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rule69

Member Since 11 Nov 2009
Offline Last Active Today, 05:42 AM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Cost of satellite weather for ocean cruising

Yesterday, 09:28 PM

Are folks still getting images direct from the LEO wx satellites at sea? I haven't seen as many of those eggbeater antennas as I used to.


In Topic: Cost of satellite weather for ocean cruising

Yesterday, 08:23 PM

From a delivering wx data to folks perspective I've never found it harder to send to a winlink.org address than any other.

 

Just FWIW, even if you don't have band privileges, for raising help on SSB 14.300 is worth a try.


In Topic: Cost of satellite weather for ocean cruising

21 August 2014 - 06:33 PM

I also look at the wfax charts to get a better idea of the frontal activity, and any early-stage tropical low-pressure systems, but the gribs are my main source of info.

 

Often, particularly in the mid latitudes, the RAIN rate on the models will show the fronts / trofs [sic]. If I can get it I like to see the lifted index too.

 

When we started cruising wxfax and fleet code forecasts were worth jumping through hoops to get. Over the years AVN / GFS has gotten to be much more useful to me and completely replaced them.

 

IME, the models are not skillful near the equator and the wx faxes there are the same bad data but older.


In Topic: The Boiling Pacific...Getting pretty active. Tropical Wx

18 August 2014 - 07:14 PM

On the very long range maps there appears to be a cyclone trying to form and make its way up the gulf of California. I would put the chances of that affecting the local area at about 5% right now as long range maps tend to be way off and even overly hopeful when it comes to generating these types of systems this far out.

 

Way, way, way out beyond the skill of GFS but it has been pretty consistently trying to do something along these lines:

 


Attached File  gfsbaja0818.png   216.48K   6 downloads

 

Forming around the 23 and moving NNW towards Baja.


In Topic: Central Pacific Tropical Update- Hawaiian Islands

16 August 2014 - 12:39 AM

From the department of things well said, the NOAA Hawaii area discussion:

 

http://www.prh.noaa....l/pages/AFD.php

 

"During the same period, there is a high degree of uncertainty with respect to the tropical Pacific. Global models have been consistently indicating some sort of development far southeast of the state, but also have been depicting wildly varying evolutions and motions of any system that may eventually develop. The situation is further complicated by the potential for interaction with current east Pacific tropical storm Karina. It is too early to have any confidence as to the potential impacts, if any, on island weather next week. For now, the forecast calls for typical trade wind weather to continue."