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Question of the Week 4/9/07


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#1 Editor

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 03:09 AM

Question of the Week

Challenged

Now that the America's Cup is heating up, let's cut right to the chase - which team do you think will emerge as the challenger, and why? Have fun.

04/09/06

#2 Wattie

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 03:18 AM

I think it will come down to ETZ and BMW Oracle.
Both are Kiwi Teams, but the one form Aotearoa will take it in a tight battle.

#3 Madmax

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 03:29 AM

The Flightless Birds.

Kiwi's.

#4 usa25889

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 04:40 AM

Beemer Oracle! Let's USA back in it!

#5 stevedallas

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 04:40 AM

I gots to like the BMW Oracle team.

#6 Murnango

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 09:27 AM

I`ll go with ETNZ

#7 Mid

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 09:39 AM

kiwi , just not sure which .......................

#8 Konstantin

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 09:44 AM

Sorry but BMWO is German :-)

#9 gusmus

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 09:58 AM

New Zealand have immense amounts of speed but maybe it's addled their brains and is affecting their tactical and crew decisions. BMW/Oracle have the upwind speed and bad tactics combined with downwind speed and bad crew handling. Who will it be? Well if these two don't sort themselves out then Mascalzone may just fuck the both of them. They have themselves pretty well sorted out now and are starting to show very good pace on all points of sailing apart from some iffy tactical decisions. Keep an eye on Desafia Espańol as well because they are fast and just need to sort out their racing tactics. Too many rash and spontanious decisions for my liking in the ACT13. So far it looks like ETNZ for me but who knows.

#10 chuso007

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 10:17 AM

I have no idea, but if Desafío doesn't make it, I hope TNZ does...

Or maybe an italian team, so the cup stays in Europe.

#11 gybe-ho!

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 11:03 AM

C'mon The Rascals!

#12 Teaky

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 12:34 PM

Alinghi to retain. I don't care about the challenger, because I used to date one of the team at Alinghi, and I've got $500 on it against that Kiwi retard, onephatdiva. I'd hope for a TNZ -Vs- Alinghi.

#13 onephatdiva

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 01:12 PM

Teaky oh teaky

You can't beat me in monopoly let alone a real game (lets be honest the AC is a game), so pucker up B'Arch or shall I say your $$ pinko dollars. A (NZ) lingi is not beating ETNZ (For the record I have every other team in this beat as well but they still don't matter)

#14 DEAD MONEY

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 01:23 PM

If all depends on who shows up. If the Oracle in Act 13 does they will not win and New Zealand will whoop 'em real good. Oracle made mistakes that most beer can racers couldn't do. Perhaps they had the "C" team in (it couldn't have been their "B" team because they were sooo bad). I'd like to think they were sandbagging but Larry does not seem to be the kind of guy that likes to lose at anything especially something that he is spending $300 mil on.

It will come down to Oracle vs TNZ. It'll be a coin toss. I'd love to see Oracle beat Alinghi and bring the Cup back. Hey everyone has dreams and it will be a long shot.

#15 GybeSet®

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 01:28 PM

kiwi , just not sure which .......................


hey everyone , question is challenger, ie winner of the LV Cup

alKiwinghi is not in that Cup !
------------------

NZ for me.

I like how AC racing seems to be closer and have more winners ( eg act 13),

or in an AC Cup final are things the same as ever ?

#16 marian

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 01:29 PM

I think it's a harder call than most times, because teams like Desafio and Mascalzone, which I wouldn't have considered last year, have clearly improved a lot, whereas NZ seems to have gone backwards. Luna Rossa has never looked as good as it should IMO and may still be a dark horse, whereas I suspect BMW O was none too pleased with the way ACT 13 ended.
I'll stick my neck out and give the last four as Desafio, Mascalzone, Luna Rossa and BMW Oracle, with the Spanish taking it if they keep their cool and BMW O if Desafio makes too many mistakes.

