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It's 7:00am, maybe, it could be 8:00am. It's hard to tell. The electricity has been off for, well, a very long time. The sun is starting to rise over the horizon with the red mist slowly lifting to li

Jack, I think you actually believe this. That's kind of scary, because it shows just how effective propaganda can be.  The dossier has not been disproven, administration and campaign officials ha

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McMaster could leave WH after months of tension with Trump

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With tensions flaring between President Donald Trump and national security adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, the Pentagon is considering options that would allow the President to potentially move the three-star general out of his current role and back into the military, according to half a dozen defense and administration officials.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/22/politics/hr-mcmaster-future-trump-white-house/index.html

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10 hours ago, Bent Sailor said:

I know the angle you're using to try weaselling out of what you said, Dog, but it doesn't fly. If Bill talking to Lynch wasn't a corrupt act (i.e. corruption) than it isn't evidence of corruption. You have stated it to be evidence of corruption, therefore you are saying that it was corruption or you are spouting nonsense. 

By saying "Dog's sex with that woman is evidence of him raping her", I would be saying "Dog is a rapist", even if I don't mouth those exact words. You know this as well as I do and are fooling no-one with trying to weasel out of it. 

Now, once again, if it was not corruption, how is it "evidence of corruption"? This isn't about what I decide - it's about your reasoning. What is your reasoning for making that claim if you are not saying it was a corrupt act?

Hey stupid... I didn't say it was not corruption.

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14 hours ago, Dog said:

First, I didn't say it was not corruption, I said I have refrained from calling it corruption.  Secondly, you don't appear to understand that evidence does not have to be conclusive. Finally, if this is the beginning of another tedious decent into the pedantic, I'm good with whatever you decide.

What's this? Doggie flips on the Dog/Plame standard?

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16 hours ago, Dog said:

Forget Russia, those are exactly the kinds of charges that Trump could be vulnerable to. Hitting a bit close to home I think.

Not sure I’m ready to forget Russia just yet, and I’m sure that Mueller isn’t, given the spate of recent indictments. Where do you reckon Manafort’s creditors are?  

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3 minutes ago, hermetic said:

the bank of cyprus may well have ignored a bit of money laundering, but ross''s financials won't reveal any of it

and don't get all excited about mueller's boys getting access to that banks records

the bank of cyprus records are the very edge of the earth in these matters

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45 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Where do you reckon Manafort’s creditors are?  

Exactly. So why did Manafort panic for cash in late 2015 and early 2016?  

He tried twenty different ways to illegally raise millions, FAST. Then got on with Trump, and $16M came from the little Chicago lender, the Chicago savings Bank, as of July.

That's bank's poohbah, Steve Calk, suddenly expected to be appointed Secretary of the Army by Trump. (Source: Maddow's reading of the 32 count indictment)

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3 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

and Gates is pleading guilty and cooperating with the investigation. 

Kinda puts Manafort in a box. It’s going to be tough to defend charges when your business partner is singing. 

Now that he has, or will have Gates, I wonder if Mueller would tell Manafort to pound sand is he offers to cooperate. 

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56 minutes ago, Sean said:

Kinda puts Manafort in a box. It’s going to be tough to defend charges when your business partner is singing. 

Now that he has, or will have Gates, I wonder if Mueller would tell Manafort to pound sand is he offers to cooperate. 

Depends what Manafort has to offer, I suppose. Kinda the crux of the case.

But if Mueller has the answers, and gets Manafort convicted while proving Trump Inc collusion with Russian agents in exchange for help in the election or a financial reason for Trump to have modified the RNC platform wrt to Russian sanctions? Even better. 

That fits my definition of treason for personal gain.

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seems to me that manafort hid his ukraine income by skirting the irs and directly purchasing assets in the us (real estate, art, etc).  money laundering 101

then he got back to the us, had large operating expenses, and no cash - he was / is essentially "land poor".  hence the us bank loans.

unless he can show declared income that paid for the assets, he's toast

not sure I see a path to trump though

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7 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:
10 hours ago, bhyde said:

Except for the 5 counts of bank fraud conspiracy, you'd be correct. 

https://www.vox.com/2018/2/22/17042594/paul-manafort-gates-mueller-indictment

Ok toss in the bank fraud. Still no Russian conspiracy 

I'm curious about your take on "no Russian conspiracy." If the Russians are illegally funneling money to Trump's business associates (and Trump himself, although that's not part of the current indictments/charges), what are the odds that some of this money was spent on the campaign?

