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Sailing around the world in a San Juan 24


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2 minutes ago, Cal20sailor said:

Reading too many Clancy novels.  The biggest problem in finding Rimas in heavy weather with optics is that his boat would be a white blob amongst a lot of whitecap white blobs of similar size or greater.  Good luck.  

   my points #2 and 3    and KH are real....as far as I know.....   cant be done...and further shouldn't be done...  he is where he is

 

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1 minute ago, Kingstonsail said:

   my point #2    and KH are real....as far as I know.....   cant be done...and further shouldn't be done...  he is where he is

 

I know...you shouldn't keep talking.  

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...just pondering plot twists for the future film ( maybe, The Transubtantiation of Rimas ?) Could there be a life insurance policy involved in all this, somehow?  How hard is it to spoof a Delorme?  

Fuck, Hotrod had the Act V plot twist of all time and we still haven't seen a screenplay!  

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12 hours ago, RKoch said:

Technically, a flyby exists from when he enters Fijian waters to when he leaves them. So there's not a specific time for the 'event'. As a couple punters specifically predicted a flyby with no time, they will win if this is the case.

By this definition a 'flyby' can't have a single specific time, true, but for our purposes the specific time can be when the box is opened, i.e. when we go from maybe-so-maybe-no to no-way-no-how.  Ben, what do you think?  I hope we get another ping soon and can move on.

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My rationale...

if a specific event occurs...request for tow, tow, wreck...it will have a specific time associated with it that can be determined (or adjudged). IDK how a specific time could be assessed to a flyby...which is a valid prediction given Rimas's prior history. If other judges are able to put a time stamp on it, I'm fine with that.

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16 minutes ago, captpiratedog said:

15.71S, 177.69E next ping location.........Anybody else have a better guess?

Here our guesses from about 40 hours after last ping 

Its now 56 hours so extend the arrows by 40-50 nm.  If he still drifting, he is very likely dodging reefs, rocks, and worse. A perusal of any nav chart for the area illuminate how frightening the waters are. 

winds have been 110-120 for last 15 hours

 

IMG_4958.PNG

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2 minutes ago, 6924 said:

Here our guesses from about 40 hours after last ping 

Its now 56 hours so extend the arrows by 40-50 nm.  If he still drifting, he is very likely dodging reefs, rocks, and worse. A perusal of any nav chart for the area illuminate how frightening the waters are. 

IMG_4958.PNG

Yes...but location coordinates please ...next ping will be where?

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6 minutes ago, captpiratedog said:

Yes...but location coordinates please ...next ping will be where?

If he lives, his next ping will be likely from just outside Labasa.  That would be where his handlers directed him.  

Koch thinks he'll be far out to sea

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4 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

14-46-24    177-12-22

 

29 minutes ago, captpiratedog said:

15.71S, 177.69E next ping location.........Anybody else have a better guess?

 

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I doubt he has a propane bottle on deck anymore.^_^

Rimas survived 20 ft waves in the SJ off the west coast, the remains from a hurricane. He also was washed off several times on the Alaskan LawnDart Expedition.

No reason to expect the Rawson to lay ahull any worse.

 

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24 minutes ago, 6924 said:

Here our guesses from about 40 hours after last ping 

Its now 56 hours so extend the arrows by 40-50 nm.  If he still drifting, he is very likely dodging reefs, rocks, and worse. A perusal of any nav chart for the area illuminate how frightening the waters are. 

winds have been 110-120 for last 15 hours

 

IMG_4958.PNG

Dodging makes the assumption that he has some control over his course:wacko:

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8 minutes ago, RKoch said:

I think he's just a bit north of H2Os prediction....20 miles or so. He was drifting at 270+ during the strong SE winds.

What am I missing here ?

last ping 

 

"...July 28, 2017 06:15:45 GMT

15.8466°S, 177.2158°W

Course: 256° at 2.96kts..."

 

About 56 hours ago.

 

If he drifts 260-270 at 2 3/4  knts wouldn't that put him around 16S 179W ? 

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I just checked and there's nothing new on FB.

Oddly, the only people who care what happens to Rimas seem to be here and I'm not sure if it's Rimas or the Thai hookers or just bragging rights, such as they are.

If your web designer tells you that a social media campaign must be active every single day or they will forget about you, she might be right.

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15 minutes ago, 6924 said:

What am I missing here ?

last ping 

 

"...July 28, 2017 06:15:45 GMT

15.8466°S, 177.2158°W

Course: 256° at 2.96kts..."

 

About 56 hours ago.