#17 gusmus

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 02:01 PM

Nice call Marion. But don't forget those bloody kiwis. they can put Moaori voodoo on the others you know. I think it has something to do with live volcanoes mixed with Spanish beer but I may be wrong about the volcanoes..
PS. Did you get my write up. I put it on the server last night about 10.00PM local. Cheers.

#18 marian

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 02:07 PM

Nice call Marion. But don't forget those bloody kiwis. they can put Moaori voodoo on the others you know. I think it has something to do with live volcanoes mixed with Spanish beer but I may be wrong about the volcanoes..
PS. Did you get my write up. I put it on the server last night about 10.00PM local. Cheers.

I don't think the Kiwis are going to do anything like as well as people expect and I too expected until this last week.
I've e-mailed and PMd you!!

#19 gusmus

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 02:54 PM

Got them. PM,d you back.
I still won't write of the kiwis until the bloody boat sinks.
By the way. What the hell is this Esmerelda race? I think it's being organised by the super yachts for the 16th 17th and 18th but I have no more details apart from that press boats are TBA. Find out if you can because I can't.

#20 Peacefrog

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 02:59 PM

I think it will be the American T-Hutch that will lead the way into the finals against Alinghi. That is my call.

#21 Pikey

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 03:01 PM

tzn or oracle - will come down to it on the day, TNZ also arguably had some of thier b team in with ainslie at the helm, not that hes exactly b team material

the fleet racing gave a good measure of boat speed, however once it comes to the match racing alot of its going to be prestart, which we didnt get a chance to see in Act 13 - seeing as the boatspeeds quite similar for alot of boats, it'll come down to whos got the better afterguard - and what conditions suit the team!

which reminds me of a question i've had for awhile - are they allowed swop boats in the middle of the LV series? or even in between races? or do they have to declare before hand?

#22 Experimental

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 03:05 PM

I believe they are only allowed to switch between rounds unless it is an emergency, but I could be totally wrong. As an American I want Oracle to go all the way so they'll have the chance to bring the cup here again, but my gut tells me ETNZ. Wouldn't mind that either, as no one wants it more than the Kiwis.

#23 thumper

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 03:37 PM

The Chinese of Pub39

#24 bowgeezer

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 04:21 PM

Which boat has the Whomper on it? I vote for that one.

#25 oldskool

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 05:34 PM

I think it will be the American T-Hutch that will lead the way into the finals against Alinghi. That is my call.


Agreed...but look for the South Africans to be right there too. They have good pace, as long as they get good starts in the Matches, spoiler...anyone...bueller....

#26 WetHog

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 06:26 PM

I'm pulling for Oracle because I"m a homer but if they can't I'm pulling for Mascalzone. I get a really good vibe from them and I think they'll be a handful for a lot of teams in the LVC.

In the beginning of this thread there were some saying Oracle was disappointing in this last Act and I don't understand that. They had good crew work, jib and peal in the first race that they won, and were consistent except for the one race they broke their jib foil thingy. They won 1 race and should of won the last race except they were covering LR and forcing them into 3 position to cover their final LV rankings so they let Alinghi have that race. An argument can be made that they should of won a 3rd race if it wasn't for the lovely wind shift at the end.

What surprises me is the pass Luna Rossa is getting for their performance. For the majority of the Act they were consistently in the middle of the pack and showed really nothing except for the last race. Along with ETNZ they have the most AC experience of all the challengers and they don't appear to be anything special this time around.

In the end though who knows whats what. Oracle and ETNZ were racing their first new boats and had some "B" teamers mixed in. All of the other challengers were racing their second, or only, new boat and the majority of those teams showed improvement. So the only thing that can be taken from this last LV Act is that things will be crazy during the LVC and China Team still sucks! :rolleyes:

WetHog :ph34r:

#27 crazyuncle

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 06:48 PM

Question of the Week

Challenged

Now that the America's Cup is heating up, let's cut right to the chase - which team do you think will emerge as the challenger, and why? Have fun.

