Philippines should probably have everything as squared away as possible and those who are cruising the area may want to head south to Davao City for this one. More later if it is looking super ugly.

[Port Tack Approach]

read your thread title, and said out loud. Oh no. Not this shit again. Thankfully this is a world away from me.

Mark, Thank you so much for your analysis of Sandy and all the other work you do here.Please keep it coming

[DryArmour]

You are quite welcome. Forecasting major systems is hands down my favorite work related thing to do and if I can help folks on here save life or just some property then it is worth the time and effort I put into it.. Many thanks to all of you who have ponied up for DryUV technical apparel in appreciation for weather or just because we had a great deal going (Like we do right now). See blurb in my signature line...You can get exclusive offers through our mailing list as well. We don't bury you with tons of mail. Just the occasional special offer.

[Kenny Dumas]

Hey Mark, My sister lives in Palau, on the east side in Melekeok. They don't get hit very often, but this one looks like it may. Please keep an eye on it. Tx.

[Tranquilo]

I always thought November 30 was the end of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season. Something new going on here?

[Tranquilo]

Nevermind, looked it up, May to November.

[DryArmour]

Hey Mark, My sister lives in Palau, on the east side in Melekeok. They don't get hit very often, but this one looks like it may. Please keep an eye on it. Tx.

Kenny:

I'll try to monitor as best possible. "Fringe" systems (Post typical seasonal dates) are difficult as transitional jet streams can make it more difficult to figure out where they are going and how wicked they may be...

[DryArmour]

Hey Mark, My sister lives in Palau, on the east side in Melekeok. They don't get hit very often, but this one looks like it may. Please keep an eye on it. Tx.

Kenny:

I'll try to monitor as best possible. "Fringe" systems (Post typical seasonal dates) are difficult as transitional jet streams can make it more difficult to figure out where they are going and how wicked they may be...

What was forecast to become a major hurricane yesterday has proved the almanac right and the forecast models wrong. It is too far south and has little Coriolis effect available to spin it and it looks like it will remain south for a period of time that is more likely to see it dissipate than spin up into something to be worried much about. More later if things charge...

[Kenny Dumas]

Thanks Mark, I understand that the general guideline is that Coriolis is insufficient to rotate storms below 5 degrees, with Palau at 7 degreees N, they rarely get hit. I'm curious about two things:
1. The trade winds do dip south in the winter (they call them Christmas winds in Palau) does this make them more likely to get hit by a late season storm since a moving trough is more likely to increase than a stationary one?
2. Bopha isn't likely to rotate since it's too south. Is Palau more likely to get hit by a storm that rotates at 10 or so degrees and then dips south to smack them? So when considering a storm threat one should really keep an eye on depressions to the north vs south at these intermediate latitudes? And while we're at it, once a storm starts rotation, if it dips south and loses coriolis forces, how long does it take to slow rotation? Or, what's the rough rule of thumb for the time constant of the angular momentum on this scale?

[DryArmour]

Thanks Mark, I understand that the general guideline is that Coriolis is insufficient to rotate storms below 5 degrees, with Palau at 7 degreees N, they rarely get hit. I'm curious about two things:
1. The trade winds do dip south in the winter (they call them Christmas winds in Palau) does this make them more likely to get hit by a late season storm since a moving trough is more likely to increase than a stationary one?
2. Bopha isn't likely to rotate since it's too south. Is Palau more likely to get hit by a storm that rotates at 10 or so degrees and then dips south to smack them? So when considering a storm threat one should really keep an eye on depressions to the north vs south at these intermediate latitudes? And while we're at it, once a storm starts rotation, if it dips south and loses coriolis forces, how long does it take to slow rotation? Or, what's the rough rule of thumb for the time constant of the angular momentum on this scale?

Kenny- To Answer #1, it depends on the latitude of any systems to the North in the Northern Hemisphere. When a trough erodes the high pressure dome that is normally responsible for the motion of a hurricane it allows the storm to turn more to the north if it is a traditional West moving system on the southern edge of the high pressure in the SW quadrant.

