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Plane Missing


water ratz

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Given the enormous number of commercial aircraft in the skies at any given moment around the planet, it is truly amazing that there are not more such incidents. Prayers and hopes for the passengers on this one.....

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you would think that there would be a satellite AIS type tracking system to show flight path..

 

thats an ADS-B transponder, and we're quite a few years from implementing that in the US - let alone worldride. However, if Center or whoever they were talking to would be able to see their ADS-B signal, then they would have been able to see the standard Mode-C signal and know where they were.

 

 

Very sad case, and my suspicion is a similar cause to the trail-strike in SFO last fall.

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Indications are 35000 to the water in less than a minute. AF447 was over 3 minutes, but it was in a level attitude in a deep stall. This aircraft was either in a vertical dive or in pieces. Odd that there was no mayday call.

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Something probably caused catastrophic hull disintegration. What, time will tell.

 

Edit: There's some speculation about the RR Trent 800's on the plane. The Qantas A380 that grenaded a motor was a Trent 900, but I have no idea if the 892 Trent had the same oil piping issues as the 900 did.

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Indications are 35000 to the water in less than a minute. AF447 was over 3 minutes, but it was in a level attitude in a deep stall. This aircraft was either in a vertical dive or in pieces. Odd that there was no mayday call.

 

Where did you hear "35000 to the water in less than a minute"? That equates to a rate of decent of at least 400 mph.....assuming one minute

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The tail of the plane hits before the landing gear. Pilot error in mid flight seems less likely, but who knows. For rumors, Pprune

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-mh370-contact-lost.html

That far into the flght & with that much height there was a lot of time to radio issues before the tail struck water in sich a glideable plane.

i was alluding to the undertrained pilots who had a tail strike at San Francisco in the fall, not that these guys had a tail strike.

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The tail of the plane hits before the landing gear. Pilot error in mid flight seems less likely, but who knows. For rumors, Pprune

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-mh370-contact-lost.html

That far into the flght & with that much height there was a lot of time to radio issues before the tail struck water in sich a glideable plane.

i was alluding to the undertrained pilots who had a tail strike at San Francisco in the fall, not that these guys had a tail strike.

Ahh so undertrained pilots hit these MAS guys..

huh?

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I have seen a report that now says there were two passengers on board with stolen passports...

 

 

 

Weird - one Italian is listed among passengers, but it's a guy living in Thailand and who reported his passport stolen a few months ago ..

Stolen passports, a plane that suddenly experiences something so violent that it loses communication and then crashes ...

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I have seen a report that now says there were two passengers on board with stolen passports...

 

 

 

Weird - one Italian is listed among passengers, but it's a guy living in Thailand and who reported his passport stolen a few months ago ..

Stolen passports, a plane that suddenly experiences something so violent that it loses communication and then crashes ...

 

Aw, mikey... is this not sufficient hearsay for you to conclusively conclude a conclusion?

 

Go ahead, do it...

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Aw, mikey... is this not sufficient hearsay for you to conclusively conclude a conclusion?

 

Go ahead, do it...

 

No conclusions. Just two things that suck even worse when taken together.

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Poor bastards. I did wonder how you "lose" a 777 in this day and age with all the tech we have.

Anyone who has spent time at sea hows just how fragile our wireless communications and relays are.

 

Tech means crap when you lose your radio.

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Poor bastards. I did wonder how you "lose" a 777 in this day and age with all the tech we have.

No ATC radar coverage on "Oceanic" flights one outside of the range of coastal radars. Separation is by altitude and schedule. TCAS warning if two aircraft get close.

 

Fake passports may or may not be a factor.

 

At that point in the flight, Otto is driving and things are pretty relaxed. Unless in turbulence or other unusual flight conditions, the first crew. Response is likely to be WTF? First thing that occurs when something bad happens is the crew deals with the issue. Making a mayday call comes later. Given the limits of VHF radios, good chance that you won't be heard anyway.

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Billions on miles traveled, thousands of feet in the air, at hundreds on miles per hour, in a thin tin can; every year. It is amazing that there isn't crashes every week. Even "higher risk" airlines have a much better survival rate then the average car in a small city. Every plane crash is a tragedy, but globally all air tragedy's equal the fatalities/serious injuries that occur in US car crashes in any given month.

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Any wacko groups claiming credit for the crash?

Not yet.

 

No point jumping to conclusions- my guess it that they were criminals, but traveling for some other reason than to do nerfarious deeds.

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Poor bastards. I did wonder how you "lose" a 777 in this day and age with all the tech we have.

No ATC radar coverage on "Oceanic" flights one outside of the range of coastal radars. Separation is by altitude and schedule. TCAS warning if two aircraft get close.

 

Fake passports may or may not be a factor.

 

At that point in the flight, Otto is driving and things are pretty relaxed. Unless in turbulence or other unusual flight conditions, the first crew. Response is likely to be WTF? First thing that occurs when something bad happens is the crew deals with the issue. Making a mayday call comes later. Given the limits of VHF radios, good chance that you won't be heard anyway.

 

Nothing oceanic on that route.

