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#801 Point Break

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 06:43 PM

Supposed to hit 80 here at the beach today. Having some friends over and plan on a nice tri tip on the BBQ and an evening having a few bottles of wine at the outdoor kitchen. Should be in the mid 70's until well after dark.

 

B)



#802 bmiller

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 09:54 PM

Sitting at the top of Copper right now, snowing hard, blowing hard, still cold as hell.........



#803 Point Break

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 10:20 PM

Sitting at the top of Copper right now, snowing hard, blowing hard, still cold as hell.........

Skiing okay?



#804 A_guy_in_the_Chesapeake

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 10:31 PM

Supposed to hit 80 here at the beach today. Having some friends over and plan on a nice tri tip on the BBQ and an evening having a few bottles of wine at the outdoor kitchen. Should be in the mid 70's until well after dark.

 

B)

 

Enjoy that - it was 65F in the mountains of Northern Virginia today - and calling for snow tomorrow night.... FARK!!! 



#805 bmiller

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Posted 16 March 2014 - 02:30 AM

Sitting at the top of Copper right now, snowing hard, blowing hard, still cold as hell.........

Skiing okay?

Oh yes!



#806 Tax Man

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 02:13 PM

IT IS FUCKING SNOWING AGAIN.  WINTER PLEASE GO FUCK YOURSELF, THIS STOPPED BEING FUNNY A MONTH AGO.



#807 hard aground

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 02:55 PM

IT IS FUCKING SNOWING AGAIN.  WINTER PLEASE GO FUCK YOURSELF, THIS STOPPED BEING FUNNY A MONTH AGO.

 

A month ago?  This stopped being funny in November.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1976. 



#808 DA-WOODY

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 05:16 PM

There was (and still is) room for you guys to come out and Bake in the  Warm Sunshine:

 

at the Beach or Go Sailing or Rent a Harley for a week

 

Don't forget your Sunblock

 

Do forger your Fowllies  



#809 DRIFTW00D

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 05:36 PM


IT IS FUCKING SNOWING AGAIN. 


Rob knows what to do with snow.....

#810 Shibby

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:09 PM

we only got 3" is it wrong if I don't shovel it off the sidewalks???



#811 JBSF

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 06:14 PM

Went sailing on a Volvo 60 today.  It was the old NewsCorp from the 2001/02 VOR.  The weather was terrible - about 85F and 10kts.

 

Racing OD Fri and Sat - wx conditions are expected to be the same.  Damn its already getting hot.  I miss winter time.



#812 billy backstay

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 07:20 PM

we only got 3" is it wrong if I don't shovel it off the sidewalks???

 

I never shovel.  Hate the stuff!!  supposed to be warm for a couple days then back to 20's and 30's.



#813 USA190520

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 07:48 PM

Went sailing on a Volvo 60 today.  It was the old NewsCorp from the 2001/02 VOR.  The weather was terrible - about 85F and 10kts.
 
Racing OD Fri and Sat - wx conditions are expected to be the same.  Damn its already getting hot.  I miss winter time.


May your sensitive inner bicep find the searing hot door frame of your car

#814 barleymalt

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 08:16 PM

Holy Shit!. I can see part of my lawn again!.  We'll be sailing again in no...err  a few weeks.



#815 Shibby

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 08:24 PM

Wore tennis (not boots) shoes today for the first time in 5 months.  

 

omfg for the dog shit on the lawn.  I was trying really hard to keep after it but it looks like I forgot and I trained her to shit on the driveway but 25 gallons of shit!



#816 billy backstay

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 08:43 PM

Ice is breaking up on the cove; Frostbite starts Sunday....



#817 bmiller

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Posted 22 March 2014 - 12:14 AM

Had to water trees on the property across the street today. Looks like elk got to some of them.



#818 DA-WOODY

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Posted 22 March 2014 - 12:36 AM

A 'Nor’Easter Bomb' Might Be Heading To The East Coast

slate.jpg 
ERIC HOLTHAUSSLATE 
MAR. 21, 2014, 1:46 PM 36,283 24
  •  

Though the calendar now says spring, atmospheric gremlins are conspiring to make winter linger a bit longer.

Thanks to a Rex Block over Alaska, the jet stream will take another deep dive from the North Pole to the eastern United States this weekend. That pattern will be locked in place throughout much of next week, plunging most of the eastern part of the country back into the deep freeze. Temperatures from Sunday to Thursday will be 10 to 25 degrees colder than long-term averages across most of the East, more fitting of mid-January than late March.

But the crown jewel of the wintery encore will be a major late-season nor’easter. Born of a combination of bitterly cold air and a core of rapidly intensifying low pressure, a big storm is increasingly likely to buzz the East Coast early next week.

