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Irma


Car Ramrod

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I am in Grenada sitting fat and happy on my mooring and I can tell you I don't like that big predicted jog to the south. It puts Grenada on the path if it keeps veering south. Hurricanes starting with I have previous for being unpredictable bitches/bastards. Remember Ivan it stayed south doing a number on Grenada despite forecasts then looped the loop when it hit the US.

I suppose I should trust the forecasters who are all saying that after the jog south normal behaviour will be resumed and it will curve north well clear of Grenada.

Now if I was in Antigua I would be worried. 

IVAN.gif

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Not liking the GFS model. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017083112&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=81

 

GFS doesn't hold up very well past 4 or 5 days, let's hope this is the case and it curves out to sea. ECMWF looks spooky too, but keeps it out of my neighborhood.

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From NHC:

500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall
convection surrounding a small eye.  Satellite estimates continue to
rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB
support an initial wind speed of 100 kt.  This is a remarkable 50-kt
increase from yesterday at this time.

~~~

This one will be nasty.  Looks like the Leeward Islands, especially Guadeloupe and Antigua won't escape her, but what she does afterwards is up in the air (ha!)  Keep an eye on her.  Hot water in her path, and the Gulf beckons.  I'd truly hate to see a one-two punch on the Gulf Coast, but it's not out of possibility.

 

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10 hours ago, TQA said:

I am in Grenada sitting fat and happy on my mooring and I can tell you I don't like that big predicted jog to the south. It puts Grenada on the path if it keeps veering south. Hurricanes starting with I have previous for being unpredictable bitches/bastards. Remember Ivan it stayed south doing a number on Grenada despite forecasts then looped the loop when it hit the US.

I suppose I should trust the forecasters who are all saying that after the jog south normal behaviour will be resumed and it will curve north well clear of Grenada.

Now if I was in Antigua I would be worried. 

IVAN.gif

i was in cancun for ivan, not anywhere near the eye and it was a rough 24 hours to say the least. that thing was mean !

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21 minutes ago, TPG said:

Yikes.

Yikes is right. Could get a little bouncy in my slip. Think I'm going to see if my winter storage yard has a slip available, really snug spot in Three Mile Harbor. Too early?

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2 minutes ago, Sean said:

Yikes is right. Could get a little bouncy in my slip. Think I'm going to see if my winter storage yard has a slip available, really snug spot in Three Mile Harbor. Too early?

2 weeks out, but could get busy in a week or so. 3mile should be safe, always was when we lived there.

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17 minutes ago, TPG said:

2 weeks out, but could get busy in a week or so. 3mile should be safe, always was when we lived there.

Here is how it goes around here:

Might show up.....too early to do anything.

Might show up.....too early to do anything.

Might show up.....too early to do anything.

OMFG here she comes - all yards too busy hauling boats out to get to you, stores selling out of anchors, lines, and generators. I was on my boat getting ready to cast off and grab  a good hurricane mooring when my insurance company called asking if I wanted to haul out for Sandy (or maybe Irene??) at their expense. No thanks - all the yards are booked, too late now, and during Isabel all kinds of boats floated right back off the stands anyway.

 

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Would you coastal guys quit playing with your storms?   It's starting to mess with our mild Midwest weather.   Too gusty to haul and clean for my vacation, and far too windy to motor out on my backup motor.    Now you guys find a new one that may throw some gusts my way in a couple weeks?!

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11 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Here is how it goes around here:

Might show up.....too early to do anything.

Might show up.....too early to do anything.

Might show up.....too early to do anything.

OMFG here she comes - all yards too busy hauling boats out to get to you, stores selling out of anchors, lines, and generators. I was on my boat getting ready to cast off and grab  a good hurricane mooring when my insurance company called asking if I wanted to haul out for Sandy (or maybe Irene??) at their expense. No thanks - all the yards are booked, too late now, and during Isabel all kinds of boats floated right back off the stands anyway.

 

Around here its:

"Not gonna hit us"

"Not gonna hit us you're stupid"

"Not gonna hit us, more beer not docklines"

"OH MY GOD LOOK ITS A STORM DID I PAY MY INSURANCE HOLY CRAP WHAT DO WE DO"

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6 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

at201711_ensmodel.gif

 

One of these goes pretty much over my house and a couple more look to chew up most of the Caribbean in one go. An outlier is even pointed over towards Texas :o

Equal opportunity hurricane.  Something for every port.  Always hate storms that come up the western shore of the Chesapeake.  Lots of surge. 

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Advice to anybody hauling or hauled out, check your poppets, pull the rig if you can. My last boat, a Ranger 33, blew over in a freak windstorm. Wasn't pretty. 

Besides, the more prep work you do, the less likely you'll get hit by the storm!

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8 minutes ago, Sean said:

Advice to anybody hauling or hauled out, check your poppets, pull the rig if you can. My last boat, a Ranger 33, blew over in a freak windstorm. Wasn't pretty. 