 

I was thinking mainly along the line of PLB's that we use during ocean races. Surely for something as expensive as an aircraft they'd have a "holy fuck, our wing just fell off, it's a catastrophic failure, may God have mercy on us" big red button you'd hit as a last resort if you can't regain control of the aircraft. Obviously that's no use if you explode due to bombs etc. but surely if you begin a massive descent from 35,000 feet there would be something?

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In 1997 (IIRC) a Singapore Airlines subsidiary airline (Silk Air) flew into the ground in Indonesia when the pilot decided to commit suicide - is that a possibility?

 

A client of mine died on that flight.

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[snip] I would bet that Malaysian Airlines probably do not have the most experienced pilots on earth. [/snip]

From the BBC website:

 

"Weather conditions on this flight are said to have been good and the pilot, 53, who had more than 18,000 flying hours behind him, had been employed by the airline since 1981."

 

 

Also in the article:

 

"At a time as yet undisclosed, a relative reportedly managed to call one of the passengers, who was carrying a Singapore phone. Malaysia Airlines has repeatedly tried to call the same number but no ringtone has been heard."

 

Obviously not saying that the crash and the call are connected, but how high up can a plane be and still get a GSM signal?

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Took the same flight when returning home from the Monsoon Cup. 777, KL to BJS to DTW. Was also in that Bali night club a year to the day before it was bombed. I'm officially a little creeped out right now.

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Took the same flight when returning home from the Monsoon Cup. 777, KL to BJS to DTW. Was also in that Bali night club a year to the day before it was bombed. I'm officially a little creeped out right now.

 

What date? I might be able to look and see if it was the same plane.

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Sounds like a similar thing to what happened to the Air France A330 over the South Atlantic from Rio to Paris. That was total pilot error causing the crash of a perfectly flyable aircraft because of poor training and even poorer management practices dictating the use of automated systems causing a severe lack of pilot proficiency in knowing how to hand fly (manually fly).

 

Something very similar could have happened where otto was disengaged and the pilots incorrectly controlled the aircraft. I would bet that Malaysian Airlines probably do not have the most experienced pilots on earth.

 

As for the lack of communications, that's not that unusual. Pilots are meant to fly the airplane first, talk last. Our mantra is "Aviate, Navigate, Communicate".... in that strict order. IOW, get the damn airplane under control. Once under control, then go where you need to go. Then and only then do you need to talk to someone. That person 1000 miles away is not going to be able to help you when your airplane is falling out of the sky. So the radio is irrelevant at that point. That's one of the most common beginner's mistakes that professional pilots have beaten

 

out of them. If you go back and listen to the audio of Scully landing his jet in the Hudson, he is talking very little. He's got a handful of airplane that is a higher priority than the radio.

 

As to the airplane hitting the water in only 1 min from 35K feet. That's totally possible. The Air France crash I mentioned took just over 3 min from 38K feet and they had the stick in their lap in a full stall all the way until they hit the water. So they were going very slow, essentially falling like a leaf. If an aircraft suffered catastrophic structural failure like losing a wing - it could easily fall at over 400mph from 35K feet.

I wouldn't call the Air France airplane "perfectly flyable". No flight instruments, severe turbulence and solid IMC at night. Likely no visible horizon. Was the airplane fly able? Yes. Perfectly? No.

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[snip] I would bet that Malaysian Airlines probably do not have the most experienced pilots on earth. [/snip]

From the BBC website:

 

"Weather conditions on this flight are said to have been good and the pilot, 53, who had more than 18,000 flying hours behind him, had been employed by the airline since 1981."

 

Total hours doesn't necessarily mean much if 99% of it has been on autopilot. That could easily have been 17,500 hours of napping and reading books while otto was flying for 13 hours. It also depends on the safety culture of the airline as well. Was the 18K hour pilot even in the cockpit? Long haul flights often have relief crews. Again, in the case of the Air France A330 crash, the root cause was pilot error due to over-reliance on automated systems and lack of ability to interpret system cues and lack of proficiency in knowing how to hand fly the airplane. The Air France guy didn't do exactly what a <10 hour Cessna pilot knows correctly to do.... when you're slow and stalling - you push the nose DOWN to get airspeed, NOT PULL UP. The accident investigation found one of the root causes of that crash, despite the crew's supposed proficiency and experience, was lack of practice flying the airplane without the aid of automated systems.

 

The Asiana 777 that crashed in SFO last year was due to exactly the same thing. They were such automation addicts that it was a crutch for them. Take the crutch away and they fall over. As soon as the auto-land system was not working or not available - they completely missed VERY basic visual cues that even a low time student pilot in a Cessna 152 would recognize as not good. Now I'm not blaming the pilots solely for that. Much of the airline industry mandates automation for most of the flight. So pilots, by company rules, often are not allowed to hand-fly it even if they wanted to.

 

Have no clue what happened with the Malaysian air crash. But barring catastrophic structural failure, I'm placing my bets on pilot error.

 

MH has a pretty good safety rep and record.