If Manfort & Gates were cozying up the Russians for cash (pretty well established IMHO), while Trump Jr was chasing after them for dirt on Hillary (again, pretty well established) then those are pretty big dots....... totally unconnected? There's a heck of a lot of smoke here for there to not be any chance of a fire.

-DSK

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23 minutes ago, hermetic said:

not sure I see a path to trump though

So true.  I hired Manafort only to help manage my Russian finances during the campaign.  He's got connections and dresses sharply.  I only hire the best people.  Believe me.

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7 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:

Ok toss in the bank fraud. Still no Russian conspiracy 

I assume when you say Russian conspiracy you mean between Trump and the Russians with regards to the Election. In which case you are correct as far as this indictment is concerned. I think the Manafort/Gates/Russian connection is pretty well established, at least in my mind, and the indictment is focused in that direction. Even though Mueller is tasked with looking into election tempering, I think Mueller's path to Trump goes from Manafort to the Russians and then back to Trump in a money laundering or fraud sense. Both Manafort and Trump are real estate guys with financial "irregularities" and both have strong ties to the Russians. I'd be shocked if Manafort and Trump didn't cook up some scheme to help each other out. I don't see Trump directly colluding with the Russians to win the election (not yet at least). He's more patsy than player.

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25 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

I'm curious about your take on "no Russian conspiracy." If the Russians are illegally funneling money to Trump's business associates (and Trump himself, although that's not part of the current indictments/charges), what are the odds that some of this money was spent on the campaign?

If Manfort & Gates were cozying up the Russians for cash (pretty well established IMHO), while Trump Jr was chasing after them for dirt on Hillary (again, pretty well established) then those are pretty big dots....... totally unconnected? There's a heck of a lot of smoke here for there to not be any chance of a fire.

-DSK

Firstly you started both statements with the word “if” so my thoughts are wait and see. “If” Muller can prove that good on him but so far has not. 

What is even more well established is the HRC/Fusion GPS/Steele connection that nobody denies. 

So in the end Muller is going to say no collusion and I caught a couple of tax cheats because if he charges Trump et al he will have to open up the “dossier” files for cross examination. Nobody wants that. 

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19 minutes ago, bhyde said:

I assume when you say Russian conspiracy you mean between Trump and the Russians with regards to the Election. In which case you are correct as far as this indictment is concerned. I think the Manafort/Gates/Russian connection is pretty well established, at least in my mind, and the indictment is focused in that direction. Even though Mueller is tasked with looking into election tempering, I think Mueller's path to Trump goes from Manafort to the Russians and then back to Trump in a money laundering or fraud sense. Both Manafort and Trump are real estate guys with financial "irregularities" and both have strong ties to the Russians. I'd be shocked if Manafort and Trump didn't cook up some scheme to help each other out. I don't see Trump directly colluding with the Russians to win the election (not yet at least). He's more patsy than player.

But so far the charges in the indicments against Manafort and Gates relate to work they were doiing in the Ukraine prior to Trump getting the nomination.

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24 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:
58 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

I'm curious about your take on "no Russian conspiracy." If the Russians are illegally funneling money to Trump's business associates (and Trump himself, although that's not part of the current indictments/charges), what are the odds that some of this money was spent on the campaign?

If Manfort & Gates were cozying up the Russians for cash (pretty well established IMHO), while Trump Jr was chasing after them for dirt on Hillary (again, pretty well established) then those are pretty big dots....... totally unconnected? There's a heck of a lot of smoke here for there to not be any chance of a fire.

Firstly you started both statements with the word “if” so my thoughts are wait and see. “If” Muller can prove that good on him but so far has not. 

What is even more well established is the HRC/Fusion GPS/Steele connection that nobody denies. 

So in the end Muller is going to say no collusion and I caught a couple of tax cheats because if he charges Trump et al he will have to open up the “dossier” files for cross examination. Nobody wants that. 

Why not? Wouldn't bother me in the least. As for the connection between HRC/Fusion and the Steele dossier, that's pretty much a red herring. If the dossier is factual then 1- it doesn't mater who paid for it and 2- it was initiated by a Republican opponent of Trumps so I don't "get" how having Hillary's fingers in the pie suddenly poison absolutely everything. I mean, BECAUSE HILLARY!!!??? LOCK HER UP??????

Statements above beginning with "if" are accepted as fact outside the FoxNewsiverse. Trump and his associates were doing business with Russia, including suspected money laundering, and he said many times how he was getting financing from Russia. And the "Trump Campaign" was set up years before it actually launched publicly, so the Russian money flow was definitely within the time frame. Suddenly he knows nobody in Russia, knows nothing about Russia, yeah right.

