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Dow 9,000 - or less?


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11,000 is sooo April.

And now 10,000 has been breached.

 

Anyone want to predict the 9,000 threshold? ( Bull Gator is excused from this assignment, he's still tipping his hat to The Obama rally).

 

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I still remember when the Dow passed 1000 on the way up.

 

I remember people saying 1000 was not sustainable

 

I remember the same things at 2000

 

ADJUSTING FOR INFLATION...

 

It seems to me anything more than about 4000 is pretty damned high

 

 

How much is BP stock worth these days??

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11,000 is sooo April.

And now 10,000 has been breached.

 

Anyone want to predict the 9,000 threshold? ( Bull Gator is excused from this assignment, he's still tipping his hat to The Obama rally).

 

If one believes in regression to the long term mean, carving off Washington's and Greenspan's pump & dump fiscal policy, we should ALMOST be reaching DOW 9000 any day now...DOW 10,000 in a year or two. (Draw a line through this graph, dating back to 1955 or so).

 

If ignoring portions of the curve relating to GuvMint printing of money we never had (and resulting artificially low interest & borrowing rates, etc)...well, that's why we are crashing down from above rather than climbing up to 9000. Contributions of Obama's "rally" have largely been more of the same GuvMint printing press crap we've seen for decades, packed into a single year, nothing more.

 

If only looking at near term history and future, Jo-Mama appears to have answered that correctly via a link he posted on another thread. Shit hits the fan approaching or immediately following the next wave of tax increases...January 2011. If not for reactions to tax changes, there would be little or no reason for "up" days in the market lately.

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I have an idea, why don't we ask Gay-tor? Obama's cheerleader/lover

 

It's been how long since the stimulus? where the hell are the jobs? (not the non-producing type like census workers)

 

He's been hiding from his own words.

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I have an idea, why don't we ask Gay-tor? Obama's cheerleader/lover

 

It's been how long since the stimulus? where the hell are the jobs? (not the non-producing type like census workers)

 

Gaston's still hoping to be an Obama girl.

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I have an idea, why don't we ask Gay-tor? Obama's cheerleader/lover

 

It's been how long since the stimulus? where the hell are the jobs? (not the non-producing type like census workers)

 

 

http://www.businessi...stration-2010-2

 

Noble of you to make it to class.

You have been excused, if needed, so that you can formulate your latest Cathedral of Obama and to wipe your chin.

 

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I have an idea, why don't we ask Gay-tor? Obama's cheerleader/lover

 

It's been how long since the stimulus? where the hell are the jobs? (not the non-producing type like census workers)

 

Shit, you mean that the Census workers don't contribute to the economy?

 

Damn.

 

I read somewhere that every government job creates exponential economic growth. Must be true if I read it here on PA.

 

How are we going to survive as a nation if we can't rely on government taxes, currency printing presses, and spending?

 

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I have an idea, why don't we ask Gay-tor? Obama's cheerleader/lover

 

It's been how long since the stimulus? where the hell are the jobs? (not the non-producing type like census workers)

 

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-jobs-lost-in-the-bush-and-obama-administration-2010-2

So the number of people losing there jobs is slowing down yet the number of people being employed or re-employed are what?

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I have an idea, why don't we ask Gay-tor? Obama's cheerleader/lover

 

It's been how long since the stimulus? where the hell are the jobs? (not the non-producing type like census workers)

 

 

http://www.businessi...stration-2010-2

So the number of people losing there jobs is slowing down yet the number of people being employed or re-employed are what?

 

Clearly that number is what Obama wisely thinks it should be, and a tip of the hat is well deserved.

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I have an idea, why don't we ask Gay-tor? Obama's cheerleader/lover

 

It's been how long since the stimulus? where the hell are the jobs? (not the non-producing type like census workers)

 

 

http://www.businessi...stration-2010-2

So the number of people losing there jobs is slowing down yet the number of people being employed or re-employed are what?

 

Clearly that number is what Obama wisely thinks it should be, and a tip of the hat is well deserved.

 

Indeed it is to our wise and noble President.

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I have an idea, why don't we ask Gay-tor? Obama's cheerleader/lover

 

It's been how long since the stimulus? where the hell are the jobs? (not the non-producing type like census workers)

 

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-jobs-lost-in-the-bush-and-obama-administration-2010-2

So the number of people losing there jobs is slowing down yet the number of people being employed or re-employed are what?