Besides, the more prep work you do, the less likely you'll get hit by the storm!

Good advice. But in my experience, the damage to your boat will inevitably be caused by the ones next to it that the idiot owners did nothing to prepare.

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Quote

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/848958/Hurricane-Irma-track-2017-path-hit-Florida-USA-when-coming

Hurricane Irma track: Could Hurricane Irma hit Florida? When is storm coming?

By JON ROGERS
PUBLISHED: 19:44, Fri, Sep 1, 2017 | UPDATED: 21:48, Fri, Sep 1, 2017

This morning the hurricane had decreased to a category 2 storm but Irma is still proving to be problematic moving in a general west-northwest direction at 13mph and creating powerful winds of up to 110mph.

The National Hurricane Centre in Miami has said that Irma is fluctuating in strength but is expected to stay a powerful hurricane throughout the weekend.

Irma is proving to be hard to track and problematic for forecasters, however it is expected to take a turn to the south-southwest before turning again back to the north-northwest as a category 4 hurricane. Hurricane Irma could hit south Florida next week

Meteorological scientist Dr Michael Ventricle, at the University of Albany, said on his Twitter page: “It’s too early to know where Irma is headed. This storm could still sneak out to sea. One analysis of the hurricane’s projected path by Weatherbell Analytics varied from heading towards central Mexico to Irma almost doubling back on itself and heading back out northwards into the Atlantic.  Most predictions though have Irma hitting southern Florida and then heading along the eastern coast of the US and Canada, possibly hitting New York and Washington.

Fox News meteorologist Janice Dean said: "The models are trending towards perhaps curving away from the US,” but added Irma was coming "a little too close to comfort for the East Coast." So far no coastal watches or warnings were in effect but it was too early to determine if it would make landfall or pose a threat to the US.  Dr Ventrice has noticed a “slight” alteration in the movement of Irma, apparently moving away from the Gulf of Mexico and moving more towards the east coast.But he added: “Things can still change.”

He also added that it appeared the hurricane was increasing in intensity again, indicating the eye of the hurricane was expanding “with a ring of low brightness temperatures around it”.In a span of 12 hours on Thursday, Irma rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a 115-mph, Category 3 hurricane. In doing so, it became the season’s fourth hurricane and second major — Category 3 or stronger — hurricane.

 

yikes

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23 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

at201711_ensmodel.gif

 

One of these goes pretty much over my house and a couple more look to chew up most of the Caribbean in one go. An outlier is even pointed over towards Texas :o

The dot at 46N 64W is over our place too.

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Yikes! The red 'average' track looks really bad for Florida. There's no way to evacuate Miami-Dade, let alone the entire peninsula.  Fortunately, the storm is still many days away, and I think it may track further east.

 

image.jpg

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The models waver east of the FL coast to right up the coast line, and it seems as though she has some eye wall restructuring as she keeps going from cat 3 to cat 2 and then vice versa the next day.  She's a cat 3 now again.  Just came back from the store with the kids and preggo bowgirl wifey and they are out of cases of water already.  I'm hope she avoids the coast and doesn't run us over here in South Florida.

IMG_0225.PNG

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13 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

If Irma makes landfall in the US on September 11th, she will be the second major hurricane to hit on that date in the last 100 years.  Can you name the other one?

Carla, 1961

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I was a kid on the north side of Oahu when Iniki tore through the islands. I'll remember that for the rest of my life. And now here we are prepping for Irma in FL. Good times. 

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56 minutes ago, RKoch said:

Latest track has the bitch headed right to Florida. 

I really hate to hear that, haven't had time to even think about weather last couple days.  If you guys do get Irma la douched would you mind keeping it to yourself?  Some areas around here could be flooded for another 10 days.  Ain't nobody got time for that.

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2 hours ago, d'ranger said:

I really hate to hear that, haven't had time to even think about weather last couple days.  If you guys do get Irma la douched would you mind keeping it to yourself?  Some areas around here could be flooded for another 10 days.  Ain't nobody got time for that.

If that thing hits Miami and tracks north up the length of the peninsula it's going to be devastating. IDK if FEMA has resources to respond to two huge disasters, plus it will cause more devastation up into GA and the Carolinas. There's no way to evacuate Miami-Dade, let alone half the state. Best that can be done is to just get people off the barrier islands.  It'll definately overwhelm local response, IDK if state is even prepared. Another problem is that just a few hours difference in when the storm turns north means it goes up either coast or the middle of state...that'll make evacuation plans sketchy.

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2 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

 

irma-euro-hi-prob-ensemble-12Z-9.2.17.pn

 

The red line would have to be the most destructive hurricane I can ever remember. Jaysus!!!!!! :o:o

(there goes my boat insurance rate too as if that matters)

 

When the FAN hits your shit...

Who named it that?