Like I said..... far too much smoke for people to be credible in saying "Nope, no chance of a fire here, move along"

29 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

But so far the charges in the indicments against Manafort and Gates relate to work they were doiing in the Ukraine prior to Trump getting the nomination.

But during the campaign

-DSK

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Manafort, (who, btw, was paid gobs of money by the Kremlin to help elect Russia friendly candidates in Ukraine before leaving that lucrative job to come to the US and help elect Trump) will probably never flip. He'd rather go to prison than get on Putin's bad side. Bad things happen to people who get on Putin's bad side. Bad things happen to their families too. Manafort will choose prison over Putin's wrath.

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54 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

the meeting with the Rooskies at the convention. 

...at the NRA convention. The gun lobby got swept into the dripping?

Amazing stuff. I want to see LaPierre vs Mueller. I figure that Maria Butina is Spatial's type.

 

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1 hour ago, Saorsa said:

But so far the charges in the indicments against Manafort and Gates relate to work they were doiing in the Ukraine prior to Trump getting the nomination.

MAGA

In November 2012 Trump  filed a trademark application to use the slogan for political purposes. It was registered July 2015 after Trump formally began his campaign.

In September 2011 Roger Stone tweeted "Make America Great Again --TRUMP HUCKABEE 2012 #nomormons"

Trump had political ambitions for quite a while before 2016 and would have sounded out potential allies.

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56 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

(Moveable Ballast) So in the end Muller is going to say no collusion and I caught a couple of tax cheats because if he charges Trump et al he will have to open up the “dossier” files for cross examination. Nobody wants that. 

That cross-examination has already occurred, with Fusion's side having been presented, solidly, in Simpson's testimony before the committee.

"HRC connection" innuendo, again? Steele had no clue who the end clients were, but he heard what he heard. His work can bear scrutiny, and has been prescient.

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24 minutes ago, jocal505 said:

...at the NRA convention. The gun lobby got swept into the dripping?

Amazing stuff. I want to see LaPierre vs Mueller. I figure that Maria Butina is Spatial's type.

 

RNC. 

Gates also hung around longer than Manafort, as a fundraiser during the transition. 

Manafort is 68. He’s looking at a life sentence if he doesn’t flip. Under pressure. Bigly. 

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2 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

RNC. 

Gates also hung around longer than Manafort, as a fundraiser during the transition. 

Manafort is 68. He’s looking at a life sentence if he doesn’t flip. Under pressure. Bigly. 

Still gotta have something to flip on. That has not been established. 

I’m not saying nothing happened but I think the conjecture could be a little over the top 

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2 hours ago, Saorsa said:

But so far the charges in the indicments against Manafort and Gates relate to work they were doiing in the Ukraine prior to Trump getting the nomination.

Mmmm kind of. For the tax issues, yes, most of the alleged criminal activity happens on or before 2014. For the bank fraud, not so much. Check the indictment around paragraph 40 and above. A lot of the funny number crunching comes during the campaign.

On the other hand, if you believe this is all made up, then it really doesn't matter what the indictment says. If you haven't already, I highly recommend reading the full indictment. It's not pretty and should make Donald pretty nervous IMHO.

 

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9 minutes ago, bhyde said:

If you haven't already, I highly recommend reading the full indictment. It's not pretty and should make Donald pretty nervous IMHO.

 

As if he will read that. He's waiting on his talking points from Rush.

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8 minutes ago, bhyde said:

Mmmm kind of. For the tax issues, yes, most of the alleged criminal activity happens on or before 2014. For the bank fraud, not so much. Check the indictment around paragraph 40 and above. A lot of the funny number crunching comes during the campaign.

On the other hand, if you believe this is all made up, then it really doesn't matter what the indictment says. If you haven't already, I highly recommend reading the full indictment. It's not pretty and should make Donald pretty nervous IMHO.

 

Yeah that talking point doesn't work anymore.  They were running a white collar criminal organization while running the Trump campaign.  Mueller has played this very well, luring people out onto the limb spouting talking points, then dropping new charges to saw off that limb.  All of these discussions tend to focus on one person and his charges, while forgetting that Papadopoulos has admitted to more than just lying about Russian contacts, as has Flynn, the former National Security Adviser.  Something tells me that Mueller is not being distracted.  

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5 hours ago, bhyde said:

Good interview on NPR detailing Manafort's connections with the Russians and his business dealings. Worth a listen.

https://www.npr.org/2018/01/29/581478324/paul-manafort-joined-the-trump-campaign-in-a-state-of-despair-and-desperation

 

Excellent backstory on Manafort, thanks for sharing.  One of his first cousins has a large construction company, and also owns a nice Boatyard/Marina nearby.