Unknown

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Employment will be stagnant for some time to come with occasional inflections of notable employment drop offs during rounds of state, local and fed worker layoffs as municipalities and whole states go broke. It will be very difficult to grow our way out of this. We simply don't have the export horsepower per capita that we once did, and the American consumer cannot make up the difference.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/209248-bernanke-testimony-indicates-fed-still-in-denial?source=hp

 

Double dip a comin'

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Employment will be stagnant for some time to come with occasional inflections of notable employment drop offs during rounds of state, local and fed worker layoffs as municipalities and whole states go broke. It will be very difficult to grow our way out of this. We simply don't have the export horsepower per capita that we once did, and the American consumer cannot make up the difference.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/209248-bernanke-testimony-indicates-fed-still-in-denial?source=hp

 

Double dip a comin'

Keep wringing the middle class like a towel and eventually the drops stop flowing. It's been happening for a long time. Borrowed time, borrowed money.

 

I hope you are wrong, but I suspect that you're not.

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Keep wringing the middle class like a towel and eventually the drops stop flowing. It's been happening for a long time. Borrowed time, borrowed money.

 

I hope you are wrong, but I suspect that you're not.

 

amen brother, neither party gives a rat's ass about the middle class in this country.

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Employment will be stagnant for some time to come with occasional inflections of notable employment drop offs during rounds of state, local and fed worker layoffs as municipalities and whole states go broke. It will be very difficult to grow our way out of this. We simply don't have the export horsepower per capita that we once did, and the American consumer cannot make up the difference.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/209248-bernanke-testimony-indicates-fed-still-in-denial?source=hp

 

Double dip a comin'

Already here, equity markets lead employment data by about 6 months so the dip started about 4-6 weeks ago.

 

You won't find to many US companies with large inventories as yet so that implies they don't think there is a surge coming anytime soon.

 

People are still running stock down and buying effectivley on spot rather than long dated cheaper orders.

 

The second coming will really commence when rates start moving up

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11,000 is sooo April.

And now 10,000 has been breached.

 

Anyone want to predict the 9,000 threshold? ( Bull Gator is excused from this assignment, he's still tipping his hat to The Obama rally).

 

 

with the dow up 273 today sitting at 10,200 you are looking more stupid than usual.......

 

TOTH to Obama?

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Guest One of Five

11,000 is sooo April.

And now 10,000 has been breached.

 

Anyone want to predict the 9,000 threshold? ( Bull Gator is excused from this assignment, he's still tipping his hat to The Obama rally).

 

 

with the dow up 273 today sitting at 10,200 you are looking more stupid than usual.......

 

TOTH to Obama?

 

Ahhh the moron responds. You're an idiot.

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11,000 is sooo April.

And now 10,000 has been breached.

 

Anyone want to predict the 9,000 threshold? ( Bull Gator is excused from this assignment, he's still tipping his hat to The Obama rally).

 

 

with the dow up 273 today sitting at 10,200 you are looking more stupid than usual.......

 

TOTH to Obama?

Ahhh the moron responds. You're an idiot.

 

Bump

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Guest One of Five

No good news today.. the more O keeps quiet the better. I want the same thing everybody else wants: equities to stabilize and the DCM business to improve.

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It could be the beginning of the delationary period that RBS spoke about the other day. I don't know. Or it could be a demographic shift from equities to cash/fixed income. Boomers are retiring beginning this year in bulk.

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I keep hearing about deflation worries. I've only got a bachelors in economics so maybe there's more technical stuff in play.

(anyone want to chime in on that? KMc? OPD?)

 

My question is, how can the government print assloads of money and not invite inflation?

The only way that could happen, I think, is that M1 supply goes up but demand is down even more, right?

But we're seeing intl. folks flocking to the dollar because of the euro issues. If retirees switch to cash/income, their demand for M1 goes up.

I mean, shit - the US govt. is currently borrowing money for nothing...

What gives? I don't get it. Maybe I need to crack back open some of my macro and price theory books.

 

At least it's interesting to me.

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Tip O' the Hat territory?

 

2n151xx.png

 

The great fears are competitive devaluations (government driven straight from the 1930's) and just market driven devaluation of assets. People essentially rush to cash.

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I keep hearing about deflation worries. I've only got a bachelors in economics so maybe there's more technical stuff in play.

(anyone want to chime in on that? KMc? OPD?)

 

My question is, how can the government print assloads of money and not invite inflation?

The only way that could happen, I think, is that M1 supply goes up but demand is down even more, right?

But we're seeing intl. folks flocking to the dollar because of the euro issues. If retirees switch to cash/income, their demand for M1 goes up.