 

If he drifts 260-270 at 2 3/4  knts wouldn't that put him around 16S 179W ? 

The course and speed is calculated from the two last pings, it's not an instantaneous snapshot. Wind then was ESE and much less, he was able to sail 250ish. Strong SE winds hit him several hours after his last ping. I don't think he could maintain that course. I don't think he was sailing either, jib was either furled or shredded. If he tied the tiller to leeward and laid ahull, the boat would assume a position beam to wind, but make leeway about same as forward motion, so course made good would be a broad reach slowly...270 at about 1.5-2 knots. If he lashed the helm amidship, the boat would have headed downwind at a slightly faster speed...315 at 2.5-3 knots. I think the boat wandered a bit between the two.

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let's figure winds were:

 

30 hours from 140-150

30 hours from 110

You make good points, it all depends if he was in full fetal mode during those first 30 hours.  I will say during the prior couple of days he did exhibit signs of beam reaching.  If he wasn't in full fetal mode during those first 30 hours, he might have tracked 260-270 rather than 290-315. 

 Therefore, as is everything with our hero, ambiguity is the call sign.

Its a shame we will never find out the reality because even if our hero survives, he is far too incoherent to explain the details. 

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11 minutes ago, 6924 said:

let's figure winds were:

 

30 hours from 140-150

30 hours from 110

You make good points, it all depends if he was in full fetal mode during those first 30 hours.  I will say during the prior couple of days he did exhibit signs of beam reaching.  If he wasn't in full fetal mode during those first 30 hours, he might have tracked 260-270 rather than 290-315. 

 Therefore, as is everything with our hero, ambiguity is the call sign.

Its a shame we will never find out the reality because even if our hero survives, he is far too incoherent to explain the details. 

I think the wind hit him about 12 hours after last ping, until that point he probably was making 250ish at 3 knots. After the wind hit, my guess he was 18-20 hours between 270 (broad reach) and 315 (downwind). No telling what he's made good after that...wind went back to ESE and we don't know what sails are left, or if he's trying to stay near Fiji or is heading on to Vanuatu.

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8 minutes ago, RKoch said:

I think the wind hit him about 12 hours after last ping, until that point he probably was making 250ish at 3 knots. After the wind hit, my guess he was 18-20 hours between 270 (broad reach) and 315 (downwind). No telling what he's made good after that...wind went back to ESE and we don't know what sails are left, or if he's trying to stay near Fiji or is heading on to Vanuatu.

Good thinking, we aren't that different in our thoughts. 

I'm guessing he is trying to land somewhere in Fiji, he was planning to reprovision in Pago Pago, his fly by of Lake Island was also a cry for help.  At the very least his water is going bad.  

Plus, the boat must be a absolute shambles.  Even he must realize it's time to make safe harbor. 

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18 minutes ago, Blue Crab said:

This whole tattered sails issue could be cheaply resolved with a few poly tarps. They would work every bit as well the way he treats them.

.

I don't know of any sails that could be 'Rimas-proof'. He trashed a brand new RFG after getting flushed out SF Bay. He doesn't bother to cover his sails when docked to protect from UV. I don't think anything will handle the level of abuse that Rimas inflicts. Anything donated to him is pretty quickly lost, damaged, or trashed. He hasn't demonstrated the ability or will to take care of his equipment.

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That RFG probably snagged on the ladder while "tacking" or could have been taken out during the four day period when the radar reflector was banging around aloft. Also the blue tarps might be easier on the eyes. His eyes, not ours.

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1 minute ago, Chris in Santa Cruz, CA said:

In the probable line of drift in the last two days have there been shallow obstacles to avoid?

dozens if not  hundreds of hidden reefs, rocks, and other nasties 

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There is an oddly similar story from the other side of the world. A boat in mid ocean with torn sails no food and a single hander who does not want to be rescued.

RIMAS 2 ?

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12 minutes ago, Blue Crab said:

That RFG probably snagged on the ladder while "tacking" or could have been taken out during the four day period when the radar reflector was banging around aloft. Also the blue tarps might be easier on the eyes. His eyes, not ours.

No, when he was flushed out of SF there was no ladder. He left the sail up to flog in a minor storm. He wasn't able to furl it for some reason, and it never occurred to him to drop it.

ladder he borrowed in Hilo on a couple occasions, to work on mast. I don't think it left with him.

Best sail material option is the super heavy international orange dacron meant for storm sails. Makes him easier to spot by rescue agencies. It would be fun (read: challenge) to try to build Rimas-proof sails, but there's no way I'd do it for free, as materials would be expensive and there's a lot of extra labor.