04/09/06


I don't really know but I hope its one of the Italians. Not that I'm eyetie or anything but any nation that loves sailing so much they put 3 teams (and supply a lot of staff to the others) into an 11 team competition deserves to be rewarded.

#28 marian

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 06:56 PM

so they let Alinghi have that race.

Do you really think they could have stopped them?

An argument can be made that they should of won a 3rd race if it wasn't for the lovely wind shift at the end.

An argument can also be made that they wouldn't have won the very first race, but for the big wind shift on the final leg.

Oracle and ETNZ ........ had some "B" teamers mixed in.

How can you call a guy like Ainslie a "B teamer"? Would you have said the same if Pacé had helmed BMW O?

China Team still sucks!


Constantly knocking China Team is very unfair. They have done brilliantly well, given what they are up against - a totally inadequate budget, no pool of highly experienced Chinese sailors to draw on, terrible language problems etc etc. Mark my words, they will be the big danger in the AmCup after the next one.

#29 wobblyLB

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 07:10 PM

Gotta say this. I think the AC would be better served if all the big wigs just bought old steam ships and did a quarter mile sprint using $100 bills as fuel in the boiler. The VOR was so muh more entertaining. Fuckin Rich people.

#30 Prouda my Pickle Dish

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 07:13 PM

If they let in the most qualified team,

it won't be a contest:











Attached File  post_255_1148072118_thumb.jpg   6.68K   14 downloads

#31 WetHog

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 07:18 PM

"Do you really think they could of stopped them?"

-Listening to the commentators it sounded like it was Oracle's race to win so YES.

"How can you call a guy like Ainslie a "B teamer"? Would you have said the same if Pacé had helmed BMW O?"

- I call Ainslie a B teamer because he is the B team helmsman isn't he?????? If he was better than Barker he would be the A team helmsman for ETNZ.

"Constantly knocking China Team is very unfair. They have done brilliantly well, given what they are up against - a totally inadequate budget, no pool of highly experienced Chinese sailors to draw on, terrible language problems etc etc. Mark my words, they will be the big danger in the AmCup after the next one."

- You can say knocking China Team is unfair but I don't think it is. I've read a number of articles about China Team on their website and others and all those articles are filled with quotes from them stating that they "are right in the mix", or they have "caught up with the rest of the challengers". Would you say that is true??? The AC is the big time so I talk the way I do about China Team because they are no where near any of the other Challengers. They can't even keep up with Team Germany. If Oracle, Luna Rossa, ETNZ, Mascalzone, Team Germany, +39, Shosholoza, Victory, Desafio, or Areva made comments about how they were "right in the mix" or they "have caught up with the rest of the Challengers" but consistently finished 4-5+ minutes behind everyone in every race I'd be equally critical of any, or all, or those teams. But thats not the case so until China Team backs up what they say on the race coarse I will continue to be critical of that team!

WetHog :ph34r:

#32 SamLowry

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 07:29 PM

I don't think you can draw many conclusions from the Acts because that's exactly what they were...everybody was 'Acting.' I had trouble counting all the buckets dragging over the side in the most recent one.

My guess is based on past performance and team building.

#1 Challenger - Team NZ. Headed by team builder extraordinaire Dalts. I think Barker and crew have matured and will be ready to capitalize on the wins and drive through the losses.

#2 - Oracle. One man cannot do it all. Expect another afterguard meltdown like last time. (2003) Skipper Dickson: "Should we gybe?" Helm P. Holmberg: "I dunno, boss, you decide. I'm just steering here."

#3 - Luna Rossa. Spithill's still dangerous, but this Italian team is famous for spending the most to get the least.

#4 - Mascalzoni. The main spoilers. Running hot and cold, but running mostly hotter. Followed closely by,

#5 - +39. These guys will get some upsets if they can keep the crew in beer and the stick upright.