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1 hour ago, billy backstay said:

 

Excellent backstory on Manafort, thanks for sharing.  One of his first cousins has a large construction company, and also owns a nice Boatyard/Marina nearby.

Boatyard is a pretty good place to launder fairly substantial money.

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2 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

This latest set of guilty pleas and indictments? Nothing to see here. Happens all the time. 

Bribing former European officials? Meh.

 

Maybe.

Manafort had to know what kind of scrutiny would come with running a presidential campaign. So he volunteers to run one for no salary, when he is in the middle of trying to cook the books to get a bank to give him 16 million to keep his creditors from extracting alternative payment?  

Sounds like the campaign was an offer he couldn't refuse.  

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Paul Butler, former prosecutor, thinks that there's no way Gates got a deal for serving up Manafort, because Manny's case is airtight already.  Gates went from looking at 40 years to maybe getting probation.  He served up someone higher than Manafort.  

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10 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

In a statement issued by his spokesman, Manafort said he has no plans to make a deal with Mueller.

He may want to revise his plans.

Mueller is making it real clear that he's not letting anything fly under the radar. Manafort is playing a dangerous game thinking Trump is going to pardon him, because at this point he's looking at some serious federal-pound-me-in-the-ass time. And if Donald pardons Manafort to cover his ass (won't work), I'm sure Bobby Mulls has a file marked "Forward to New York AG" where the rules are a little different.

I'm curious if Manafort is going to roll on Jared. Surely Gates will. Mueller was nice enough to let Manafort stew it over for the weekend. Brilliant play. 

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1 hour ago, SloopJonB said:

Boatyard is a pretty good place to launder fairly substantial money.

I'm certain the cousin is not involved.  Manafort Bros. Construction are very successful in their own right.  Story goes that they were on the verge of shuttering their doors, when the Uconn stadium roof collapsed from a heavy snowfall,  many years ago, and they got the demo and reconstruction work, and many state contracts ensued afterwards.  I have spotted their truck onsite at the aircraft engine plant where I work, but none lately  I have no idea of the veracity of that tale, but it makes a compelling narrative.  Cousin also has one or two large powerboats, Feadship, or something, and they do charter work, when Manafort is not using.  I

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33 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

 

Shit is starting to get REAL now!!  Will Trump on on a typical weekend Twitter storm rage, now??

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The new charges against Manafort seek asset forfeiture

A superseding indictment issued this afternoon. Paragraph 48 through the end of the document. Mueller is seeking forfeiture of his house in Brooklyn, his home in Arlington, VA, his house in the Hamptons, his life insurance policy and his bank accounts in the U.S.. Ouch. Maybe Trump will buy him new stuff. This is turning up the legal heat from warm to broil. 

https://www.justice.gov/file/1038741/download 
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18 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

The new charges against Manafort seek asset forfeiture

A superseding indictment issued this afternoon. Paragraph 48 through the end of the document. Mueller is seeking forfeiture of his house in Brooklyn, his home in Arlington, VA, his house in the Hamptons, his life insurance policy and his bank accounts in the U.S.. Ouch. Maybe Trump will buy him new stuff. This is turning up the legal heat from warm to broil. 

https://www.justice.gov/file/1038741/download 

Translation: Not only am I going to put you in jail, I'm going to take everything you own. Are you sure you don't want to talk about Jared? 

No mention of Trump or Jared in the indictment, but there are a lot of LLC's and other entities ( Company A / Company B ) named. Wonder if any of those entities have any dealings with Trump & Co. They certainly were laundering money during and after the campaign. Manafort needs to pull a G. Gordon Liddy and ask Trump, "Which street corner should I stand on." Drip, drip, drip...

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6 minutes ago, bhyde said:

Translation: Not only am I going to put you in jail, I'm going to take everything you own. Are you sure you don't want to talk about Jared? 

No mention of Trump or Jared in the indictment, but there are a lot of LLC's and other entities ( Company A / Company B ) named. Wonder if any of those entities have any dealings with Trump & Co. They certainly were laundering money during and after the campaign. Manafort needs to pull a G. Gordon Liddy and ask Trump, "Which street corner should I stand on." Drip, drip, drip...

If they take away all of his collateral, his creditors are not going to be very happy with him.  16 million bucks is a tidy sum.  

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3 minutes ago, bhyde said:

Translation: Not only am I going to put you in jail, I'm going to take everything you own. Are you sure you don't want to talk about Jared? 

No mention of Trump or Jared in the indictment, but there are a lot of LLC's and other entities ( Company A / Company B ) named. Wonder if any of those entities have any dealings with Trump & Co. They certainly were laundering money during and after the campaign. Manafort needs to pull a G. Gordon Liddy and ask Trump, "Which street corner should I stand on." Drip, drip, drip...