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22 minutes ago, TQA said:

There is an oddly similar story from the other side of the world. A boat in mid ocean with torn sails no food and a single hander who does not want to be rescued.

RIMAS 2 ?

Looks like Dignitas are doing cruises - better I suppose than lying in a hospital bed with a (terminal) drip in your arm.

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3 minutes ago, woolly said:

Looks like Dignitas are doing cruises - better I suppose than lying in a hospital bed with a (terminal) drip in your arm.

Sounds like dementia.

cant believe the boat that rescued him had the knowledge and ability  to handle the problem. Dude was extremely lucky.

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13 minutes ago, RKoch said:

No, when he was flushed out of SF there was no ladder. He left the sail up to flog in a minor storm. He wasn't able to furl it for some reason, and it never occurred to him to drop it.

ladder he borrowed in Hilo on a couple occasions, to work on mast. I don't think it left with him.

Best sail material option is the super heavy international orange dacron meant for storm sails. Makes him easier to spot by rescue agencies. It would be fun (read: challenge) to try to build Rimas-proof sails, but there's no way I'd do it for free, as materials would be expensive and there's a lot of extra labor.

The only appropriate material for Rimas sails is driftwood.

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The Rimas 2 link:

Sad. I speculated about metabolic dementia in a couple of other cases of elderly sailors gone astray.  A couple of my relatives have gone through it  They're fine one day, then something gets off a bit.  Medication is skipped, maybe, or a minor infection that throws things out of balance.  Metabolic dementia sets in, from which point things go downhill rapidly.  It's possible to come back from it, but not easy or quick.

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It's sbout 0630 in Fiji. Partly cloudy, but I think there will be less clouds over the ocean than over the islands. He might have sufficient charge in Delorme by noon, 8pm EDT, to message. 

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3 hours ago, Uncooperative Tom said:

I just checked and there's nothing new on FB.

There is this within the last hour--some worry expressed, but Furnish shuts it down.

rimas.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Chris in Santa Cruz, CA said:

Looking like someone with a stake In his life would be calling authorities by now to see what could be arranged. Especially If all comms are down which only jean would know?

consensus here is he has a big red button on his GPS & one on his Delorme.  He is a big boy who can call when he wants to. 

No one here thinks it's moral to call SAR and risk their hides for our hero.  Our hero has abused SAR far too many times. 

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5 minutes ago, 6924 said:

consensus here is he has a big red button on his GPS & one on his Delorme.  He is a big boy who can call when he wants to. 

No one here thinks it's moral to call SAR and risk their hides for our hero.  Our hero has abused SAR far too many times. 

Delorme has an SOS button, GPS doesn't. The Delorme isn't as reliable a distress signal as an EPIRB. His vhf is going to be useless. 

Yes, Rimas has greatly abused SAR services. Doesn't mean he shouldn't be rescued in a legitimate emergency, but we don't know if there is one. Radio or Internet silence isn't an emergency. 

Moderate above is correct. Premature.

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6 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

I hope so....but I am thinking another 30 hours ...around noon Fiji time tomorrow

Tomorrow forecast to be clear. He should be able to charge Delorme by then, if not able today.

iMO, all that would be currently warranted is to contact Fiji authorities and ask them to issue a 'be on lookout for' to boats and planes traversing NW quadrant. Jean or someone may have already done that. 

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4 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

Sort of what I was thinking...that and today he'll be recovering from the prolonged weather....the interior must be a sopping mess....of course everything on deck has been punished

Yea, pretty sure he's trashed the boat.

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3 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

Thing is 20-30 with higher gusts ,while bumpy, is really nothing for any boat set up properly. If only Rimas could strive for the minimum....no... not even that for Rimas

Que Sera, Sera~~~~~is all he needs....

The waves and wind alone don't concern me, especially with the amount of sail he has up and flogging itself to bits. It's the presence of sharp pointy bits under the water that he probably wouldn't be about to avoid noticing if he was on deck (debatable that he could avoid them), but curled up in his bunk, he won't see and may not hear breaking surf.

Of course his luck being what it is, a wave would just push him over a reef and clean his hull before depositing him is a calm lagoon next to a horny divorcee on vacation with her new doctors finest tits to nurse him back to health, and that's why he hasn't recharged the Delorme.

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23 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

Thing is 20-30 with higher gusts ,while bumpy, is really nothing for any boat set up properly. If only Rimas could strive for the minimum....no... not even that for Rimas

Que Sera, Sera~~~~~is all he needs....

