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Sailing around the world in a San Juan 24


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24 minutes ago, RKoch said:

No. He's saying he needs to turn more SW, and not continue more west.

He also said...Good Night... w/ 154 miles? to go... would you tie off the helm and sleep?  He's a floating Coconut...

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Quixote An amazing resemblance... "The story follows the adventures of a Russian noble (hidalgo) named Rimas who reads Kon Tiki so many times that he loses

I thought I posted several paragraphs with pictures last night but when I checked in this morning, they were gone! So either the post was taken down or I forgot to hit "Save" (it was late and I was ti

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2 hours ago, woolly said:

Well, he's missed Zephyr Reef, but he now wants to go West - missing Fijii & wrecking on Vanuatu instead????

Will Rimas have his "come to Jesus" moment on Pentecost Island.......?

 

wait.....what.....?

sheep1.jpg

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Having seen how he approached to 1-2 nm from Am Samoa, and how he dodged the "lake island", I´m prepared to give Rimas some limited nautical abilities:

- he can beam reach

- he can put the boat ROUGHLY (say less than 10 miles) where he wants it. He can interpret a compass.

- he knows the danger of a lee shore

- he knows the danger of not being able to stop (no engine, no anchoring, no upwind)

the proof is how he approaches a place he wants to land on, but not if it is DDW, and then starts calling for a tow, but keeps his distance. Lets see what he does now if he gets the chance to actually reach Fiji 

 

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14 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

In the past he has had,it seems, excellent results and response to his call for help/tow....first his call must be heard and second the response will be on 3rd world island time...it'll be hard for him to factor the slow response time as he needs to be 3-5 NM from the nearest VHF...who knows how far away the Fiji CG boat is and if civilian help will respond as he anticipates .....

I DIDN´T include in the list, the knowledge of VHF ranges! :D

on the other hand, he has a relay station in San Francisco, it seems...

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Rimas
Jul 27, 201711:15:45 PM
 
I i would like to soy good night. From my boat island lamolamo 154 miles but nneed for to to turn to southwest i do not want i a continue more to to the west 
Speed: 3.74 mph Course: W
Elevation: 14.34 ft. Batt: Low
Lat: -15.846630 Lon: -177.215781

------------------

So he needs to turn SW, he doesn't want to go more west, yet his course is west and he is going to bed. That should help :). In the morning it will all magically be better. I can see his need for a tiller (photo ops, something to hang to, to pretend you are sailing), but why bother having a rudder? It's just added weight and slows ya down.

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3 minutes ago, Varan said:
Rimas
Jul 27, 201711:15:45 PM
 
I i would like to soy good night. From my boat island lamolamo 154 miles but nneed for to to turn to southwest i do not want i a continue more to to the west 
Speed: 3.74 mph Course: W
Elevation: 14.34 ft. Batt: Low
Lat: -15.846630 Lon: -177.215781

------------------

So he needs to turn SW, he doesn't want to go more west, yet his course is west and he is going to bed. That should help :). In the morning it will all magically be better. I can see his need for a tiller (photo ops, something to hang to, to pretend you are sailing), but why bother having a rudder? It's just added weight and slows ya down.

 

Not much out there.  

18 hours ago, MauiPunter said:

 

2017-07-28_10-13-55.jpg

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10 minutes ago, MisterMoon said:

Does anyone have a clue what he's talking about when he says "Island Lamolamo"? The closest island to him looks like a deathtrap, not a as bad as Donut Is., but a deathtrap for Rimas none the less. 

 

I think he's referring to another name for Vanua Balavu Island, to the south -- and upwind -- of his position.  Why that island, who knows.  I hope he zooms in on his Delorme as most of those outlying "islands" are really reef-lined atolls.

Trim your sails, Rimas.  Trim.

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3 hours ago, SailBlueH2O said:

at this rate he'll be approaching late in the day,if it's a sunny day he'll have the sun in his eyes and glare on the water making it very difficult to see the out lying reefs.... or worse landfall early one night....will he stand off until daylight ?