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I hope they find the aircraft and determine what happened soon, for the sake of the families and also so the wild speculation about the cause can stop. The only thing we haven't had yet is an alien abduction theory.

 

When does the next issue of National Enquirer come out?

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Indications are 35000 to the water in less than a minute. AF447 was over 3 minutes, but it was in a level attitude in a deep stall. This aircraft was either in a vertical dive or in pieces. Odd that there was no mayday call.

 

Where did you hear "35000 to the water in less than a minute"? That equates to a rate of decent of at least 400 mph.....assuming one minute

PPRune. Based on FlightRadar24, which is not a very good source of data, but the only thing available. Why did the aircraft have a total electrical failure? Even KAL 007 that was hit by a missile had a few seconds of electrical to get a Mayday out. AF447 pilots could have sent out multiple Maydays in the time they had, but spent the time trying to recover the aircraft.

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Tickets issued consecutively as well.

 

Tickets issued out of Pattaya as well, cesspool of the area.

Hard to know what would come out of there.

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....

First thing that occurs when something bad happens is the crew deals with the issue. Making a mayday call comes later. Given the limits of VHF radios, good chance that you won't be heard anyway.

One would hope they had HF as well, time permitting.

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....

First thing that occurs when something bad happens is the crew deals with the issue. Making a mayday call comes later. Given the limits of VHF radios, good chance that you won't be heard anyway.

One would hope they had HF as well, time permitting.

 

atoyot, given your background you seem the right person to ask, as this is something I've wondered about a number of times when our at sea. If the shit hits the fan and I picked up both the HF and VHF mics, and announced a mayday into both would this work or would they interfere with each other. My logic is that the message would get out to more people in a shorter time frame than just the VHF then the HF or vice verse? The only issue i can see is the current requirement to transmit on both units simultaneously. What am I missing?

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KL airport is average for security, like a typical European hub. The flight we were on to BJS didn't have any extra barriers - that extra wall of 'international' security checks like the flights from anywhere to the US do.

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Tickets issued consecutively as well.

Tickets issued out of Pattaya as well, cesspool of the area.

Hard to know what would come out of there.

 

 

Also being reported is that the tickets connected through to other destinations, so there was no need to apply for a Chinese visa.
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Cannot imagine an Uighur traveling with Euro passport (and name, presumably). They are now saying they got one of the two on security camera, and he doesn't look Asian.

Don't know what they use stolen Euro passports for in the area, but they're indeed a hot item: when I lived in KL a friend of mine at the Italian consulate got in very hot water because she was supposed to witness a batch of old passport blanks being shredded. Instead, she told the Indian office boy to do it - guess what, a few months later one of the passports turned up somewhere ..

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Anyone who knows the security situation of this area will tell you it's about 95% that these guys were human traffic, bound for AMS for asylum. There's a laudry list of terrorists with clean passports who could step on the plane for the purpose of bringing it down. Using stolen documents is nothing but a risk increaser.

 

Supposedly around 5% of passengers on any given plane are flying with invalid documents.

 

Thailand is also ground zero for fake passports these days I hear.

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The flight that went missing for some time over the Atlantic hit the water more or less intact and sank pretty fast which was a big reason why it took so long to locate it. Though I recall they did have some communication with the pilots to indicate there was an issue in the air but it wasn't till the plane and black box were recovered that they sorted out the air speed indicator issue vs pilots getting the plane into trouble not having enough air speed and in a climb causing a cascading effect of mistakes that brought down the plane. I recall they located some debri floating in the water also.

 

No debri field would suggest that the plane hit the water intact. However! Why? Remains unknown. Terrorists taking over the plane, pilot doing something selfish, systems failures and oxygen system failure ie no one awake when the plane flew its self into the water... Who knows till they locate the plane and start sorting out what happened.

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....

First thing that occurs when something bad happens is the crew deals with the issue. Making a mayday call comes later. Given the limits of VHF radios, good chance that you won't be heard anyway.

One would hope they had HF as well, time permitting.

... If the shit hits the fan and I picked up both the HF and VHF mics, and announced a mayday into both would this work or would they interfere with each other. My logic is that the message would get out to more people in a shorter time frame than just the VHF then the HF or vice verse? ...

Hi there. I think I still owe you a beer or six. Some day...

 

No, there's no reason (assuming sufficient current supply in your batteries, etc) that you can't simulcast on any two radios, whether different bands or even the same band on two different frequencies (were there a benefit to doing it*). I think my record at the moment is three at once, two VHF high band within a different service application, plus aviation band.

 

It's not as if the RF from HF or VHF intrinsically screws with the opposite box, or, it would be messing with stuff whether the other radio was transmitting or not. Back to your point - If I had to blurt out my Lat + Lon in the last 20 seconds of buoyancy, I'd probably go for broke on both or all radios at my disposal as well. I should be so fortunate to be on a boat large enough to benefit from an HF radio!

 

:)

 

 

 

* I can envision throwing one VHF radio's DSC alarm on, while hailing voice on a redundant transceiver; that pretty much amounts to the same thing.

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pilot error.. maybe...