Going shopping for building materials this week. My neighbor and I are building 5 homes. If we can get the stuff with which to build homes. He's talking about buying a shipping container just to fill with plywood, drywall, shingles, stuff like that that you can't find after a storm.

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Fuck me - 881 mbar forecast at landfall. 

"The barometric pressure measured in Wilma, 882 mbar (26.05 inHg), is currently the lowest recorded pressure for a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin, as well as the second-lowest pressure for any cyclone measured in the Western Hemisphere, only after Hurricane Patricia ten years later in the Eastern Pacific." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Wilma

IMG_4583.PNG

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another view from earth.nullschool.net has the track further south than what I am seeing from these posts? (correction, sean's post correlates)

 

source GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service. Also see whats following!

Screenshot 2017-09-04 13.44.09.png

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2 hours ago, Uncooperative Tom said:

 

When the FAN hits your shit...

Who named it that?

Going shopping for building materials this week. My neighbor and I are building 5 homes. If we can get the stuff with which to build homes. He's talking about buying a shipping container just to fill with plywood, drywall, shingles, stuff like that that you can't find after a storm.

Why are you building 5 homes, Tom?

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On 8/31/2017 at 11:14 AM, TQA said:

I am in Grenada sitting fat and happy on my mooring and I can tell you I don't like that big predicted jog to the south. It puts Grenada on the path if it keeps veering south. Hurricanes starting with I have previous for being unpredictable bitches/bastards. Remember Ivan it stayed south doing a number on Grenada despite forecasts then looped the loop when it hit the US.

I suppose I should trust the forecasters who are all saying that after the jog south normal behaviour will be resumed and it will curve north well clear of Grenada.

Now if I was in Antigua I would be worried. 

IVAN.gif

This is an official I TOLD YOU SO. 

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The Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba are all going to get pounded. Turks and Caicos, and Bahamas too.  Most recent forecast track has it side-swiping Hispaniola and Cuba a bit south of earlier track...the mountains should weaken the storm a little, at the cost of them seeing heavy rain. The Florida Keys are going to take a pounding...it takes quite a while to evacuate them so hopefully people are leaving now, and not waiting until the last minute. No real indication when the storm will turn north, but somewhere in Florida is likely to get hit. Worst case scenerio is mentioned above, with the storm going right up the east coast past GA and the Carolinas...somewhat like Matthew, but a Cat4.

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5 hours ago, billy backstay said:

Why are you building 5 homes, Tom?

The original plan was to rent and sell them, depending on which of the 5 you're talking about. Not so sure about the new plan.

The last time I got a call from the county saying my building permit was ready, I told them I'd pick it up next week because I was busy. That was the day before Charlie. No new construction was approved for months.

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58 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

I think the worst case would be for it to head west and hit Houston again.

I don't think this storm has the rainfall that Harvey did, but it certainly would hamper Harvey recovery if it hit Houston. 

Worst case for extensive damage is going north up either side of Florida peninsula, or hitting NOLA. 

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What are hurricane pre

33 minutes ago, LarryE said:

Putting up some shutters today. To hot to do many at onetime.

I vote we move hurricane season to Jan.

What are house hurricane preps?   I assume it is more then screwing plywood to the windows, moving the grill and lawn furniture inside, buying cans of food, candles and kayak?  

 

Edit.  Just googled all the roll down shutter options for people living down there.   All the stuff we used to use in the 'bad neighborhoods' when I was a kid are now painted nice and sole to southern coastal homeowners for storms.   

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27 minutes ago, Lark said:

What are hurricane pre

What are house hurricane preps?   I assume it is more then screwing plywood to the windows, moving the grill and lawn furniture inside, buying cans of food, candles and kayak?  

 

Edit.  Just googled all the roll down shutter options for people living down there.   All the stuff we used to use in the 'bad neighborhoods' when I was a kid are now painted nice and sole to southern coastal homeowners for storms.   

There's various metal shutters and coverings that are pretty good. Plywood is good, but it needs to be 1/2" or more to do any good...3/4" is much better. Big problem with plywood is its weight. Taping windows does nothing. Reinforcing garage door is good...if nothing else back up the garaged vehicle to the door to add support.  Yea, picking up yard furniture and potted plants. Good time to trim tree limbs. If in flood prone area, sandbagging doors helps a little. 

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I have metal panels. Had them in Miami for Andrew also. Quite heavy but worth the effort.

It's very hot today 95 and very humid.

The 7.9 goes on the trailer Thursday AM and then inside.

After that it's help at the YC. Had our annual ladies regatta planned for this weekend. Don't think it will happen.

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17 minutes ago, sailwriter said:

It may impact the 120+ boat 505 World's in Annapolis starting 9/20. I'm on rescue duty. May be busy!         Dave Ellis

That's two weeks out, should be long gone by then.