I have to think Mueller had a weak case in the beginning. Manafort was quoted saying that he had hoped his friend and business partner was willing to stand up to the charges and defend himself and Manafort against them. That told me that he believed at the time that he could beat this. I also think Manafort didn't see the second swing coming with the additional 32 charges, he had a chance for a deal before this, now, he is in deeper doo-doo, and Mueller probably has more in reserve

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1 minute ago, badlatitude said:

I have to think Mueller had a weak case in the beginning. Manafort was quoted saying that he had hoped his friend and business partner was willing to stand up to the charges and defend himself and Manafort against them. That told me that he believed at the time that he could beat this. I also think Manafort didn't see the second swing coming with the additional 32 charges, he had a chance for a deal before this, now, he is in deeper doo-doo, and Mueller probably has more in reserve

Man! Is there somewhere you can apply to be on a grand jury? Shit I'd pay to be on it.

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2 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

So why do you think that Rosenstein alerted the White House about problems with Kushner's Security Clearance?  

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/375374-rosenstein-alerted-white-house-2-weeks-ago-on-kushner-clearance

I'll take Money Laundering for $500 Alex.

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I'll go with the common denominator for every one facing charges, who was a part of the Trump campaign: some form of lying.  My guess would be the security clearance application that left out a hundred foreign contacts.  Hence Rosenstein's alert to the WH, and the Pride of NY's comments about what a good boy Jared is, made in today's CPAC speech.  

Keep in mind, I don't think that will happen, but it is a thought provoking scenario.... 

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46 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

I have to think Mueller had a weak case in the beginning. Manafort was quoted saying that he had hoped his friend and business partner was willing to stand up to the charges and defend himself and Manafort against them. That told me that he believed at the time that he could beat this. I also think Manafort didn't see the second swing coming with the additional 32 charges, he had a chance for a deal before this, now, he is in deeper doo-doo, and Mueller probably has more in reserve

 

Mueller has much more in reserve, he is playing the long game, and making sure that his indictments are all airtight.  But, if would sure be nice if he could move this along and get this maniacal, psychotic, man-child removed from the White House, before he does something really crazy and irreversible, like starting another war somewhere...

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7 minutes ago, billy backstay said:

 

Mueller has much more in reserve, he is playing the long game, and making sure that his indictments are all airtight.  But, if would sure be nice if he could move this along and get this maniacal, psychotic, man-child removed from the White House, before he does something really crazy and irreversible, like starting another war somewhere...

Mueller needs absolutely the worst criminal charges ever for impeachment to work, he can nail everyone else, but the big man will be hard since all he needs is 34 votes to get by and Trump probably has that. Disgusting as that may be, it would make the election in 2020 most interesting because so many heads would be on the line.

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7 hours ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

RNC. 

Gates also hung around longer than Manafort, as a fundraiser during the transition. 

Manafort is 68. He’s looking at a life sentence if he doesn’t flip. Under pressure. Bigly. 

He''s an old white dude. I will go out on a limb and say they will offer Manafart a small sentence at a Club Fed min security fac. IF he saves them the trouble of trying his silly ass by pleading guilty to the whole schmear. It's probably Gates Mueller views as the big pigeon in that particular cage and he has a yuuuuugggge amount of work to do cleaning that up. A trial would occupy a heck of a lot of his resources, I reckon.   

 

 I have to correct my earlier statement that assumes Manafart has to worry about the Russian debt collectors. Heard he successfully got a loan for $16 million after he signed on to Trump's Best People EVER club. I think the tough guys got most of what that daring and perhaps life-saving move rendered. The Russian mobsters are likely to note he has attained celeb status and offing him would bring a lot of heat. If they weren't paid off in full by the amount he got as Trump's flunky they will probably decide to write off the rest. They were damn lucky to get that much, really. 

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8 hours ago, Nice! said:

Manafort, (who, btw, was paid gobs of money by the Kremlin to help elect Russia friendly candidates in Ukraine before leaving that lucrative job to come to the US and help elect Trump) will probably never flip. He'd rather go to prison than get on Putin's bad side. Bad things happen to people who get on Putin's bad side. Bad things happen to their families too.

Bad things like 3 dozen hot tubs full of polonium falling onto your head from the top of Trump Tower?