Conditions were rough, but barely a storm. It was a typical low pressure system...anyone putting to sea should be prepared to handle that. Pretty common in the Carribean....spent many hours with double-reefed main and a scrap of a jib. Laid ahull in a N/M40 for 18 hrs once delivering back from Bermuda. 

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I've been on pins and needles since the 27th, no Garmin poetry.  But I suspect the cloudy days, rough weather have discharged his Spot device (?).  It appears no matter which way he's drifted he's not gone aground yet, maybe in the next few days or so, or maybe a few weeks if he lucks out missing the shoals.  I'm confident Rimas will recharge his Garmin in the next few days and post.

All this poop about 25kn winds and big seas, he's essentially lying ahull and drifting a 3kn, like a cork with no sails up, easily survivable. Rimas's next mountain is to survive grounding on a reef, or actually steering close enough to a harbor to call for help.

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5 minutes ago, tatters said:

The cockroach lives!

 

Capture.JPG

Unbelievable... I still don't approve of his actions, but glad the sea didn't claim another life.. and especially that no one else risked their own wellbeing to try and rescue him..

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Glad to see he's ok, so far.  Will be interesting to see what happens now.  wI'll Jean arrange a tow in time to keep him off the reefs?  Will Rimas get scared of land and turn around?  He's setting the stage for declaring an emergency with his comment about his sails. 

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2 minutes ago, BrickTopHarry said:

I'm simultaneously relieved and annoyed.  I don't know if there is a proper word for what I'm feeling.

There's pretty much no way he can avoid running into some part of Fiji or the outlying reefs now, is there?

When he's thirsty- it rains.

When he's hungry- flying fish litter his deck.

When he needs a sail- one miraculously appears.

When he's ready to come into port- concierge service is on call 24/7.

That's just the way it is with Rimas.  Nobody wins betting against him!

 

At least the adventure (and more importantly this thread) will live on!

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6 minutes ago, BrickTopHarry said:

I'm simultaneously relieved and annoyed.  I don't know if there is a proper word for what I'm feeling.

Ambivalent....

 

And I completely agree!!!

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40 punters 

 

cje - 28 July 0001

McKarma - 29.July 1100

PBD -29.July 1200

cgriff - 29.July 1800

HypoToad - 29.July 2200

CruiserJim - 29.July 2300

Tom -    29.July 0000 

finding41 - 29.July 0300

Benwynn - 30.July 0200

Donovan - 30.July 0600

Moderate - 30.July 1800

Aloha27 - 31.July 0600

RKoch - 31.July 1600  

Woolley - 31.July 1742

Bythelee - 32.July 0001 

Tatters - 1.Aug 2300

Capt.Bligh -2.Aug 1500 NYC time

Varan - Aug 2, 10:40am local ? (UTC -7)

Bittergnat -2.Aug 0900

Groundhog - 2.Aug 1600 

6924 - 2.Aug 2300 

bigrpowr - 3.Aug 0600

Sundreamer -3.Aug 1700

bugger - 4.Aug 0420

Cal20 - 4.Aug 1100 

Trickypig -4.Aug 1130

MisterMoon -4.Aug 1400

Madohe -4.Aug 2300

Volkeno - 5.Aug 1200

SomebodyElse - 5.Aug 1322

CaptPirateDog - 8.Aug  0800 

Shaggy -10.Aug Solomons! 

Rawlings - 15.August 1310 local time New Caladonia

Nice! - 21.Aug 1200 last transmission then vanish 

N1772 -25.Dec Lord Howe Island  0900

sailblueH20 - clean miss and fly by 

mauipunter - swing & miss & wreck 

DtM - Miss then Oz 

Lark - sometime in 2020 

kingstonsail - opt out of betting due to a higher authority

 

All times GMT unless otherwise noted

 

Location is defined as somewhere in Fiji Islands unless otherwise noted

 

Judges are RKoch, Ben, and GroundHog

 

First Official Ruling by Judges : "looks like 176W will do it. Once he makes a post west of that, entries are closed...unless us judges change our mind." 

 

Second Ruling : "....Ok, his last post was at 0417Z and its nearly 0700Z now. He was about 2 miles off, even with a ridiculously slow speed he's crossed 176W now. We know he's not going east (upwind). So I'm calling entries closed now, as he's apparently gone to sleep for the next 12 hours...." 

 

Entries Closed as of 27.July 0610 gmt

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4 minutes ago, tatters said:

When he's thirsty- it rains.

When he's hungry- flying fish litter his deck.

When he needs a sail- one miraculously appears.

When he's ready to come into port- concierge service is on call 24/7.

