Mr Farrier I appreciate you have now changed your statement to be 5 boats completed in 2015, as a potential purchaser I asked a very simple question based on your prior statement that 5 were built in 2015 with numbers potentially doubling in 2016. I now see looking back in detail on your very informative web site that of the 5 boats finished in 2015 4 were actually in build for some time longer than the year of 2015. With this being fact established can I still confidently calculate that there will be 10 boats built in 2016 with build #2X likely to be rolled into a container from your factory or possible Philippine factory in the early months of 2017?
A simple yes or no would suffice.
The short answer is no. Delivery time could still be plus or minus 6 months, and I will not make any more accurate predictions until I can be sure they are accurate to within a few weeks at least.
My statement about 5 boats being built in 2015 has also never changed. The 2015 result remains exactly as shown on my progress web site. We also probably built three more boats if you want to count all the parts for subsequent boats that were also built in 2015.
Note that while I have counted Number 7 as a 2015 completion, it is only just being delivered next week. It could have been finished and sailing by the end of December but annual summer holidays meant no work for 2 - 3 weeks. Some key parts were also delivered not to spec, which has also added to the delay, but it will be test sailed next week, and then shipped. So 4.9 boats for 2015 if one wants to be pedantic, but we do have two more boats very close behind.
No.7 ready to go sailing
Our target for 2016 is 10 boats built, or one a month by the end of the year, but at this early stage it is impossible to be certain. Could be more, could be less. There are just too many variables, and until we get to a more regular production rate, with design fully locked in, and all variables eliminated, then it is impossible to predict future delivery dates accurately.
Predictions without all the data and correct procedures in place can also lead to artificial deadlines, with short cuts or sloppy work just to get boats out the door, which is something I will not do. Again, the exact same situation existed in 1987.
This describes the current position perfectly, and I can't say it any better now. The only difference is that we have a many more orders compared to back then, so we are not putting any time into boat shows. These can be very expensive, and the funds are far better used for production matters. Boat shows will happen, but only when we have boats and funds to spare.
Designs That work
Well done Ian,
under promise and over deliver is a good way to operate.
Good luck with your efforts this year and maintaining your positive spirit.