The National Weather Service did not mince words in their headline of a technical discussion of the potential beast: “Nor'easter bomb indicated off the mid-Atlantic coast late Tuesday night.”

The scary-sounding descriptor “bomb”—also known as “explosive cyclogenesis”–is a technical word meteorologists use when low pressure centers deepen at a rate faster than 24 millibars in 24 hours, which happens in only the most intense storms.

The NWS continues:

The East Coast cyclone has the potential to produce late-season heavy snowfall over a wide swath of real estate from Virginia to New England; that is a generality at this point. Much remains in terms of refining the forecast state by state. Another high-impact factor will be the powerful winds generated by this sprawling, intense circulation, along with high seas, beach battery, coastal flooding, and so forth. Again, at this point, such sensible weather effects are simply attendant to the potential of such a storm.

That’s a bold forecast, especially five days before the storm arrives.

In this case, however, forecasting an extreme storm next week is becoming an increasingly easy call. Weather models have been showing the possibility of a big storm for days now and are displaying the kind of consistency meteorologists look for before going out on a limb.

In fact, one particular model, the GFS—the best long-range model produced by the United States—is forecasting the storm to strengthen at more than twice the rate necessary for a bomb, from 995 millibars Tuesday evening off the North Carolina coast to 968 millibars Wednesday morning off Long Island, just 12 hours later. That same model is forecasting the storm to peak with sustained surface winds of hurricane force over the ocean by Wednesday afternoon. At that same time, in the jet stream well above the surface, winds are expected to top 170 mph—fueling the rapid growth of the storm and increasing its “bomb”-making potential.

 

ft-140321-bomb1.png.crop.promovar-medium

Map of 00z GFS surface winds, via americanwx.com

By Wednesday morning, the storm’s sustained winds off the East Coast could peak above hurricane force.

 

The extremely strong jet stream will form a direct link between the Arctic and the East Coast, energizing the storm and turning it into a major snow producer.

 

While the National Weather Service is understandably skittish about making snowfall predictions when the storm is still five days away, thanks to the wonders of technology, we can get a sneak peak of what the totals might be.

Another model, the GGEM (created by the Canadian Meteorological Centre), has a snow forecast that would rank as one of the biggest the New York City area has ever seen—more than two feet by Wednesday.

Now, the GGEM is more than likely wrong—the New York City office of the National Weather service conservatively noted the double-barreled center the GGEM is currently showing is probably unrealistic—but barring big changes in the forecast, there’s an increasingly strong line of evidence that someone’s going to get walloped on that order somewhere along the East Coast.

 

bomb-8.jpg

Map of 00z GGEM model, via americanwx.com

Somebody’s going to get hella snow next week. It may not be New York City, as this particular model suggests, but signs are increasingly pointing to a big snowstorm somewhere on the East Coast.

 

 

The Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems at Saint Louis University has applied a pattern-recognition algorithm to a compendium of 6-hourly weather maps for the last 30+ years. The top 15 hits for next week’s storm, when averaged together,produced a snow map from Georgia to New England with a reasonable six inches or snow from roughly Washington, D.C., to NYC to Boston.

It’s important to note that the CIPS result isn’t technically a forecast: It’s an average of historical storms that are strongly correlated with the current forecast. The analog method is a pretty straightforward big-data way of tackling a tough forecast, and answers the question: "Of the historical weather maps that look the most like the current one, what happened afterwards?" Many of the storms in this CIPS map produced less than six inches of snow, a few produced much more. And one of those matches was a doozy.

As I mentioned Wednesday, one of the top analogs from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for next week’s weather remains the Superstorm of 1993, one of the biggest March blizzards of all time. According to a National Weather Service archive, that storm brought hurricane force winds and all-time low pressure records (which still stand today) to parts of the South and dropped an astounding 13 cubic miles of snow from Florida to Maine. Simply put: It was one of the most extreme late-season winter storms in U.S. history.

Here’s the Weather Channel’s coverage of the 1993 Superstorm:

 

Now, to forecast a historic storm five days in advance would be premature. All we really know right now is there will be a storm, and it’s probably going to be big.

In an earlier weather discussion, the National Weather Service cautioned that despite the strong signal the weather models are showing, the storm is still so far out in time that chaos theory dictates that small changes now could lead to big shifts in the forecast down the road. In fact, part of the atmospheric energy that is expected to become the East Coast storm down the line is still over the Gulf of Alaska and won’t make landfall in British Columbia—where it can be better sampled by weather stations—until Sunday. The Rex Block complicates things further and could potentially siphon off a bit of the energy before it ever reaches shore. By Sunday evening, weather models should have ingested these critical datapoints and forecast reliability should improve. If the storm is still showing up then, buckle up.