#6 - Desafio. Program's still not there, even with Cayard's help.

#7 - Team Sh. Heart is not enough. But it will pay a few dividends. Everyone say, "Aaahhh."

#8 - Victory. Will not be very victorious. A last minute infusion of top talent will not help if they don't get out there and start developing the crew. I'd start with tacking and work up to leeward takedowns. Forget a gybe-set.

#9 - Areva. Will have one upset win. The rest of the time...cheap seats.

#10 - UITG. Will have one upset win against Areva. I hope they stick with it, though.

#11 - China. Since they've got the biggest trade surplus in all of history, you'd think they could afford to buy a better team. Maybe they will next time.

#33 idontwan2know

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 08:02 PM

1) Oracle. Think they've got the pace and the afterguard set from the start, so they won't be scrambling to play catchup as they did last time.

2) The Latin Rascals. How can you not root for them? If the pace they showed in Act 13 holds against BMWO and ETNZ's new boats, I think they sneak in to the LVC finals via solid, consistent performance.

3) ETNZ. They could easily be first, but I just don't feel the necessary consistency. Mistakes and gear failures will cost them races and at some point it will be too much.

4-11....who the hell knows.

The match will be interesting. I'm not quite sold on Alinghi being as dominant as most folks....also think the lack of tough racing will prove a detriment. Sooner or later folks will figure out that defender trials are useful and necessary to defend the cup. Have to still give them the edge, though.

#34 cheeky

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 08:10 PM

Sorry but BMWO is German :-)



Pretty sure they represent a San Francisco Yacht Club. Sorry to dissapoint.

#35 cheeky

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 08:15 PM

I'm a seppo but I really have no love for ORACLE. Would love to see MASCALZONE win the LV Cup!!! At the end of the day... I'm sure Alinghi will walk away with the cup, again, anyway.

#36 43577

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 12:19 AM

I am going to make an account for every team in the challanger's cup race.

then I will predict each one as a winner.

then when it is over, I will use the account that was lucky enough to be right and post about how smart I am and I knew it all along.


That's my plan

#37 HHN92

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 01:21 AM

Smart money will go with ETNZ or BMW/Oracle.

Sand-bagging aside, with the mix of boats in Act 13 this may turn out a surprising LV finale. Other than China, ITG, and Shosholozza, any one of the 2nd tier teams could step-up and get in there.

I just would not want to lay it down today. Let's see a round of one-on-one then take a poke at it.

#38 Terrafirma

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 05:36 AM

Oracle should be the challengers but I worry about their afterguard, not convinced Dickson is the man for the job. With that in mind I will have to go with ETNZ.

#39 DeadFuckingLast

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 07:25 AM

1. ETNZ
2. BMW
3. Mascalzone
4. Desafio

And for the AC I'd love ETNZ to win, but reality tell's me that it will end 5-0 for Alinghi again... :(

#40 JBSF

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 07:25 AM

Oracle, because I think they've been sandbagging up to this point.

#41 gusmus

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 08:11 AM

Oracle, because I think they've been sandbagging up to this point.

Oracle Sandbagging???? You must have your fucking head in a sandbag me old darling. You don't go around blowing headfoils and breaking expensive spinnaker poles when you are sandbagging.

#42 roca

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 08:46 AM

I think you guys are a little underestimating LUNA ROSSA. They have a good boat and with grael and spithill they can do good. remember that in match race during the acts they did well and that experience is important under pressure.
therefore:
TNZ
LUNA ROSSA
ORACLE BMW
MASCALZONE (DESAFIO if winds will be light in next weeks)

TNZ
LUNA ROSSA

TNZ?

ALINGHI!!!

