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us7070

Member Since 02 Jan 2004
Offline Last Active Sep 24 2016 10:40 PM
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In Topic: Newport -Bermuda 2016

15 June 2016 - 02:08 AM

if the 12Z euro turns out to be correct.., they will have trouble starting the race...

 

it looks a lot like a sub-tropical storm - a storm that begins as an extratropical storm and then evolves to have more tropical characteristics. A subtropical storm can certainly become a full tropical storm - the euro forecasts this one to have sustained winds well in excess of 33kts, which is the threshold for a tropical storm. The 12Z euro seemed to have no fronts associated with it so it looks quasi-tropical, but it won't really be a tropical storm unless it develops a warm core and other tropical features

 

the 12Z is slower to develop the storm than the 0Z was.., but it still ends up right over the rhumb line

 

fortunately, NOAA is favoring the GFS, and it seems like nobody is really favoring the euro...

 

that being said, the newest GFS looks like a pretty slow race...

 

here is a screen shot of the euro

 

Attached File  12ZEURO.png   799.51KB   19 downloads


In Topic: Newport -Bermuda 2016

14 June 2016 - 05:55 PM

12ZGFS is a completely different race...

 

instead of being all easterlies and southeriles.., it's now westerlies - still a slow race, for small- midsized boats though

 

12Z euro is later than the GFS, so we'll see what that says

 

i guess i have to amend my earlier comment about the differences between runs of the same model -  this is an unusual difference between runs for 4-5 days out


In Topic: Newport -Bermuda 2016

14 June 2016 - 05:28 PM

Red lines are grid based, Blue are isochronal based.  It is for a particular type of boat.  If there is one thing I'm learning in prepping for the race, the models change faster than a bi-polar personality on crack. 

 

the different models are varying by more than usual right now

 

run to run for a particular model is varying too, maybe a bit more than usual

 

the different models will probably converge quite a lot by the start - to either a euro solution, a gfs solution, or somewhere in between, but i think in between is not so likely this time. most meteorologists - including those at OPC - have been thinking the gfs forecast is most likely to be correct, although just today their confidence has been wavering.

 

if the euro validates.., the RC will have to make a very tough call

 

even if the 6z gfs is right it will be a tough race for some boats

 

no matter which one ends up being right.., i guarantee that the very last thing you will be thinking about on this race is the difference between isochronal and grid routing.

 

that route you have posted probably has you crossing the gulf stream with 25-30kts of E wind against 4kts of current - that's some serious shit


In Topic: NYYC Annual Rolex

14 June 2016 - 05:13 PM

i don't think it's reasonable in this case to expect them to have predicted something that has pretty much never happened before .., especially in enough time to have done anything about it.

 

i thought it was kind of fun - of course we escaped without any contact.., but still...

 

it's sailboat racing - not everything is necessarily going to work out the way we wish it to - you just have to accept that

 

the possibility of damage, even injury, whether your fault, or not, is just part of it


In Topic: Newport -Bermuda 2016

13 June 2016 - 03:55 PM

Thank you organizing committee for posting the SI's with enough time for us to read them!