Your point about the time of day Rimas approaches is a good one.  With his lack of skills, he will have no control over this.  It will affect not only visibility of reefs, etc..., but might very well affect the response of the rescue concierge service.   How will they react to a late night call in high seas?  If Rimas is quickly drifting past Fiji, a rescue crew might have trouble finding him, even if they try.  An extraction under those conditions would be dangerous too.

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1 hour ago, AlienBowman said:

1st atoll to hit/miss is Qelelevu.

   
 

 

I threw this together in Excel pretty quick and got to get back to work.  I think it's right:

 

BenWynn Rimas Grounding Calculator
     
Last Fix 7/28/17 6:15 AM   GMT
Fiji: 7/28/17 6:15 PM   Local
     
Target: Qelelevu  
Distance: 113   nm
Speed: 3   kts
Hrs to Target: 38   hr
Impact: 7/29/17 8:15 AM   Local

 

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1 minute ago, SailBlueH2O said:

Something seems off as he has not gotten 113NM close to any main island Fiji yet...I think it was 153 NM last ping

Thanks,

BenWynn Rimas Grounding Calculator
     
Last Fix 7/28/17 6:15 AM   GMT
Fiji: 7/28/17 6:15 PM   Local
     
Target: Qelelevu  
Distance: 130   nm
Speed: 3   kts
Hrs to Target: 43   hr
Impact: 7/29/17 1:15 PM   Local
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40 punters 

cje - 28 July 0001

McKarma - 29.July 1100

PBD -29.July 1200

cgriff - 29.July 1800

HypoToad - 29.July 2200

CruiserJim - 29.July 2300

Tom -    29.July 0000 

finding41 - 29.July 0300

Benwynn - 30.July 0200

Donovan - 30.July 0600

Moderate - 30.July 1800

Aloha27 - 31.July 0600

RKoch - 31.July 1600  

Woolley - 31.July 1742

Bythelee - 32.July 0001 

Tatters - 1.Aug 2300

Capt.Bligh -2.Aug 1500 NYC time

Varan - Aug 2, 10:40am local ? (UTC -7)

Bittergnat -2.Aug 0900

Groundhog - 2.Aug 1600 

6924 - 2.Aug 2300 

bigrpowr - 3.Aug 0600

Sundreamer -3.Aug 1700

bugger - 4.Aug 0420

Cal20 - 4.Aug 1100 

Trickypig -4.Aug 1130

MisterMoon -4.Aug 1400

Madohe -4.Aug 2300

Volkeno - 5.Aug 1200

SomebodyElse - 5.Aug 1322

CaptPirateDog - 8.Aug  0800 

Shaggy -10.Aug Solomons! 

Rawlings - 15.August 1310 local time New Caladonia

Nice! - 21.Aug 1200 last transmission then vanish 

N1772 -25.Dec Lord Howe Island  0900

sailblueH20 - clean miss and fly by 

mauipunter - swing & miss & wreck 

DtM - Miss then Oz 

Lark - sometime in 2020 

kingstonsail - opt out of betting due to a higher authority

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I'm going with my original calculation. 

  Qelelevu is an atoll east of Fiji, and about 130 statute miles from Rimas' last position, or 113 nautical.

 

BenWynn Rimas Grounding Calculator

     
Last Fix 7/28/17 6:15 AM   GMT
Fiji: 7/28/17 6:15 PM   Local
     
Target: Qelelevu  
Distance: 113   nm
Speed: 3   kts
Hrs to Target: 38   hr
Impact: 7/29/17 8:15 AM   Local

 

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I think I finally got it:

BenWynn Rimas Grounding Calculator

     
Last Fix 7/28/17 6:15 AM   GMT
Fiji: 7/28/17 6:15 PM   Local
     
Target:  Qelelevu  
Distance: 113   nm
Speed: 3   kts
Hrs to Target: 37.7   hr
Impact: 7/30/17 7:55 AM

  Local

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He reaches Vanua Levu in the dark:

 

BenWynn Rimas Grounding Calculator
     
Last Fix 7/28/17 6:15 AM   GMT
Fiji: 7/28/17 6:15 PM   Local
     
Target: East tip of Vanua Levu
Distance: 159   nm
Speed: 3   kts
Hrs to Target: 53.0   hr
Impact: 7/30/17 11:15 PM   Local
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Naptime will force him past.