#43 grandsoleil

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 09:48 AM

My Guess:

1. TNZ: because they have the experience, they're up to speed and they have DALTON
2. ORACLE: They have the speed, but still have some work to do on the technical side (pole-breakage, foil-troubles) and I am not sure about their afterguard
3. LR: Have not shown their full potential in Act 13, but still have some time
4. DESAFIO or MASCALZONE: seem to be the strongest of "the others"

#44 idontwan2know

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 10:17 AM

The foil troubles thing is nonsense. This happened several times in 2003 to several different teams. If you submarine the bow, the weight of the water against the tack will rip the jib out of the foil, potentially damaging it in the process. Same thing with spin pole smacking the forestay....there isn't a pole on any of those boats that wouldn't snap like a twig when that happens. It's the nature of carbon fiber.

You can certainly fault them for allowing it to hit the stay in the first place, but the fluky winds and chaos on the bow under those conditions has to be considered.

TNZ's repeated spinnaker handling problems were more indicative of systemic problems than Oracle's gear failures. How many twists, bad hoists, poor drops, dirty gybes did they have? Seemed like one almost every race.

#45 marian

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 10:33 AM

TNZ's repeated spinnaker handling problems were more indicative of systemic problems than Oracle's gear failures. How many twists, bad hoists, poor drops, dirty gybes did they have? Seemed like one almost every race.

Yep, that's why I didn't have them in my top four.

#46 gusmus

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 11:39 AM

And how many times could BMW/Oracle have won but didn't? This is the case in point. They have the speed from a good boat and the crew expertise from an international pool of top flight sailors,and the money behind them from "Uncle Larry" but in my opinion it still isn't enough to get the job done. Like all the other teams they are way behind Alinghis benchmark and have it all to do.

#47 WetHog

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 12:41 PM

I'm still confused how Luna Rossa gets a pass in all this discussion. I guess it's good it appears that Oracle is the main topic of unrealized potential but this is only Oracle's second AC. Luna Rossa has been around since the 2000 AC and they appear to take a step back in every AC since 2000 but no one is talking about their apparent mediocrity. Don't really understand that :huh:

Here is a link to a story on the Oracle team website and it explains in great detail how and why Race 7 happened the way it did. Interesting. http://bmworacleraci...track.type=home

WetHog :ph34r:

#48 MysticRhythms

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 01:42 PM

After just getting back from Valencia with the oportunity to watch the last two days of racing you can draw some valid predicitons. The Act 13 racing was exciting to watch, that is for bigboat racing anyways. There's no question that the big 3 challengers will have a battle to the end to determine who will go up against Alinghi.

What was not proven is who is fast in the light air since most of the racing during the Act was in 10 - 15 konts. During the summer months the conditions will be expected to be in the 7 - 10 range a lot of the time. And if it gets up over 15 there will be big differentials as well.

My best guess is that it will go in this order:

ETNZ
Luna Rosa
BMW Oracle
Mascalzone

The veteran teams will prove to be hard to beat and the mental stability will be a factor as well, which Oracle has had problems with in the past. Spithill and team will most likely prevail over Oracle and possibly even over ETNZ. They haven't had a chance to prove themselves well enough lately either.

Mascalzone has proven to have a fast boat in light air whch they didn't get a chance to show during the Act, except for one of the early races that had a 180 deg. windshift at the end which jumbled the results. They were able to sail through the fleet quite well the last day in the moderate stuff.

There's no question that Act 13 didn't tell us enough to make a truely qualified prediction of how the challenger finals will look. There will be some big upsets to the big teams along the way. The fleet racing and Act format has brought the B teams up to speed faster than anyone would have predicted, they won't be complete pushovers.

Also, there may have been some sandbagging during the Act 13 regatta, but not much. It still had enough value to make it count for everyone to be at their best. There were some boats using their second string bulbs and sails and rotating their B team crew line ups in. But overall the racing was indicitive of the quality and effort we're likely to see throughout the LV regatta.

