We now know the two boats agreed on the facts. We can safely guess that they both thought those facts put them in the right, and that a 'rules judgement call' needed to be made. So, that means #1 was not the scenario because in it S is clearly wrong (windward overlapped boat not keeping clear).
I agree we could simply determine between #2 & #3 by looking at the point of impact - on the quarter = #2 and on the transom = #3. My strong guess from the video is #3 but agree it's not absolutely certain.
#2 & #3 both depend on a rule 15 judgement.
With #2 the question would be did F give S room to keep clear after it re-established the overlap? The consensus here on this is no, and I agree. In this scenario, S could not turn up (because it would sweep their transom into F's bow) and they could not turn down (because they would then be hit broadside), so they were not given room.
With #3 (my preferred scenario) the question would be did S give F room to keep clear after it went clear ahead and broke the overlap? We have not really discussed this yet. My sense would be yes, because F could turn to windward immediately and be clear (at anytime).
>>when the protest committee asked each witness 'What did you do to avoid contact?'<<