Catastropic loss of cabin pressure... there was this one time a a private jet took off from orlando and had catastrophic loss of cabin pressure. and flew until it ran out of fuel.

Terror- likely, but so far none of the whackjobs are scrambling to claim repsonisbility.

 

I guess the captain could have pulled a sullenberger and landed intact, only to sink with everyone onboard, AKA Airport 77

 

To be honest...I think its an Alien Grab... they swoop down. use their transporters.. and warp out...

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The flight that went missing for some time over the Atlantic hit the water more or less intact and sank pretty fast which was a big reason why it took so long to locate it. Though I recall they did have some communication with the pilots to indicate there was an issue in the air but it wasn't till the plane and black box were recovered that they sorted out the air speed indicator issue vs pilots getting the plane into trouble not having enough air speed and in a climb causing a cascading effect of mistakes that brought down the plane. I recall they located some debri floating in the water also.

 

No debri field would suggest that the plane hit the water intact. However! Why? Remains unknown. Terrorists taking over the plane, pilot doing something selfish, systems failures and oxygen system failure ie no one awake when the plane flew its self into the water... Who knows till they locate the plane and start sorting out what happened.

 

Air France 447 final report is here. http://www.bea.aero/en/enquetes/flight.af.447/rapport.final.en.php Debris field was located after 36 hours but it took a long time to find the wreckage and recorders.

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http://www.naturalnews.com/044244_Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370_vanished.html

 

Six important facts you're not being told about lost Malaysia Airlines Flight 370[/size]

The quantity of derp in that article's comments is impressive.

 

Hell, the derp in the article itself is impressive.

They were quoting the WSJ so I read it and then wondered wtf do I read the NN. Freakin Crazys!

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....

First thing that occurs when something bad happens is the crew deals with the issue. Making a mayday call comes later. Given the limits of VHF radios, good chance that you won't be heard anyway.

One would hope they had HF as well, time permitting.

... If the shit hits the fan and I picked up both the HF and VHF mics, and announced a mayday into both would this work or would they interfere with each other. My logic is that the message would get out to more people in a shorter time frame than just the VHF then the HF or vice verse? ...

Hi there. I think I still owe you a beer or six. Some day...

 

No, there's no reason (assuming sufficient current supply in your batteries, etc) that you can't simulcast on any two radios, whether different bands or even the same band on two different frequencies (were there a benefit to doing it*). I think my record at the moment is three at once, two VHF high band within a different service application, plus aviation band.

 

It's not as if the RF from HF or VHF intrinsically screws with the opposite box, or, it would be messing with stuff whether the other radio was transmitting or not. Back to your point - If I had to blurt out my Lat + Lon in the last 20 seconds of buoyancy, I'd probably go for broke on both or all radios at my disposal as well. I should be so fortunate to be on a boat large enough to benefit from an HF radio!

 

:)

 

 

 

* I can envision throwing one VHF radio's DSC alarm on, while hailing voice on a redundant transceiver; that pretty much amounts to the same thing.

 

I think we ended up pretty even in the beer department but always happy to re-visit the count some time if I make it back over.

 

That was my exact thought, i didn't see a reason not to go this way, but the mind takes many paths while sitting on a cold rail for hours on end. DSC alarms are a brilliant addition to radio comms and until you mentioned it it hadn't entered my thought process, most boats I've been on had older units which weren't DSC capable however they are becoming more and more prevalent.

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JBSF, can you explain why a debris field has not been detected? If the plane suffered catastrophic structural failure, then a significant amount of buoyant debris would be released into the sea and would presumably be visible to a very large search effort. But so far nothing has been found.

 

I have no explanation, but wondering if a more informed person would have some better idea.

 

Thanks

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I have no explanation, but wondering if a more informed person would have some better idea.

 

Certainly, someone with greater knowledge of what actually happened in this individual case would have a better idea.

 

We could have 50 "experts" here, and they'd have 49 expert opinions - each mere conjecture. But then, we have MSNBC for that.

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In terms of trash, you may be thinking of the Malacca Strait. The South China Sea / Gulf of Thailand is comparatively clear (think Koh Samui, Perhentian, Redang diving)

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Anyone who knows the security situation of this area will tell you it's about 95% that these guys were human traffic, bound for AMS for asylum.

Confirmed http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

 

Two young Iranians, poor guys

 

Poor guys? I saw nothing in that article that explained why these Iranians were unlikely to be terror suspects. It may be so, but it was lacking some serious detail. Was it the fact that they were young? Lots of young people are strapping bombs on their body and dying for allah.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/search-expands-for-missing-malaysia-airlines-flight/2014/03/11/fea6df4a-a8e8-11e3-8599-ce7295b6851c_story.html

 

I think if they were trying to escape an oppressive regime and seek asylum, then yeah, they are pretty poor. Picking this flight out of all of them? Damn.

 

Like I said, the chances are remote that anyone would risk getting possibly flagged with a false document to blow up a plane. There are plenty of believers who have clean passports.