#2-3 There is a very small chance of a system maintaining a high level of intensity and dropping below about 8 degrees for more than a few days. But here is an excellent exerpt from one of my favorite professors at my Alma Mater UofH...

If Coriolis force drives weather systems in one direction in the northern hemisphere and another in the southern does this mean that hurricanes and other weather systems cannot cross the Equator?
Worried about hurricanes crossing the equator ? The Coriolis force is what we call an apparent force - it handles the problem that the earth is spinning and thus a point on the globe is always changing direction or always accelerating. You may also view Coriolis as a consequence of the conservation of angular momentum. At the equator you have a great deal as you are rotating about 25,000 miles in a day while someone on the poles is not moving anywhere in the same period. From your and my perspective air, rockets, and aircraft, are all deflected to the right in the northern hemisphere and to the left in the southern. (Yes, they correct for Coriolis when they shoot artillery shells!) The Coriolis "force" is a maximum at the poles and zero at the equator.
Observations show that no hurricanes form within 5 degrees latitude of the equator. People argue that the Coriolis force is too weak there to get air to rotate around a low pressure rather than flow from high to low pressure, which it does initially. If you can't get the air to rotate you can't get a storm. This is a reason why genesis does not occur at low latitudes but it does not explain why a developed hurricane does not cross the equator..
Could a hurricane cross ? Yes, because a well developed storm has plenty of spin that would dominate the weak Coriolis force near there. If it crossed the Coriolis force would be working against the initial direction of the spin, but it would be dominated by what we call the relative vorticity of the storm. Have we seen this happen? Hurricanes can move south and get close to the equator but I cannot find an example of one crossing in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific. In the Indian Ocean some come closer to pulling off this trick. Why don't they cross ? The variation in Coriolis with latitude - called the Beta effect - actually will move a hurricane to the NW in the northern hemisphere even if there is no large scale wind pushing the storm along ! So, Coriolis not only seems to be a necessary ingredient to make a storm, but it may also pull them away from the equator making the crossing event a tough one to pull off.
Gary Barnes, Professor of Meteorology
Department of Meteorology
University of Hawaii, Honolulu HI 96822

[DryArmour]

While we are at it....Now it looks like Bopha might actually pull itself together and become a major hurricane. So much for the accuracy of late season hurricane forecast programs...More flip flops than a presidential candidate in November...

[DryArmour]

Yup. Bopha is back...

[Kenny Dumas]

Yikes, forecasts now are for Cat 3 or even 4 and right over Palau. Sister's place is pretty sound and ~15 feet above normal high tide, but lots of friends don't have much elevation at all. Low tide is ~4 am Monday and storm surge shouldn't be too bad on such a small island, but the reef and jetty will probably get hammered pretty bad. Is there a general rule on timing & duration of storm surge vs the center of the storm? The undersea topography looks favorable, with a very deep trench offshore, so surge should be minimized, I think.

[George Hackett]

yes, this is going to be a big one. actually, typhoon season will last well into January. one interesting typhoon back in 1965 was Typhoon Dading hitting us Christmas morning, went into the China Sea then U-Turned and hit us on the return two days later.

[DryArmour]

Bopha has ramped to a Category 4 Typhoon. Serious business for those in the path. The larger population in Palau will be in the NE Quadrant of Bopha. The deep water immediately offshore does limit the amount of sea surface that will pile up in advance of the system, but the are lots of coves and estuaries that are likely to look a lot different 48 hours from now. If you have family or friends on the island make contact with them now as conditions will deteriorate later today and up until landfall late Sunday night/ Monday morning.

[Kenny Dumas]

Significant wave height 42 feet. Melekeok grade school where Sis teaches is 5 ft. She said the plan was to build a new school soon. Might be sooner than planned. Government is shutting down the power grid at midnight Sunday to save transformers. Latest forecasts show the eye passing to the south of Peleliu so at least they won't get hit with that hopefully, but I imagine the wave damage will be worse with the more organized seas in the northern quadrants. I can't find the barometric pressure anywhere so maybe it hasn't been measured? It would be nice to know so she can have some idea of when it's passing.

