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idontwan2know

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Everything posted by idontwan2know

  1. Biden has done well for the most part, but that was a head slapper for sure.
  2. Anybody paying attention to what's happening with the F1 race in Jeddah? A missile struck an oil refinery a few miles from the track during the first practice session. The drivers had to be convinced to race, with some of the "information" provided to them being that they may not be allowed out of the country if they don't race. I put my money on somewhere in Saudi in the past, but that's going to be hard to ignore.
  3. While in the grand sense, Taiwan may be weaker than Ukraine, I think you're overselling the comparison. Russia didn't have to cross a heavily disputed strait and conduct amphibious landings to get to Ukraine. Taking Taiwan would not be easy or without significant cost for China.
  4. Depends on how many Russians are in that pocket. I have seen wildly varying stuff, from just a couple weak BTGs to a whole army. We shall see.
  5. Saw some reports that Ukraine may actually be close to encircling Russian forces northwest of Kyiv in the Hostomel/Irpin area. Not clear exactly how many troops that is, but it would be a significant morale issue for the Russians for sure.
  6. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/ I think there's definitely some truth to this, but it's a little superficial and also has a distinct whiff of hawkish neocon bullshit. I take it for granted that Ukraine is performing better on the battlefield but that's a long way from winning - the Confederacy performed better on the battlefield for most of the US Civil War, but it's debatable whether they were ever actually winning As much info as is available online about this war, we are still looking through a keyhole. Russia
  7. My personal favorite of the bad maps was one that had the entirety of southern Ukraine in red as Russian controlled, but a bunch of small blue dots scattered throughout the red that marked Ukrainian counter offensives. There's no such thing as a counteroffensive from within controlled territory. They never controlled it in the first place.
  8. The first post that you responded to so negatively was literally referencing the same article which you now seem to support as a source of information. I never said watching English RT was a good source of information. Your reading comprehension sucks, mate.
  9. Found the article. While nothing RT says can be taken at face value, there's a lot to be learned by examining what RT wants others to believe. That's the value. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/17/putin-russia-state-tv-news-00018304
  10. Can't find the link, but there was a good article from someone interpreting the evolution of coverage on RT, which is a good barometer for what the Kremlin thinking is. On the good side, there has been a lot less focus on "de-nazifying" and eliminating the Ukrainian government/state and more talk about Donbas and Crimea....that would seem to suggest that Putin is trying to lay the groundwork to negotiate Russia keeping Donbas/Crimea and Ukraine as a neutral (all of which he could have had before the invasion, btw) and declare victory. On the bad side, lots more talk about Ukrainian W
  11. Two things worth noting today: First, even Kharkiv, which is basically right on the border with Russia has not been sufficiently "encircled" to prevent trains running in and out and the highways are still open as well. The city is under heavy bombardment from many angles, but you really can't be said to have besieged a city if supply lines are still open into it. Second, Ukrainian counteroffensives have retaken Myokalaiv and several surrounding villages in the south, further indicating that even the more successful Russian efforts in the south are overextended, poorly coo
  12. The supply line issue is definitely a valid one. The handwringing has been about the possibility of the Ukrainian forces there being encircled and destroyed in detail which doesn’t seem likely to me. I think they’d be able to disperse and break through to the west fairly easily for the foreseeable future. There’s just no reason to do so right now as they’re forcing the Russians to extend their fronts and already buggered supply lines by remaining where they are. But again, I am just a guy whose read too many books and played too many video games for my own good, so I am probably very wron
  13. Not a military expert, but I think this threatened encirclement of Ukraine’s eastern forces is a fantasy of guys who draw red lines on maps more than an urgent reality. As we have seen in countless recent conflicts, because you have driven twenty miles down a highway doesn’t come close to meaning you control all the territory between that highway and the next well enough to deny passage of the enemy. Hell, it doesn’t even mean that you control all twenty miles you’ve driven down. The Russian army that cannot encircle Kyiv less than 100 miles from the Russian border cannot cond
  14. Good lord man, calm down. I am not alongside the murdering sociopath and would be happy if one of his generals put a bullet in the back of his brain. But this is the real world not the movies ,and you have to consider all possible outcomes.
  15. Actually, I think he has been fairly predictable until recently, you just have to try and put yourself in the mindset of a person who is completely amoral and has two priorities: maintaining personal power and restoring the Russian empire. Within those confines he's been remarkably pragmatic until this Ukraine invasion, which is such a massive blunder that even his own military/intelligence people didn't think he'd ever actually do it.
  16. You said eliminating Putin is a big upside. My point that was what comes after Putin may be worse.
  17. I wouldn't count my chickens on that one. Putin is more likely to be deposed by a conservative demagogue who criticizes Putin for being incompetent and weak in his mission of restoring the glory of the Russian Empire than a Europe loving peacenik.
  18. Today the Kremlin claimed that Putin specifically ordered that no conscripts be used in Ukraine and that they're launching an investigation to find out who violated orders. Which is similar to OJ promising to find the real killers. The Russian army can't conduct any serious ground operations without conscripts, they're integral to the force. Much like the US military cannot operate at scale without the reserves/national guard being involved.
  19. Ukraine certainly....the question is Russia. Do the farmers have money to buy seed, fuel their tractors, etc.
  20. Central and Eastern Europe may be paying a lot more for gas next winter, but people in Indonesia may be starving. Ukraine and Russia combine to make up 26% of the world's wheat supply. If they miss the spring/summer planting season, there will be problems. Wheat futures are up about 50% last I looked.
  21. We probably know plenty about the resistance, there's just no desire to share most of it for operational security reasons.
  22. Yes. One of the reasons the southern forces fared better is that they're closer to pre-staged supply depots established at railheads in Crimea. The northern forces advancing out of Belarus didn't have that advantage. A number of the analysts I follow think that the Russians can only keep up this pace of operations for 3-4 weeks total before there will have to be a major pause in operations to replenish, resupply and swap out some of the units that have become combat ineffective. Russia will be pushing hard to try and capture Kyiv before then so that they can time their operational pause w
  23. The US is not providing real time intelligence. Now near real time? Yes, absolutely. The turnaround time is as quickly as it can be scrubbed of the virtual "Made in the USA" stamps. We're talking an hour or two in some cases.
  24. Xi gets absolutely nothing but headaches out of this. China is being asked to answer for their position re:Russia at every turn and will have to decide whether to take on Russia as an economic dependent in order to keep them from collapsing completely. They've already got one nuclear armed economic husk ruled by a silly dictator (North Korea) to manage, last thing they need is another. They just announced their "special relationship" with Russia in order to have a partner against the west and now their partner has lit themselves on fire and precedent is being established in the internatio
  25. Some early signs that Russian units in the south may have outrun their logistics and are starting to stall out as well.
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