 

There was an article about the EgyptAir 772 that caught fire on the tarmac here http://www.avherald.com/h?article=44078aa7&opt=0

 

Supposedly some wire sleeves were missing on the FO side, and the fire consumed the cockpit almost instantly. Luckily that flight was on the ground. It was found later that all of the MS 772's were like this.

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Anyone who knows the security situation of this area will tell you it's about 95% that these guys were human traffic, bound for AMS for asylum.

Confirmed http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

 

Two young Iranians, poor guys

 

Poor guys? I saw nothing in that article that explained why these Iranians were unlikely to be terror suspects. It may be so, but it was lacking some serious detail. Was it the fact that they were young? Lots of young people are strapping bombs on their body and dying for allah.

 

As for the explanation of no debris..... no clue. You would think they would find something. Assuming they had the jet on Radar when it went down, it can't be that hard to narrow down the search box. One thing I was pondering was that area is known for tons of trash in the water anyway. I was wondering if that was hampering search efforts having to go investigate every floating trash bag or other shit that Thais, Malaysians, Indos, Chinese, Vietnamese, etc throw in the water......

 

I'm still not ruling out alien abduction.

 

I'm not sure the airplane was in radar contact at that point. All I have seen is ASD-B data that stopped and the one report of a VN military radar observation. Given ground based radar horizon (other than backscatter,etc) of around 200 NM at 35,000' and a general ATC radar coverage limit of 120 NM, then this flight COULD have been out of radar contact at the time of the disappearance. I think that is why the search is expanding. Ocam's Razor and all. If it crashed along the flight path, debris would have been spotted by now. If there was a decompression/communications failure event, then an emergency descent below the radar horizon and a turn to the nearest land/field could have occurred. That widens the search area a lot.

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The theory of turning around then being under the radar to land somewhere secretly makes for good Hollywood.

 

 

what? you didn't watch thunderball?

 

lol. My brother just mentioned that literally five minutes ago.

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This is the current summary of everything happening in the FlyerTalk Wiki post. Very long.

 

 

Wikipost instructions: members may minimize or maximize Wikipost by clicking on [-] or [+] box upper right of post, and signed in members with 90 days / 90 posts on FT can edit this Wikipost to update.

Quote:
NOTE: Please utilize UTC - Coordinated Universal Time (GMT - Greenwich Mean Time, Z - Zulu time) in order to minimize confusion. Time zone boundaries are complex in the incident area, and the aircraft was crossing time zones at about the time of last contact.
WIKIPOST
Wikipost space to be used for further news BELOW, please, in standard sized font

Quote:
MH370 / codeshare as CZ748, a Boeing 777-2H6ER (-200ER), registration number 9M-MRO, en route from KUL to PEK, disappeared APPROXIMATELY 40 minutes into its journey, climbing to 35,000 ft MSL, but later apparently turning west and reported passing Khota Baru at lower level. The flight was due to arrive at PEK at 06:30 Local time (22:30 GMT) with 227 pax and 12 crew.

Link to Malaysia Airlines website

Link to MH370 Flight Incident - Malaysia Airlines - official announcement

Link to Official passenger manifest (PDF) at airline website (public record)

Per the airline, passengers' families may call +603 7884 1234 (Kuala Lumpur) / +8610 6437 6249 (Beijing) for assistance.

ADDITIONAL SOURCES

BBC tabbed article and timeline of the MH370 incident .

Wall Street Journal "5 Things to Know About Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight and Air Safety".




_73498637_china_malaysia_plane4_624.jpg
BBC area map




BiLQ_9PCEAAS39o.png
FlightRadar24 Twitter Feed
Link to last reported location of flight


Aviation Herald has possibly the best and most objective summary in general. The post was last updated on 11 Mar at 12:01 UTC, and updates have been posted in #2186.

BBC: Malaysia Airlines 'loses contact with plane'

BBC Video report

Live updates (Yahoo News Singapore)

Streaming news (WSJ)

Streaming news (The Guardian)

Press conference audio (8 March 2014)

Airspace control boundary map - post #2006.




THREAD SUMMARY
Please Edit and Update as Needed!

NOTE: While links to relevant and reasonably reliable news sources are welcome, please take a few minutes to scroll back a couple dozen posts to make sure a similar story hasn't already been posted. There have been many well-meaning posters eager to share “breaking news” that ends up having been posted by others hours before. Thanks for helping us to avoid redundancy and repetition!

flight number MH370/371 will be changed to MH318/319 starting on 3/14/14


Conditions

Sunrise in the region is approx 23:00-23:30 GMT/UTC/Zulu and sunset approx 11:00-11:30 GMT/UTC/Zulu (timeanddate | KUL and SGN)

There was no moon at the time of disappearance. Moonset at KUL was about 00:40 MYT on 08 Mar 2014 (07 Mar - 16:40 GMT).

There was no notable weather in the region. Weather is not suspected to be a contributing factor. This post reports warm water conditions and low wave heights.

Sources may appear to be reporting conflicting timeframes for various stages of the incident. However, this is likely due to confusion about time zone changes between Malaysia (last ATC contact) and Vietnam (next ATC contact) - see here for time zone boundaries. Please report times in UTC/GMT wherever possible.

