What Caused the Mac Race Fatalities?

[alcoholfunnycar 1]

24 Macs has had his fun. But this is a more balanced poll, and hopefully will lead to a better discussion.

[big chicken 1]

Well, staying home would have made it ultimately preventable but not sure that that's necessarily the answer.

[us7070 294]

they chose a boat that was not suited to conditions that, while unusual, are not unheard of.

 

this summer in particular, has been characterized by quite a lot of violent convective activity, which has been producing squalls like this one (and worse) all over central and southeast US.

 

99 times out of 100, they would have gotten away with this.., but unfortunately this time they didn't.

 

it's not my intention to offend anyone, but that's how i feel based on what i have learned so far.

 

 

 

the poll is dumb and i'm not voting in this one.

[alcoholfunnycar 1]

Combo, preventable.

 

The investigation is only starting, but regardless of what exactly happened, it's clear this type of boat probably won't be doing Macs in the future. CYC is almost certain to require a lower limit on LPS, this will add cost for owners to do incline tests, or will be guesstimated off ORR sistership certificates. Boat that are on the bubble will need to do work to get an invite. Hopefully sport boats and multihulls won't be the baby thrown out with the bathwater.

 

CYC will have to do some explaining (to insurers) for why they don't use ORC categories and have taken on the liability to write their own MSR when an option like adopting ORC Cat. 3 is available.

 

 

[Doug Lord 1,219]

Macs fun, now your fun! All of it nonsensical without the facts of the investigation. But in the spirit: on the front page it was reported that the Sea Cart 30 beat all multihulls and all monos save 2. 30' waterline on a multihull that we all know can capsize. In the same race as Wingnuts. Congratulations to them. But don't even think about saying Wingnuts should be banned!!!!

Design improvements maybe. But treating this boat as a pariah-hell no.

[alcoholfunnycar 1]

they chose a boat that was not suited to conditions that, while unusual, are not unheard of.

 

this summer in particular, has been characterized by quite a lot of violent convective activity, which has been producing squalls like this one (and worse) all over central and southeast US.

 

99 times out of 100, they would have gotten away with this.., but unfortunately this time they didn't.

 

it's not my intention to offend anyone, but that's how i feel based on what i have learned so far.

 

 

 

the poll is dumb and i'm not voting in this one.

 

Sounds like a combination of factors, but ultimately bad luck.

[alcoholfunnycar 1]

Macs fun, now your fun! All of it nonsensical without the facts of the investigation. But in the spirit: on the front page it was reported that the Sea Cart 30 beat all multihulls and all monos save 2. 30' waterline on a multihull that we all know can capsize. In the same race as Wingnuts. Congratulations to them. But don't even think about saying Wingnuts should be banned!!!!

Design improvements maybe. But treating this boat as a pariah-hell no.

 

Lack of facts. True.

 

Not saying it should or shouldn't be banned. Either way, that is what is going to happen.

[joneisberg 5]

I wish one of these silly polls would offer the choice "Don't Know" or "Insufficient Information Available at This Point", then I might actually consider casting a vote...

 

I have a pretty strong opinion, but it is only an opinion... Expressing and sharing such opinions here can lead to some valuable discourse and enlightenment, but such is nothing more than speculation at this point, and the only Answers to the question will come with the passage of time...

[yisitalwaysraining 2]

Ehat conditions do you plan for? Worst ever? 90th percentile? average.....If you ipck worst ever then all boats would have to sustain a 100mph blow ifor an hour. Probably not...Given the factors at play here, both wind and wave period, any chenge to exclude this type of boat would have to exclude multihulls as well, and that ain't going to happen. Some designs don't behave well with a heel angle over 90deg, this is one of them but by far not the only one. It's reasonable to expect that wind flowing around the holl played a significant factor in flipping it over, and applying that is not something that's part of the current model. Assessing my boat on how itt behaves when I push the stick over (an incline test) will not account for what happened here,

Every boat has it's features, some of which will kill you under the wrong circumstances. You want a car that will do well in a crash, get a Suburban, go fast: Ferrari, get high milage; an Aveo, just don't let my Suburban meet your Aveo at 50mph....They're all good, and they all will fail you in the wrong conditions..