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/world/europe/russia-sergei-magnitsky-william-browder.html

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Not the brightest bulbs on the tree -

https://slate.com/technology/2018/02/paul-manafort-couldnt-convert-pdfs-to-word-documents.html

Back in October, a grand jury indictment charged Manafort and his business associate Rick Gates with a variety of crimes, including conspiring “to defraud the United States.” On Thursday, special counsel Robert Mueller filed a new indictment against the pair, substantially expanding the charges. As one former federal prosecutor told the Washington Post, Manafort and Gates’ methods appear to have been “extensive and bold and greedy with a capital ‘G,’ but … not all that sophisticated.”

One new detail from the indictment, however, points to just how unsophisticated Manafort seems to have been. Here’s the relevant passage from the indictment. I’ve bolded the most important bits:

Manafort and Gates made numerous false and fraudulent representations to secure the loans. For example, Manafort provided the bank with doctored [profit and loss statements] for [Davis Manafort Inc.] for both 2015 and 2016, overstating its income by millions of dollars. The doctored 2015 DMI P&L submitted to Lender D was the same false statement previously submitted to Lender C, which overstated DMI’s income by more than $4 million. The doctored 2016 DMI P&L was inflated by Manafort by more than $3.5 million. To create the false 2016 P&L, on or about October 21, 2016, Manafort emailed Gates a .pdf version of the real 2016 DMI P&L, which showed a loss of more than $600,000. Gates converted that .pdf into a “Word” document so that it could be edited, which Gates sent back to Manafort. Manafort altered that “Word” document by adding more than $3.5 million in income. He then sent this falsified P&L to Gates and asked that the “Word” document be converted back to a .pdf, which Gates did and returned to Manafort. Manafort then sent the falsified 2016 DMI P&L .pdf to Lender D.

So here’s the essence of what went wrong for Manafort and Gates, according to Mueller’s investigation: Manafort allegedly wanted to falsify his company’s income, but he couldn’t figure out how to edit the PDF. He therefore had Gates turn it into a Microsoft Word document for him, which led the two to bounce the documents back-and-forth over email. As attorney and blogger Susan Simpson notes on Twitter, Manafort’s inability to complete a basic task on his own seems to have effectively “created an incriminating paper trail.”

 
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12 hours ago, Mark K said:

He''s an old white dude. I will go out on a limb and say they will offer Manafart a small sentence at a Club Fed min security fac. IF he saves them the trouble of trying his silly ass by pleading guilty to the whole schmear. It's probably Gates Mueller views as the big pigeon in that particular cage and he has a yuuuuugggge amount of work to do cleaning that up. A trial would occupy a heck of a lot of his resources, I reckon.   

 

 I have to correct my earlier statement that assumes Manafart has to worry about the Russian debt collectors. Heard he successfully got a loan for $16 million after he signed on to Trump's Best People EVER club. I think the tough guys got most of what that daring and perhaps life-saving move rendered. The Russian mobsters are likely to note he has attained celeb status and offing him would bring a lot of heat. If they weren't paid off in full by the amount he got as Trump's flunky they will probably decide to write off the rest. They were damn lucky to get that much, really. 

I see the math. And the Manafort body language showed that sort of panic (see details in Sean's Post 4584) in late 2015 and 2016 before getting the $16M (in two loans between July and  Nov., 2016). You sound pretty certain the $16M got to those parties, but Deripaska was still suing over Black Sea Cable last month.

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JAN. 10, 2018  Deripaska Sues Manafort and Gates

Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska’s company, Surf Horizon Ltd., sues Paul Manafort and Rick Gates for fraud and breach of fiduciary duty. The suit claims that Manafort and Gates used Surf’s $18.9 million investment in a partnership they controlled as “their personal piggy banks,” moving funds in and out “without any apparent business reason.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/manafort-sued-by-russian-billionaire-deripaska-over-ukraine-deal

This is what had set off the Manafort panic.

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(...) In late 2014, Surf sued in the Cayman Islands, seeking an accounting of the money, and the liquidators sued in federal court in Virginia so that they could obtain records from Manafort and Gates and depose them. Both men testified that a lawyer in Cyprus who acted as agent with custody of bank records for partnerships wasn’t their agent, and they lacked control over him or the documents in his files.

“In fact, however, the statements made by Manafort and Gates about the lawyer in Cyprus and the files of the partnership were false,” according to the complaint.

 

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14 hours ago, badlatitude said:

I have to think Mueller had a weak case in the beginning.

I hope your source isn't Paul Manafort.

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Manafort was quoted saying that he had hoped his friend and business partner was willing to stand up to the charges and defend himself and Manafort against them. That told me that he believed at the time that he could beat this.

Manafort believes many things, while painting way outside the lines. (What sort of belief system would support his real estate shenanigans?)