I mean, shit - the US govt. is currently borrowing money for nothing...

What gives? I don't get it. Maybe I need to crack back open some of my macro and price theory books.

 

At least it's interesting to me.

 

Forget the Samuelson economics book Austin. These markets don't behave rationally. The irrational exuberance of the 1990's has been replaced by the irrational pessimism of the 2010's. Fundamentals are strill driving it. I don't know why Europe doesn't let Greece default. That's a political decision. Krugman's article and the outlook of RBS are competing for attention but the end result is the same - its going to get ugly again.

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All that debt is being soaked up by the currency markets and getting parked - so while the debt is out there, is just getting soaked up. We seem to be heading to the Japan lost decade situation, but I'm not sure anyone knows how to get out of it. Demographics in the developed economies is a problem.

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We seem to be heading to the Japan lost decade situation, but I'm not sure anyone knows how to get out of it.

 

I keep hearing this one too.

I'll give you the real estate piece may come to fruition but, as I've stated, there are lots of P/E's out there that indicate stocks are generally not overinflated.

Stock prices were a large contributor to Japans problems.

We've also worked a little harder to uncover the crappy debt on the books while Japan strove to hide it for as long as they could.

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We seem to be heading to the Japan lost decade situation, but I'm not sure anyone knows how to get out of it.

 

I keep hearing this one too.

I'll give you the real estate piece may come to fruition but, as I've stated, there are lots of P/E's out there that indicate stocks are generally not overinflated.

Stock prices were a large contributor to Japans problems.

We've also worked a little harder to uncover the crappy debt on the books while Japan strove to hide it for as long as they could.

 

yea that's right, lower market p/e's indicate deflationary pricing for equities. Its a move away from an asset class.

 

You should hear the fixed income traders laugh at Obama. Its priceless.

 

Sorry,,, today's "Morning Tip O' the Hat"

 

2mn1ac5.png

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We seem to be heading to the Japan lost decade situation, but I'm not sure anyone knows how to get out of it.

 

I keep hearing this one too.

I'll give you the real estate piece may come to fruition but, as I've stated, there are lots of P/E's out there that indicate stocks are generally not overinflated.

Stock prices were a large contributor to Japans problems.

We've also worked a little harder to uncover the crappy debt on the books while Japan strove to hide it for as long as they could.

 

yea that's right, lower market p/e's indicate deflationary pricing for equities. Its a move away from an asset class.

 

You should hear the fixed income traders laugh at Obama. Its priceless.

 

Sorry,,, today's "Morning Tip O' the Hat"

 

2mn1ac5.png

 

What do the bond traders find so funny? Anything specific?

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Lots, fixed income goes beyond "bonds" I work primarily in the private side of fixed income.

 

Nobody believes Obama can pull it off.

 

They all loved Bush because he bit the bullet and ran counter to his party put liquidity in a market where there was none.

 

There are quite a few joke cans o' liquidity on the trading desks. It was 'the thing' when the govmt bailed GM and the auto industry out.

 

I didn't find it funny then an now. You don't fuck with people's jobs.

 

Anyway, one of the prevalent themes is that he talks a lot but doesn't do a damn thing.

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Lots, fixed income goes beyond "bonds" I work primarily in the private side of fixed income.

 

Nobody believes Obama can pull it off.

 

They all loved Bush because he bit the bullet and ran counter to his party put liquidity in a market where there was none.

 

There are quite a few joke cans o' liquidity on the trading desks. It was 'the thing' when the govmt bailed GM and the auto industry out.

 

I didn't find it funny then an now. You don't fuck with people's jobs.

 

Anyway, one of the prevalent themes is that he talks a lot but doesn't do a damn thing.

If, by 'pull it off' you mean advancing a progressive agenda in smash mouth political style, then he has pulled it off.

 

But, if you mean to engineer the recovery of the economy, he has no clue and I keep thinking that he does not care beyond some political calculus. The few things he could do are anathema.

 

I went back and reread your posts. You refer to deflation and markets devaluing assets. My guess is that we are of the same economic policy stripes but it is my understanding that markets really don't devalue assets. They reprice and if you decline the offer, the assets sit on your books at the same cost until the day you get a price more in your favor, if ever. Deflation is rare and of short duration. Inventory, chairs or common stocks, are not perishable. It is why low oil prices always lead to shortages. Owners will wait for a better price, if they can. It is happening now.