Some days bad shit happens to good people...and this was one of them..

[Heriberto 35]

I wish one of these silly polls would offer the choice "Don't Know" or "Insufficient Information Available at This Point", then I might actually consider casting a vote...

 

I have a pretty strong opinion, but it is only an opinion... Expressing and sharing such opinions here can lead to some valuable discourse and enlightenment, but such is nothing more than speculation at this point, and the only Answers to the question will come with the passage of time...

 

Good points. But in some ways it begs the question of when do you have enough information to form an opinion that you can share without speculating? Even given that we don't know all the facts, you yourself say you already have a strong opinion. Isn't that enough? We probably never will know ALL of the answers.

 

Contrary to popular belief, I was saying from the beginning that I think it is useful and maybe even possible to have a good discussion about what happened that was respectful of the individuals involved. Maybe the time isn't right, I don't know, maybe you are right we don't have enough facts yet either.

[us7070 294]

they chose a boat that was not suited to conditions that, while unusual, are not unheard of.

 

this summer in particular, has been characterized by quite a lot of violent convective activity, which has been producing squalls like this one (and worse) all over central and southeast US.

 

99 times out of 100, they would have gotten away with this.., but unfortunately this time they didn't.

 

it's not my intention to offend anyone, but that's how i feel based on what i have learned so far.

 

 

 

the poll is dumb and i'm not voting in this one.

 

Sounds like a combination of factors, but ultimately bad luck.

 

no, that's not what i meant.

[isma 17]

Macs fun, now your fun! All of it nonsensical without the facts of the investigation. But in the spirit: on the front page it was reported that the Sea Cart 30 beat all multihulls and all monos save 2. 30' waterline on a multihull that we all know can capsize. In the same race as Wingnuts. Congratulations to them. But don't even think about saying Wingnuts should be banned!!!!

Design improvements maybe. But treating this boat as a pariah-hell no.

 

Lack of facts. True.

 

Not saying it should or shouldn't be banned. Either way, that is what is going to happen.

 

There is a precedent. Following two multihull capsizes (I believe 2002 and maybe 2005) with no fatalities, CYC established metrics related to stability for multihull inclusion. They will institute a stability index minimum for the monos...they have to.

[Jon Thomas 0]

"What Caused the Mac Race Fatalities?"

 

From what I have learned, the wind flipped the boat, and it landed on top of the two, crushing their skulls, (they did not drown and were probably killed instantly). There are links in the other thread to several articles and interviews including an incredible storm video, (it's a wonder there weren't more casualties).

[Windchaser 0]

"What Caused the Mac Race Fatalities?"

 

From what I have learned, the wind flipped the boat, and it landed on top of the two, crushing their skulls, (they did not drown and were probably killed instantly). There are links in the other thread to several articles and interviews including an incredible storm video, (it's a wonder there weren't more casualties).

 

I don't think the question was intended to elicit the exact cause of death itself but what factors contributed to the accident. In my opinion I feel the design of the boat significantly contributed to it flipping over in the first place. Based on my experience in Mac races and sailing on Lake Michigan I personally would not do the race on a boat like this. I am not saying anything about banning it. That decision will be up to CYC and the race committee. I am simply saying I would not feel safe on this boat in the Mac race. I have been in three Mac races where similar conditions have occurred where an accident like this would be fairly likely to occur on a boat like Wingnuts. Given that is over 15% of the races I have done I feel that the odds of encountering these conditions are high enough to warrant not sailing on a similarly designed boat.

[Heriberto 35]

I think the question is deeper than the exact mechanism that caused their injuries and deaths. Apparently current reports say they died of head injuries and didn't drown, but what caused that? Capsizing? If so, then we are right back to why the boat capsized. Were they hit by the boom? If so, why were they hit by the boom? Did it break free somehow? Not secured? Did anybody see what happened? What about capsizing in general? The other six escaped without injury, but given a different set of circumstances, they were lucky to not have drowned or been separated from the boat and struck by another boat or died of hypothermia. Then there is the liability and cost of SAR.