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I also think Manafort didn't see the second swing coming with the additional 32 charges, he had a chance for a deal before this, now, he is in deeper doo-doo, and Mueller probably has more in reserve

The second set of charges was set up by the first, and Manafort is a dirty trickster: the hacking and e-mail trolling stuff (his signature in the Ukraine) is still unaddressed.

Mueller has Gates' co-operation now,  to dig into Trump's actions. Manafort is a bigger fish, yes, but one less needed these days.

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"He'd rather go to prison than get on Putin's bad side."

Not so sure; people like this have an innate sense that they can come out of any situation smelling like a rose.  I can see Manafort thinking "Trump will pardon me but if he doesn't I'll deal what I know for a lighter sentence. Putin won't mind because, hey, we're buddies and I did so much for him. Besides the guys in Russia don't have to worry about extradition and it's only 16 mill. Chump change to these guys. They'll understand how the world works"

A name that is suspiciously absent is Roger Stone; they were as thick as thieves earlier in the saga.

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1 minute ago, learningJ24 said:

"He'd rather go to prison than get on Putin's bad side."

Not so sure; people like this have an innate sense that they can come out of any situation smelling like a rose.  I can see Manafort thinking "Trump will pardon me but if he doesn't I'll deal what I know for a lighter sentence. Putin won't mind because, hey, we're buddies and I did so much for him. Besides the guys in Russia don't have to worry about extradition and it's only 16 mill. Chump change to these guys. They'll understand how the world works"

A name that is suspiciously absent is Roger Stone; they were as thick as thieves earlier in the saga.

Stone has gotten very quiet for the first time ever. It’s a different look for the original dirty trickster. 

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Where does Karl Rove fit into this narrative?.............

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3 hours ago, jocal505 said:

I see the math. And the Manafort body language showed that sort of panic (see details in Sean's Post 4584) in late 2015 and 2016 before getting the $16M (in two loans between July and  Nov., 2016). You sound pretty certain the $16M got to those parties, but Deripaska was still suing over Black Sea Cable last month.

This is what had set off the Manafort panic.

 

:lol: Even the Russian criminals are after them now.

They'll be begging for protective custody and witness protection soon.

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17 hours ago, billy backstay said:

 

Mueller has much more in reserve, he is playing the long game, and making sure that his indictments are all airtight.  But, if would sure be nice if he could move this along and get this maniacal, psychotic, man-child removed from the White House, before he does something really crazy and irreversible, like starting another war somewhere...

That's amazing.  How do you come by all this secret information?

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1 minute ago, Saorsa said:

That's amazing.  How do you come by all this secret information?

 

All Mueller has to do is to pull on the threads surrounding Trumps deals with his former Russian partner in Bayrock that funded his dealings, after his Bankruptcies caused legitimate lenders to shun him.  Trump has no doubt laundered money for the Russians, whether he colluded with them over the election, or not.

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2 hours ago, Saorsa said:

That's amazing.  How do you come by all this secret information?

You wouldn't understand but intelligent people can watch a process and make educated deductions and draw some conclusions about some unspecified activities that are going on behind the scenes.

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36 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

You wouldn't understand but intelligent people can watch a process and make educated deductions and draw some conclusions about some unspecified activities that are going on behind the scenes.

And then pretend they are facts.

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14 minutes ago, Saorsa said:

And then pretend they are facts.

With your rather tenuous grasp of what facts actually are I'm not surprised that you would regard conjecture of a deduced likelihood as being the same as facts.

But when you operate on a level like "No conviction, no crime" or "alternative facts" or "fake news" then it's not a surprise that the concept would escape you.

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9 hours ago, jocal505 said:

I hope your source isn't Paul Manafort.

Manafort believes many things, while painting way outside the lines. (What sort of belief system would support his real estate shenanigans?)

The second set of charges was set up by the first, and Manafort is a dirty trickster: the hacking and e-mail trolling stuff (his signature in the Ukraine) is still unaddressed.

Mueller has Gates' co-operation now,  to dig into Trump's actions. Manafort is a bigger fish, yes, but one less needed these days.

Manafort is a skilled criminal, and I would love to read a good biography about him, how he got to where he is, and the damage he did along the way. He reminds me of an old-time mafioso, who loves thumbing his nose at the law, well versed in denial and slippery as oil and water. The incredible thing is how he and Trump ever got mixed up in the first place is amazing to me, and I think once the whole story is told, the question of how the public ever fell for it also will be a story by itself.

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2 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

Manafort is a skilled criminal, and I would love to read a good biography about him, how he got to where he is, and the damage he did along the way. He reminds me of an old-time mafioso, who loves thumbing his nose at the law, well versed in denial and slippery as oil and water. The incredible thing is how he and Trump ever got mixed up in the first place is amazing to me, and I think once the whole story is told, the question of how the public ever fell for it also will be a story by itself.