It is still unclear whether the aircraft went out of radar range, or was within range but suddenly lost contact (disappeared from radar). En-route radar generally extends about 200 miles from the base station. There are significant gaps in radar coverage in this region, especially over water far from land. One FlyerTalker notes that the area where the plane became unreachable appears to be within 200 miles of radar base station KBR, however, the station would have been closed for the night at the time contact was lost. Another FT poster reports there may not be an Area Control Center radar in that area. A map of Vietnamese radar coverage has been posted in the thread.

Some sources have indicated that military radar may have been tracking the aircraft as well.

The aircraft was equipped with ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast). Barring failure of the ADS-B transponder, the FlightRadar24.com track of the aircraft may be the most accurate track we have access to. However, Flightradar24.com cannot track ADS-B broadcasts below 30,000 feet in the Gulf of Thailand, so if the plane had some type of issue forcing a rapid descent, this would not be noted in their system.

It has not been reported whether the Malaysian or Vietnamese ATC organizations have the capability to receive ADS-B broadcasts. There may be some discrepancies in the last reported positions of radar contact and the ADS-B flight track.

The Flight Data Recorder, or so-called “Black Box”, might be difficult to locate if it is underwater (sonic pinging would be attenuated). However, one FlyerTalker points out, that the Gulf of Thailand has a mean depth of 45 meters (148 ft) and a maximum depth of 80 meters (262 ft), which would make locating the “Black Box” substantially easier if the aircraft is indeed in the gulf - west of Malacca are 1524 meters (5,000 ft) depths. A Boeing 777-200 is 64 meters (209 ft) long with wing span of 61 meters (192 ft).

There have been reports that the aircraft may have initiated a turn back toward Malaysia, and indications of expanding SAR ops to west of the Straits of Malacca.

Search and Rescue Operations (SAR), Investigation

NOTE: Discussion of opinions and perspectives on SAR costs is beyond the scope of this thread. Users have been advised to shift such discussion to OMNI - see post #2047. Thanks for your cooperation.

Some 40 ships and 34 aircraft from nine different nations are engaged in the SAR operation. Local fishermen and pilots have been asked to be vigilant.

Boeing has indicated they will dispatch a team to the site. The US NTSB will be involved, France's BEA has offered, and other resources are likely to be invited to assist.

MH states last contact was with ATC whilst 120 nm off the east coast of the Malaysian town of Kota Bharu. However, Aviation Herald reports the last radar position was N6.92 E103.58.

Some posters have questioned why it took so long to engage SAR ops if the aircraft did actually disappear from radar suddenly.

Malacca Strait on the western side of Malaysia has been identified as an additional SAR area, apparently due to indications that the plane may have turned back toward KUL.

All reports of possible aircraft debris, up to and including a possible debris field off the southeast coast of Vietnam, have been discredited thus far.

A possible fuel slick identified early on has been tested and was determined NOT to be aircraft fuel.

Aircraft Background

Very experienced captain (53 yo with 18,365 total flight hours).

First officer relatively new to aircraft type (27 yo with 2,763 total flight hours).

MH has a good safety record.

In its history, the 777 aircraft type has been involved in three other hull-losses (one of which, Asiana 214, is unofficially but widely considered the result of pilot error) and is considered a safe aircraft.

This particular vessel (registration 9M-MRO, s/n 28420, line #404) had accumulated 53,465 flight hours in 7,525 flight cycles since delivery to MH in May, 2002. Maintenance last undergone Feb 23rd 2014. All MH aircraft are equipped with ACARS transmitting monitoring data automatically; no distress call or information was transmitted or relayed. The search area has been extended and includes the Strait of Malacca west of Malaysia looking at the possibility that the aircraft may have turned back and diverted to Subang (Malaysia).


was previously involved in an incident in Shanghai Pudong International Airport on August 9, 2012, when the tip of its wing collided with a China Eastern Airlines Airbus A340-600. The wing was subsequently repaired. Some FT posters have speculated that this repair may have been a factor in the current incident, however, there is no data to substantiate that claim at this time.

Disproven Reports

Some early Twitter and Facebook sources indicated that the plane had landed in Nanming, Vietnam or Nanning, China. Those reports have been disclaimed by Chinese authorities and MH leadership.

An apparent oil slick originally photographed from a plane overflying area waters has been lab-tested and was determined NOT to be aircraft fuel.

Debris observed near the point of last contact was originally thought to be an aircraft door. This has been determined to be inaccurate.

Reports of a possible life raft have been determined to be inaccurate.

Reports of another pilot contacting MH370 have been discredited (source:AvHerald).

Reports of a debris field in the South China Sea sighted by a passing CX flight have been discredited (source: http://on.wsj.com/1nbi4p0)

Reports of passenger cell phones still ringing when called are almost certainly an artifact of international telephony - see explanation by one FTer at post #1832.