Going to be some weather tomorrow that will push him past and something brewing to the south IDK what. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-18.03;-177.97;6&l=rain-3h&t=20170730/00

Will be able to collect some fresh water and flying fish with the empty cookie tins. MaGyer a lamp out of a candle, halyard and a cherry jar to attact the flying fish.

Onward, to North Korea, Japan and on to Alaska.

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11 minutes ago, Norse Horse said:

 Onward, to North Korea, Japan and on to Alaska. ...........OBLIVION!?

NAHHH,, ....hard to believe the 'blessings'** will run out for the cockroach.

 

                           **....out$ide intervention$,,, calls for a tow.

Rimas needs to know, or do absolutely nothing,,, so long as the Delorme keeps working. :mellow:

 

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26 minutes ago, benwynn said:

I think I finally got it:

BenWynn Rimas Grounding Calculator

     
Last Fix 7/28/17 6:15 AM   GMT
Fiji: 7/28/17 6:15 PM   Local
     
Target:  Qelelevu  
Distance: 113   nm
Speed: 3   kts
Hrs to Target: 37.7   hr
Impact: 7/30/17 7:55 AM

  Local

I'm liking this, only 3 hours before my punt of 7/29 2300 GMT.

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31 minutes ago, Norse Horse said:

Naptime will force him past.

Going to be some weather tomorrow that will push him past and something brewing to the south IDK what. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-18.03;-177.97;6&l=rain-3h&t=20170730/00

Will be able to collect some fresh water and flying fish with the empty cookie tins. MaGyer a lamp out of a candle, halyard and a cherry jar to attact the flying fish.

Onward, to North Korea, Japan and on to Alaska.

Showing 30 knots from SE, covering The Rimas' approach to the Fijis.  Has he ever had weather like this before?  Will the Mimsy be up to it or will we just have no more Delorme pings, ever?

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There appears to be a gap between the northern Lau Group and the main island, lying on a NE-SW axis. It looks like he's hoping to make that. From the NE entrance to the gap to Savusavu still appears to be 50-60 miles....I don't see Rimas staying at the helm for 24+ hours. If he begs for a tow outside, he's not only outside vhf range, but also outside tow range, it would be well over 24 hours to go there, locate him, and a long slow tow in. Rimas  has to get within 25 miles of Savusavu for a tow to come get him, imo. IDK if he can do it, esp if the wind builds and goes SE like it looks might happen. I think the only 'safe' conclusion for Rimas is if Jean flies there, charters a boat and crew, and goes out after him...much like he did in SF. Or Rimas pushes the button and is pulled off the boat.

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3 minutes ago, AlienBowman said:

Showing 30 knots from SE, covering The Rimas' approach to the Fijis.  Has he ever had weather like this before?  Will the Mimsy be up to it or will we just have no more Delorme pings, ever?

Or what are the chances that it's an RC sailboat plying the Ocean Blue?

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5 minutes ago, AlienBowman said:

Showing 30 knots from SE, covering The Rimas' approach to the Fijis.  Has he ever had weather like this before?  Will the Mimsy be up to it or will we just have no more Delorme pings, ever?

Boat can take it, sails probably won't. Rimas will just go below and assume a fetal position, letting the sails flog and beat the boat apart. That's what he's previously done in stormy weather. At least he's already lost the dinghy, and no longer has to worry about that. Doubtful he can maintain a beam reach course in those conditions...boat will likely drift downwind.

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9 minutes ago, AlienBowman said:

Showing 30 knots from SE, covering The Rimas' approach to the Fijis.  Has he ever had weather like this before?  Will the Mimsy be up to it or will we just have no more Delorme pings, ever?

He went through the remmants of a curricane! how about that

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4 minutes ago, bplipschitz said:

Or what are the chances that it's an RC sailboat plying the Ocean Blue?