That's just the way it is with Rimas.  Nobody wins betting against him!

 

At least the adventure (and more importantly this thread) will live on!

I'll Add:

When he needs a wind shift- he gets one!

He's very lucky he didn't fly by to the north.  Very lucky.

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3 minutes ago, tatters said:

I'll Add:

When he needs a wind shift- he gets one!

He's very lucky he didn't fly by to the north.  Very lucky.

I'm amazed he didn't drift by to the north. Dumbfounded even. How did he do it?

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13 minutes ago, 6924 said:

40 punters 

 

cje - 28 July 0001

McKarma - 29.July 1100

PBD -29.July 1200

cgriff - 29.July 1800

HypoToad - 29.July 2200

CruiserJim - 29.July 2300

Tom -    29.July 0000 

finding41 - 29.July 0300

Benwynn - 30.July 0200

Donovan - 30.July 0600

Moderate - 30.July 1800

Aloha27 - 31.July 0600

RKoch - 31.July 1600  

Woolley - 31.July 1742

Bythelee - 32.July 0001 

Tatters - 1.Aug 2300

Capt.Bligh -2.Aug 1500 NYC time

Varan - Aug 2, 10:40am local ? (UTC -7)

Bittergnat -2.Aug 0900

Groundhog - 2.Aug 1600 

6924 - 2.Aug 2300 

bigrpowr - 3.Aug 0600

Sundreamer -3.Aug 1700

bugger - 4.Aug 0420

Cal20 - 4.Aug 1100 

Trickypig -4.Aug 1130

MisterMoon -4.Aug 1400

Madohe -4.Aug 2300

Volkeno - 5.Aug 1200

SomebodyElse - 5.Aug 1322

CaptPirateDog - 8.Aug  0800 

Shaggy -10.Aug Solomons! 

Rawlings - 15.August 1310 local time New Caladonia

Nice! - 21.Aug 1200 last transmission then vanish 

N1772 -25.Dec Lord Howe Island  0900

sailblueH20 - clean miss and fly by 

mauipunter - swing & miss & wreck 

DtM - Miss then Oz 

Lark - sometime in 2020 

kingstonsail - opt out of betting due to a higher authority

 

All times GMT unless otherwise noted

 

Location is defined as somewhere in Fiji Islands unless otherwise noted

 

Judges are RKoch, Ben, and GroundHog

 

First Official Ruling by Judges : "looks like 176W will do it. Once he makes a post west of that, entries are closed...unless us judges change our mind." 

 

Second Ruling : "....Ok, his last post was at 0417Z and its nearly 0700Z now. He was about 2 miles off, even with a ridiculously slow speed he's crossed 176W now. We know he's not going east (upwind). So I'm calling entries closed now, as he's apparently gone to sleep for the next 12 hours...." 

 

Entries Closed as of 27.July 0610 gmt

We're currently at 7/30 2149 GMT. He's trying to call Fiji CG on radio (no doubt for a tow) but hasn't reached them yet. Judges will have to decide if his hail for tow counts as to attempt, or successful hail. I'm leaning towards attempt, as the precedent was set at Am Samoa. Ben, Groundhog, what your thoughts?

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Just now, RKoch said:

We're currently at 7/30 2149 GMT. He's trying to call Fiji CG on radio (no doubt for a tow) but hasn't reached them yet. Judges will have to decide if his hail for tow counts as to attempt, or successful hail. I'm leaning towards attempt, as the precedent was set at Am Samoa.

That's why there is 3 of you :) 

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Our Hero is 6 hours from Rabi Island, 5,000 people with the village of Tabwewa on north side 

"Tabwewa boasts administrative buildings, a wharf, a post office, court house, a hospital, and a guest house – the only one on the island." 

go the rimas ! even you can do this ! 

IMG_4974.PNG

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4 minutes ago, groundhog said:

Attempt counts.

The nature of round 3 of our competition will depend on what happens here.  And logically the winner of round 2 will take my place at the judges' table.

 

 

Ok. That's 2 of the 3 judges. His official message time is 7/30 20:18:15 GMT. Agreement?

if judges agree, it appears Moderate is the winner with his prediction of 7/30 at 1800. Off by only 2 hours and 18 min.

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Just now, 6924 said:

Our Hero is 6 hours from Rabi Island, 5,000 people with the village of Tabwewa on north side 

"Tabwewa boasts administrative buildings, a wharf, a post office, court house, a hospital, and a guest house – the only one on the island." 

Isn't there like a reef looking thing around 60% of the way between his most recent position and that island?

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