Be careful about relying on aircraft position data from sites like FlightRadar24, FlightAware, and others. Public access to radar data in the region is not reliable, and erroneous readings may be present on some sites. The aircraft most likely did not climb to 49,500 feet as some site may indicate, as that would be physically impossible. The aircraft may or may not have made turns/zig-zags/etc. shortly before disappearing, but please avoid raising these issues in the thread, as they have been discussed already, and the data is not accurate enough to be relied on.

Other speculation (terrorist activity, shot down, etc.) has been mentioned in the thread but currently has no basis, and is not appropriate for this thread. Please observe the moderator note at the beginning of this wiki.

Passports and Airport Security Issues

Two passengers listed on the manifest as being an Austrian and an Italian, were apparently traveling on stolen passports. The true passport holders were not on the flight. Both are alive and well. Both reported their passports stolen in Thailand within the last year or two, confirmed by their respective countries and Interpol.

The true identity of one travelling with the stolen Austrian passport has now been established at a news conference on Tuesday, March 11, 2014 by Malaysian police chief Khalid Abu Bakar. Both tickets were purchased one day before the flight as China Southern Airlines codeshares through a travel agent in Thailand. The tickets were numbered sequentially, but several posters have pointed out that this would not be uncommon with codeshares and/or tickets issued by a TA.

Discussion of Chinese visa requirements for these two passengers have been settled, as both were supposed to be transiting at Beijing and then Amsterdam, with one - now identified as a 19 year old Iranian named Pouria Nour Mohammad Mehrdad with no known terrorist connections - ticketed KUL-PEK-AMS-FRA, and the other, still now identified by Interpol’s chief Ronald Noble as 29 year old Iranian national Delavar Syed Mohammad Reza, flying KUL-PEK-AMS-CPH. EU passport holders do not require a visa for transits of 72 hours or less at PEK.

There are reports of a third passenger, listed on the manifest as Zhao Qiwei, who appears to be traveling on a forged Chinese passport. The holder of the genuine passport still has possession of the passport, has reportedly never traveled abroad, and is still at home in mainland China.

Authorities have confirmed that five other passengers checked in for the flight, but did not board. Reports indicate that these passengers' bags were offloaded, and that there was no unaccompanied baggage on the aircraft.





Timeline/Facts

Flight MH370 / codeshare as CZ748, a Boeing 777-2H6ER (-200ER), departed Kuala Lumpur (KUL) on Sat., 08 March 2014 at 00:43 Malaysia time (Fri., 07 March 2014 - 16:43 UTC) en route to Beijing (PEK), where it was due to arrive 08 Mar at 06:30 Local time (07 Mar - 22:30 UTC). Route is approximately 2,733 miles (per Great Circle Mapper), average speed is 500 MPH, duration normally ~6 hrs.

Aircraft lost from Subang Center radar at approximately 01:22 Malaysia time (~17:22 UTC), roughly 40 minutes into flight, climbing at 35,000 feet MSL. Last radar position was N6.92 E103.58

Aircraft supposed to check in (via HF radio?) with Ho Chi Minh Control Center around 01:22 Malaysia time (~17:22 UTC) — failed to do so

Malaysia Airlines has confirmed last contact with aircraft was 08 Mar at approximately 01:30 Malaysia time (07 Mar ~17:30 UTC).

Aircraft officially reported to Malaysia Airlines as missing by air traffic control 08 Mar ~02:40 Malaysia (07 Mar ~18:40 UTC).

Search and Rescue operations are underway.

Flight was carrying 227 pax and 12 crew (see link to manifest above). Summary of passenger nationalities:

Code:
margin: 0px;
padding: 6px;
border: 1px inset;
width: 640px;
height: 386px;
text-align: left;
overflow: auto">153 China*, including three under-5s
38 Malaysia
7 Indonesia
6 Australia
5 India
4 France
3 USA, including two under-5s
2 Canada
2 New Zealand
2 Ukraine
1 Austria**
1 Italy**
1 Netherlands
1 Russia
1 Taiwan

*One Chinese passenger was apparently using a false passport, or
info was erroneously recorded. True holder of passport number is
in possession of passport, never traveled abroad.

**Those identified as Italian and Austrian are confirmed alive, not
on flight. Passports reported stolen; true identies/nationalities of
these passengers not yet determined

 

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On one hand it seems hard to believe an airplane could just disappear. But then again, who thought it would take so long to find Steve Fossett's plane?

 

yeah, sure, a small cessna (or whatever) compared to a humungous (sp?) boeing 777.

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On one hand it seems hard to believe an airplane could just disappear. But then again, who thought it would take so long to find Steve Fossett's plane?

 

yeah, sure, a small cessna (or whatever) compared to a humungous (sp?) boeing 777.

Hmmm, remember how small a passenger jet looked compared to the twin towers? Compare one plane against another, yes they are different in size. Compare one plane against the face of the planet and they both are specs. Do you remember how many eye were looking for Fossett? And some satellite picture thing that was broken up and given to volunteers to look at the earth slide by slide? Tons of eyes were looking. If I recall right, there's less than 100 craft looking for this triple-7.

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Why has no comment been made about passengers who were headed to an international conference on the use of alcohol in gasoline.