[DryArmour]

Best way to gauge that is with barometric pressure trends and wind direction.

[DryArmour]

Just did a TDR track analysis. Please make sure everyone on the island understands that this one is for real. If the eye passes over them or even close to them they are in serious trouble. Unless they have a concrete, steel reinforced structure it is unlikely that it will remain standing if the system maintains its current intensity.

[DryArmour]

Bopha continues to dazzle as it make sits way west @ 17mph. Forecast is for the storm to slowly wind down on approach to the Philippines. Still going to bring a pounding to the east shores of the islands it lands on...Thoughts with all of those affected.

[George Hackett]

it is still possible for Bopha (Paul locally) to head out into the china sea after cutting a path through the Visyas and then making a turn for a north easterly track back to northern luzon.

[DryArmour]

it is still possible for Bopha (Paul locally) to head out into the china sea after cutting a path through the Visyas and then making a turn for a north easterly track back to northern luzon.

Possible? Yes.

[DryArmour]

Very sad for the Philippines right now. Bopha has morphed into an unimaginable force. A category 5 Super Typhoon. Sustained winds are 160 mph with gusts approaching 200mph. Absolute destruction for anyone in the path and less than 75 miles from the center. Near perfect symmetry and a forward speed of 18 to the WNW. By 6AM Tuesday morning catastrophic damage and near certain large losses of life will occur. If you have friends or relatives near the path of the storm it is absolutely critical that they get out of the way as best possible over the next four hours if they can or evacuate to a steel reinforced concrete structure well away from the coastline. They need food, water, and any medicine they take for at least 4-8 weeks maybe longer.

[Maxx Baqustae]

Sheeit! Cat 5? Then Cat 4 when it hits land mass? One question - where the coverage anywhere? I haven't seen anything on the Weather channel or regular new outlets.

Seems odd.

[Bump-n-Grind]

Sheeit! Cat 5? Then Cat 4 when it hits land mass? One question - where the coverage anywhere? I haven't seen anything on the Weather channel or regular new outlets.

Seems odd.

They must not have any Home Depots in the impact zone.

[DryArmour]

Sheeit! Cat 5? Then Cat 4 when it hits land mass? One question - where the coverage anywhere? I haven't seen anything on the Weather channel or regular new outlets.

Seems odd.

They must not have any Home Depots in the impact zone.

Reminds me of the Hurricane Warning by THE ONION a few years ago. If it doesn't sell ads they don't pay a lot of attention to it. Just looking at the main impact area there are a fair amount of homes well below the surge height. Am worried about all in the central and NW side of the archipelago. This one is serious.

The ONION HURRICANE COVERAGE (Please excuse the humor as this will be a tough time for many but it points out how absurd forecasting is here in the states).

http://www.theonion.com/video/hurricane-bound-for-texas-slowed-by-large-land-mas,14262/

[DryArmour]

The eye of Super Typhoon Bopha is coming ashore at this time in the Southeastern section of the Philippines. The significant wave height was just measured at 52 feet. Add on 22-35 feel of storm surge and a lot of the coastal structures will be 50 feet underwater. Sustained winds of 165 mph with gusts approaching 200 make this a ferocious storm. A significant number of people will likely perish . Say a prayer tonight at the dinner table for whatever weather you are having right now it is likely significantly better than at ground zero on the Archipelago.

[By the lee]

Any idea what storm surge would be around 13deg N?

[DryArmour]

That is a fair ways North. Let me have a quick look though. One of the problems is a lack of reporting stations and no Hurricane Hunter data. BRB with a guess though. Eastern Shore?

It is a complicated shoreline. Can you give me the lat/lon or a city?

[By the lee]

Can you give me the lat/lon or a city?