 

Not all the facts are known, and may never be known, but in the not too distant future, decisions are going to get made by CYC regarding next year's race. I think given the known facts, and people's individual outlook and tolerance for risk/responsibility, different, reasonable people could make reasonable arguments for any one of the options laid out above.

 

I haven't formed a strong enough opinion to vote.

[us7070 294]

whether the capsize was directly responsible for their deaths or not, may be relevant for the poll..., but it won't change my opinion about the suitability of the boat for this race.

 

a boat that capsizes easily, and then stays inverted for hours..., is not a good boat for offshore or distance races - particularly those that are overnight and many miles from land.

[Phoenix 2]

I asked a friend of mine whit tons of offshore hours and an enviable one design resume if he knew anything about the boat. I also said that it looked like fun and at his age I might have gone on a similar boat. I was told that even back when I was drinking I would not have considered it. Enough for me.

[12345 74]

It will sure be nice when people stop posting meaningless polls about an accident that absent of real hard facts can only produce guesses as to what happened.

[Jon Thomas 0]

"What Caused the Mac Race Fatalities?"

 

From what I have learned, the wind flipped the boat, and it landed on top of the two, crushing their skulls, (they did not drown and were probably killed instantly). There are links in the other thread to several articles and interviews including an incredible storm video, (it's a wonder there weren't more casualties).

 

I don't think the question was intended to elicit the exact cause of death itself but what factors contributed to the accident.

 

 

 

Sorry, after reading the title, I thought he was being specific. Why the second thread then?, (the first long thread was also about general factors). Maybe this thread should be about "facts" that we have, and links to interviews with witnesses, coast guard, etc. (It would be nice to have all the links in one spot). Has there been any interviews with the Sociable crew, or the guys rescued on WingNuts?

[DogBalls 11]

getting involved with this poll is like protesting the NYYC Race committee or bitching to your mother in law

[puddin 0]

Last I heard, it was head trauma that caused the fatalities, but it's not on the list.

[Delta Blues 3]

Opinion polls are what they are, just seeking opinion.

 

Reportedly some committee is getting set up to review this. Presumably they will look at the weather, boat, crew, USCG, getting copies of the autopsies, probably interview members of Wing Nuts and Sociable and other data.

 

Root cause analysis rarely finds on item as the cause, usually it is multiple items that causes these things.

 

So why not retitle these opinion polls "What do guess that the review committee will come up with as the cause of these fatalities?"

[bwana 1]

Macs fun, now your fun! All of it nonsensical without the facts of the investigation. But in the spirit: on the front page it was reported that the Sea Cart 30 beat all multihulls and all monos save 2. 30' waterline on a multihull that we all know can capsize. In the same race as Wingnuts. Congratulations to them. But don't even think about saying Wingnuts should be banned!!!!

Design improvements maybe. But treating this boat as a pariah-hell no.

 

Lack of facts. True.

 

Not saying it should or shouldn't be banned. Either way, that is what is going to happen.

 

There is a precedent. Following two multihull capsizes (I believe 2002 and maybe 2005) with no fatalities, CYC established metrics related to stability for multihull inclusion. They will institute a stability index minimum for the monos...they have to.

 

+1

[NoStrings 17]

We had a Wylie Wabbitt disappear with her crew on the Boreas Race many moons ago. Our local RC's quickly came to the decision that the Wabbitt wasn't suited for offshore racing, and as a result, they don't get to race offshore...period.

[Dorado 713]

We had a Wylie Wabbitt disappear with her crew on the Boreas Race many moons ago. Our local RC's quickly came to the decision that the Wabbitt wasn't suited for offshore racing, and as a result, they don't get to race offshore...period.

 

 

 

 

Yup, that was a sad day. And I don't recall much argument about the Wabbit ban.

 

There was a pretty serious discussion about tethers at the SCYC after that as people speculated that the boat might have dragged them down by their harnesses.

 

Who knows.

 

But I do know is that on the previous year's Boreas we pitchpoled a SC27 about 8 miles off of Pigeon Pt

 

and lost Bob White off the back. If he hadn't been tethered on,we probably would have never seen him again.

 

Let's all remind each other to keep those hatches secured, all the time. It's easy to overlook.