  •  

This post originally appeared at Slate. Copyright 2014. Follow Slate on Twitter.



Read more: http://www.slate.com...l#ixzz2weCKrNd0



#819 JBSF

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Posted 22 March 2014 - 07:11 PM

Went sailing on a Volvo 60 today.  It was the old NewsCorp from the 2001/02 VOR.  The weather was terrible - about 85F and 10kts.
 
Racing OD Fri and Sat - wx conditions are expected to be the same.  Damn its already getting hot.  I miss winter time.


May your sensitive inner bicep find the searing hot door frame of your car

 

Its not quite searing hot here yet.  But it will be by Late June.  Also, you can feel good that the sailing weather this weekend was terrible.  It was high 80s, but light wind - less than forecast.  So we drifted around for a few hours before we finally got two races in.  I miss winter for the great planning conditions.  The only drawback was you had to occasionally wear a long sleeve t-shirt whilst racing because it was typically in the mid 60s.  Now that its getting warm, the breeze is getting lighter.  Sailing season is almost over. :mellow:



#820 Sol Rosenberg

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Posted 22 March 2014 - 09:16 PM

Boys, we'll be knocking back cold ones at the Pink Pony before you know it.

#821 USA190520

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Posted 22 March 2014 - 09:32 PM

Sharpen yer runners, 300mi is a long way with dull blades

#822 Snaggletooth

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Posted 22 March 2014 - 09:32 PM

Its not quite searing hot here yet.  But it will be by Late June.  Also, you can feel good that the sailing weather this weekend was terrible.  It was high 80s, but light wind - less than forecast.  So we drifted around for a few hours before we finally got two races in.  I miss winter for the great planning conditions.  The only drawback was you had to occasionally wear a long sleeve t-shirt whilst racing because it was typically in the mid 60s.  Now that its getting warm, the breeze is getting lighter.  Sailing season is almost over. :mellow:

Howe do saye boo hoo overt theire?



#823 Ishmael

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Posted 22 March 2014 - 10:38 PM

http://en.bab.la/dic...

 

That's as close as I could find.



#824 USA190520

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Posted 22 March 2014 - 11:53 PM

Nah, it's not really a word but more of a passive aggressive somewhat self righteous whinge hidden within a sound that resembles a quickly deflating ball. Sometimes prefaced with an indignant sigh.

[heavy sigh] pfffft.

#825 DRIFTW00D

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 11:14 AM

Snowman%20cartoon%20for%20website.jpga1.14101.1859.CIS_Great_Lakes.143.250m.j

Its freezing, ice & snows back and looks like winter AGAIN this morning.

#826 bmiller

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 11:27 AM

Had a nice little storm here the other day, left about 6" with temps in the low teens.

 

But today and the next few are supposed to warm up.



#827 chinabald

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 11:50 AM

Last night the Detroit area got 3 inches of snow and broke the record for the snowiest winter.



#828 Just a Skosh

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 06:06 PM

Damnit tonight we have the first Tuesday night race of the season and it's supposed to be 40, raining, and blowing 20-25.  :angry:



#829 DA-WOODY

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 06:22 PM

^^^^^  if it helps any it was overcast last night and I missed the Blood Moon  :(

 

  Brrrrrrrrrrr      Dammit 



#830 dacapo

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 12:21 PM

I just woke up to 2 inches of fucking motherfucking fucking fuckity fuck snow. FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK



#831 mikewof

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Posted 16 April 2014 - 01:11 PM

I just woke up to 2 inches of fucking motherfucking fucking fuckity fuck snow. FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

 

You got the snowstorm we had two days ago. Iced up the truck like a tomb.



#832 billy backstay

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 12:12 AM

FARK ME SILLY!!  Guys in northern CT got two inches last night!  Got the RWD 328ia to the top of the driveway, but couldn't go any further, even with decent tires, due to the frozen sleet coating the asphalt.  180 Uey to the carport, and off again in the AWD X3.  

 

Have to go now, the FAKEBOOK ad below this box says that "1 female, named NIcole Anastasia wants to meet me..   WOOHOO!..



#833 Point Break

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 12:18 AM


Have to go now, the FAKEBOOK ad below this box says that "1 female, named NIcole Anastasia wants to meet me..   WOOHOO!..


Heads up......she wanted to meet me as well.......and I'm a fat old retired guy. I think she's lying.......