The hoax theory of The Rimas was floated a voyage or two ago.  It seems that enough SA'ers have met him to undercut that theory.  Too much manipulation for too little gain to be a likely scenario and this is the fourth iteration; possible, but not highly likely.

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3 minutes ago, AlienBowman said:

The hoax theory of The Rimas was floated a voyage or two ago.  It seems that enough SA'ers have met him to undercut that theory.  Too much manipulation for too little gain to be a likely scenario and this is the fourth iteration; possible, but not highly likely.

This one seems the most likely as any of them, methinks.  The next coupla days should be telling. . .

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6 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Rimas  has to get within 25 miles of Savusavu for a tow to come get him, imo. IDK if he can do it, esp if the wind builds and goes SE like it looks might happen

I am gonna go out on a limb here and say that Rimas has zero chance getting within 25 miles of Savusavu on his own.

Screen Shot 2017-07-28 at 10.40.15 AM.png

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7 minutes ago, cgriff said:

I am gonna go out on a limb here and say that Rimas has zero chance getting within 25 miles of Savusavu on his own.

Screen Shot 2017-07-28 at 10.40.15 AM.png

His only hope is hailing a passing fishing boat or workboat. There must be hundreds of such craft plying those waters

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8 minutes ago, cgriff said:

I am gonna go out on a limb here and say that Rimas has zero chance getting within 25 miles of Savusavu on his own.

Screen Shot 2017-07-28 at 10.40.15 AM.png

I think he could make the western end of Nanuku Passage on his own, if the wind doesn't fuck him. Problem is, once there he's embayed...if a tow doesn't get to him quickly, he'll blow up on a reef.

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If daylight, he might be able to manage getting around the point at Savusavu and just running into the mangroves at Nawi Island. Minimal damage, easy to tow boat off.

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1 hour ago, CruiserJim said:

 

I'm liking this, only 3 hours before my punt of 7/29 2300 GMT.

I'm adding GMT to the calculator, and it ain't working out that way.  Did I screw this up again?

Impact: 7/30/17 11:15 PM   Local
Impact: 7/30/17 11:15 AM   GMT
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49 minutes ago, Nice! said:

In 30 knots the rig could easily come down.

The only questionable part of the rig is the old standing rigging and chainplates glassed into the hull, thus not able to inspect. If they all hold, rig will stay up. His biggest problem, aside from his own incompetence, is sails and running rigging in poor condition.

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"Let It Be" - The Beatles

 

When my broken boat is pier side, dupes and marks to be stiffed

Now is time for pork pie, time to grift

For though they may be quite naive, there may be a chance they're swift

Now is time for pork pie, time to grift

Time to grift, time to grift, time to grift, time to grift

Daddy has a new boat

No more grift

 

And when the dock bills come due, it's not time to go toe to toe

Sneaking out the harbor, need a tow

I may have one more free starbucks card, time to grab a cup of joe

Sneaking out the harbor, need a tow

Need a tow, need a tow, need a tow, need a tow

No  more time to grift for dough

Found a tow

 

And when I find myself without a main sail, deep ocean swells on the shift

Hailing words of flailing, let it drift

And in the night hours of darkness, reefs and isles have me miffed

Hailing words of flailing, let it drift

Let it drift, let it drift, let it drift, let it drift

Seeking signs of rescue

I'm adrift

 

 

 

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Just now, benwynn said:

I'm adding GMT to the calculator, and it ain't working out that way.  Did I screw this up again?

Impact: 7/30/17 11:15 PM   Local
Impact: 7/30/17 11:15 AM   GMT

Should be 11 hours difference. 

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1 minute ago, benwynn said:

I'm adding GMT to the calculator, and it ain't working out that way.  Did I screw this up again?

Impact: 7/30/17 11:15 PM   Local
Impact: 7/30/17 11:15 AM   GMT

I was looking at this one you posted:

Target: Qelelevu 

Distance:113  nm
Speed:3  kts
Hrs to Target:37.7  hr
Impact:7/30/17 7:55 AM Local

Fiji is GMT +12, so 0755 in Fiji is 1955 GMT the prior day.  