The intro between Trump and Manafort goes straight to Roger Stone. Birds of a feather, those three.

What does that make Gates?

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4 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

Manafort is a skilled criminal, and I would love to read a good biography about him, how he got to where he is, and the damage he did along the way. He reminds me of an old-time mafioso, who loves thumbing his nose at the law, well versed in denial and slippery as oil and water. The incredible thing is how he and Trump ever got mixed up in the first place is amazing to me, and I think once the whole story is told, the question of how the public ever fell for it also will be a story by itself.

 

post 4531 above links to NPR interview with a Manafort Bio author, who gives detailed bio info, since Manafort started in business:

 

"Good interview on NPR detailing Manafort's connections with the Russians and his business dealings. Worth a listen.

https://www.npr.org/2018/01/29/581478324/paul-manafort-joined-the-trump-campaign-in-a-state-of-despair-and-desperation"

 

Fascinating listen, or read the text, if you prefer.

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2 minutes ago, billy backstay said:

 

post 4531 above links to NPR interview with a Manafort Bio author, who gives detailed bio info, since Manafort started in business:

 

"Good interview on NPR detailing Manafort's connections with the Russians and his business dealings. Worth a listen.

https://www.npr.org/2018/01/29/581478324/paul-manafort-joined-the-trump-campaign-in-a-state-of-despair-and-desperation"

 

Fascinating listen, or read the text, if you prefer.

Thanks!

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6 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

Thanks!

Some excerpts from the NPR interview

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GROSS: So you said that the Manafort firm - the lobbying firm - took on as clients dictatorial governments in Nigeria, Kenya, Zaire, Equatorial Guinea, Saudi Arabia and Somalia. In 1992, the Center for Public Integrity called this firm the torturers' lobby. So how did Manafort try to remake the image of dictators and militia leaders? I mean, you say one of the biggest examples is the makeover of the Angola guerrilla leader Jonas Savimbi. What had Savimbi done, and how did Manafort's firm remake his image?

FOER: And he had Jeane Kirkpatrick, the former ambassador to the U.N., extolling him as kind of a latter-day Thomas Jefferson, which was laughable.

But it worked. And it worked to such a large extent that Manafort and his firm kept pushing the arms to come to Angola even as there was an excellent chance for the regime there to broker some sort of cease-fire in the civil war. And so there are critics, like former Senator - New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, who accuse Manafort in his firm of extending this incredibly brutal civil war way past the point it should have been settled and causing hundreds of thousands of Angolans to die in the process.

 FOER: So Oleg Deripaska was an engineer who became extremely wealthy by prevailing in the so-called aluminum wars of the 1990s. This was the struggle to control the former Soviet aluminum industry, which was the most brutal of all the struggles for privatization of a former Soviet industry. And it was one in which there was this trail of corpses - of murdered accountants, of murder gangsters, of murdered owners of smelters. And Deripaska ended up prevailing in this aluminum war.

This was a man who carried a reputation for being connected to organized crime. That's the reason why the United States denied him a visa to travel here starting in 2005. And he hired Manafort because he wanted to use Manafort's political skills to help him advance his political interests within the region. And so for instance, Montenegro, the former Yugoslav Republic, had an aluminum industry that he wanted to control. So he hired Manafort's firm in order to orchestrate Montenegro's independence campaign in 2006, which it successfully did.

... But his new clients don't really want to pay for him. And so the extent of Manafort's relationship with Yanukovych and his investment in Ukraine was highly personal. He would go swimming naked with Yanukovych in his banya. He would play tennis with the guy.

 

 FOER: So he starts this firm Pericles, where Oleg Deripaska becomes his primary investor, and he promises that he's going to invest $200 million with Paul Manafort in order to buy up properties around the world. And so Manafort says that the first property they're going to buy is some telecommunications holding company in Odessa. And Deripaska says, great, and he pays him $18.9 million and pays him a $7 million management fee to oversee the investment. And Deripaska, at this moment - so this is 2007 - is one of the richest men in the world. He's worth $28 billion. And so this investment is actually relatively trivial for him.

 And so Deripaska starts to dig even deeper, and as he begins to dig, his lawyers begin to reflect his feelings, and they end up telling the court that they're not even sure that Manafort bought the company that he promised to buy in the first place. And all of this is simply incredible, given Deripaska's history, given that Deripaska is not the type of guy who overlooks any sort of debt. And it's really incredible that Manafort would have dealt with him in the way that he did given all that.

 

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