Can't raise the guy now.

Somewhere near the bottom of that lower peninsula on the big Isl. Says they're on a little Isl. w/9 meter height, next to a city on a larger Isl.

Wow. That's helpful, eh?

[DA-WOODY]

I'v called TV stations in DAGO to let them know do Shizzle on a story of human Interest

Met with Ummmmmm Ahhhhh Errrrrrrrrrr .................................ok thanks good buy

guess no Home Depo no nada

[DryArmour]

Can you give me the lat/lon or a city?

Can't raise the guy now.

Somewhere near the bottom of that lower peninsula on the big Isl. Says they're on a little Isl. w/9 meter height, next to a city on a larger Isl.

Wow. That's helpful, eh?

I will guess and say Pujada Island but that is no where near 13 degrees north. Things on Pujada will be bad. 9 meters of elevation might do it.

[By the lee]

Cebu. They're on an Isl. near Cebu.

[DryArmour]

That is a long island. If they are on the southern end there could be significant issues. North end not so much..

[By the lee]

Cebu is an Isl.? My bad, they're near Cebu City.

Mactan Isl.

[George Hackett]

while mindanao is being battered, we are having sunny skies and no wind here in manila. that will change though. interesting that weather underground is modeling almost the same predicitons i came up with. while we up norht here may not get the wind punch. we should be looking at some major flooding.

[DryArmour]

Bopha lived up to its expectations. Only 41 people killed is a miracle. More on the story... http://www.heavy.com...in-philippines/

[Maxx Baqustae]

Bopha lived up to its expectations. Only 41 people killed is a miracle. More on the story... http://www.heavy.com...in-philippines/

Absolutely amazing. I understand that "only 41people died" but there is nothing at all in mainstream in north america. A small mention ( and I mean small) on the Canadian Weather Channel. All the regular news outlets - zero!

Wow.

[DryArmour]

Bopha lived up to its expectations. Only 41 people killed is a miracle. More on the story... http://www.heavy.com...in-philippines/

Absolutely amazing. I understand that "only 41people died" but there is nothing at all in mainstream in north america. A small mention ( and I mean small) on the Canadian Weather Channel. All the regular news outlets - zero!

Wow.

Disgraceful!

[DA-WOODY]

Bopha lived up to its expectations. Only 41 people killed is a miracle. More on the story... http://www.heavy.com...in-philippines/

Absolutely amazing. I understand that "only 41people died" but there is nothing at all in mainstream in north america. A small mention ( and I mean small) on the Canadian Weather Channel. All the regular news outlets - zero!

Wow.

Disgraceful!

Mark i emailed your posts to local News stations in DAGO

most I see is a ticker tape running below the news stating 160mph winds - Nothing of surf on surge

[Punani Jackson]

Bopha lived up to its expectations. Only 41 people killed is a miracle. More on the story... http://www.heavy.com...in-philippines/

Absolutely amazing. I understand that "only 41people died" but there is nothing at all in mainstream in north america. A small mention ( and I mean small) on the Canadian Weather Channel. All the regular news outlets - zero!

Wow.

Disgraceful!

And we wonder why the rest of the world hates us?

[Maxx Baqustae]

Bopha lived up to its expectations. Only 41 people killed is a miracle. More on the story... http://www.heavy.com...in-philippines/

Absolutely amazing. I understand that "only 41people died" but there is nothing at all in mainstream in north america. A small mention ( and I mean small) on the Canadian Weather Channel. All the regular news outlets - zero!

Wow.

Disgraceful!

And we wonder why the rest of the world hates us?

Finally it reaches us:

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Death+toll+from+Typhoon+Bopha+tops+Philippines/7648742/story.html

It's 0015 on the west coast and that article was around 2345. I heard it's 241 dead and climbing. It took 12+ hours to hear about this??? Phuck me.

Thanks Mark for bringing it to our attention a week ago. I saw "a" developing storm in the western Pacific about that time but I didn't think about it much.