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1 minute ago, CruiserJim said:

I was looking at this one you posted:

Target: Qelelevu 

Distance:113  nm
Speed:3  kts
Hrs to Target:37.7  hr
Impact:7/30/17 7:55 AM Local

Fiji is GMT +12, so 0755 in Fiji is 1955 GMT the prior day.  

Got it.  We're good:

 

BenWynn Rimas Grounding Calculator

     
Last Fix 7/28/17 6:15 AM   GMT
Fiji: 7/28/17 6:15 PM   Local
     
Target: Qelelevu   
Distance: 113   nm
Speed: 3   kts
Hrs to Target: 37.7   hr
Impact: 7/30/17 7:55 AM   Local
Impact: 7/29/17 7:55 PM   GMT
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Just now, Son of a Sailor said:

He must be sleeping in today. His is a bit past his usual first ping of the day.

Could be a rude awakening depending on where he drifted overnight.  He needs to work his way south while he can.  His first ping of the day will tell us a lot.

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5 hours ago, sail(plane) said:

Having seen how he approached to 1-2 nm from Am Samoa, and how he dodged the "lake island", I´m prepared to give Rimas some limited nautical abilities:

- he can beam reach

- he can put the boat ROUGHLY (say less than 10 miles) where he wants it. He can interpret a compass.

- he knows the danger of a lee shore

- he knows the danger of not being able to stop (no engine, no anchoring, no upwind)

the proof is how he approaches a place he wants to land on, but not if it is DDW, and then starts calling for a tow, but keeps his distance. Lets see what he does now if he gets the chance to actually reach Fiji 

 

And I would add that his drifts have provided a geography lesson about small islands in the South Pacific! How many would have known about "lake island" prior to these past few days!

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2 minutes ago, tatters said:

Could be a rude awakening depending on where he drifted overnight.  He needs to work his way south while he can.  His first ping of the day will tell us a lot.

True. if he misses Fiji the next alternative is what . . . the Solomons probably?

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11 minutes ago, tatters said:

That's my guess.  I don't believe he can make Vanuatu.

Concur. 

Edit...correction: Vanuatu is about 600 miles due east. That's probably doable for Rimas...8-10 days. Solomons are NW, about 1200 miles. Also doable, but further.

 5d9fa56de724b2c6412e2fda6026019d.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Son of a Sailor said:

True. if he misses Fiji the next alternative is what . . . the Solomons probably?

BenWynn Rimas Grounding Calculator
     
Last Fix 7/28/17 6:15 AM   GMT
Fiji: 7/28/17 6:15 PM   Local
     
Target: Solomon Islands  
Distance: 1231   nm
Speed: 3   kts
Hrs to Target: 410.3   hr
Impact: 8/14/17 8:35 PM   Local
Impact: 8/14/17 8:35 AM   GMT
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2 minutes ago, benwynn said:
BenWynn Rimas Grounding Calculator
     
Last Fix 7/28/17 6:15 AM   GMT
Fiji: 7/28/17 6:15 PM   Local
     
Target: Solomon Islands  
Distance: 1231   nm
Speed: 3   kts
Hrs to Target: 410.3   hr
Impact: 8/14/17 8:35 PM   Local
Impact: 8/14/17 8:35 AM   GMT

Solomons may be another time zone over.

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16 minutes ago, Alan Crawford said:

And I would add that his drifts have provided a geography lesson about small islands in the South Pacific! How many would have known about "lake island" prior to these past few days!

Indeed, a "huge geography" lesson!

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9 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

'tis     

Saturday, July 29, 2017 (GMT+11)

Time in Solomon Islands

So he gets in an hour earlier.  

The good news is he is just in time for din din. 

The bad news is he is just in time for din din. 

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28 minutes ago, sail(plane) said:

come on, Rimas, ping!

I have tracker fever almost as bad as with the EC or R2AK. 

There was a 13 hour gap between pings a few days ago.  So, when and if we get a ping -- after the wind and seas he's going through.  Mimsy's hull might be able to take it but not so much an old man bouncing around in the cabin in the dark.

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2 minutes ago, benwynn said:

So he gets in an hour earlier.  