Their presentation about their extensive research finding unjustifiable degradation of the fuel supply will not be presented .

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WTF? Now it looks like it wasn't Squawking for an hour going in the opposite direction. Did this not seem to alert anyone at this point?

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/

 

The thought of this being purely an accident, to me, is fading rapidly. Either one of the pilots brought the plane down or someone else. And I just don't get the rush to rule out the Iranians as being suspects. There's nothing I've seen that suggests what makes them so totally benign.

 

Something smells fishy and the press is doing a really shitty job in this case of not asking harder questions.

 

EDIT: Also why was the ACARS not transmitting a/c data and position? http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/us-malaysia-airlines-idUSBREA291D520140310

 

One tip I'll give you is to not reference anything CNN or Reuters has to say.

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WTF? Now it looks like it wasn't Squawking for an hour going in the opposite direction. Did this not seem to alert anyone at this point?

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/

 

The thought of this being purely an accident, to me, is fading rapidly. Either one of the pilots brought the plane down or someone else. And I just don't get the rush to rule out the Iranians as being suspects. There's nothing I've seen that suggests what makes them so totally benign.

 

Something smells fishy and the press is doing a really shitty job in this case of not asking harder questions.

 

EDIT: Also why was the ACARS not transmitting a/c data and position? http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/us-malaysia-airlines-idUSBREA291D520140310

Crazy pilot perhaps but a political or terror moment seems less likely to me because no-one has stepped up and said they did it. I mean to be an effective terror tool it can't be a mystery.
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I am joking about it. And don't call me Shirley.

 

We had a choice of steak or fish.

Yes, yes, I remember. I had lasagna.

 

 

 

Seriously, I'm not sure what to make of this ...but Johnny can make a hat, a broach or a pterodactyl.

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Why has no comment been made about passengers who were headed to an international conference on the use of alcohol an gasoline.

Their presentation about their extensive research finding unjustifiable degradation of the fuel supply will not be presented .

 

Yes Gouv has Nailed It

 

It's Fucking MADD Commandeering the plane to take it to the Secret Location for the Conference on Drunk Driving

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I looked for a pic of Captain Oveur's plate with the fish bones on it, but could not find one. That was the best I could do.

 

Rumack: Extremely serious. It starts with a slight fever and dryness of the throat. When the virus penetrates the red blood cells, the victim becomes dizzy, begins to experience an itchy rash, then the poison goes to work on the central nervous system, severe muscle spasms followed by the inevitable drooling.

[Oveur does all of the above as Rumack describes each one]

Rumack: At this point, the entire digestive system collapses accompanied by uncontrollable flatulence

[Oveur begins to fart uncontrollably]

Rumack: Until finally, the poor bastard is reduced to a quivering wasted piece of jelly.

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Scary to think that while we snivel over toy & real Drones

 

This Heavy Bird flys around un-noticed

 

do those things Not have a LoJack running that can't be turned off ?? (Like an EPIRB just to track)

 

I'ed hate to think they could turn off their YellowBrick and AIS and fly Invisible at any level that the World wouldn't sat WTF Look at Dat

 

Or ...................DA-Plane, DA-Plane Boss here com Da-Plane

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I'll lay out a sawbuck that the US government has known all along where the plane is but doesn't want to tell folks where to look too soon because that might reveal too much about their capabilities.

You should update your avatar photo to include the tinfoil hat.

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I'll lay out a sawbuck that the US government has known all along where the plane is but doesn't want to tell folks where to look too soon because that might reveal too much about their capabilities.

You should update your avatar photo to include the tinfoil hat.

 

You might think I'm kidding, but it's pretty easy to find something in the ocean with high res photos. Clouds, water, and waves all have predictable signatures and it's easy for algorithms to look for anything in an image that doesn't fit the profile of being a cloud or water.

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Let me put it another way. The Chinese just published a satellite photo showing what looks like debris. The resolution is really crappy and looks like they used an algorithm to blur the image a bit. That's a common technique to hide how high your resolution really is. Anyway, they said they've had the photo for several days but just announced it.

 

One possible explanation is that they have been in possession of this information for a while but were hoping someone else would find the plane. But that hasn't happened and people are getting ticked, so they finally said "Eff it, let's dumb down the image so people won't know our true capabilities. Maybe we'll get some street cred out of it". Could also be a gamble to demonstrate to their enemies (who would suspect the image quality of being diminished) that they're fully capable of tracking a plane with a satellite.

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As per Doghouse's reminder, I've also checked under my seats- no plane, however I recovered 2 lighters, 23 French fries, 5 Gatorade lids, a left sailing glove, numerous bits of spectra, $1.37, and an Annapolis city parking tix.

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I would think that any subs in the area of a downed 777 would have a pretty good clue. Sonar stations too.

 

Subs are pretty useless. Sub support ships and a P3 Orion are the right tools.

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I wonder if any T-AGOS MSC ships were in the Straights of Malacca that night

 

that being said - it's a very busy waterway and very noisy

 

On second thought- it's probably too busy a waterway for a T-AGOS boat - plus there are only a few still operating, but they are mostly in the west pacific

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