#834 DA-WOODY

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 01:18 AM

Don't kiss her  :rolleyes:



#835 DA-WOODY

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:35 AM

So Like haz everyone Splashed

 

are the weeds sprouting as the Beez Buzz about ????????????

 

Facking HAWT + Windy here

 

otherwise we have a Race this weekend and Even You are welcome to come out and get sum UV Damage B)   



#836 Ancient_Mariner

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 03:07 AM

Been 60-93 for over a month now.  Bite me easterners.... :P



#837 Tax Man

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 08:29 PM

Boatnerd shows 14 ships anchored off Port Huron waiting for the coast guard to break ice for them.  This is May for Christ sake.



#838 oldgoatroper

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 08:34 PM

Boatnerd shows 14 ships anchored off Port Huron waiting for the coast guard to break ice for them.  This is May for Christ sake.

 

 

For us, it can be all over the place.

 

I've seen a completely ice-free lake at the beginning of April and I've also seen three feet of snow covering the ice on the lake first weekend in May.



#839 austin1972

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 10:37 PM

Forecast looks like no spring for us. Just flip the switch to 80's next week. That constitutes a 110+ degree swing 3 months.



#840 DRIFTW00D

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 03:45 PM


Boatnerd shows 14 ships anchored off Port Huron waiting for the coast guard to break ice for them.  This is May for Christ sake.

They are 15 out there now. They need a water taxi to get crew some R & R.

Upper Lakes Piliots are going to be short on help for a while.

#841 bmiller

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Posted 10 May 2014 - 12:50 AM

Just when it starts to warm up bam! Another big winter storm is right around the corner with the promise of a serious dump.



#842 JBSF

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Posted 10 May 2014 - 09:09 AM

I just went racing yesterday.  3 races in 12-14kts of steady seabreeze and temps in the mid-90s.  Brrrrr.



#843 mikewof

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 03:14 PM

Shit ... planted a bunch of indoor-grown habanero and pea plants, figured the snow was done for the year, now it's been snowing all night and won't stop until tomorrow.

 

I covered them with cardboard, but I'll be surprised if they make it through this cold.



#844 JBSF

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 04:36 PM

Shit ... planted a bunch of indoor-grown habanero and pea plants, figured the snow was done for the year, now it's been snowing all night and won't stop until tomorrow.

 

I covered them with cardboard, but I'll be surprised if they make it through this cold.

 

Just go out and pontificate on some random topic.  All the hot air that you usually generate will be more than enough to keep them warm.   :P



#845 mikewof

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 06:39 PM

Shit ... planted a bunch of indoor-grown habanero and pea plants, figured the snow was done for the year, now it's been snowing all night and won't stop until tomorrow.

 

I covered them with cardboard, but I'll be surprised if they make it through this cold.

 

Just go out and pontificate on some random topic.  All the hot air that you usually generate will be more than enough to keep them warm.   :P

 

From whom do you steal your material Simple? Phil Silver?



#846 Bump-n-Grind

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 08:08 PM

12-18" forecast for up here in the hills



#847 DA-WOODY

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 12:09 AM

if it's of any consolation DAGO is 100+ and Dry with sum Wind

 

and the Fires have begone

 

Could some of you guys sitting Fat on Ice Please send out a 10lb bag ASAP !!! 



#848 Point Break

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 12:28 AM

96 at the beach. 87 in Palm Springs. WTF?

#849 Ancient_Mariner

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 04:43 AM

90 here today, higher yet tomorrow.  I think me & the wifey will go to some place cooler...like Yellowstone!!!!



#850 DA-WOODY

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    COUGARS COUGARS & More COUGARS

Posted 14 May 2014 - 06:51 PM

from 1 acre fire to 2000+ acre's

 

and Camp Pendleton is going Up in Flames

 

on a positive note All fires go out after crossing the Shoreline  :o



#851 Point Break

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 08:47 PM

102 today.........at the beach. Seriously! It's hotter here than Phoenix.....by a good amount.

#852 oldgoatroper

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 08:50 PM

Jeff, PB, Woody...

 

Not to be picking nits, here... but I think you guys just might be posting in the wrong thread...

 

 

(still a bit of ice on the lake...)



#853 Point Break

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Posted 14 May 2014 - 08:56 PM

Jeff, PB, Woody...
 
Not to be picking nits, here... but I think you guys just might be posting in the wrong thread...
 
 
(still a bit of ice on the lake...)

Just wanted to let you guys know.......a little cool right now is not such a bad thing. ;)

#854 Point Break

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Posted 16 May 2014 - 12:25 AM

Down to 92 at 1800. Glad it's supposed to be cooler tomorrow! But Mrs PB and I are hanging on the boat with the pup and cocktails. Could be worse.

imagejpg1_zps329e33ca.jpg

#855 bmiller

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Posted 16 May 2014 - 01:10 AM

Still cool here in central CO. However, we have a big snow pack and warm temps are just around the corner. That means the tourist will be coming in droves to raft the Ark. Should be a big water year, hopefully a safe one.