You do a service to all of us mate.

[DryArmour]

The death toll continues to climb. Very sad indeed that there is so little awareness for disasters not on our home shores. For those of you in the path or who had family in the path and inquired about the severity of the storm I hope the information provided was helpful.

[GybeSet®]

make sure you get you're sig up a few more times whilst ppl are dying
Opportunistic Pimp

[DryArmour]

make sure you get you're sig up a few more times whilst ppl are dying
Opportunistic Pimp

Go take your meds and then try and muster your massive cerebral content and come to the realization that I am here helping people try and avoid material and personal damage. So far as I can recall NOTHING, and I mean NOTHING you have ever posted here has assisted anyone in saving life and property. Go crawl back under your disgusting moldy rock and keep your disturbed sense of reality to yourself.

Should you have a few examples of postings you have made that remotely assist this community in something positive, post away. I am pretty sure all we will see is a white board. But go ahead. Show us.

[MR.CLEAN]

Hey c'mon now Mark; Old gybes helped define what a sportboat is

Thanks for the forecast on Botha.

[ProaSailor]

Bopha lived up to its expectations. Only 41 people killed is a miracle. More on the story... http://www.heavy.com...in-philippines/

NEW BATAAN, Philippines — A powerful typhoon that washed away emergency shelters, a military camp and possibly entire families in the southern Philippines has killed almost 350 people with nearly 400 missing, authorites said Thursday.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/05/typhoon-bopha-philippines_n_2241984.html

[couchsurfer]

Hey c'mon now Mark; Old gybes helped define what a sportboat is

Thanks for the forecast on Botha.

...the jury's still out on that one

[Hike, Bitches!]

George Hackett,
Good Luck in Manila..You may have dodged two bullets by the same storm! Unfortunately, it looks like the storm is trying to re-intensify and loop around the NW Philippines, Luzon area, now.

[Maxx Baqustae]

Jeebus - not as strong but!

http://www.washingto...e29c5_blog.html

[yowie]

Reports of over five hundred dead on the first pass.
I could not see a mention in Brisbane's paper today.

http://www.heraldsun...w-1226532246690

[DryArmour]

Bopha continues to astonish.

[stranded]

Certainly is Bopha the Terrible .......................


Updated: Sat, 08 Dec 2012 15:08:33 GMT | By Agence France-Presse
Philippines braces for return of killer typhoon
A powerful typhoon that has killed hundreds of people and wreaked devastation in the Philippines was set to smash into the country again Sunday, forecasters warned.
[11:59:54 AM] lasse: Typhoon Bopha had looked to be heading away after destroying whole communities in the south, but the official weather agency said Saturday it had unexpectedly turned and would make landfall again, this time in the north.

The agency urged people to prepare for fierce winds of up to 160 kilometres (about 100 miles) an hour and heavy rains when the storm slams into the northern tip of the main island of Luzon in the early hours.

The surprise development piles more pressure on a country that has called for international aid for the south, where floods and landslides sparked by Bopha have flattened whole villages and left tens of thousands of people homeless.

A United Nations aid assessment team flew to the southern island of Mindanao, which bore the brunt of the devastation, on Saturday and witnessed "100 percent destruction", said Imogen Wall, spokeswoman for the UN office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs.

"This is a very poor area where everyone is dependent on agriculture. If people can't earn money from crops they won't be able to put food on the table for their families," she told AFP by telephone.

"They'll need a lot of help in the coming months. This is going to take a long time."

Bopha, the strongest typhoon to hit the disaster-prone Philippines this year, barrelled into Mindanao from the Pacific Ocean with gusts of up to 210 kilometres an hour on Tuesday.

At least 548 people have so far been confirmed dead and about 500 others are missing. Around 212,000 others have been left homeless, according to the civil defence office.

In the isolated hamlet of Marapat on Saturday, about 4,000 survivors had only coconuts to eat, as no substantial aid was yet to reach them, said nursing mother Virginia Dodres.