The finals against Alinghi will not be much of a fight, they have speed to burn as long as their driver can get them a decent start, which is a concern for them. Alinghi was so much faster than the rest of the fleet they didn't need a good start. The last race they started over 30 seconds behind and sailed right back into 2nd easily, only to be let through by Oracle who was covering LR. They still haven't revealed what SUI 100 can do against the rest of the fleet. It was too bad to see how big the differential really is, the fleet race showed a lot of potential for new teams to rise to the top only to also show how hard Alinghi is going to be to beat.

Just my humble opinion based on many hours of first hand viewing.

Should be interesting to see how all shapes up.

#49 poi

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 03:24 PM

And how many times could BMW/Oracle have won but didn't? This is the case in point. They have the speed from a good boat and the crew expertise from an international pool of top flight sailors,and the money behind them from "Uncle Larry" but in my opinion it still isn't enough to get the job done. Like all the other teams they are way behind Alinghis benchmark and have it all to do.

very interesting read indeed.

#50 idontwan2know

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 09:20 PM

And how many times could BMW/Oracle have won but didn't? This is the case in point. They have the speed from a good boat and the crew expertise from an international pool of top flight sailors,and the money behind them from "Uncle Larry" but in my opinion it still isn't enough to get the job done. Like all the other teams they are way behind Alinghis benchmark and have it all to do.


I don't disagree that they have issues to work out. Simply that they have fewer issues and the ones that they have a relatively minor compared to the other challengers. The "gear problems" are simply problems that are inherent in all of these boats. Alinghi's jib would have ripped out too if they took a bloody great wave over the bow, and their spin pole will break if they ever bang it up against the forestay, too. Yeah, it looks bad for Oracle and I'm sure they all have red faces over there right now, but the question is whether their troubles are random and/or fixable or are they systemic? That's what you have to look at right now.

ALL the challengers have warts on their nose. The question is which team have the most fixable problems and who looks like they'll be fastest when they get fixed? From what I saw, that was clearly Oracle.

The game could all change when the new boats hit the water(and TNZ get their A helmsman on the boat), but so far Oracle has shown me the most potential of the challengers. The LVC is all about putting the heat to the teams and burning away the weaknesses and burnishing up that potential. The real racing that matters doesn't start for another 6 weeks, and one way or another, things will look very different then than they do now.

#51 Liquid

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 09:34 PM

Pretty sure they represent a San Francisco Yacht Club. Sorry to dissapoint.


.... let's all keep up with the conversation shall we! Oracle represents the Golden Gate Yacht Club. Maybe it's german kiwi team that speak english!

#52 Chromo

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Posted 10 April 2007 - 11:17 PM

Like this it could become interesting:
Mascalzone
Oracle
Luna Rossa
ETNZ

Which would bring an Italian semifinal!

ETNZ or Oracle must have some hidden powers for the LV final, which the Italians can not match.

I would hate to see the cup leaving Europe, but I would like to see someone beat Alinghi, and I think it can be done.

Shosholoza is my outsider to take away Luna Rossa from the last four

#53 Tim

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Posted 12 April 2007 - 02:13 PM

TNZ win with Ben A at the helm.

#54 shanghaisailor

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Posted 12 April 2007 - 02:36 PM

I think Dalts and his boys will do it - Helmsman is protege of the greatest AC skipper of all time(on race wins) I hthink he is the only person there (including defender) to not be on a fat ZERO in terms of AC Match Race victories and he is being bushed by one of the best in the business Ben Ainslie and certainly the best "B" helmsman.

Besides if you have won 2006 - would you be showing everything in Act 13.

As far as Alinghi's dominance in Act 13 - they were just a spectator, their performance had no impact on the Rankings for the LV Cup and were probably left alone.

I think that maybe (just maybe) not only will ENZ be the challenger, they may just be the 2010 defender - probably have to eat my words and my heart lies with pronably every other sailor without a team - SHOSHOLOZA - but they are just too young in the event.




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