The good news is he is just in time for din din. 

The bad news is he is just in time for din din. 

He IS din din.

Cannibal 1: " Hey! Is this a great party or what?"

Cannibal 2: "Sure is! I'm having a ball!"

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3 minutes ago, Varan said:

It is already the 29th there, so 30th seems unlikely.

judges say one way of winning is when he calls for a tow. it's therefore possible tomorrow, a lot depends on our hero's first ping this morning 

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3 minutes ago, RKoch said:

The lil cockroach must be sleeping in... I wonder which way the boat is drifting.

I think we should call him "Lil Buddy" - like the skipper called Gilligan.  He's about as lost as Gilligan would be without having the skipper along. And just like Gilligans Island, it's entertainment (though I do miss Mary Ann).

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8 minutes ago, CruiserJim said:

I think we should call him "Lil Buddy" - like the skipper called Gilligan.  He's about as lost as Gilligan would be without having the skipper along. And just like Gilligans Island, it's entertainment (though I do miss Mary Ann).

He's a cockroach on a coconut, at the mercy of wind and current, not able to influence his course or master of his destination. The only control over his fate he has is the decision to activate panic button on the Delorme.

I see wind right now at his location SE 25-30. I don't think he can sail SW, maybe not able to sail at all.

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21 hours ago, 6924 said:

40 punters 

 

cje - 28 July 0001

McKarma - 29.July 1100

PBD -29.July 1200

cgriff - 29.July 1800

HypoToad - 29.July 2200

CruiserJim - 29.July 2300

Tom -    29.July 0000 

finding41 - 29.July 0300

Benwynn - 30.July 0200

Donovan - 30.July 0600

Moderate - 30.July 1800

Aloha27 - 31.July 0600

RKoch - 31.July 1600  

Woolley - 31.July 1742

Bythelee - 32.July 0001 

Tatters - 1.Aug 2300

Capt.Bligh -2.Aug 1500 NYC time

Varan - Aug 2, 10:40am local ? (UTC -7)

Bittergnat -2.Aug 0900

Groundhog - 2.Aug 1600 

6924 - 2.Aug 2300 

bigrpowr - 3.Aug 0600

Sundreamer -3.Aug 1700

bugger - 4.Aug 0420

Cal20 - 4.Aug 1100 

Trickypig -4.Aug 1130

MisterMoon -4.Aug 1400

Madohe -4.Aug 2300

Volkeno - 5.Aug 1200

SomebodyElse - 5.Aug 1322

CaptPirateDog - 8.Aug  0800 

Shaggy -10.Aug Solomons! 

Rawlings - 15.August 1310 local time New Caladonia

Nice! - 21.Aug 1200 last transmission then vanish 

N1772 -25.Dec Lord Howe Island  0900

sailblueH20 - clean miss and fly by 

mauipunter - swing & miss & wreck 

DtM - Miss then Oz 

Lark - sometime in 2020 

kingstonsail - opt out of betting due to a higher authority

 

All times GMT unless otherwise noted

 

Location is defined as somewhere in Fiji Islands unless otherwise noted

 

Judges are RKoch, Ben, and GroundHog

 

First Official Ruling by Judges : "looks like 176W will do it. Once he makes a post west of that, entries are closed...unless us judges change our mind." 

Second Ruling : "....Ok, his last post was at 0417Z and its nearly 0700Z now. He was about 2 miles off, even with a ridiculously slow speed he's crossed 176W now. We know he's not going east (upwind). So I'm calling entries closed now, as he's apparently gone to sleep for the next 12 hours...."  

Entries Closed as of 27.July 0610 gmt 

 

This mean I'm to late to pick him as a permanent fixture in the Pacific Garbage Gyre?

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33 minutes ago, RKoch said:

He's a cockroach on a coconut, at the mercy of wind and current, not able to influence his course or master of his destination. The only control over his fate he has is the decision to activate panic button on the Delorme.

I see wind right now at his location SE 25-30. I don't think he can sail SW, maybe not able to sail at all.

I saw some nearby pockets on windytv forecasted to be gusting to 41 with rain.  

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