All the houses had been carried off by floods, and survivors were sleeping 80 to a room on the bare concrete floor of the local school.

They share its two toilets and are doing their washing and bathing at a nearby spring, which is also their only source of water.

Dodres, 38, said church workers with two big pots of porridge arrived Saturday, the first and only relief aid yet to the hamlet, which is near the devastated town of New Bataan. The food was gobbled up within minutes.

Officials said Mindanao's east coast and the banana plantations and illegal gold mines around New Bataan accounted for all but 42 of the known deaths from the typhoon.

Twenty-six corpses were put into donated white wooden coffins and laid on a muddy open space where the New Bataan public market used to stand. A few relatives, and flies attended to them.

Jing Maniqued, an unmarried 37-year-old who previously worked as a maid abroad, did not know where to bury her two sisters since the cemetery had itself been covered by debris. Her parents and a mother are still missing.

"There's nothing left for us here. We will probably leave," she told AFP.

Cedric Daep, a public safety specialist, said desperate survivors looted shops and warehouses in Cateel, one of three hard-hit towns on the Mindanao coast in the early aftermath of Bopha's landfall there.

"The food aid took so long to arrive that the locals broke into whatever building (was) left standing in search of something to eat," said Daep, who was sent to the south to help organise the disaster response.

Pope Benedict XVI issued a call for "brotherly solidarity" and said he was praying for "the victims, their families and the many homeless" in Asia's largest Catholic outpost, where 80 percent are followers of the religion.


Sending prayers ..... What about sending Caritas ?


It would seem that the greatest ability the Catholic Hierarchy has is to look after themselves .....................

Genuine Charity, anyone ?

[F-18 5150]

Thanks Mark
Here on Palawan we had some flooding in the south but made out good here in the north. Our forcasts here didn't even warn of the storm till Monday and it hit tuesday night. Many here were aware of the storm thanks to you posting and sharing info with me and I shared with many here. Thanks to prep we lost no boats and were prepared for the worst.
as of now latest reports are over 600 dead.
I would have posted in this post as the storm was here but we lost internet for a couple days and this site takes a lot of bandwith to access here.
Rich

[Hike, Bitches!]

Rich, glad you made it thru OK..I feel your pain with Sandy brushing past us weeks ago. Sorry about those that didn't make it.

[stranded]

now, officially, more than 600 dead, and more to come


and people are starving

being the tropics, with limited access to safe drinking water, with all the bodies and animal carcasses littered everywhere, disease is next

and the pope calls for solidarity

[yowie]

No loos, he's trying to minimise diahorrea

[stranded]

yeah, by substituting with verbal diahorrea

and NO help, for a country with one of the largest catholic congregations

my bullshit detecting meter has melted







Of course, George Hackett will have all the answers ................ he seems to have gone missing into a SYDNEY ped thread

[stranded]

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 » 08:15pm
Rescuers are losing hope of finding those missing after a typhoon struck the Philippines, killing 714.
Rescuers are losing hope of finding nearly 900 people missing after a typhoon struck the southern Philippines last week, killing 714 people.
Typhoon Bopha, the strongest cyclone to hit the Philippines this year, slammed into the southern region of Mindanao on December 4, triggering widespread floods and landslides that wiped out entire villages.
Rescuers have not found survivors for the past three days, and officials said on Tuesday they feared they would discover only bodies one week after the typhoon.
'We can no longer say that we can recover many survivors,' said Major General Ariel Bernardo, an army division commander overseeing the emergency operations. 'What we may recover are bodies.'
'There is little chance' of finding more survivors, he said.
The Office of Civil Defence said 890 people were still reported missing from the disaster while 714 were confirmed killed in the floods and landslides. More than 1900 were injured and 110 rescued.
More than 5.4 million people were affected by the typhoon, including 116,404 residents staying in cramped evacuation centres.
On Monday, the United Nations appealed for $US65 million ($A62.25 million) in emergency aid to provide food, water and emergency shelter to the victims.