[Polaris 48]

Macs fun, now your fun! All of it nonsensical without the facts of the investigation. But in the spirit: on the front page it was reported that the Sea Cart 30 beat all multihulls and all monos save 2. 30' waterline on a multihull that we all know can capsize. In the same race as Wingnuts. Congratulations to them. But don't even think about saying Wingnuts should be banned!!!!

Design improvements maybe. But treating this boat as a pariah-hell no.

 

Wingnuts could use a new keel (link below). It will also make it competitive as it gets hammered for its light DSPL of 3800 under ORR. The bulb on this keel is roughly 2K. It would make her much more stable, they could get rid of 2 crew as well.

 

http://www.marskeel....ads/synergy.pdf

[MR.CLEAN 3,912]

Macs fun, now your fun! All of it nonsensical without the facts of the investigation. But in the spirit: on the front page it was reported that the Sea Cart 30 beat all multihulls and all monos save 2. 30' waterline on a multihull that we all know can capsize. In the same race as Wingnuts. Congratulations to them. But don't even think about saying Wingnuts should be banned!!!!

Design improvements maybe. But treating this boat as a pariah-hell no.

 

Wingnuts could use a new keel (link below). It will also make it competitive as it gets hammered for its light DSPL of 3800 under ORR. The bulb on this keel is roughly 2K. It would make her much more stable, they could get rid of 2 crew as well.

 

http://www.marskeel....ads/synergy.pdf

I learned today, from Meade Gougeon (during his speech at the memorial ceremony) that the Gougeons and Morleys increased the keel's weight from 1200# to over 1500#. Combined wth switching the rig from alloy to carbon, the increase in stability was substantial. Morley told me that the gust that knocked them down and held them down was peculiar in both its strength and more importantly, its duration. That being said, it was a mellow knockdown, and he has no idea what caused the head injuries that most likely killed his brother and Mark's girlfriend, but it was most definitely not some kind of ultra-quick violent knockdown.

 

In other words, give it a rest.

[bwana 1]

Macs fun, now your fun! All of it nonsensical without the facts of the investigation. But in the spirit: on the front page it was reported that the Sea Cart 30 beat all multihulls and all monos save 2. 30' waterline on a multihull that we all know can capsize. In the same race as Wingnuts. Congratulations to them. But don't even think about saying Wingnuts should be banned!!!!

Design improvements maybe. But treating this boat as a pariah-hell no.

 

Wingnuts could use a new keel (link below). It will also make it competitive as it gets hammered for its light DSPL of 3800 under ORR. The bulb on this keel is roughly 2K. It would make her much more stable, they could get rid of 2 crew as well.

 

http://www.marskeel....ads/synergy.pdf

I learned today, from Meade Gougeon (during his speech at the memorial ceremony) that the Gougeons and Morleys increased the keel's weight from 1200# to over 1500#. Combined wth switching the rig from alloy to carbon, the increase in stability was substantial. Morley told me that the gust that knocked them down and held them down was peculiar in both its strength and more importantly, its duration. That being said, it was a mellow knockdown, and he has no idea what caused the head injuries that most likely killed his brother and Mark's girlfriend, but it was most definitely not some kind of ultra-quick violent knockdown.

 

In other words, give it a rest.

 

Clean, where ya been? Could've used your weight on this and that other ridiculous thread from the giddy up. Thanks for providing some needed adult supervision.

 

Your fan,

 

Bwana

[~HHN92~ 123]

I learned today, from Meade Gougeon (during his speech at the memorial ceremony) that the Gougeons and Morleys increased the keel's weight from 1200# to over 1500#. Combined wth switching the rig from alloy to carbon, the increase in stability was substantial. Morley told me that the gust that knocked them down and held them down was peculiar in both its strength and more importantly, its duration. That being said, it was a mellow knockdown, and he has no idea what caused the head injuries that most likely killed his brother and Mark's girlfriend, but it was most definitely not some kind of ultra-quick violent knockdown.

 

In other words, give it a rest.

 

Thanks for sharing this.

 

I wonder if they contacted OH about the mods. I am sure he would have been receptive to aid in their efforts. I have heard him talk about working with folks on a variety of his boats.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MR.CLEAN 3,912]

Keep it real folks.