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Markets clear. If you're a holder whether the market devalues it or your base currency devalues the net effect is the same in a cash economy. If you're looking at it from baskets o' goods basis, then I don't know. Is a McDonald's Big Mac the same economic cost as it was years ago?

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Markets clear. If you're a holder whether the market devalues it or your base currency devalues the net effect is the same in a cash economy. If you're looking at it from baskets o' goods basis, then I don't know. Is a McDonald's Big Mac the same economic cost as it was years ago?

 

Agreed markets clear, but only at the agreed price. It doesn't force an oil well (or stock) owner to do anything. He can sell or wait. His reserve value in a deflationary period decreases as a dollar increases in purchasing power based on nothing more than time passing. Fortunately as I posted before, not much time gets to pass in this particular condition.

 

The economic cost is another kettle, but normally less than years ago.

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It's pretty obvious that the market is being brought to it's knees again because we are approaching an election. It's time for a change in Politicians. If the economy stays shaky until the 2012 presidential elections you can bet that the market manipulators are looking for someone who will do their bidding.

 

The people who really control the economy can manipulate it so we vote those in office out and get someone one else in. It's a gamble but the newly elected, I am sure are told how they got there.

 

There is such a false perception that we the people have any real control at all.

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It's pretty obvious that the market is being brought to it's knees again because we are approaching an election. It's time for a change in Politicians. If the economy stays shaky until the 2012 presidential elections you can bet that the market manipulators are looking for someone who will do their bidding.

 

The people who really control the economy can manipulate it so we vote those in office out and get someone one else in. It's a gamble but the newly elected, I am sure are told how they got there.

 

There is such a false perception that we the people have any real control at all.

Just a bit cynical there...but I don't entirely disagree. As to the joke that is "Wall Street Reform," I say that we should wait until the greedheads shit their bed again, and request reform BEFORE we ask the middle class to bail them out again.

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I say that we should wait until the greedheads shit their bed again, and request reform BEFORE we ask the middle class to bail them out again.

 

There will be no middle class by the time these people finish.

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I say that we should wait until the greedheads shit their bed again, and request reform BEFORE we ask the middle class to bail them out again.

 

There will be no middle class by the time these people finish.

There work is almost done. It's been going on since 1980, with varying degrees of fervor.

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It's pretty obvious that the market is being brought to it's knees again because we are approaching an election. It's time for a change in Politicians. If the economy stays shaky until the 2012 presidential elections you can bet that the market manipulators are looking for someone who will do their bidding.

 

The people who really control the economy can manipulate it so we vote those in office out and get someone one else in. It's a gamble but the newly elected, I am sure are told how they got there.

 

There is such a false perception that we the people have any real control at all.

 

It's pretty obvious that the current plan to expand government while beating up the private sector is bringing the market to it's knees. If the Capital in Capitalism thought that business would expand faster than Government then they would put their money where they think best. Just look no further than the government payroll since January of '09 and compare it to the private sector jobs.

 

The Obama tactic of assaulting the free markets while preaching to their constituency made for some great "yes we can" moments, but in reality it's time to stop the bullshit and let Capitalism do what it does best - expand and create jobs.

 

Further interference, regulations, mandates, and finger pointing will get us nowhere. Unless a utopian society is one's dream.

 

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our 1 pm tip o' the hat brought to you by:

 

In 2010 the year Obama is unquestionably responsible for the economy jobs are up

 

 

 

34gn7er.png

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Where's Bull Gator lately on these great economic stats and the Dow?

 

Isn't it time to honor those who have spent the last 18 months enacting Hope and Change upon the populace?

 

With all those newly hired census workers helping the jobs report.....opps, I gotta... well, I'll get back to you later about all those jobs Obama created.

Never mind.

 

 

 

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When the Dow hits 14165 you can give Obama a tip of the hat because that was the bar set during the Bush Administration. Until then praising every rise and then eating your words with every fall is getting old.

 

 

are you retarded Bush is responsible for the biggest meltdown in US history - his policy of cheap money, stupid tax cuts and a doubling of the National debt led to a bubble in US Housing and Equity markets he will be judged on the Bush lows of 6500 DOW

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When the Dow hits 14165 you can give Obama a tip of the hat because that was the bar set during the Bush Administration. Until then praising every rise and then eating your words with every fall is getting old.

 

 

are you retarded Bush is responsible for the biggest meltdown in US history - his policy of cheap money, stupid tax cuts and a doubling of the National debt led to a bubble in US Housing and Equity markets he will be judged on the Bush lows of 6500 DOW

I know this will be hard for you to grasp, but records are based on the best level not the lowest.