#856 DA-WOODY

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    COUGARS COUGARS & More COUGARS

Posted 23 July 2014 - 04:41 AM

California is the only state in the country that has had its hottest 1st half of the year ever. In fact, most of America has been cooler (the blue shading) than average. Not here. Out of 120 years of weather history, we are living in the #1 warmest January through July in California history.http://kpix.com/weather -- Paul Deanno KPIX



#857 skins

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:30 AM



 
 
KPIX CBS San Francisco Bay Area
Yesterday at 6:05pm · 





California is the only state in the country that has had its hottest 1st half of the year ever. In fact, most of America has been cooler (the blue shading) than average. Not here. Out of 120 years of weather history, we are living in the #1 warmest January through July in California history.http://kpix.com/weather -- Paul Deanno KPIX



 

NCDC.NOAA.GOV
cQlpA4VzceE.png
201401-201406.gif


How long until you have five different fires to deal with?

Tell your retirement community to stop watering their heirloom fruits and save up for next week...

#858 DRIFTW00D

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 12:47 PM

They can have it. I'll take todays 65f @ 60dp over yesterdays 78f @ 75 dp.

#859 DA-WOODY

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    COUGARS COUGARS & More COUGARS

Posted Yesterday, 03:42 PM

Killer cold: Winter is deadlier than summer in U.S.

http://www.usatoday....-heat/13323173/

Rice_Doyle.pngDoyle Rice, USA TODAY8:31 a.m. EDT July 30, 2014
1406723258000-winter.JPG

(Photo: Spencer Platt, Getty Images)

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Winter cold kills more than twice as many Americans as does summer heat, according to a report released today by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), a division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Based on death certificate data from 2006-10, the report's authors found that "about 2,000 U.S. residents died each year from weather-related causes of death." The CDC report found that 63% of these deaths were attributed to exposure to excessive natural cold, hypothermia or both, while about 31% of these deaths were attributed to exposure to excessive natural heat, heat stroke, sun stroke or all.

Only about 6% were attributed to floods, severe storms, tornadoes, hurricanes or lightning.

"This is the first report from the National Center for Health Statistics to focus on weather-related death by place of residence," said report co-author Jennifer Parker, chief of the special projects branch at the NCHS. The authors studied the causes of death on death certificates as prepared by coroners or medical examiners. Deaths when weather was an underlying or contributing cause were included.

One interesting finding, according to Parker, was the high number of deaths in the rural West due to the cold. Not surprisingly, most of the heat-related deaths occurred in the warmer South and West. The report also found that the rate of heat-related mortality was higher in the most urbanized — along with the most rural — counties.

Most weather deaths in this study were "quieter" deaths, said report lead author Deborah Ingram of the NCHS. They don't get the attention of the catastrophic storm events such as tornadoes and hurricanes, which are very visible, dramatic events that cause some deaths and sometimes widespread economic destruction.

This report also found that older people, men and non-Hispanic blacks had higher weather-related death rates than other ages, women, and other race and ethnicity subgroups.

Additionally, the combined effects of a warming climate, the aging U.S. population and the increasing number of people living in urban areas (where the urban heat island effect exacerbates the effects of high temperatures) may result in an increasing number of people at risk of heat-related death.

The CDC death data differ from data produced by the National Weather Service (NWS), which finds that, based on a 10-year average from 2004-13, only about 640 people die because of weather each year. Weather service data find that heat is the biggest killer, followed by tornadoes, hurricanes and floods. Cold is only the eighth-biggest killer, the NWS reports.

Why the discrepancy? "The NWS' fatality and injury information is derived from a database where the primary function is to collect weather reports and any details associated with an event's impact," said Brent MacAloney, NWS Storm Data Program Manager. "The fatality and injury information is only supplementary."

"In the case of the heat fatalities and injuries, only those fatalities that occurred when atmospheric conditions met the local weather service forecast office's advisory or warning conditions would be documented. The same logic is used for the cold fatalities and injuries," he said.

The CDC death data almost always include weather conditions, regardless of whether it was severe or unusual or met the weather service's advisory and warning criteria.

For instance, in the CDC study, "the heat-related deaths were not necessarily during a heat wave," Parker said.

However, neither set of statistics included weather-related traffic accidents, which kill more than 7,000 Americans each year on our nation's highways, according to data from the Federal Highway Administration.






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