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Ah, but the infrastructure effect. At the 2016 Tampa Bay NOOD my toughest task was keeping an eye out for debris from the Pier deconstruction. Largest was a 2x14x20' timber just missing the Sonar/ Lightning course and drifting toward the A-Cat's. After storms, lots of floaters, including entire docks.

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1848, 1921, 2018? Tampa Bay is rated most at risk if a major hits, especially if going ashore from the gulf and just north of the entrance of the bay.  

Hey, I just moved to the mountains of north Alabama on huge Lake Guntersville. Good timing?

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This will be my  tenth hurricane.

I moved to central east Fl. because the chance of storms was less. This will be the forth since I have been  here, if we get this one.

Miami has one since Ieft

nota has some very good advise, some of his don'ts, I learned the hard way.

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While you fine Southern gentlemen are preparing for more mass destruction I've been spending the free part of a weekend on call waxing and prepping a trailer sailor for a jaunt to the salt free north coast.    Winds 7-20, gusts to 30 and 83 degrees up here.    Good luck.   

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1 hour ago, LarryE said:

I'm not convinced that the Fl. West Coast is off the hook on this one.

Nope. Where it hits florida will vary widely, based on a few hours difference when and where it turns north. All of Florida needs to be watching closely. Hurricane Charley was heading north to hit near Tampa Bay Area, and made just a small track change and hit Charlotte Harbor, about 90 miles south.

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46 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

1'4 " is plenty....when properly doubled @ fastening points.....

No it's not. A shingle will go right through 1/4" plywood driven by a 100+ mph wind. 

 

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Yes, RKoch. Steve Colgate had his new Hunter for Offshore Sailing School, with shrink wrap still on the hatches, quickly moved from St. Pete south to Captiva, South Seas Resort. Then Charlie turned to go right overhead. Apparently we all did a good job "spidering" the 6 Colgate 26s and 2 Hunters. Two masts broken, probably from flying trees. Whew.   Dave Ellis

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Mark Dry Uv and others what are your thoughts on S side of St Thomas? Son lives there, he still running dive trips through tomorrow AM. Owners did call off afternoon trips so they could prep. Seems to keep drifting farther S every forecast run since last night.

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13 hours ago, Uncooperative Tom said:

 

When the FAN hits your shit...

Who named it that?

Going shopping for building materials this week. My neighbor and I are building 5 homes. If we can get the stuff with which to build homes. He's talking about buying a shipping container just to fill with plywood, drywall, shingles, stuff like that that you can't find after a storm.

I have a 20'er that I'll sell to you cheap...... The price rises as the week progresses.... ;)

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31 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

I refuse to build my window shields ,and i have 32 double hungs, .... to ridiculous impractical standards,  take a hammer to a 1/4" piece of plywood and tell me how long it takes...  hurricanes are broad blunt trauma ...not every window will be impaled by a 90 degree impact for whatever example your perception is shaped around  

I have a photo I'll find of 2x4s sticking through the side of the pet shop building from our Kent Island storm a few weeks ago :o

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My wife called her folks today to encourage them to get their local help in Jupiter to get their storm shutters out of storage and think about getting them up on the house by the end of the week.  They came through Matthew last year with no issues (thank goodness), and they won't be on site for this one, either.

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14 hours ago, RKoch said:

There's various metal shutters and coverings that are pretty good. Plywood is good, but it needs to be 1/2" or more to do any good...3/4" is much better. Big problem with plywood is its weight. Taping windows does nothing. Reinforcing garage door is good...if nothing else back up the garaged vehicle to the door to add support.  Yea, picking up yard furniture and potted plants. Good time to trim tree limbs. If in flood prone area, sandbagging doors helps a little. 

Just about all half inch ply shutters in my old neighborhood were torn off by Andrew. They start to flutter then disintegrate around the attachment points.

3/4" stayed put.

I'm off to buy up all the tarps that remain for sale in the county in a few minutes, then going to one of our rentals to put up the (heavy, PITA) 3/4" shutters.

Also writing an email to tenants in rental properties suggesting that getting hit by a hurricane when you have a working car is an extremely stupid mistake that I made ONCE and will NEVER make again. My best friend has agreed to host 4 of us (and 9 animals) up in N FL. Not looking forward to that other than seeing my friend but anything beats sitting there wondering when your house will finish falling apart.

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Only big tarps left at Ace, open at 7:30.  15% of customers yesterday were getting supplies.  TS over at Cruising Anarchy is probably already finished with his prep.

Off to Englewood Beach in  a bit to cover up the mother in laws place and convince the tenants that they really need to take a vacation back to their place in Ohio.  

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9 hours ago, Rule69 said:

As pointed out by Sean, these discussions are worth watching:

 

Levi - 

"This is no joke this hurricane, this is a bad one"

 
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