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When the Dow hits 14165 you can give Obama a tip of the hat because that was the bar set during the Bush Administration. Until then praising every rise and then eating your words with every fall is getting old.

 

 

are you retarded Bush is responsible for the biggest meltdown in US history - his policy of cheap money, stupid tax cuts and a doubling of the National debt led to a bubble in US Housing and Equity markets he will be judged on the Bush lows of 6500 DOW

 

the President does not set monetary policy.

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The the sake of reference.

 

djia2000s.png

Sol looking at your chart the graph goes up right when Bush cut taxes in 03 funny how that works. Now we are trying a new approach under Obama and after spending almost a trillion dollars the market still continues to fluctuate.

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you people are taking Bully Girl way too seriously.

 

He would like a tip o' the hat for Obama if the toilet flushes correctly.

The crapper here is not shutting off and is thereby wasting water. I'll give a tip o the hat to anyone that wants to spare me the joy of rebuilding it.

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you people are taking Bully Girl way too seriously.

 

He would like a tip o' the hat for Obama if the toilet flushes correctly.

The crapper here is not shutting off and is thereby wasting water. I'll give a tip o the hat to anyone that wants to spare me the joy of rebuilding it.

 

'Shit-o-the hat' I say!

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The the sake of reference.

 

djia2000s.png

Sol looking at your chart the graph goes up right when Bush cut taxes in 03 funny how that works. Now we are trying a new approach under Obama and after spending almost a trillion dollars the market still continues to fluctuate.

 

Who The F*&^k was the Wharton Management ninny who composed that graph using a logarithmic axis? Have the investment cattle at the Dow become even more unscientific than they were in the first place? ( That's so dumb.)

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I like McKabe's bearish outlook. It makes good allegory to BG.

This week's expiration means nothing. Next quarter will be the bellweather.

 

Bear? Me? Hell no. I'd love to see a Bull Market for the next forty years. Ain't gonna happen.

 

The point of this whole thing is that Obama as President has Diddly (apologies to Bo Diddley) to do with the financial health (or lack thereof) of this country.

 

Gaytor Girl has to go back to school and actually learn something instead of hanging out in Key West trolling for Transvestites.

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I like McKabe's bearish outlook. It makes good allegory to BG.

This week's expiration means nothing. Next quarter will be the bellweather.

 

you'd be foolish to bet against this market with a democratic admin in place. Reasonable people note that equity markets VASTLY outperform when a democratic president is in place

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Bippity bump.

Where's my hat?

 

KmcKabe - we all want to be bullish just not BG'ish. You are a bear right now. That's all I'm, sayin'.

 

I'm pretty sure a man with tons o' money could get really rich going in and out of Ford these days.

20% since 4th of July vacation? GTFO. "Hold on, we'll get on the boat once I put this trade in".

The P/E was under 6 for keyrists sakes. I'm dumb but why is it that easy?

 

Yesterday - "We'll go swimming at the quarry just a soon as I get this sell in."

 

I wish I had a ton o' money. I've made 10's of dollars off that stock.

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Looks like the DOW is free falling again can we say "Yes We Can" Take over any bank for any reason. I really thought the BP well being shut off would be a positive , unfortunately the regulation bill was passed, bank stocks are taking a hit along with consumer spending being down. Where is the Gator with a tip of the hat.

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Bippity bump.

Where's my hat?

 

KmcKabe - we all want to be bullish just not BG'ish. You are a bear right now. That's all I'm, sayin'.

 

I'm pretty sure a man with tons o' money could get really rich going in and out of Ford these days.

20% since 4th of July vacation? GTFO. "Hold on, we'll get on the boat once I put this trade in".

The P/E was under 6 for keyrists sakes. I'm dumb but why is it that easy?

 

Yesterday - "We'll go swimming at the quarry just a soon as I get this sell in."

 

I wish I had a ton o' money. I've made 10's of dollars off that stock.

 

I really don't want to be a bear here, I'm bullish on this country's capabilities and our future. I like Obama personally, I think he's a gifted communicator. He's had to do things Bill Clinton would have never had the guts to do, I don't know why he's turning to that person. Its a tough job and I certainly wouldn't want it. I genuinely would want to share a BBQ with him and although I've met one of the Clinton's I would not have said the same for them. Leader's lead by principal, not by polls. That's what we elect them for.

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instead of hanging out in Key West trolling for Transvestites.

 

 

 

You have a problem with that? Not that Gaytor has much of a stimulus package so to speak.

 

 

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